Khalil Greene Traded to the St. Louis Cardinals

"The San Diego Padres continued their firesale today, trading Khalil Greene to the St. Louis Cardinals..."

If there was ever a reason to disregard the baseball coverage from network media in Canada, this is it. The Padres continued their firesale today? Continued? As in, this is the first move they have made? As in, the final details of the trade (at the time of the comment) are yet to be announced meaning we don't even know exactly what the Padres are receiving for Greene to be certain this actually is a firesale, and not simply a trade?

The fact is, the Padres are looking to cut payroll. This is presumably a trade that signals a step of that process. But to have the ignorance to suggest that this is a part of the firesale, is to simply ignore the facts.

To this point, the Padres have directly been responsible for sending three players to free agency (Josh Bard, Chip Ambres, and Shawn Estes). Let's face it, only Bard has a chance to truly be missed and could be termed as a cost cutting move-albeit minimally.

The Padres also declined to offer arbitration to Trevor Hoffman. While Hoffman is still an effective closer, it's tough to argue with the Padres' front office deciding against bringing him aboard. Even still, this wouldn't be considered a 'firesale' move in the least bit.

In what is arguably the most 'non-fire-sale-y' move of the offseason, the Padres picked up the 2009 option of Brian Giles. This was a fairly easy move to make, and when everything is all said and done, Giles may be with another team on Opening Day, but the fact remains, he is still with the club.

So too is Jake Peavy, one of the hottest discussed names of the 2009 Hot Stove League. While one can't blame the Padres for not backing down from their current asking price of Peavy, if they were truly involved in a 'firesale' this move certainly would have been made by now.

With all of that being said, how can anyone suggest that the Padres have continued their firesale? It's debatable whether the Padres are legitimately involved in a firesale.


That rant withstanding, the Padres and Cardinals have officially come to terms on a deal that will send Khalil Greene to St. Louis in exchange for relief pitcher Mark Worrell and our favorite PTBNL (Player to be Named Later).

Let's take a look at what is clearly a win for the Cardinals.

Khalil Greene is coming off of a down season, which is typically the perfect time to act on a trade. While Greene has never been one to display an incredible amount of patience, his power and league average contact rate is enough to overcome what will otherwise be a pathetic on base percentage.

Much has been made about Greene's move away from PETCO Park, and how much better he performed on the road then at home. Similar to the case with Matt Holliday, it is lazy analysis to suggest that Greene will perform up to par with his road measures, although the deviation does give us a footing to begin with.

EQA is a statistic that takes into account league and park factors. The statistic is meant to read similar to batting average, in that a mark over .300 is considered good to great, and a mark under .260 is considered worse then league average. The one thing EQA does not consider, however, is if a player was simply unlucky.

Looking at Khalil's career EQA, we see a player that rates as slightly worse then a league average hitter, owning a career mark of .258. However, as we all know, statistics can oftentimes not tell an entire story.

That is, if we see a hitter with a .258 EQA, a simply assumption is that he has performed as frequently above league average, as he has below that mark. This, however, is not the case with Khalil Greene. Looking at the seasons where Greene was a full time member of the Padres, we can see that in four of his five seasons, Greene's EQA has been above .258, only once did his mark fall below that line-well below at that.

Can we then consider this figure to be an outlier? Certainly. While Greene did increase his strikeout rate in 2008, he also provided a line drive rate higher then his career mark. In other words, while we may have expected his batting average to be slightly lower then in previous season's, his .215 mark this year was well below where it should have stood, and subsequently lowered his EQA.

However, if we are going to eliminate a low outlier, should we not eliminate an otherwise high outlier? Of course. In 2004, Greene's rookie season, he provided a career high EQA of .281. While this is not as much of an outlier as his 2008 season, it is far enough from his next best season to predict that it will be a career high. Whether a weakness was noted in Greene, or something altered in his approach we truly do not know, but the fact remains that this is a season that was potentially a career best.

All that being said, we now have 3 seasons of data to look at, 3 nearly identical seasons in terms of EQA. From 2005 to 2007, Greene posted an adjusted OPS of .759, .781, and .813, good for an average of .791.

Entering his age 29 season, it is doubtful that Greene will begin a downward spiral so soon, thus, one could predict that his adjusted OPS would be around .791. Compare that to a 2008 league average OPS of .714 and we have one of the better short stops in the majors. In fact, only 6 teams had a cumulative short stop OPS above that figure, including St. Louis' 26th ranked .635.

A .791 OPS is probably wishful thinking for Greene, but there is little doubt in my mind that he won't exceed his non-adjusted 2005-07 OPS of .745.

As for Greene the fielder, he's probably closer to being a gold glover then an iron glover. That said, he's still a middle of the pack fielder that may surprise a few inching into the top 7.

In exchange for Khalil Greene, the Padres will receive right-handed, sorta side-arming reliever Mark Worrell. This certainly is not a bad pickup by the Padres given Worrell's Minor League track record, however, this can't possibly be as much as they could have received for Greene.

While repeating triple A, Worrell posted a dominated line of over 12 strikeouts per nine innings. At 25 years old, Worrell is a borderline old prospect, although being drafted at age 21 is partially to blame for such.

