Worst Blogger Alive....

Since the worst blogger died.

Quickly, San Francisco is still my pick to take the World Series. The Rangers have faired well to this point while not having to face the caliber of pitching that they will see from the Giants. Further, four of the possible seven games will take place in a pitchers ball park, where those can'o'corn homers will be more along their rightful lines.

I'm going with San Francisco in five, although I want to say six.

Either way, Giants win.

I think Panda has a huge series.

Gutting It Out

I don't know a lot, or really anything about cars, so I rarely if ever give my input regarding them. I don't follow basketball and probably couldn't name the "star" player on every team in the league, so I won't stick my nose into a discussion about basketball. Football, ditto. European soccer, same thing. When someone with a background in politics raises a point regarding politics, I typically concede to that person, assuming they know what they are talking about.

Why then, can't radio personalities do the same?

(Maybe the greater question is why I continue to go to the sources I do for entertainment).

I have in my short time writing made mistakes, lot's to be certain. I even mistakenly called right handed pitcher Clay Buchholz a lefty, and at the time, that was much of the reason I liked him as a prospect. I've even started a second, yet short lived blog about my favorite OHLer, Andrew Shaw because I felt as though he deserved to be drafted - didn't happen.

On the radio this afternoon I heard Jim Rome (guh!) give a monologue about how Roy "Doc" Halladay had one of the gutsiest performances in recently history. Rome even asserted that this performance may have overshadowed the performance of Curt Schilling a couple years back. Rome attempted to make it out as if Halladay's performance was the fuel to ignite the fire that was the Phillies win. You can bet that if the Phillies take this series, Rome will talk about how Halladay went out there on "one leg".

Here's the scoop if you missed out on it.

Halladay claimed to have pulled his groin sometime in the second inning. And according to Rotoworld, "might explain why his stuff looked so shaky throughout the night".

Of course, his second inning groin pull had to do with how poorly he pitched in the first inning. It was entirely owed to the fact that Giants hitters were hammering the ball all night!

I'm sorry, maybe I'm beginning to sound like a Doc hater, but this is going too far! The guy is a fantastic pitcher who has had a memorable season and is probably destined for the hall of fame. It's tough to say negative things about him.

However, this wasn't a gutsy performance. What we saw was a pitcher who simply didn't have his best stuff that happened to pull his groin after 30 or so pitches.

Pitches...Pitcher...Throwing pitches. Wait, this gives me an idea...

Tom Verducci has the "rule of 30", where he asserts a pitcher under the age of 25 that increases his workload by more then 30 is vulnerable to injury. Entering last night's ballgame, Halladay had tossed 266.1 innings during the 2010 season (including the All Star Game and Post Season). This falls just 3.2 innings short of eclipsing the magic 30. Maybe we have something here?

We also see that Halladay has thrown 150 more pitches during 2010 then he did during his career high season in 2003. 2004, the season after his previous career high, also resulted in Halladay missing a significant amount of time.

I'm not saying this is an open and shut case, but could throwing a career high in innings and pitches result in Halladay running out of gas? If he were 25, almost everyone would be convinced this is true, so why not for a 33 year old? A 33 year old who year after year has been among the league leaders in pitches thrown and innings pitched.

Baseball Prospectus has a stat called "Pitcher Abuse Points". It hasn't been used to link many injuries recently, and I'll be the first to admit the premise isn't iron-clad. In fact, this stat was created over a decade ago and not much work has been done to further it. Even BP's ex-injury expert Will Carrol wasn't found utilizing this stat.

In any event, PAP is created using the following formula, as per BP,

These points are cumulative: a 115-pitch outing gets you 20 PAP's - 1 for each pitch from 101-110 (10 total), and 2 for each pitch from 111-115 (10 total). A 120-pitch outing is worth 30 PAP's, while a 140-pitch outing is worth 100 PAP's - more than 3 times as much. This seems fair; a pitcher doesn't get tired all at once, but fatigue sets on gradually, and with each pitch the danger of continuing to pitch grows.

Further, BP breaks the pitch tallies into a chart as follows:

Pitcher Abuse Points
Situation	PAP/Pitch
Pitches 1-100	0
Pitches 101-110	1
Pitches 111-120	2
Pitches 121-130	3
Pitches 131-140	4
Pitches 141-150	5
Pitches 151+	6

This is all a lead up to stating that Roy Halladay has finished in the top 5 in PAP for the last five seasons, possibly pointing to a breakdown in the pitcher. Maybe pitching into October has caused the otherwise indestructible Halladay to fall apart?


I need to again state that this isn't me hating on Roy Halladay, two years ago I fought tooth and nail to convince the writers at Baseball Daily Digest to use some critical thinking in making their selections. What I am doing here is proposing the idea that Halladay's "gutting it out" was possibly due to him being worn down due to overuse, something he displayed in the first inning. His "gutting it out" was not due to pulling his groin in the second inning, as his performance did not tail off after that point - he was arguably a better pitcher after the second inning.

ALCS and NLCS

Well, I went four for four with my AL and NL division series picks. I was a little nervous about picking the Rangers over the Rays and the Giants over the Braves, but in the end, everything ended how I expected.

On my twitter account (@TheOLIB) I tweeted that I expected the Giants to take the World Series entering the first day of the post season. I made this decision based on the pitching of the Giants and while Roy Halladay is getting all the press after his no-hitter, with people going as far as ranking him among the best right handers of all time (something I disagree with and will write about at a later date) I still feel as though the Giants 1-2-3 of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez are superior to the Phils 1-2-3, not to mention I prefer the Giants bullpen.

Where the Phillies have some fortune is going up against a lot of right handed pitchers, only four of the Giants active pitchers pitch from the wrong side with essentially nothing in the end game. That being said, I would anticipate seeing a lot of Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez during this series and a little less Santiago "what's my name" Casilla - even though Casilla has looked incredible this season.

I still have the Giants taking this series in what should go the distance. Hopefully this series has Lincecum winning a couple of games head-to-head against Halladay which will remind people that while Doc has been a phenomenal pitcher for his career, his timing is what truly makes his career stand out (pre-Schilling, post-Hernandez/Lincecum dominance).

Over in the American League I'm going with the Yankees taking the Rangers. I'm taking this one based on strategy, not so much the strategy of having Cliff Lee heading to the bump for game three, but for sending CJ Wilson out there for game one. I would have conceded game one and wend for back to back W's without CC Sabathia on the hill. That is, Wilson is essentially going to have to outpitch Sabathia to win game one, not an easy task facing any group of hitters, but against the Yanks, that much more difficult.

