Article of the Week for the Week of June 29 - July 5

The Hardball Times author Sal Baxamusa pens an article titled "Good team, Bad Team, Glad team, Sad Team".

So what makes a good team? What allows for a team to win ballgames? Baxamusa asserts,

Three things are required for a team to win a lot of baseball games:

1. Have a lot of talented players.
2. Have those players play well.
3. Have more runs than the other team at the end of games.

'Have more runs than the other team at the end of games'.

Trade Speculator - Hello LaPorta! - Part III

It's official, Matt LaPorta is now an Indian. Along with LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and a player to be named later (PTBNL) were traded from Milwaukee to Cleveland for CC Sabathia. My initial reaction is, 'great job Shapiro', despite not naming any one of the four prospects that I was looking forward to seeing don Chief Wahoo.

The trade is being compared to the last time Cleveland traded an ace, back in 2002 when Bartolo Colon was moved to the Expos. During the Indians press conference, Shapiro did his best to shoot down that speculation, citing the unique situation with the Expos and a changing environment in baseball in general.

Shapiro additionally stated that the trade timing was vital. He stated,

Two of (the teams) clearly stated, that the player had more value to them now. That they may not be in it at this level, or may not be in it at all in two or three weeks.

It will be interesting to hear the rumors of who was offered by other teams, but for now, let's reflect on the trade as is. It will also be of interest to see what other trades occur, be it AJ Burnett, Erik Bedard, or a move that is from left field.

The Brewers landed the best available pitcher, which immediately makes them look good. The keystone of the trade was a player whom the front office was not sure where he would play. Between Fielder, Braun, and Hart, the positions LaPorta is capable of playing were filled for what appears to be long term.

That said, CC Sabathia will come in, and give Milwaukee a legitimate 1-2 punch atop their rotation. If Sheets can remain healthy, this is arguably the top pair in all of baseball (although I am admittedly biased). Even still, Sabathia provides insurance in the event that Sheets does go down with an injury. This also adds some variety to a fairly righty-heavy rotation.

Clearly there cannot be enough said about Sabathia. He is an outstanding hurler who will eat innings and if he continues on his current roll, will absolutely shred apart the National League. Playing in what is a fairly neutral park also will not hurt Sabathia's production.

This deal also makes sense for the Brewers as they have been outstanding at drafting lately, and even if they are unable to resign Sabathia, the picks they will receive will restock the club. The additional revenue from a legitimate post season push, and potential birth will also help this rebuilt franchise.

Sitting only 3.5 games behind the Cubs for first, the Brewers are legitimate contenders in the terrible National League. Some improvements from underachieving players and a trade to help out the bullpen, and this team should be the National Leagues representative in the World Series.

In return for the big man, Shapiro and the Indians grabbed one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball as well as two, possibly three sound prospects.

Matt LaPorta is a position-less power hitter who has zoomed through the minors, rapidly reaching Double A. He was drafted in the first round of 2007 and in 108 minor league games, LaPorta has quickly adjusted to swinging wood, hitting 31 home runs. At 23 years old, LaPorta is clearly one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

LaPorta's stock entering the draft was obviously high. He was drafted in the 14th round of the 2006 draft by the Boston Red Sox, after what is being called an 'injury riddled junior year'. Obviously it was a wise decision as LaPorta ended up being drafted nearly 400 picks earlier by the Brewers. Interestingly, LaPorta was still viewed as a first round pick in 2006.

Kevin Goldstein rated LaPorta as the #15 prospect entering the 2007 draft, citing his outstanding senior season as the reason why. Goldstein called notice to LaPorta's 20 home runs in 169 at bats, coupled with 16 strikeouts. As a side note, home run to strikeout ratio is definitely an underutilized statistic. All that being said, LaPorta was tabbed as the "arguably the best pure hitter in the draft".

The scouting report on LaPorta at the time stated,

LaPorta has as much power as any bat, especially from the college ranks, in this draft class. He's got power to all fields and can hit the ball out of any ballpark with any kind of bat.

And,

He may never win a gold glove, but he's been OK at first defensively this year....Unless someone thinks he can play another position -- not a common belief -- LaPorta is limited to first base or DH duties in the future.

