Ray Pride Part X - Taking 2 of 3 The 'Hard' Way

Tonight, I'm not going to take a stab at the TBS crew who took care of the Rays-Sox game. I'm not going to go over the highlights of the ballgame, nor am I going to discuss how I envision the remainder of the American League Championship Series capping off. Rather, what I am going to do is remind everyone of the nice showing of Rays fans at Fenway and the 'Fenway Faithful'-those who bailed before the game was over-have they not seen Fever Pitch?

Actually, scratch that...

"Nobody on the Rays in thinking that this series is over"

Obviously. It is 2 to 1 and they just regained home field advantage, which hasn't been so advantageous. While the Rays were certainly thrilled to be winning the game, and had the ever important 'shift in momentum', the club still had to win 2 of the remaining 4 games.

And an old/terrible baseball quote,

"The Red Sox are down to their final strike..."

What exactly does this ever mean? Interestingly, the moment after the commentator made this comment, Mark Kotsay fouled a ball off. In other words, he had committed a strike-but apparently not the final one.

But what if the Sox would have gotten aboard? Would they have had only ONE strike to work with? If that's the case, Edwin Jackson should have allowed the hitter to get on base and simply dust the edges until he grabbed a strike, thus, ending the ballgame.

"Bill [James] points out that people like simple explanations, and LOVE simple explanations that are actually partially true."

Division by Division Recaps (2008 Season's End)

Before the season began I previewed each division. I discussed the major additions and key loses teams had suffered as well as giving my prediction of how teams would finish. I took a look at things at the mid-way point in the season, and came away quite pleased.

In similar fashion, I will also score my predictions utilizing the following formula:

• 1pt: Accurate prediction
• 2pts: Off by one place in the division.
• 3pts: Off by two places in the division.
• 4pts...

Whether I was over or under in my prediction will make no difference in this formula. It will be interesting to note if there are any division or league deviations. That is, whether or not I predict with the same accuracy from division to division and league to league.

In addition, I am going to include the PECOTA standings projection. However, I will not do an accuracy score for the PECOTA projections. Instead, I will simply compare accuracy.

AL East

I believe I am the only person to have picked the Rays to make the playoffs, let alone to win the division. If there is someone else around, I will share my crown as 'smrtest person ever' (intentional typ-o).

Pre Season Predictions:
Tampa
Toronto (*wildcard)
New York
Boston
Baltimore

PECOTA Projected Standings:
New York
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

Actual Standings:
Tampa (1)
Boston (3)
New York (1)
Toronto (3)
Baltimore (1)

3 of 5 correct. I simply flipped Toronto and Boston. I'd say 3 of 5 is pretty impressive. At the midpoint in the season, I had a score of 13. I finished at 9 here.

PECOTA matched me in accurately projecting the finishing places of 3 teams.

AL Central

The Central was an interesting division. Injuries truly affected how the division should have played out. That is, the Indians had terrible luck, losing Martinez, Hafner, and Carmona to major injuries, while the Twins had everything work out to perfection, managing to not suffer a major injury (Pat Neshek withstanding).

Pre Season Predictions:
Cleveland
Chicago
Detroit
Kansas City
Minnesota

PECOTA Projected Standings:
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City

Actual Standings:
Chicago (2)
Minnesota (4)
Cleveland (3)
Kansas City (1)
Detroit (3)

Only got 1 of 5 correct here. I must be given credit for having Detroit way out of the money, something hardly anyone agreed with. Also, Minnesota was my 'surprise team of the year'. Who picked KC to not finish last? Nobody!

I scored 13 at season's end here, the same as where things stood in June.

PECOTA did not accurately predict a single team in the Central, further displaying what a crazy season it was in this division.

AL West

If someone would have told me that Erik Bedard and JJ Putz were going to have zero impact on the Mariners this season, I probably drop them down a spot or two. Had I known Hamilton and Bradley were going to be two of the American League's best hitters, the Rangers would get bumped up.

AL West Predictions:
Seattle
LA Angels
Oakland
Texas

PECOTA Projected Standings:
LA Angels
Oakland
Seattle
Texas

Actual Standings:
LA Angels (2)
Texas (3)
Oakland (1)
Seattle (4)

I accurately predicted 1 of 4, as did PECOTA. The major difference, PECOTA did it at the top, I did it at the bottom.

My division score was again identical, sitting at 10 points. As I mentioned, Seattle was a big whiff for me here and is a team I can see rebounding in 2009 (health permitted).


So here I predicted 5 of 14 positions to be correct. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA nailed 4 of 14. I imagine one would be hard pressed to find a prediction that nailed 5 of 14 spots in the standings.

To the National League...

