So you want the most dominating pitcher over the last over the last six seasons? You think you are a big shot and but don't want to have to go into a bidding war during the 2008-09 Hot Stove League? Or maybe you believe that you are one piece away from being a champion and want to enter your new stadium with a ring ceremony?
Check out the rest of my article here.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Monday, January 28, 2008
I Can't Confirm This, But....
"We do not have any reports of fatalities yet, but we believe that the death toll may be in the hundreds of millions. Beaverton has only a population of about eight thousand, Tom, so this would be quite devastating." Field Reporter (South Park, 2005)
What am I trying to say? That at least I am willing to speculate on what may be. Currently the Baltimore Orioles are reported to be trading lefty pitcher Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for highly touted outfield prospect Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill, minor league pitcher Chris Tillman and another player yet to be named. This report is via ESPN.com that states the trade is simply awaiting the players to complete their physicals and for Baltimore ownership to approve of the deal.
This report has yet to be confirmed, but if history is any indicator (and yes, I am using FoxNews and South Park as my historic references of choice) this deal is as good as done-note I am being incredibly sarcastic, but I don't have much more to write about aside from No Child Left Behind.
Keep in mind, as more information comes available, I will add on comments and grades. For now, I will discuss the players that are said to be involved and insight into whom I believe may be added.
To start, the center piece of this trade, Erik Bedard. While teams had been making noise about Erik Bedard, the majority of speculation behind a starting pitcher being moved, revolved around Johan Santana. I will say this though, in my opinion if the Orioles were set on moving Bedard, pulling the trigger on this moving rather then waiting on the Twins eventual move of Santana was the right thing to do.
Erik Bedard will turn 29 prior to Opening Day. In 2007, Bedard turned the corner and became one of the American League's elite starting pitchers owning a dominating strikeout rate. During this season, he posted a career best in NRA, of 3.07. His RA for the season was third in all of baseball and first in the American League. He also owned the American Leagues top xFIP at 3.13, 28 points lower then his closest competition. With all of that in mind, there is little reason to think Bedard was going to enter the 2008 season as anything less then a top 3 or 4 pitcher in the American League, among the likes of Santana, Josh Beckett and C.C Sabathia.
However, one could hold concern that entering his age 29 season, Bedard had yet to pitch 200 innings in any one season. Although he has not been sidelined for a long period of time due to a major injury. A major injury to a pitcher is one in which occurs to the throwers arm or shoulder. Bedard did have Tommy John surgery in 2002, forcing him to miss the 2003 season. Outside of that, it appears as though Bedard just has a difficult time staying in games, combined with an overly cautious team philosophy. Neither of which are terrible assets in todays game and in fact, could be classified as a bonus given Bedard's age.
Given that Bedard has been in the majors for such a long time, there isn't much need to get into his old prospect status. That said, it is still interesting to note that entering the 2002 season John Sickels (via Baseball Prospectus.com) rated the then 23 year old as a B prospect after a 2001 season in which Bedard posted an ERA below 2.50 and a K/9 of over 11.50.
Bedard will be exchange for center piece Adam Jones. The 22 year old toolsy outfielder dominated triple A in 2007 after being aggressively moved through the Mariners system. 2007 was Jones' second season in triple A, however he did not disappoint, improving all of his numbers by decent margins, even more so impressive because of his age relative to competition. Something Jones has always had to fight against and something that may stunt his long term growth.
Jones ranked as John Sickels #2 prospect in the Mariners system entering 2006, and #1 entering the 2007 and upcoming seasons. At each stage, Jones rated as a B+ prospect, once being compared to a younger Mike Cameron without the walks but the potential to improve.
Entering the 2007 season, Sickels ranked Jones as his #28 hitting prospect, if you decide to scan the list, it is almost impossible to argue with any of the names listed ahead of him and can hardly be considered a knock. Keep in mind, that the Orioles have a single hitter on this list, a kid who is all of 19 years old and ranks as the #4 Orioles prospect entering 2008. Checking back with 2007's top 50 hitters list, I can't imagine any of them being available for Bedard and a team not regretting it sooner then later.
Baseball Prospectus would have ranked Jones as a 5 star talent entering the 2008 season, just behind Felix Hernandez and ahead of Jeff Clement (who qualifies). However, he unfortunately did not qualify and will have to prove that the Mariners did more harm then good in rushing him through their system. Even with that in mind, Jones has a very good chance to be an excellent outfielder both with his bat and with his glove.
