Trade Speculator - Goodbye Carstens - Part II

Via Baseball Digest Daily,

FoxSports.com is reporting that the Milwaukee Brewers have dealt Matt LaPorta and 2 lower level prospects to the Cleveland Indians for C.C. Sabathia. I've yet to receive confirmation of the trade but I've put in a call to Matt and hope to hear back from his soon. More details to come...

It will be interesting to see who the two additional prospects are, as well as to hear LaPorta's take on the trade. It does, however, sound as if the Brewers stood pat in not willing to deal both LaPorta and Alcides Escobar, thus crushing my dreams of seeing the greatest middle infield of all time.

I will reflect on this trade at a later date. Obviously I would like to hear what other offers were legitimately on the table as that is vital to grading a trade under these circumstances. It also can be assumed that the Indians feel as though their season is lost.

Trade Speculator - CC Sabathia - Part I

For Charles Carstens and the Indians, hopefully this Trade Speculator is part one of one. As reported by Tim Hardicourt and Anthony Witrado, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Indians are in negotiations to work out a deal that revolve around CC Sabathia. As far as names are concerned, the only reports are that the Indians have checked out Milwaukee's high A affiliate, the Brevard County Manatees. Canadian Taylor Green is a name that came up, although I can't see the Indians making a trade for prospects that are that far from the majors. Hardicourt and Witrado assert that the Brewers probably wouldn't part with Green and the other top third base prospect, Matt Gamel. However, Shapiro has been quite sly with his trade negotiations, so expect him to get a lot here.

Despite the report from Hardicourt and Witrado, Ken Rosenthal is suggesting that the Brewers have offered their top prospect, Matt LaPorta. It additionally sounds as if they are willing to send Alcides Escobar in a package for Sabathia. Rosenthal, however, suggests that an additional piece would have to come from Cleveland in this proposed package.

If the Indians could land Escobar, the middle infield that this team would sport at the end of 2009 and beyond would be, in my opinion, the best of all time. Maybe not with the sticks, but I'm certain it would be impossible to hit a ground ball up the middle on those two slick fielders. Additionally, we would see some of the most remarkable double plays ever!

Stepping away from my Cleveland colored glasses for a moment, let's take a look at what the experts have to say about LaPorta and Escobar.

Kevin Goldstein, the Baseball Prospectus writer whom I source several times a week, rated LaPorta as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization and the 4th player under 25. Keep in mind that LaPorta is in the company of All Stars Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, as well as pitcher Yovani Gallardo. In other words, if LaPorta was in any other organization, he would arguably be their top under 25 talent.

I will ignore what negative Goldstein has to say about LaPorta as it focuses on his fielding and fielding alone. The reason being, when the bat is as good as LaPorta's is projected to be, you are excused for having cement hands. Here is what Goldstein has to say,

LaPorta has true impact potential offensively, with some scouts believing that he had the best power and the best pitch recognition in last June's draft. He has the patience to wait for a pitch to hit, the bat speed to let balls carry deep into the zone, the strength to power them out to all fields, and the hand/eye coordination to hit for average as well. Moved to the outfield for the first time in his career after signing, the Brewers praised his work ethic in learning the new position, and his ability to leave his defensive issues behind him when he stepped to the plate.

'True impact potential offensively'. Given as a 23 year old, LaPorta has 19 moonshots thus far for his double A club, it appears as though he has been accurately labeled.

Sickels agrees that LaPorta's bat is legit, although like Goldstein, he questions LaPorta's glove dropping the kid to #19 on his prospect hitters list. A B+ rating is solid, if not spectacular for a hitter with such little experience within professional baseball. This only further impresses me on the success that LaPorta has had to date.

Despite recent word that the Brewers will be unwilling to part with Escobar if they are already sending LaPorta, let's quickly check out the player whom the Indians might have involved in this package.

Escobar is not going to win a triple crown any time soon. In fact, he probably never will. The lack of power, which led a scout to tell Goldstein, that Escobar is "about as strong as my sister". Furthermore, according to Goldstein, Escobar's "highly-aggressive approach limits his on-base ability. He also has a sizable platoon split, with much more effectiveness against southpaws."

The Indians would be receiving a high average, outstanding defensive short stop. This could be an addition by subtraction as it would allow them to freely shop Casey Blake and eventually move Jhonny Peralta to the hot corner.

Looking through the Brewers organization, four names stuck out to me as players I would want if I were running the Indians.

First, Zachary Braddock, a 20 year old left handed starter pitching in high A. Currently Braddock is having a mediocre season, but much of that can be blamed on poor luck and lack of control. Sickels rated Braddock as a C+ prospect entering this season, and I would imagine that rating to remain the same as of today. The strikeouts have taken a hit, but he is still young enough to turn things around in that regard.

Second, Corey Frerichs. This 22 year old reliever is dominating low A ball with an 11.72 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings). Like Braddock his walk rate is fairly high, and at Frerichs age, he may never turn into Rafael Betancourt, but from the numbers, the kid looks like a nice piece to acquire. Frerichs isn't showing up on anyones prospect lists, to his price may be low enough to get as a throw in.

Third, catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The 22 year old catcher, drafted in the 3rd round and touted as the second best hitting catcher in the 2007 draft behind Matt Weiters, an Orioles prospect. Thus far, Lucroy has not disappointed and liek LaPorta, is a defensive renaissance from being an even higher rated prospect. Sickels rated Lucroy as a B- entering this season.

Lastly, 20 year old right handed starter, Jeremy Jeffress. I gather that Jeffress would be incredibly difficult to pry from the Brewers as he is having success in high A at a relatively young age. Sickels rated Jefress as a B prospect assuming that he is no longer a threat to be suspended for violating the leagues substance abuse program. Goldstein had the following to say while rating the first rounder a 4 star prospect,

On a pure velocity level, Jeffress ranks with any arm in the minors, as he parked his fastball consistently at 94-97 mph, and touched 100 mph on several occasions last year. He flashes a good curveball at times, and has begun to show some feel for a changeup as well, despite being very new to the pitch. He's an outstanding athlete, and his arm action is clean.

