Blogger Poll - National League Awards for Week 6

Over at Baseball Digest Daily I reflect upon my first vote at Baseball Happenings. Last week's vote was a poll for the National League up to May 10th, 2008. Check out my reflection at BDD and then flip on over to Baseball Happenings to see how my votes compared to those in the baseball community.

Division by Division Preview - NL East

To be a shock jock…On ESPN Radio this morning Colin Cowherd reported a study conducted by CBS that reported those with a college education and who make more then fifty thousand dollars are more likely to believe that Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds should not be allowed into Baseball’s Hall of Fame. Although there are a lot of questions regarding the survey performed, the conclusions are interesting.

The reason why I opened this Division Preview with this is because I want to remind readers that an opinion and conclusion can be formed on any basis. While the ‘wealthy’ and ‘educated’ believe that Clemens and Bonds cheated so much that they should not be eligible for the HOF is laughable. However, this does not mean that those who entered this survey are wrong, although I would argue they are misinformed.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
I am a big fan of what the Phil’s are bringing to the table offensively. This club had an impressive turnaround in 2007 and surprised a lot of people following what was thought to be a rebuilding year after giving up Bobby Abreu for salary relief the previous season. The Phillies are improved from the team that was on the field for Opening Day 2007 and that team won the division.

The rotation is much improved over the starters they had at the end of the year last season. Bret Myers is back in the rotation after starting only three games in 2007. Hamels is one of the most promising youngsters in baseball and if he can find a way to be healthy this season, should give the Phillies one of the best one-two punches in all of baseball. One has to wonder what is going on with the rest of the rotation, but it appears as though they have just enough to let the bullpen and hitters to win the division.

The bullpen should be a strength from start to finish this season. Tom Gordon will get the ball in the ninth while Brad Lidge. Obviously the Phillies are banking on Lidge being the closer he has shown he is capable of being. It will be interesting to see if JC “free pass” Romero can repeat one of the most fortunate seasons in the league last year.

Even with the loss of Rowand, I believe that this club will be better offensively in 2008 then they were in 2007. Consider not only the injury to Chase Utley but the slow start of Ryan Howard last season. Consider that the Phil’s may have the best RF in all of baseball if the platoon works out the way the splits suggest. This team will put up crooked numbers with regularity. Their home ballpark will again aide this team and its new hitters.

Major Addition: Pedro Feliz – After getting fewer then 20 home runs from their third basemen in 2007, the Phillies finally have a player that can be a threat in this deep lineup. Feliz should hit 5^th or 6^th instead of 3^rd or 4^th which alone should improve his chances at breaking out. Moving to Citizens Bank Ballpark will only further improve his numbers and 30 home runs are very likely from this new acquisition. This signing may go down as one of the top 3 or 4 moves from the off season.

Major Subtraction: Jon Lieber – While his addition to the Cubs is essentially a non-factor, leaving the Phillies takes away depth and will force the club to utilize some terrible pitchers in spot start situations.

Breakout Candidate: Shane Victorino – Missing 30 games and having to play hurt in others definitely stunted the season Victorino was having. In fantasy drafts Carl Crawford is taken with one of the first 20 picks yet Victorino is being taken some 80 picks later. I’m not quite willing to suggest Victorino is the equivalent to Crawford, but if Shane can stay healthy this season, WATCH OUT!

2. Atlanta Braves
How many teams can lose a type B free agent and not even feel the effects of it? I am not entirely certain why the Braves went after Mark Kotsay, but possibly the hype of many years ago will finally prove to be valid. Give this team a weekend series against the Mets and it is tough to imagine many New Yorkers tuning in on Sunday to watch their Mets being run over by the Braves pitching.

Atlanta has a capable, old and talented rotation. The top two starters will provide outstanding production and can go head to head with the starting two of any team in the league. Jair Jurrjens has the potential to be an outstanding pitching in the National League. If he can maintain his control and keep allowing his fielders to do the work, he should have a career close to that of teammate Tim Hudson. And fifth starter Mike Hampton may be as good as it gets, if not in the league, then at least the division. Consider that the worst NRA Hampton owned in the 2.5 seasons prior to his injury (4.37) would have put him at #26 in the National League during the 2007 season.

The bullpen could be excellent or terrible. If Soriano can throw all season without issue, he should be one of the top 3 or 4 closers in the NL. Mike Gonzalez will be back around mid-season and should provide a solid boost to the bullpen. Outside of that, the Braves will hope for further development from the youngsters they are going with. Not bringing in a veteran, although a good decision in the long run may be the reason this team lags behind in 2008.

Offensively, I look for the Braves to be better in 2008 then they were in 2007 despite the subtraction of both Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria. The development of Francouer, McCann, Johnson and a full season of Teixeira will more then make up for whatever the club had last season. However, this team is not without fault offensively, as similar to their bullpen, the club lacks reliable depth. An injury to oft-injured Chipper Jones could completely derail the Braves hopes in 2008.

Major Addition: Jair Jurrjens – I wrote about him above and will stick with my comments. Jurrjens has solid stuff which enabled him to cruise through the minor leagues. I cannot see a way that the Tigers do not regret trading him away, no matter how good their 2008 rotation is and no matter how much Renteria brings to the table. Interestingly, the Braves essentially acquired Jurrjens for failed prospect Andy Marte.

Major Subtraction: Octavio Dotel – This is the veteran presence I was referring to when I discussed the bullpen earlier. While the ChiSox overpaid for Dotel’s services and gave him far too many years, Dotel is still extremely valuable and would have proven to be a season long stabilizer for the Braves.

Breakout Candidate: Jeff Francouer – Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus did an outstanding article on Frenchy in the middle of January. Since that point I have been sold on the kid yet unable to pull the trigger on him in any fantasy drafts. 35 home runs are likely.

3. New York Mets
I’ve already discussed my displeasure for old teams with the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox. The Mets are no different and if not for a devastatingly terrible bottom of the division, I would consider ranking the Mets lower. Offensively the club is going to struggle to remain healthy. Defensively the club is old and may end up being one of the worst in the league. Their pitching staff has a lot of talent, but pitching is never a sure thing and should rarely be counted on.

