Take a Chance on Me - 9th Edition

Take a Chance on Me has been far and few between lately although I am enjoying the most recent format of suggesting injury pick ups. This week's TACOM suggests the acquisition of Cleveland Indians, Fausto Carmona and Victor Martinez. Additionally, I supply reasons why 'closers' JJ Putz and Troy Percival should be avoided.

Check out The Fantasy Baseball Generals for more outstanding fantasy baseball coverage.

The Final Ballot

I typically will only vote for the final spots on the ML All Star roster as I feel the All Star Balloting is a joke, and honestly do not want to waste my time.

Trade Speculator - Done Deal!

MLB.com is reporting that the Chicago Cubs have acquired Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin from the Oakland A's for Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson. This is already shaping up to be one exciting Trade Deadline.

Despite being a rather knee-jerk reaction, the Cubs did well with what little they have. The feeling around the organization must be that Murton and Patterson are not going to provide much in terms of major league production, while Donaldson is undeniably blocked. The A's on the other hand must have decided that they were never safe with Harden, and that he was better traded, then 'being' traded.

I'll begin looking at how the Cubs did in this trade.

Initially, I thought, great job, and even now I am confident this is as good of a starter as the Cubs could have possibly acquired. They may have been able to do some other shuffling to bring aboard Erik Bedard, but outside of that, no one available is near the pitcher that Rich Harden is. However, with Harden's injury history-which will be beaten to death in other reflections of this trade-he does come as quite the gamble.

In Harden, the Cubs receive a legitimate ace. In Harden's 6 seasons as a Major League starter (including 7 outings from the pen), he has always performed at an extraordinarily high level. His career NRA (Normalized Runs Allowed) sits at 3.52 and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a strong 3.43. These are the numbers of an outstanding pitcher. For example, in 2007 there were only 8 starters with a FIP of 3.43 or lower.

The unfortunate issue, is that Harden has only once qualified for the ERA title and is no sure bet to make it for this year. Given the use and abuse the Cubs traditionally place on their starters arm, Cub-land will be holding their breath with every nasty pitch Harden throws.

As essentially a fastball-change up pitcher now, Harden has done his best to limit the amount of strain he puts on his arm. While his fastball has lost a bit of velocity, it is still one of the better pitches in the majors, as he has pinpoint control. Despite missing a brief stint thus far, by all accounts his arm has held up-in Harden terms.

The only worry that is not injury related is the fly ball rate. With the essential extinction of Harden's slider, has come an incredibly jump in his fly ball percentage (FB%). Owning a FB% of over 50% may prove to be detrimental in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Keep an eye on that as he also regresses towards the mean in home runs per fly ball (HR/FB).

The acquisition of Chad Gaudin is definitely an interesting one. At 25 years old, there is still a fair amount of upside left in Gaudin. He is in the midst of his 3rd straight quality season with the A's, and outside from a thumping in Toronto, Gaudin has been a decent major league starter. Especially when you take into account his age.

Gaudin is arbitration eligible for the next three seasons, and probably won't be a pitcher to cost all too much for those seasons. He will, however, be a very strong pitcher in the weak National League.

Being more of a ground ball pitcher will help Gaudin in Chicago. What will also help is facing weaker lineups, where his high walk rate (BB/9) will not be as prominent. With any luck, the Cubs traded for the pitcher Gaudin has been this season, and considering his recent trends, that isn't all too unlikely.

In 2004, Gaudin earned honorable mention on Baseball Prospectus' top 50 prospect list. The authors cite Gaudin's incredible run through the minors as a 19 and 20 year old, where he eventually got the call to the bigs by the then Devil Rays. After an impressive big league showing Gaudin was abused by the Devil Rays management, jumping between the starting rotation and the bullpen. He was later moved to Toronto for catching prospect, Kevin Cash. Toronto then decided he wasn't worth their time, and was moved for a PTBNL.