The next player, and the one who in my opinion will end up being the head scratcher 5 years down the road, is Chris Tillman. The 19 year old who has just over a single professional season under his belt is considered to be a plus talent and rated as a 4 star prospect by Baseball Prospectus. Here is their glowing review from the same author,
Entering 2007, John Sickels rated Tillman as a B- pitcher with "huge upside...[and in] need [of] time". A more recent review has Tillman jumping up as a B+ pitcher. Keep in mind, that at an older age with a substantially superior statistical track record, Erik Bedard rated as a B prospect.
To be entirely honest, I don't really care for the addition of Sherrill. He is, a reliever who had an excellent season. Although, 2007 was an incredibly lucky season for Sherrill as he posted BABIP and LOB% numbers that are well below league norms, however in limited action as a reliever, that can often occur. His strikeout and walk rates are very impressive and appear to be sustainable given his track record. However, the Orioles are trading their best pitcher, dealt their second best hitter previously and are said to be in the midst of dealing their third best hitter. What need they will have for yet another bullpen arm is beyond me.
To grade out a winner and a loser in this trade, I will go with the Mariners. Bedard could very well be the difference between this team winning the division in 2008 and falling 7 games out, as they did in 2007. The Mariners also need to look to the immediate future as their farm system does not look promising, especially compared to that of the division rival Athletics. However, this is not to suggest that the Orioles lost out altogether. If they can manage to squeak Wladimir Balentien out of the Mariners, instead of Sherrill and another low level prospect, they definitely made out very well for themselves. That would give the team a very young outfield core of high ceiling hitters.
What am I trying to say? That at least I am willing to speculate on what may be. Currently the Baltimore Orioles are reported to be trading lefty pitcher Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for highly touted outfield prospect Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill, minor league pitcher Chris Tillman and another player yet to be named. This report is via ESPN.com that states the trade is simply awaiting the players to complete their physicals and for Baltimore ownership to approve of the deal.
This report has yet to be confirmed, but if history is any indicator (and yes, I am using FoxNews and South Park as my historic references of choice) this deal is as good as done-note I am being incredibly sarcastic, but I don't have much more to write about aside from No Child Left Behind.
Keep in mind, as more information comes available, I will add on comments and grades. For now, I will discuss the players that are said to be involved and insight into whom I believe may be added.
To start, the center piece of this trade, Erik Bedard. While teams had been making noise about Erik Bedard, the majority of speculation behind a starting pitcher being moved, revolved around Johan Santana. I will say this though, in my opinion if the Orioles were set on moving Bedard, pulling the trigger on this moving rather then waiting on the Twins eventual move of Santana was the right thing to do.
Erik Bedard will turn 29 prior to Opening Day. In 2007, Bedard turned the corner and became one of the American League's elite starting pitchers owning a dominating strikeout rate. During this season, he posted a career best in NRA, of 3.07. His RA for the season was third in all of baseball and first in the American League. He also owned the American Leagues top xFIP at 3.13, 28 points lower then his closest competition. With all of that in mind, there is little reason to think Bedard was going to enter the 2008 season as anything less then a top 3 or 4 pitcher in the American League, among the likes of Santana, Josh Beckett and C.C Sabathia.
However, one could hold concern that entering his age 29 season, Bedard had yet to pitch 200 innings in any one season. Although he has not been sidelined for a long period of time due to a major injury. A major injury to a pitcher is one in which occurs to the throwers arm or shoulder. Bedard did have Tommy John surgery in 2002, forcing him to miss the 2003 season. Outside of that, it appears as though Bedard just has a difficult time staying in games, combined with an overly cautious team philosophy. Neither of which are terrible assets in todays game and in fact, could be classified as a bonus given Bedard's age.
Given that Bedard has been in the majors for such a long time, there isn't much need to get into his old prospect status. That said, it is still interesting to note that entering the 2002 season John Sickels (via Baseball Prospectus.com) rated the then 23 year old as a B prospect after a 2001 season in which Bedard posted an ERA below 2.50 and a K/9 of over 11.50.
Bedard will be exchange for center piece Adam Jones. The 22 year old toolsy outfielder dominated triple A in 2007 after being aggressively moved through the Mariners system. 2007 was Jones' second season in triple A, however he did not disappoint, improving all of his numbers by decent margins, even more so impressive because of his age relative to competition. Something Jones has always had to fight against and something that may stunt his long term growth.
Jones ranked as John Sickels #2 prospect in the Mariners system entering 2006, and #1 entering the 2007 and upcoming seasons. At each stage, Jones rated as a B+ prospect, once being compared to a younger Mike Cameron without the walks but the potential to improve.
