Trade Speculator - Tribe Talk

Mark Shapiro churned out another couple of trades over the weekend and maintains his position as one of the most crafty General Managers in baseball. Unfortunately Shapiro does not maintain that confidence for extended periods of time, and consequently, is left letting quality players leave town for a pittance. Without reflecting upon those players and some questionable free agent signings, which subsequently tarnishes the job Shapiro has done in Cleveland, I will look only at what Shapiro does right.

In the first of two trades, Shapiro and the Indians send Cleveland fan favorite, utility man Casey Blake to the Los Angeles Dodgers for minor leaguers Jon Meloan and Carlos Santana. At this point, the Indians season is all but done. Even if the club still has a solid run or two left, Blake wouldn't be the difference between that run and finishing in last place.

Casey Blake, 'the ultimate professional' was never a favorite of mine. He was a valuable player in that he could play multiple positions and was apparently a good clubhouse guy. At 35, and with an expiring contract, this was a move the Indians needed to make. In fact, I had always wondered why the team used him in such a consistent manner, rather then making him a true utility sub.

To date, Blake has had arguably the best statistical season of his career. While the power has fallen in recent years, Blake is posting a career high on base percentage and is sitting just shy of his career high in on base plus slugging.

The big change for Blake has been his ability to hit left handed hitters. The biggest improvement has been seen in his contact rate, although it is uncertain whether that rate is statistically significant enough to sustain is uncertain, the fact remains that the Dodgers acquired a player that will help the club.

To what extent, is unknown. The Dodgers, however, will now have one of the worst defensive infields in the majors, and will be greatly affected by that. This takes the club out of the market for an offensive player and did so at a relatively cheap cost.

The cost, two players the team can afford to be without for the long and short term. The club is set at catcher for the foreseeable future with Russell Martin. The second player, a starter/reliever is more organizational depth then a true asset. Considering the Dodgers rotation and bullpen situation, the player will not be missed.

The first of those players, Carlos Santana, a 22 year old switch hitting catcher, whom the Indians extensively looked at during the CC Sabathia negotiations. Clearly during these negotiations Shapiro liked what Santana brought to the table, and the young hitter has continued to produce increasing his power stats each month while maintaining quality walk and strikeout rates.

An interesting comparison comes to mind with Santana, and that is the player Santana is projected to replace in a little over two years. Victor Martinez posted an OPS of .882 as a 22 year old backstop for Cleveland's high A affiliate in Kinston. Santana's OPS, despite hitting in a somewhat more favorable league and ballpark, is .983.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus reflects upon the future of Carlos Santana. In May, he stated that despite a weak batting line as a 21 year old in A ball in 2007, scouts came away impressed with Santana's 'raw skills'. According to Goldstein,

"For me, that's an everyday catcher," said the scout. "He's a good hitter from both sides and he's strong--there's some juice in his bat." Defensively, Santana also earns high marks: "The arm is great, and will be even better with some improved mechanics. He's a little raw behind the dish, but he certainly has the athleticism to get better."

Carlos Santana is pretty much on par with a catching prospect the Indians moved last season and is seemingly a fair comparison to make. Maximiliano Ramirez had his first cup of coffee with the Rangers this season and while he didn't take the league by storm, for his first shot of things as a 23 year old, he more then held his own.

The second player the Indians acquired is 23 year old right handed starter, reliever, starter, and now reliever Jonathan Meloan. Word has it, the Indians will use Meloan as a reliever in triple A, a role he has more then excelled in the previous two seasons. Over the previous two seasons, Meloan has put up a rate of 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

Goldstein rated Meloan as a 3 star prospect entering this season, and as a 'good' prospect entering last season. Entering this season, Goldstein had the following to say about Meloan,

The Good: Meloan gets outs by using his low-90s sinker early in the count to set up his plus-plus slider, which is a true wipeout offering that he's equally effective throwing for strikes or using as a chase pitch. He also occasionally mixes in a curveball to change hitters' eye level, and he brings a late-inning intensity to every outing.
The Bad: Nothing Meloan does is pretty. He's not athletic, and his mechanics are rough, with a lot of moving parts. His future is in relief only, but his stuff likely falls a bit short of closer-worthy due to his velocity.

Similar praise was given by Goldstein entering the 2007 season,

The Good: Brought back very slowly from elbow soreness in the spring, the power righthander dominated out of the bullpen by striking out 91 and walking just 16 in 52 innings spread across three levels. His two-pitch arsenal consists of 92-94 mph fastball that he can reach back and hit 97 with, and a spike curveball that one scout classifies as "a sinking monster."
The Bad: Meloan's injury history leaves him as a bit of an unproven commodity, as he was pitching two-to-three inning stints on four days' rest during most of the season, so we're unsure as to whether or not he has the ability to maintain his stuff on shorter notice. He was used at a more normal pace in the Arizona Fall League, and still dominated. He struggles with control at times.

Truly, durability is the only real issue with Meloan. It will be interesting to see how quick the Indians are to call him up.

Comparatively, John Sickels of Minor League Ball is slightly more optimistic for Meloan rating the reliever as a B prospect the last two years. In addition to this, Sickels rated Meloan in his top 50 pitching prospects the last two seasons, and as recent as last year tabbed him as the 'top closing prospect' in baseball. I believe the Indians could use a closer soon.

While the Dodgers did not give up much, and should be fine without both players, they also did not receive much in return. It seems, from my perspective, that the Indians received a substantial haul for a player that was blocking the Indians from evaluating what they have. Trading Blake means that Andy Marte, Ryan Garko, Shin-Soo Choo, and Franklin Gutierrez will all receive extended looks, and the Indians can decide the best plan of action for 2009 and beyond.

Thus, I am going to give this trade to Mark Shapiro and the Indians. Although, if the Dodgers flip Andy LaRoche for an upgrade elsewhere, this trade will look a little better for Los Angeles. I wonder if the Dodgers would be content grabbing Jason Bay for LaRoche and Andre Ethier.


In the second trade of Friday, Shapiro added another ex-top prospect pitcher, Anthony Reyes, from the St. Louis Cardinals for minor league reliever Luis Perdomo. It would be interesting to hear how much the arrival of Meloan influenced Shapiro to pay what the Cardinals were asking for Reyes.

This is an outstanding trade by Shapiro. While Perdomo has shown flashes of excellence, starting pitchers are substantially more valuable.

Anthony Reyes was once an outstanding prospect. The last two seasons Reyes was eligible to be rated (2005 and 2006), John Sickels named Reyes as the top prospect in the Cardinals organization, tabbing him as a B+ prospect.

Reyes owns an average strikeout rate and an average walk rate. Although for some reason he has been extremely hittable. PECOTA has always loved Reyes, this season he was projected for 72 strikeouts in 60 innings. But even with that strikeout rate, the projection system called for 1.5+ hits per inning. Quite the quagmire.

According to Fan Graphs PitchFX data Reyes' fastball regressed from 91.4mph to 89.6mph from 2005 to 2007. For a pitcher who throws well over 60% of his pitches as fastballs, sitting in the high 80's is a tough situation. However, this season has seen Reyes' fastball average 92.1mph, albeit in limited major league action.

The cost for Reyes, 24 year old right handed reliever Luis Perdomo. Perdomo absolutely tore the Carolina League apart this season, allowing only 19 hits in 39 innings. In those 39 innings he allowed only 6 runs (4 earned).

While slightly old for his level of competition, there is no denying Perdomo's stuff. The reliever owns a mid 90s fastball and a somewhat deceptive delivery (see video below).




The age issue is not a major one in my opinion. Perdomo was signed as a 19 year old out of the Dominican Republic. The Indians kept him in the Dominican Republic until 2006, despite some relatively impressive numbers for their summer league team (2005 - 3-2 with seven saves and a 3.57 ERA in 23 games; 2004 - Went 4-2 with six saves and a 1.35 ERA in 25 games; and 2003 - Was 1-0 with one save and a 4.35 ERA in 14 games). I can see Perdomo with the Cardinals big league team at some point this season.

The major worry from my perspective is that the Cardinals were willing to let Anthony Reyes go for a relatively modest price. If pitching coach Dave Duncan felt he could turn Reyes around, he wouldn't have allowed this trade to go through. However, there is another scenario. With Reyes about to be out of options, the Cardinals may have felt that moving him today would net more in return then when their back is against the wall.

All that being said, the Indians again take the cake with this trade. The club's triple A rotation in Buffalo is a fairly exciting one, boasting three ex-top prospects Zach Jackson, Bryan Bullington, and now Reyes. Minor League Baseballs best skate punk singer Scott Radinsky has his hands full trying to turn the three pitchers into something decent, or at least fixing their respective confidence levels.


Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus wrote the following to sum up the Indians moves,

The other major upshot of this deal is that it represents Andy Marte's last best chance to have a career as somebody's third baseman, starting now. He'd already drawn 11 of the last 15 starting assignments at the hot corner, so this was already something the Tribe was actively reviewing. Since he's hitting .267/.327/.511 in his July playing time—just under half of his total at-bats for the season, and a reflection on how much time he'd been cooling his heels on the bench on a team replete with hitting problems—it's fair to say that this is not only something that won't make any negative impact on the Tribe's current fortunes, it's almost certain to be an improvement, on this season and into the future.

In summation, these were two very good deals for the Indians. Meloan's more advanced than Perdomo, so in terms of exchanging one future reliever for another, they helped themselves in the near-term while adding a starting pitcher prospect most would take their chances on and a premium catching prospect. Add in the opportunity they're going to get to give to Marte, something that will tell them whether or not they have an answer or need to start looking for one, and it's a great bit of turning the page and adding talent to an organization that's already working on ways to contend next year in the wake of this year's disappointments.

Trade Speculator - Yankees & Pirates

According to Baseball Digest Daily, the Yankees have agreed to send Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, Phil Coke, and George Kontos to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. It is sounding as if the non-waiver deadline is going to be a busy one. Although many of the big names reported to be on the block have moved, it sounds as if a lot of teams are not done shopping.

Update - Coke and Kontos have been removed from this deal in favor of Jeff Karstens and Dan McCutchen. This hurts the package the Pirates received. Both Coke and Kontos were pitchers worth getting excited about.

The Yankees brought in two pieces that will help them for the 2008 season adding veteran players to replace some of the youth and inexperience the club had. Not knowing where Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui will slot into the Yankees lineup down the stretch, or if they will, the Yankees felt the need to chase after one of the most highly sought after bats.

Xavier Nady has had an outstanding season. Forever being a player of promise, the 29 year old outfielder has put it altogether this season in a statistically legitimate season. Two major things have led to the renaissance season of Nady are his strikeout and line drive rates. Owning the lowest strikeout rate of his career, Nady is making more frequent contact-never a bad thing. In addition to this, Nady has line drive rate go up a second straight season to an outstandingly high 26.5%. Solid contact rate leads to solid contact which invariably helps a hitter reach base safely.

The second player, Damaso Marte, is a veteran left handed pitcher with an affordable contract. Marte was a highly sought after pitcher in recent weeks, the Yankees will presumably use him more as a situational lefty-the only lefty in their bullpen. Marte is a strong arm and should only add to the bullpen.

According to Ken Rosenthal, Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman had been talking to Pittsburgh about Marte for a few days prior to the trade. It was only on Friday when Nagy entered the discussions. I wonder what the trade looked like prior to that?

In exchange for Nady and Marte, the Pirates brought in four prospects, only one of whom had any value prior to the start of the season. It does appear as though Neil Huntington has a plan, so it doesn't come as much of a surprise that he chose players that are further along in development over players with slightly higher ceilings.

Beginning with Ross Ohlendorf, the Pirates received a pitcher whom they can immediately use out of the bullpen, if they so choose. Ohlendorf is going to be 26 in a little over a week, and the right handed pitcher needs to find his spot in the majors soon. Armed with a hard fastball that averages 93mph, Ohlendorf compliments this pitch with a slider he isn't afraid to use. His long term projection sees him as a reliever, hopefully that helps him remain healthy.

As a key piece of the trade which sent Randy Johnson to the Diamondbacks, Ohlendorf has regularly shown up on John Sickels prospect rankings, sitting as a C+ prospect. Nothing overly exciting.

Daniel McCutchen is another soon to be 26 year old with limited upside. He is right handed and is capable of eating innings. It sounds as if he too is seen as a long term reliever. Armed with a low 90s fastball, a splitter, and a good curve, his progress through the minor leagues have been impressive due to his pro career beginning 3 years ago.

Another, not overly impressive player, fellow 'soon to be' 26 year old Jeff Karstens. The right hander was given a shot at helping the Yankees rotation last season, and failed in his three starts. The Yankees then used him out of the bullpen where he was equally as bad. 2008 represents the third season in which Karstens has pitched at triple A.

Karstens appeared on Sickels' 2007 Yankees prospect list as a 'just missed'. Not a good sign for an organization that had two C level prospects make the cut. In other words, we're not talking much of anything here.

The final player, and truly the only player the Pirates were truly interested in, Jose Tabata. The 2008 season has been one in which has seen Tabata's stock drop. He was rated by many as a top 50 prospect overall, a rating which was more reflective of his age then performance. I had rated Tabata in my top 10, citing that the Yankees would treat him properly.

While I may have been mistaken in suggesting the Yankees have treated him properly, the organization certainly has not hurt the kid. At age 19 he is more then holding his own in double A. To date, Tabata has shown an excellent approach at the plate, although his power has yet to develop.

John Sickels has rated Tabata as high as an A-, and most recently saw him as a B+ prospect. Much of this is due to Tabata's inability to display power as he moves through the minors. Sickels, however, comments that Tabata has an advanced feel for the strike zone, something that I view as being more important then showing early power-see Brandon Wood.

When comparing Tabata with the Mets young outfield prospect, Sickels suggested that both will be 'stars', although he does not comment on the extent of stardom for each player. One thing that worries Sickels is Tabata's size, which does not help his power projection.