NL East

It's tough predicting a division where you have so many pre-conceived ideas of teams. A division where you dislike so many teams that you have a tough time placing biases aside and actually getting to the bottom of things. The NL East is that division for me. And while I didn't run away with this division, I certainly did better then Mr. Rosenthal, whom picked the Braves to go all the way!

NL East Predictions:
Philadelphia
Atlanta
New York
Washington
Florida

PECOTA Projected Standings:
New York
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Washington
Florida

Actual NL East Standings:
Philadelphia (1)
New York (2)
Florida (3)
Atlanta (3)
Washington (2)

Again, 1 of 5. Very few had Philly winning the division again and most claimed the Mets were the class of the National League. I scored 11 points here, the same score I had in June. The big surprise, something that I still cannot understand, the performance of the Florida Marlins. I'm still waiting for Jeff Francoeur's season to start.

This division saw me score 11 points for both today and in June.

PECOTA whiffed altogether on this division. They, like everyone else, picked the Mets to win the division.

NL Central

I took a great deal of heat when making my NL Central picks. I felt this was a year that the Cubs simply could not stay healthy. What I failed to acknowledge was how good of a ballplayer Mark DeRosa was!

NL Central Predictions:
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Chicago
Cincinnati
Houston
Pittsburgh

PECOTA Projected Standings:
Chicago
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Houston
Pittsburgh

Actual NL Central Standings:
Chicago (3)
Milwaukee (1)
St. Louis (3)
Houston (2)
Cincinnati (2)
Pittsburgh (1)

2 of 6. Pretty much everyone had St. Louis finishing waaay down in the division without a prayer to make the playoffs. This team was in it up until the last couple weeks of the season. But the Cubs pick is alright. Where would this team have been without Ryan Dempster being lights out? You think they still pick up Rich Harden? Had I known either of these variables would have occurred, chances are I'm picking the Cubs to win this division.

I tossed up a 12 here, 2 points less then I scored in June. A nice turn around.

PECOTA was on fire with that division nailing 3 of 6. Incredible accuracy.

NL West

I was very high on the Dodgers entering this season. Had I known they would land Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake for some minor league prospects, I probably would have bumped them up a slot. So too would have PECOTA I imagine.

NL West Predictions:
Arizona
Los Angeles (*wildcard)
San Diego
Colorado
San Francisco

PECOTA Projected Standings:
Arizona
Los Angeles
Colorado
San Diego
San Francisco

Actual NL West Standings:
Los Angeles (2)
Arizona (2)
Colorado (2)
San Francisco (2)
San Diego (3)

0fer. This is evidence of how impossible it is to accurately predict specific standings. I mean, I have the same bottom three in the division, claiming that none had a shot, I was right. My division score landed at 11 here, 3 points higher then my June predictions.

PECOTA only had the Dodgers losing out to the Diamondbacks by a marginal amount, but they made a great call in dropping the Padres out of the playoffs. I didn't see the playoffs, but I at least thought this club could be competitive.


Overall, I accurately projected 8 teams. PECOTA, also 8. In terms of playoff teams, I picked 3 of 8 correctly. PECOTA was fairly accurate dependent on their wild cards.

League Comparison:
American League - 32 (-4)
National League - 34 (+1)

Overall, I made some strides from the midway point. Where I took a marginal step back in the National League, I made up the equivalent of 4 spots in the standings. My final line sits at 66 compared to 69 in June.

For curiosity sake, let's quickly tally PECOTA's score:
AL East - 9
AL Central - 15
AL West - 8

NL East - 13
NL Central - 10
NL West - 9

American League - 32
National League - 32

PECOTA's projections were surprisingly consistent. In both cases they posted identical scores surpassing my projections by 2 points.


Overall, I have to say I am rather happy with how my predictions compare to that of PECOTA's. While the PECOTA system is predominantly computer based, mine is also based on emotions-which could explain the rankings of Boston, Toronto, Seattle, and Washington. Either way, I hope the 'accuracy' of my predictions will encourage readers to check out my work for seasons to come. It will also be interesting to see how, if at all, I manage to improve on a season by season basis.

Enjoy the playoffs!

Really? You Too TBS?

"One of the toughest things is to find a left handed pitcher who can get left handed hitters out."
-TBS Broadcaster

I'm actually going to leave this one alone-for now. What really stuck out, the continual affirmation that Hideki Okajima is a 'situational lefty'. You know, those tough to find, rare left handed pitchers that can get left handed hitters out. Those one's.

This doesn't even take a lot of research. By simply looking at the pitcher's seasons stats, the broadcaster could have ASSUMED that Okajima was not a situational lefty. Instead, because of Okajima's funky delivery (well, strange and uncomfortable looking head jerk), he must only be able to get lefties out.