After being drafted in the 12th round of the 2004 first year player draft, Worrell signed quickly and showed that he was more then capable of handling Minor Leaguers. In 37 innings split between rookie and A ball, Worrell allowed 10 runs, while strikeing out 55.

The 2005 season saw Worrell facing high A hitters for the duration of the year. While Worrell's strikeout rate took a marginal step back, his walks were down and Worrell was displaying the tools that allowed John Sickels at Minor League Ball to rate him as a C+ prospect, citing his 'live arm' as evidence.

2006 was Worrell's first action against men. While Worrell's ERA took a step in a negative direction, his strikeout and walk rates both improved. Sickels again rated him as a C+ prospect, again sitting as the 16th best prospect in the Cardinals organization.

2007 saw another promotion for Worrell, but one that he appeared not ready for. Worrell posted a worse strikeout and walk rate then he had in the previous two seasons despite lowering his FIP. His work in the 2007 season knocked him from Sickels' 2008 prospect list.

Despite being promoted to the Major Leagues at the end of the 2008 season, Worrell's walk rate again rose. This time, however, he coupled an increasing walk rate with a tremendous spike in his strikeout rate. It was because of this spike that Worrell has again become an interesting prospect.

Worrell should flourish in San Diego. As a pitcher who throws 89-90mph from an unusual angle, he should have just enough to provide the Padres with a nice long term arm out of the bullpen. With some decent fielding behind him, and a spacious PETCO outfield, Worrell will never have more value then he does entering the 2009 season. He does, however, have options remaining, which means the Padres have the luxury of not having to carry Worrell on their 25-man roster.

What this also provides San Diego with, is a bit of salary relief for the 2009 season. The $6.5M they save on Greene can now be used to help justify keeping Jake Peavy around for a while, or simply helping with the handful of arbitration eligible players the club has.


In all, for $6.5M and a slightly above average young reliever, the Cardinals picked up a top half short stop. Also, consider that if the Cardinals do not extend Greene-something I would begin working on immediately-there is a very good chance that Greene is at least a Type B free agent, which would net the Cardinals a compensatory draft pick, inside the top 100.

Considering that Worrell had little value to the Cardinals for the 2009 season, and that they flipped a 12th round pick for a potential 3rd rounder is reason enough to consider the Cardinals winners in this deal. That they received a top 12 short stop at a below market price is further evidence of victory for the Cardinals front office.

What I would like to know, however, is what the Orioles and Tigers were doing during these negotiations?

Oh, and TSN, from this point forward you can now refer to moves made by the Padres as part of a firesale.

Eric O'Flaherty - Under the Radar

Under the Radar moves are typically the type of pick-ups that fill the end of a teams roster, the 23rd, 24th, or 25th man. A Spring Training invitee with plenty of upside. Frank Wren of the Atlanta Braves made one of those moves on Thursday, claiming left handed reliever Eric O'Flaherty off of waivers from the Seattle Mariners.

The 23 years old O'Flaherty has been mediocre at best while pitching in the Major Leagues. In exactly 70 innings, O'Flaherty owns a Fielding Independent of Pitching (FIP) of 4.41, a good, but not great figure. In fact, other then his FIP, there isn't much to get excited about given his Major League performance to date, that, of a 1.53 strikeout to walk ratio.

However, O'Flaherty has some nice minor league statistics, particularly the ones that are important for his likely Major League role. That is, O'Flaherty's line against left handed hitters is outstanding, and can hardly be considered as a product of facing minor leaguers.

The first thing that sticks out is the plus two strikeouts per nine innings that O'Flaherty experiences against left handed hitters. Eric goes from owning an average strikeout to walk ratio of just over 2:1, to a solid ratio of 3:1. While this hasn't entirely translated to his performance in the Major Leagues, O'Flaherty also has not been utilized in the appropriate role.

That is, a move to becoming a situational left handed pitcher, a pitcher who comes in to face predominantly left handed hitters, would be a move that would certainly bump O'Flaherty from potential to dependable.

Consider that entering the 2007 season (the last season O'Flaherty qualified), John Sickels of Minor League Ball rated O'Flaherty as a C+ prospect stating that Eric should be a very good reliever.

In a similarly high rating, Baseball America tabbed O'Flaherty as the 10th best prospect in the Mariners system. Either that is telling of a weak system, or that O'Flaherty is a fine relief prospect.

Given that Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had O'Flaherty 'just missing' his top 10 under 25 Mariners prospects for the 2008 season, it seems justifiable to assert he has a legitimate ceiling.


O'Flaherty has a Minor League FIP of 3.28, and while much of the shine on his prospect badge has worn off, it is certainly too early to write him off as at least an effective LOOGY. At just 23 years of age, O'Flaherty is an excellent pick up, still having enough upside to be a complete steal of an acquisition.

As an added bonus, Johan Santana shows up on O'Flaherty's Most Comparable list according to his PECOTA card.

The Marlins Strike Again

In what appears to be a strategy of business 101, the Marlins picked up a reliever off of the scrap heap, inflated his value, and flipped him for a very promising return. This is how you run a sports franchise. This is why in the 16 seasons the Marlins have been in existence, they have managed to win two Major League Baseball World Series Championships, all the while having a penny pinching low payroll.