Of the four, Jeffress is presumably the most difficult to obtain. Shapiro, however, may be able to offer to rid the Brewers of the headaches Jeffers causes. Obviously Lucroy's defensive issues would have to be cleared, as the team does not need another Ryan Garko.

Given the current LaPorta for Sabathia offer, the Indians should not hesitate to make this move. Mark Shapiro should act quickly. Given the day to day uncertainty of MLB players, anything could happen in an instant which could simultaneously make Sabathia undesirable, and the Brewers from wanting to send their most coveted prospect. Given the fact that I am an Indians fan, this is a trade I will be monitoring closely.

Ray Pride Part III

Well this is too good not to share...




Although possibly this post should be called, 'No-Sox Pride'. I truly hope this guy isn't a Sox fan!

Ray Pride Part II

Nate Silver over at Baseball Prospectus discusses the success of the Rays in a much more eloquent manner then I was capable of doing a few days beforehand. And the best part, no subscription required!

What stands out to Silver is the improvements the Rays made with their defensive play, bullpen, and bench. Changes in these three areas, and recognizing exactly what the club had, allowed the club to make the right moves and fill in players at the perfect moment.

The Rays took advantage of a market which undervalues defensive play. In doing so, the Rays shuffled their roster to maximize their defensive efforts. Cementing BJ Upton in center field, ridding the roster of Delmon Young, moving Iwamura to a more natural position, and lastly, the acquisition of Jason Bartlett all added up to last years worst defensive team (and arguably the worst in baseball history) to jump all the way up to this years second best defensive team.

The next step was to solidify the bullpen. Adding Troy Percival, a veteran closer, and clubhouse 'prankster' has allowed for the rest of the bullpen to take a step back from daunting roles. Last year's top closer, Al Reyes, has been shelved for much of the 2008 season, which would have caused turmoil within the Rays bullpen. However, the addition of Percival, and last season's deadline deal of Wheeler, have taken the burden off some of the clubs young flame throwers.

Lastly, Silver points out how the Rays rid themselves of a lot of underachievers. While much has been internal, knowing that a young hitter such as Dioner Navarro was beginning to trend upwards, was a skillful understanding of talent. Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson can also be added to the list of two under achieving youngsters. Recognizing that these players were likely to regress towards the mean meant a strong improvement for the franchise.

Silver mentions that while the Rays have been fortunate with some breakouts, for the most part, this team has underachieved. Contrasting the White Sox, with Quentin and Danks, whom one has to wonder if their strong first halves were a fluke.

Silver concludes in stating,

The handful of transactions the Rays made this winter were not by any means overly complicated; in retrospect, they almost seem obvious. But they were moves made by a team that had the self-confidence to look in the mirror and like what it saw. The Rays put aside the fact that they had never won more than 70 games in a season and recognized that, on a talent-for-talent basis, they had a 40-man roster that was the envy of many clubs in baseball. They recognized that guys like Evan Longoria would be ready to start contributing immediately, and that it was not too soon to start competing.

These things are tougher than you might think, as honest self-assessment is elusive to many teams in baseball. The more commonly-seen problem is for a team to overrate the amount of talent that it has, and either compromise its future for a team that needs a lot of help rather than a little (take this year’s Mariners), or fail to improve on a roster that is due to regress to the mean (this year’s Rockies). There are also teams that take too long to flip the switch and make a run at competing, but the Rays turned things on at just the right time.

Interestingly, the other night, when my dish decided not to work during what was going to be arguably the most exciting ballgame to this point in the season (excluding the painfully long Padres-Rockies game on April 17), I decided to flip over to DRays Bay and Over the Monster. As you might imagine, DRays Bay is a blogging, fan community for the Rays, and Over the Monster takes care of Red Sox fans in the same vane. Certainly, if one were to do a websearch for similar websites, the Sox would definitely outnumber the Rays. However, both seem to be amped with content and an equal amount of people who want to pretend as if they are at the ballgame, no matter where they are.

I am not a member of either website, it was interesting to read fan reactions as the game unfolded. At Over the Monster, the fans were relishing in an outstanding start by Matsuzaka, and suggesting that Kazmir was throwing a wild pitch because he feared a player referred to as 'Tek'. Sox fans appeared to have expected the Rays to fade, doing so by focusing on regular Yankee updates. I would wager during the last Yanks-Sox series, these same people were not updating one another on the Rays. While reading through the posts up until the 6 run explosion by the Rays, the tone turned to anger, players names of whom Epstein should go out and trade for began to be thrown around. The sense of entitlement returned.

Checking in at DRays Bay had an entirely different vibe to it. Those who were discussing the game seemed content to have taken 2 of 3 from the Sox and to have increased the division lead. Only when the Rays made a sudden, and unpredictable comeback did the tone change. It wasn't until a member had pointed out FanGraphs win probability chart when the tone completely changed and the posters decided a sweep was likely.



Discovering the perspective of two entirely different fan bases during such a monumental series was definitely enjoyable. I am certain by the time last night's game began, Sox fans had grown sick of hearing about the Rays. Equally as certain, the Rays have probably never sold so much merchandise as they have in the last few days given all the national face time they are receiving.

But it was not simply the gamethread which interested me to the respective websites. I was not only interested in understanding how the fans thought, but also how those who ran and controlled the website thought.

Over the Monster had an attitude which was reflective of the fans, a sense of entitlement, 'Our team won last year, has multiple MVP candidates, and despite not winning, will win'. This is greatly reflected by a posting titled "Cause for Hope". The article, like so many written by Sox fans recently, rationalizes why it is that the Sox are superior to the Rays and why fellow fans should not fret.