Additionally, there have been recent concerns regarding Tabata's conditioning and makeup. While it wouldn't surprise me if Tabata was intentionally bulking up, the concerns about his makeup raise red flags. Although at 19 years old, I am willing to give him a pass on that.

According to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Tabata's swing-the same one that generated concern regarding power potential-looks even worse this season and is a legitimate cause for concern.

Enough of the negative, Kevin Goldstein had the following to say about Tabata entering this season, while rating him as a 4 star prospect:

The Good: Tabata is a gifted hitter with outstanding bat speed and hand-eye coordination, showing the ability to hit any pitch, anywhere, from both lefties and righties. He’s an average runner and a good right fielder with the arm strength for the position. He plays under control and with a confidence far beyond his years.

In addition to this, it sounds as if Tabata can be a more then adequate right fielder, posing decent speed and a strong arm.

At the beginning of this season, I called for Tabata to be a future Bobby Abreu. I liked the way Tabata could take a walk at such a young age, while keeping his strikeouts down. However, his power looks very limited, and we are presumably looking at a hitter with under 20 home runs and a sub .420 slugging percentage. That said, I think Xavier Nady and Andre Ethier pose as superior comparables.


Had this trade been made in March, April, or even early May, the Pirates would have went down as the undeniable winners. While acquiring Tabata is a very nice piece, and projecting exactly what type of hitter he will become is very difficult at this point, his stock has taken such a hit, that it is interesting to see him as the cornerstone of any trade. An outfield of Tabata and Andrew McCutchen should be nice to build around, however lacking legitimate power.

The three pitchers the Pirates acquired are at a 'take or leave' level. One would almost think that there are equal to better pitchers that pass through waivers, get non-tendered, etc. This trade then, was entirely about Tabata, and making room for the future in Pittsburgh. Hitters such as Steve Pearce (called up) and the aforementioned McCutchen.

The Yankees are the winners of this deal. Cashman filled two holes on the roster with cheap and established players. While Tabata should turn into a regular, a quality one at that, he probably isn't a player that the Yankees will look back at and regret not holding onto. Additionally, Nady and Marte are players whom the Yankees will look back on and recognize how much they brought to the club for the stretch run.

This trade, coupled with the Rauch trade a few days earlier, signals the end of the 'sellers' market and transfers the trade deadline to a 'buyers' market. That is, a buyer can now send one prospect of worth and some throw-ins for two cheap and solid players.

Trade Speculator - Minor Moves

I suppose the title of this entry is not entirely true as both moves involved players who should have a fairly decent impact on their teams. Whether the players are responsible for making or breaking the seasons of their respective clubs is yet to be seen. Rather, the reason this entry is titled 'Minor Moves' is due to the relative obscurity of these trades. How they came about and the surprisingly quick nature of the moves.

The first move I will discuss, is the San Diego Padres trade of Randy Wolf to the Houston Astros for minor league right hander Chad Reineke. The Padres continue to clean house and rid themselves of any player who doesn't have much of a future with the club. Interestingly, the 5th place Astros, who are over 10 games out for the wild card, entered into the 'buyers' market.

Adding Randy Wolf will not hurt the Astros and will certainly lessen the blow of the loss of Roy Oswalt. Does this enter the Astros into the playoff race? Certainly not. But the cost was minimal and provides the Astros with some above average innings. At worst, this stirs the pot in the National League and possibly causes a team to miss the playoffs that should have been in it-think the 2007 Mets. The cost will be slightly under $2M for this rental.

There are two best case scenarios in my opinion. The first, and most likely, the Astros let Wolf walk at the end of the season and receive compensation for him based on the thinking that Wolf will at least be a type B free agent. This can also help build good will with the Houston fan base, as the front office can claim to 'having gone for it' by acquiring Wolf.

The second scenario, although it negates the 'gone for it' claim, places the Astros in a position to be a seller over the next 8 days. Anything can happen between now and July 31st. Another team could discover that they are one pitcher away, or simply want to add depth and offer more then the Astros gave up. There are a lot of teams that could use another starting pitcher, and many of those should not have the goods to go after AJ Burnett or Erik Bedard. Thus, Wolf is the best of the next tier of pitchers that are speculated to be available.

In return for Wolf, the Padres add Chad Reineke, a 26 year old right handed pitcher who hasn't been outstanding during his professional career, however he also hasn't been terrible.

According to Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, Reineke entered the 2008 season as the Astros 6th best prospect. However, keep in mind that speaks more to the terrible system that the Astros possess then the overall ability of Reineke as Goldstein rates the pitcher as a '2 star' prospect. I will ignore the negative Goldstein writes about, as much of them were referencing Reineke the starter. Goldstein had the following praise to offer about Reineke,

The Good: Reineke has a solid fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 93-94 at times. He primarily uses it to set up a plus slider that has nice two-plane break, which Reineke uses as an out pitch. He has a big durable body, and maintains his velocity late into games when he starts. He has a good pickoff move and controls the running game well.

A nice fastball combined with a plus slider is a solid combination for any pitcher. Most starters would benefit from adding another above average pitch, or two. However, at 26, nobody is going to confuse Reineke for his high ceiling as a starter, rather, he projects long term as a reliever. This is presumably the pitcher the Padres feel they are picking up. Moving Reineke to the bullpen full time may add a mile or two to his fastball. Combined with a 'herky jerky' delivery, Reineke might come as quite the bargain for the Padres as a legitimate bullpen option.

At the very least, the Padres can bank the remaining money they would have spent on Wolf and use it this offseason. Possibly, Reineke turns into Chris Young, and benefits from being a fly ball pitcher with plus stuff at PETCO.

Unfortunately I have to name a winner and a loser. For the time being, the Padres are the winners as they cut costs and add some decent potential. If Wolf turns into a type B free agent or is flipped in the next week for a superior prospect then Reineke, the Astros win. I hope I don't show up in google searches under 'Astros win'.


The second transaction, and substantially less confusing, saw the Washington Nationals move closer Jon Rauch to the Arizona Diamondbacks for middle infielder Emilio Bonifacio. Before even looking closer into this deal, I have to grade the Diamondbacks as the obvious winner in this trade, this, despite really liking Bonifacio and really disliking Rauch.

Jon Rauch is an absolute steal of a player to acquire. Owed about $5M over the next 2+ seasons, Rauch's durability and decent to strong numbers over his career is enough to make him an excellent acquisition. It is additionally surprising that a team like the Nationals would feel the cheap Rauch (who is a monster of a man) would be an expendable piece. However, maybe Bowden dislikes O'Dowd and did this trade to drive down the value of Brian Fuentes.

Coming over to the Diamondbacks, Rauch immediately improves the clubs bullpen for the short and long term. He adds a pitcher who can be used in any relief mode and makes a somewhat weak and shallow bullpen into a strong and deep one. Just like that! I can see the Diamondbacks going to a closer by committee, but that does not lessen the value of the trade for the club.

When I first heard that Emilio Bonifacio was the player the Nationals were receiving in return for Rauch, I was startled. I had thought Bonifacio's presence is what made Alberto Callaspo expendable during last year's Hot Stove League. However, it appears as though the Diamondbacks did not see much of a future for Bonifacio within the organization.

The Nationals receive an unpolished 23 year old with blazing speed. However, Bonifacio needs to develop a lot of plate discipline and greatly improve his walk rate before being considered a quality every day major leaguer. At this point, he'd make the perfect compliment for Ronnie Belliard, how are people against cloning with that sort of creation? (note: this creation only applies if it does not own Belliard's tongue)

John Sickels of Minor League Ball ("DOT COM!") rated Bonifacio as a C+ entering this season, although one could argue that this rating is reflective of the depth of the Arizona system. That is, the distance from the top to the bottom is far greater for Arizona, then it is for the Phillies. However, agreeing with this rating, Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus rated Bonifacio as a '2 star' prospect, citing his lack of power and inability to take a walk as the rational. In other words, Bonifacio ranks favorably with Darren Ford-the outfielder the Giants received for Ray Durham.

In all, the Nationals had no real reason to make this trade. Rauch has got to have substantially more value then this given how strong he has been in the closers role this season. He is relatively young, durable, and cheap. It is hard to believe teams were not lining up to acquire him. That is, with the Giants-Brewers trade in mind, a reliever of Rauch's value should net a substantial amount more then Durham. Bowden didn't get more.

Thus, the Diamondbacks are the clear winners of this trade. Outside of Bonifacio turning into a top of the order regular, who more then holds his own in the field, this trade lacks a lot of direction and understanding from my point of view.

Adam Miller Watch - An Update

Once Adam Miller's injury had been rediagnosed as a hole in his skin, which could have led to major infection issues, and it was thus surgery was required. This is said to be the same injury that Miller suffered during the Arizona Fall League, however it clearly went in the worst direction possible.

There hasn't been a lot of information released to date on the injury or Miller's recovery from it. But at the point of surgery, Miller was said to be out of pitching related activities for 8 weeks, which we are rapidly approaching.

A week ago, Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus, briefly mentioned Adam Wainwright's injured pulley tendon. Although this is a slightly different injury, where surgery was not required to reattach the tendon, we can use some of the information regarding Wainwright to let us know what's going on with Miller-which undeniably will go with substantially less fan fare, the result of being an oft-injury minor leaguer, and pitching for the small market, and losing, Indians team.

Understand that Miller will presumably take longer to return from this injury. Not only because he underwent surgery, but also because the Indians are in a position to be extra careful with their prized pitching prospect. Additionally, Wainwright is vital to the Redbirds making noise in down the stretch.

With that understood, over the weekend, reports are suggesting that Wainwright is about a week from throwing off of a mound. At which point, Wainwright would be between two and four weeks from returning to the rotation, dependent on how quickly the Cardinals need him in the rotation-although it wouldn't surprise me to see him work out of the bullpen.

Altogether, that is about nine to ten weeks that Wainwright would have been on the shelf. This, with a throwing program that could be relatively vigorous, and began in the middle of July.

All that being understood, I figure to hear that Miller has begun throwing from a short distance at the Indians Spring Training facility (whether it be the new one, or old one I couldn't even guess). At which point, it would probably be another three weeks before Miller was throwing off of a mound, and a total of five weeks before he faces live hitters. At best, Miller could be pitching in a game situation by September 1st.

With how the Indians are playing, it wouldn't surprise me to see them try him in the bullpen once the rosters expand in September. Either that, or for Miller to get a couple of starts, simply to build up his arm for the following season, where he will be expected to contribute to the rotation.


As always, I am looking for information regarding this injury. In a recent Hey Hoynsie at the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Paul Hoynes guessed that the next time Indians fans will get to see Miller pitch, will be during the Arizona Instructional League.

Trade Speculator - Clubhouse Warriors

The Trade Speculator returns to reflect upon two trades that have occurred since the end of the All Star Break. Both trades were relatively small deals, but both will have a valuable enough impact on their respective teams to make them worth discussing.

On July 17th, the Arizona Diamondbacks reacquired Tony Clark from the San Diego Padres in exchange for minor league league pitcher Evan Sribner.

Paul DePodesta, a special assistant for the Padres, wrote his opinion of the trade, an interesting read. According to this entry, DePodesta states that the Padres have been looking at the young pitcher since early this season. So much goes on in baseball that none of us have any idea about.

In my opinion, the Padres did excellent here. They signed Tony Clark for under a million dollars to start this season. While Clark has not been the most outstanding player this season, he has performed at a level slightly above replacement, which is fine for the cost. However, the Padres knew when they signed Clark that the investment was minimal, with the reward being substantial. Giving such a small contract to a veteran player like Clark, a player who is known around the league for being a good clubhouse guy, someone teams look to during this time of year, the signing was an easy one to make.

That the Padres flipped Clark for a prospect only further elevates the value of this preseason signing.

In return, the Padres received 2007 28th round pick Evan Scribner. Scribner played four years for Central Connecticut State University, mostly as a starter. At CCSU, Scribner had a fairly decent career, albeit against weak competition. During his four years there, Scribner posted the following numbers:

WHIP	1.32
K/9	7
K/BB	3.93
ERA	3.34
BAA	0.261
SLGA	0.353

Not terrible numbers, but it explains why he wasn't selected until the 28th round. As a college senior, he didn't have any negotiating leverage, which also could have caused a slight fall at the draft.

Scribner recently turned 23 years old and has had a fairly successful run through the Padres minor leagues. Reaching high A this season Scribner has had a decent amount of success at every level. Keep in mind, however, that the majority of his opponents have been substantially younger and less experienced. However, keeping his walk rate down while racking up strikeouts is a good sign at any age, at any level.

His college strikeout to walk ratio would put him well above league average in that category among Major League pitchers. It isn't impossible to believe that the rate he has posted to date during his professional career wouldn't maintain, or at least come close to this long term.

The scouting reports on Scribner say the same things, a 90mph fastball which tops out around 92 with gusts of wind. He has a 'slow looping' curve, although this doesn't sound as if it is coming off as a positive. Most importantly, Scribner can hit the strike zone.

This isn't the kind of report that makes a person gush, nor will it ever land Scribner on anyones top prospect lists, but he could develop into an adequate major league reliever. Presumably not one with an overly important job. More information should be released about Scribner this offseason.

Overall, I like what the Padres have done here. The cost was minimal, even though the current reward is minimal. That said, it's not as if the Diamondbacks broke the bank here, so overall there isn't a winner or a loser.

However, the Diamondbacks new first base platoon of Chad Tracy and Clark forces Conor Jackson out of position and limits the possibility of the Diamondbacks making a trade for an impact corner outfield bat. But their clubhouse will be strong and thus improves their chances of winning, right?


On July 20th, the Giants agreed to send Ray Durham to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Darren Ford and Steve Hammond. Similar to the Diamondbacks-Padres trade I just examined, this was a team that is out of it, moving an expiring contract for prospects.

My first reaction to this trade was that this trade will immediately help the Brewers. I then became curious as to what 'type' of free agent Ray Durham will be after this season. Given that the Brew Crew are very unlikely to resign the second basemen, it is of major consideration whether Durham will be rated as a type A or B free agent this offseason.

