Ray Pride Part II

Nate Silver over at Baseball Prospectus discusses the success of the Rays in a much more eloquent manner then I was capable of doing a few days beforehand. And the best part, no subscription required!

What stands out to Silver is the improvements the Rays made with their defensive play, bullpen, and bench. Changes in these three areas, and recognizing exactly what the club had, allowed the club to make the right moves and fill in players at the perfect moment.

The Rays took advantage of a market which undervalues defensive play. In doing so, the Rays shuffled their roster to maximize their defensive efforts. Cementing BJ Upton in center field, ridding the roster of Delmon Young, moving Iwamura to a more natural position, and lastly, the acquisition of Jason Bartlett all added up to last years worst defensive team (and arguably the worst in baseball history) to jump all the way up to this years second best defensive team.

The next step was to solidify the bullpen. Adding Troy Percival, a veteran closer, and clubhouse 'prankster' has allowed for the rest of the bullpen to take a step back from daunting roles. Last year's top closer, Al Reyes, has been shelved for much of the 2008 season, which would have caused turmoil within the Rays bullpen. However, the addition of Percival, and last season's deadline deal of Wheeler, have taken the burden off some of the clubs young flame throwers.

Lastly, Silver points out how the Rays rid themselves of a lot of underachievers. While much has been internal, knowing that a young hitter such as Dioner Navarro was beginning to trend upwards, was a skillful understanding of talent. Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson can also be added to the list of two under achieving youngsters. Recognizing that these players were likely to regress towards the mean meant a strong improvement for the franchise.

Silver mentions that while the Rays have been fortunate with some breakouts, for the most part, this team has underachieved. Contrasting the White Sox, with Quentin and Danks, whom one has to wonder if their strong first halves were a fluke.

Silver concludes in stating,

The handful of transactions the Rays made this winter were not by any means overly complicated; in retrospect, they almost seem obvious. But they were moves made by a team that had the self-confidence to look in the mirror and like what it saw. The Rays put aside the fact that they had never won more than 70 games in a season and recognized that, on a talent-for-talent basis, they had a 40-man roster that was the envy of many clubs in baseball. They recognized that guys like Evan Longoria would be ready to start contributing immediately, and that it was not too soon to start competing.

These things are tougher than you might think, as honest self-assessment is elusive to many teams in baseball. The more commonly-seen problem is for a team to overrate the amount of talent that it has, and either compromise its future for a team that needs a lot of help rather than a little (take this year’s Mariners), or fail to improve on a roster that is due to regress to the mean (this year’s Rockies). There are also teams that take too long to flip the switch and make a run at competing, but the Rays turned things on at just the right time.

Interestingly, the other night, when my dish decided not to work during what was going to be arguably the most exciting ballgame to this point in the season (excluding the painfully long Padres-Rockies game on April 17), I decided to flip over to DRays Bay and Over the Monster. As you might imagine, DRays Bay is a blogging, fan community for the Rays, and Over the Monster takes care of Red Sox fans in the same vane. Certainly, if one were to do a websearch for similar websites, the Sox would definitely outnumber the Rays. However, both seem to be amped with content and an equal amount of people who want to pretend as if they are at the ballgame, no matter where they are.

I am not a member of either website, it was interesting to read fan reactions as the game unfolded. At Over the Monster, the fans were relishing in an outstanding start by Matsuzaka, and suggesting that Kazmir was throwing a wild pitch because he feared a player referred to as 'Tek'. Sox fans appeared to have expected the Rays to fade, doing so by focusing on regular Yankee updates. I would wager during the last Yanks-Sox series, these same people were not updating one another on the Rays. While reading through the posts up until the 6 run explosion by the Rays, the tone turned to anger, players names of whom Epstein should go out and trade for began to be thrown around. The sense of entitlement returned.