Some of the spectacular, and well thought out reasons include:

1. The Red Sox are still pitching well,
2. The offense if under-performing, but it is still top-flight,
3. The Yankees are playing badly,
4. The Rays have been lucky, and
5. The Rays have flaws.

Great logic, right? There are brief explanations for each point, but to save the pain, I will only reflect on the errors, or the double standards involved.

First, the Red Sox are still pitching well. So too are the Rays. With a younger, and presumably less brittle rotation, it would be the Sox who I would assume to falter, not the Rays.

Second point, the offense is not under-performing. Could there be a few players, specifically Manny, Varitek, and Lugo who perform better in the second half then the first, definitely. But how about the exceptional performances from Pedroia, Drew, Youkilis, Ellsbury, and Lowell? Odds are, that the offense will at best even out.

Third, the Yankees are pitching badly, they are tearing the cover off the ball, and just in time for the Sox to play them for a series in the Bronx. Even a poorly performing Yanks roster will put up a fight against the Sox.

Luck then comes into the equation with the forth point. Really? So having a lineup, top to bottom of underachievers is 'lucky'? Apparently when you write blog entries at Over the Monster, you only have to do parts of your homework. The Pythagorean formula has, by most accounts, outliers. A 3 game deviation would not even stand as an outlier to the formula. Furthermore, while the author is correct in asserting that Pythag is a strong predictor of success, that predictor is more intended for vastly overachieving or underachieving teams. Take for example, the Arizona Diamondbacks of 2007.

Something to keep in mind for later, Peter Bendix writes, "Even more impressive, though, is the fact that they have played an incredibly difficult schedule."

Lastly, the author mentions that the Rays have flaws. In doing so, the author cites the Rays away win-loss record. Interestingly, the author does not mention the fact that the Red Sox have a SUBSTANTIALLY inferior road record then do the Rays. In fact, the Sox have one of the four worst road win-loss records in all of baseball. Lucky for them, they have fewer road games then home games.

In other words, if I had to wager, I would put my money on the author who wrote this having called for the Sox to win the World Series every year of his existence.

Checking back in with DRays Bay, where they utilize logic, instead of their hearts to determine what ought to happen during the second half. A DRays Bay author decides to cite two articles. One being the aforementioned Nate Silver article, the other coming from Beyond the Boxscore, another Sports Nation blogsite.

Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Peter Bendix looks at the remaining schedules of the Rays, Sox, and Yanks. There are a lot of things to take note from this article, specifically how each team fared against opponents with a .500+ record. The winning percentages against teams with a .500+ record are as follows:

• The Rays are at 61.8%
• The Sox are at 55.4%
• The Yanks are at 43.9%
  

Clearly these numbers must be taken for what they are, the past. But the authors point is that the Rays have fared extremely well against the better teams in the league. Even more obvious, the Rays have faced far and away the most good teams and have 5 series against the Indians, Mariners, and Royals combined. In other words, the Rays are set up nicely for 18 of the remaining 79 games this season.


I am spending extra time with the Rays as this is an outstanding story, and makes me sound increasingly as if I know what I am talking about. I have read a few articles which spoke of how nobody expected the Rays to be leading the division...Well I did!

Article of the Week for the Week of June 22 - 28

Article of the Week is running a few days behind due to the sudden media focus on the Rays. Because of that, I wanted to ensure that my voice was heard and those who continue to refer to the Rays as the SURPRISING Rays would recognize this isn't all that shocking to everyone.

Being able to reflect upon an article from the website I write for is thrilling. While the content is typically strong at Baseball Digest Daily, it is not often that an article truly sticks out. Recently, I reflected upon The Hot Stove League and analyzed the mid-point value of the three major trades. One of which included the Mariners sending a boat load of prospects to the Orioles for Erik Bedard.

One of those prospects happened to be Chris Tillman, who is one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. BDD's Paul Bugala sat down with the kid and talked baseball. A very interesting read.

A few highlights which make Tillman a very interesting longterm prospect. Tillman recognizes that he occasionally needs to pitch to contact. Tillman states,

That’s one thing I’d like to get better on is pitching to contact early in the count and not getting late in counts. Lately I’ve been walking people, so I have to go to the strikeout mentality so they don’t score runs. Pitching to contact is huge.

Furthermore, Tillman's intelligence appears to be off the charts. He discusses the 'mind games' that hitters play at Double A. Explaining this concept Tillman states,

Reading swings is a big part of it, but every now and then you’ll get a hitter who will take a terrible swing at a pitch and he’s doing it to set you up to get you to throw it again.

Pick up on these two aspects of pitching is vital to a pitchers success at the highest levels. That is, relying on the defense behind a pitcher, as well as being prepared to make changes on the fly will help Tillman as he rises through the minors and into the majors. With this type of recognition, in addition to his raw stuff, it wouldn't surprise me if Tillman made noise immediately in the majors. He is a prospect to keep track of over the next year or so.

MLB International Signing Day - Michel Inoa Scouting Report

According to Baseball Digest Daily,

The Oakland Athletics are scheduled to make a major player announcement in Santa Domingo, Dominican Republic on Wednesday at 11:30 AM ET. If speculation is correct, the A's will announce the signing of super prospect Michel Inoa.

In attendance at the press conference will be Billy Beane, Vice President & General Manager, Billy Owens, Director of Player Personnel, and Raymond Abreu, Director of Latin America Operations.

As I mentioned yesterday, this is all but official. By the time that most of you read this, it will have become official. The Oakland Athletics, yes, the perpetually trying to save A's, are going to dish out the largest signing bonus to an international amateur.

While evaluating the move the Athletics made during the last off season, I speculated that they were building to contend for when they move to Freemont in 2011. Looking at the pieces they acquired, it would appear all of them will be ready and/or arriving at their peak when the Athletics (whom are being speculated to be undergoing a name change) for the 2011 or 2012 season. Each of the players acquired are under team control through at least the 2011 season. Could Inoa be another piece of the puzzle? If he is in fact the real deal, why not?