With the free agent depth at second base for this upcoming season, it appears as if Durham will slot in as a type B free agent. This is definitely part and parcel with what the Brewers gave up as they could conceivably end up as gaining on this trade. For now, I will look at what the Brewers currently received.

Ray Durham adds a veteran switch hitter, who prior to this season, had been a superior hitter against lefties then righties. In other words, the Brewers did nothing to improve their current issues against righties. The Brewers are only on the hook for half of Durham's remaining contract, which will cost them about $1.5M.

With others rumored to be available, it seems more as if the Brewers acted quickly rather then getting the best deal out there.

However, it is not as if the Brewers were selling assets which had much, if any, future within the organization. Considering that the corner outfield spots are manned for years to come with Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and while the player the Brewers moved projects long term as a center fielder, we aren't talking about a major change to the overall appearance of this club.

That prospect, Darren Ford, a speedy 22 year old outfield prospect who has been in high A this season, a level he spent much of 2007 at. There truly is not enough one can say about the speed Darren Ford displays as he ranked as the #3 base runner in 2006 and in the top 20 for 2007 according to Baseball Prospectus.

Drawing a sufficient amount of walks to be a major league regular-if not at least a strong 4th outfielder-Ford's major weakness is his inability to make contact. One would think as a 22 year old, repeating this level of baseball, that Ford would be making strides, however, that is not the case, and Ford has the highest strikeout rate of his career (11.8%). That he has shown little to no power only adds emphasis to his inability to control the strike zone.

While still young, with Aaron Rowand around until the end of the 2012 season, Ford has ample time to improve at the plate and at least cut down on the strikeouts. Possibly Rowand can teach Ford a thing or two during Spring Training.

Additionally, the Giants received Steve Hammond, a pitcher who took approximately TWO full seasons to conquer double A. I use the word 'conquer' lightly, as Hammond was hardly deserving of a promotion after his 26th birthday this season.

What little information available about Hammond suggests that he won't be anything more then a 5th starter in a rotation, and even expecting that much out of him is a stretch. The numbers don't lie.

John Sickels at Minor League Ball has rated Hammond as a C, C+, and a C prospect over the last three respective seasons. Two of the instances, Sickels mentions Hammond as a victim of organizational depth. In a third, Sickels calls him an 'underrated arm to watch'.

There are also signs which point to Hammond becoming a reliever. In one report, an author cited a K rate which drops as Hammond goes further into a game. In another piece, Hammond is cited as having neither plus stuff, nor control, lacking an out pitch and velocity. At best, we're talking a project for the Giants.

The Giants come out of this trade with two projects and $1.5M in the bank. This also opens up the roster to allow youngsters Emmanuel Burriss and Eugenio Velez some additional playing time-both should be the Opening Day starters for the Giants in 2009 and offer a nice, young middle infield.

I wonder, however, if the Giants could have received slightly more, while eating the entire contract.

Overall, unlike at Brew Crew Ball, I have to suggest that the Brewers took this deal. Durham is a fine veteran to have on the roster and will offer a bat off the bench that can provide a little pop, with a decent amount of walks. The cost, $1.5M and two prospects which wouldn't have much impact on the team anyways.


The trade market is wide open. There are a lot of buyers and teams still deciding whether they are buyers or sellers. This ought to be one of the more interesting deadline days in recent memory.

Trade Speculator - Did Anyone See That Coming?

At least at this point?

Baseball Digest Daily is reporting that the Oakland Athletics have traded Joe Blanton to the Philadelphia Phillies for minor leaguers Adrian Cardenas, Matt Spencer, and Josh Outman. This is a trade that I truly cannot understand from the Oakland Athletics perspective. Not because of the haul they received, but rather, because of the value of Blanton. That is, Blanton is clearly having the worst season of his Major League career, which one would think would limit his current value.

All that being said, let's look at this deal more closely to discover what both teams were acquiring and giving up.

Obviously, Joe Blanton is the most valuable current piece of this trade. The 27 year old innings eater has an affordable contract, and has been a fairly solid pitcher throughout his major league career. In fact, even during this season, which has seen his strikeout rate be the lowest of his career. However, despite a high walk rate then 2007, Blanton still posts one of the best base on balls per nine innings in the league, and is well above league average.

Blanton also brings to the table durability. Having pitched in 32 or more games in each of his three MLB seasons, and well on his way to a forth straight-in today's game, that is a dying breed. Even Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus rated Blanton as a 'green' entering this season, all but assuring readers that Blanton would not miss a start in 2008.

The shift to the National League should not really help Blanton, as he moves to a team with a far inferior defense, in a far less favorable park. That is not to say we should expect a Barry Zito-like collapse, but I don't anticipate Blanton making a whole lot of noise in the National League.

Blanton will slide into the Phillies rotation as the #2 starter but will perform more like a #3 or #4. Phillies fans have to hope that the front office does not get some strange idea that this trade allows them to move Brett Myers to the bullpen, unless he struggles again.


The most intriguing player the Athletics received is second basemen, Adrian Cardenas. According to the Athletics press release, Cardenas was "named the Phillies' number two prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2008 season." Not yet 21 years old, Cardenas has put together a quality Minor League career in rising to #2 in a fairly weak Phillies prospect pool.

Entering the 2007 season, John Sickels rated Cardenas as a B- prospect, claiming that his 'quick bat' could result in a quick climb through the minors. Apparently the quick bat impressed Sickels some more, as Cardenas jumped up to a B level prospect entering the 2008 season and, like Baseball America's rating, sat as the #2 prospect in the Phillies organization-and only one of four to be rated higher then a C+.

Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein was slightly less optimistic, rating Cardenas as a 3 star prospect, the third best in the Phillies organization. Here is what Goldstein has to say about Cardenas,

The Good: Cardenas has good bat speed and outstanding hand-eye coordination, using his strong wrists to whip the bat through the hitting zone, leading to consistent hard contact with gap power to all fields. He has a good approach and solid pitch recognition, and gets high grades for his makeup. He shows decent speed once he gets underway.
The Bad: Drafted as a shortstop with the knowledge that he'd have to move, Cardenas continued to struggle with the glove on the right side of the infield in 2007, and need to improve his reads off the bat and his work around the bag. He's a little on the smallish side, and doesn't project for more than average power.

If someone gave this same description to me 7 or 8 years ago, I would have guessed they were talking about Marcus Giles. Two names appearing on Cardenas similarity score, who remind me of Marcus Giles, Frank Catalanotto and Jose Vidro. I'd say if the A's get the prime years of any one of those three players, they will be pleasantly surprised with this piece of the acquisition.

The second piece the Athletics acquired is 23 year old lefty Josh Outman. Having been sent back to double A this season, Outman needs to refine his control while further working on missing bats. Both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus rated Outman as the Phillies forth best prospect entering the 2008 season.

Kevin Goldstein had the following to say about Outman,

The Good: Outman has excellent velocity for a southpaw, sitting at 91-93 mph with his fastball, and touching 95. His secondary stuff is solid, as he gets decent two-plane break on his slurvy breaking ball and has a deceptive changeup. His unique delivery makes his pitches difficult to pick up out of his hand, and scouts like his competitive fire.
The Bad: Outman's mechanics come with good and bad. While the combination of his arm angle and release point make it difficult to throw anything straight, he also has problems throwing strikes with any consistency. He tends to work high in the strike zone, and Double-A hitters made him pay the price.

Like all Phillies prospects, there isn't a whole lot to love right now. With Outman's future likely as a reliever, working high in the strike zone is not something that will result in a lasting career. At least not in high pressure situations.

Being slightly more optimistic, John Sickels rates Outman as the Phillies third best prospect for the 2008 season. In doing so, raising Outman's rating from a B- in 2007 to a B in 2008, the same level as highly touted prospect, and fellow Reading teammate, Carlos Carrasco.

All that being said, there isn't a whole lot to currently get excited about with Outman. He's young, he's a lefty, and can throw relatively hard. So maybe Will Ohman?

Lastly, left handed hitting outfielder Matt Spencer (no relation to Kevin Spencer-image below). The 22 year old has been aggressively moved through the Phillies organization despite not having the statistics to truly back it up.

John Sickels rated Spencer as a C+ prospect entering this season, which is difficult to grasp what kind of value it holds. That is, the Phillies system is so weak, could some of the grades be overly generous in a they couldn't possibly be that bad sort of way?

Well, they are.

I managed to dig up Baseball America's rating for Spencer, he is sitting nicely at #28. As the 113th pick of the draft, it is somewhat telling of the Phillies current scouting department that Spencer could only climb top #28 on this list. Even though, according to Baseball Prospectus, Spencer was one of the eleven best value picks in the 2007 draft.


This trade all but closes the book on Billy Beane's infamous 2002 Moneyball draft. The Phillies did well in not giving away any assets that have any immediate potential within the organization. However when a team does such, they also traditionally do not acquire a true game changing talent in return.

My initial reaction is to state that the Phils won this deal in a landslide. Even upon further inspection, its tough to see what the A's are doing. Combine this with the Rich Harden deal of two weeks ago, and it appears Billy Beane and the Athletics are more concerned with quantity then quality.

Of course, we have all learned to never close the book on a Billy Beane move. No one can be certain what else is in the works, or what lies ahead for the players Beane has moved.

Sometime, however, Billy's 'stuff' (edited) just doesn't stick.

Three Days Without Baseball

Wow! So what is a person supposed to do with oneself?

They can reflect on complaints that I simply do not understand in regards to the All Star Game and it's current 'This time it's for real' format. Now this is the second (maybe third) time I am going to sound like a Bud Selig apologist. And I understand that most think baseball would be better off without Selig, but this is simply something I can not comprehend.

As we all know, Major League Baseball's All Star Game determines which league will have home field advantage for the World Series. In doing so, Selig, and Major League Baseball anticipate a more competitive game and less of an exhibition. To be honest, what can possibly be wrong about that, seeing players give it their all for the ever important home field advantage.

Interestingly, a more competitive game has occurred, since the 7-7 debacle in 2002. That is, in the 6 All Star Games since the inception of this rule, 4 have been decided by one run, and a 5th by only two. Prior to the rule, we have to go all the way back to 1986 to find the 4th game which was decided by a single run. While the sample size is undeniably small, it is difficult to argue with the current results-a more tightly contested match. Similarly, it is difficult to conclude that the new rule is the lone factor for an increase in competitiveness, but it is also tough to argue against such.

Jon Heyman at SI.com discusses how close the game was to again becoming controversial. The argument Heyman presents discusses how both JD Drew and David Wright were warming up in their respective bullpens due to both sides being out of pitchers. I find that this argument has a few flaws, and intend to touch on them in this post.

First, what is the problem with a position player getting into a game? It isn't as if this never occurs. In fact, according to Recondite Baseball, 6 position players got into a game during the 2007 to pitch. Surprisingly, the majority of every MLB team has endured this 'controversial' issue in the new millennium. In most cases, the game was a blowout, and from my memory, most seemed to do alright on the bump.

However, since MLB is implementing instant replay on boundary calls which affect the results of maybe 2 in over 2500 games, should it not be 'controversial' every time a team has to put a position player on the mound? Heyman writes, "But they are not pitchers. And if pitcher Drew and/or pitcher Wright determined home field in the World Series, well, that would have been just plain silly." But it wouldn't be silly for a team to not make the playoffs due to a position player taking the bump during a regular season game? Should this not be chalked up to mis-management?

That is, picture game 7 of the World Series, in the 18th inning. An epic Sunday night battle. But because of how close the game has been, the managers have been moving pitchers in and out of the lineup to take advantage of match ups. Picture David Ortiz taking the bump...I'm certain fans and sportswriters alike aren't going to want to see the World Series Champion crowned in that scenario.

Or how about this, the Padres have been involved in this season's two longest ballgames. A 22 inning marathon against the Colorado Rockies, and an 18 inning affair against the Cincinnati Reds. Not surprisingly, the Padres are in last place in all of baseball. More devastating then that, both starting pitchers who entered the game for the Reds, Harang and Volquez, have seen their seasons fade significantly.

While Harang pitched brilliantly during that relief outing, he has since been placed on the Disabled List and seen his ERA rise nearly a run, while getting bombed in 5 of his 8 starts since. Similarly, Volquez has seen his impossibly low ERA rise just under a run, posting the worst month of his season. While it is certainly an inconclusive leap, I wouldn't be surprised if the relief outing for those pitchers has had a lasting effect.

Let's get back to the 'mis-management' by both the American and National League. Respectively, Francona used 12 pitchers, while the Hurdle allowed 11 of his pitchers to go out there (Tim Lincecum was the 12th for the National League and went to the hospital prior to the game). But 11 or 12 pitchers for 15 innings? If that doesn't scream, 'overly competitive', I don't know what does.

I do understand the responsibility of the managers, abiding by a gentleman's code to not overwork any one pitcher. That is, to not overwork any one pitcher, and to avoid using a pitcher who had extensive work on Saturday or Sunday. But of the 23 pitchers who entered the game, only 8 went above 20 pitches.

Let's also keep in mind that 13 of these 23 pitchers were of the starting variety, reaching to 20, 25, even 30 pitches should not have been out of the realm of possibility. Especially with essentially every team off until Friday evening.

All that being said, why blame Selig for this 'issue', why not ask the managers why they were switching pitchers so frequently? Are we really to believe that Roy Halladay was on a 9 pitch limit? Or fellow single digit tossers, Billy Wagner, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Rodriguez. It is interesting to note that these 3 pitchers have combined for 13 single digit outings thus far this season. To say that they were 'babied' at the All Star Game is a leap, and then some! (As a side, it is equally interesting to see that the most used pitcher-innings and pitches-was Colorado's only legitimate starting pitcher, Aaron Cook, whom Hurdle manages).

So what was the problem? Why was it that the pitchers were being babied to such a degree? Certainly the pitchers do work on the side in between starts.