Additionally, this is a possible seven game series where a shaky bullpen is that much more vulnerable, especially against experienced hitters that are solid at putting the ball in play. With all the Yankees hitters up to full speed, it's doubtful the Rangers will have an easy inning towards the end of the game. That said, I see this one ending in five, maybe six with experts blaming it on Washington for the wrong reason (Lee) rather then the rotation configuration as a whole.


So again, Yankees over the Rangers in the ALCS and Giants over the Phillies in the NLCS with the Giants taking home the World Series.

All About the Playoffs

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs keeps the playoff story alive in proposing yet another idea for "improving" baseball down the stretch. Honestly, it's not a terrible idea, although I'm not sure it will solve any current "problems" while not annoying certain fan bases.

To me, the bigger issue is that we are rewarding teams for winning their division under any circumstance. Take the Texas Rangers, for example. Here's a team that if divisional winners weren't given the golden ticket (a mistake in my opinion) would have JUST made it into the playoffs. They finished one game above the Red Sox and two ahead of the ChiSox, two teams that were eliminated with more then a week left.

One has to wonder what kind of "extra effort" those teams put in if they knew it was about win #90 (a foreseeable goal with the Red Sox needing 15 and the Chi Sox needing 17 as of September 1st) instead of win #95 (based on the Yankees and Rays pace as of September 1st).

Likewise, authors have made a stink about a lack of drama in the American League East, but what about the lack of drama in the American League West?

Sadly the 2010 season didn't offer a lot of last week entertainment. Most teams were more concerned about setting up their rotations for the playoffs and wondering where they would play their first round of golf rather then digging deep and making a run of things. But keep in mind that the 2009 season had a division winner crowned on day #163.

Wait, let's look at 2009 again...

Wow, if teams weren't put into the playoffs based on geographical boundaries, we could have has a VERY exciting end to the season. While the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox were all locks to make the playoffs and had things all but wrapped up a week in advanced, look at all the teams that come into contention if they are shooting for the 86 wins that both the Tigers and Twins settled in with.

We'd have the Rays, who finished with 84 and had the two best teams in the American League in their division (can't blame a team for packing that in). We'd also have the Rangers, who with 87 wins would have been the class of the final playoff spot, possibly providing a little more oomph with leading a race rather then trailing by 10 games. And we'd also have the Mariners, who with 85 wins might have had a shot.

2009 offered a little bit of drama with the Tigers and Twins fighting it out and needing an extra game, but imagine if those imaginary geographic lines didn't exist? There would have been 5 teams fighting the last days of the season for one playoff spot.

Maybe 2009 was a special case, how about 2008? Same thing, the American League Central went down to game #163 while two nearly equal teams, the Yankees and Jays were out with plenty of time left in the season.

What about 2007? Not too much excitement. Although having 88 wins and chasing two 94 win teams has got to look a lot nicer then chasing a single 94 and another with 96 as the Mariners and Tigers had to do respectively.

Then there is 2006, where a 90 win team didn't make the playoffs, while in the National League, an 83 win team made the playoffs with an 85 win team dusting off their fairway woods.


All of this is to say that the wild card isn't the issue. The wild card is predominantly rewarding one of the top teams in the league for being a top team. Is it taking some drama out? Certainly! But think how ridiculous the old system was where a team like the 2009 Red Sox, the team with the third most wins in the American League, would have been sitting at home.

The system, as is, works. It's not perfect, but it works. I would get rid of the geographical lines altogether, as it isn't as if the players are riding buses or non-chartered airplanes.

Expanding MLB's Playoff Format

Mmm, I don't like it.

Next!

Here's the basis; Tom Verducci at SI.com writes an article suggesting a way to improve Major League Baseball's playoff format and add some revenue. He has an excellent point that recent "win or go home" games have drawn outstanding viewership and the lack of these nail biters have hurt baseball. Although the former has evidence only in that the National Football League is a behemoth and Major League Baseball is simply puttering along. I'm not sure if Verducci follows the National Hockey League or not, but the Stanley Cup has went the distance in 4 of the last 7 seasons, yet the NHL isn't doing all that hot. In fact, the NHL Finals have gained little (if any) ground on the NBA Finals despite being drastically more dramatic (the NBA Finals have went 7 games only four times since 1988).

Verducci states that teams are content simply making the playoffs in Major League Baseball. Whether factual or not, this is not really a big deal in my opinion given the home field advantages (albeit small) provided to teams. While Verducci points out that the Rays may sit their staff ace in a potential division winning game at the end of the season, it's tough to blame the Rays for wanting David Price available to pitch at least twice in the first round of the playoffs. Further, with injuries being a part of any sport, it's smarter to keep your best pitcher available for the playoffs, rather then risk him getting hurt for home field advantage.

Verducci suggests an idea which I totally disagree with. He suggests that MLB open up two wild card spots instead of the current set up of one (per league). He sets up a situation where the two wild card teams play a play-in game, where the winner goes onto the playoffs and the loser goes home. What this would do is create more meaningful games as teams further down the pecking order would still have a shot at the playoffs. To me, there isn't anything really wrong with this basis and it's tough to argue against making baseball more competitive in September. But that's it.

Verducci writes, "I have a hard time thinking of a down side to this system." His rationale for said statement is, "It rewards division winners and penalizes second-place teams."

Okay, that is fair, and Verducci brings up an example of the 2005 Houston Astros who were far out of contention as early as May 7th.

But here is where I disagree. We are giving lesser teams a ridiculous breath of air. Anything can happen in a single game and while this game may have encouraged a few better games on the last day of the season, we could conceivably hurt the playoffs by allowing - for example - the Boston Red Sox (leaving history out of the picture) into the playoffs.

That is, the Yankees and Rays are the two best teams in baseball, by a fairly significant margin. I'm sure the Rays would prefer to win the division, but they certainly aren't going to kill themselves to get in. They are currently 7 games ahead of the Sox and a vastly superior team (owning a +123 run differential to the Sox +68).

Verducci is then suggesting that we potentially kick the second best team in all of baseball (inexcusable) out of the playoffs for a good, not great team in the Sox.

Worse yet, while this system would give the Rays something to play for if they were tied with the Yankees on the final day of the season, what does this do to the 5th ranked team? A team like the current White Sox who are out of the playoffs but if the season were to end today, would have nothing to play for on the last day - win and they are in, lose and they are in (the wildcard playoff that is).