In return for Gaudin and Harden, the A's received one of my favorite pitching prospects, Sean Gallagher. The 22 year old righty has been a disappointment thus far in the majors, although he has made some substantial adjustments this season, and has a lot of potential.

n Gallagher, the Athletics receive a B rated prospect entering 2008 according to John Sickels-the prospect is also #3 overall and the top pitching prospect in the Cubs system. Sickels also rated Gallagher as a B level prospect entering the 2007 season, at #4 overall and as the #2 pitcher within the Cubs system. So it is good to see Gallagher has at least maintained course. Overall, Sickels had Gallagher rated as his #38 prospect in all of baseball entering the 2007 season.

At the beginning of the 2007 season Sickels compared Gallagher to Kevin Slowey of the Minnesota Twins having the following to say about him,

...improved to 89-94 last year, with movement. His curveball is excellent, and his changeup has developed into an average pitch. His mechanics are usually solid but at times they will wander a bit, hurting his command.

A fastball topping out at 94 mph is nothing to write home about, but if the movement is legit, and he is capable of controlling his curve ball, Gallagher should be a quality major leaguer. Sickels saw him live this season and confirmed what he already thought.

Baseball Prospectus wrote about Gallagher in November of 2006, saying, "a 91-93 mph fastball, and with his hard, biting breaking ball, he has two plus pitches."

As a 3 star prospect, Gallagher isn't expected to be much more then a middle of the rotation innings eater, something that is highly valuable in this day and age of baseball. In a perfect world, I think Sean Gallagher turns out to be a Joe Blanton-type.

The ginger in the equation, Matt Murton, simply cannot seem to stick it in the bigs. At 26 he is too old to be in Triple A, and really isn't going to get any more seasoned at that level. His major league stats have been fine, yet unspectacular and lacking power, the move to Oakland and the American League certainly will not help.

At worst Murton is a 4th outfielder, another piece a club needs. However, this piece isn't really one you build a trade around, which leads me to believe the A's have the same hope for Murton that many experts had when entering 2006, as an essential rookie. I would say an optimistic annual expectation out of Murton would be 25 home runs and an on base percentage (OBP) around .380, realistically, we're looking at 15-20 home runs with a .350 OBP, nice, but not spectacular.

Probably the most impressive player involved in what is feeling like a rather disappointing trade for Mr. Beane is Eric Patterson. At 25 years old, Patterson must start producing at the major league level. While he cannot be blamed for his lack of production to this point, the pressure will be on for him to follow through with the promise, especially after being moved to a more demanding outfield position-although I have to believe Patterson's arrival is the beginning of the end for Mark Ellis, whom a lot of teams would love to have.

Hurting Patterson, in my opinion, is that he has somewhat regressed in the eyes of John Sickels. Sickels rated Patterson as a B+ prospect entering 2007, and dropped him down to a B this season 'due to defense'. However, entering 2006 Patterson sat at a B, so overall he hasn't really moved up or down. Is that a positive or a negative for a toolsy hitter like Patterson?

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus breaks down the good and the bad of Patterson, while rating him a 3 star prospect and the 8th best within the Cubs organization,

The Good: Patterson can beat you in many ways offensively. He can hit for average, draw a decent amount of walks, steal a base at the right opportunity, and he surprises many with the amount of juice in his bat. His best tool is his speed, but he has no major weaknesses at the plate or on the basepaths.
The Bad: Patterson's defense has always been a concern, and he was moved to the outfield because of his defensive shortcomings as much as he was moved there in order to increase his versatility. He still struggles against good left-handers.

'No major weaknesses', although there really aren't many absolute strengths either.

Entering the 2007 season, Patterson just missed making Baseball Prospectus' top 100 prospects list, joining notables Dustin Pedroia, and Alexi Casilla among others. Overall, Patterson's best case scenario would be to become Brian Roberts with Chris Burke would being on the low end of the spectrum.

Finally, checking in with catcher Josh Donaldson, we see a 22 year old catcher who hasn't done anything particularly special since being drafted in 2007. While his strikeout rate has dropped during his promotion to A ball, his walk rate has also taken a hit. Additionally, the power looks worse, although only slightly less impressive. Drawing a conclusion on a catcher of this age is nearly impossible and surely a wasteful thing to do. That is, consider the strides Victor Martinez took between his 22nd and 23rd birthdays while jumping from High A ball to Double A. A lot can click for a hitter in his early years.

