Adam Miller Watch - May 15, 2008 in Review

Check out MiLB.com's Gameday for Adam Miller's showing against the PawSox on May 15, 2008.

In another quality start, Miller held the PawSox to two runs over six innings while just missing out on the complete game. This has got to go down as Adam's most efficient start of the season and one in which he would look to build on going forward. The one thing that is worrisome about this start is the lack of strikes which Adam threw, something Lovullo touched on in the post game press conference (below). This same lack of control is something that would cause Miller a lot more trouble in the majors and may be something that keeps him in Triple A all season.

This, however, would hurt Miller's shot at making a bid for the bullpen down the stretch, a position Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer believed was to be Miller's ticket to the bigs for 2008. That is, if a pitcher cannot throw strikes in the first inning when they have some leeway in terms of allowing base runners and consequently runs, how will he make an impact with the bullpen.

What is most alarming in my estimation is the amount of hitters Miller is starting off with a ball. Against the PawSox on the 15th Miller started three of the first six hitters off with a ball. One of the three that had a strike swung at a pitch that looked to be well out of the zone. Interestingly, two of the three that started the at bat out with a ball ended up on base.

The second and third innings saw Miller be around the plate where he racked up his first strikeout. Still, even in Miller's best inning he started a third of the hitters off with a ball.

In the forth inning, Miller's inability to finish off a hitter could have easily been exposed. What is interesting about this inning is the ability of the hitters to not chance pitches out of the strike zone. That is, a pitcher with the kind of stuff that Miller possesses should be able to trick hitters more frequently. What this tells me is that Miller is not being very deceptive and is being too predictable. Throwing a slider in certain counts and staying away form it in others. This could be a lack of confidence in the pitch, or a worry that his injury may sneak back up.

The fifth inning MiLB Gameday data shows that Miller was extremely close to the zone with all of his pitches. Despite starting two of three hitters out with balls Miller was just missing. Again, the concern about being unable to fool hitters arises, as Miller is not going to continue to have such fortune with balls in play in every start. That is, however, unless Miller is doing such a good job at tricking hitters that they are unable to put good wood on the balls.

Much the same in the sixth inning, with two of the three batters Miller faced taking the first pitch for a ball. The hitters appeared to be seeing the ball quite well at this point, as they were taking a lot of early swings and connecting. Fortunately for Miller, the balls were hit directly to his fielders.

While the control for Miller still is not there and the strikeout rate does leave a little to be desired Miller is inducing a good number of ground balls. The line drive rate is not out of this world and he is obviously doing something right to own a 0.0 home run per fly ball rate.

Check out Torey Lovullo's post game press conference, here where he comments on Miller's start and briefly touches on the struggles Miller has endured to this point.

The Instant Replay Debate

I offer up a respone to Bill Chuck's recent assertion that it is time for MLB to implement instant replay. Check it out over at Baseball Digest Daily. Feel free to leave comments or questions here or on the BDD board.

Noteworthy Events

Jason Werth, who? Right. Werth almost hit the 'home run cycle' where he would have hit a home run of the solo, two run, three run and grand slam kind in the same game. He fell one dinger short in what would have been a miraculous performance.

However, how much more miraculous would this have been then 3 grand slams? Or had he hit more then 10 RBI's in the same amount of at bats?

This occurrence-the 'cycle'-and its value is similar to the triple double in basketball. Or the 1000 yard rusher in football. Or even the 100 RBI or .300 hitter in baseball. How much less valuable is it for a hitter to have 4 doubles in a game? Or what about 2 triples, a single and a home run? Or 2 home runs and 2 singles? The value, is relative to what occurs beyond that happening.

Jon Lester, a recent survivor of cancer, threw a no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals this evening. He walked two and struck out nine in what will be one of the most memorable no-hitters in major league history. From Aaron Gleeman at Rotoworld, "Between beating cancer, winning the World Series-clinching Game 4 against the Rockies last October, and no-hitting the Royals, it's been quite a run for Lester."

Last year Lester qualified for a feel good story of the year but this year he is simply looking to stay in the Red Sox rotation. Within the same organization, Bartolo Colon is fighting to get back into the majors after suffering through injuries and being tabbed as overweight. His current minor league numbers have proven to be a success, with reports that he is pumping his fastball into the mid/high 90's. Colon may get himself into the running for this years award.

Televised baseball typically produces worse commentators. I'm not sure why that is, but for some reason the best play by play announcers seem to do radio broadcasts. This past Sunday night, towards the end of a Mets-Yankees blowout, the commentator (whom I am unsure if he was doing play by play for the Yankees, Mets or ESPN) brought something to my attention that I had never known.