Ken Rosenthal, of FOX Sports, writes,

Which is why alternate pitchers should be the next step. We're not talking about expanding the roster from 32 players. We're just talking about common sense. If it isn't in the best interests of a Kazmir or Webb to pitch in the All-Star Game, then they shouldn't pitch. Yes, clubs might need to pay one or two more All-Star bonuses to the alternates, but that would be a small sacrifice for preserving their top pitchers' arms.

That is a fine argument. However, recall the Padres-Reds marathon mentioned earlier. The marathon may have been the culprit to ruining Aaron Harang's season. So should extra inning games be eliminated altogether?

That is, would adding 2, or 3, or 4, or 12 pitchers make the likelihood of running out of pitchers any less? Maybe it would add an inning or two of security, but maybe it would cause a more 'match-up' oriented approach from the manager.

Thus, my suggestion would be to force managers to send out the pitchers for at least 2 innings, with the 9th inning being an exception. Additionally, pitchers would be on strict pitch counts, say 15 or 20 for relievers (which would get all through more then 1 inning) and 30 to 45 for starters. These pitch counts would vary dependent on when the last outing was by said pitcher.

I will have to admit, however, that if the ballgame makes it to 20 innings, there may be a problem. Mostly, in that I would worry what MLB and FOX would do for commercial breaks?


There is an argument which suggests that the game might as well be ended in a tie. People assert that Selig's new rule-despite the aforementioned, increased competitiveness-should be trashed and the old system of rotating World Series host cities return. While ratings would presumably be on par with Spring Training baseball, there is a further argument for the new rule.

Home field advantage. It is important. While not outstandingly significant, 8 of 13 World Series' have been won by the team with home field advantage. However, what is significant is that home teams have a cumulative 57% winning percentage at home. Specifically, the American League (which has only 2 teams below .500 at home) has a 59% winning percentage at home, while the National League (with 3 teams below .500) sits at 55%. In other words, a substantial deviation from home and road performances-something that Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus further details.

MLB commissioner Bud Selig had the following to say after the game,

"Everybody understood the ground rules," Selig said. "There was no misunderstanding. There was no contingency. We were going to play the game to the end. That was the contingency. What happened in Milwaukee will not happen again. I really believe that the things that we implemented worked. If we hadn't done them back then there's no question we would've had a problem tonight. But it worked out. In the end it didn't matter."

Which is an excellent point, everybody did understand the ground rules. Both Francona and Hurdle understood that they had x amount of pitchers to get through the game, no matter how long the game went for. Mis-managing their respective clubs should not come back on Bud Selig, but on the managers of the ballgames.


I will concede one aspect of a flaw in MLB's All Star game. Eric Seidman at FanGraphs wraps it up by stating,

Overall, IF the game supposedly counts:

a) No more fan voting
b) No more requirements about representatives from each team
c) Pitchers who can actually pitch are selected
d) More starters than closers
e) Pitchers have to go at least one full inning

If it doesn’t count, do whatever you want. It’s a fun game, there should be no real rules other than to have fun...

And who could argue with that?

Trade Speculator - ESPN Roundtable

Interesting stuff below...



Let's see how these trade match up...

The Outsiders' National League All Stars

Yesterday I posted who I think should have represented the American League in tonight's All Star Game. I know you have been desperately waiting to see who I pick for the National League. From yesterday's post,

I will select 25 players and do my best to select a member from each ballcub-although I am not going to leave out a deserving candidate to fulfill this requirement. I will ensure that not only are specific position requirements met, but also that the most viable lineup is put together. Over at Baseball Musings, David Pinto has a formula which does much of the work, so I will have to give him credit, where credit is due.

So here they are...

National League Starting Lineup

SS - Jose Reyes
CF - Nate McLouth
1B - Lance Berkman
3B - Chipper Jones
DH - Albert Pujols
LF - Pat Burrell
2B - Dan Uggla
C - Ryan Doumit
RF - Ryan Ludwick

In similar fashion to the American League, David Pinto suggests a vastly different lineup to maximize production. According to the analysis, this group of National League players (in a substantially different arrangement), would produce over 7.5 runs per game. However, the analysis does not take into account speed, nor steals. That is, the lineup analysis would be content with a team full of base clogging power hitters. While speed does not have a major impact on the hitter below, it does have enough for me to warrant placing above average hitters in Reyes and McLouth at the top of the lineup, utilizing their speed.

With four switch hitters in the lineup, this lineup could be a nightmare for a left handed starter, while still being effective against righties.

National League Bench

Brian McCann
Chase Utley
Hanley Ramirez
David Wright
Matt Holliday
Jason Bay
Carlos Beltran

Picking this bench was not as difficult as picking the American League bench. The reason being, some of the players that were picked for the starting lineup were picked based on a specific skill set. That is, I feel Reyes is a more worthy top of the order bat then Ramirez is. Dan Uggla brings a lot of strikeouts, but also an incredible power stroke. In all, I don't feel anyone was truly left off this list that was deserving this season.

Furthermore, let it be known that there are not going to be many defensive substitutions, unlike the American League which is deep in quality defenders. Additionally, this bench features only one left handed bat.

National League Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher - Tim Lincecum
Imagine the type of season Lincecum would be having if the Giants were a better team? Little Tim leads the National League in both Win Probability Added (WPA) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). Two very strong indicators of the value he has had to the Giants this season. If I'm the manager of the National League club, I'm telling Lincecum to toe the rubber like a reliever, 'Get me 6-9 outs kid'.

P - Ben Sheets
P - Edinson Volquez
P - Cole Hamels
P - Carlos Zambrano

The list of deserving starting pitchers for the National League is long, too long. Dan Haren, Aaron Cook, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Ryan Dempster, Chad Billingsley, and rookie Jair Jurrjens all have had legitimate All Star type seasons.

RP - Hong Chih Kuo
RP - Takashi Saito
RP - Brian Wilson
RP - Kerry Wood
CL - Brad Lidge

In retrospect, eliminating two relievers (Wilson and Wood) and adding two starters may have been preferable to the direction I choose. However, with the aforementioned list of starters, it would have been equally as difficult to pick only two deserving starters.

National League Legitimate Snubs

The aforementioned starters - Each one proposes a legitimate case to making the All Star team. If I were to pick two, they would have been Aaron Cook and Chad Billingsley.

For Cook, he is a workhorse who goes unnoticed because half of his starts are at Coors Field-although there is an argument to be made that Coors Field actually helps Cook.

Had Billingsley not started the season by getting thumped in 3 of his first 4 starts, we are talking about a legitimate Cy Young candidate. Additionally, despite having a rather high walk rate, Billingsley throws a fair amount of strikes, I haven't checked out his Pitch F/X data to see what kind of swing and miss statistics he has, but clearly he is doing something right.

Taylor Buchholz - Similar to JP Howell for the American League, Buchholz has been extremely impressive. The ex-starter seems to have found a place in the bullpen and in Colorado.

Carlos Lee - Simply put, Lee is one of many great left fielders in the National League. Unfortunately there are too many who are having a better season then Lee.

Derek Lee - Surprisingly, National League first basemen are having fairly disappointing showings to this point. Lee isn't doing anything spectacular, and because of that, is on the outside looking in.

Geovanny Soto - Considering the outstanding statistical season Soto is having, he is doing very little for the Cubs to help them win. His WPA sits at .35 and sits 7th in the National League among catchers. Russell Martin, on the other hand, has a very legitimate beef as he is blowing away the competition in terms of WPA.


Utilizing David Pinto's Lineup Analysis tool, the ideal lineup for National League hitters would have, as mentioned, provided over 7.5 runs. The American League would have put up slightly under 7 runs. While the forecaster does not take into account pitching, park factors, speed, etc, I feel as though the National League has a superior squad.

Which leads to the debate, should the All Star Game count?

Hit 'em to Hamilton

Apparently Josh Hamilton can hit the ball far.



That's fairly entertaining. For every home run, head over to MLB.com.



I feel pretty sorry for the Ranger batting practice pitcher. Between Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Ian Kinsler.

The Outsiders' American League All Stars

Since everyone else is doing it, I'm going to chime in with my personal All Stars. I will select 25 players and do my best to select a member from each ballcub-although I am not going to leave out a deserving candidate to fulfill this requirement. I will ensure that not only are specific position requirements met, but also that the most viable lineup is put together. Over at Baseball Musings, David Pinto has a formula which does much of the work, so I will have to give him credit, where credit is due.

American League Starting Lineup

CF - Grady Sizemore
2B - Ian Kinsler
3B - Alex Rodriguez
DH - Milton Bradley
RF - JD Drew
LF - Carlos Quentin
1B - Justin Morneau
C - Dioner Navarro
SS - Michael Young

Although this isn't the lineup that David Pinto's lineup forecaster suggests to utilize, I feel this lineup would really give an opposing pitcher troubles, regardless of throwing arm. Of course, almost any All Star lineup without Jason Varitek would do so. The only major change I could see, would be to swap Bradley and Rodriguez in the batting order.

American League Bench

Joe Mauer
Kevin Youkilis
Brain Roberts
Carlos Guillen
Josh Hamilton
Nick Markakis
Ichiro Suzuki

This was a tough list to compile. A lot of deserving players missed the cut, such as Evan Longoria and Jason Giambi. However, the ability to play multiple positions played nearly as big of a role as did raw statistics. That is, Guillen received an extra vote of confidence in his ability to play both corner infield positions, as well as short stop.

American League Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher - Roy Halladay
Doc get the nod for me because he has to regularly face near all star lineups against the Red Sox and Yankees. His presence also allows for one fewer reliever to be carried and an additional starter.

P - Justin Duchscherer
P - Scott Kazmir
P - Cliff Lee
P - Felix Hernandez
P - John Lackey

Picking the pitchers was probably more difficult then picking the hitters. Among starters, there were a lot of worthy candidates who had to be left off simply due to numbers. John Danks, Ervin Santana, and Zach Greinke specifically stand out, as pitchers who would have made the cut in almost any year. Each are plenty deserving of a spot on this years All Star team. Additionally, had Shaun Marcum not went down with an injury, he would have made the rotation.

RP - Scott Downs
RP - Joakim Soria
RP - Francisco Rodriguez
CL - Mariano Rivera

Choosing relievers is somewhat subjective. While I wanted to ensure the pitchers had been valuable to their respective clubs, I also wanted to ensure that the pitchers were having a dominant season and would be having similar successes on any other Major League team. Specifically, Scott Shields, Joba Chamberlain, Scott Linebrink, and Jim Johnson are set up men who are going unnoticed simply because they are not in a flashy role. Similarly, people forget how incredible of a job Joe Nathan does because he pitches for Minnesota.

American League Legitimate Snubs

Manny Ramirez - Manny has the highest WPA in the entire American League, so why leave him out? Why not sit and enjoy 3 days of Manny being Manny in New York City? Well, I feel that other players have done more for their specific teams. While Manny has been outstanding, specifically in the abscence of David Ortiz, he has had a spectacular supporting cast. Unlike Quentin who had to carry the Sox on his own through much of May.

Dustin Pedroia - Same situation here. This is not to take anything away from the season that Pedroia has had, but hitting in this lineup makes anyone look good. Remember when Rich Aurilla was raking with the Giants?

David DeJesus - Despite missing some time due to an injury, DeJesus is having a remarkable, yet unnoticed season. I guess I joined the snub party.

JP Howell - Who? Howell has been rocksteady in the Rays vastly improved bullpen. There is a legitimate argument that this pick shows that I know nothing about baseball.

I already named the starters who it was hard to leave off of the list. I took a close look at both Joe Saunders and Daisuke Matsuzaka as two pitchers to include in my snubs list. I'm simply not sure either one of them are putting up sustainable enough numbers to legitimize their selection on this list.


Next up, my National League All Stars....

OWNED! Reflections of Pre-All Star Break Season

I get owned on what appears to be an INXS message board. I'm not sure if this exactly hurts, I mean these are INXS fans, right? In reflection of a post I created during the middle of March, I proclaimed to 'Better Than Oasis', heckling pop group INXS for making a song which sounded as if they wanted to say it, but couldn't man up.

Needless to say, I don't think INXS fans will be writing my name in for any blogger of the year awards. On the bright side, I'm now referred to as a 'Sports Writer'. Oh, and I also learned what happens when you google your own name...a couple times...a day.


That aside, I know everyone has been asking themselves, what does Brandon think about the pre All Star Break season? So here I will reflect on my pre-season player predictions and what I anticipate to come.

Pre-Season Player Predictions

Over at The Fantasy Baseball Generals we were asked to give some award predictions. You can check mine out here.

American League MVP to date:
Milton Bradley - I am sticking with the player I picked nearly two weeks ago for the blogger's poll. Bradley has been incredible and goes into the All Star Break having hit home runs in back-to-back games. As I mentioned, I feel Bradley's presence has had a lot to do with Josh Hamilton's impressive season.

I have a tough time believing Bradley can maintain the season he is having. While his batted ball data is not entirely out of line with his career rates, staying healthy will be Bradley's biggest obstacle. Combine that with the Rangers current place in the standings makes it tough to believe he will come out on top.

Currently, I have Alex Rodriguez as my second most valuable player, but like Bradley, the Yankees position in the standings combined with Rodriguez's injury may limit the likelihood of that. In third, my preseason pick of Grady Sizemore does not look terrible, until one is reminded how awful the Indians have played to date. The current American Leader in home runs and not far from the 40 home run pace I predicted in March.

MVP by seasons end:
All in all, this award is going to come down to the best player on whichever team wins the American League Central. Right now, Carlos Quentin would be the front runner, but he will have to avoid any second half slumping. Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton will both challenge, especially if the Ranger make a legitimate run. Prediction: Justin Morneau.

Cy Young to date:
Roy Halladay - Doc is having arguably the best season of his career. Unfortunately the Jays hitting has stunk otherwise my Jays for the wild card pick wouldn't look so bad. Halladay's ability to give the Jays bullpen a night off on 7 of his 19 starts has been phenomenal and justifies my pick here.