Checking in with Kevin Goldstein, who rated Donaldson as the cubs 5th best prospect, ahead of both Gallagher and Patterson, a three star talent, reveals the following,

Year In Review: The offense-oriented catcher had a monster debut, and would have led the Northwest League in both slugging and on-base percentage if he'd gotten enough plate appearances to qualify.
The Good: Donaldson is an on-base machine who had more walks than strikeouts in 2007 while also showcasing solid hitting skills and average to slightly-above power. He's a good athlete for a catcher, and his arm rates as above average.
The Bad: Much of Donaldson's future projection relies on his ability to stay behind the plate. While Donaldson has the potential to become an average defender, he's only been catching for two years and is a well below-average backstop beyond that throwing arm.

Nothing overly impressive, granted there isn't a lot of information to draw a conclusion from. What should stick out for those who read Moneyball and felt as though they had somewhat of an understanding of Billy Beane, is that both Murton and Donaldson fit into the 'patient hitter' mold.

Sickels is equally as impressed with Donaldson and his professional debut, rating him as a B prospect, and the 6th best prospect in the Cubs system. I imagine one would be hard pressed to find many catching prospects rating higher then Donaldson, so this is quite the compliment. Granted, I would assume there are a few (namely Maximilano Ramirez of the Rangers) who have jumped Donaldson this season.


Overall, I have to give this one to the Cubs. They sent away only one piece that had a legitimate shot at being apart of their future (Gallagher), while sending away a major disappointment (Murton), and two unknown variables who are blocked (Patterson-DeRosa/Cedeno and Donaldson-Soto). Furthermore, with the haul the Indians got for Sabathia, it is hard to believe this is the best trade that was out there for Harden. Interestingly, the A's also appear to be raising their white flag relatively early.

That is, sitting only 6 games behind and having a vastly superior Pythagorean record (for runs scored/allowed, EQR/EQRA, and aEGR/aEQRA) the A's should be actually doing better then they are, and the Angels should be doing worse.

Furthermore, it would be startling to me if Gallagher turned out to be a better pitcher then any of the Athletics current top pitching prospects. If that is true, the A's essentially traded Harden for Patterson and some essential spare parts. Albeit, they are parts Beane may be able to flip down the road.

Article of the Week for the Week of June 29 - July 5

The Hardball Times author Sal Baxamusa pens an article titled "Good team, Bad Team, Glad team, Sad Team".

So what makes a good team? What allows for a team to win ballgames? Baxamusa asserts,

Three things are required for a team to win a lot of baseball games:

1. Have a lot of talented players.
2. Have those players play well.
3. Have more runs than the other team at the end of games.

'Have more runs than the other team at the end of games'.

Trade Speculator - Hello LaPorta! - Part III

It's official, Matt LaPorta is now an Indian. Along with LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and a player to be named later (PTBNL) were traded from Milwaukee to Cleveland for CC Sabathia. My initial reaction is, 'great job Shapiro', despite not naming any one of the four prospects that I was looking forward to seeing don Chief Wahoo.

The trade is being compared to the last time Cleveland traded an ace, back in 2002 when Bartolo Colon was moved to the Expos. During the Indians press conference, Shapiro did his best to shoot down that speculation, citing the unique situation with the Expos and a changing environment in baseball in general.

Shapiro additionally stated that the trade timing was vital. He stated,

Two of (the teams) clearly stated, that the player had more value to them now. That they may not be in it at this level, or may not be in it at all in two or three weeks.

It will be interesting to hear the rumors of who was offered by other teams, but for now, let's reflect on the trade as is. It will also be of interest to see what other trades occur, be it AJ Burnett, Erik Bedard, or a move that is from left field.

The Brewers landed the best available pitcher, which immediately makes them look good. The keystone of the trade was a player whom the front office was not sure where he would play. Between Fielder, Braun, and Hart, the positions LaPorta is capable of playing were filled for what appears to be long term.