Something I do not understand is why teams will not hesitate to throw out $6M or so on a North American high school kid whom they can not be certain exactly what type of mileage he has on his arm and are involved in a 'bidding war' for a 16 year old. As I mentioned yesterday, the Tigers threw a guaranteed $11M at Rick Porcello from the 2007 draft (to be paid over the next 4 years). Despite Inoa's large reported signing bonus, he will still cost the Athletics less then Porcello over the same amount of time. While Porcello is undeniably closer to the majors, and is clearly further developed then Inoa, if the scouting reports are accurate, Inoa should be the better of the two. Thus, could this be the Athletics again attempting to take advantage of the market? Why spend $11M on a Porcello when a kid like Inoa can be had for half of that?

As per Michael Lewis' Moneyball,

A poor team couldn't afford to go out shopping for big league stars in the prime of their careers. It couldn't even afford to go out and buy averagely priced players...The poor team was forced to find bargain...

Picture Billy Beane, sitting in his office at McAfee Stadium hearing about this 'once in a generation talent' that can be had for a one time price of $4M plus minor league expenses (which really won't kick in until he comes to America in a year or two). To me, it seems logical to shoot Inoa $4-5M while having him under your microscope and can be certain how much he throws and what type of pitches he is throwing.


But why this kid? What, outside of a few scouts calling him 'once in a generation' makes him so special? How are we to know he will be the next Dwight Gooden (minus the cocaine)? Saber-Scouting (SS) has a scouting report on the kid, let's go through it:

Despite being 6'7" most do not consider him to be a tall, gangly teenager. In fact, there have been numerous occasions where scouts have stated that his mechanics are under control and repeatable. According to SS, Inoa has basketball player athleticism. Combine all of this, and we have a teenager that is extremely advanced, this is mostly noted through Inoa's confirmed command, which is considered very strong.

Saber-Scouting continues by stating,

Inoa’s mechanics are clean and the ball “comes out of his hand shockingly easy,” according to another source. Inoa comes from an athletic family, has a clean and fluid arm action, and earns high marks for his makeup and work ethic.

High praise for a 16 year old.

Inoa also possesses a curve ball, which rates out as a plus pitch, and a splitter which has been called 'dirty'. Owning a plus third pitch, combined with solid command and a reported strong mound presence is what makes Inoa an easy signing, even for the small market Athletics.

Saber-Scouting continues grading out Inoa's pitches on the traditionally used 20-80 scale. The first figure is his current rating, while the second represents a projection-which is nearly impossible to do, given Inoa's lack of professional instruction:

Fastball: 55/70
Curveball: 50/60
Splitter: 45/55
Command: 45/60

Not the best, but spectacular from a 16 year old. Given some proper coaching, and monitoring of usage, and it would not come as a surprise to anyone to see Inoa in the majors before his 20th birthday. Hopefully I am still around and writing by that time.

International Signing Day

Tomorrow (July 2) begins the start of Major League Baseball's International Signing Day. Some of the majors biggest stars have come from this day, which primarily focuses upon Latin American and the Caribbean. Recent years have seen signing bonuses shoot through the roof, however they have not reached a point where the small market clubs are left with bidding on the weakest players. Instead, much of the work is done as the kids develop through team baseball academies, of which is something every team has in almost every country.

However, as the cost of players increases, a time may come where International signings are for the have's, while the have-not's will have to increase their research efforts. According to Baseball America,

Last year, three players received $1 million or more: Red Sox third baseman Michael Almanzar ($1.5 million), Yankees outfielder Kelvin De Leon ($1.1 million) and Mariners shortstop Jharmidy DeJesus ($1 million).

Wily Mo Pena's $2.44 million bonus from the Yankees in 1999 is the record for an international amateur signing...

ESPN.com Enrique Rojas writes that the International Signing Day has become auction-like for Latin American teenagers. Currently, there have been two signings as those players turned 17 prior to the signing day, thus, making them eligible free agents. As per Baseball America,

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

All this leads to an exciting time in baseball as the top international prospects can be considered as extensions of the first round. Which leads to the question of why teams hesitate to dish out first round money to international players whom the team then has superior control of. That is, signing a 16 year old and controlling what he throws, how often he throws, and how he throws for an extra 2 to 4 years.

The consensus top player to be signed on July 2nd, is Dominican right handed starting pitcher Michel Inoa. The 16 year old is already 6'7" and weighs 205lbs. In other words, the boy is already a man. Scouting reports from both Baseball America and ESPNDeportes suggest that Inoa throws 91-94mph and does so under impressive control, some project that his fastball could consistently reach 100mph once he fills out. Inoa also possesses what is being called two potentially plus pitches, which he already controls.

According to Baseball America, "Several scouts have told BA that Inoa is a once-in-a-generation talent..." Given the amount of hype, and dollars that are being thrown around in this bidding war, that sentiment is agreed upon even with Major League GM's. As is, reports are suggesting that the Oakland Athletics are poised to break the bank with a signing bonus of $4.25M. Considering the Tigers spent a guaranteed $11M on Rick Porcello-albeit over 4 years-this contract is fairly reasonable.

This $4.25M signing bonus will be the largest the Athletics have ever given to an amateur player.