In fact, I would argue that the Rays would be likely to sit Price on the last day of the season anyways, as they would want him for the more meaningful game against the ChiSox. That is, on the last day of the season, if tied with the Yanks, their destiny isn't even in their own hands. Whereas against the ChiSox, it would be.


Verducci isn't wrong to ask the question of how we can improve the playoff format and the last week of the season. He is wrong, however, to suggest a one game playoff. Using the NFL as a barometer in this scenario is not appropriate as the sport is vastly different. The NFL, for example, never uses a "best of" playoff format.

This then leads to the question of how MLB can improve the playoffs and the end of the season. One area I have always been a proponent of is not allowing any division winners into the playoffs based solely on their standings in the division. Some years this may be unfair as one division may be particularly strong, but even in that scenario, if we go by Verducci's logic, "just win" and you have nothing to complain about.

For example, this season the American League would be represented by the Yanks, the Rays, the Twins, and the ChiSox, the four best teams in the league. This would satisfy Verducci's desire for more meaningful and competitive games. It would make more teams eligible down the stretch as we would have a team like the Jays sitting 6 games out of the playoffs instead of 12. That would give us 4 teams fighting to make the American League bracket instead of 1.

In the National League, things get even better, where we have three exciting races, but only involving two teams. My suggested playoff format would invite an additional two teams into the playoff picture.


How would you change Major League Baseball's playoff format without watering down the competition? Keep in mind, making more teams eligible, while adding the excitement of March Madness, doesn't always add excitement to the final and could potentially water it down.

That is, while the wildcard has been a good addition, remember the throttling the ChiSox gave the 'Stros in the 2005 World Series.


I personally like the way things are, I would just like to see an additional bonus for the best team in the league. For example, in Japan, the best team only has to win 3 games to win the series whereas the underdog has to win 4. In Korea, the league winner sits out the first two rounds of the playoffs.


Verducci, you have some good intentions, but your comparisons aren't accurate. Baseball is not Football, and nothing is the NCAA Tournament. Don't waste your time trying to make baseball like those two events.

World Series Rain Delay

If you are watching, or were watching, you know by now that Game 5 of the World Series, the possible decisive game of the World Series, is being delayed due to rain. The commentators on FOX have been fairly rough on Major League Baseball's decision to keep playing this game, something I disagree with, although not entirely.

MLB knew what the weather was supposed to be like this evening. They knew they had a small window until about 10 PM. The rain ended up coming a little bit earlier, but even if it did begin at 10 PM, chances are they would have run into some substantial weather issues anyways. With the forecast calling for even worse weather tomorrow, tonight was clearly the best option, unless there is the option of shuffling games around in Tampa Bay-that is something I cannot even speculate on.

All that being said, it is interesting that MLB decided not to push the start time of the game up an hour or so. At least consider when the window of good weather is going to be and how to best utilize it. While the risk would have been that there was clear weather all evening, and many West Coast viewers would have been lost, I imagine anyone on the West Coast that is truly concerned about watching this game from first pitch to final out would have made arrangements for such an important game.

I was reading on a LiveBlog the comparison of this game to the NFLs Super Bowl in that they would never allow the weather to get the better of the Championship game-being that the league has a rule where Super Bowls will not be played in outdoor stadiums North of a certain point. Not only is this comparison simply laughable, but it isn't 100% accurate. Has everyone already forgotten the Super Bowl ALL the way back in 2007, where it poured for much of the game in South Beach?


But here we are, having played five and a half innings. The Rays tied the game up on a BJ Upton stolen base coupled with a nice piece of hitting by Carlos Pena to plate the run. This was definitely a timely hit for the Rays, as the recent news that the game is to be suspended and resumed sometime Tuesday or Wednesday.

Without Pena's single, the Rays would have lost as the game was considered as official due to having played more then four and a half innings. That easily would have been the worst, and most depressing situation, possibly in recent Major League history.

The weather clearly played a negative role in this game, as it is almost a certainty that Jimmy Rollins makes the play at first getting Upton out at first, eliminating the eventual tying run.


An interesting note, the Rays had planned on flying out of Philadelphia after tonight's game. Subsequently the club does not have a hotel room and it is being reported that the hotel the Rays were staying in has been filled. Furthering this dilema is the report that there are very few available hotel rooms in Philly-maybe they can walk a mile in Charlie's shoes?


The game is scheduled to resume at 8 PM EST tomorrow. Comically, the 'starters' for that game could include Chad Durbin-Tigers fans wish he was still in town.

"Come Join Us"

From Baseball Digest Daily,

Join Joe Hamrahi, Eric SanInoncencio, Bill Baer, Rob McQouwn, Michael Street, Brandon Heikoop and Brian Joseph in a live blog/chat tonight for Game 2 of the '08 World Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies.

The Live Blog kicks off roughly 45 minutes before first pitch at 7:45 PM. Be there for all the insights from the team and expect commentary and additional facts and stats to enhance your viewing experience (although it's doubtful anyone can hold a candle to Tim McCarver's wittiness).

Click here or on the link below to join the Live Blog. (Blog will appear in a pop-up window and start at 7:45 PM.)

BDD WS Game 2 Live Blog and Chat

I am still only tentatively scheduled to be a part of this although will be making my best effort to be there for the action. Brian has assured me that there will be ample of topics to discuss and debate. This is a trial thing for us at BDD and I certainly hope it works out, as this could be a fun and interactive way for myself, my colleagues, and baseball fans from all over to discuss the game we are all so fascinated with.

Hope to see each and everyone of you there.

Ray Pride Part XIV - World Series

Over at Baseball Digest Daily, myself and fellow BDD writers were asked to pick a World Series winner and give a brief explanation of our pick. Here's what I said,

I’ve got the Rays winning this series in four games. The American League is simply that much more superior and the best team from the AL’s best division will simply be too much for the Phillies to handle. According to Baseball Prospectus’ EQA and EQR the Rays had a superior run differential of +137 compared to the Phillies +68, a very substantial margin.

While many are expecting Hamels to get the Phillies off to a good start, I keep thinking back to how hard both Upton and Longoria hit Jon Lester in the ALCS. Additionally, the Phillies bullpen is simply bound to give up a lead-something they haven’t done to this point in the season.

Another issue, that I didn't point out in my brief blurb here, the Phillies layoff. Fellow BDD writer Brian Joseph takes an in depth look at the World Series although I believe he inaccurately compares the two clubs.