That said, CC Sabathia will come in, and give Milwaukee a legitimate 1-2 punch atop their rotation. If Sheets can remain healthy, this is arguably the top pair in all of baseball (although I am admittedly biased). Even still, Sabathia provides insurance in the event that Sheets does go down with an injury. This also adds some variety to a fairly righty-heavy rotation.

Clearly there cannot be enough said about Sabathia. He is an outstanding hurler who will eat innings and if he continues on his current roll, will absolutely shred apart the National League. Playing in what is a fairly neutral park also will not hurt Sabathia's production.

This deal also makes sense for the Brewers as they have been outstanding at drafting lately, and even if they are unable to resign Sabathia, the picks they will receive will restock the club. The additional revenue from a legitimate post season push, and potential birth will also help this rebuilt franchise.

Sitting only 3.5 games behind the Cubs for first, the Brewers are legitimate contenders in the terrible National League. Some improvements from underachieving players and a trade to help out the bullpen, and this team should be the National Leagues representative in the World Series.

In return for the big man, Shapiro and the Indians grabbed one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball as well as two, possibly three sound prospects.

Matt LaPorta is a position-less power hitter who has zoomed through the minors, rapidly reaching Double A. He was drafted in the first round of 2007 and in 108 minor league games, LaPorta has quickly adjusted to swinging wood, hitting 31 home runs. At 23 years old, LaPorta is clearly one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

LaPorta's stock entering the draft was obviously high. He was drafted in the 14th round of the 2006 draft by the Boston Red Sox, after what is being called an 'injury riddled junior year'. Obviously it was a wise decision as LaPorta ended up being drafted nearly 400 picks earlier by the Brewers. Interestingly, LaPorta was still viewed as a first round pick in 2006.

Kevin Goldstein rated LaPorta as the #15 prospect entering the 2007 draft, citing his outstanding senior season as the reason why. Goldstein called notice to LaPorta's 20 home runs in 169 at bats, coupled with 16 strikeouts. As a side note, home run to strikeout ratio is definitely an underutilized statistic. All that being said, LaPorta was tabbed as the "arguably the best pure hitter in the draft".

The scouting report on LaPorta at the time stated,

LaPorta has as much power as any bat, especially from the college ranks, in this draft class. He's got power to all fields and can hit the ball out of any ballpark with any kind of bat.

And,

He may never win a gold glove, but he's been OK at first defensively this year....Unless someone thinks he can play another position -- not a common belief -- LaPorta is limited to first base or DH duties in the future.

Nobody is going to argue that LaPorta's defensive abilities are minimal at best. But the best claim appears courtesy of Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein who reminds readers that LaPorta has made an alarmingly low amount of put outs this season. Thus asserting that LaPorta's range/awareness are minimal. Welcome to the American League kid!

Despite the defensive issues, LaPorta was tabbed as not needing a lot of time in the minors. This is good news for the Indians who could use LaPorta's power sooner, rather then later.

It is probably a good idea that the Brewers traded Zach Jackson, as his existence within the organization would have led to a lot of confusion with Zach Johnson. Both are young lefty pitchers, the one being a first round pick, the other being around to confuse the accounting department.

Zach Jackson began his professional career with an outstanding start in the Blue Jays minor league system. During his first season of pro ball, he went from High A to Triple A. This was clearly a mistake by the Jays as Jackson should have come along much slower. The club ended up trading him after his first season to the Brewers in the Lyle Overbay trade.

The Brewers didn't do Jackson any favors, keeping him at Triple A as a struggling 23 year old. This damage has been particularly noted as Jackson's career high in innings pitched stands at under 170, during his age 24 season in 2007.

John Sickels rated Jackson as a B prospect for his first season in the Brewers system. A nice grade for such a young pitcher, but that grade has dropped to a C grade entering this season.

Jackson gives the Indians a major league ready left handed pitcher, but essentially nothing else. Being predominantly used out of the bullpen this season, it will be interesting to see what the Indians have in mind with Jackson. Obviously Shapiro did his homework, let's see if he was right.