Halladay is also a good enough pitcher to continue the success he is having. Unfortunately, the Baseball Writers of America (BBWA) do not care how good a player performed, they care about how a player performs, they care about how a player performs relative to his team. Currently Doc has 11 wins, but I have a tough time seeing him surpass 16 win unless the Jays really turn things around. That will be what holds him back.

John Lackey and Cliff Lee have both been otherworldly. Lee has the least likely chance of winning the award simply because the Indians have stunk. Although, when Martinez and Hafner return, the Indians could hurt a lot of teams playoff dreams. On the other hand, Lackey is the typical BBWA Cy Young pitcher-posting solid numbers and performing on a playoff caliber team.

Similar to the situation my preseason MVP, Grady Sizemore, finds himself in, my preason Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez is playing phenomenal baseball for a terribly team. In March I predicted the Mariners to win 'a lot of games' and for the Mariners to subsequently win the division. I also envisions Hernandez being the centerpiece of this success en route to far and away leading the league in wins, while taking the next step in his development as a pitcher. Hernandez is having an outstanding season and is holding up his end of my prediction, sitting with the 6th best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in the American League. Unfortunately the Mariners suck.

Cy Young by seasons end:
If the Mariners didn't suck, I would stick with Hernandez. I probably would have done the same thing with Sizemore for MVP. But I know how the BBWA vote and what they like to see. I can see the voters giving some love to Halladay (especially if he keeps firing complete games), but in the end, I see the award going to John Lackey or super-surprise John Danks. Predictions: John Lackey.

Rookie of the Year to date:
Evan Longoria - Fewer then 4 weeks ago, by my own admission, Jacoby Ellsbury, had made too wide of a gap with his outstanding play in April, for Longoria to make up the difference. Well, Longoria officially put his name on the map with a fantastic series against the Red Sox to further cement his position as the best first year player.

My preseason pick has officially fallen off the face of the earth. Philip Humber has essentially lost all of the value that he entered this season with and is unlikely to get called up this season, let alone perform at a high enough level to overtake Longoria. My bad.
Rookie of the Year by seasons end:
Longoria started running away with the award and has become a major factor for the Rays this season. His defensive play has been a god-send for one of the majors best defensive teams. Ellsbury appears to be turning things around, but the Red Sox will begin to minimize his work again once David Ortiz returns in a couple of weeks. The BBWA have fallen in love with Longoria, thus Prediction: Evan Longoria.


National League MVP to date:
Lance Berkman - Aside from the steals, Berkman isn't doing a whole lot that he hasn't done previously in his career. If one forgets last seasons ice cold start, Berkman's current season looks a lot like last years second half. The big surprise, however, comes with the fact that Berkman is 32 years old, he isn't supposed to age like this.

Behind Berkman is Albert Pujols, and super surprise Edinson Volquez. Unfortunately Pujols missed some time this year, which will hurt him when the BBWA are handing out the award. However, the Cards stayed hot and Pujols won't have to worry about not winning the award due to being on a losing team. Volquez on the other hand, does have that to deal with.

Prior to the start of the season, I predicted that Pujols would run away with the award. I claimed that the elbow injuries were more a concern of the media then they would be of Pujols. Low and behold, Pujols hasn't had any elbow issues to deal with, and his power is only marginally worse then it had been in years past. However, for a player of Pujols' age, that isn't really a good thing.

MVP by seasons end:
This is a tough one to call. Currently none of the top performers (aside from Pujols) are on teams that are performing at a high enough level for a typical winner by BBWA standards. Keep an eye on the Mets-Phillies race in the National League East. Either David Wright or Chase Utley should walk away with the award for whichever team wins the division. Prediction: David Wright.

Cy Young to date:
Tim Lincecum - It is simple, Lincecum has dominated. Despite the vote that I sent in for Volquez earlier in the week, Lincecum has simply taken over as the National Leagues best pitcher, and has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball. Leading the league in FIP, Lincecum is actually managing to get better as the season goes along. Simply put, I cannot gush over Lincecum enough.

Volquez and Ben Sheets would still round out my top three. Volquez appears to be fading, although he will still merit an understandable amount of votes for Cy Young, simply because of how big of a surprise he has been. Being on a losing team also will not help his cause. On the other hand, Ben Sheets is on a team that is looking to make a significant run to the playoffs.

Cy Young by seasons end:
I am curious what the BBWA will do with CC Sabathia. Are his numbers as an Indian not transferrable to winning the NL Cy Young? If they are, Sabathia will make a legitimate argument to win the award. However, either he or Sheets will make a quality candidate for the Brewers.

The being said, with how the Mets have played as of late, my preseason pick of Johan Santana may come to fruition if the Mets can pull out the division. I also anticipate this selection being the BBWA trying to say, 'see, we were right'. Prediction: Johan Santana.

Rookie of the Year to date:
Geovanny Soto - Apparently the steps Soto took last year were legitimate. Soto has been one of, if not the best offensive catcher this season. Receiving pitches from an outstanding rotation on a winning ballclub make his contributions that much more noticeable.

However, Jair Jurrjens, the pitcher the Braves received for Edgar Renteria, has potentially been more valuable to the Braves to this point in the season. As is, Soto has had better overall numbers, but Jurrjens has been more consistent. It will be interesting to see how both wear as the season progresses. I am also not willing to count out Kosuke Fukudome, although I would debate that his rookie season is somewhat a fraud.

My preseason pick of Jay Bruce has not worked out. Despite raking in the minors, the Reds kept Bruce down as to control his arbitration. After a fast start, it appeared the Reds made the wrong decision, and my personal question of whether or not the Reds had used up all of Bruce's stats in the minors, was answered. A lot has changed, and the worries about how Bruce will hold up against Major League pitching have come to fruition, as Bruce has look absolutely terrible, striking out at a ridiculous rate.


Keep in mind Bruce is only 21 years old, so despite his struggles (specifically against lefties), he is still having an outstanding season.

Rookie of the Year by seasons end:
I am going to give this award to Jair Jurrjens. I feel as though the season he is having is more sustainable. Soto is having to log a lot of time behind the plate, and despite being given a considerable break DHing during inter league play, the summer isn't even halfway through yet. The Cubs would be wise to ensure he is getting at least 2 days off a week. Prediction: Jair Jurrjens.


I will reflect on surprise seasons and my highlights of the first half in the coming days. I also intend to supply my All Star teams, and maybe an All Disappointment Team.

Take a Chance on Me - 9th Edition

Take a Chance on Me has been far and few between lately although I am enjoying the most recent format of suggesting injury pick ups. This week's TACOM suggests the acquisition of Cleveland Indians, Fausto Carmona and Victor Martinez. Additionally, I supply reasons why 'closers' JJ Putz and Troy Percival should be avoided.

Check out The Fantasy Baseball Generals for more outstanding fantasy baseball coverage.

The Final Ballot

I typically will only vote for the final spots on the ML All Star roster as I feel the All Star Balloting is a joke, and honestly do not want to waste my time.

Trade Speculator - Done Deal!

MLB.com is reporting that the Chicago Cubs have acquired Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin from the Oakland A's for Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson. This is already shaping up to be one exciting Trade Deadline.

Despite being a rather knee-jerk reaction, the Cubs did well with what little they have. The feeling around the organization must be that Murton and Patterson are not going to provide much in terms of major league production, while Donaldson is undeniably blocked. The A's on the other hand must have decided that they were never safe with Harden, and that he was better traded, then 'being' traded.

I'll begin looking at how the Cubs did in this trade.

Initially, I thought, great job, and even now I am confident this is as good of a starter as the Cubs could have possibly acquired. They may have been able to do some other shuffling to bring aboard Erik Bedard, but outside of that, no one available is near the pitcher that Rich Harden is. However, with Harden's injury history-which will be beaten to death in other reflections of this trade-he does come as quite the gamble.

In Harden, the Cubs receive a legitimate ace. In Harden's 6 seasons as a Major League starter (including 7 outings from the pen), he has always performed at an extraordinarily high level. His career NRA (Normalized Runs Allowed) sits at 3.52 and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a strong 3.43. These are the numbers of an outstanding pitcher. For example, in 2007 there were only 8 starters with a FIP of 3.43 or lower.

The unfortunate issue, is that Harden has only once qualified for the ERA title and is no sure bet to make it for this year. Given the use and abuse the Cubs traditionally place on their starters arm, Cub-land will be holding their breath with every nasty pitch Harden throws.

As essentially a fastball-change up pitcher now, Harden has done his best to limit the amount of strain he puts on his arm. While his fastball has lost a bit of velocity, it is still one of the better pitches in the majors, as he has pinpoint control. Despite missing a brief stint thus far, by all accounts his arm has held up-in Harden terms.

The only worry that is not injury related is the fly ball rate. With the essential extinction of Harden's slider, has come an incredibly jump in his fly ball percentage (FB%). Owning a FB% of over 50% may prove to be detrimental in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Keep an eye on that as he also regresses towards the mean in home runs per fly ball (HR/FB).

The acquisition of Chad Gaudin is definitely an interesting one. At 25 years old, there is still a fair amount of upside left in Gaudin. He is in the midst of his 3rd straight quality season with the A's, and outside from a thumping in Toronto, Gaudin has been a decent major league starter. Especially when you take into account his age.

Gaudin is arbitration eligible for the next three seasons, and probably won't be a pitcher to cost all too much for those seasons. He will, however, be a very strong pitcher in the weak National League.

Being more of a ground ball pitcher will help Gaudin in Chicago. What will also help is facing weaker lineups, where his high walk rate (BB/9) will not be as prominent. With any luck, the Cubs traded for the pitcher Gaudin has been this season, and considering his recent trends, that isn't all too unlikely.

In 2004, Gaudin earned honorable mention on Baseball Prospectus' top 50 prospect list. The authors cite Gaudin's incredible run through the minors as a 19 and 20 year old, where he eventually got the call to the bigs by the then Devil Rays. After an impressive big league showing Gaudin was abused by the Devil Rays management, jumping between the starting rotation and the bullpen. He was later moved to Toronto for catching prospect, Kevin Cash. Toronto then decided he wasn't worth their time, and was moved for a PTBNL.

In return for Gaudin and Harden, the A's received one of my favorite pitching prospects, Sean Gallagher. The 22 year old righty has been a disappointment thus far in the majors, although he has made some substantial adjustments this season, and has a lot of potential.

n Gallagher, the Athletics receive a B rated prospect entering 2008 according to John Sickels-the prospect is also #3 overall and the top pitching prospect in the Cubs system. Sickels also rated Gallagher as a B level prospect entering the 2007 season, at #4 overall and as the #2 pitcher within the Cubs system. So it is good to see Gallagher has at least maintained course. Overall, Sickels had Gallagher rated as his #38 prospect in all of baseball entering the 2007 season.

At the beginning of the 2007 season Sickels compared Gallagher to Kevin Slowey of the Minnesota Twins having the following to say about him,

...improved to 89-94 last year, with movement. His curveball is excellent, and his changeup has developed into an average pitch. His mechanics are usually solid but at times they will wander a bit, hurting his command.

A fastball topping out at 94 mph is nothing to write home about, but if the movement is legit, and he is capable of controlling his curve ball, Gallagher should be a quality major leaguer. Sickels saw him live this season and confirmed what he already thought.

Baseball Prospectus wrote about Gallagher in November of 2006, saying, "a 91-93 mph fastball, and with his hard, biting breaking ball, he has two plus pitches."

As a 3 star prospect, Gallagher isn't expected to be much more then a middle of the rotation innings eater, something that is highly valuable in this day and age of baseball. In a perfect world, I think Sean Gallagher turns out to be a Joe Blanton-type.

The ginger in the equation, Matt Murton, simply cannot seem to stick it in the bigs. At 26 he is too old to be in Triple A, and really isn't going to get any more seasoned at that level. His major league stats have been fine, yet unspectacular and lacking power, the move to Oakland and the American League certainly will not help.

At worst Murton is a 4th outfielder, another piece a club needs. However, this piece isn't really one you build a trade around, which leads me to believe the A's have the same hope for Murton that many experts had when entering 2006, as an essential rookie. I would say an optimistic annual expectation out of Murton would be 25 home runs and an on base percentage (OBP) around .380, realistically, we're looking at 15-20 home runs with a .350 OBP, nice, but not spectacular.

Probably the most impressive player involved in what is feeling like a rather disappointing trade for Mr. Beane is Eric Patterson. At 25 years old, Patterson must start producing at the major league level. While he cannot be blamed for his lack of production to this point, the pressure will be on for him to follow through with the promise, especially after being moved to a more demanding outfield position-although I have to believe Patterson's arrival is the beginning of the end for Mark Ellis, whom a lot of teams would love to have.

Hurting Patterson, in my opinion, is that he has somewhat regressed in the eyes of John Sickels. Sickels rated Patterson as a B+ prospect entering 2007, and dropped him down to a B this season 'due to defense'. However, entering 2006 Patterson sat at a B, so overall he hasn't really moved up or down. Is that a positive or a negative for a toolsy hitter like Patterson?

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus breaks down the good and the bad of Patterson, while rating him a 3 star prospect and the 8th best within the Cubs organization,

The Good: Patterson can beat you in many ways offensively. He can hit for average, draw a decent amount of walks, steal a base at the right opportunity, and he surprises many with the amount of juice in his bat. His best tool is his speed, but he has no major weaknesses at the plate or on the basepaths.
The Bad: Patterson's defense has always been a concern, and he was moved to the outfield because of his defensive shortcomings as much as he was moved there in order to increase his versatility. He still struggles against good left-handers.

'No major weaknesses', although there really aren't many absolute strengths either.

Entering the 2007 season, Patterson just missed making Baseball Prospectus' top 100 prospects list, joining notables Dustin Pedroia, and Alexi Casilla among others. Overall, Patterson's best case scenario would be to become Brian Roberts with Chris Burke would being on the low end of the spectrum.