Entering the 2007 season, Sickels ranked Jones as his #28 hitting prospect, if you decide to scan the list, it is almost impossible to argue with any of the names listed ahead of him and can hardly be considered a knock. Keep in mind, that the Orioles have a single hitter on this list, a kid who is all of 19 years old and ranks as the #4 Orioles prospect entering 2008. Checking back with 2007's top 50 hitters list, I can't imagine any of them being available for Bedard and a team not regretting it sooner then later.
Baseball Prospectus would have ranked Jones as a 5 star talent entering the 2008 season, just behind Felix Hernandez and ahead of Jeff Clement (who qualifies). However, he unfortunately did not qualify and will have to prove that the Mariners did more harm then good in rushing him through their system. Even with that in mind, Jones has a very good chance to be an excellent outfielder both with his bat and with his glove.
The next player, and the one who in my opinion will end up being the head scratcher 5 years down the road, is Chris Tillman. The 19 year old who has just over a single professional season under his belt is considered to be a plus talent and rated as a 4 star prospect by Baseball Prospectus. Here is their glowing review from the same author,
"The Good: Tillman is a highly projectable power pitcher. He has a loose, long frame and good mechanics, with a fastball that sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96, which should become a more regular occurrence as his body fills out. His overhand curveball is a true plus offering that he breaks hard through the zone. Scouts love his aggressiveness, and team officials praised his ability to survive as a teenager in one of the worst pitching environments around.Not even a hint of a negative there. I imagine Baltimore would be smart and start him at an age friendly level this season, which would be high A with an obtainable promotion to double A by mid season.
The Bad: Tillman simply needs a little polish. While he’s hardly wild, he needs to improve his command and control. Like many young pitchers, his changeup needs some improvement, but he does show some feel for the pitch, and it’s already gotten far better since he was drafted."
Entering 2007, John Sickels rated Tillman as a B- pitcher with "huge upside...[and in] need [of] time". A more recent review has Tillman jumping up as a B+ pitcher. Keep in mind, that at an older age with a substantially superior statistical track record, Erik Bedard rated as a B prospect.
To be entirely honest, I don't really care for the addition of Sherrill. He is, a reliever who had an excellent season. Although, 2007 was an incredibly lucky season for Sherrill as he posted BABIP and LOB% numbers that are well below league norms, however in limited action as a reliever, that can often occur. His strikeout and walk rates are very impressive and appear to be sustainable given his track record. However, the Orioles are trading their best pitcher, dealt their second best hitter previously and are said to be in the midst of dealing their third best hitter. What need they will have for yet another bullpen arm is beyond me.
To grade out a winner and a loser in this trade, I will go with the Mariners. Bedard could very well be the difference between this team winning the division in 2008 and falling 7 games out, as they did in 2007. The Mariners also need to look to the immediate future as their farm system does not look promising, especially compared to that of the division rival Athletics. However, this is not to suggest that the Orioles lost out altogether. If they can manage to squeak Wladimir Balentien out of the Mariners, instead of Sherrill and another low level prospect, they definitely made out very well for themselves. That would give the team a very young outfield core of high ceiling hitters.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Better Late Then Never - OVER the Radar
www.creedthoughts.gov.www\creedthoughts
I've sort of been out of commission lately, not so much because of anything serious, rather, I've just been lazy. Thanks to whoever checks this regularly and I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I enjoy making these articles.
This weeks Under the Radar is actually not going to be an Over the Radar. The reason being, there really wasn't a signing in the last week that jumped out at me as a great value, a deal that we would look back at in August and wonder how that Front Office managed to lure said player for such a small cost or a player that was in such little demand. This week however, there really wasn't anything that did not receive a great deal of coverage, or really, the organization is going to get what everyone expects out of them-in other words, they are, what we thought they were.
The GM Dayton Moore of the Kansas City Royals signs starting pitcher Brett Tomko for $3M. I'm sorry, what? That right, the deal also included $1.5M in incentives. In other words, Tomko had a terrible 2007 and is poised to enjoy a raise in 2008. I'd like to put this into some sort of real world perspective, but I'm not sure I am capable of such analogy. Maybe after looking deeper I'll find some 'straw into gold' metaphor...
I really do not understand this deal. That is, how can a pitcher like Brett Tomko receive a guaranteed $3M from a pro ball club? In addition to this, why does a team that has a top 3 of Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Zach Greinke feel the need to bring in a Tomko starter when the organization is already filled with end of the rotation starter? Tomko, as MLB.com reports "will compete for the last two spots with Jorge De La Rosa, Kyle Davies, Hideo Nomo, John Bale, Luke Hochevar, Luke Hudson and Brian Lawrence." Two names on that list will probably jump out to everyone, being Nomo and Lawrence. However, both are Spring Training invites, so there really isn't any harm in having them around.