Nobody is going to argue that LaPorta's defensive abilities are minimal at best. But the best claim appears courtesy of Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein who reminds readers that LaPorta has made an alarmingly low amount of put outs this season. Thus asserting that LaPorta's range/awareness are minimal. Welcome to the American League kid!

Despite the defensive issues, LaPorta was tabbed as not needing a lot of time in the minors. This is good news for the Indians who could use LaPorta's power sooner, rather then later.

It is probably a good idea that the Brewers traded Zach Jackson, as his existence within the organization would have led to a lot of confusion with Zach Johnson. Both are young lefty pitchers, the one being a first round pick, the other being around to confuse the accounting department.

Zach Jackson began his professional career with an outstanding start in the Blue Jays minor league system. During his first season of pro ball, he went from High A to Triple A. This was clearly a mistake by the Jays as Jackson should have come along much slower. The club ended up trading him after his first season to the Brewers in the Lyle Overbay trade.

The Brewers didn't do Jackson any favors, keeping him at Triple A as a struggling 23 year old. This damage has been particularly noted as Jackson's career high in innings pitched stands at under 170, during his age 24 season in 2007.

John Sickels rated Jackson as a B prospect for his first season in the Brewers system. A nice grade for such a young pitcher, but that grade has dropped to a C grade entering this season.

Jackson gives the Indians a major league ready left handed pitcher, but essentially nothing else. Being predominantly used out of the bullpen this season, it will be interesting to see what the Indians have in mind with Jackson. Obviously Shapiro did his homework, let's see if he was right.

Young righty reliever Robert Bryson has taken a step back during his age 20 season, however has still been effective. Sickels rated Bryson as a C+ prospect this season, although I'm not certain if that is more reflective of Sickels opinion on 19 year old relievers, or on a purely stuff analysis.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus rated Bryson as the 10th best prospect in the Brewers organization. Here is what Goldstein wrote about Bryson entering this season,

Year In Review: A $300,000 draft-and-follow from the gambit's last season in existence, Bryson looked to be worth every penny in his pro debut.
The Good: Bryson offers plenty to dream on. He has strong mechanics with a good leg drive and quick, fluid arm action, which allows him to pound the strike zone with 91-94 mph fastballs while occasionally hitting 96 when he rears back for something extra. He shows some feel for a slider, and seems to bring his entire game a step forward in pressure situations.
The Bad: Because he's from Delaware and has just one year of junior college experience, Bryson is pretty unrefined. He needs to find much greater consistency with his breaking ball, and his changeup is rudimentary, which gives him problems against left-handed hitters. More than anything else, he just needs innings. He has a stocky build, and might need to watch his conditioning down the road.
Fun Fact: In Bryson's final start for Seminola College, he struck out 12 over eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits–-while throwing 132 pitches.
Perfect World Projection: Bryson's ceiling is considerably high, but he's also far from it.
Timetable: Bryson will make his highly-anticipated full-season debut at Low-A.

The gamble certainly has paid off for the Brewers, although I wonder what they saw his long term role as. Shapiro tabbed him as a 'reliever', but Bryson appears to be spending a decent amount of time logging long innings. Overall, it feels as if Bryson is a lot like the Indians' Jensen Lewis, which isn't a bad thing at all.

Lastly, the PTBNL, apparently this was a vital part of the trade and it will be interesting to see who the player is. Shapiro is quoted as saying, "the deal doesn't get done without the" PTBNL. Typically teams are provided with a list of players whom they can scout slightly closer and pick a player from that list. The Indians apparently have until the end of the season to make their decision, although from the sounds of things, the decision is already made. Chances are, the player is playing at a low level of the minors, and Shapiro wants to get a closer look at him.

That being the case, two of the four players I mentioned previously would still be in play. Braddock, a personal favorite of mine, and Frerichs, a player whom intrigues me to a great extent. As a side note, I think the Brewers have corned the market on players named 'Zach', wow!

Clearly this was the best trade on the table, and as I mentioned, a trade Shapiro HAD to pull the trigger on. Waiting, could have given the Brewers cold feet, or could have resulted in a Sabathia injury. In fact, a solid Tribe winning streak would have made it difficult for Shapiro to pull the trigger on this deal.