Adding Johan Santana gave the Mets a legitimate #1, truly legitimate; as in the best in baseball. Pitching at Shea in the National League should do for Santana what moving to Arizona did for Randy Johnson. Pedro Martinez looked great essentially rehabbing in 2007, but his velocity dropped for at least a third straight season and his reliance on a curveball all be disappeared (courtesy Fan Graphs). As much as I like the guy, he is the furthest thing from a guarantee this season. This leads to the Mets reliance on Perez and Maine, neither of whom should be relied on for much more then #5-type numbers in 2008. The loss of Glavine will be felt as well as the injury to 75 year old El Duqe. Expect the Mets to further weaken their minor league system in an attempt to buy the division in 2008.

The bullpen is one of my favorite in baseball. Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano and Schoeneweis make for an incredible deep top of the bullpen. Two of my favorites, Burgos and Sanchez will start their seasons on the disabled list. Although this is not a debilitating blow, although it is one that will need to be monitored throughout the system as the Mets will not be able to afford many other injuries. Joe Smith is a guy to watch out for this year as I believe the Mets will give him a larger and larger role as the season goes on.

Offensively the Mets have three of the best weapons in the Majors. Wright, Reyes and Beltran give the Mets and their opponents a very difficult top of the order. However that is essentially where it stops. Age, injuries and inefficiency will derail any substantial runs the team may go on in an inning. While Alou, Delgado and Church are all capable hitters, expecting any one of them to be at 100% for 120-130 games is irrational. Thus, Moises Alou for 110 games plus Angel Pagan for 52 is essentially as bad of a left field as the Giant have.

Major Addition: Johan Santana – I probably don’t even need to waste my time with this. And despite my belief that the Mets overpaid (both in dollars and prospects) for his services, but for the 2008 season, he should make Met fans forget about the cost.

Major Subtraction: Tom Glavine – Essentially a wash with Santana’s arrival, losing Glavine weakens the rotation. A close runner up could be the loss of Paul LoDuca, whom despite his attitude; LoDuca is still at least league average offensively. His replacement, Brian Schneider may be just as well served not swinging at all. If the Mets are worried about defensive production, they should have started elsewhere.

Breakout Candidate: Joe Smith – Having had an extremely successful rookie campaign, expect Smith to breakout with additional responsibilities placed upon him. Look for Smith to vulture some saves and even be a consistent reliever in the 7^th and possibly even the 8^th inning.

4. Washington Nationals
Unfortunately the Nationals are without much of a farm system and worse yet, haven’t any reliable arms with the big club. However, the club is stacked with high ceiling hitters and has an ample amount of potential trade chips. Felipe Lopez, Dmitri Young and Wily Mo Pena are three such players whom are going to have to put in a lot of work in order to earn full time roles with the club in 2008. Either that, or luck out with injuries to their teammates. Expect at least one of the three to be moved for minor league pitching.

If I sat down with Nats GM Jim Bowden, before I even introduced myself I would ask him why he released John Patterson. I can accept that he may not have fit into the teams plans for 2008, but how Bowden did not make a trade, just get something for Patterson is beyond me, especially for this ball club. Outside of that, the Nationals haven’t any pitchers that a Major League team would fear meeting in any game of a series-in fact, the Nationals currently have only 4 pitchers listed on their MLB.com depth chart. The signing of Perez was a good one and he had a nice Opening Day start which could prove a sign for things to come.

There is not a whole lot of excitement in the bullpen, but when you have a rotation like the Nationals do, expecting to have many 7^th, 8^th or 9^th inning leads is senseless. However, between Rivera, Rauch, Colume, Cordero and Ayala, the Nats have a decent bunch that should allow the club to squeak out wins on the rare occasion their starters have a quality start.

Offensively, the club has as much potential as anyone in the Majors. That is not to say that the club is going to go on to lead the league in runs, but the Nats are well on their way to building a winning club. Ryan Zimmerman, Lasting Milledge, and Elijah Dukes are some of the most talented youngsters in the league, watch for each of them to make considerable strides in 2008. Austin Kearns and Nick Johnson are de facto veterans who put up tough at bats and have some solid offensive potential. Watch out for Kearns as his home/road splits were ridiculous in 2007.

Major Addition: Elijah Dukes – While Milledge will probably be the better major leaguer in the short and long term, the Nats acquired Dukes for NOTHING. Agreed, the cost of Milledge was not a whole lot, Dukes was brought aboard for nothing. In 2007, Dukes, the then 23 year old, hit 10 home runs in 182 at bats, which prorates out to 33 home runs over the course of 600 at bats. In an easier league, no longer as a rookie, 30 home runs is definitely achievable for Dukes with full playing time. His strikeout to walk ratio was incredible for a 23 year old rookie, which is evidence enough for me that Dukes is capable of being an excellent everyday hitter.

Major Subtraction: John Patterson – When a team drops their best pitcher one has to wonder what is going on. Although Patterson did not add much in 2007, he is still young enough to offer up some solid potential.

Breakout Candidate: Austin Kearns – It feels as if Kearns has been around forever and put his potential on display year after year. This year, Kearns gets to leave RFK where he is a career .727 slugging outfielder or 100 points lower then he hit on the road in 2007. If the new ballpark is about an average hitter’s park, expect Kearns to return as a .300 hitter with 25-30 home runs as his ceiling.

5. Florida Marlins
The Marlins are going to be dreadful in 2008. However, even if they did not move Willis or Cabrera the Marlins would have been dreadful while profiting a lot less money this coming season. That said, the amount of players and potential they received from the Tigers is tremendous. The Marlins GM also did well to bring aboard youngsters whom other teams had given up on, namely Jorge Cantu.

The rotation has a lot of upside despite a heck of a lot of injuries. 2008 isn’t going to matter for the Marlins anyways, so there is no need to rush back Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, etc. Really, there isn’t much to write here. Mark Hendrickson is said to be the Opening Day starter and I would be wasting my time and yours by going into detail about that. Andrew Miller shouldn’t be with the big league club this year, but the Marlins don’t have many other healthy options and his service clock is already going.