"Well that's just not right"
-Deandre, It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia

Check out the following lefty/righty graphs, courtesy Fangraphs.com:
While Okajima is not as stellar against righties as he is against lefties, he is still classified as having a 'good' ERA. Interestingly, he is trending towards becoming a situational lefty, so maybe the commentators are hinting at something?

Okajima's strikeout per nine differs, yes, but not to the degree of a 'situational lefty'. Brian Shouse, is a much better example of a 'situational lefty'. Check out these deviating graphs:
Do you see that? Shouse is actually a TERRIBLE pitcher against righties. As a manager, you are making a mistake in allowing him to face anything more then a right handed pitcher. However, against lefties, he is downright spectacular, and has been for his entire career.

Interestingly, this journeyman, making $2M. A fairly low salary for a reliever with an ERA under 3.00. That is, consider how much Eric Gagne is making.


However, I don't expect a commentator to do all of that homework. That they called Okajima a 'situational lefty' is evidence enough that they aren't 100% familiar with the term (the specific name is LOOGY-Lefty One Out Guy, aka a 'situation'). That aside, had the commentator simply looked at Okajima's season stats, it would have become clear that he is not a LOOGY.

That is, Okajima logged 62 innings over 64 appearances. In other words, he essentially logged an inning per outing. How many teams toss three straight lefties at you? Shouse on the other hand, 51 1/3 innings spread over 69 outings.

Let's take this one step further though. If Okajima was a LOOGY pitcher, wouldn't he have a lot of quick outings? By simply showing the innings and apperances, I am ignoring any serious mop-up duty that he may have done during the 2008 season.

Thus, let's see how many inning plus outings Okajima had this season...45. In 64 appearances. The majority then, of Okajima's came while facing at least 3 batters. 70% to be exact.

Let's now look at Brian Shouse. 27 of Shouse's 69 outings saw him face at least 3 batters, extending an inning or more. A rate of 39%.

I thought we were supposed to get baseball's A squad for the playoffs? At this rate, I'd almost prefer Joe Morgan!

Ray Pride Part IX - Okay...

I didn't pick'em, but that doesn't mean I don't want the Rays to win. The problem is, I'm just not sure the Rays can do it. I worry they may be overly emotional. I worry that the Trop-which is seeming like a home field thus far-won't be a home field for the entire series (Sox fans are CRAZY!).

Here's what I wrote when selecting the Sox to win this series (keep in mind, I was cringing while writing it),

Red Sox over Rays in 5. The Red Sox ought to be able to steal a game at the Trop from Tampa. My heart still wants to pick the Rays, but I simply cannot go against the Sox again.

Like I said, my heart is still with the Rays, but the Sox have been taking me to the cleaners all year.

GO RAYS!

Well That Just Doesn't Make Sense

"You would rather challenge Manny [Ramirez] then walk him."
- FOX Broadcaster

Really? So according to the broadcaster, the Phillies Brad Lidge was better off getting a get em over fastball to baseball's best and hottest playoff hitter, then going around him and putting him on base? The broadcaster continued to urge that letting Manny on base was the last thing Lidge wanted to do.

While researching exactly how wrong this commentator was, I fell into an excellent website called Win Expectancy(.walkoutbalk.com). This website allows you to input inning by inning, out by out, situation by situation and calculate what the odds are that a team won. I choose to use the basic tool, which runs from the sample size of 1977 to 2006. Clearly this day and age things are slightly different, but the facts remain fairly constant.

Thus, I entered the following information:

• With the visiting (the Dodgers) team down by three runs, the odds of winning was about 2%;


• Had Manny instead been walked to start the inning, the odds jumped all the way up to 4.6%;


• However, had Manny instead hit a home run, the odds would have crept all the way up to 5.5%.

In other words, walking the leadoff man in this situation is a far better idea then what the commentator was suggesting, to challenge Manny. The same Manny who had already hit a homerun, one that was referred to as a 'jam shot'.

Keep in mind, the odds of Manny hitting a home run does not sit at 100%, however there is still no real reason for Lidge to give in. Let him get on base and allow the rest of the hitters to beat you.

That is, consider that even giving Manny first base means that he needs to go from first to home to score the same run he could have gotten from one swing of the bat. One bad pitch, or in Manny's case, a great pitch that he 'jammed' in the cozy confines of Citizen's Bank Park.

In other words, FOX Broadcaster, walking Manny was about as smart of an idea as there is. And judging from the 4 straight balls Manny saw, this was the idea Philadelphia had the second the dread-locked monster stepped to the plate.