Finally, checking in with catcher Josh Donaldson, we see a 22 year old catcher who hasn't done anything particularly special since being drafted in 2007. While his strikeout rate has dropped during his promotion to A ball, his walk rate has also taken a hit. Additionally, the power looks worse, although only slightly less impressive. Drawing a conclusion on a catcher of this age is nearly impossible and surely a wasteful thing to do. That is, consider the strides Victor Martinez took between his 22nd and 23rd birthdays while jumping from High A ball to Double A. A lot can click for a hitter in his early years.

Checking in with Kevin Goldstein, who rated Donaldson as the cubs 5th best prospect, ahead of both Gallagher and Patterson, a three star talent, reveals the following,

Year In Review: The offense-oriented catcher had a monster debut, and would have led the Northwest League in both slugging and on-base percentage if he'd gotten enough plate appearances to qualify.
The Good: Donaldson is an on-base machine who had more walks than strikeouts in 2007 while also showcasing solid hitting skills and average to slightly-above power. He's a good athlete for a catcher, and his arm rates as above average.
The Bad: Much of Donaldson's future projection relies on his ability to stay behind the plate. While Donaldson has the potential to become an average defender, he's only been catching for two years and is a well below-average backstop beyond that throwing arm.

Nothing overly impressive, granted there isn't a lot of information to draw a conclusion from. What should stick out for those who read Moneyball and felt as though they had somewhat of an understanding of Billy Beane, is that both Murton and Donaldson fit into the 'patient hitter' mold.

Sickels is equally as impressed with Donaldson and his professional debut, rating him as a B prospect, and the 6th best prospect in the Cubs system. I imagine one would be hard pressed to find many catching prospects rating higher then Donaldson, so this is quite the compliment. Granted, I would assume there are a few (namely Maximilano Ramirez of the Rangers) who have jumped Donaldson this season.


Overall, I have to give this one to the Cubs. They sent away only one piece that had a legitimate shot at being apart of their future (Gallagher), while sending away a major disappointment (Murton), and two unknown variables who are blocked (Patterson-DeRosa/Cedeno and Donaldson-Soto). Furthermore, with the haul the Indians got for Sabathia, it is hard to believe this is the best trade that was out there for Harden. Interestingly, the A's also appear to be raising their white flag relatively early.

That is, sitting only 6 games behind and having a vastly superior Pythagorean record (for runs scored/allowed, EQR/EQRA, and aEGR/aEQRA) the A's should be actually doing better then they are, and the Angels should be doing worse.

Furthermore, it would be startling to me if Gallagher turned out to be a better pitcher then any of the Athletics current top pitching prospects. If that is true, the A's essentially traded Harden for Patterson and some essential spare parts. Albeit, they are parts Beane may be able to flip down the road.

Article of the Week for the Week of June 29 - July 5

The Hardball Times author Sal Baxamusa pens an article titled "Good team, Bad Team, Glad team, Sad Team".

So what makes a good team? What allows for a team to win ballgames? Baxamusa asserts,

Three things are required for a team to win a lot of baseball games:

1. Have a lot of talented players.
2. Have those players play well.
3. Have more runs than the other team at the end of games.

'Have more runs than the other team at the end of games'.

Trade Speculator - Hello LaPorta! - Part III

It's official, Matt LaPorta is now an Indian. Along with LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and a player to be named later (PTBNL) were traded from Milwaukee to Cleveland for CC Sabathia. My initial reaction is, 'great job Shapiro', despite not naming any one of the four prospects that I was looking forward to seeing don Chief Wahoo.

The trade is being compared to the last time Cleveland traded an ace, back in 2002 when Bartolo Colon was moved to the Expos. During the Indians press conference, Shapiro did his best to shoot down that speculation, citing the unique situation with the Expos and a changing environment in baseball in general.

Shapiro additionally stated that the trade timing was vital. He stated,

Two of (the teams) clearly stated, that the player had more value to them now. That they may not be in it at this level, or may not be in it at all in two or three weeks.

It will be interesting to hear the rumors of who was offered by other teams, but for now, let's reflect on the trade as is. It will also be of interest to see what other trades occur, be it AJ Burnett, Erik Bedard, or a move that is from left field.

The Brewers landed the best available pitcher, which immediately makes them look good. The keystone of the trade was a player whom the front office was not sure where he would play. Between Fielder, Braun, and Hart, the positions LaPorta is capable of playing were filled for what appears to be long term.

That said, CC Sabathia will come in, and give Milwaukee a legitimate 1-2 punch atop their rotation. If Sheets can remain healthy, this is arguably the top pair in all of baseball (although I am admittedly biased). Even still, Sabathia provides insurance in the event that Sheets does go down with an injury. This also adds some variety to a fairly righty-heavy rotation.

Clearly there cannot be enough said about Sabathia. He is an outstanding hurler who will eat innings and if he continues on his current roll, will absolutely shred apart the National League. Playing in what is a fairly neutral park also will not hurt Sabathia's production.

This deal also makes sense for the Brewers as they have been outstanding at drafting lately, and even if they are unable to resign Sabathia, the picks they will receive will restock the club. The additional revenue from a legitimate post season push, and potential birth will also help this rebuilt franchise.

Sitting only 3.5 games behind the Cubs for first, the Brewers are legitimate contenders in the terrible National League. Some improvements from underachieving players and a trade to help out the bullpen, and this team should be the National Leagues representative in the World Series.

In return for the big man, Shapiro and the Indians grabbed one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball as well as two, possibly three sound prospects.

Matt LaPorta is a position-less power hitter who has zoomed through the minors, rapidly reaching Double A. He was drafted in the first round of 2007 and in 108 minor league games, LaPorta has quickly adjusted to swinging wood, hitting 31 home runs. At 23 years old, LaPorta is clearly one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

LaPorta's stock entering the draft was obviously high. He was drafted in the 14th round of the 2006 draft by the Boston Red Sox, after what is being called an 'injury riddled junior year'. Obviously it was a wise decision as LaPorta ended up being drafted nearly 400 picks earlier by the Brewers. Interestingly, LaPorta was still viewed as a first round pick in 2006.

Kevin Goldstein rated LaPorta as the #15 prospect entering the 2007 draft, citing his outstanding senior season as the reason why. Goldstein called notice to LaPorta's 20 home runs in 169 at bats, coupled with 16 strikeouts. As a side note, home run to strikeout ratio is definitely an underutilized statistic. All that being said, LaPorta was tabbed as the "arguably the best pure hitter in the draft".

The scouting report on LaPorta at the time stated,

LaPorta has as much power as any bat, especially from the college ranks, in this draft class. He's got power to all fields and can hit the ball out of any ballpark with any kind of bat.

And,

He may never win a gold glove, but he's been OK at first defensively this year....Unless someone thinks he can play another position -- not a common belief -- LaPorta is limited to first base or DH duties in the future.

Nobody is going to argue that LaPorta's defensive abilities are minimal at best. But the best claim appears courtesy of Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein who reminds readers that LaPorta has made an alarmingly low amount of put outs this season. Thus asserting that LaPorta's range/awareness are minimal. Welcome to the American League kid!

Despite the defensive issues, LaPorta was tabbed as not needing a lot of time in the minors. This is good news for the Indians who could use LaPorta's power sooner, rather then later.

It is probably a good idea that the Brewers traded Zach Jackson, as his existence within the organization would have led to a lot of confusion with Zach Johnson. Both are young lefty pitchers, the one being a first round pick, the other being around to confuse the accounting department.

Zach Jackson began his professional career with an outstanding start in the Blue Jays minor league system. During his first season of pro ball, he went from High A to Triple A. This was clearly a mistake by the Jays as Jackson should have come along much slower. The club ended up trading him after his first season to the Brewers in the Lyle Overbay trade.

The Brewers didn't do Jackson any favors, keeping him at Triple A as a struggling 23 year old. This damage has been particularly noted as Jackson's career high in innings pitched stands at under 170, during his age 24 season in 2007.

John Sickels rated Jackson as a B prospect for his first season in the Brewers system. A nice grade for such a young pitcher, but that grade has dropped to a C grade entering this season.

Jackson gives the Indians a major league ready left handed pitcher, but essentially nothing else. Being predominantly used out of the bullpen this season, it will be interesting to see what the Indians have in mind with Jackson. Obviously Shapiro did his homework, let's see if he was right.

Young righty reliever Robert Bryson has taken a step back during his age 20 season, however has still been effective. Sickels rated Bryson as a C+ prospect this season, although I'm not certain if that is more reflective of Sickels opinion on 19 year old relievers, or on a purely stuff analysis.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus rated Bryson as the 10th best prospect in the Brewers organization. Here is what Goldstein wrote about Bryson entering this season,

Year In Review: A $300,000 draft-and-follow from the gambit's last season in existence, Bryson looked to be worth every penny in his pro debut.
The Good: Bryson offers plenty to dream on. He has strong mechanics with a good leg drive and quick, fluid arm action, which allows him to pound the strike zone with 91-94 mph fastballs while occasionally hitting 96 when he rears back for something extra. He shows some feel for a slider, and seems to bring his entire game a step forward in pressure situations.
The Bad: Because he's from Delaware and has just one year of junior college experience, Bryson is pretty unrefined. He needs to find much greater consistency with his breaking ball, and his changeup is rudimentary, which gives him problems against left-handed hitters. More than anything else, he just needs innings. He has a stocky build, and might need to watch his conditioning down the road.
Fun Fact: In Bryson's final start for Seminola College, he struck out 12 over eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits–-while throwing 132 pitches.
Perfect World Projection: Bryson's ceiling is considerably high, but he's also far from it.
Timetable: Bryson will make his highly-anticipated full-season debut at Low-A.

The gamble certainly has paid off for the Brewers, although I wonder what they saw his long term role as. Shapiro tabbed him as a 'reliever', but Bryson appears to be spending a decent amount of time logging long innings. Overall, it feels as if Bryson is a lot like the Indians' Jensen Lewis, which isn't a bad thing at all.

Lastly, the PTBNL, apparently this was a vital part of the trade and it will be interesting to see who the player is. Shapiro is quoted as saying, "the deal doesn't get done without the" PTBNL. Typically teams are provided with a list of players whom they can scout slightly closer and pick a player from that list. The Indians apparently have until the end of the season to make their decision, although from the sounds of things, the decision is already made. Chances are, the player is playing at a low level of the minors, and Shapiro wants to get a closer look at him.

That being the case, two of the four players I mentioned previously would still be in play. Braddock, a personal favorite of mine, and Frerichs, a player whom intrigues me to a great extent. As a side note, I think the Brewers have corned the market on players named 'Zach', wow!

Clearly this was the best trade on the table, and as I mentioned, a trade Shapiro HAD to pull the trigger on. Waiting, could have given the Brewers cold feet, or could have resulted in a Sabathia injury. In fact, a solid Tribe winning streak would have made it difficult for Shapiro to pull the trigger on this deal.

However, during the press conference, Shapiro discussed why he choose to trade Sabathia rather then hold him on for draft picks. He states that between the expected time frame of a drafted player (3-5 years) as well as development were important factors. Shapiro claims that even a player moving up to High A ball is far ahead of player to be drafted next season.


As an Indians fan, I love this trade. I feel as though there really isn't a winner or a loser. The Brewers should be able to replace LaPorta, Bryson, and the PTBNL with the compensatory picks, not requiring any one of them immediately. The Indians have more pressing needs and will benefit from LaPorta, who immediately becomes the clubs #1 prospect and strengthens a solid minor league system (I will provide an Indians prospect list after this week).

As a supporter/bandwagoner of the Tampa Bay Rays, this trade also works out well. The Sox, Yanks, etc are now out of the Sabathia sweepstakes. Additionally, with 6 games remaining against the Indians, the odds of facing Sabathia at least once were substantial. Now the Rays will benefit from facing Jeff Weaver at least once...Not a terrible turn of events for the Rays despite a heart breaking loss this afternoon.

Update - 07/07/08 - 5:15PM EST
According to MLB.com, the PTBNL is reported to be either Taylor Green or Michael Brantley, "both of whom are considered prime prospects." From what I can see, both would be outstanding additions and would have a promising big league career ahead.

Trade Speculator - Goodbye Carstens - Part II

Via Baseball Digest Daily,

FoxSports.com is reporting that the Milwaukee Brewers have dealt Matt LaPorta and 2 lower level prospects to the Cleveland Indians for C.C. Sabathia. I've yet to receive confirmation of the trade but I've put in a call to Matt and hope to hear back from his soon. More details to come...

It will be interesting to see who the two additional prospects are, as well as to hear LaPorta's take on the trade. It does, however, sound as if the Brewers stood pat in not willing to deal both LaPorta and Alcides Escobar, thus crushing my dreams of seeing the greatest middle infield of all time.

I will reflect on this trade at a later date. Obviously I would like to hear what other offers were legitimately on the table as that is vital to grading a trade under these circumstances. It also can be assumed that the Indians feel as though their season is lost.

Trade Speculator - CC Sabathia - Part I

For Charles Carstens and the Indians, hopefully this Trade Speculator is part one of one. As reported by Tim Hardicourt and Anthony Witrado, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Indians are in negotiations to work out a deal that revolve around CC Sabathia. As far as names are concerned, the only reports are that the Indians have checked out Milwaukee's high A affiliate, the Brevard County Manatees. Canadian Taylor Green is a name that came up, although I can't see the Indians making a trade for prospects that are that far from the majors. Hardicourt and Witrado assert that the Brewers probably wouldn't part with Green and the other top third base prospect, Matt Gamel. However, Shapiro has been quite sly with his trade negotiations, so expect him to get a lot here.

Despite the report from Hardicourt and Witrado, Ken Rosenthal is suggesting that the Brewers have offered their top prospect, Matt LaPorta. It additionally sounds as if they are willing to send Alcides Escobar in a package for Sabathia. Rosenthal, however, suggests that an additional piece would have to come from Cleveland in this proposed package.