The club hasn't wasted it's time building a brand new ballpark, or impressing fans. Instead, the club has put together a cast of players to win a championship, then sold those players off for new players that they would have for the next championship run.

The latest appears in the form of a closer who was acquired in an under the radar type of deal. The Florida Marlins Kevin Gregg was traded to the Chicago Cubs, for an explosively talented relief prospect in Jose Ceda. Without even getting into the analysis, the Marlins won this deal hands down, but let's look a little further, to see exactly how foolish the Cubs were in this move.

Kevin Gregg is nothing special. When news broke that the Marlins were looking to unload Gregg, as a fan of the Indians, a team in need of relief hope, I simply shuttered at the idea of giving away anything of value for the still powerful 30 year old reliever.

Gregg owns a nice, by unspectacular strikeout rate. Couple that with a poor walk rate, and you have the makings of an okay reliever. The move from a ballpark which greatly deflates home runs (as noted by Gregg's home run per fly ball rate of 5.15% as a Florida Marlin) to a ballpark which inflates them, one can expect Gregg to take a considerable step back in value. It is a positive that Gregg has improved his fly ball statistics, but we're still talking about a guy who was extremely fortunate to be playing in Dolphin Stadium.

We are also talking about a reliever that is coming off of an injury and is entering the back end of his career.

Jim Hendry and the Chicago Cubs must have decided that it was wise to acquire a cheap plan B closer then to go into the season with Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija, and company-not a terrible idea, however a poorly executed one.

That is, after coming off of a season in which Gregg made $2.5M, in his second season as a closer, there is no reason to believe that Gregg's arbitration figure will not head north of $4M, and stick at at least that number for 2009. As a 'reliable' closer, that is a fair price tag, however, there is little reason to believe that he will be closing in 2009, and even less of a shot at doing so in 2010.

Wouldn't it then have been equally as efficient to bring aboard a pitcher like Kyle Farnsworth? Farnsworth has some experience as a closer and wouldn't cost a top pitching prospect-arguably baseball's best relief prospect. If the Cubbies wanted too, they could have upped the ante slightly, and went hard after Brandon Lyon.

Both angles would have brough aboard a reliever with similar talents, as well as landing one with closing experience in the case of Marmol not quite working out. The dollar and year commitments might have been slightly higher, but not by enough to disuade one from making such moves.

We aren't talking some run of the mill prospect. We aren't talking a failed started who happened to catch on as a reliever. We're talking a legitimate relief prospect. If one were to make odds about what current minor league player would become a closer, and a great one at that, Jose Ceda would top most peoples lists.

The soon-to-be 22 year old right handed fireball reliever has been absolutely dominant in the minors. Three years as a starter (to get in work) and reliever have went a long way in building Ceda's stock, to the point where he was considered as the likely closer-of-the-future in a Chicago organization that has Carlos Marmol.

According to MLB.com,

He throws plenty hard, with a fastball that sits comfortably in the upper 90s and has hit triple digits in the past. His slider has sharpened considerably since he began working in relief in 2007.

The only real blip on Ceda's radar came in '07, when he missed some time with a sore shoulder. When he returned, he finished off the season with 23 1/3 consecutive hitless innings.

Really? 23 1/3 consecutive HITLESS innings?!? If that doesn't sell you, I'm not sure what will. Although I'll keep trying.

Entering the 2008 season, here are a list of highlights from around the interweb:

• Baseball America rated Ceda's fastball as the best in the Cubs system;
• John Sickels rated Ceda as a B- prospect, one of the best relievers in the game;
• Kevin Goldstein rated Ceda as a 3 star prospect, stating, "fastballs that sit in the 94-97 mph range, and he has hit triple-digits on occasion. His slider is also a plus offering that features heavy two-plane break."
  

Goldstein even rose his praise on Ceda after the 2008 season, now bumping him up to a 4 star prospect. Further, Goldstein asserts that there is little doubt Ceda will be pitching late in games sooner rather then later. He cites members of the Cubs organization who believe Ceda is very close to being ready for Major League action right now.

This is a substantial gain from where Ceda was to start the 2007, where Sickels suggests Ceda was a long ways away.


While nobody will suggest that the Cubs shot themselves in the foot here, there is very little reason to believe they improved their club from an angle they couldn't have attacked via free agency. Ceda's value, while an understandable luxury for a club with Marmol, Samardjiza, and Donald Veal, has got to be substantially higher then what the Cubs received for him.

That is, as I mentioned, would the Cubs be worse off with Farnsworth or Lyon for the next 2 or 3 years instead of Gregg? If so, by how much? I think it is reasonable to suggest that Ceda would more then make up for any possible deviation noted there.

2008 BBWAA National League Most Valuable Player

Pujols wins!

This afternoon Albert Pujols was named the National League's Most Valuable Player. In what was an extremely close race due to the fact that there was not a clear cut favorite for the award, the BBWAA managed to pick the most deserving player.

In total, 27 players received votes. That seems like a lot of confusion between the writers. I can't understand how, or why, there would be so many players nominated for the award and it will be interesting once what type of home team biases exist. Specifically, the bottom four players all received one vote each.