ESPN provides the next top prospects to be signed outside of Inoa and the Juan Duran, the prospect the Reds signed recently. Here they are, scouting reports at ESPN.com:

2 Yorman Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Venezuela

3 Adis Portillo RHP 16 (Dec. 20, 1991) Venezuela

4 Rafael Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Dominican Republic

5 Luis Domoromo OF 16 (Feb. 4, 1992) Venezuela

6 Alvaro Aristy SS 16 (Dec. 9, 1991) Dominican Republic

7 Gustavo Pierre SS 16 (N/A) Dominican

8 Santo Franco RHP 16 (Nov. 28, 1991) Dominican

9 Swarling Jimenez LHP 16 (Nov. 27, 1991) Dominican Republic

10 Elvin Tavarez RHP 16 (Sept. 7, 1991) Dominican

11 Julio Morban OF 16 (Feb. 13, 1992) Dominican

12 Ramon Flores OF 16 (March 26, 1992) Dominican

13 Jose Valdivia RHP 16 (March 19, 1992)

14 Carlos Perez LHP 16 (Nov. 20, 1991) Dominican

I will try to announce these signings as they occur. While it will be at least 5 years before we see any of these players in the majors, many of these players will have as much value as the televised MLB draft.

Ray Pride Part I

The Tampa Bay Rays are officially on top of the baseball world. It took 3 months and a hockey season worth of games, but the media has finally given in to this young, and impressive ball club. On last evenings 'Baseball Tonight', the ESPN crew took phone calls from local Tampa celebrities including Dick Vitale and Barry Melrose (links to videos).

Entering the season, I picked the Rays to win the American League East. To me, this had been a long time coming, but I was confident the moves the club made in the offseason, coupled with years of impressive drafts would be enough for the club to win what is arguably baseball's toughest division.

Currently, the Rays are playing only a marginal amount over their heads, with an expected win-loss of 3 wins below their current standing. Expected win-loss, for those who are unfamiliar with the formula, X WL utilizes runs scored and runs allowed in a Pythagorean-like formula to calculate how many wins and loses a team should have based on essentially run differential. The formula is far from an exact science, but often times it comes as a strong predictor of things to come.

With the Rays however, the club has had very few overachievers. If one were to look up and down the roster, the batted ball data supports, for the most part, the successes the players have had to this point in the season.

Take for example the teams leading hitter, and The Outsiders favorite, Dioner Navarro. Navarro currently supports a .313 batting average. While this figure is far from what was expected from Navarro entering the 2008 season, his .337 batting average of balls in play (BABIP) supports this figure.

The hitter with the highest amount of home runs, rookie Evan Longoria. While the home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) is higher then league average, for a hitter of Longoria's ability, it is not an unsustainable figure. In fact, there are currently 23 hitters who have a higher HR/FB rate then Longoria. Of whom, only 6 have a higher line drive rate, which tells me that Longoria is consistently putting good wood on the ball.

Furthermore, the rest of the regulars, on average, are performing up to expected levels. If they are achieving at a slightly higher rate in one area, they are failing in another. Take Eric Hinske for example, his HR/FB rate is 7 points higher then his career average (which is negatively skewed by a handful of seasons where Hinske was admittedly out of shape). However, his BABIP is lower then his career average (which is also negatively skewed). Thus, while Hinske may be projected for fewer second half home runs, his hit safely rate should increase and Hinske may not see any difference in his final line.

Additionally, hitters such as BJ Upton, Carlos Pena, and Carl Crawford are all having substantially lesser seasons then they did in 2007. While much of this is regarded as regression towards the mean, it should not shock anyone if these hitters have a move successful second half in 2008 then their first half.


The starting pitching has definitely been a strong point for the Rays this season. Currently, the starting rotation-which included a month sans Kazmir-has the 8th best ERA in all of baseball. The relievers are even better, sitting at 5th overall. However, one may ask how legitimate the pitching staff is?

Ranking in the top 10 in strikeouts per nine (K/9) and the top 5 in strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB), the starters are definitely keeping runners off the bags. The starters are also preventing home runs, owning the leagues 10th lowest slugging percentage against.

Individually, unlike the hitters where there aren't any true overachievers, the Rays have a few pitchers which could stand to regress slightly. Although as a unit, regression should be very minimal. That is, when one compares the pitchers earned run average (ERA) to fielding independent pitching (FIP) it becomes obvious that the pitchers are not far exceeding expectations. For example, while Kazmir's FIP is .59 higher then his ERA, it is not unreasonable that with some luck and strong fielding that he may remain below expectations.

Whereas Kazmir, Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson are having marginally lucky seasons, James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine are having fairly unlucky seasons. Thus, one can assert that the Rays starting staff should perform at relatively the same rate in the second half of '08 as they performed in the first.

Keep in mind, that the Rays have a youthful squad, with a deep minor league system. As I mentioned in March, with the depth of this organization, the club can afford to make a couple big splash moves. At worst, the club will have traded nearly ready prospects for first round picks. At best, the club adds some veteran stability and first round picks.

How about the bullpen? Respective to the rest of the league, the relievers have a slightly worse K/9 and substantially worse K/BB. And while the club has received better then expected production out of veteran relievers Wheeler, Balfour, and Miller. Even a crash from one of the aforementioned three wouldn't really hurt the bullpen. I would also anticipate a slightly superior pitcher to be acquired near the deadline to make up for the expected crash.


My verdict is the same as it was in March, the Rays are for real. I'd love to see the club make a few moves with some of their surplus young arms. While they may be moves that bite them in 3 to 4 years, it won't be so painful where they are in the Mets situation. Also, consider what a real run in August and September will do for a fan base that has been fairly stagnant since the club's inception. Furthermore, what if the P word happens, imagine the revenues that would stream in from that, not only for 2008, but also for 2009. The new ballpark may become more of a reality with an excited fan base.

Additionally, keep in mind that the Rays do not have a whole lot of major holes within the current roster. The club we see on the field today, should not be much different from the club we see on the field in 2010. Making certain prospects untouchable is reasonable, however, if the club can find a way to land a starter in CC Sabathia, a reliever Heath Bell, Brian Fuents, or George Sherrill, and a hitter like Raul Ibanez. I am certain the Rays have enough chips to make trades such as these while not affecting the long term plans of the franchise.