So why Brett Tomko? Why guarantee this guy $3M? Well, I don't know. The guy is going to be 34 years old a week after Opening Day, so it is not as if he was signed for potential. He is coming off a marginally unlucky season, so possibly Moore figured he would get a greater return towards the mean, although sometimes you have to look at a pitchers numbers and say, he's just that bad!
In 2007 Tomko split the season between Los Angeles and San Diego in the National League where he posted an outstanding 6.14 NRA (Normalized Runs Allowed). I say outstanding, as I am puzzled how a pitcher is allowed to throw 130+ innings while piling up a 6.14 NRA, never mind that he was able to sign a $3M contract after the fact. In addition, he did this while pitching in the lesser league in two ballparks that favor pitchers. Without getting into too much detail on either front, the affect each will have on Tomko will presumably be negated by a season with league average luck. So his 6+ NRA is legit-that is, if you did not have faith in his career mark of 4.83.
Let us also remember that he threw 21 games of relief, totaling 29 2/3 innings pitched. During this stint, Tomko provided a little bit of evidence that outside of being a poor starter, he is a terrible reliever. His line as a reliever: 6.06 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP. Yes, the sample size is small as it is based on a single season of statistics, but given Tomko's career ERA of 4.62, the apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
So again, Why Brett Tomko? Royals Review writes that Tomko "[C]an start or relieve. He can provide veteran presence. He can provide grit." I know, 'grit'. Did we not already establish that talent trumps grit every time?
I imagine the reason Dayton Moore will tell reporters is the old adage that one can never have too much pitching. However, as the Baseball Prospectus team of writers discovered in their 2006 book Baseball Between the Numbers (Steven Goldman, 291)
My biggest problem with this deal, outside of the fact that it does justify the ARod's of Major League Baseball making a king's ransom, is that the Royals are not going to contend in 2008. Tomko is going to have no place on this roster outside of a few garbage innings, something the $3M guaranteed essentially guarantees him. As I suggested in 2006 with the Indians, give the kids a shot, at least then, the club knows what it has when they are about to contend.
Let's also consider another factor. $3M on Opening Day is $3M. A $3M player is a $3M player. However, save that money, put it in the bank and sit on it. Let's look at this from the mid point of the baseball season. What is $3M owed to a player from the mid way point on equal too? A cumulative contract of $6M. A $6M player is a $6M player. Put this way, if Moore had the choice of Tomko or El Duqe, my money is that he would prefer the later. That said, is Tomko going to be the difference between being in the mix by the mid point in the season and being well out of contention? Presumably he will perform at well under replacement level making this, essentially $3M wasted.
I've sort of been out of commission lately, not so much because of anything serious, rather, I've just been lazy. Thanks to whoever checks this regularly and I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I enjoy making these articles.
This weeks Under the Radar is actually not going to be an Over the Radar. The reason being, there really wasn't a signing in the last week that jumped out at me as a great value, a deal that we would look back at in August and wonder how that Front Office managed to lure said player for such a small cost or a player that was in such little demand. This week however, there really wasn't anything that did not receive a great deal of coverage, or really, the organization is going to get what everyone expects out of them-in other words, they are, what we thought they were.
The GM Dayton Moore of the Kansas City Royals signs starting pitcher Brett Tomko for $3M. I'm sorry, what? That right, the deal also included $1.5M in incentives. In other words, Tomko had a terrible 2007 and is poised to enjoy a raise in 2008. I'd like to put this into some sort of real world perspective, but I'm not sure I am capable of such analogy. Maybe after looking deeper I'll find some 'straw into gold' metaphor...
I really do not understand this deal. That is, how can a pitcher like Brett Tomko receive a guaranteed $3M from a pro ball club? In addition to this, why does a team that has a top 3 of Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Zach Greinke feel the need to bring in a Tomko starter when the organization is already filled with end of the rotation starter? Tomko, as MLB.com reports "will compete for the last two spots with Jorge De La Rosa, Kyle Davies, Hideo Nomo, John Bale, Luke Hochevar, Luke Hudson and Brian Lawrence." Two names on that list will probably jump out to everyone, being Nomo and Lawrence. However, both are Spring Training invites, so there really isn't any harm in having them around.