I like this bullpen. Although, like the Nationals, how much value does a good bullpen do this club? Kevin Gregg is a nice, yet unspectacular closer. Miller, Tankersley, Lindstrom and Kensing are all nice, young and cheap relievers, but if there isn’t a lead to hold what is the difference between me and one of those three taking the hill?

Offensively the Marlins do not have much. Hanley Ramirez will not see a strike, even on a 3-0 count, Dan Uggla isn’t that good to begin with and Jeremy Hermida prefers the disabled list over stardom. Beyond that, the Marlins have a core of role players whom are receiving full time jobs. I like Jorge Cantu, but he hasn’t been good since launching a rocket in the World Baseball Classic.

Major Addition: Jorge Cantu – He is no Miguel Cabrera, but for a team that had no intentions of spending money or prospects to acquire a replacement, Cantu will provide close wins per dollars spent that Cabrera would have.

Major Subtraction: Miguel Cabrera – One of the top 4 or 5 players in the majors, any time you lose a player of this talent you are going to feel it. Despite the fact that the Marlins were not drawing any fans and had not much of a chance at competing in 2008, they will still miss Cabrera.

Breakout Candidate: Jeremy Hermida – The youngster was touted as a ‘can’t miss’ prospect coming through the ranks. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy for an entire season, but despite that, Hermida put up outstanding numbers in the second half of 2007. With relatively sustainable batted ball data, look for Hermida to surprise the league if healthy!

Division by Division Preview - NL West

Division by Division Preview

The real Opening Day is but a week away and I must admit I could not be more excited. Like most of my articles, I have been posting my Division Previews on The Bleacher Report. While I will continue to do so because the website provides an excellent outlet and resource to promote my writing, I have begun to grow tired explaining why I do not like player XYZ due to his terrible sabermetric measures. It also is tiring explaining to a fan my rationale for why I make the statements I do. That is, a fan of the Detroit Tigers does not want to hear that their team is not my favorite to win the World Series and consequently will disagree without any true logic or reason. Sadly, The Bleacher Report has turned into a website where fans can blog and complain about their teams without having an open mind.

But I digress; the National League West is the most wide open division in baseball. Aside from the San Francisco Giants, there is no clear cut winner in the division, nor does there appear to be one for the foreseeable future as each of the clubs own spectacular minor league systems-with the exception of the Giants of course.

National League West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

Despite deserving to be the worst or second worst team in the division in 2007 the Diamondbacks, as you know, made it to the National League Championship Series. Although the measures are not entirely without flaws as they simply count total runs allowed and scored. Thus, a team loses 10-0 that is worse off then a team that loses 2-1. The thinking is that at the end of a 162 game season, the blowout loses and tight victories will even one another out. Hence, Pythagoras.

While not extraordinarily deep, the Diamondbacks have arguably the best rotation in the majors. With two legitimates National League aces whom are both young and durable, the Diamondbacks can match up with any team. Randy Johnson and Doug Davis are arguably the best 3^rd and 4^th starters in the National League although one has to wonder how many innings they can be depended on. Outside of that, I prefer Yusmeiro Petit, but feel as though Owings will be the one getting the ball every 5^th day as the final arm in the rotation. The wild card is Max Scherzer whom should be called up at some point this season as either a dominant reliever or as a quality starter.

Josh Byrnes has got to be one of the most intelligent GMs in the Majors. He made an unpredictable and HUGE shakeup to his bullpen and came out no worse for the wear. Utilizing Valverde’s high save figures as trade bait was a stroke of pure genius and is one of many reasons why Byrnes is the best GM in baseball. The Diamondbacks have a nice bullpen that is strong at the top. Much of their Pythagorean problems of 2007 were related to having a weak set of mop up men, which is the same case today but who cares!

Offensively, the clubs in the National League West can only hope that the Diamondbacks suffer a plague of horrific injuries, otherwise, this team is going to be a powerhouse for years to come. That is because of youngsters such as Conor Jackson, Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton whom should all begin to come into their own. Watch out, as this team is going to be something special.

Breakout Candidate: Stephen Drew – Drew was the darling of many fantasy owners entering the 2007 season as he was spectacular in his call up the previous season. I expect Drew to bounce back and build off of last year if he can avoid the bumps and bruises that slowed him at times last year.

Major Addition: Dan Haren – A high school writing teacher once told me to assume the reader knows nothing. I think I accomplished that here.

Major Subtraction: Tony Clark – Yes, I am going there. And no, I know what I am talking about here. Hear me out; in 2007 the Diamondbacks received around 30hr from their 1B “platoon”, if Conor Jackson reaches 25 this season that will be an impressive feat.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

A reader may have a difficult time swallowing this prediction based on what I said about the Cubs and Astros. However, the Dodgers have a stable enough core of youngsters that even though they will rely on the veterans to contribute a great deal in order for them to succeed (and consequently win the National League Wild Card). This though, is not being entirely fair to the Dodgers as top to bottom they have a better roster then both the Cubs and the Astros.

The rotation is filled nicely with veterans and youth but does lack the ever important depth quality. With the injured Jason Schmidt and the overly talented yet highly untested Clayton Kershaw trying to prove that he is ready, the Dodgers are crossing their fingers nothing goes wrong in the first month or two of the season. Nevertheless, the Dodgers have an interesting story to follow within their rotation as I am certain Kershaw will be pushing the envelope.

As far as bullpens are concerned, the Dodgers have as good of a pen as it gets. With outstanding pitchers in every slot, the Dodgers have a surplus of strong, talented and young arms that they could potentially use for trade bait if need be. Jonathan Broxton is an exciting arm that more and more people are beginning to discover, but my personal favorite Yhency Brazoban-whom I once tabbed “Better than Gagne”-will be back at full strength this season and should make an impact for the Dodgers.