Checking in at DRays Bay had an entirely different vibe to it. Those who were discussing the game seemed content to have taken 2 of 3 from the Sox and to have increased the division lead. Only when the Rays made a sudden, and unpredictable comeback did the tone change. It wasn't until a member had pointed out FanGraphs win probability chart when the tone completely changed and the posters decided a sweep was likely.



Discovering the perspective of two entirely different fan bases during such a monumental series was definitely enjoyable. I am certain by the time last night's game began, Sox fans had grown sick of hearing about the Rays. Equally as certain, the Rays have probably never sold so much merchandise as they have in the last few days given all the national face time they are receiving.

But it was not simply the gamethread which interested me to the respective websites. I was not only interested in understanding how the fans thought, but also how those who ran and controlled the website thought.

Over the Monster had an attitude which was reflective of the fans, a sense of entitlement, 'Our team won last year, has multiple MVP candidates, and despite not winning, will win'. This is greatly reflected by a posting titled "Cause for Hope". The article, like so many written by Sox fans recently, rationalizes why it is that the Sox are superior to the Rays and why fellow fans should not fret.

Some of the spectacular, and well thought out reasons include:

1. The Red Sox are still pitching well,
2. The offense if under-performing, but it is still top-flight,
3. The Yankees are playing badly,
4. The Rays have been lucky, and
5. The Rays have flaws.

Great logic, right? There are brief explanations for each point, but to save the pain, I will only reflect on the errors, or the double standards involved.

First, the Red Sox are still pitching well. So too are the Rays. With a younger, and presumably less brittle rotation, it would be the Sox who I would assume to falter, not the Rays.

Second point, the offense is not under-performing. Could there be a few players, specifically Manny, Varitek, and Lugo who perform better in the second half then the first, definitely. But how about the exceptional performances from Pedroia, Drew, Youkilis, Ellsbury, and Lowell? Odds are, that the offense will at best even out.

Third, the Yankees are pitching badly, they are tearing the cover off the ball, and just in time for the Sox to play them for a series in the Bronx. Even a poorly performing Yanks roster will put up a fight against the Sox.

Luck then comes into the equation with the forth point. Really? So having a lineup, top to bottom of underachievers is 'lucky'? Apparently when you write blog entries at Over the Monster, you only have to do parts of your homework. The Pythagorean formula has, by most accounts, outliers. A 3 game deviation would not even stand as an outlier to the formula. Furthermore, while the author is correct in asserting that Pythag is a strong predictor of success, that predictor is more intended for vastly overachieving or underachieving teams. Take for example, the Arizona Diamondbacks of 2007.

Something to keep in mind for later, Peter Bendix writes, "Even more impressive, though, is the fact that they have played an incredibly difficult schedule."

Lastly, the author mentions that the Rays have flaws. In doing so, the author cites the Rays away win-loss record. Interestingly, the author does not mention the fact that the Red Sox have a SUBSTANTIALLY inferior road record then do the Rays. In fact, the Sox have one of the four worst road win-loss records in all of baseball. Lucky for them, they have fewer road games then home games.

In other words, if I had to wager, I would put my money on the author who wrote this having called for the Sox to win the World Series every year of his existence.

Checking back in with DRays Bay, where they utilize logic, instead of their hearts to determine what ought to happen during the second half. A DRays Bay author decides to cite two articles. One being the aforementioned Nate Silver article, the other coming from Beyond the Boxscore, another Sports Nation blogsite.

Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Peter Bendix looks at the remaining schedules of the Rays, Sox, and Yanks. There are a lot of things to take note from this article, specifically how each team fared against opponents with a .500+ record. The winning percentages against teams with a .500+ record are as follows:

• The Rays are at 61.8%
• The Sox are at 55.4%
• The Yanks are at 43.9%
  

Clearly these numbers must be taken for what they are, the past. But the authors point is that the Rays have fared extremely well against the better teams in the league. Even more obvious, the Rays have faced far and away the most good teams and have 5 series against the Indians, Mariners, and Royals combined. In other words, the Rays are set up nicely for 18 of the remaining 79 games this season.