Young righty reliever Robert Bryson has taken a step back during his age 20 season, however has still been effective. Sickels rated Bryson as a C+ prospect this season, although I'm not certain if that is more reflective of Sickels opinion on 19 year old relievers, or on a purely stuff analysis.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus rated Bryson as the 10th best prospect in the Brewers organization. Here is what Goldstein wrote about Bryson entering this season,

Year In Review: A $300,000 draft-and-follow from the gambit's last season in existence, Bryson looked to be worth every penny in his pro debut.
The Good: Bryson offers plenty to dream on. He has strong mechanics with a good leg drive and quick, fluid arm action, which allows him to pound the strike zone with 91-94 mph fastballs while occasionally hitting 96 when he rears back for something extra. He shows some feel for a slider, and seems to bring his entire game a step forward in pressure situations.
The Bad: Because he's from Delaware and has just one year of junior college experience, Bryson is pretty unrefined. He needs to find much greater consistency with his breaking ball, and his changeup is rudimentary, which gives him problems against left-handed hitters. More than anything else, he just needs innings. He has a stocky build, and might need to watch his conditioning down the road.
Fun Fact: In Bryson's final start for Seminola College, he struck out 12 over eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits–-while throwing 132 pitches.
Perfect World Projection: Bryson's ceiling is considerably high, but he's also far from it.
Timetable: Bryson will make his highly-anticipated full-season debut at Low-A.

The gamble certainly has paid off for the Brewers, although I wonder what they saw his long term role as. Shapiro tabbed him as a 'reliever', but Bryson appears to be spending a decent amount of time logging long innings. Overall, it feels as if Bryson is a lot like the Indians' Jensen Lewis, which isn't a bad thing at all.

Lastly, the PTBNL, apparently this was a vital part of the trade and it will be interesting to see who the player is. Shapiro is quoted as saying, "the deal doesn't get done without the" PTBNL. Typically teams are provided with a list of players whom they can scout slightly closer and pick a player from that list. The Indians apparently have until the end of the season to make their decision, although from the sounds of things, the decision is already made. Chances are, the player is playing at a low level of the minors, and Shapiro wants to get a closer look at him.

That being the case, two of the four players I mentioned previously would still be in play. Braddock, a personal favorite of mine, and Frerichs, a player whom intrigues me to a great extent. As a side note, I think the Brewers have corned the market on players named 'Zach', wow!

Clearly this was the best trade on the table, and as I mentioned, a trade Shapiro HAD to pull the trigger on. Waiting, could have given the Brewers cold feet, or could have resulted in a Sabathia injury. In fact, a solid Tribe winning streak would have made it difficult for Shapiro to pull the trigger on this deal.

However, during the press conference, Shapiro discussed why he choose to trade Sabathia rather then hold him on for draft picks. He states that between the expected time frame of a drafted player (3-5 years) as well as development were important factors. Shapiro claims that even a player moving up to High A ball is far ahead of player to be drafted next season.


As an Indians fan, I love this trade. I feel as though there really isn't a winner or a loser. The Brewers should be able to replace LaPorta, Bryson, and the PTBNL with the compensatory picks, not requiring any one of them immediately. The Indians have more pressing needs and will benefit from LaPorta, who immediately becomes the clubs #1 prospect and strengthens a solid minor league system (I will provide an Indians prospect list after this week).

As a supporter/bandwagoner of the Tampa Bay Rays, this trade also works out well. The Sox, Yanks, etc are now out of the Sabathia sweepstakes. Additionally, with 6 games remaining against the Indians, the odds of facing Sabathia at least once were substantial. Now the Rays will benefit from facing Jeff Weaver at least once...Not a terrible turn of events for the Rays despite a heart breaking loss this afternoon.

Update - 07/07/08 - 5:15PM EST
According to MLB.com, the PTBNL is reported to be either Taylor Green or Michael Brantley, "both of whom are considered prime prospects." From what I can see, both would be outstanding additions and would have a promising big league career ahead.