So why Brett Tomko? Why guarantee this guy $3M? Well, I don't know. The guy is going to be 34 years old a week after Opening Day, so it is not as if he was signed for potential. He is coming off a marginally unlucky season, so possibly Moore figured he would get a greater return towards the mean, although sometimes you have to look at a pitchers numbers and say, he's just that bad!
In 2007 Tomko split the season between Los Angeles and San Diego in the National League where he posted an outstanding 6.14 NRA (Normalized Runs Allowed). I say outstanding, as I am puzzled how a pitcher is allowed to throw 130+ innings while piling up a 6.14 NRA, never mind that he was able to sign a $3M contract after the fact. In addition, he did this while pitching in the lesser league in two ballparks that favor pitchers. Without getting into too much detail on either front, the affect each will have on Tomko will presumably be negated by a season with league average luck. So his 6+ NRA is legit-that is, if you did not have faith in his career mark of 4.83.
Let us also remember that he threw 21 games of relief, totaling 29 2/3 innings pitched. During this stint, Tomko provided a little bit of evidence that outside of being a poor starter, he is a terrible reliever. His line as a reliever: 6.06 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP. Yes, the sample size is small as it is based on a single season of statistics, but given Tomko's career ERA of 4.62, the apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
So again, Why Brett Tomko? Royals Review writes that Tomko "[C]an start or relieve. He can provide veteran presence. He can provide grit." I know, 'grit'. Did we not already establish that talent trumps grit every time?
I imagine the reason Dayton Moore will tell reporters is the old adage that one can never have too much pitching. However, as the Baseball Prospectus team of writers discovered in their 2006 book Baseball Between the Numbers (Steven Goldman, 291)
Pitching is a bit like oil: Nothing happens without it, and you'd like to get as much of it as money will allow, but if you don't buy food you will have a more immediate problem than whether or not your car will run. In strictest mathematical terms, a team can only benefit by adding pitching. But in the adsence of available pitching, making other changes will work just as wellSo why Brett Tomko? I really don't know. Give him a minor league contract with a Spring Training invite and have him prove that he is superior to any young are you have in the system. Have him display the ability to be worthy of a roster spot that could otherwise be manned by a farm hand.
Which is to say that you can't have too much pitching-except when you don't have enough of everything else.
My biggest problem with this deal, outside of the fact that it does justify the ARod's of Major League Baseball making a king's ransom, is that the Royals are not going to contend in 2008. Tomko is going to have no place on this roster outside of a few garbage innings, something the $3M guaranteed essentially guarantees him. As I suggested in 2006 with the Indians, give the kids a shot, at least then, the club knows what it has when they are about to contend.
Let's also consider another factor. $3M on Opening Day is $3M. A $3M player is a $3M player. However, save that money, put it in the bank and sit on it. Let's look at this from the mid point of the baseball season. What is $3M owed to a player from the mid way point on equal too? A cumulative contract of $6M. A $6M player is a $6M player. Put this way, if Moore had the choice of Tomko or El Duqe, my money is that he would prefer the later. That said, is Tomko going to be the difference between being in the mix by the mid point in the season and being well out of contention? Presumably he will perform at well under replacement level making this, essentially $3M wasted.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Let's Make it Official
"That ref's a real prick out there. That's right, you heard me, my man! Number four's been throwing elbows, and someone's kid is going to get hurt...Let's make it official then..." Old School (2003)
The Blue Jays and Cardinals agreed on Monday to a trade involving third sackers Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen. This trade was speculated about over the weekend, but I am uncertain how many people actually thought it would go down. After all, why? Both players involved are beyond their prime. Both come with severe injury risk. Both players are currently overpaid. However, both players were once former All Stars, and maybe each club feels that a change of scenery will help.
In Scott Rolen, the Blue Jays are acquiring an ex-Gold Glover and as mentioned a former All Star. Although, the slip in Rolen's production has been widely publicized, as well as his recent run-ins with ex-manager Tony LaRussa. In the 2006 playoffs, LaRussa blamed Rolen for being sore, as he refused to take time off in September of that season.
However, Rolen will cross the 45th parallel and team up with what Will Carrol calls the Jays medical staff "among the best in the business". Which bodes well, given that Will Carrol suggests "it was Rolen's lack of trust after the initial treatment and surgeries on his shoulder that were the beginning of the end."
Carrol goes into further detail about Rolen's shoulder, suggesting the arthritis,
Troy Glaus, is a straight up masher, owning a career .246 ISO (Isolated Power). Like Rolen, and as mentioned, Glaus is an ex All Star. He is under contract for the next season with an option, that Glaus will undoubtedly accept, totaling $12M annually.