I'd like to mention one thing that sticks out to me that, well, is pathetic.

Ryan Howard? Really, what did Howard do to encourage the writers to make this such a close race? What did Howard do that made the writers feel as though he was superior to teammate Chase Utley?

Let's compare the value and win stats of these two players:

RC/27 - Utley 7.79, Howard 6.43
WPA - Howard 2.37, Utley 1.47
VORP - Utley 62.2, Howard 35.3
MLV - Utley 42.7, Howard 27.5
WSAB - Utley 16, Howard 12
WARP - Utley 10.4, Howard 5.0

As you can see, Utley is substantial superior to Howard, leading in 5 of 6 value or win statistical categories.

How about EQA?

Utley - .308
Howard - .291

There you have it, Utley was clearly more valuable then Howard.

An argument was made for the play of Howard down the stretch, however can that same argument not be made for Utley's play to start the season? Chase posted an OPS as of June 2nd of 1.083. By comparison, while Howard was hot down the stretch, his play during that time was substantial less then Chase's, posting an OPS of .954 in the second half.

By voting for Ryan Howard over Chase Utley, the writers are invariably saying that production in April and May does not count to the same degree as production July, August, and September. While games appear to be more meaningful towards the end of the season, had Utley not performed at the level he did in April and May, Howard's second half production would have gone largely unnoticed as the Phils would have been playing meaningless games.

2008 BBWAA American and National League Manager of the Year

The BBWAA announced the American and National League Manager of the Year awards. The selections were not overly surprising, nor am I in the position to debate the decisions made.

Joe Maddon took the honors in the American League with 27 of 28 first place votes. I wonder what Maddon did differently in the eyes of the writers to make him jump from not being in the top 4, to being the best manager? That, or the other managers performed at a substantially less rate.

In the National League, Lou Piniella the award in what was a much tighter race. He was not listed on everyone's ballot but did make it on 27 of 32, which is fairly impressive.

The most interesting vote was for the Brewers Dale Sveum, who was listed on one writers ballot as the third best manager. If CC Sabathia and Manny Ramirez do not qualify for award in the National League, I think it is laughable that someone picked Sveum for the managerial award.

The OLIB's 2008 Manager of the Year

The Manager of the Year Awards are ones that I truly do not care about, nor do I have a strong opinion in regards to it. It may be in part to being lazy, or it may be due to the fact that I have little to no experience playing baseball. Whatever the reason, I simply do not feel qualified to judge the performance of a manager.

That is, the easy and popular choice for the American League Award is Joe Maddon. A just argument is that Maddon was responsible for the Rays climb from worst to first. Having catchy slogans and being an interesting character certainly helps Maddon's case.

But what exactly did he do? It isn't as if Maddon 'managed' his team to being better hitters in 2008 compared to 2007, the statistics suggest both seasons were essentially identical. He did have to deal with a fair amount of injuries to deal with, so maybe he can be complimented for getting what he did out of Eric Hinske and Willy Aybar to patch up a wounded lineup.

However, Maddon also had a fair amount of underperformances. Players who simply played below their expected levels, such as Carlos Pena and BJ Upton. If Maddon is not to be punished for that, shouldn't Eric Wedge get a mulligan for Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner?

Some people may point the the improved performances from the Rays pitchers as evidence to the job that Maddon did, but is that a reflection of his management, or simply a matter of the teams defense improving? I do suppose he can be given credit for getting his pitchers to trust the players behind them, but to what degree?

Maddon successfully implemented two platoons and was patient with Jason Bartlett, so that is working in Maddon's favor.

Working against Maddon is the fact that his pinch hitters were among the worst in all of Major League baseball. Managers are often applauded for picking the right guy off the bench at the right time, but the Rays had the second worst OPS by a pinch hitter in the American League.

The question then, how have people come to the conclusion that Maddon was the American Leagues uncontested Manager of the Year? If the Rays have an identical performance in 2009, will he again win the award, or will it go to a manager that takes his team from the scrap heap to a championship?

That is, is this award a reflection of a team 'over-achieving' in the eyes of the public, or is this an award based on actual management? Are experts so certain about the specific game plans, and managerial styles that they can conclude the exact value of a manager?

Take Terry Francona for example. The Sox were expected to win. The Sox have a roster that on paper, looks like one of a winner. The Sox spend like a winner. Lo and behold, the Red Sox are winners. Can we legitimately say that Francona has less to do with the Sox winning then Maddon had with the Rays winning?

The National League holds a similar story. Lou Pinella seems to be the easy choice. But weren't the Cubs expected to win this year? Didn't many experts pick the Cubs to be the best team in the National League?

My formula for picking a Manager of the Year in each division will be to calculate how many wins per dollar spent each manager contributed. This will not be how I draw my conclusion, it will simply provide me with a couple candidates. In addition to wins per dollar, I will also look at how much a team 'overachieved' (explanation to follow) as well as considering hurdles a manager had to over come.