Offensively, the club is deep without one true star; yet! While most are tabbing Matt Kemp as the future of the organization, I have a feeling Andre Ethier will be the bigger star in 2008. That is not to knock Kemp, I think he will turn heads this season, but I am of the belief that this will be Ethier’s year. Another player to watch out for is James Loney, whom experts and scouts were concerned may not develop the needed power to be an everyday first basemen. If 2007 was a display of what Loney is capable of doing, watch out in 2008 as he is given a full workload.

Breakout Candidate: There are truly so many but I am going to take a shot at Andre Ethier – As a 25 year old Ethier began to breakout in 2007 however was limited in his at bats. He is currently having an outstanding Spring and will hopefully beat out Juan Pierre for the final starting outfielders spot.

Major Addition: Hiroki Kuroda – With a nice, not spectacular Japanese League career under his belt, Kuroda comes to North America with moderate expectations. He was one of the most sought after free agents this winter and is struggling to adjust to North American baseball in the Spring. I’m willing to give him a bit more time before declaring this a done deal and would like to think the Dodgers weren’t just throwing money around.

Major Subtraction: None that I can see. In fact, it appears as if the Dodgers added more thru what they lost.

3. San Diego Padres

One of the best run organizations in baseball, the Padres need to start making decisions with the future of the ball club in mind. Chase Headley should be starting the year in the outfield, Scott Hairston should be given ample at bats at some position on the field and Heath Bell needs to be given at least a handful of saves to see if he can be the closer of the future. All in all, the club needs to forget about the minor gains they will receive by throwing Giles and Edmonds out there and start to look to the future, the window in San Diego has, in my opinion, shut.

The rotation is as good as it gets featuring two legitimate aces in Peavy and Young. In addition to these two frontline starters are returnee Greg Maddux and my annual ‘tease of the year’ Randy Wolf. In addition to these four quality starters is the hope that this year will be the year that Mark Prior is able to come back healthy and be the pitcher everyone thought he was going to be. Worst case scenario is that the Padres are again boosted by playing at PETCO and boast one of the leagues top rotations.

Despite not having a terribly deep nor overpowering bullpen, the Padres seem to get by just fine. Bell and Hoffman are as good as it gets in the 8^th/9^th innings, and the rest of the bullpen is filled with quality complimentary arms. Like the rotation, the bullpen is aided by PETCO Park only needing to be great for 40 games or so when they are winning on the road.

Offensively this can be a nice youthful core. Between Bard, Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, Greene and potentially Headley, they have a young core that in any other ball park would be feared while playing at home. Consider that this team slugged a fearsome .378 at PETCO in 2007 (good for second last in all of baseball) and .440 on the road (6^th in the majors). Traditionally teams are supposed to hit worse on the road then at home, but when you are playing 81 games at PETCO, one can be excused for the giant discrepancy (without doing the calculations, it’s the largest in baseball!).

Breakout Candidate: Kevin Kouzmanoff – Simply put, what Kouz did in the second half of 2007 he is capable of doing for the entire season. He is a guy whom I would argue as one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball. I think his 2008 season will go a long way to backing my opinion of that.

Major Addition: Tadahito Iguchi – One of few hitters whom I think will not be incredibly hurt by hitting in PETCO given his line drive abilities. That said his biggest asset will be in the fact that he is filling one of the Padres biggest holes from a year ago.

Major Subtraction: Milton Bradley – I think Milton is one of the most underrated players in baseball. His fielding plus on base abilities are second to none in my opinion and he is a player who is essentially irreplaceable.

4. Colorado Rockies

While the Rockies hitting should remain the course from a year ago, it is doubtful they have the pitching and defensive success that allowed them to go on their late season tear. Additionally, consider what would have been had they simply lost one game down that stretch, or even a close one in April. Cutting it that close, despite their heroic march to the World Series does not sit well for me and is the reason I rank them at #4 for the division.

The rotation returns intact from what the club had down the stretch and into the playoffs. With youth on its side there is reason for optimism. However, similar to the Padres home hitting woes, the Rockies must suffer with hitting at Coors Field, which despite managements best efforts, is still a hitters park. Neither Francis nor Cook displaces fear in opponents despite each having their own special qualities (Francis’ hook and Cook’s “bowling ball fastball”). Outside of those two starters is a litany of high ceiling youngsters and never been journey men. Kip Wells is a guy to watch out for, as the once solid Pirate tries to resurrect his career in Colorado.

Interestingly the Rockies bullpen was a strong point in 2007 as they placed 12^th in all of baseball with an ERA under 4 for the first time that can be researched. The bullpen is quite deep overall, featuring two capable closers in Corpas and Fuentes. Watch out for a big trade this season involving Fuentes that should help stockpile the Rockies with major league ready starters.

Offensively this team is boosted from Coors Field. However, when one considers that this club goes from being far and away the most powerful team at home (+.073 over the next closest opponent in 2007) to a middle of the road team away (-.144 compared to home slugging) I can see why the Rockies may be hesitant to lock up Holiday long term. That said, for 81 games the Rockies are still a wrecking ball of destruction.

Breakout Candidate: Willy Taveras – 33 steals in only 97 games, the highest ISO of the hitter’s career, 26 years old. Keep these numbers in mind as they will all be factors as to why I feel Taveras will breakout in 2008. Additionally, Phil Garner called Taveras ‘the most talented hitter he has ever been around’ claiming that he expected a power outbreak from him in the near future.

Major Addition: None – This team decided not to make any major moves this off season allowing last years NL champs to take another swing at things. I’m not impressed.

Major Subtraction: Kaz Matsui – I recognize it was a bad signing for the Astros but this was a tough loss for the Rockies. There does not seem to be an obvious nor quality choice to replace Kaz and unless Marcus Giles steps up, this is going to be a long and painful season up the middle for the Rocks.

5. San Francisco Giants

This is an embarrassing assembly of talent and a terrible job at managing the organization. I understood the Zito signing at the time and at this point the club simply needs to swallow its pride and take that hit. But to have the farm system this club has combined with brining in Aaron Rowand is simply an embarrassment. This team should be booted out of the division for not representing an understanding of how to rebuild.