The first error is when Joseph claims that the Phillies benefited from taking care of the Dodgers in a rather quick fashion. While the club did take care of the Dodgers quickly, the length of that series wouldn't have really affected how the rotation shook out for the World Series.

That is, Hamels pitched the fifth and decisive game of the series on Wednesday. There is a chance that Hamels might have come out of the bullpen had the series went to seven games, however it would have been finished on Saturday, giving Hamels another 3 full days to recover. In other words, he was pitching game one of this series whether or not the series went the distance.

Thus, the rotation for the Phil's is presumably identical. However, the Rays have had an additional 3 days of rest then they would have had the series went the distance. This rest is nice, although not absolutely ideal. Hitters like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were just beginning to hit the ball again. If it is a timing thing, the additional layoff is going to be a negative for the clubs two most important hitters.

As for the Rays, a very raw and untested playoff team, nothing is more of a test then a game seven. Especially a game seven against the defending champs after a major let down in game five, coupled with a disappointing outing in game six. The Rays came out in game seven like veterans and played a very sound game. We also got to see David Price, whom had somewhat of a coming out party.


Another area I disagree with Brian is his comparison between two of the respective clubs starters. The first of which, he is not on his own, even MLB.com (image above) feels that Ryan Howard has the leg up on Carlos Pena. But why? Pena has far and away had the superior post season, he is the superior fielder. So why Howard over Pena?

I responded to Brian's column already, and I'll simply copy what I wrote earlier,

Howard over Pena.

While you did not entirely disregard the regular season, even that should not be evidence to giving Howard the leg up on Pena. Check out Howard and Pena’s neutralized statistics. Over the last two season’s, Pena has posted a .345 and .306 EQA. Over that same period, Ryan Howard’s is .311 and .289. Even Howard’s unsustainable career year is a shade below what Pena did in 2007.

Both are lefty bats and both will have the same park effects entering this series. Pena is also an incredibly slick fielder and that should certainly be considered.

What I was trying to say here is that if Pena had been in Howard's position the last two seasons, he would have posted substantially superior statistical seasons. In fact, even in Howard's career year, his translated power numbers are significantly higher. Pena's nuetralized Isolated Power in 2007 was .437 compared to Howard's career high in 2006 of .348. Some hitters are fortunate to have an ISO of .100, meanwhile Pena has nearly a 100 point advantage over the hitter whom most would consider a superior power hitter.

The next issue I had was with Victorino over Upton. While Victorino has certainly been a catalyst for the Phillies playoff run, and he had a very nice season, Upton has had both a superior post season and regular season. Here's what I wrote in response to Brian,

I’d say, without a shadow of a doubt, Upton is a fairly superior hitter then Victorino is. I would also like to further investigate the defensive +/- but that can be saved for another time. Similar to Pena v. Howard, Upton is a substantially superior hitter. His EQA this season was 13 points higher then Victorino’s. Consider if we hacked 13 points off of Victorino’s EQA and we’d be sitting at .265 and hardly a feared bat in the lineup. That same 13 point advantage which makes Victorino a nice hitter compared to a weak one can be noted when comparing Victorino as a ‘nice’ hitter to Upton a ’solid’-'great’ one.

Brian makes a decent argument for Victorino's fielding as he has been one of the best center fielders in the Majors this season. I simply don't see it of enough of an advantage over a 4-7 game series to make up for the hitting.

Lastly, I entirely disagree with Brian's claim that Blanton has a leg up over Sonnanstine. I don't get into as much detail here, stating,

While split stats are not often the most reliable measure, due to their poor sample sizes, it must be accounted for that the Rays (and Devil Rays) have absolutely smoked Blanton over his career. 57 hits in 41.2 innings. A home run per 9. Not even a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Admittedly, this isn't the absolutely best argument. The first issue, as Brian points out, we are dealing with a team from as early as 2005-of which is fairly different from the Rays current roster. Another issue is the sample size. A lot can happen over a 40 inning stretch. A pitcher can simply go on a stretch where nothing goes their way.

That aside, Sonnanstine had a significantly superior season in 2008 having an FIP .61 lower then Blanton's.

I also feel as though Blanton's spot in the rotation is a mistake. Being that he is a relative soft-tosser, Blanton won't be able to take advantage of the projected cool temperatures in the same way that Brett Myers would be able to. Speaking of Myers, isn't he rather hot-headed? Why would the Phillies want him pitching a road game in one of the loudest (and annoying) ballparks in baseball? How do you think Myers reacts to a bad call and the cowbells (see below):



So there we have it, my World Series preview and prediction. Rays in 4.

RAY PRIDE!

Ray Pride Part XIII - Home Field?

Just a quick thing for everyone to watch out for during the World Series. The Phillies have not played a single game on FieldTurf this season. It will be interesting to not only see how long it takes the infielders to adjust to this surface, but what kind of affect it has on the outfielders. Given that the warning track is not the usual dirt/clay combination seen with traditional grassy ballparks.

Having regularly watched Blue Jays games, I have been able to witness how a groundball has often times zoomed through the infield in what would have ordinarily been a routine out. This, predominantly against American League teams that have to play at least 9 games on FieldTurf annually.

In 2008, there were only two teams that didn't play their home games on FieldTurf that had a record of .500 or better. The Rays already were one of the best teams at home (possibly due to FieldTurf) and this could further their advantage over the Phillies.

Let's try and keep track of how the surface comes into play, specifically during game one.

Ray Pride Part XII - The World Series is Set

Absolutely unbelievable! A little mouse from the Tampa Bay area took out what some had come to tab as a dynasty. The Rays took care of the Red Sox in the seventh game of the American League Championship Series, one in which no one will be soon to forget. This was a total team effort, with impressive performances from unheralded players as well as 'Here I am' performances from soon-to-be stars.

The World Series is set, with Game One in Tampa Bay at 8 PM EST, on everyone's favorite baseball broadcasting network, FOX. It is, however, fortunate that we won't have to deal with TBS any longer.

The rest of the schedule looks as follows:

Series begins Wednesday
Game	Matchup	Day	Date	Time ET	TV
Gm 1	PHI @ TB	Wed	Oct. 22	8:00 PM	FOX
Gm 2	PHI @ TB	Thu	Oct. 23	8:00 PM	FOX
Gm 3	TB @ PHI	Sat	Oct. 25	8:00 PM	FOX
Gm 4	TB @ PHI	Sun	Oct. 26	8:00 PM	FOX
Gm 5*	TB @ PHI	Mon	Oct. 27	8:00 PM	FOX
Gm 6*	PHI @ TB	Wed	Oct. 29	8:00 PM	FOX
Gm 7*	PHI @ TB	Thu	Oct. 30	8:00 PM	FOX

I will break down my prediction later, for now, I will leave you with a clip from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. In this 'debate', the Rays are represented by 'a little mouse' and the Phillies are represented by a 'scorpion'. Personally, I prefer Frank's perspective that a mouse could kill a scorpion...