I am spending extra time with the Rays as this is an outstanding story, and makes me sound increasingly as if I know what I am talking about. I have read a few articles which spoke of how nobody expected the Rays to be leading the division...Well I did!

Article of the Week for the Week of June 22 - 28

Article of the Week is running a few days behind due to the sudden media focus on the Rays. Because of that, I wanted to ensure that my voice was heard and those who continue to refer to the Rays as the SURPRISING Rays would recognize this isn't all that shocking to everyone.

Being able to reflect upon an article from the website I write for is thrilling. While the content is typically strong at Baseball Digest Daily, it is not often that an article truly sticks out. Recently, I reflected upon The Hot Stove League and analyzed the mid-point value of the three major trades. One of which included the Mariners sending a boat load of prospects to the Orioles for Erik Bedard.

One of those prospects happened to be Chris Tillman, who is one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. BDD's Paul Bugala sat down with the kid and talked baseball. A very interesting read.

A few highlights which make Tillman a very interesting longterm prospect. Tillman recognizes that he occasionally needs to pitch to contact. Tillman states,

That’s one thing I’d like to get better on is pitching to contact early in the count and not getting late in counts. Lately I’ve been walking people, so I have to go to the strikeout mentality so they don’t score runs. Pitching to contact is huge.

Furthermore, Tillman's intelligence appears to be off the charts. He discusses the 'mind games' that hitters play at Double A. Explaining this concept Tillman states,

Reading swings is a big part of it, but every now and then you’ll get a hitter who will take a terrible swing at a pitch and he’s doing it to set you up to get you to throw it again.

Pick up on these two aspects of pitching is vital to a pitchers success at the highest levels. That is, relying on the defense behind a pitcher, as well as being prepared to make changes on the fly will help Tillman as he rises through the minors and into the majors. With this type of recognition, in addition to his raw stuff, it wouldn't surprise me if Tillman made noise immediately in the majors. He is a prospect to keep track of over the next year or so.

MLB International Signing Day - Michel Inoa Scouting Report

According to Baseball Digest Daily,

The Oakland Athletics are scheduled to make a major player announcement in Santa Domingo, Dominican Republic on Wednesday at 11:30 AM ET. If speculation is correct, the A's will announce the signing of super prospect Michel Inoa.

In attendance at the press conference will be Billy Beane, Vice President & General Manager, Billy Owens, Director of Player Personnel, and Raymond Abreu, Director of Latin America Operations.

As I mentioned yesterday, this is all but official. By the time that most of you read this, it will have become official. The Oakland Athletics, yes, the perpetually trying to save A's, are going to dish out the largest signing bonus to an international amateur.

While evaluating the move the Athletics made during the last off season, I speculated that they were building to contend for when they move to Freemont in 2011. Looking at the pieces they acquired, it would appear all of them will be ready and/or arriving at their peak when the Athletics (whom are being speculated to be undergoing a name change) for the 2011 or 2012 season. Each of the players acquired are under team control through at least the 2011 season. Could Inoa be another piece of the puzzle? If he is in fact the real deal, why not?


Something I do not understand is why teams will not hesitate to throw out $6M or so on a North American high school kid whom they can not be certain exactly what type of mileage he has on his arm and are involved in a 'bidding war' for a 16 year old. As I mentioned yesterday, the Tigers threw a guaranteed $11M at Rick Porcello from the 2007 draft (to be paid over the next 4 years). Despite Inoa's large reported signing bonus, he will still cost the Athletics less then Porcello over the same amount of time. While Porcello is undeniably closer to the majors, and is clearly further developed then Inoa, if the scouting reports are accurate, Inoa should be the better of the two. Thus, could this be the Athletics again attempting to take advantage of the market? Why spend $11M on a Porcello when a kid like Inoa can be had for half of that?