The rotation is solid with Cain and Lincecum. Unfortunately, by the time these two are truly in their prime, SBC Park will be a ghost town and the Giants won’t be able to afford to keep either player around for the future. The other youngster (Noah Lowry) is hurt and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was shut down for the year. That leaves the door open for Jonathan Sanchez whom had an incredible minor league career; watch out for this kid as PECOTA projects him to be close to a strikeout an inning.

For a contender this would be a bad bullpen. In fact, it would be one that probably made a contender into a pretender, like the Tigers. For the Giants, this will be exactly what it should be, a bridge to the next game. Brian Wilson has closers stuff and should succeed when called upon, but to target him as a guy with more then 25 saves would be to make a mistake.

I simply cannot believe that an organization would go into a season with Rowand and Molina as the heart of their order. From a Fantasy perspective I like Molina, but that is simply because of the opportunity he is being handed. There is no way he truly deserves that. The club is also continuing to give old as dirt veterans Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham starting jobs. I can understand Vizquel as he may be able to put some butts in the seats because of his glove, but Durham should hardly be a major leaguer at this point in his career. With Velez having a terrific Spring, what would it hurt to give him full time at bats at second base?

Breakout Candidate: Jonathan Sanchez – Honestly, I don’t think anyone is capable of breaking out this year. Considering it does not matter how well any one player plays, they will be overshadowed by the pathetic performance of their teammates. Sanchez is a player who will be given the opportunity to shine and should take the ball and run with it-hopefully out of town.

Major Addition: NONE! This team should have stood pat with what it had, cut their loses and wait for the contracts of Roberts, Winn, Vizquel and Durham to expire and completely rebuilt. Instead, the club brought Aaron Rowand aboard in hopes of who knows. The only bright spot about Rowand is that he will be a nice clubhouse presence once this team is ready to contend, an expensive one, but a nice one.

Major Subtraction: I am actually going to say NONE! There isn’t a player that could have left this team that would have hurt their chances at competing in 2008 or in the future. Letting go of Bonds and Feliz was the right thing to do, unfortunately the club didn’t realize this in June or July of last year.

Division by Division Preview - NL Central

Division by Division Preview

I’m calling it, right here, right now. The National League Central will pose zero threat to the other divisions in baseball. There is not a team in this division that should strike fear in the eyes of an opponent for a three game series, let alone in October. Last year, the division winning Cubs would have finished no better then 3^rd in any of the other divisions in baseball, doing so in a division where half of the teams finished with only 73 victories.

National League Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis struggled to field a healthy lineup in 2007 and they have started the 2008 season in similar fashion. Pujols is said to have a serious elbow issue (although his Spring does not represent this fact) and Carpenter is still shelved while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. However, this team is deep and plays in a division where there lacks any real dominant clubs.

The Cards pitching staff is the deepest in baseball. Although they lack a sure-thing legitimate star, each of starting five represent a quality arm. When you also consider the club will have Carpenter, Mulder and Clement back eventually, the club has plenty of options.

Conversely, the bullpen is one that is tough to get excited about. There really isn’t an arm that is particularly good, but as a collection, they are probably good enough. Adding an arm at some point in this season is as obvious of a statement as I will ever make.

Offensively, this is the best lineup the Cards have rolled out there in recent memory. Pujols finally has a power bat to protect him in the lineup, and the deep, talented and young outfield gives promise that this team will be able to put up some crooked numbers.

Major Addition: Lohse and Clement – These two will help solidify the Cards rotation, adding experience and depth. Consider the pitchers the Cards would be throwing out there until Carpenter and Mulder are healthy and tell me this duo isn’t the biggest acquisition.

Major Subtraction: Troy Percival – Kind of the reverse logic of Lohse and Clement, losing Percival will prove as a major hit to their bullpen.

Breakout Candidate: Brian Barton – If the former Indian is given an opportunity, which seems likely, he will make the Tribe pay for not giving him a real shot. Fact is, anyone with that strong of an on base percentage in the minors (.416) is doing something right at the dish.

2. Milwaukee Brewers

What a collection of young talent! The Brew crew has two formidable MVP candidates and others on the verge of breaking out. The rotation and bullpen are both deep and strong. Another thing people cannot underestimate is the strides they will make defensively. Consider in 2007 that Ryan Braun made a spectacular 26 errors, his replacement, Bill Hall, made 7 fewer in 2006 as a short stop and third basemen (while playing in more games). Furthermore, consider the addition of Mike Cameron, one of the best center fielders in the majors. Milwaukee ranked 25^th in the majors in Defensive Zone Efficiency (a Baseball Prospectus statistic), at worst, the team will be in the top 20.

The bullpen appears to be one of the best, on paper that is. However, if there are any slip ups from Gagne or Turnbow, they have strong core behind them with Torres and Riske. Having that many pitchers with the track record of a closer and the ability to be a strong stopper is something that no other team has. Add in further depth, and as I will mention, run-offs form the rotation, this pen is ready for a long Summer’s battle.

Possessing a rotation that is as young and deep as the one the Brewer’s own is incredible. Had the team not shelled out big bucks for Suppan prior to last season, I would allow the argument that they have the best five in the majors. Alas, they did, and no matter how he performs, Suppan will get the ball every fifth day. Aside from that, Parra (whom I am the biggest supporter of) and Gallardo will give Central team’s nightmares all season long. Unfortunately, I believe Parra will begin the year in the bullpen and have a Liriano-like start to his career.

Young and deep, am I repeating myself? With a batting lineup full of potent weapons, the Brewers are going to out slug most teams in the National League. In fact, they may very well come close to performing at the level of an American League team. They have offensive weapons all over the diamond and only poor plate discipline can keep this club from making a serious impact in 2008.

Major Addition: Mike Cameron – The trickle down effect that Cameron will have defensively will presumably go unnoticed, although it shouldn’t. It will be the offensive leadership that Cameron will bring to the top of the batting order.