In a weekly column by Jayson Stark of ESPN he concludes that the Rays are in fact for real. The debate continued with a live chat where presumably Sox fans jeered at all of the injuries the Red Sox have accumulated. Each of those who brought that point up negated the fact that Kazmir missed all of April, Pena missed all of May, and Percival missed most of May. While the injuries are less, this is to be expected as young players traditionally have fewer injury issues.

Stark, and certain Sox-haters point out that the Rays had the toughest first half schedule, that things will presumably get easier before they get harder. Furthermore, the Rays, as Stark mentions, have an outstanding record against teams with a .500+ winning percentage. In fact, the Rays have the best winning percentage against these teams.


Also working in favor of the Rays is their sudden home field advantage. While the club performs well on the road (one of 4 AL teams with a winning record away), the home record is outstanding, and has become a downright advantage since the end of April. Additionally, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus writes (subscription required) that the Rays have traditionally been particularly strong at home.

RAY PRIDE!

Division by Division Recaps

Before the season began I previewed each division. I discussed the major additions and key loses teams had suffered as well as giving my prediction of how teams would finish. At what most are referring to as the 'mid way point' of the season, it feels like the appropriate time to reflect upon those predictions.

I will score my predictions utilizing the following formula. If I nail the position of the team, 1 point will be tabulated. If I am off by one place in the division, 2 points, by two places, 3 points, and so on. Whether I was over or under in my prediction will make no difference in this formula. It will be interesting to note if there are any division or league deviations. That is, whether or not I predict with the same accuracy from division to division and league to league.

Note: All standings based up to, and including, June 28, 2008.

AL East

In the comment section of this division a reader called me a 'fool'. Good for him. Really, the Jays are the only team to truly disappoint, while the Rays are my pride and joy prediction.

Pre Season Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles

Mid Point Standings
Boston Red Sox (4)
Tampa Bay Rays (2)
New York Yankees (1)
Baltimore Orioles (2)
Toronto Blue Jays (4)

I would look for the division to stay somewhat the same with the Jays passing the Orioles. The Rays are behind the Red Sox by 0.2% and could technically overtake them this coming week as they do have a game in hand.

Division Score - 13

AL Central

The Indians have disappointed everyone. Injuries and under performances have been the major culprits. While the record is worse then it should be, given the teams run differential, the club hasn't been very consistent.

Pre Season Prediction
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins

Mid Point Standings
Chicago White Sox (2)
Minnesota Twins (4)
Detroit Tigers (1)
Cleveland Indians (4)
Kansas City Royals (2)

Despite following the Central slightly closer then the rest of the American League, the results were somewhat the same. The Twins, a team whom I selected as a surprise team of 2008. The Tigers are making quite the run and will probably shake up the division a little, I still don't see them as a playoff team with that rotation and such a weak farm system.

Division Score - 13

AL West

There is a chance I live in the eastern time zone and watch very little west coast baseball. There is a chance that I underrate the Angels because their farm system continues to disappoint once the players make the show. Or maybe I just don't like the Angels of Anaheim in Los Angeles.

Pre Season Prediction
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers

Mid Point Standings
Los Angeles Angels (2)
Oakland Athletics (2)
Texas Rangers (2)
Seattle Mariners (4)

I truly do not understand what is going on in Seattle. I figured between Bedard and Hernandez the rotation would be excellent and Putz would continue to dominate in the bullpen. My pre season pick to win the Cy Young is performing at a high level, but Bedard has not brought it like he was supposed to and Putz has been awful. Oh, and the Athletics are somehow a very good ballclub.

Division Score - 10

NL East

When the Mets acquired Santana most people were writing them into the World Series. Those same people were also wondering if the Marlins could win 70 games without Cabrera. Bizzaro baseball, according to Sports Illustrated, should have been written about the National League East, instead of the American League East when one considers the predictions made by the magazine.

Pre Season Predictions
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins

Mid Point Standings
Philadelphia Phillies (1)
Florida Marlins (4)
Atlanta Braves (2)
New York Mets (2)
Washington Nationals (2)

The Nationals flat out stink and the Marlins are greatly over achieving. If the season was played on paper, looking at runs scored and allowed, the Marlins would be in forth and the Braves and Mets would bump up a slot. In other words, I would be off by the slimmest of margins.

Division Score - 11

NL Central

Probably the most passionate and outspoken fans come from the the National League Central. I was ripped up after posting this article at The Bleacher Report with comments ranging from 'saddest article', to 'insane'. Interestingly, these same people are nowhere to be found today.

Pre Season Predictions
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

Mid Point Standings
Chicago Cubs (3)
St. Louis Cardinals (2)
Milwaukee Brewers (2)
Pittsburgh Pirates (3)
Houston Astros (1)
Cincinnati Reds (3)

The Cubs are definitely surprising me, although I am confident many of the players are playing above their heads. Although the same can be said for St. Louis I suppose. All of Pittsburgh, Houston, and Cincinnati are terrible teams and are essentially interchangeable. Thus, this is a very winnable division for the Brew Crew.

Division Score - 14

NL West

Similar to the American League West, but to an even further extent, this is a division I don't see often. This division is definitely disappointing and at times, tough to watch.

Pre Season Predictions
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants

Mid Point Standings
Arizona Diamondbacks (1)
Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
San Francisco Giants (3)
Colorado Rockies (1)
San Diego Padres (3)

The Giants are in third? Wow! But outside of that, I will most likely be patting myself on the back all season. The Diamondbacks are the class of the division, with the Dodgers still in search of some legitimate power. Watch out for the Rockies as the club returns to health. A hot start to July could put them, and their deep farm system, in the CC Sabathia sweepstakes.

Division Score - 8


That I predicted the National League West with the best accuracy is extremely surprising. This is by far the division which I follow the least.