The New York Metropolitans, or the Amazin's, arrived as an expansion team in 1962, 5 years after the Brooklyn Dodgers and New York (baseball) Giants had left the big apple for the west coast. When the Mets arrived, they borrowed their name from an 1880's ballclub, however, that is not all they borrowed.

Upon closer inspection of the Mets logo and color, something obviously sticks out. Maybe this owns up to some ignorance, but the colors the Mets utilized were symbolic of the two teams who left the city to head west. Utilizing Dodger Blue and Giant Orange, the Mets had chosen their color scheme.

I'm certain any Mets baseball fan could tell me that, or maybe anyone who was around when the Dodgers and Giants resided in NYC, but for me, this was news. And interesting news at that.

Oh, and Ryan Ludwick, what is going on with you??? The ex-Bison is off to an incredible start this season for the St. Louis Cardinals. Having posted a minor league career high of a .642 OPS, the 30 year old is raking for the Cards this year. While the numbers are incredibly unsustainable, seeing Ludwick on pace to shatter even his minor league career high in total number of home runs is sort of nice. Another interesting factoid, Ludwick strikes out like crazy! Ludwick owns a minor league strikeout rate of 26.7%. His major league rate is also alarmingly high at 27.1%. Placing that figure into context, Adam Dunn has a major league rate of 33.3% and Placido Polanco sits at 7.0%

Blogger Poll - National League Awards for Week 6

Over at Baseball Digest Daily I reflect upon my first vote at Baseball Happenings. Last week's vote was a poll for the National League up to May 10th, 2008. Check out my reflection at BDD and then flip on over to Baseball Happenings to see how my votes compared to those in the baseball community.

Adam Miller Watch - May 9, 2008 in Review

The Adam Miller watch returns in what may be a rain out here in Buffalo. It is the middle of May and Miller is yet to pitch in a game where the weather cooperated for him. However, maybe that has come as a good thing as Miller has not allowed an earned run in 3 of his 4 starts to date. It also should be noted that Miller had his best start of the season following his worst.

On May 9th, Miller pitched five very strong innings, allowing only 3 hits and surrendering 2 walks while accumulating 4 strikeouts. Each of the hits Miller surrendered were for singles with one of the hitters making it to second on a steal. I am curious as to whether or not Miller's tall stature has an effect on how effective he can be controlling the running game.

It is interesting to note that Miller threw only 54 of 85 pitches for strikes. To date, his control still is not entirely there. He does have the stuff to succeed while being wild in the minors, but major league hitters would eat him up.

In viewing last week's MiLB Gameday, we can see that Miller started off this start with two strikeouts, both on swinging strikes on pitches in the zone. I have noticed that a lot of Miller's pitches are being fouled off and am curious what relationship this has with how Miller is currently pitching.

In the second inning, Miller was battling with every hitter he faced, allowing the first two to reach on singles after multiple balls were fouled off. As you can see with the at bat against Buscher (image right), we can see that Miller appeared to be unable to truly trick the journeyman. For a pitcher of Miller's stuff, he should not have this type of difficulty in getting a hitter to hit his pitch. Another thing to take note of, Miller was fortunate that two of five hitters he faced put the ball in play on the first pitch of the at bat. Even still, Miller allowed three base runners on 25 pitches. Fortunate for Adam was a nicely turned double play.

The third inning was a different story for Adam as he was able to set the side down in order along with a dominating strikeout against hot hitting Denard Span.

Entering the bottom of the forth, Miller had thrown 43 pitches and was looking as if he could eat up some serious innings and possibly earn a victory. He kept this up by throwing 7 pitches on his way to setting down the side.

Up by two runs, Miller had just posted two of his most efficient back to back innings of the season. After this point, Adam was poised to go 7, if not 8 innings for the longest start of his young season. That, however came to a quick close as he again struggled to put a hitter away. Garrett Jones, whom you might otherwise know for his outstanding minor league on base percentage (.325) took Miller to the ropes lining out to center on 8 pitches. Another 6 pitches to Morales and Miller has sat down to hitters on a total of 14 pitches. However, things began to again unfurl as hitters continued to foul pitches off and Miller could not fool anyone with a pitch outside of the strike zone. An 8 pitch at bat and Basak reaches on a soft fly ball to left, Casilla walks on 5 pitches (4 straight balls) and finally Miller finishes off the inning. Although not before throwing 8 pitches to Span. In total, the fifth inning took Miller 35 pitches, jumping him up to 85 and consequently ending his evening.

A (different) source close to the team reported that Miller is still working in the low 90s and is improving with each start. Additionally, the news is good from the perspective of the Cleveland Indians as Miller has been holding up fine to date.