Ray Pride Part XI - And Then There Were Two (Part 1?)

Apparently the Rays had gotten cocky. Apparently claiming that beating the Red Sox in the regular season was not enough reason for this team to celebrate for the first time in franchise history. Well, entering the bottom of the 7th with a 7-0 lead should be enough for the Rays to officially have 'taken down' Red Sox Nation. To add insult to injury, the Rays are taking care of business on the hallowed grounds of Fen Way Park-where fans are rushing to the T Train!

The game is 99% in the books according to FanGraphs, sorry, 98% with Jed Lowrie's lead-off double. Although FanGraphs does not take into account how terrible Jason Varitek is. Not only is the measely 2% chance of victory quite uninspiring, so too is the fact that from 1977 to 2006 only 1 out of 220 home teams have come back from a 7 run deficit with a runner on second, and no outs in the bottom of the 7th.

While the Sox made a historic come back quite recently, they have simply been overmatched this series and are clearly the inferior team. In fact, Sox fans began jumping ship as early as 9:38 PM EST at Over The Monster.


In other words, this series is done, the Rays are the ALCS winners and with home field advantage, absolutely have to be the favorites entering the World Series. Apparently the Rays are better then even I had anticipated.

Update - 11:11 PM EST - 16/10/2008

Apparently someone in Boston made one of those '11:11' wishes. This certainly is a shift in the momentum, but it is still too little, too late. In fact, according to FanGraphs, the difference Sox are still only have an 8% chance at winning. Historically, the Sox are now in a much better crowd then they were without the runs. However, only 7% of teams down by 3, with 2 outs in the bottom of the 7th have come back to win the game.

Update - 11:29 PM EST

Through 2 innings of work, Jonathan Papelbon has thrown 38 pitches, while not being specifically efficient. He has, however, gotten the job done and taken care of the Rays for two innings. I would put the odds at Papelbon returning for the 9th at slim to none, and with Okajima and Delcarmen already having been used, the Sox have to take the lead entering the 9th inning.

Update - 11:33 PM EST

Seriously?!?

JD Drew just hammered a ball out of the park! We officially have a ballgame!

There are two legitimately positive outcomes of the game getting close:

1. The fans who left and are unable to celebrate this possibly historic evening, and
2. The fans who are going bezurk in the stands that may feel the devastating punch in the jaw of defeat when (if) the Sox lose.

Oh, this just in, TBS announcers proclaimed that Dan Wheeler was 'rattled' after the Drew home run. The evidence, Wheeler threw his first post-homerun pitch out of the strike zone. Great analysis!

Does everyone remember when Tony Kornheiser was 'forced' to apologize for his borderline racial slur on Monday Night Football? How come commentators aren't 'forced' to apologize when they make an uneducated proclamation?

Update - 11:47 PM EST

Tie ballgame!

Wow...I guess it really is never over at Fenway Park.

Update - 11:54 PM EST

The long 8th inning combined with 38 pitches over 2 innings forced Terry Francona to take Papelbon out of the game in favor of rookie Justin Masterson. Bartlett took the 4th pitch he saw and hit a single. The Sox bullpen has nothing left, although every arm is presumed to be available.

If you're not watching, I imagine you aren't reading this...

Update - 12:13 AM EST - 17/10/2008

With the Rays up 7 runs entering the bottom of the 7th, I imagine the clubhouse was being covered for champagne celebrations and ALCS apparel. Are they tearing everything down now? Did they when the Sox tied it up? How devastating would it be to walk into the clubhouse with all of that in it?

Update - 12:16 AM EST

Wow!

The Rays made history!

Apparently the Sox won't go down without a fight. Apparently I was wrong, the game wasn't over! Good on the Sox, way to make it a series!

Ray Pride Part X - Taking 2 of 3 The 'Hard' Way

Tonight, I'm not going to take a stab at the TBS crew who took care of the Rays-Sox game. I'm not going to go over the highlights of the ballgame, nor am I going to discuss how I envision the remainder of the American League Championship Series capping off. Rather, what I am going to do is remind everyone of the nice showing of Rays fans at Fenway and the 'Fenway Faithful'-those who bailed before the game was over-have they not seen Fever Pitch?

Actually, scratch that...

"Nobody on the Rays in thinking that this series is over"

Obviously. It is 2 to 1 and they just regained home field advantage, which hasn't been so advantageous. While the Rays were certainly thrilled to be winning the game, and had the ever important 'shift in momentum', the club still had to win 2 of the remaining 4 games.

And an old/terrible baseball quote,

"The Red Sox are down to their final strike..."

What exactly does this ever mean? Interestingly, the moment after the commentator made this comment, Mark Kotsay fouled a ball off. In other words, he had committed a strike-but apparently not the final one.

But what if the Sox would have gotten aboard? Would they have had only ONE strike to work with? If that's the case, Edwin Jackson should have allowed the hitter to get on base and simply dust the edges until he grabbed a strike, thus, ending the ballgame.

"Bill [James] points out that people like simple explanations, and LOVE simple explanations that are actually partially true."

Really? You Too TBS?

"One of the toughest things is to find a left handed pitcher who can get left handed hitters out."
-TBS Broadcaster

I'm actually going to leave this one alone-for now. What really stuck out, the continual affirmation that Hideki Okajima is a 'situational lefty'. You know, those tough to find, rare left handed pitchers that can get left handed hitters out. Those one's.

This doesn't even take a lot of research. By simply looking at the pitcher's seasons stats, the broadcaster could have ASSUMED that Okajima was not a situational lefty. Instead, because of Okajima's funky delivery (well, strange and uncomfortable looking head jerk), he must only be able to get lefties out.

"Well that's just not right"
-Deandre, It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia

Check out the following lefty/righty graphs, courtesy Fangraphs.com:
While Okajima is not as stellar against righties as he is against lefties, he is still classified as having a 'good' ERA. Interestingly, he is trending towards becoming a situational lefty, so maybe the commentators are hinting at something?