The chart below ranks teams based on the average price of players (courtesy CBS Sportsline). The highlighted teams (Blue = American League, Red = National League) represents the top three. The sixth column, improperly titled 'wins per million' is actually the amount of money each team spent on a win. The final column utilizes Baseball Prospectus' 3rd order standings compared to a teams actual standings.
In the American League, the top three Managers are the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Joe Maddon from the Rays did the most with the least amount of money spent. However, this is a tricky statistic, as the Rays are a product of having a lot of very impressive youngsters. Nevertheless, putting up a victory at less the $500,000 is an impressive feat.

Ron Gardenhire and the Minnesota Twins posted the second highest amount of wins better then their third order standings suggest. The Twins also did such with the 4th lowest payroll in the American League.

While the Angels are one of the highest priced teams in the league, Mike Scocia also got the most value out of each of his teams' wins among franchises in the top 10 in payroll. What sticks out most with the Angels is that Scocia managed to grab an additional 16 wins then his team deserved according to BP's third Order Wins.

While it is impressive what Maddon did with his low payroll, it isn't as if he took a bunch of nobodies and turned them into gold. A player such as Evan Longoria is a star and while he is not being paid as such, the expectations are similarly as high. Maddon then, is my runner-up for AL Manager of the Year with Mike Scocia taking the award due to managing his team to an additional 16 wins better then expected.

The top three in the National League are Charlie Manuel from the Philadelphia Phillies, Cecil Cooper of the Houston Astros, and Fredi Gonzalez of the Florida Marlins.

The other Florida team managed to get the most wins for the least amount of money, absolutely demolishing the impressive figure the Rays posted. Unlike the Rays, the Marlins did so while exceeding their third order wins. Additionally, Gonzalez did not have the benefit of putting out a roster of extraordinarily talented youngsters.

Cecil Cooper and the Houston Astros had one of the most underrated seasons in baseball. A team, that despite being in the top half in team spending proved to be relatively efficient with the money they did spend. The biggest factor working in Cooper's favor is the fact that his team over-achieved by more then 10 wins during the 2008 season. Those 10 wins are substantial, in that they represent the difference between a team that still had a shot up until the trade deadline, and a team without a prayer.

The Phillies Charlie Manuel had similar success to Cecil Cooper. While expectations for the Phillies were higher then they were for the Astros, Manuel provided decent punch compared to the dollars spent. His 5.2 wins above third order standings also help his case.

However, they do not help his case to be the winner, nor the runner up. Those votes will go to Fredi Gonzalez and Cecil Cooper respectively. Gonzalez just did too much with too little to ignore.


While popular opinion has it that Maddon and Pinella are the best managers in their respective leagues, popular opinion does not have a fancy chart.

2008 BBWAA National League Cy Young

"I started a joke, which started the whole world crying, but I didn't see that the joke was on me"

It's official, any sliver of credibility the BBWAA owned has been eliminated. It has been ripped to shreds, stamped on, torched, and discarded. While there is an argument to be made that this occurred a very long time ago, the writers have certainly outdone themselves this time.

The National League Cy Young should have come down to two pitchers; Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana. There is an argument that works in the favor of both pitchers. Where Lincecum was marginally more valuable-beating out Santana in WPA, Win Shares, PRC, and SNLVAR-Santana had a substantially more difficult schedule. While Lincecum is my choice, I can respect an individual who makes an intelligent and logical claim for Johan.

What I can't respect is the individual who calls for Brandon Webb to be the best pitcher in the National League. In fact, there is a legitimate argument against Webb being the best pitcher on his own team.

The BBWAA, however, found a way to further discredit the merits of post-season awards. Maybe they did so intentionally. Maybe their voting was out of protest. For whatever reason, we are stuck with a system that simplay has no value to the baseball world.

Today, the 2008 National League Cy Young Award winner was nominated. It was justly given to Tim Lincecum. While Lincecum was rewarded with 23 of 32 first place votes, for some strange reason four writers felt that Brandon Webb was the superior pitcher-hopefully we can get to the bottom of this.

Worse yet, there is a writer who left Lincecum off his ballot altogether. This only strikes a chord with me because there is one writer out of 32 who felt this way. One!

Being someone who traditionally has some obscure ways of drawing conclusions, and a skewed perspective of logic, I typically cannot argue with one person thinking outside the box. The problem is, Lincecum was clearly one of the top two pitchers in the National League this year. If he wasn't in the top two, there is no way he could justly be left off a ballot altogether. In fact, I am eager to hear what sort of skewed logic this writer came to.


While Lincecum winning the award is an impressive accomplishment, how much of it can Lincecum truly feel satisfied with, when the rest of the voting is a joke?

Brandon Webb, while an outstanding pitcher, he's probably one of the top 5 pitchers whom I would build a team around. However, he did not have the best statistical season of any other pitcher in the National League to warrant the first place votes he received. In fact, between him, Santana, Lincecum, Ryan Dempster, and Cole Hamels, he clearly had the worst statistical season of the bunch.

Thus, handing him second place votes is as much of a joke as the first place votes were (we can assume two of the four first place votes came from Arizona writers, the other two could have come from the morons who voted for Edinson Volquez for Rookie of the Year despite not being eligible for the award).

It is absolutely pathetic that Webb received runner-up votes over Johan Santana. What makes it so pathetic is the fact that the voters are going to turn to Webb's wins and winning percentage as evidence to his superiority.