As per Michael Lewis' Moneyball,

A poor team couldn't afford to go out shopping for big league stars in the prime of their careers. It couldn't even afford to go out and buy averagely priced players...The poor team was forced to find bargain...

Picture Billy Beane, sitting in his office at McAfee Stadium hearing about this 'once in a generation talent' that can be had for a one time price of $4M plus minor league expenses (which really won't kick in until he comes to America in a year or two). To me, it seems logical to shoot Inoa $4-5M while having him under your microscope and can be certain how much he throws and what type of pitches he is throwing.


But why this kid? What, outside of a few scouts calling him 'once in a generation' makes him so special? How are we to know he will be the next Dwight Gooden (minus the cocaine)? Saber-Scouting (SS) has a scouting report on the kid, let's go through it:

Despite being 6'7" most do not consider him to be a tall, gangly teenager. In fact, there have been numerous occasions where scouts have stated that his mechanics are under control and repeatable. According to SS, Inoa has basketball player athleticism. Combine all of this, and we have a teenager that is extremely advanced, this is mostly noted through Inoa's confirmed command, which is considered very strong.

Saber-Scouting continues by stating,

Inoa’s mechanics are clean and the ball “comes out of his hand shockingly easy,” according to another source. Inoa comes from an athletic family, has a clean and fluid arm action, and earns high marks for his makeup and work ethic.

High praise for a 16 year old.

Inoa also possesses a curve ball, which rates out as a plus pitch, and a splitter which has been called 'dirty'. Owning a plus third pitch, combined with solid command and a reported strong mound presence is what makes Inoa an easy signing, even for the small market Athletics.

Saber-Scouting continues grading out Inoa's pitches on the traditionally used 20-80 scale. The first figure is his current rating, while the second represents a projection-which is nearly impossible to do, given Inoa's lack of professional instruction:

Fastball: 55/70
Curveball: 50/60
Splitter: 45/55
Command: 45/60

Not the best, but spectacular from a 16 year old. Given some proper coaching, and monitoring of usage, and it would not come as a surprise to anyone to see Inoa in the majors before his 20th birthday. Hopefully I am still around and writing by that time.

International Signing Day

Tomorrow (July 2) begins the start of Major League Baseball's International Signing Day. Some of the majors biggest stars have come from this day, which primarily focuses upon Latin American and the Caribbean. Recent years have seen signing bonuses shoot through the roof, however they have not reached a point where the small market clubs are left with bidding on the weakest players. Instead, much of the work is done as the kids develop through team baseball academies, of which is something every team has in almost every country.

However, as the cost of players increases, a time may come where International signings are for the have's, while the have-not's will have to increase their research efforts. According to Baseball America,

Last year, three players received $1 million or more: Red Sox third baseman Michael Almanzar ($1.5 million), Yankees outfielder Kelvin De Leon ($1.1 million) and Mariners shortstop Jharmidy DeJesus ($1 million).

Wily Mo Pena's $2.44 million bonus from the Yankees in 1999 is the record for an international amateur signing...

ESPN.com Enrique Rojas writes that the International Signing Day has become auction-like for Latin American teenagers. Currently, there have been two signings as those players turned 17 prior to the signing day, thus, making them eligible free agents. As per Baseball America,

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

All this leads to an exciting time in baseball as the top international prospects can be considered as extensions of the first round. Which leads to the question of why teams hesitate to dish out first round money to international players whom the team then has superior control of. That is, signing a 16 year old and controlling what he throws, how often he throws, and how he throws for an extra 2 to 4 years.

The consensus top player to be signed on July 2nd, is Dominican right handed starting pitcher Michel Inoa. The 16 year old is already 6'7" and weighs 205lbs. In other words, the boy is already a man. Scouting reports from both Baseball America and ESPNDeportes suggest that Inoa throws 91-94mph and does so under impressive control, some project that his fastball could consistently reach 100mph once he fills out. Inoa also possesses what is being called two potentially plus pitches, which he already controls.

