Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Santana to the Metropolitans

So you want the most dominating pitcher over the last over the last six seasons? You think you are a big shot and but don't want to have to go into a bidding war during the 2008-09 Hot Stove League? Or maybe you believe that you are one piece away from being a champion and want to enter your new stadium with a ring ceremony?

Check out the rest of my article here.


Jonathan said...

When you say that this puts Toronto in an excellent position with A.J. Burnett, do you mean if they try to trade him at the deadline? I figured the money Johan is getting just confirmed they can't afford him and he's going to walk at the end of the year.

Brandon Heikoop said...

Hey Jonathan, thanks for reading. I am asserting that there is now one less arm available to be traded for. With Bedard likely gone, and Cleveland hopefully in the playoff race, Burnett and Blanton may be all the market has left.

That said, there was a lot of demand for Santana, Bedard, etc, so I see Burnett's inherit value increasing with the movement of Santana.

Jonathan said...

I think you're right- it would take more triage or a collapse for the Jays to be totally out of it at the deadline, though. Even last year, they were in the "just-feasible-enough-for-trading- a-star-to-be-a-terrible-PR-move" territory when it rolled around.

Brandon Heikoop said...

Its iffy though. JP is a smart man, he knows what type of value each of his players hold to his club at the very moment. If he sees the chance that AJ is going to be no more valuable then Joe Long Reliever (is Brian Tallet still around), then I believe he is going to make a move. Especially if the bounty is something close to what the Twins got-which many are stating is less then they could have received closer to the deadline-or even a lesser package with two high ceiling players (Gomez+Guerra).

I for one believe that Detroit, Chicago and a dark horse, Tampa Bay will all be willing to give up a big chunk of change for a guy like Burnett.

This is a moot point if the Jays are winning the division though. Even with a lot of expected improvement (luck, progression, return to form) I think it is tough for anyone to expect a team to be better then the BoSox.

Brandon Heikoop said...

Another consideration, I'm not certain trading AJ Burnett would have people wanting to hang JP from the 500s. It is already a given that he won't be around for 2009. It is a well known fact that he hasn't been terribly happy during his tenure in Toronto-I believe even JP himself publicly called him out. If we were talking Wells, Halladay or even Reed, that is a different story.

Jonathan said...

Well, yah- but he's also a solid #2 as long as he's healthy. If Burnett isn't more valuable than Tallet, it's because he's injured and therefore untradeable.

The only way I really see it happening is if the team goes in the tank early enough the season is obviously toast and he can get more from some contender (Tampa?!) than the first round + supplemental pick from him walking. In the past JP hasn't been in a hurry to dump guys (Lilly, Stairs) he might have be able to get something for.

Brandon Heikoop said...

Don't sleep on Tampa. They've put together a very deep bullpen. Their rotation has a very solid 1-3 and if they can get league average, or slightly above from the rest of their rotation, this team can be scary good.

Also, I'm not sure tanking it is what it will take. The team can still be playing at or above 500 but be significantly behind. If in June the team is 5-7 games out, I believe JP will be smart enough to move forward.

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