I'm glad that despite all the information proving that wins and winning percentage are essentially useless statistics for pitchers there are still writers giving pitchers credit for them. I won't even go into the fact that Webb trailed Santana in every other meaningful statistic, but I think you get the point, this is embarrassing.

But let's put this into an analogy. By voting for Webb over Santana based soley on wins and winning percentage, the BBWAA are invariably handing this award to the player PLUS his team. That is, what if Webb received 2 or 3 fewer runs of support a game? Would that mean he pitched any worse?

What can we then say the Cy Young is based on. Value? If that is the case, then who was more valuable then CC Sabathia and Brad Lidge?


I think we can safely predict the American League Cy Young winner now, sorry Drunk Jays Fans.

The OLIB's 2008 NL Cy Young

In similar fashion to my American League Rookie of the Year pick, the NL Cy Young went from no-brainer, to borderline toss-up. In what was an open and shut case for Tim Lincecum, turned to a two horse race with him and Johan Santana. An impressive second half by Santana, fueled by an outstanding August/September, closed the gap that Lincecum created.

This is not to say that Lincecum fell apart in the second half, rather, to give Santana his due for an outstanding stretch run.

There was never really a question who the winner and runner-up for this award would be, as I selected Lincecum #1 and Santana #2. Where the question is raised occurs with the third best start in the National League. With 4 or 5 legitimate contenders, it took a variety of statistics to come to a conclusion of who the head of the rest of the pack would be.

Here is what I wrote for the BDD writer picks,

When I first sat down to make my picks, I wasn’t even going to look into the numbers. I figured I knew the story and didn’t need any convincing. While my opinion didn’t change after I eventually looked at the numbers, it became surprisingly close after looking at VORP, WPA, WS, PRC, and SNLVAR. Lincecum came away on top, with Santana finishing second, and fellow Canadian Ryan Dempster completing his full circle surprise season.

I’m not shocked that Dempster isn’t getting more play in the upcoming days of Free Agency, but I am shocked that he isn’t getting much love from writers on the Cy Young ballot.

I will be incredibly shocked if Dempster tops Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Cole Hamels, and Edinson Volquez despite being substantially more qualified. In fact, half-season wonders CC Sabathia and Rich Harden are likely to get just as much respect as Dempster.

Which leads to an interesting dilemma-what is the Cy Young award? Is it for the leagues best pitcher, or for the leagues most valuable pitcher? In fact, aren't these two things one in the same?

That is, could any of the aforementioned full season National League pitchers have replaced Harden and specifically, Sabathia? If the answer is no, then how can another pitcher be tabbed as better? Worse yet, this adds Brad Lidge to what was supposed to be a fairly straight forward discussion.


It is fortunate for Tim Lincecum that Johan Santana had such brutal bullpen support. Had the Mets simply been 'OK' at holding leads, Santana would have added an extra couple of wins and the Mets certainly would have found themselves in the playoffs. It would be that combination of meaningless statistics that would encourage the BBWAA to give this award to Santana.

That didn't happen, and despite what will be a fairly tight competition, the award will go to the appropriate pitcher.

Similarly, the runner-up will go to the appropriate pitcher, being Santana. Many anticipated this to be Santana's award to lose entering the season. While he didn't hurt his case, Lincecum was simply the superior pitcher and the BBWAA won't screw this one up.

Where it gets interesting is the area that I mentioned, from the third best pitcher in the National League, down to the tenth. I can't see a scenario where Lincecum and Santana don't receive the top two votes from any of the writers, however I also did not envision a scenario where Joey Votto would receive a vote over Geovanny Soto.

That being said, for argument's sake I'll stick with Lincecum and Santana collecting all of the top two votes, with a 32 writer toss-up among third place ballots. Clearly Dempster should take third place, but I imagine it will go to Sabathia or Lidge. It won't be justified, but people won't be overly disappointed.

As fans, we are fortunate that the writers must submit their ballots prior to the start of the playoffs. If not, Cole Hamel's miraculous post-season performance may have been enough to put him into the Lincecum-Santana discussion.

Nationals and Marlins Join the Trade Party

Apparently there was some action at the General Manager's meetings last week. With the news that the Athletics and Rockies are on the verge of completing a deal that will involve Matt Holliday, the Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins have agreed to a deal.

The deal will have the Washington Nationals acquire fiery lefty Scott Olsen, and left fielder Josh Willingham from the Florida Marlins for Emilio Bonifacio and one or two minor leaguers, likely to be pitcher PJ Dean and infielder Jake Smolinski.

Upon first impression, this looks like a win for the Washington Nationals, however I've never been one to call a trade in under 100 words. Let's begin with what the Nationals received:

At the point, the acquistion of Josh Willingham has got to be of secondary concern for the Nationals. That is, of course, assuming that Willingham cannot move back behind the plate (he has played behind the plate in 15 games at the Major League level). Even still, Willingham would not be much of an upgrade over Jesus Flores, giving the Nationals little reason to move him behind the plate.

This is also assuming that Nick Johnson, Wily Mo Pena, and Austin Kearns all remain with the team. The acquisition of Willingham certainly muddies this situation-as well as my WWOD.