Okajima's strikeout per nine differs, yes, but not to the degree of a 'situational lefty'. Brian Shouse, is a much better example of a 'situational lefty'. Check out these deviating graphs:
Do you see that? Shouse is actually a TERRIBLE pitcher against righties. As a manager, you are making a mistake in allowing him to face anything more then a right handed pitcher. However, against lefties, he is downright spectacular, and has been for his entire career.

Interestingly, this journeyman, making $2M. A fairly low salary for a reliever with an ERA under 3.00. That is, consider how much Eric Gagne is making.


However, I don't expect a commentator to do all of that homework. That they called Okajima a 'situational lefty' is evidence enough that they aren't 100% familiar with the term (the specific name is LOOGY-Lefty One Out Guy, aka a 'situation'). That aside, had the commentator simply looked at Okajima's season stats, it would have become clear that he is not a LOOGY.

That is, Okajima logged 62 innings over 64 appearances. In other words, he essentially logged an inning per outing. How many teams toss three straight lefties at you? Shouse on the other hand, 51 1/3 innings spread over 69 outings.

Let's take this one step further though. If Okajima was a LOOGY pitcher, wouldn't he have a lot of quick outings? By simply showing the innings and apperances, I am ignoring any serious mop-up duty that he may have done during the 2008 season.

Thus, let's see how many inning plus outings Okajima had this season...45. In 64 appearances. The majority then, of Okajima's came while facing at least 3 batters. 70% to be exact.

Let's now look at Brian Shouse. 27 of Shouse's 69 outings saw him face at least 3 batters, extending an inning or more. A rate of 39%.

I thought we were supposed to get baseball's A squad for the playoffs? At this rate, I'd almost prefer Joe Morgan!

Ray Pride Part IX - Okay...

I didn't pick'em, but that doesn't mean I don't want the Rays to win. The problem is, I'm just not sure the Rays can do it. I worry they may be overly emotional. I worry that the Trop-which is seeming like a home field thus far-won't be a home field for the entire series (Sox fans are CRAZY!).

Here's what I wrote when selecting the Sox to win this series (keep in mind, I was cringing while writing it),

Red Sox over Rays in 5. The Red Sox ought to be able to steal a game at the Trop from Tampa. My heart still wants to pick the Rays, but I simply cannot go against the Sox again.

Like I said, my heart is still with the Rays, but the Sox have been taking me to the cleaners all year.

GO RAYS!

Well That Just Doesn't Make Sense

"You would rather challenge Manny [Ramirez] then walk him."
- FOX Broadcaster

Really? So according to the broadcaster, the Phillies Brad Lidge was better off getting a get em over fastball to baseball's best and hottest playoff hitter, then going around him and putting him on base? The broadcaster continued to urge that letting Manny on base was the last thing Lidge wanted to do.

While researching exactly how wrong this commentator was, I fell into an excellent website called Win Expectancy(.walkoutbalk.com). This website allows you to input inning by inning, out by out, situation by situation and calculate what the odds are that a team won. I choose to use the basic tool, which runs from the sample size of 1977 to 2006. Clearly this day and age things are slightly different, but the facts remain fairly constant.

Thus, I entered the following information:

• With the visiting (the Dodgers) team down by three runs, the odds of winning was about 2%;


• Had Manny instead been walked to start the inning, the odds jumped all the way up to 4.6%;


• However, had Manny instead hit a home run, the odds would have crept all the way up to 5.5%.

In other words, walking the leadoff man in this situation is a far better idea then what the commentator was suggesting, to challenge Manny. The same Manny who had already hit a homerun, one that was referred to as a 'jam shot'.

Keep in mind, the odds of Manny hitting a home run does not sit at 100%, however there is still no real reason for Lidge to give in. Let him get on base and allow the rest of the hitters to beat you.

That is, consider that even giving Manny first base means that he needs to go from first to home to score the same run he could have gotten from one swing of the bat. One bad pitch, or in Manny's case, a great pitch that he 'jammed' in the cozy confines of Citizen's Bank Park.

In other words, FOX Broadcaster, walking Manny was about as smart of an idea as there is. And judging from the 4 straight balls Manny saw, this was the idea Philadelphia had the second the dread-locked monster stepped to the plate.

Ray Pride Part VIII - Divisional Series Champs

The Rays have punched their card to the 2008 American League Championship series, taking care of the White Sox in 4 games. The Rays won this series in convincing fashion putting up 6 runs in each of their 3 victories. In total, the Rays scored an average of 5.25 runs per game while allowing 3.25.

The Rays bullpen was especially sharp, going 11 2/3 innings allowing only a single run. This run was especially dominant as the Rays bullpen allowed only 6 hits, and 2 walks while striking out 13.

It is also important to note that the Rays continued their slick fielding. Despite being an extremely youth club, they made zero errors while registering 3 double plays.

In addition to outstanding bullpen support, the Rays had individual heroes for each game. In the first game, Evan Longoria took care of business slugging two home runs driving in 3 of the Rays 6 runs.

The second game saw Akinori Iwamura take over as the teams star. His timely two run home run gave the Rays the lead in the 5th inning and the club never looked back.

Despite a loss in the third game of the series, Tampa Bay could feel confident sleeping in their hotel rooms. BJ Upton, who was 1 for 9 with 3 strikeouts and zero walks through the first two games began to come alive. Despite Upton striking out twice in 5 at bats, he launched the first post season home run of what should be a very impressive career. Upton's home run in the 7th inning of game 3 set the tone for the Rays enter game 4 of the series.

BJ took the torch, and sprinted with it. The Rays got off to an early lead due to Upton's home run in both the first and third innings. While Carlos Pena certainly did his part, it was Upton's lead which had the Rays take control of the deciding game in Chicago.

In addition to this, starter Andy Sonnanstine gave the Rays more then they could have asked for. His 5 2/3 innings of work kept the White Sox off balanced and unable to string together a serious rally.

Looking further, we can see that the Rays were far and away the more dominant team. Despite the White Sox reputation of being long ball hitters, the Rays smacked an additional 2 home runs in the series (and 7 additional extra base hits). The Rays were also a slightly more patient team, despite having a roster of predominantly first timers to the post season.

RAY PRIDE!

Ray Pride VII - On is ON

So the T BAY RAYS are now up two games to nothing. They took care of business when I least expected...In other words, I am officially a blogger! I am doing the equivalent of a drunk dial. I am taking a loss without the victory, SNOW FLAKE TURNS TO BLIZARD!

GO RAYS!