Major Subtraction: Johnny Estrada – Apparently I have a man-crush on Johnny, but I hate the fact that they replaced him with Kendall. Maybe for team chemistry it will make a difference, but Kendall is absolutely dreadful at all aspects of the game.

Breakout Candidate: Manny Parra – No, he is not even a candidate. Manny is my LOCK to breakout. Even before he was having a downright dominating Spring, I wrote about how much I expected out of the kid in 2008. That has not changed at all; in fact, he is starting to raise eyebrows all over now.

3. Chicago Cubs

Shouldn’t last years division winners who improved their team be higher on this list? Sure, you can put them there. But the fact is, I’m not sold on their rotation and I worry about injuries again getting the better of this team.

The bullpen should again be strong for the Cubs as they have three pitchers who are all capable of shutting the door at any point and time. Injuries must be a concern as Howry is getting up there in age and Wood is Wood (or some sort of other very brittle fiber).

Like the Brewer and Cardinals, the Cubs have depth in the starting rotation, which will result in either a trade, or a simple shuffling of arms. The problem, it doesn’t look as though the Cubs have that every fifth day ace. Most would have agreed that Zambrano was it entering 2007, but Rich Hill appears to be the better bet in 2008. However, I worry about Hills durability, as he seems to have issues going deep into games.

Offensively, the Cubs are stacked. But they are also getting up there in age and are quite brittle. Only one player played in 150 or more games in 2007. In addition to that, the club is below average in getting on base. The addition of Fukudome will undoubtedly assist in that area, but coming off of elbow surgery at age 31 is not the most appealing formula in my opinion.

Major Addition: Kosuke Fukudome – Right field has not been the definition of stability for the Cubs over the last few years. However, Fukudome’s Japanese League numbers look eerily similar to that of Kaz Matsui. Either way, the addition should make a noticeable improvement to the Cubs.

Major Subtraction: Passing of Time – While not old, this team has shown its age in recent years with the amount of games missed.

Breakout Candidate: Carlos Marmol – This kid technically broke out in 2007, but I believe this is the year he truly puts his name on the map. The Cubs would have been served well in bringing in a veteran closer to mentor Marmol.

4. Cincinnati Reds

I actually REALLY like this team. I think they have a talented and deep rotation that is capable of big things. They of course have some outstanding power with an interesting core of youth on both sides of the ball. If this team is managed correctly (which is the same burning question everyone is asking) the Reds could easily be fighting it out with the Brewers for second in the division.

As mentioned, the rotation is talented and deep. It also has a great deal of youth on its side, which bodes well for potential breakouts. Harang and Arroyo will be top of the rotation innings eaters who will put up above league average numbers (at least combined). The wildcards are in the remainder of the rotation where the future of the Reds organization will prove whether or not they are for real. Cueto has been brilliant thus far in spring training, Volquez has been better then expected and Bailey is still trying to adjust to the majors. Currently, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has them ranked Volquez, Cueto and Bailey, so it will be interesting to see how things pan out, although it is just as likely that all three do not make the Opening Day rotation as even one or two do. This is Dusty’s team after all.

The bullpen will get a substantial boost with the arrival of Francisco “That’s fun to say!” Cordero. This unit is fairly deep with a nice amount of options to set up Cordero. I personally look for Majewski to take over a primary set up role with the club and to prove his worth after the Reds paid a lot to bring him to Cincinnati in 2006. With that said the Reds have their best bullpen in years and will finally have no issues in handing a lead to it. Although, this is Dusty’s team!

Offensively, this club has as much power as anyone in the league. The most impressive part of that is how young they are. In fact, outside of Griffey Jr. the Reds have a lineup of hitters whom are still in their primes. If you also consider super-prospect Jay Bruce, the Reds are in perfect condition for some very positive progress. The most interesting battle going on for the Reds this season is going on between Freel and Dusty. It will be fun to see what trades the Reds make this season in an attempt to win it all.

Major Addition: Francisco Cordero – Even if Francisco is not the closer he is being paid to be, the affect he will have on the rest of the bullpen will make him worth every penny.

Major Subtraction: Josh Hamilton – By default, he is the Red’s biggest loss. Admittedly, the Reds will benefit more from trading away Hamilton, then if they would have kept him around. That said, with Griffey’s age and Dunn’s expiring contract, the Reds may have been better served biting the bullet this season given the ballpark they play in.

Breakout Candidate: Edinson Volquez – While most are hot on Cueto breaking camp with the team or feel this is the year for Encarnacion (I am among them), I feel Volquez is going to go under the radar and have a very surprising season for the Reds. In fact, I’m thinking he’ll have a Fuasto Carmona like impact.

5. Houston Astros

If one wanted to make an argument that the ‘Stros is built in the same way that the Cubs are, I would not debate that person. Truth be told, I considered ranking the Astros as the forth best team in the division, with the Cubs being fifth and the Reds jumping to third. Alas, I cannot dodge a wrench. That said the Astros are old, REAL old, and weak defensively, REAL weak.

The pitching staff is one of the worst in the majors. They have an ace in Roy Oswalt, and that is essentially it. The remainder of their players can, at best, be defined as spare parts and would most likely have a tough time making the rotation of any other ball club. Consider for a moment, the Astros’ third best starter, Shawn Chacon. I personally like Chacon, but for some reason, the Astros prefer Woody Williams. I believe that is enough said.

The bullpen is no better then it was in 2007. Swapping Lidge for Valverde was a parallel move, where the front office must have thought that the quantity of saves a reliever accumulates is entirely a reflection of their ability. Similarly, the Astros figured swapping with Qualls and Geary would make their team better-I don’t see it.

Offensively, there is a lot to like about the Astros lineup. However, this is an old club with most of the players exiting their prime. While Bourn and Pence offer some hope, neither are capable of carrying this lineup if age catches up to the stars. Additionally, I am not sold on Towles having much of an impact and I wonder how well a rookie catcher (a 24 year old at that) can organize and handle a pitching staff.