Will Carrol explains of Glaus' injury history which included his back, shoulder and most recently, feet. However, the back issue should subside with the move away from Rogers Center's field turf, the shoulder issue is a thing of the past and the Cardinals, as Will Carrol discusses, "have good experience with managing plantar fasciitis—they've been able to keep Albert Pujols on the field despite the condition, and Pujols has continued to produce due to some advanced techniques and plain old hard work."
Defensively, there really isn't anything special to say about Glaus. In 2006, Glaus was #12 in the majors in THT's defensive Win Shares (a cumulative statistic) and in 2005 he finished tied for #11, scoring a 3.8 and 4.0 respectively.
What do the experts say? Fangraphs now has the Bill James, CHONE and Marcel's projection systems posted and here is what they say about Rolen and Glaus respectively:
Rolen
Bill James - .282/.367/.475
CHONE - .274/.353/.449
Marcel - .271/.342/.435
Glaus
Bill James - .251/.360/.490
CHONE - .256/.364/.490
Marcel - .257/.356/.479
Keep in mind that each of these projections were created prior to the trade, given that each player changed leagues and parks, these projections could vary. But essentially, the projections are calling for a further drop off for Rolen and for Glaus to hit marginally under his career averages.
What do I think of this trade? Honestly, its all St. Louis in my opinion. Consider the following from Mitchel Lichtman's July 2006 article from The Hardball Times,
The biggest factor that I see playing a role in the trade. It is not injuries, it is not a new ball park or league, it is not a change of scenery, rather, it is Troy Glaus getting to hit behind Albert Pujols. While the players Glaus was hitting around in Toronto were not scrubs, they were far from the threat of an Albert Pujols.
Another advantage for the Red Birds is cleaning up the club house. I am by no means advocating that a team should get worse in talent in order to having a better club house. Rather, if a team can remain the course while cleaning up some attitudes, that can be nothing but a help for the team. Also consider that prized prospect Colby Rasmus is not far from the bigs who crushed double A as a 20 year old. The Cards cleared up CF for the kid and it is only a matter of time before he is given the full time job.
Lastly, did JP forget that his manager is John Gibbons. Shea Hillenbrand? Ted Lilly? Do these two names ring a bell? I'm not suggesting that Rolen bound to end up in a confrontation with the Jays skipper, but there isn't any way to rule it out.
Sorry Blue Birds, this trade isn't going to help baseball north.
The Blue Jays and Cardinals agreed on Monday to a trade involving third sackers Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen. This trade was speculated about over the weekend, but I am uncertain how many people actually thought it would go down. After all, why? Both players involved are beyond their prime. Both come with severe injury risk. Both players are currently overpaid. However, both players were once former All Stars, and maybe each club feels that a change of scenery will help.
In Scott Rolen, the Blue Jays are acquiring an ex-Gold Glover and as mentioned a former All Star. Although, the slip in Rolen's production has been widely publicized, as well as his recent run-ins with ex-manager Tony LaRussa. In the 2006 playoffs, LaRussa blamed Rolen for being sore, as he refused to take time off in September of that season.
However, Rolen will cross the 45th parallel and team up with what Will Carrol calls the Jays medical staff "among the best in the business". Which bodes well, given that Will Carrol suggests "it was Rolen's lack of trust after the initial treatment and surgeries on his shoulder that were the beginning of the end."
Carrol goes into further detail about Rolen's shoulder, suggesting the arthritis,
"is going to come back, but his most recent procedure shouldn't be dissimilar to the last one in terms of results: he'll be okay for a while, but the time will come when the shoulder will start to tighten up. At that point, Rolen's going to have to take a hard look at a needle full of cortisone and the rest of his life after baseball."At 33 years old Rolen is not getting any younger. He will be under control for the next 3 years at $12M a season. If he performs up to 2006 levels, the Jays made a good swap considering Rolen's defensive play (in 2006, Rolen ranked as the second highest scoring defensive third basemen as per The Hardball Times fielding Win Shares).
Troy Glaus, is a straight up masher, owning a career .246 ISO (Isolated Power). Like Rolen, and as mentioned, Glaus is an ex All Star. He is under contract for the next season with an option, that Glaus will undoubtedly accept, totaling $12M annually.
Will Carrol explains of Glaus' injury history which included his back, shoulder and most recently, feet. However, the back issue should subside with the move away from Rogers Center's field turf, the shoulder issue is a thing of the past and the Cardinals, as Will Carrol discusses, "have good experience with managing plantar fasciitis—they've been able to keep Albert Pujols on the field despite the condition, and Pujols has continued to produce due to some advanced techniques and plain old hard work."