According to Baseball America, "Several scouts have told BA that Inoa is a once-in-a-generation talent..." Given the amount of hype, and dollars that are being thrown around in this bidding war, that sentiment is agreed upon even with Major League GM's. As is, reports are suggesting that the Oakland Athletics are poised to break the bank with a signing bonus of $4.25M. Considering the Tigers spent a guaranteed $11M on Rick Porcello-albeit over 4 years-this contract is fairly reasonable.

This $4.25M signing bonus will be the largest the Athletics have ever given to an amateur player.

ESPN provides the next top prospects to be signed outside of Inoa and the Juan Duran, the prospect the Reds signed recently. Here they are, scouting reports at ESPN.com:

2 Yorman Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Venezuela

3 Adis Portillo RHP 16 (Dec. 20, 1991) Venezuela

4 Rafael Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Dominican Republic

5 Luis Domoromo OF 16 (Feb. 4, 1992) Venezuela

6 Alvaro Aristy SS 16 (Dec. 9, 1991) Dominican Republic

7 Gustavo Pierre SS 16 (N/A) Dominican

8 Santo Franco RHP 16 (Nov. 28, 1991) Dominican

9 Swarling Jimenez LHP 16 (Nov. 27, 1991) Dominican Republic

10 Elvin Tavarez RHP 16 (Sept. 7, 1991) Dominican

11 Julio Morban OF 16 (Feb. 13, 1992) Dominican

12 Ramon Flores OF 16 (March 26, 1992) Dominican

13 Jose Valdivia RHP 16 (March 19, 1992)

14 Carlos Perez LHP 16 (Nov. 20, 1991) Dominican

I will try to announce these signings as they occur. While it will be at least 5 years before we see any of these players in the majors, many of these players will have as much value as the televised MLB draft.

Ray Pride Part I

The Tampa Bay Rays are officially on top of the baseball world. It took 3 months and a hockey season worth of games, but the media has finally given in to this young, and impressive ball club. On last evenings 'Baseball Tonight', the ESPN crew took phone calls from local Tampa celebrities including Dick Vitale and Barry Melrose (links to videos).

Entering the season, I picked the Rays to win the American League East. To me, this had been a long time coming, but I was confident the moves the club made in the offseason, coupled with years of impressive drafts would be enough for the club to win what is arguably baseball's toughest division.

Currently, the Rays are playing only a marginal amount over their heads, with an expected win-loss of 3 wins below their current standing. Expected win-loss, for those who are unfamiliar with the formula, X WL utilizes runs scored and runs allowed in a Pythagorean-like formula to calculate how many wins and loses a team should have based on essentially run differential. The formula is far from an exact science, but often times it comes as a strong predictor of things to come.

With the Rays however, the club has had very few overachievers. If one were to look up and down the roster, the batted ball data supports, for the most part, the successes the players have had to this point in the season.

Take for example the teams leading hitter, and The Outsiders favorite, Dioner Navarro. Navarro currently supports a .313 batting average. While this figure is far from what was expected from Navarro entering the 2008 season, his .337 batting average of balls in play (BABIP) supports this figure.

The hitter with the highest amount of home runs, rookie Evan Longoria. While the home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) is higher then league average, for a hitter of Longoria's ability, it is not an unsustainable figure. In fact, there are currently 23 hitters who have a higher HR/FB rate then Longoria. Of whom, only 6 have a higher line drive rate, which tells me that Longoria is consistently putting good wood on the ball.

Furthermore, the rest of the regulars, on average, are performing up to expected levels. If they are achieving at a slightly higher rate in one area, they are failing in another. Take Eric Hinske for example, his HR/FB rate is 7 points higher then his career average (which is negatively skewed by a handful of seasons where Hinske was admittedly out of shape). However, his BABIP is lower then his career average (which is also negatively skewed). Thus, while Hinske may be projected for fewer second half home runs, his hit safely rate should increase and Hinske may not see any difference in his final line.