If the Indians could land Escobar, the middle infield that this team would sport at the end of 2009 and beyond would be, in my opinion, the best of all time. Maybe not with the sticks, but I'm certain it would be impossible to hit a ground ball up the middle on those two slick fielders. Additionally, we would see some of the most remarkable double plays ever!

Stepping away from my Cleveland colored glasses for a moment, let's take a look at what the experts have to say about LaPorta and Escobar.

Kevin Goldstein, the Baseball Prospectus writer whom I source several times a week, rated LaPorta as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization and the 4th player under 25. Keep in mind that LaPorta is in the company of All Stars Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, as well as pitcher Yovani Gallardo. In other words, if LaPorta was in any other organization, he would arguably be their top under 25 talent.

I will ignore what negative Goldstein has to say about LaPorta as it focuses on his fielding and fielding alone. The reason being, when the bat is as good as LaPorta's is projected to be, you are excused for having cement hands. Here is what Goldstein has to say,

LaPorta has true impact potential offensively, with some scouts believing that he had the best power and the best pitch recognition in last June's draft. He has the patience to wait for a pitch to hit, the bat speed to let balls carry deep into the zone, the strength to power them out to all fields, and the hand/eye coordination to hit for average as well. Moved to the outfield for the first time in his career after signing, the Brewers praised his work ethic in learning the new position, and his ability to leave his defensive issues behind him when he stepped to the plate.

'True impact potential offensively'. Given as a 23 year old, LaPorta has 19 moonshots thus far for his double A club, it appears as though he has been accurately labeled.

Sickels agrees that LaPorta's bat is legit, although like Goldstein, he questions LaPorta's glove dropping the kid to #19 on his prospect hitters list. A B+ rating is solid, if not spectacular for a hitter with such little experience within professional baseball. This only further impresses me on the success that LaPorta has had to date.

Despite recent word that the Brewers will be unwilling to part with Escobar if they are already sending LaPorta, let's quickly check out the player whom the Indians might have involved in this package.

Escobar is not going to win a triple crown any time soon. In fact, he probably never will. The lack of power, which led a scout to tell Goldstein, that Escobar is "about as strong as my sister". Furthermore, according to Goldstein, Escobar's "highly-aggressive approach limits his on-base ability. He also has a sizable platoon split, with much more effectiveness against southpaws."

The Indians would be receiving a high average, outstanding defensive short stop. This could be an addition by subtraction as it would allow them to freely shop Casey Blake and eventually move Jhonny Peralta to the hot corner.

Looking through the Brewers organization, four names stuck out to me as players I would want if I were running the Indians.

First, Zachary Braddock, a 20 year old left handed starter pitching in high A. Currently Braddock is having a mediocre season, but much of that can be blamed on poor luck and lack of control. Sickels rated Braddock as a C+ prospect entering this season, and I would imagine that rating to remain the same as of today. The strikeouts have taken a hit, but he is still young enough to turn things around in that regard.

Second, Corey Frerichs. This 22 year old reliever is dominating low A ball with an 11.72 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings). Like Braddock his walk rate is fairly high, and at Frerichs age, he may never turn into Rafael Betancourt, but from the numbers, the kid looks like a nice piece to acquire. Frerichs isn't showing up on anyones prospect lists, to his price may be low enough to get as a throw in.

Third, catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The 22 year old catcher, drafted in the 3rd round and touted as the second best hitting catcher in the 2007 draft behind Matt Weiters, an Orioles prospect. Thus far, Lucroy has not disappointed and liek LaPorta, is a defensive renaissance from being an even higher rated prospect. Sickels rated Lucroy as a B- entering this season.

Lastly, 20 year old right handed starter, Jeremy Jeffress. I gather that Jeffress would be incredibly difficult to pry from the Brewers as he is having success in high A at a relatively young age. Sickels rated Jefress as a B prospect assuming that he is no longer a threat to be suspended for violating the leagues substance abuse program. Goldstein had the following to say while rating the first rounder a 4 star prospect,

On a pure velocity level, Jeffress ranks with any arm in the minors, as he parked his fastball consistently at 94-97 mph, and touched 100 mph on several occasions last year. He flashes a good curveball at times, and has begun to show some feel for a changeup as well, despite being very new to the pitch. He's an outstanding athlete, and his arm action is clean.

Of the four, Jeffress is presumably the most difficult to obtain. Shapiro, however, may be able to offer to rid the Brewers of the headaches Jeffers causes. Obviously Lucroy's defensive issues would have to be cleared, as the team does not need another Ryan Garko.

Given the current LaPorta for Sabathia offer, the Indians should not hesitate to make this move. Mark Shapiro should act quickly. Given the day to day uncertainty of MLB players, anything could happen in an instant which could simultaneously make Sabathia undesirable, and the Brewers from wanting to send their most coveted prospect. Given the fact that I am an Indians fan, this is a trade I will be monitoring closely.

Ray Pride Part III

Well this is too good not to share...




Although possibly this post should be called, 'No-Sox Pride'. I truly hope this guy isn't a Sox fan!

Ray Pride Part II

Nate Silver over at Baseball Prospectus discusses the success of the Rays in a much more eloquent manner then I was capable of doing a few days beforehand. And the best part, no subscription required!

What stands out to Silver is the improvements the Rays made with their defensive play, bullpen, and bench. Changes in these three areas, and recognizing exactly what the club had, allowed the club to make the right moves and fill in players at the perfect moment.

The Rays took advantage of a market which undervalues defensive play. In doing so, the Rays shuffled their roster to maximize their defensive efforts. Cementing BJ Upton in center field, ridding the roster of Delmon Young, moving Iwamura to a more natural position, and lastly, the acquisition of Jason Bartlett all added up to last years worst defensive team (and arguably the worst in baseball history) to jump all the way up to this years second best defensive team.

The next step was to solidify the bullpen. Adding Troy Percival, a veteran closer, and clubhouse 'prankster' has allowed for the rest of the bullpen to take a step back from daunting roles. Last year's top closer, Al Reyes, has been shelved for much of the 2008 season, which would have caused turmoil within the Rays bullpen. However, the addition of Percival, and last season's deadline deal of Wheeler, have taken the burden off some of the clubs young flame throwers.

Lastly, Silver points out how the Rays rid themselves of a lot of underachievers. While much has been internal, knowing that a young hitter such as Dioner Navarro was beginning to trend upwards, was a skillful understanding of talent. Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson can also be added to the list of two under achieving youngsters. Recognizing that these players were likely to regress towards the mean meant a strong improvement for the franchise.

Silver mentions that while the Rays have been fortunate with some breakouts, for the most part, this team has underachieved. Contrasting the White Sox, with Quentin and Danks, whom one has to wonder if their strong first halves were a fluke.

Silver concludes in stating,

The handful of transactions the Rays made this winter were not by any means overly complicated; in retrospect, they almost seem obvious. But they were moves made by a team that had the self-confidence to look in the mirror and like what it saw. The Rays put aside the fact that they had never won more than 70 games in a season and recognized that, on a talent-for-talent basis, they had a 40-man roster that was the envy of many clubs in baseball. They recognized that guys like Evan Longoria would be ready to start contributing immediately, and that it was not too soon to start competing.

These things are tougher than you might think, as honest self-assessment is elusive to many teams in baseball. The more commonly-seen problem is for a team to overrate the amount of talent that it has, and either compromise its future for a team that needs a lot of help rather than a little (take this year’s Mariners), or fail to improve on a roster that is due to regress to the mean (this year’s Rockies). There are also teams that take too long to flip the switch and make a run at competing, but the Rays turned things on at just the right time.

Interestingly, the other night, when my dish decided not to work during what was going to be arguably the most exciting ballgame to this point in the season (excluding the painfully long Padres-Rockies game on April 17), I decided to flip over to DRays Bay and Over the Monster. As you might imagine, DRays Bay is a blogging, fan community for the Rays, and Over the Monster takes care of Red Sox fans in the same vane. Certainly, if one were to do a websearch for similar websites, the Sox would definitely outnumber the Rays. However, both seem to be amped with content and an equal amount of people who want to pretend as if they are at the ballgame, no matter where they are.

I am not a member of either website, it was interesting to read fan reactions as the game unfolded. At Over the Monster, the fans were relishing in an outstanding start by Matsuzaka, and suggesting that Kazmir was throwing a wild pitch because he feared a player referred to as 'Tek'. Sox fans appeared to have expected the Rays to fade, doing so by focusing on regular Yankee updates. I would wager during the last Yanks-Sox series, these same people were not updating one another on the Rays. While reading through the posts up until the 6 run explosion by the Rays, the tone turned to anger, players names of whom Epstein should go out and trade for began to be thrown around. The sense of entitlement returned.

Checking in at DRays Bay had an entirely different vibe to it. Those who were discussing the game seemed content to have taken 2 of 3 from the Sox and to have increased the division lead. Only when the Rays made a sudden, and unpredictable comeback did the tone change. It wasn't until a member had pointed out FanGraphs win probability chart when the tone completely changed and the posters decided a sweep was likely.



Discovering the perspective of two entirely different fan bases during such a monumental series was definitely enjoyable. I am certain by the time last night's game began, Sox fans had grown sick of hearing about the Rays. Equally as certain, the Rays have probably never sold so much merchandise as they have in the last few days given all the national face time they are receiving.

But it was not simply the gamethread which interested me to the respective websites. I was not only interested in understanding how the fans thought, but also how those who ran and controlled the website thought.

Over the Monster had an attitude which was reflective of the fans, a sense of entitlement, 'Our team won last year, has multiple MVP candidates, and despite not winning, will win'. This is greatly reflected by a posting titled "Cause for Hope". The article, like so many written by Sox fans recently, rationalizes why it is that the Sox are superior to the Rays and why fellow fans should not fret.

Some of the spectacular, and well thought out reasons include:

1. The Red Sox are still pitching well,
2. The offense if under-performing, but it is still top-flight,
3. The Yankees are playing badly,
4. The Rays have been lucky, and
5. The Rays have flaws.

Great logic, right? There are brief explanations for each point, but to save the pain, I will only reflect on the errors, or the double standards involved.

First, the Red Sox are still pitching well. So too are the Rays. With a younger, and presumably less brittle rotation, it would be the Sox who I would assume to falter, not the Rays.

Second point, the offense is not under-performing. Could there be a few players, specifically Manny, Varitek, and Lugo who perform better in the second half then the first, definitely. But how about the exceptional performances from Pedroia, Drew, Youkilis, Ellsbury, and Lowell? Odds are, that the offense will at best even out.

Third, the Yankees are pitching badly, they are tearing the cover off the ball, and just in time for the Sox to play them for a series in the Bronx. Even a poorly performing Yanks roster will put up a fight against the Sox.

Luck then comes into the equation with the forth point. Really? So having a lineup, top to bottom of underachievers is 'lucky'? Apparently when you write blog entries at Over the Monster, you only have to do parts of your homework. The Pythagorean formula has, by most accounts, outliers. A 3 game deviation would not even stand as an outlier to the formula. Furthermore, while the author is correct in asserting that Pythag is a strong predictor of success, that predictor is more intended for vastly overachieving or underachieving teams. Take for example, the Arizona Diamondbacks of 2007.

Something to keep in mind for later, Peter Bendix writes, "Even more impressive, though, is the fact that they have played an incredibly difficult schedule."

Lastly, the author mentions that the Rays have flaws. In doing so, the author cites the Rays away win-loss record. Interestingly, the author does not mention the fact that the Red Sox have a SUBSTANTIALLY inferior road record then do the Rays. In fact, the Sox have one of the four worst road win-loss records in all of baseball. Lucky for them, they have fewer road games then home games.

In other words, if I had to wager, I would put my money on the author who wrote this having called for the Sox to win the World Series every year of his existence.

Checking back in with DRays Bay, where they utilize logic, instead of their hearts to determine what ought to happen during the second half. A DRays Bay author decides to cite two articles. One being the aforementioned Nate Silver article, the other coming from Beyond the Boxscore, another Sports Nation blogsite.

Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Peter Bendix looks at the remaining schedules of the Rays, Sox, and Yanks. There are a lot of things to take note from this article, specifically how each team fared against opponents with a .500+ record. The winning percentages against teams with a .500+ record are as follows:

• The Rays are at 61.8%
• The Sox are at 55.4%
• The Yanks are at 43.9%
  

Clearly these numbers must be taken for what they are, the past. But the authors point is that the Rays have fared extremely well against the better teams in the league. Even more obvious, the Rays have faced far and away the most good teams and have 5 series against the Indians, Mariners, and Royals combined. In other words, the Rays are set up nicely for 18 of the remaining 79 games this season.


I am spending extra time with the Rays as this is an outstanding story, and makes me sound increasingly as if I know what I am talking about. I have read a few articles which spoke of how nobody expected the Rays to be leading the division...Well I did!

Article of the Week for the Week of June 22 - 28

Article of the Week is running a few days behind due to the sudden media focus on the Rays. Because of that, I wanted to ensure that my voice was heard and those who continue to refer to the Rays as the SURPRISING Rays would recognize this isn't all that shocking to everyone.

Being able to reflect upon an article from the website I write for is thrilling. While the content is typically strong at Baseball Digest Daily, it is not often that an article truly sticks out. Recently, I reflected upon The Hot Stove League and analyzed the mid-point value of the three major trades. One of which included the Mariners sending a boat load of prospects to the Orioles for Erik Bedard.

One of those prospects happened to be Chris Tillman, who is one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. BDD's Paul Bugala sat down with the kid and talked baseball. A very interesting read.

A few highlights which make Tillman a very interesting longterm prospect. Tillman recognizes that he occasionally needs to pitch to contact. Tillman states,

That’s one thing I’d like to get better on is pitching to contact early in the count and not getting late in counts. Lately I’ve been walking people, so I have to go to the strikeout mentality so they don’t score runs. Pitching to contact is huge.