Defensively, there really isn't anything special to say about Glaus. In 2006, Glaus was #12 in the majors in THT's defensive Win Shares (a cumulative statistic) and in 2005 he finished tied for #11, scoring a 3.8 and 4.0 respectively.
What do the experts say? Fangraphs now has the Bill James, CHONE and Marcel's projection systems posted and here is what they say about Rolen and Glaus respectively:
Rolen
Bill James - .282/.367/.475
CHONE - .274/.353/.449
Marcel - .271/.342/.435
Glaus
Bill James - .251/.360/.490
CHONE - .256/.364/.490
Marcel - .257/.356/.479
Keep in mind that each of these projections were created prior to the trade, given that each player changed leagues and parks, these projections could vary. But essentially, the projections are calling for a further drop off for Rolen and for Glaus to hit marginally under his career averages.
What do I think of this trade? Honestly, its all St. Louis in my opinion. Consider the following from Mitchel Lichtman's July 2006 article from The Hardball Times,
"players who switch from the NL to the AL, tend to get worse and players who switch from the AL to the NL tend to get better."This was concluded based on data of players switching leagues from 2000 to 2006. However, with that gain, the difference between ballparks should close that gap, making any advantages a wash. Keep in mind, that the numbers are limited as there is only one year of statistics for St. Louis.
The biggest factor that I see playing a role in the trade. It is not injuries, it is not a new ball park or league, it is not a change of scenery, rather, it is Troy Glaus getting to hit behind Albert Pujols. While the players Glaus was hitting around in Toronto were not scrubs, they were far from the threat of an Albert Pujols.
Another advantage for the Red Birds is cleaning up the club house. I am by no means advocating that a team should get worse in talent in order to having a better club house. Rather, if a team can remain the course while cleaning up some attitudes, that can be nothing but a help for the team. Also consider that prized prospect Colby Rasmus is not far from the bigs who crushed double A as a 20 year old. The Cards cleared up CF for the kid and it is only a matter of time before he is given the full time job.
Lastly, did JP forget that his manager is John Gibbons. Shea Hillenbrand? Ted Lilly? Do these two names ring a bell? I'm not suggesting that Rolen bound to end up in a confrontation with the Jays skipper, but there isn't any way to rule it out.
Sorry Blue Birds, this trade isn't going to help baseball north.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Under the Radar - The Week That Was
"What are you a wizard? A genius? Why didn't you tell me that before?" Best in Show (2000)
I'm not going to lie. Nothing happened in baseball that I care to report on. Certainly there were Under the Radar signings, but nothing of real substance. Given that I am not a 'wizard' or a 'genius', I have no ability to spin nothing into something.
Here are three angles I tried to play off of:
First, the Colorado Rockies and Marcus Giles agreed on a minor league contract. The soon-to-be 30 year old second bagger will come to Spring Training fighting for his major league career. Rookie, Jayson Nix apparently has the inside track at the starting job with Quintanilla and Barmes around, outside from an absolute monster spring, Giles will be looking for a job elsewhere.
Although, I have to admit, lets say Giles plays incredible in Spring Training, avoids being arrested, the idea of playing in Colorado has to have Giles salivating. Consider in 2005, Giles hit .291/.365/.461 in Atlanta. Which is legitimized by Giles' .288 EQA.
What changed in the two season's since then? I had hypothesized that the 2006 move to lead off was negatively affecting his play, however that was squashed upon discovering that he actually 'led off', less frequent then he had in previous years. The big thing, Giles' BABIP dropped from a 2003-05 average of .347, to .306 and .275 the last two seasons. The .306 figure is not terrible, although it can be understood as worse then expected. The .275 mark however, was extremely unlucky. I guarantee that this drop in BABIP has cost Giles upwards of $10M the last two years.
The most disturbing issue with Giles' BABIP is that there is no explanation for it. His line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages stayed essentially on course with his career averages.
Second, and something I have very little to say about, is the Rangers signing Eddie Guardado to a one year contract of up to $6M. According to the MLB.com article, $2.5M of that money is locked in to the amount of games Guardado finishes. With CJ Wilson entrenched as the Rangers closer for 2008, it will take an injury and an incredible season from Eddie to acheive those bonus'.
Guardado is nothing more then a name at this point in his career. The 37 year old has not had extended success since 2005. Infact, 'Everyday' Eddie has shown an enormous downward trend in his ability to strike batters out, as well as keeping them off the base paths.