League Comparison:
American League - 36
National League - 33

In addition to best predicting the NL West, being on the ball with the entire National League is startling. A theory could be that watching so much American League baseball has created a bais with my predictions and projections. Clearly players who come through the Indians system have a soft spot in my heart, little did I know that was true about the American League in general.

At some point this week I will take a look at my award predictions and work through some updated predictions.

Trade Reflection Part Four: The Hot Stove Series - Part Two

In the previous section of Trade Reflections, I took a look at the marque trades from the 2007/08 Hot Stove League. In this series, I will focus on three pitcher for hitter swaps that occurred. Unlike the previous reflections, these trades have resulted in clear cut winners, trades which are already paying dividends.

Keep in mind, the old addage which states that a manager never trades a starting pitcher for a hitter. Especially young, high ceiling pitchers.

Immediate Dividends - Pitchers for Hitters

The Tampa Bay Rays acquire Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan from the Minnesota Twins for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.

As of 48 hours ago, this was a much closer trade. Garza was having a fine, yet unspectacular season. He has spent some time on the disabled list with what sounded like a serious elbow injury. This led to Garza having a brutal April where he walked more hitters then he struck out. The time off has clearly done wonders for Garza and he has had two of the best months of his professional career.

At 24 years old, the kid is legitimizing the high praise he received as a minor leaguer, where he rated as high as an A prospect according to John Sickels at Minor League Ball. Additionally, Keven Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus last rated Garza as an 'excellent' prospect, the best in the Twins organization entering the 2007 season. Seems like sufficient praise to me and all signs pointing to future ace.

Owning a 4.25 FIP, which is mostly due to a terrible April, Garza is heading in the direction of stardom. If he can remain healthy, he will undeniably give the Rays the best 1 thru 3 in the majors. Watching him own the Marlins on Wednesday was a treat.

Adding Bartlett to the puzzle has helped the Rays significantly. A year ago, this team was the worst fielding team in the majors. While Bartlett hasn't been without fault, his range has made the Rays one of the strongest teams up the middle.

Lastly, 22 year old Eduardo Morlan missed a month and a half of action this season and has consequently only thrown 12 innings of relief for the Rays Double A club, the Montgomery Biscuits. It appears as though the injury flared up early in the season, where the Biscuits simply let him rest, however after letting up 5 runs on April 20th, it was only a matter of time before the young Cuban was shut down. In 6.1 innings in June, Morlan has allowed 1 run, with 8 baserunners and two strikeouts. Far from dominant, but far from terrible.

The center piece going to the Twins, and one of my personal favorites, Delmon Young, has definitely disappointed in his second full major league season. At just 22 years old there is still plenty of room to grow for Delmon, but the Twins certainly expected more from the first overall pick, and one time consensus top prospect.

However, the news is not all bad with Delmon. He has taken substantial strides in both his walk and strikeout rates. In fact, his strikeout to walk ratio is bordering on league average and has shown a steady improvement this season. With a brutal home run per fly ball rate, look for Delmon to have a big second half and close the gap that Garza has created.

Following baseball quite closely, it came as a surprise to me that Harris has played in the majority of the Twins ballgames this season. This may be due to Harris, by all measures, being a fairly poor player this season. Essentially, the Twins would be no worse without Harris.

At 23 years old Pridie had a fairly strong minor league season in 2007. Splitting time between Double and Triple A Pridie displayed the numbers of a player poised to be a forth outfielder. A year later, and Pridie would struggle to earn the label "Quadruple A".

Mid-season Grade: While this trade can be reflected upon for the next 4-6 years, at this point, given that the Twins have gotten nothing from Harris and Pridie, and Garza has outperformed Young, the Rays are the clear winners. When one also considers that the Rays truly have nowhere for Delmon to play currently, and Garza has allowed the Rays to take their time with all of the prized pitching prospects, the decision becomes that much more easy to make.


The Detroit Tigers 'give away' Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez to the Atlanta Braves for Edgar Renteria.

While the Tigers received a little more name power then the Mets did when they traded away Kazmir, it wouldn't surprise me if the results remained the same. Renteria is a fine hitter and a decent defensive short stop. The move allowed the Tigers to slide the fast aging Carlos Guillen to the hot corner and the growing waste line of Miguel Cabrera to the old man corner. In fact, I would argue that the shifting of positions was the most significant part of this trade.

Renteria has performed at the level everyone outside of Detroit expected. That is, those outside of Detroit saw a hitter whom could not hold his own in the American League. Those in Detroit saw a hitter with batting title potential. The soon to be 33 year old should be counted on for a little more then replacement level production.

Meanwhile, the Braves again cleaned house. That is, consider the Braves moved prospect SUPER bust Andy Marte for Renteria, received two solid years out of Renteria and then sent him packing in the last year of his contract for Jurrjens and Hernandez. Yes Chipper, the baseball gods are sure acting against you!

I recalled watching Jurrjens pitch against Fausto Carmona and the Cleveland Indians last season and thinking to myself, 'wow, this kid looks just like Carmona!' It was everything about him, from his build to his delivery and pitches. The only thing missing was Fausto's nasty grill. Armed with only a slightly slower fastball, slider, change combination, Jurrjens has the same ridiculous movement of Carmona.

The groundball percentage isn't quite there yet, but if last nights dominant performance against the Jays is an indication of things to come, WATCH OUT!

There isn't much to say about Gorkys. He is 20 years old and succeeding while playing at a very advanced level for his age. The power leaves a little to be desired, and he could cut down on his strikeouts, but overall, the kid is doing a fine job at High A.

Mid-season Grade: Had the Tigers sent Hernandez for Renteria this trade probably would have graded out as a wash. The Braves wanted to get Yunel Escobar in the lineup, and rid themselves of Renteria's $10M contract. That the Braves also received the 22 year old Jurrjens is quite the epic heist. Even if Renteria hits the game winning single in game 7 of the World Series, the Tigers overpaid for a players name.


The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim trade Orlando Cabrera to the Chicago White Sox for Jon Garland.