Ray Pride VI - October Edition

You "didn't listen!" - Randy Marsh (South Park, Season 9, Episode 8)

At the end of March, I called the Tampa Bay Rays my American League East division winners in my 'Division by Division Preview'. At this time, I was alone in this thinking. People could see my argument, but they wouldn't buy it.

It took until close to the midway point in the 2008 season before people finally starting to cling onto the idea that the Rays could in fact, compete for the playoffs. However, despite being one of the top three teams in baseball, and leading the American League East, there was a still a feeling that it wouldn't be this year.

Clearly, I disagreed. The Rays had become my adopted team. The Indians were failing and the Bisons were difficult to watch. I felt justified in rooting for the Rays, not only because of my preseason prediction, but also because of my despise towards the Red Sox.

At the All Star Break the Rays were sitting half a game out of first place. It was at this point, where the non-believers stepped forward and proudly said, 'I told you so'. Experts were talking about the feel goodedness of the Rays 2008 season and had claimed them as a team to watch in 2009.

But it was too late, someone had already stepped up to the plate and claimed the Rays as the team to watch. The Rays were my darling of 2008, the team had 'progressed' toward the mean and with a few minor additions were an entirely different team. I wasn't willing to give up on the 2008 Rays, and felt that you shouldn't either.

With July completed the Rays had squashed their half game deficit and built up a 3 game lead over the Red Sox in the division. It appeared as though the difficult first half of games was going to benefit the Rays entering August and September.

Despite a slew of major injuries, the Rays fought hard and held onto the division lead. The 2008 Rays had, as I predicted, won the American League East division title, finishing with baseball's third best record. The Rays finished the season with Major League Baseball best home record, which despite the clamor for more fans in the stands, clearly was not necessary.


The playoffs are upon us. The Rays are facing off against a veteran laden team in Chicago. A team that relies more then any other team on scoring runs via the long ball. I picked the Rays to win this series in five games, not because I think the White Sox match up favorably against the Rays, but because I anticipate a melt down by Rays ace, Scott Kazmir (there is, afterall, a reason he is pitching in Game 2 instead of Game 1).

Over at Baseball Digest Daily, the Rays are the only unanimous choice to win their series. In fact, most of the authors believe there series will take the minimum amount of games.

"I started a joke, that started the whole world laughing. If only I'd seen, that the joke was on me"
-James William Hindle, 2001

GO RAYS!

Divisional Series Predictions

Over at Baseball Digest Daily, each of the writers chimed in with their Divisional Series predictions, check out their comments here, and their predictions below:


As you can see, Timm Davis is the only other author who knows what he is talking about. Here's how I break down the Divisional Series'.

American League

Tampa Bay Rays versus the Chicago White Sox:

If Scott Kazmir had shown a little more composure this season, I would call this a sweep. However, I see him taking away the Rays home field advantage by letting his emotions get to him in game two. It was, in my opinion, a great idea for Madden to give Shields the ball for the first game. I just hope that MLB's agreement with Stub Hub doesn't ruin the Rays home field advantage.

The White Sox are a veteran team and have been here before. It is difficult to find a weak link in their lineup and this team will be running off adrenaline this series. That said, this club does not have extraordinarily reliable pitching and is somewhat weak defensively. Those are the keys to winning in October, not home runs.

Tampa Bay takes the series in five games.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim versus the Boston Red Sox:

This year, the Angels and Red Sox are in opposite positions. In 2007, the Sox had home field advantage, while the Angels were playing with a bunch of wounded soldiers. This year, the Angels, with the additions of Mark Teixeira and Torri Hunter, have a healthy lineup and are ready to make a run. Whereas the Sox have lost the home field advantage that Fenway adds, are fairly dinged up, not knowing who will be healthy and how effective they will be, and are missing one of the greatest playoff hitters of all time, Manny Ramirez.

I am taking the Angels to win two close ones in Anaheim and for Josh Beckett to not be his typical playoff savior. Angels in three.

National League

Chicago Cubs versus the Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Cubs have been the class of the National League and have one of baseball's top home records. This is as complete of a team as there is in baseball. The team and its fans expect them to win, this is finally their year...Or is it?

The Dodgers have turned things around with the arrival of Manny and are firing on all cylinders. While the club is largely inexperienced, Casey Blake's beard, coupled with Joe Torre's managerial skills are what sets this club a part.

The Dodgers need to steal one early in Chicago and hold home field advantage in Hollywood. I'm taking the Dodgers to win in three.

Philadelphia Phillies versus the Milwaukee Brewers:

With the Brewers riding high the Phillies certainly have to worry about letting one slip away. While the Phil's bullpen has been unbeatable this year, the odds are they let one slip away on the big stage that October presents.

Despite CC Sabathia's wishes, he will not be starting every game of this series. He will take the mound for game 2 and presumably for game 5. If the Brewers can hit enough to win one of the other three games, they are in. I'm pinning that victory in game 4, at home, with Yovanni Gallardo saving the day pitching in relief.

Brewers take the series in five.


There you have it, my Division Series picks.

Enjoy!

'Closing' Day - Part 2?

I can't think of another season, another league, another sport, where the playoff picture is not completed after the final day of the regular season. At some point today the White Sox and Tigers will take the field to make up a game that was scheduled for earlier this month. If the White Sox are victorious they will square off against the Twins in a one game playoff in Chicago Tuesday afternoon.

It amazes me that after a 162 game season playoff pictures still do not become fully understood until the last days of the season. One would think that after all of those independent trials, the best teams would separate from the rest of the pack. People claim that big market teams like the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers all have an unfair advantage, that a salary cap would create a form of competitive balance that isn't already present.

While it is true, as I mentioned, that there are teams that are out of contention prior to Opening Day, there are others that can kiss the playoffs goodbye before the summer arrives. However, what chaos would ensure if all 30 teams were in the hunt until the last weeks of the season? The trade deadline, which is one of the most interesting times in baseball, would be all but obsolete.


With that said, I will give a sneak peek into my post-season awards, and introduce "TheOLIBy's".

The 2008 season was definitely an interesting one for the American League. The top performers were predominantly from underachieving teams, and just when a player would begin to pull away, another would string together an equally as impressive stretch. However, following the same rule of thumb from last year, the requirements for winning an award are league-wide value.

That is, the Baseball Writers of America (BBWA) will dock a player based on his teams results. I believe this to be a false set of rules and one which is not entirely justified. True, if we are talking about two players with nearly identical seasons, it is fair to look at his teams performance, however to what extent? Consider the American League this season, where Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore have been the two top performers according to Baseball Prospectus' VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). In fact, of the top 10 performers in the American League, only four come from playoff teams.