Major Addition: Michael Bourn – As much as I like Miguel Tejada’s bat, I worry that the difference between him and Everett defensively is going to take away everything that Miguel’s bat adds. With that said Michael Bourn should be an offensive catalyst for the Astros as he will take over the role in the lineup that was previously held by Craig Biggio.

Major Subtraction: Adam Everett – Aaron Gleeman wrote an outstanding piece on Everett after the Twins signed him to a one year deal in December. I am in no place to argue against this. Conclusion, the Astros pitching staff will miss Everett.

Breakout Candidate: Michael Bourn – After never a career as a backup and a minor leaguer, Bourn will finally get his shot at 600 at bats for the Astros. Considering there is next to nothing behind him, no matter how terrible he plays, he will get a lot of at bats. I anticipate Bourn to be among the league leaders in steals, accomplishing little else.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are still 4 to 5 years from being truly competitive, not only within the division, but in baseball as a whole. Unfortunately, the work that has been done to the team to this point will be done in vain as essentially every player on the current 25 man roster will not be with the team when they are competitive. Then why haven’t they made trades of players whom are at essentially their peak values-I’m looking at you Freddy Sanchez. If you think about it, are 12,000 fans really purchasing tickets to see Sanchez? Or maybe they are buying those tickets to see a 68 win team that they wouldn’t support a 58 win team? Clean house, and start from scratch.

The rotation is young and talented. However, they are neither young enough nor good enough to carry this team into being a contender for years to come. I wouldn’t expect the Pirates to start shipping off Snell, Gorzelanny and Maholm already, but it wouldn’t hurt to start sending out feelers.

The bullpen, like the rotation, has a fair amount of promise. It is both young and talented. However, the team will not have many leads to protect and will consequently be using quality arms in meaningless situations. This is another situation where the team should begin to look four or five years down the road rather then a year or two.

I can not sit here and write about the Pirates lineup without again mentioning that the club really should be without half of the players they are currently going out there with. In fact, I am still scratching my head as to why the club did not roll the dice on Dallas McPherson. That said, this lineup is too weak top to bottom for an opponent to at all worry about facing them. In fact, this lineup is the equivalent of Mike Piazza’s arm.

Major Addition: None – This is not a bad thing though. Consider the free agent or trades the Pirates have made in recent years that were supposed to get them into the playoffs. Now consider how terrible those moves were and the fact that they didn’t even come close to working out. Not making a move was the best move to make.

Major Subtraction: None – Again, the club kept everyone that wasn’t a free agent. Although they would have been better served making some trades, letting Chacon and Armas walk was an outstanding (and obvious) decision.

Breakout Candidate: Capps/Snell – Both players already technically broke out. However, both still have a lot of room to grow. According to Dave Rouleau, Ian has ditched two of the pitches that allowed for him to have such success in the minors. Look for Snell to slowly work those pitches back into his repertoire and take some major steps forward. Capps, on the other hand, got his first taste at closing in the bigs logging 18 saves. Given the full time role at closing in 2008, maybe he can pile up close to 40 saves and become a trade target of the Astros.

2007 Awards Show - National League

"The decisions we make in Washington have a direct impact on the people in our country, obviously."—New Albany, Ind., Nov. 13, 2007

I was looking at calendars this afternoon and stumbled upon one of 'Bushisms', obviously. Anyways, as promised, here is my 2007 baseball awards. Click here for the AL awards.

When selecting who will win the awards, I take into account several factors. The first, is how a player performs in respect to their position. For the record, I am not going to pick a player who performed at a high level at a brutal position, but wasn't even in the top 5 or 10 in 'win' stats.

The second criteria is 'Win' stats? The Hardball Times owns a stat for this, as does Baseball Prospectus; called Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB) and Value over Replacement Player (VORP) respectively. I will reference these stats in and out of my writings, for the most part, utilizing both.

Next, I will look at exceptional play of a player. A streak, a record, or really something they did on an individual level to lift the team to higher levels. That is not to say a player from a losing team can not win an award, although admittedly, those players are at a slight disadvantage.

Warning: NL East fans, flick your TVs back to ESPN.

MVP - David Wright
There is a definite argument for a handful of other players here, and I actually have changed my mind on this given where I originally stood with my vote for Matt Holliday. However, the numbers don't lie-nor are they artificially inflated by a home ballpark. Before I get into too much detail about David Wright, I just want to remind everyone that he was only in his age 24 season this year. Another scary factor, he is showing steady improvement across the board, oh and he just joined the illustrious 30/30 club.

Now to the statistical David Wright. How about 4th in the National League in Equvialent Average(EQA) at .329. 2nd in VORP at 81.1 and 1st in WSAB at 21. Against his contemporaries, only Chipper Jones could hold a candle to him, and even then, Chipper is tough to find in the WSAB category-attesting to the reason I choose to use multiple statistics when comparing players.

(Runner Up: J. Rollins)

Rookie - Troy Tulowitzki
I am sick of hearing about the kid too, and it wouldn't surprise me if baseball created a "Sophmore of the Year" award just for Tulowitzki. Also, I prefer Hunter Pence, as a player to build around and as a player whom I envision as having a superior major league career. In fact, save an injury to Pence and a late call up to Ryan Braun and none of us would have to deal with hearing "Tulo! Tulo! Tulo!"

However, we are still talking about a kid who put up the 3rd best VORP among National League rookies at 37.8 and the second best WSAB at 12. However, if you are following along with me, you will have noticed that Tulowitzki trails a fellow rookie in both categories. Yes, Ryan Braun. However, I feel that the amount of time that Braun missed was too much to allow him to win the award over a player who went April to October.

Additionally, the fielding. Tulowitzki ranked as the best fielder in all of baseball in terms of The Hardball Times' Fielding Win Shares. Tulowitzki's 10.9 was worth just under a win more then Braun's 1.5. And to be honest, 1.5 is a pathetic total.

(Runner Up: R. Braun)

Manager - Clint Hurdle
Alright, I think I can be honest with the readers now, I really don't follow the National League. I won't claim too. With the Indians and other American League happenings, combined with the little time I spend with other sports, as well as the rest of my life leaves me with little time to look at teams with which I will essentially never see.