Furthermore, Tillman's intelligence appears to be off the charts. He discusses the 'mind games' that hitters play at Double A. Explaining this concept Tillman states,

Reading swings is a big part of it, but every now and then you’ll get a hitter who will take a terrible swing at a pitch and he’s doing it to set you up to get you to throw it again.

Pick up on these two aspects of pitching is vital to a pitchers success at the highest levels. That is, relying on the defense behind a pitcher, as well as being prepared to make changes on the fly will help Tillman as he rises through the minors and into the majors. With this type of recognition, in addition to his raw stuff, it wouldn't surprise me if Tillman made noise immediately in the majors. He is a prospect to keep track of over the next year or so.

MLB International Signing Day - Michel Inoa Scouting Report

According to Baseball Digest Daily,

The Oakland Athletics are scheduled to make a major player announcement in Santa Domingo, Dominican Republic on Wednesday at 11:30 AM ET. If speculation is correct, the A's will announce the signing of super prospect Michel Inoa.

In attendance at the press conference will be Billy Beane, Vice President & General Manager, Billy Owens, Director of Player Personnel, and Raymond Abreu, Director of Latin America Operations.

As I mentioned yesterday, this is all but official. By the time that most of you read this, it will have become official. The Oakland Athletics, yes, the perpetually trying to save A's, are going to dish out the largest signing bonus to an international amateur.

While evaluating the move the Athletics made during the last off season, I speculated that they were building to contend for when they move to Freemont in 2011. Looking at the pieces they acquired, it would appear all of them will be ready and/or arriving at their peak when the Athletics (whom are being speculated to be undergoing a name change) for the 2011 or 2012 season. Each of the players acquired are under team control through at least the 2011 season. Could Inoa be another piece of the puzzle? If he is in fact the real deal, why not?


Something I do not understand is why teams will not hesitate to throw out $6M or so on a North American high school kid whom they can not be certain exactly what type of mileage he has on his arm and are involved in a 'bidding war' for a 16 year old. As I mentioned yesterday, the Tigers threw a guaranteed $11M at Rick Porcello from the 2007 draft (to be paid over the next 4 years). Despite Inoa's large reported signing bonus, he will still cost the Athletics less then Porcello over the same amount of time. While Porcello is undeniably closer to the majors, and is clearly further developed then Inoa, if the scouting reports are accurate, Inoa should be the better of the two. Thus, could this be the Athletics again attempting to take advantage of the market? Why spend $11M on a Porcello when a kid like Inoa can be had for half of that?

As per Michael Lewis' Moneyball,

A poor team couldn't afford to go out shopping for big league stars in the prime of their careers. It couldn't even afford to go out and buy averagely priced players...The poor team was forced to find bargain...

Picture Billy Beane, sitting in his office at McAfee Stadium hearing about this 'once in a generation talent' that can be had for a one time price of $4M plus minor league expenses (which really won't kick in until he comes to America in a year or two). To me, it seems logical to shoot Inoa $4-5M while having him under your microscope and can be certain how much he throws and what type of pitches he is throwing.


But why this kid? What, outside of a few scouts calling him 'once in a generation' makes him so special? How are we to know he will be the next Dwight Gooden (minus the cocaine)? Saber-Scouting (SS) has a scouting report on the kid, let's go through it:

Despite being 6'7" most do not consider him to be a tall, gangly teenager. In fact, there have been numerous occasions where scouts have stated that his mechanics are under control and repeatable. According to SS, Inoa has basketball player athleticism. Combine all of this, and we have a teenager that is extremely advanced, this is mostly noted through Inoa's confirmed command, which is considered very strong.

Saber-Scouting continues by stating,

Inoa’s mechanics are clean and the ball “comes out of his hand shockingly easy,” according to another source. Inoa comes from an athletic family, has a clean and fluid arm action, and earns high marks for his makeup and work ethic.

High praise for a 16 year old.

Inoa also possesses a curve ball, which rates out as a plus pitch, and a splitter which has been called 'dirty'. Owning a plus third pitch, combined with solid command and a reported strong mound presence is what makes Inoa an easy signing, even for the small market Athletics.

Saber-Scouting continues grading out Inoa's pitches on the traditionally used 20-80 scale. The first figure is his current rating, while the second represents a projection-which is nearly impossible to do, given Inoa's lack of professional instruction:

Fastball: 55/70
Curveball: 50/60
Splitter: 45/55
Command: 45/60

Not the best, but spectacular from a 16 year old. Given some proper coaching, and monitoring of usage, and it would not come as a surprise to anyone to see Inoa in the majors before his 20th birthday. Hopefully I am still around and writing by that time.

International Signing Day

Tomorrow (July 2) begins the start of Major League Baseball's International Signing Day. Some of the majors biggest stars have come from this day, which primarily focuses upon Latin American and the Caribbean. Recent years have seen signing bonuses shoot through the roof, however they have not reached a point where the small market clubs are left with bidding on the weakest players. Instead, much of the work is done as the kids develop through team baseball academies, of which is something every team has in almost every country.

However, as the cost of players increases, a time may come where International signings are for the have's, while the have-not's will have to increase their research efforts. According to Baseball America,

Last year, three players received $1 million or more: Red Sox third baseman Michael Almanzar ($1.5 million), Yankees outfielder Kelvin De Leon ($1.1 million) and Mariners shortstop Jharmidy DeJesus ($1 million).

Wily Mo Pena's $2.44 million bonus from the Yankees in 1999 is the record for an international amateur signing...

ESPN.com Enrique Rojas writes that the International Signing Day has become auction-like for Latin American teenagers. Currently, there have been two signings as those players turned 17 prior to the signing day, thus, making them eligible free agents. As per Baseball America,

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

All this leads to an exciting time in baseball as the top international prospects can be considered as extensions of the first round. Which leads to the question of why teams hesitate to dish out first round money to international players whom the team then has superior control of. That is, signing a 16 year old and controlling what he throws, how often he throws, and how he throws for an extra 2 to 4 years.

The consensus top player to be signed on July 2nd, is Dominican right handed starting pitcher Michel Inoa. The 16 year old is already 6'7" and weighs 205lbs. In other words, the boy is already a man. Scouting reports from both Baseball America and ESPNDeportes suggest that Inoa throws 91-94mph and does so under impressive control, some project that his fastball could consistently reach 100mph once he fills out. Inoa also possesses what is being called two potentially plus pitches, which he already controls.

According to Baseball America, "Several scouts have told BA that Inoa is a once-in-a-generation talent..." Given the amount of hype, and dollars that are being thrown around in this bidding war, that sentiment is agreed upon even with Major League GM's. As is, reports are suggesting that the Oakland Athletics are poised to break the bank with a signing bonus of $4.25M. Considering the Tigers spent a guaranteed $11M on Rick Porcello-albeit over 4 years-this contract is fairly reasonable.

This $4.25M signing bonus will be the largest the Athletics have ever given to an amateur player.

ESPN provides the next top prospects to be signed outside of Inoa and the Juan Duran, the prospect the Reds signed recently. Here they are, scouting reports at ESPN.com:

2 Yorman Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Venezuela

3 Adis Portillo RHP 16 (Dec. 20, 1991) Venezuela

4 Rafael Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Dominican Republic

5 Luis Domoromo OF 16 (Feb. 4, 1992) Venezuela

6 Alvaro Aristy SS 16 (Dec. 9, 1991) Dominican Republic

7 Gustavo Pierre SS 16 (N/A) Dominican

8 Santo Franco RHP 16 (Nov. 28, 1991) Dominican

9 Swarling Jimenez LHP 16 (Nov. 27, 1991) Dominican Republic

10 Elvin Tavarez RHP 16 (Sept. 7, 1991) Dominican

11 Julio Morban OF 16 (Feb. 13, 1992) Dominican

12 Ramon Flores OF 16 (March 26, 1992) Dominican

13 Jose Valdivia RHP 16 (March 19, 1992)

14 Carlos Perez LHP 16 (Nov. 20, 1991) Dominican

I will try to announce these signings as they occur. While it will be at least 5 years before we see any of these players in the majors, many of these players will have as much value as the televised MLB draft.

Ray Pride Part I

The Tampa Bay Rays are officially on top of the baseball world. It took 3 months and a hockey season worth of games, but the media has finally given in to this young, and impressive ball club. On last evenings 'Baseball Tonight', the ESPN crew took phone calls from local Tampa celebrities including Dick Vitale and Barry Melrose (links to videos).

Entering the season, I picked the Rays to win the American League East. To me, this had been a long time coming, but I was confident the moves the club made in the offseason, coupled with years of impressive drafts would be enough for the club to win what is arguably baseball's toughest division.

Currently, the Rays are playing only a marginal amount over their heads, with an expected win-loss of 3 wins below their current standing. Expected win-loss, for those who are unfamiliar with the formula, X WL utilizes runs scored and runs allowed in a Pythagorean-like formula to calculate how many wins and loses a team should have based on essentially run differential. The formula is far from an exact science, but often times it comes as a strong predictor of things to come.

With the Rays however, the club has had very few overachievers. If one were to look up and down the roster, the batted ball data supports, for the most part, the successes the players have had to this point in the season.

Take for example the teams leading hitter, and The Outsiders favorite, Dioner Navarro. Navarro currently supports a .313 batting average. While this figure is far from what was expected from Navarro entering the 2008 season, his .337 batting average of balls in play (BABIP) supports this figure.

The hitter with the highest amount of home runs, rookie Evan Longoria. While the home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) is higher then league average, for a hitter of Longoria's ability, it is not an unsustainable figure. In fact, there are currently 23 hitters who have a higher HR/FB rate then Longoria. Of whom, only 6 have a higher line drive rate, which tells me that Longoria is consistently putting good wood on the ball.

Furthermore, the rest of the regulars, on average, are performing up to expected levels. If they are achieving at a slightly higher rate in one area, they are failing in another. Take Eric Hinske for example, his HR/FB rate is 7 points higher then his career average (which is negatively skewed by a handful of seasons where Hinske was admittedly out of shape). However, his BABIP is lower then his career average (which is also negatively skewed). Thus, while Hinske may be projected for fewer second half home runs, his hit safely rate should increase and Hinske may not see any difference in his final line.

Additionally, hitters such as BJ Upton, Carlos Pena, and Carl Crawford are all having substantially lesser seasons then they did in 2007. While much of this is regarded as regression towards the mean, it should not shock anyone if these hitters have a move successful second half in 2008 then their first half.


The starting pitching has definitely been a strong point for the Rays this season. Currently, the starting rotation-which included a month sans Kazmir-has the 8th best ERA in all of baseball. The relievers are even better, sitting at 5th overall. However, one may ask how legitimate the pitching staff is?

Ranking in the top 10 in strikeouts per nine (K/9) and the top 5 in strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB), the starters are definitely keeping runners off the bags. The starters are also preventing home runs, owning the leagues 10th lowest slugging percentage against.

Individually, unlike the hitters where there aren't any true overachievers, the Rays have a few pitchers which could stand to regress slightly. Although as a unit, regression should be very minimal. That is, when one compares the pitchers earned run average (ERA) to fielding independent pitching (FIP) it becomes obvious that the pitchers are not far exceeding expectations. For example, while Kazmir's FIP is .59 higher then his ERA, it is not unreasonable that with some luck and strong fielding that he may remain below expectations.

Whereas Kazmir, Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson are having marginally lucky seasons, James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine are having fairly unlucky seasons. Thus, one can assert that the Rays starting staff should perform at relatively the same rate in the second half of '08 as they performed in the first.

Keep in mind, that the Rays have a youthful squad, with a deep minor league system. As I mentioned in March, with the depth of this organization, the club can afford to make a couple big splash moves. At worst, the club will have traded nearly ready prospects for first round picks. At best, the club adds some veteran stability and first round picks.

How about the bullpen? Respective to the rest of the league, the relievers have a slightly worse K/9 and substantially worse K/BB. And while the club has received better then expected production out of veteran relievers Wheeler, Balfour, and Miller. Even a crash from one of the aforementioned three wouldn't really hurt the bullpen. I would also anticipate a slightly superior pitcher to be acquired near the deadline to make up for the expected crash.


My verdict is the same as it was in March, the Rays are for real. I'd love to see the club make a few moves with some of their surplus young arms. While they may be moves that bite them in 3 to 4 years, it won't be so painful where they are in the Mets situation. Also, consider what a real run in August and September will do for a fan base that has been fairly stagnant since the club's inception. Furthermore, what if the P word happens, imagine the revenues that would stream in from that, not only for 2008, but also for 2009. The new ballpark may become more of a reality with an excited fan base.

Additionally, keep in mind that the Rays do not have a whole lot of major holes within the current roster. The club we see on the field today, should not be much different from the club we see on the field in 2010. Making certain prospects untouchable is reasonable, however, if the club can find a way to land a starter in CC Sabathia, a reliever Heath Bell, Brian Fuents, or George Sherrill, and a hitter like Raul Ibanez. I am certain the Rays have enough chips to make trades such as these while not affecting the long term plans of the franchise.


In a weekly column by Jayson Stark of ESPN he concludes that the Rays are in fact for real. The debate continued with a live chat where presumably Sox fans jeered at all of the injuries the Red Sox have accumulated. Each of those who brought that point up negated the fact that Kazmir missed all of April, Pena missed all of May, and Percival missed most of May. While the injuries are less, this is to be expected as young players traditionally have fewer injury issues.

Stark, and certain Sox-haters point out that the Rays had the toughest first half schedule, that things will presumably get easier before they get harder. Furthermore, the Rays, as Stark mentions, have an outstanding record against teams with a .500+ winning percentage. In fact, the Rays have the best winning percentage against these teams.


Also working in favor of the Rays is their sudden home field advantage. While the club performs well on the road (one of 4 AL teams with a winning record away), the home record is outstanding, and has become a downright advantage since the end of April. Additionally, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus writes (subscription required) that the Rays have traditionally been particularly strong at home.

RAY PRIDE!