Either way, Willingham is a fine player, and is under control for the next 3 seasons-although he is in for a pay raise, he will still be affordable.

The biggest piece of this trade for the Nationals is Scott Olsen.

Olsen has taken a substantial step back from his promising rookie season in 2006. While Olsen's strikeout rate regressed from a strong 8.27 to 5.04, his walk rate has gone from bad (3.74) to terrible (4.33) to good (3.08).

However, Olsen is young enough to continue to improve his walk rate, while potentially taking steps with his strikeout rate.

What is worrisome is the fact that Olsen's velocity dropped a fair amount this season. Granted, if a drop in velocity means throwing more strikes, it is certainly a justified adjustment.

The most valuable part of Olsen is that he is an extremely durable pitcher, having pitched in 31 or more games each of his 3 seasons in the majors. In addition to this, Olsen is entering his first arbitration season and should be affordable for the Nationals as they look to put together a Major League roster-something that the 2008 team hardly resembled.

In exchange for Olsen and Willingham, the Marlins receive salary relief-something they have always been interested in acquiring, and three young players.

The first of which, and only one of the three to be on the Major League roster before the year 2011, Emilio Bonifacio. I have writen at length about Bonifacio, and will not repeat everything that I had said in the past.

The short and sweet version; Bonifacio is a burner who lacks plate discipline. He is young enough to develope, but his ceiling is certainly Luis Castillo. If Bonifacio developes into Castillo, that would be great, but chances are he is a utility player at best, albeit a cheap one.

What the acquisition of Bonifacio does do, however, is begin the discussion of where and when Dan Uggla will be traded. After 3 straight seasons of 27 or more home runs, Uggla, entering his first year of arbitration, is bound to receive a major pay increase. It wouldn't come as a surprise for him to be making over $5M in 2009, leading to a larger increase for the 2010 season, and another for the 2011 season. In other words, he has more then played his way out of Florida's price-range and will certainly be moved at some point this offseason.

The Marlins are also acquiring 20 year old right handed pitcher PJ Dean. While Dean is at least three seasons from the Majors, his showing this year in the New York Penn League certainly did enough to put him on the prospect radar. At 6'3", Dean has the desired frame of a starting pitcher, and his early career numbers are favorable, but he is still a long ways away.

Equally as raw is the third player the Marlins are set to acquire, 19 year old middle infielder Jake Smolinski. Smolinski transitioned well from the outfield to second base, but in his second season of professional baseball, has begun to disappoint with his bat.

However, Jacob has an advanced approach at the plate, working the count well with quick hands.

The issue with Smolinski, is that he doesn't have a true position to play. Despite surprising many with his play at second base this season, his lack of athleticism will not enable him to excel at that position. Because he only a mediocre athlete, Smolinski is limited to playing in left field, if a move to the outfield is required.

The problem then is that Smolinski does not provide the pop that is traditionally expected from a corner outfielder. His development as a fielder and hitter will be interesting to watch.


While the Nationals won this deal, the Marlins did not really lose it. I am surprised that if the Marlins were actively shopping either player, that they were not capable of obtaining more. Which leads me to belief that the players they did acquire are ones that they were obviously interested in. When that is the case, it is impossible to call the team a loser.

The biggest positive to take from this move, is a payroll savings of $4M+ for the 2009 season. Another, is the evident trade of Dan Uggla, which will provide even more in salary relief.

2008 BBWAA Rookie of the Year Picks (AL & NL)

The ballots are officially in and the American and National League Rookie of the Year awards have been provided. In the American League, it is Evan Longoria, and Geovanny Soto who takes the cake in the National League.

These picks were to be expected, neither coming as a surprise to anyone. However, the BBWAA are not getting off easy here, as they did botch part of the voting.

Evan Longoria won the American League's award as an unanimous choice, collecting each of the 28 first place votes. Longoria, as the linked article states, was the only player to show up on each of the 28 ballots-which is part surprising, part disgusting.

The most second place ballots went to the Chicago White Sox infielder Alexei Ramirez. Certainly Ramirez is worthy of being on ones AL Rookie of the Year ballot, however, he clearly was not the second best rookie in the American League. Finishing third in VORP is support for that.

Worse yet, Jacoby "I fell off the table" Ellsbury, took third place. This clearly has more to do with Ellsbury being a Red Sox then it does with his actual statistical line. Keep in mind, Ellsbury essentially lost his starting job down the stretch-and entirely in the playoffs. According to Baseball Prospectus' VORP statistic, Ellsbury rated as the 6th best rookie position player in the American League. In other words, he was hardly worthy of being on anyones ballot, let alone being the third highest voted rookie.

However, the Ellsbury pick is not even the most embarrassing issue presented here. That honor belongs to the 23 writers who left Mike Aviles off their ballots altogether. To hear the explanation of any of these writers is assured to be one of the bigger jokes in recent baseball writing. There really is not an explanation for taking Ellsbury over Aviles, but even giving those 5 writers a mulligan, we still had far too many of baseballs journalists (experts in their field) ignoring the rookie that could have won the award, and at the very worst, should have finished in the top 3.


The National League, at first glance, also managed to get things right. Except, wait...What?!? Somebody actually thought that Joey Votto's 2008 season was superior to Geovanny Soto. WHO?!?