In any event, as I wrote in my Dundy Awards column,

"However, in 2007, things began to shift. The rebuilding efforts in Arizona and Colorado finally came full circle giving both teams an extremely promising and talented young core. Both the Rockies and Diamondbacks fell in the bottom six in overall team payroll, averaging approximately $500,000 per win - contrast that with division rivals the Dodgers and Giants whom spent approximately $1.3M per win and the Yankees and Red Sox whom spent $2.1 and $1.5M respectively per win.
But that isn't it even half of the reason that the Colorado Rockies are my pick for best team in 2007. Rather, their run to close out the season which included a 6 and 1 record against San Diego (3 and 0 at Petco Park), only 8 loses the entire month, an 18 and 4 record against the division (only 3 games of which were against the lowly Giants) and a 13 and 1 record to push themselves in a single game elimination game with division rival San Diego for the wild card birth. If you missed that, the Rockies had to more or less play perfect baseball for half of a month, adding a loss or two down the stretch would have taken them out of the playoffs and subsequently the world series.
As I mentioned, the Rockies had to play perfect baseball down the stretch to simply have a chance at the playoffs. In the teams wild card playoff game against San Diego, the Rocks were within one strike against one of the most accomplished closers of all time from being eliminated. But as per the Rocks season closing run, they managed to scratch out another win and make the playoffs. Riding high, the Rockies made an incredible run through the NL side of the playoffs winning every game they played. Unfortunately, the run ended swiftly as the Rockies were manhandled by the Red Sox and ousted from their first ever trip to the world series."

Being the manager of a team that does all of that is reason enough to win manager of the year in my books.

(Runner Up: C. Manuel)

Executive - Josh Byrnes
Similar to Mark Shapiro, much of the movement that Byrnes did for the Diamondbacks to compete in 2007 was done well before the 2007. He was also in charge of what was a very fortunate team, one whom Baseball Prospectus states actually deserved only 78 wins.

In any event, whoever Byrnes sold his soul too obviously worked. The extent of Byrnes' 2007 resume includes extending Eric Byrnes, giving a full time job to youngsters Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton and Conor Jackson. Despite the struggles of all four of these players at times, Byrnes did not do anything harsh and pull the trigger to bring in veterans with playoff experience.

The biggest acquisitions Byrnes made was in acquiring Randy Johnson and Doug Davis. RJ, while healthy was very effective, while Davis provided what he was brought in to provide, middle of the rotation stability. Similar to the patience Byrnes showed with his young hitters, he did not make a big splash to acquire an aging veteran arm for the stretch. I suppose the best moves Byrnes made, were the moves he didn't make.

(Runner Up: K. Towers)

Cy Young - Brandon Webb
I have already received some heat for this decision, and that is justifiable. Brandon Webb did not lead the NL in any of the triple crown pitching categories, whereas Jake Peavy actually won the NL pitchers triple crown-being only the second pitcher to do so in the National League since 1990.

Statistically, the two were very close. Webb, however was superior to Peavy in the pitching stat that matters the most in my opinion-Exected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), which as I mentioned in the AL Awards show, is my statistic of choice. Webb posted an NL low 3.35 while Peavy, had nearly as awesome of a season at 3.46.

However, Webb did not beat Peavy in every Sabermetric statistic. In fact, Webb trailed Peavy in both 'Win' stats, scoring a 66.1 to Peavy's 77.0 in VORP and a 17 to Peavy's 18 in WSAB-although this number is slightly misleading in the National League, as it gives credit towards a pitchers hitting. In which case, Webb is worth 2.4 Pitching Wins more then Peavy.

Although, this is where opinion takes over. The Cy Young Award is not, in my opinion, simply given to the pitcher who had the best statistics, rather, it is given to the pitcher who had the best season. Involved in this, is what that pitcher did for his club as well as impressive personal feats. As you know, the Diamondbacks made the playoffs and the Padres were unable to win their wildcard play-in game. Webb and Peavy were both the ace's of their respective rotations, however, Webb's value to his team was substantially more as the the next best pitcher on his team posted 12 fewer pitching win shares, compared to Peavy, whom had Chris Young trailing by only 10. Could you imagine the Diamondbacks with Doug Davis as their ace?

In addition to this, Webb went on a memorably streak after the all star break, posting 3 consecutive shutouts, going 42 innings without allowing a run.

This run also coincided with what is the most important time of year for major leagues. It is the time when they are either proving to be contenders or pretenders. As I suggested for the American League Cy Young award, the post all star statistics are vital for a pitchers case in the Cy Young balloting. Here is what Webb and Peavy did during that time period:
Webb: 2.56 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.03 K/9
Peavy: 2.93 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.95 K/9

While both pitchers had incredible post all star lines, Webb was admittedly the superior pitcher.

Through considering the numbers and the value to the pitchers respective teams, it is obvious that Webb is the appropriate choice for the NL Cy Young award. Although, I am able to accept a case for Peavy, I just feel as if his season was not as impressive, nor as valuable as Webb's.

(Runner Up: J. Peavy)

The First Post

Here it is, the official first posting...

This blog will focus on what occurs in and around baseball. It will pose questions for the readers as well as thoughts and outlandish predictions. There will be plenty of bias and a substantial amount of rhetoric about the Cleveland Indians - although, not enough to make this a Cleveland Indians blog. I will come forward and admit my bias towards the American League, however my attempt is not to suggest that Team A is worse then Team B simply because they play in separate leagues or won last weekends series, rather I will utilize a statistical approach at such.

Another aspect of this blog will be as a reader-response to articles and topics that are suitable. Websites with altering opinions or theories will be given, as well as those whom simply offer an enjoyable read.

Disclaimer: I do not claim to be an expert or all knowing. I am a fan of the game and all of its happenings. To ensure my opinions have a semblance of credibility I do a great deal of reading and research.

Thank you, and feel free to leave comments or feedback at any point.
Brandon