Despite this, Guardado is still guaranteed $2M. This just goes to show how long a name can last in baseball. I don't see Guardado being anything more then a 4.50 ERA pitcher and at best, a replacement level mop up man. Not a great way to spend $2M-unless the Rangers intend on making him their pitching coach or something?
Lastly, the Athletics add outfielder Emil Brown. This move seemed to be the precursor to the Atheltics moving Kotsay to the Braves, however it still doesn't make much sense. Where does Brown play?
Here is what Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus had to say about this move:
There was other news in baseball this week, but given the lack of meaningful moves, everything got full play.
I'm not going to lie. Nothing happened in baseball that I care to report on. Certainly there were Under the Radar signings, but nothing of real substance. Given that I am not a 'wizard' or a 'genius', I have no ability to spin nothing into something.
Here are three angles I tried to play off of:
First, the Colorado Rockies and Marcus Giles agreed on a minor league contract. The soon-to-be 30 year old second bagger will come to Spring Training fighting for his major league career. Rookie, Jayson Nix apparently has the inside track at the starting job with Quintanilla and Barmes around, outside from an absolute monster spring, Giles will be looking for a job elsewhere.
Although, I have to admit, lets say Giles plays incredible in Spring Training, avoids being arrested, the idea of playing in Colorado has to have Giles salivating. Consider in 2005, Giles hit .291/.365/.461 in Atlanta. Which is legitimized by Giles' .288 EQA.
What changed in the two season's since then? I had hypothesized that the 2006 move to lead off was negatively affecting his play, however that was squashed upon discovering that he actually 'led off', less frequent then he had in previous years. The big thing, Giles' BABIP dropped from a 2003-05 average of .347, to .306 and .275 the last two seasons. The .306 figure is not terrible, although it can be understood as worse then expected. The .275 mark however, was extremely unlucky. I guarantee that this drop in BABIP has cost Giles upwards of $10M the last two years.
The most disturbing issue with Giles' BABIP is that there is no explanation for it. His line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages stayed essentially on course with his career averages.
Second, and something I have very little to say about, is the Rangers signing Eddie Guardado to a one year contract of up to $6M. According to the MLB.com article, $2.5M of that money is locked in to the amount of games Guardado finishes. With CJ Wilson entrenched as the Rangers closer for 2008, it will take an injury and an incredible season from Eddie to acheive those bonus'.
Guardado is nothing more then a name at this point in his career. The 37 year old has not had extended success since 2005. Infact, 'Everyday' Eddie has shown an enormous downward trend in his ability to strike batters out, as well as keeping them off the base paths.
Despite this, Guardado is still guaranteed $2M. This just goes to show how long a name can last in baseball. I don't see Guardado being anything more then a 4.50 ERA pitcher and at best, a replacement level mop up man. Not a great way to spend $2M-unless the Rangers intend on making him their pitching coach or something?
Lastly, the Athletics add outfielder Emil Brown. This move seemed to be the precursor to the Atheltics moving Kotsay to the Braves, however it still doesn't make much sense. Where does Brown play?
Here is what Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus had to say about this move:
"Brown's recently turned 33 and is widely considered a defensive liability in even left, so this move isn't exactly redolent of upside potential. Anyone else feel nostalgic? I remember when the A's drafted him back in 1994 (in the sixth round), and also remember regretting the fact that the A's had lost him to the Pirates in the '96 Rule 5 draft after he'd lost most of what seemed like a breakout season in the Cal League to a broken hamate. I can't say I feel any special vibe over this reunion, though; this is sort of the left field equivalent of last year's step down from Frank Thomas to Mike Piazza at DH, with Brown playing Piazza and A's fans left wishing he was as good as his predecessor, Shannon Stewart. Thrown into an outfield corner mix with one position open, Brown will contend with a comebacking Chris Denorfia, recent pickup Ryan Sweeney, and perhaps also Snakes prospect Carlos Gonzalez, if he isn't already slotted for center should the A's actually find a taker for Mark Kotsay. It's possible that Brown might make an adequate platoon partner for either Gonzalez or Sweeney, but that's about the extent of the positive."Anyway you slice it, the Atheltics really threw away some cash with this signing. Even if Emil Brown plays at a career high level, his inability to play the field limits his value in a trade. It is not as if the A's are one bench player away from being a contender, or Brown will have substantial trade value at the deadline. With that in mind, the Athletics would have been better served signing a Jorge Julio.
There was other news in baseball this week, but given the lack of meaningful moves, everything got full play.
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