Thus, consider the value those players had to their respective clubs in asking yourself, would the Red Sox have been hurt more by the loss of Dustin Pedroia then the Yankees would have the loss Alex Rodriguez? While the Sox may have dropped a handful of victories with his absence, chances are the team was still good enough to make the playoffs. Whereas the Yankees still had a shot as early as September 1st, despite missing ARod for nearly a month.

As I mentioned during last season's American League Award Show,

When selecting who will win the awards, I take into account several factors. The first, is how a player performs in respect to their position. For the record, I am not going to pick a player who performed at a high level at a brutal position, but wasn't even in the top 5 or 10 in 'win' stats.

The second criteria is 'Win' stats? The Hardball Times owns a stat for this, as does Baseball Prospectus; called Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB) and Value over Replacement Player (VORP) respectively. I will reference these stats in and out of my writings, for the most part, utilizing both.

Next, I will look at exceptional play of a player. A streak, a record, or really something they did on an individual level to lift the team to higher levels. That is not to say a player from a losing team can not win an award, although admittedly, those players are at a slight disadvantage.

Lastly, I do take into account salary and the players surrounding-something you will notice with my AL Cy Young award.

Salary is one component of last years requirements which I will more or less neglect. While Rodriguez is making enough to solve the debt crisis in North America, it is not his fault that a team was willing to dish out that sort of cash.

The American League MVP race will come down to Alex Rodriguez, Dustin Pedroia, and Josh Hamilton. Each of these players had exceptional seasons, with Pedroia and Hamilton being major surprises throughout the league. Two players certainly deserving of acknowledgment, and who may make a last minute push once I fully evaluate the numbers are Joe Mauer and Milton Bradley.

The Cy Young race has been one of the most interesting ones the American League has recently seen. The two top candidates are Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, two deserving candidates each of whom had outstanding seasons on mediocre teams. Jon Lester, Ervin Santana, and John Danks will all receive consideration, but will seemingly fall short of Lee and Halladay.

Last year, I set forth the following additional requirement for the Cy Young winner,

[T]he Cy Young award is not simply awarded to the pitcher who had the best statistics, rather, it is awarded to the pitcher who was not only most valuable to his team, but would have been to any other team.

One of the reasons I decide that is because pitching statistics are often misleading. A pitchers ballpark can have a great influence on a pitcher, not only whether a park is a 'hitters' park or a 'pitchers' park, but whether the park is friendly to ground ball pitchers. A club's defense can let a starter down enough to negatively affect his statistics, despite having a better pitched season.

Entering May, the American ROY picture appeared to be an open and shut case. Jacoby Ellsbury was playing like a seasoned veteran, while Evan Longoria and Alexei Ramirez were struggling to adapt to Major League Baseball. At that point, Mike Aviles was still an unknown player bound to be tabbed as a 'journey man'.

According to The Blogger's Poll, the top three by the end of May sat at Ellsbury, David Murphy, and Oakland pitcher Greg Smith-none of whom look even partially deserving as of today. As it stands, it appears as if Longoria, Aviles, and Ramirez top the list for position players in the American League, with Joba Chamberlain and Brad Zeigler being the tops of the pitching class.

The American League manager of the year will come down to two candidates, the Tampa Bay Rays' Joe Maddon and Minnesota Twins' Ron Gardenhire. Mike Scocia makes an annual showing on this list, but this season, Maddon and Gardenhire have been the class of the American League.


In similar fashion, the National League provides us with many candidates, most of whom come from non-playoff contenders. There are, however, players with statistics that the BBWA favor and grade at too high of a level.

Another issue with the National League is the fact that two of the most important players have half a season or less of statistics accumulated. Both Manny Ramirez and CC Sabathia would be sure fire locks if they had played from Opening Day at that level in the National League. However, that they were mid-season acquisitions, it is difficult to discover exactly what type of impact they had on their respective teams, or if their impact was greater then a player with a full season worth of playing time.

For the MVP award, right off the bat I am going to eliminate Ryan Howard, who is receiving far too much recognition in the media. True he has been a catalyst in the Phillies run to winning the National League East due to his monster September. It is not as if he is the sole reason the Phils are going to make the playoffs, and his ineptitude at the plate through much of the season is reason enough to discredit him. Despite that, people see the Phillies in the playoffs and can only recall what a player has done for them lately.

If Howard is going to be considered for National League MVP, Manny deserves the first look. In fact, it is arguable that Howard's September wasn't any more spectacular then was his teammates April. Recall Chase Utley absolutely killed it in April, hammering out 10 home runs.

The National League MVP will come down to four players, Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Hanley Ramirez, and David Wright, with Manny Ramirez having an outside shot at the award given what he did for the entire Dodgers club. None of these players made the playoffs, but each team was integral in providing their respective clubs close to the playoffs-which I feel is equally as valuable.

As for the Cy Young race, there is no race in my opinion. This is an open and shut case belonging to Tim Lincecum. I will let the numbers direct me here allowing Johan Santana to enter the race. Also receiving consideration will be Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, and CC Sabathia.

Similar to the American League, a hot start out of one of the National League's rookies seemed to eliminate the purpose for further discussion. Geovanny Soto was an absolute monster the first month of the season. However, as the season grew on, catching duties began to catch up to Soto as his incredible pace predictably slowed. Still the favorite for the award, Soto invited Jair Jurrjens, Joey Votto, and Hiroki Kuroda into the conversation.

Joe Torre and Lou Pinella did splendid jobs managing their respective clubs, however the job is fairly easy when you have a roster of All Stars. Certainly they can not be docked for having the benefit of a great team, and will be strongly considered as candidates to win this award. Also involved in the discussion will be Florida's Fredi Gonzalez, Philadelphia's Charlie Manuel, and Houston's Cecil Cooper.


You may be still asking yourself, 'So what about these "OLIBy's"?' Well, as you obviously remember, last year I handed out baseball's version of the Dundy's. While I have enjoyed receiving hits from fans of NBC's The Office, I feel terrible that they aren't able to see any pictures of Angela-almost as terrible as I feel for teachers looking for Lesson Plans for SE Hinton's The Outisders-thus, it is time to change the name for this 'annual' award show.

The OLIBy's will be much the same as they were in 2007, providing 'bests' and 'worsts', as well as acknowledging impressive milestones. Stay tuned for those and much more to come!