However, during the press conference, Shapiro discussed why he choose to trade Sabathia rather then hold him on for draft picks. He states that between the expected time frame of a drafted player (3-5 years) as well as development were important factors. Shapiro claims that even a player moving up to High A ball is far ahead of player to be drafted next season.


As an Indians fan, I love this trade. I feel as though there really isn't a winner or a loser. The Brewers should be able to replace LaPorta, Bryson, and the PTBNL with the compensatory picks, not requiring any one of them immediately. The Indians have more pressing needs and will benefit from LaPorta, who immediately becomes the clubs #1 prospect and strengthens a solid minor league system (I will provide an Indians prospect list after this week).

As a supporter/bandwagoner of the Tampa Bay Rays, this trade also works out well. The Sox, Yanks, etc are now out of the Sabathia sweepstakes. Additionally, with 6 games remaining against the Indians, the odds of facing Sabathia at least once were substantial. Now the Rays will benefit from facing Jeff Weaver at least once...Not a terrible turn of events for the Rays despite a heart breaking loss this afternoon.

Update - 07/07/08 - 5:15PM EST
According to MLB.com, the PTBNL is reported to be either Taylor Green or Michael Brantley, "both of whom are considered prime prospects." From what I can see, both would be outstanding additions and would have a promising big league career ahead.

Trade Speculator - Goodbye Carstens - Part II

Via Baseball Digest Daily,

FoxSports.com is reporting that the Milwaukee Brewers have dealt Matt LaPorta and 2 lower level prospects to the Cleveland Indians for C.C. Sabathia. I've yet to receive confirmation of the trade but I've put in a call to Matt and hope to hear back from his soon. More details to come...

It will be interesting to see who the two additional prospects are, as well as to hear LaPorta's take on the trade. It does, however, sound as if the Brewers stood pat in not willing to deal both LaPorta and Alcides Escobar, thus crushing my dreams of seeing the greatest middle infield of all time.

I will reflect on this trade at a later date. Obviously I would like to hear what other offers were legitimately on the table as that is vital to grading a trade under these circumstances. It also can be assumed that the Indians feel as though their season is lost.

Trade Speculator - CC Sabathia - Part I

For Charles Carstens and the Indians, hopefully this Trade Speculator is part one of one. As reported by Tim Hardicourt and Anthony Witrado, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Indians are in negotiations to work out a deal that revolve around CC Sabathia. As far as names are concerned, the only reports are that the Indians have checked out Milwaukee's high A affiliate, the Brevard County Manatees. Canadian Taylor Green is a name that came up, although I can't see the Indians making a trade for prospects that are that far from the majors. Hardicourt and Witrado assert that the Brewers probably wouldn't part with Green and the other top third base prospect, Matt Gamel. However, Shapiro has been quite sly with his trade negotiations, so expect him to get a lot here.

Despite the report from Hardicourt and Witrado, Ken Rosenthal is suggesting that the Brewers have offered their top prospect, Matt LaPorta. It additionally sounds as if they are willing to send Alcides Escobar in a package for Sabathia. Rosenthal, however, suggests that an additional piece would have to come from Cleveland in this proposed package.

If the Indians could land Escobar, the middle infield that this team would sport at the end of 2009 and beyond would be, in my opinion, the best of all time. Maybe not with the sticks, but I'm certain it would be impossible to hit a ground ball up the middle on those two slick fielders. Additionally, we would see some of the most remarkable double plays ever!

Stepping away from my Cleveland colored glasses for a moment, let's take a look at what the experts have to say about LaPorta and Escobar.

Kevin Goldstein, the Baseball Prospectus writer whom I source several times a week, rated LaPorta as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization and the 4th player under 25. Keep in mind that LaPorta is in the company of All Stars Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, as well as pitcher Yovani Gallardo. In other words, if LaPorta was in any other organization, he would arguably be their top under 25 talent.