The Reds-Rangers trade would have fit perfectly in here, but I already reflected on that trade. So I will make do with the Cabrera-Garland trade which came as a surprise to the baseball world. Rare is it to see two teams trade such valuable assets, but like the Braves wanting to make room for Escobar, this was a trade which was required to open up spots on the respective ballclubs.

In Garland, the Angels received an innings eater. There was a feeling after this trade that the Angels made out the better of the two given Garland's move to an easier division and into a more pitcher friendly ballpark. To this point, Garland has posted what is essentially his career averages, with the exception of his home run per fly ball rate. Something that comes as a surprise to everyone.

Garland has been steady, yet unspectacular. Quietly going about his business as the Angels "#3" starter behind Lackey and Weaver. Garland's addition nearly resulted in one of Santana or Saunders not making the club out of Spring Training, however, an injury to Kelvim Escobar allowed for the young duo to make the club. Additionally, Garland's addition has helped the Angels own the majors 5th best ERA by starters, while logging the second most innings. This acquisition will be most notable in the playoffs, when the Angels will have a second veteran in the rotation.

Similar to Garland, Cabrera has had essentially a career average season. Would the White Sox be better off with Uribe as an everyday player? Probably not. And the added depth has definitely helped this team as it leads the American League Central.

Mid-season Grade: This trade grades out as a wash, although if I was pressed to pick a winner, I would take the ChiSox. The move, as mentioned added depth to the White Sox infield. But it also allowed for Danks and Floyd to simply take a job out of Spring Training. Both pitchers have been spectacular and I am certain that not being pressured into succeeding has certainly helped. To the Angels defense, Garland filled a hole that the Escobar injury created. With middle infield deep within the Angels system, they could afford to move Cabrera. Rare is it to find a trade that works out perfectly for both sides, this may be one of them.

That's Gotta...

Grind someone's gears!

Last night at Dunn Tire Park in Buffalo, New York, home of the Triple A Buffalo Bisons, the ballgame was suspended in the bottom of the ninth with two outs. WOW! The score, however, was tied at one run apiece, so the game obviously had to be delayed. At nearly 10 PM EST, delaying the game would have been a terrible idea. However, what would have been most bothersome, is the fact that the "fridaynightbash!" was essentially ruined without the fireworks!

The fog, which should have led to a called game in the 8th inning, essential stole a victory from the Bisons. According to bisons.com,

Unfortunately for the Herd, the heaviest of the fog came a half inning too early. Buffalo led 1-0 from the second inning on before the Yanks used the foggy conditions to their advantage in the top of the ninth. With one out, Matt Carson lofted a deep fly ball that left fielder Jason Tyner never saw. After landing on the warning track, the ball bounced over the wall for a ground rule double.

Then with two outs, pinch hitter J.D. Closser hit a routine fly ball to center on a 1-2 pitch from Buffalo closer Jeff Stevens. This time it was Brad Snyder who was forced to look through the thick fog and find the ball. Unfortunately, the Bisons centerfielder was unable to and the ball landed behind him for a game-tying double.

Definitely a tough outing for the Bisons whom have been making a nice run as of late.

Will Carroll...Interesting As Always

Will Carroll, of Baseball Prospectus does a nearly daily column in which he writes about injuries within Major League Baseball. The column, titled Under the Knife, discusses the injury, how many days the player will be lost for, and the cost of this absence. Carroll points out in today's (June 27th) edition,

You'd figure that the halfway point of a season would be more notable than it is in baseball. There's no real divider, since the All-Star break comes a bit later than normal this season. The 81-game mark is close, but the 81^st game seems no different than the 82nd, not unless you're counting. It's no different for injuries—they're not up, actually, it just seems like it. The spectrum is about the same as in any other year. The Cards, Yankees, and Marlins have already lost more than 700 days to the DL, while the Dodgers have spent $22 million on the players they have on the DL. On the other side, the White Sox are leading in terms of general health, losing only 120 days to what are mostly insignificant injuries; they are one of three teams, along with the Royals and Marlins, who have lost less than $2 million so far. I'll wait until the end of the season to see how DXL and Injury Cost work out, since even half a season is too small a sample size to gauge its usefulness in analysis...

Wow, the Dodgers have $22M in injuries? While it is obvious that Jason Schmidt is taking up a great deal of that, $22M is a lot of money to have doing nothing for your club.

However, this article is not about Jason Schmidt, rather, it is about Jeff Francoeur, whom Carroll discusses and reflects upon another authors work. Carroll writes,

The interesting part of Francouer needing one contact isn't that he got it done, as detailed well by Dave O'Brien, but that it took this long for the Braves to figure out what he needed and then get it done. It's not clear if Francoeur didn't tell them he wasn't picking up the rotation of the ball, but it's been clear for a while that his odd day/night split had to have some sort of explanation. Optics is one of the lesser-known areas in sports medicine, so a lot of people will be watching Francoeur and checking their stat page for players with day/night splits of their own.

And what do these day/night splits say (AVG/OBP/SLG)?

Career:
Day - 292/325/520
Night - 267/312/422

Game Time/Year	2005	2006	2007	2008
Day	341/382/671	275/288/565	273/303/390	321/381/547
Night	280/314/491	253/295/397	301/351/466	210/259/322

As you can see from Frenchy's career line, he is a superior hitter during the day. Most notably from his power numbers. That is, Francoeur's career Isolate Power (ISO) figure sits at 228 during the day and 155 at night. In other words, Francoeur is well above average in terms of power during the day, and right around average at night. A substantial difference for a young hitter.

However, let's discover how Francoeur performs in terms of his strikeout and walk rates during these splits. This should help notice whether he truly is seeing the ball differently. Strikeout and walk rates respectively:

Career
Day - 19.1/4.3
Night - 20.5/5.4

Game Time/Year

2005

2006

2007