THE RETURN OF Article of the Week for the Week of June 8 - 14

Squawking Baseball has long been one of my favorite websites to check out. The author does a great job of not overloading the readers through not making several posts a day. This is something I have tried to emulate by keeping my posts to a daily routine, when possible, and trying to keep it at no more then one per day. I personally feel there is a lot of excellent articles to read online, why should I hog up all your time? Also, if I am out writing an article a day, how would I possibly have time to read all the other outstanding stuff out there?

All that being said, Squawking Baseball is self proclaimed as "Wall Street analysis of Major League Baseball's player market". Furthermore, the stated purpose of Squawking Baseball is,

[To]stay in front of the trends, play the cards right, and, hopefully, stay in contention.

That’s where we come in. We are baseball people first and foremost. Despite tender ages (mostly early to mid-20s), everyone on our staff has experience in a Major League front office, as well as outside businesses. Some of us also happen to be Wall Street junkies, consistently beating the stock market by staying ahead of the curve. What we hope to create with this blog is an outlet for us, and others, to look at the market for baseball talent with the same kind of thoughtful, diligent outlook.

This is precisely what drew me to Squawking Baseball and has continued to draw me in. That is, the discovery of baseball through an economic perspective. There are plenty of rumor websites, plenty of team blogs, plenty of sabermetric websites, but very few that are dedicated to understanding how and why managers exploit the market-although, isn't the 'why' obvious?

This week's article of the week is a look back on Major League Baseball's Rule IV draft. Shawn of Squawking Baseball asks, 'Is the Draft Efficient?'

In this post, the author (Shawn) discusses the merits of baseball's current draft system. Shawn acknowledges the system which allows the players to make up their salary demands, which in some cases results in inferior players being selected due to signability. However, this is only a partial flaw, as for the most part, the best players in the draft are going with the top picks.

Shawn writes,

But there’s another facet to this that I think is pretty interesting: the draft inherently changes the sport’s incentive-structure, as it rewards the league’s worst teams. In other words, if you’re not going to be good, you may as well try to be awful. Does this lower the quality of play, and therefore hurt the product? It’s very tough to say.

While a valid point, the baseball draft is unlike any other of the professional sports. That is, most even the very best draft picks, take several years before they make it to the majors, and even longer before they are truly impact players. Furthermore, when one considers that there is a 2 in 50 chance of selecting a meaningful player in the draft, those best players become even more of a rare breed. While 2 in 50 might be somewhat of an exaggeration, consider that many of the players on a MLB roster were not selected in the draft as they were considered international.

However, the author concludes,

But overall, I think the draft accomplishes its goals. Top-tier amateur talent is distributed to the teams that need it (or value it) the most, in effect allowing bad teams to shorten their success cycles. As we’ve learned from the expanded playoff system, any mechanism that allows more teams to be competitive without shaving significant dollars off of big market teams’ top lines is generally good for the sport.

It is tough to argue with this sentiment. While the poor teams will struggle to be annual threats, if they play their cards correctly and make intelligent and timely moves, it is tough to imagine the teams are without hope.

MLB's Rule IV Draft

With MLB's Rule IV draft but days away, here is an explanation of how the draft works at Baseball America (courtesy MLB Trade Rumors). The Rule IV draft, for those who do not know, is baseball's amateur draft where highschoolers and college players alike have their hopes and dreams of heading towards their childhood dream come true.

According to MLB.com,

MLB.com will have exclusive coverage of the remaining rounds on Day 1 with live analysis from The Milk House by Draft expert Jonathan Mayo. Coverage will begin at 11:30 a.m. on Day 2 and continue through to the final pick. MLB.com's coverage will also feature two days of live video from Florida on BaseballChannel.TV.

In addition, MLB.com's live Draft Tracker will provide a searchable database of every Draft-eligible player that will feature biographical data, statistics, scouting reports and, in many cases, scouting video.

This will be the first year that the MLB draft is open to fans and will undoubtedly head in the direction of making the draft more of an event. With MLB's 24-hour channel on the horizon, the league certainly wants to ensure that all the draft day kinks are ironed out before jumping feet first into the venture.

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo has done an outstanding job covering the draft, providing readers with a weekly report on the players who have declared for the draft. Check it out.

Over at Minor League Ball.com, John Sickels provides his readers with a first round mock draft, selecting 30 players involved in the 'regular' picks, and 29 'supplemental picks'. Here is a sneak preview of John's top 10 as well as the token Canadian highschooler:

1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Seems like the most logical pick to me.
2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Pirates prove they are willing to spend $$.
3) Royals: Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Royals opt for close-to-ready bat.
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Can't pass him up.
5) Giants: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Excellent bat, close to ready.
6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: The rumors make sense to me.
7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Best player available.
8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: System thin on hitting could use him.
9) Nationals: Aaron Hicks, RHP, California HS: Nats decide he's a pitcher.
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: Astros opt for "safe" college pitcher.
14) Twins: Brett Lawrie, INF, Canada HS: Twins pick cold-weather bat, hoping for another Morneau and worried that he won't last to 27.

Jonathan Mayo also has his first round mock draft at MLB.com. There are not a whole lot of deviations from the predictions as both seem to be following their leads from MLB executives and scouts a like.

What is most interesting about projecting the draft is how much of a crap shoot the MLB draft is. While teams are certainly becoming more efficient with their scouting, having to wait 2 or 3 years for even the best prospects is a troubling task for many fans. This year, it is said that there is truly no consensus #1 pick and unlike many years, the draft does not appear to be incredibly deep. Which leads me to wonder, why are the Rays looking for 'best available' when they could potentially fill a hole with a quick signing relief pitcher that is major league ready but has a relatively low ceiling.

Enjoy the coverage.