Additionally, hitters such as BJ Upton, Carlos Pena, and Carl Crawford are all having substantially lesser seasons then they did in 2007. While much of this is regarded as regression towards the mean, it should not shock anyone if these hitters have a move successful second half in 2008 then their first half.


The starting pitching has definitely been a strong point for the Rays this season. Currently, the starting rotation-which included a month sans Kazmir-has the 8th best ERA in all of baseball. The relievers are even better, sitting at 5th overall. However, one may ask how legitimate the pitching staff is?

Ranking in the top 10 in strikeouts per nine (K/9) and the top 5 in strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB), the starters are definitely keeping runners off the bags. The starters are also preventing home runs, owning the leagues 10th lowest slugging percentage against.

Individually, unlike the hitters where there aren't any true overachievers, the Rays have a few pitchers which could stand to regress slightly. Although as a unit, regression should be very minimal. That is, when one compares the pitchers earned run average (ERA) to fielding independent pitching (FIP) it becomes obvious that the pitchers are not far exceeding expectations. For example, while Kazmir's FIP is .59 higher then his ERA, it is not unreasonable that with some luck and strong fielding that he may remain below expectations.

Whereas Kazmir, Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson are having marginally lucky seasons, James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine are having fairly unlucky seasons. Thus, one can assert that the Rays starting staff should perform at relatively the same rate in the second half of '08 as they performed in the first.

Keep in mind, that the Rays have a youthful squad, with a deep minor league system. As I mentioned in March, with the depth of this organization, the club can afford to make a couple big splash moves. At worst, the club will have traded nearly ready prospects for first round picks. At best, the club adds some veteran stability and first round picks.

How about the bullpen? Respective to the rest of the league, the relievers have a slightly worse K/9 and substantially worse K/BB. And while the club has received better then expected production out of veteran relievers Wheeler, Balfour, and Miller. Even a crash from one of the aforementioned three wouldn't really hurt the bullpen. I would also anticipate a slightly superior pitcher to be acquired near the deadline to make up for the expected crash.


My verdict is the same as it was in March, the Rays are for real. I'd love to see the club make a few moves with some of their surplus young arms. While they may be moves that bite them in 3 to 4 years, it won't be so painful where they are in the Mets situation. Also, consider what a real run in August and September will do for a fan base that has been fairly stagnant since the club's inception. Furthermore, what if the P word happens, imagine the revenues that would stream in from that, not only for 2008, but also for 2009. The new ballpark may become more of a reality with an excited fan base.

Additionally, keep in mind that the Rays do not have a whole lot of major holes within the current roster. The club we see on the field today, should not be much different from the club we see on the field in 2010. Making certain prospects untouchable is reasonable, however, if the club can find a way to land a starter in CC Sabathia, a reliever Heath Bell, Brian Fuents, or George Sherrill, and a hitter like Raul Ibanez. I am certain the Rays have enough chips to make trades such as these while not affecting the long term plans of the franchise.


In a weekly column by Jayson Stark of ESPN he concludes that the Rays are in fact for real. The debate continued with a live chat where presumably Sox fans jeered at all of the injuries the Red Sox have accumulated. Each of those who brought that point up negated the fact that Kazmir missed all of April, Pena missed all of May, and Percival missed most of May. While the injuries are less, this is to be expected as young players traditionally have fewer injury issues.

Stark, and certain Sox-haters point out that the Rays had the toughest first half schedule, that things will presumably get easier before they get harder. Furthermore, the Rays, as Stark mentions, have an outstanding record against teams with a .500+ winning percentage. In fact, the Rays have the best winning percentage against these teams.


Also working in favor of the Rays is their sudden home field advantage. While the club performs well on the road (one of 4 AL teams with a winning record away), the home record is outstanding, and has become a downright advantage since the end of April. Additionally, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus writes (subscription required) that the Rays have traditionally been particularly strong at home.

RAY PRIDE!