Soto eclipsed Votto in every win and value stat available. In fact, it is hardly even close in most cases. Even if we ignore position, Soto was a vastly superior first year player.


The BBWAA again proved why they have little to no credibility. While the writers did manage to pick the proper winners, the widespread failures to accurately rate the players ruins the overall value of this award. How can Evan Longoria truly feel proud of this award when the voting is so inaccurate?

Once the writers make their individual picks known, I will add further reflection. For now, I am going to assume that the writers simply forgot Mike Aviles played. However, I'm certain this mulligan will be waived once we read comments such as 'Jacoby Ellsbury stole so many bases and played for a winning team'.

Disgusting!

2008 American and National League Rookie of the Year

For some strange reason, the BBWAA decide that the Rookie of the Year awards are the least important of all the post-season awards. Given that the awards are presented together, on the first day of the awards season, rather then on individual days, as is the case with the other player awards.

In any event, the American and National League Rookie of the Year award will be presented tomorrow, and as the first post-season awards post, I will explain how things will play out here.

First, I will re-provide my top 3 candidates for each award (5 for MVP). Recalling back to my 2007 Awards,

When selecting who will win the awards, I take into account several factors. The first, is how a player performs in respect to their position. For the record, I am not going to pick a player who performed at a high level at a brutal position, but wasn't even in the top 5 or 10 in 'win' stats.

The second criteria is 'Win' stats? The Hardball Times owns a stat for this, as does Baseball Prospectus; called Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB) and Value over Replacement Player (VORP) respectively. I will reference these stats in and out of my writings, for the most part, utilizing both.

Next, I will look at exceptional play of a player. A streak, a record, or really something they did on an individual level to lift the team to higher levels. That is not to say a player from a losing team can not win an award, although admittedly, those players are at a slight disadvantage.

In addition to the aforementioned criteria, I will also include fielding, which WSAB touches on. While Adam Everett is not going to get the nod over David Ortiz, it is something to be considered at a certain level.

Another factor to consider, and one I pointed out at the end of the regular season, is a players value relative to his team. To the BBWAA, a player on a playoff caliber team is rewarded because he helped his team get over the hump. But how often is it the play of a single player that pushed a team into the playoffs? How few players are not interchangeable with another at the same position?

I'm thinking specifically of Dustin Pedroia here. Would the Red Sox be that much worse off had Ian Kinsler been their everyday second basemen?

In addition to this, we've all heard the speculation that a players play is affected based on the players around him, how about adding in a winning clubhouse? Or playing in games that matter? Fact is, it's as easy to argue that a player on a playoff caliber team was positively influenced by his surrounding cast as it is to argue that the specific player is the reason the team is as good as it is.

The second aspect of these posts will be to predict who the BBWAA will pick as their award winner. I will provide some evidence, however the majority of the reflection will occur once the awards are provided.


A couple weeks ago, I posted my AL and NL Rookie Picks as a part of a poll held at Baseball Digest Daily. Here is further analysis of those picks:

American League

At first look, Evan Longoria appears to be the clear cut favorite for AL ROY. He hit in the heart of the order for the eventual American League champions. However, upon further inspection, things begin to tighten between he and Mike Aviles.

The major argument supporting Aviles is his production relative to position. That is, Aviles' .833 OPS was over 140 points higher then the American League average production from a short stop. What makes this 140 that much more valuable is the fact that Aviles is arguably the best fielding short stop in the American League.

By comparison, third base is a substantially more productive position, where the AL average OPS is nearly 80 points higher then that of the league's average for shortstop.

Longoria, while not as superior relative to league average, still posted an OPS nearly 120 points higher then American League average. Thus, the -20 points in league average OPS that Longoria provided compared to Aviles is not significant enough to discredit the +40 points in OPS that Longoria holds over Aviles heads up.

While the fielding is still an issue to be considered, that Longoria was superior to Aviles in 3 of 5 win and value categories is reason for me to hand this award to Longoria. The following table provides the categories utilized and where one player outperformed the other:

To me, the Rookie of the Year in the American League is a two horse race. I gave my third place vote to Brad Ziegler. Ziegler's season was nothing short of phenomenal. He took over as the closer in Oakland, and despite having a low strikeout rate, coupled with a brutal strikeout to walk ratio, Ziegler managed to avoid allowing runs.

Despite a legitimate argument existing for Mike Aviles to win the ROY award, it will come as no surprise to me if he isn't even in the American League's top five among the BBWAA. With players such as Jacoby Ellsbury and Alexei Ramirez providing writer friendly statistics, such as home runs, stolen bases, and playing on playoff caliber teams, it isn't difficult to imagine Aviles being left off of many writers ballots.

Considering that two of seven BDD writers left Aviles off of their top three ballot altogether, seeing Aviles on the outside of the top five-while unjustifiable-is something I expect.

Here's how I anticipate the BBWAA writers to screw this thing up:

1. Evan Longoria - Has all the things voters look for,
2. Alexei Ramirez - Flashy, and on a playoff team,
3. Jacoby Ellsbury - Broke team record for steals by a rookie,
4. Joba Chamberlain - If healthy, could have ran away with this award, and
   
5. