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Showing posts with label All Star Game. Show all posts
Showing posts with label All Star Game. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Three Days Without Baseball

Wow! So what is a person supposed to do with oneself?

They can reflect on complaints that I simply do not understand in regards to the All Star Game and it's current 'This time it's for real' format. Now this is the second (maybe third) time I am going to sound like a Bud Selig apologist. And I understand that most think baseball would be better off without Selig, but this is simply something I can not comprehend.

As we all know, Major League Baseball's All Star Game determines which league will have home field advantage for the World Series. In doing so, Selig, and Major League Baseball anticipate a more competitive game and less of an exhibition. To be honest, what can possibly be wrong about that, seeing players give it their all for the ever important home field advantage.

Interestingly, a more competitive game has occurred, since the 7-7 debacle in 2002. That is, in the 6 All Star Games since the inception of this rule, 4 have been decided by one run, and a 5th by only two. Prior to the rule, we have to go all the way back to 1986 to find the 4th game which was decided by a single run. While the sample size is undeniably small, it is difficult to argue with the current results-a more tightly contested match. Similarly, it is difficult to conclude that the new rule is the lone factor for an increase in competitiveness, but it is also tough to argue against such.

Jon Heyman at SI.com discusses how close the game was to again becoming controversial. The argument Heyman presents discusses how both JD Drew and David Wright were warming up in their respective bullpens due to both sides being out of pitchers. I find that this argument has a few flaws, and intend to touch on them in this post.

First, what is the problem with a position player getting into a game? It isn't as if this never occurs. In fact, according to Recondite Baseball, 6 position players got into a game during the 2007 to pitch. Surprisingly, the majority of every MLB team has endured this 'controversial' issue in the new millennium. In most cases, the game was a blowout, and from my memory, most seemed to do alright on the bump.

However, since MLB is implementing instant replay on boundary calls which affect the results of maybe 2 in over 2500 games, should it not be 'controversial' every time a team has to put a position player on the mound? Heyman writes, "But they are not pitchers. And if pitcher Drew and/or pitcher Wright determined home field in the World Series, well, that would have been just plain silly." But it wouldn't be silly for a team to not make the playoffs due to a position player taking the bump during a regular season game? Should this not be chalked up to mis-management?

That is, picture game 7 of the World Series, in the 18th inning. An epic Sunday night battle. But because of how close the game has been, the managers have been moving pitchers in and out of the lineup to take advantage of match ups. Picture David Ortiz taking the bump...I'm certain fans and sportswriters alike aren't going to want to see the World Series Champion crowned in that scenario.

Or how about this, the Padres have been involved in this season's two longest ballgames. A 22 inning marathon against the Colorado Rockies, and an 18 inning affair against the Cincinnati Reds. Not surprisingly, the Padres are in last place in all of baseball. More devastating then that, both starting pitchers who entered the game for the Reds, Harang and Volquez, have seen their seasons fade significantly.

While Harang pitched brilliantly during that relief outing, he has since been placed on the Disabled List and seen his ERA rise nearly a run, while getting bombed in 5 of his 8 starts since. Similarly, Volquez has seen his impossibly low ERA rise just under a run, posting the worst month of his season. While it is certainly an inconclusive leap, I wouldn't be surprised if the relief outing for those pitchers has had a lasting effect.

Let's get back to the 'mis-management' by both the American and National League. Respectively, Francona used 12 pitchers, while the Hurdle allowed 11 of his pitchers to go out there (Tim Lincecum was the 12th for the National League and went to the hospital prior to the game). But 11 or 12 pitchers for 15 innings? If that doesn't scream, 'overly competitive', I don't know what does.

I do understand the responsibility of the managers, abiding by a gentleman's code to not overwork any one pitcher. That is, to not overwork any one pitcher, and to avoid using a pitcher who had extensive work on Saturday or Sunday. But of the 23 pitchers who entered the game, only 8 went above 20 pitches.

Let's also keep in mind that 13 of these 23 pitchers were of the starting variety, reaching to 20, 25, even 30 pitches should not have been out of the realm of possibility. Especially with essentially every team off until Friday evening.

All that being said, why blame Selig for this 'issue', why not ask the managers why they were switching pitchers so frequently? Are we really to believe that Roy Halladay was on a 9 pitch limit? Or fellow single digit tossers, Billy Wagner, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Rodriguez. It is interesting to note that these 3 pitchers have combined for 13 single digit outings thus far this season. To say that they were 'babied' at the All Star Game is a leap, and then some! (As a side, it is equally interesting to see that the most used pitcher-innings and pitches-was Colorado's only legitimate starting pitcher, Aaron Cook, whom Hurdle manages).

So what was the problem? Why was it that the pitchers were being babied to such a degree? Certainly the pitchers do work on the side in between starts.

Ken Rosenthal, of FOX Sports, writes,
Which is why alternate pitchers should be the next step. We're not talking about expanding the roster from 32 players. We're just talking about common sense. If it isn't in the best interests of a Kazmir or Webb to pitch in the All-Star Game, then they shouldn't pitch. Yes, clubs might need to pay one or two more All-Star bonuses to the alternates, but that would be a small sacrifice for preserving their top pitchers' arms.
That is a fine argument. However, recall the Padres-Reds marathon mentioned earlier. The marathon may have been the culprit to ruining Aaron Harang's season. So should extra inning games be eliminated altogether?

That is, would adding 2, or 3, or 4, or 12 pitchers make the likelihood of running out of pitchers any less? Maybe it would add an inning or two of security, but maybe it would cause a more 'match-up' oriented approach from the manager.

Thus, my suggestion would be to force managers to send out the pitchers for at least 2 innings, with the 9th inning being an exception. Additionally, pitchers would be on strict pitch counts, say 15 or 20 for relievers (which would get all through more then 1 inning) and 30 to 45 for starters. These pitch counts would vary dependent on when the last outing was by said pitcher.

I will have to admit, however, that if the ballgame makes it to 20 innings, there may be a problem. Mostly, in that I would worry what MLB and FOX would do for commercial breaks?


There is an argument which suggests that the game might as well be ended in a tie. People assert that Selig's new rule-despite the aforementioned, increased competitiveness-should be trashed and the old system of rotating World Series host cities return. While ratings would presumably be on par with Spring Training baseball, there is a further argument for the new rule.

Home field advantage. It is important. While not outstandingly significant, 8 of 13 World Series' have been won by the team with home field advantage. However, what is significant is that home teams have a cumulative 57% winning percentage at home. Specifically, the American League (which has only 2 teams below .500 at home) has a 59% winning percentage at home, while the National League (with 3 teams below .500) sits at 55%. In other words, a substantial deviation from home and road performances-something that Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus further details.

MLB commissioner Bud Selig had the following to say after the game,
"Everybody understood the ground rules," Selig said. "There was no misunderstanding. There was no contingency. We were going to play the game to the end. That was the contingency. What happened in Milwaukee will not happen again. I really believe that the things that we implemented worked. If we hadn't done them back then there's no question we would've had a problem tonight. But it worked out. In the end it didn't matter."
Which is an excellent point, everybody did understand the ground rules. Both Francona and Hurdle understood that they had x amount of pitchers to get through the game, no matter how long the game went for. Mis-managing their respective clubs should not come back on Bud Selig, but on the managers of the ballgames.


I will concede one aspect of a flaw in MLB's All Star game. Eric Seidman at FanGraphs wraps it up by stating,
Overall, IF the game supposedly counts:

a) No more fan voting
b) No more requirements about representatives from each team
c) Pitchers who can actually pitch are selected
d) More starters than closers
e) Pitchers have to go at least one full inning

If it doesn’t count, do whatever you want. It’s a fun game, there should be no real rules other than to have fun...
And who could argue with that?

BallHype: hype it up!

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

The Outsiders' National League All Stars

Yesterday I posted who I think should have represented the American League in tonight's All Star Game. I know you have been desperately waiting to see who I pick for the National League. From yesterday's post,
I will select 25 players and do my best to select a member from each ballcub-although I am not going to leave out a deserving candidate to fulfill this requirement. I will ensure that not only are specific position requirements met, but also that the most viable lineup is put together. Over at Baseball Musings, David Pinto has a formula which does much of the work, so I will have to give him credit, where credit is due.
So here they are...

National League Starting Lineup

SS - Jose Reyes
CF - Nate McLouth
1B - Lance Berkman
3B - Chipper Jones
DH - Albert Pujols
LF - Pat Burrell
2B - Dan Uggla
C - Ryan Doumit
RF - Ryan Ludwick

In similar fashion to the American League, David Pinto suggests a vastly different lineup to maximize production. According to the analysis, this group of National League players (in a substantially different arrangement), would produce over 7.5 runs per game. However, the analysis does not take into account speed, nor steals. That is, the lineup analysis would be content with a team full of base clogging power hitters. While speed does not have a major impact on the hitter below, it does have enough for me to warrant placing above average hitters in Reyes and McLouth at the top of the lineup, utilizing their speed.

With four switch hitters in the lineup, this lineup could be a nightmare for a left handed starter, while still being effective against righties.

National League Bench

Brian McCann
Chase Utley
Hanley Ramirez
David Wright
Matt Holliday
Jason Bay
Carlos Beltran

Picking this bench was not as difficult as picking the American League bench. The reason being, some of the players that were picked for the starting lineup were picked based on a specific skill set. That is, I feel Reyes is a more worthy top of the order bat then Ramirez is. Dan Uggla brings a lot of strikeouts, but also an incredible power stroke. In all, I don't feel anyone was truly left off this list that was deserving this season.

Furthermore, let it be known that there are not going to be many defensive substitutions, unlike the American League which is deep in quality defenders. Additionally, this bench features only one left handed bat.

National League Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher - Tim Lincecum
Imagine the type of season Lincecum would be having if the Giants were a better team? Little Tim leads the National League in both Win Probability Added (WPA) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). Two very strong indicators of the value he has had to the Giants this season. If I'm the manager of the National League club, I'm telling Lincecum to toe the rubber like a reliever, 'Get me 6-9 outs kid'.

P - Ben Sheets
P - Edinson Volquez
P - Cole Hamels
P - Carlos Zambrano

The list of deserving starting pitchers for the National League is long, too long. Dan Haren, Aaron Cook, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Ryan Dempster, Chad Billingsley, and rookie Jair Jurrjens all have had legitimate All Star type seasons.

RP - Hong Chih Kuo
RP - Takashi Saito
RP - Brian Wilson
RP - Kerry Wood
CL - Brad Lidge

In retrospect, eliminating two relievers (Wilson and Wood) and adding two starters may have been preferable to the direction I choose. However, with the aforementioned list of starters, it would have been equally as difficult to pick only two deserving starters.

National League Legitimate Snubs

The aforementioned starters - Each one proposes a legitimate case to making the All Star team. If I were to pick two, they would have been Aaron Cook and Chad Billingsley.

For Cook, he is a workhorse who goes unnoticed because half of his starts are at Coors Field-although there is an argument to be made that Coors Field actually helps Cook.

Had Billingsley not started the season by getting thumped in 3 of his first 4 starts, we are talking about a legitimate Cy Young candidate. Additionally, despite having a rather high walk rate, Billingsley throws a fair amount of strikes, I haven't checked out his Pitch F/X data to see what kind of swing and miss statistics he has, but clearly he is doing something right.

Taylor Buchholz - Similar to JP Howell for the American League, Buchholz has been extremely impressive. The ex-starter seems to have found a place in the bullpen and in Colorado.

Carlos Lee - Simply put, Lee is one of many great left fielders in the National League. Unfortunately there are too many who are having a better season then Lee.

Derek Lee - Surprisingly, National League first basemen are having fairly disappointing showings to this point. Lee isn't doing anything spectacular, and because of that, is on the outside looking in.

Geovanny Soto - Considering the outstanding statistical season Soto is having, he is doing very little for the Cubs to help them win. His WPA sits at .35 and sits 7th in the National League among catchers. Russell Martin, on the other hand, has a very legitimate beef as he is blowing away the competition in terms of WPA.


Utilizing David Pinto's Lineup Analysis tool, the ideal lineup for National League hitters would have, as mentioned, provided over 7.5 runs. The American League would have put up slightly under 7 runs. While the forecaster does not take into account pitching, park factors, speed, etc, I feel as though the National League has a superior squad.

Which leads to the debate, should the All Star Game count?

BallHype: hype it up!

Hit 'em to Hamilton

Apparently Josh Hamilton can hit the ball far.



That's fairly entertaining. For every home run, head over to MLB.com.



I feel pretty sorry for the Ranger batting practice pitcher. Between Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Ian Kinsler.

Monday, July 14, 2008

The Outsiders' American League All Stars

Since everyone else is doing it, I'm going to chime in with my personal All Stars. I will select 25 players and do my best to select a member from each ballcub-although I am not going to leave out a deserving candidate to fulfill this requirement. I will ensure that not only are specific position requirements met, but also that the most viable lineup is put together. Over at Baseball Musings, David Pinto has a formula which does much of the work, so I will have to give him credit, where credit is due.

American League Starting Lineup

CF - Grady Sizemore
2B - Ian Kinsler
3B - Alex Rodriguez
DH - Milton Bradley
RF - JD Drew
LF - Carlos Quentin
1B - Justin Morneau
C - Dioner Navarro
SS - Michael Young

Although this isn't the lineup that David Pinto's lineup forecaster suggests to utilize, I feel this lineup would really give an opposing pitcher troubles, regardless of throwing arm. Of course, almost any All Star lineup without Jason Varitek would do so. The only major change I could see, would be to swap Bradley and Rodriguez in the batting order.

American League Bench

Joe Mauer
Kevin Youkilis
Brain Roberts
Carlos Guillen
Josh Hamilton
Nick Markakis
Ichiro Suzuki

This was a tough list to compile. A lot of deserving players missed the cut, such as Evan Longoria and Jason Giambi. However, the ability to play multiple positions played nearly as big of a role as did raw statistics. That is, Guillen received an extra vote of confidence in his ability to play both corner infield positions, as well as short stop.

American League Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher - Roy Halladay
Doc get the nod for me because he has to regularly face near all star lineups against the Red Sox and Yankees. His presence also allows for one fewer reliever to be carried and an additional starter.

P - Justin Duchscherer
P - Scott Kazmir
P - Cliff Lee
P - Felix Hernandez
P - John Lackey

Picking the pitchers was probably more difficult then picking the hitters. Among starters, there were a lot of worthy candidates who had to be left off simply due to numbers. John Danks, Ervin Santana, and Zach Greinke specifically stand out, as pitchers who would have made the cut in almost any year. Each are plenty deserving of a spot on this years All Star team. Additionally, had Shaun Marcum not went down with an injury, he would have made the rotation.

RP - Scott Downs
RP - Joakim Soria
RP - Francisco Rodriguez
CL - Mariano Rivera

Choosing relievers is somewhat subjective. While I wanted to ensure the pitchers had been valuable to their respective clubs, I also wanted to ensure that the pitchers were having a dominant season and would be having similar successes on any other Major League team. Specifically, Scott Shields, Joba Chamberlain, Scott Linebrink, and Jim Johnson are set up men who are going unnoticed simply because they are not in a flashy role. Similarly, people forget how incredible of a job Joe Nathan does because he pitches for Minnesota.

American League Legitimate Snubs

Manny Ramirez - Manny has the highest WPA in the entire American League, so why leave him out? Why not sit and enjoy 3 days of Manny being Manny in New York City? Well, I feel that other players have done more for their specific teams. While Manny has been outstanding, specifically in the abscence of David Ortiz, he has had a spectacular supporting cast. Unlike Quentin who had to carry the Sox on his own through much of May.

Dustin Pedroia - Same situation here. This is not to take anything away from the season that Pedroia has had, but hitting in this lineup makes anyone look good. Remember when Rich Aurilla was raking with the Giants?

David DeJesus - Despite missing some time due to an injury, DeJesus is having a remarkable, yet unnoticed season. I guess I joined the snub party.

JP Howell - Who? Howell has been rocksteady in the Rays vastly improved bullpen. There is a legitimate argument that this pick shows that I know nothing about baseball.

I already named the starters who it was hard to leave off of the list. I took a close look at both Joe Saunders and Daisuke Matsuzaka as two pitchers to include in my snubs list. I'm simply not sure either one of them are putting up sustainable enough numbers to legitimize their selection on this list.


Next up, my National League All Stars....

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