I will ignore what negative Goldstein has to say about LaPorta as it focuses on his fielding and fielding alone. The reason being, when the bat is as good as LaPorta's is projected to be, you are excused for having cement hands. Here is what Goldstein has to say,

LaPorta has true impact potential offensively, with some scouts believing that he had the best power and the best pitch recognition in last June's draft. He has the patience to wait for a pitch to hit, the bat speed to let balls carry deep into the zone, the strength to power them out to all fields, and the hand/eye coordination to hit for average as well. Moved to the outfield for the first time in his career after signing, the Brewers praised his work ethic in learning the new position, and his ability to leave his defensive issues behind him when he stepped to the plate.

'True impact potential offensively'. Given as a 23 year old, LaPorta has 19 moonshots thus far for his double A club, it appears as though he has been accurately labeled.

Sickels agrees that LaPorta's bat is legit, although like Goldstein, he questions LaPorta's glove dropping the kid to #19 on his prospect hitters list. A B+ rating is solid, if not spectacular for a hitter with such little experience within professional baseball. This only further impresses me on the success that LaPorta has had to date.

Despite recent word that the Brewers will be unwilling to part with Escobar if they are already sending LaPorta, let's quickly check out the player whom the Indians might have involved in this package.

Escobar is not going to win a triple crown any time soon. In fact, he probably never will. The lack of power, which led a scout to tell Goldstein, that Escobar is "about as strong as my sister". Furthermore, according to Goldstein, Escobar's "highly-aggressive approach limits his on-base ability. He also has a sizable platoon split, with much more effectiveness against southpaws."

The Indians would be receiving a high average, outstanding defensive short stop. This could be an addition by subtraction as it would allow them to freely shop Casey Blake and eventually move Jhonny Peralta to the hot corner.

Looking through the Brewers organization, four names stuck out to me as players I would want if I were running the Indians.

First, Zachary Braddock, a 20 year old left handed starter pitching in high A. Currently Braddock is having a mediocre season, but much of that can be blamed on poor luck and lack of control. Sickels rated Braddock as a C+ prospect entering this season, and I would imagine that rating to remain the same as of today. The strikeouts have taken a hit, but he is still young enough to turn things around in that regard.

Second, Corey Frerichs. This 22 year old reliever is dominating low A ball with an 11.72 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings). Like Braddock his walk rate is fairly high, and at Frerichs age, he may never turn into Rafael Betancourt, but from the numbers, the kid looks like a nice piece to acquire. Frerichs isn't showing up on anyones prospect lists, to his price may be low enough to get as a throw in.

Third, catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The 22 year old catcher, drafted in the 3rd round and touted as the second best hitting catcher in the 2007 draft behind Matt Weiters, an Orioles prospect. Thus far, Lucroy has not disappointed and liek LaPorta, is a defensive renaissance from being an even higher rated prospect. Sickels rated Lucroy as a B- entering this season.

Lastly, 20 year old right handed starter, Jeremy Jeffress. I gather that Jeffress would be incredibly difficult to pry from the Brewers as he is having success in high A at a relatively young age. Sickels rated Jefress as a B prospect assuming that he is no longer a threat to be suspended for violating the leagues substance abuse program. Goldstein had the following to say while rating the first rounder a 4 star prospect,

On a pure velocity level, Jeffress ranks with any arm in the minors, as he parked his fastball consistently at 94-97 mph, and touched 100 mph on several occasions last year. He flashes a good curveball at times, and has begun to show some feel for a changeup as well, despite being very new to the pitch. He's an outstanding athlete, and his arm action is clean.

Of the four, Jeffress is presumably the most difficult to obtain. Shapiro, however, may be able to offer to rid the Brewers of the headaches Jeffers causes. Obviously Lucroy's defensive issues would have to be cleared, as the team does not need another Ryan Garko.

Given the current LaPorta for Sabathia offer, the Indians should not hesitate to make this move. Mark Shapiro should act quickly. Given the day to day uncertainty of MLB players, anything could happen in an instant which could simultaneously make Sabathia undesirable, and the Brewers from wanting to send their most coveted prospect. Given the fact that I am an Indians fan, this is a trade I will be monitoring closely.

Ray Pride Part III

Well this is too good not to share...




Although possibly this post should be called, 'No-Sox Pride'. I truly hope this guy isn't a Sox fan!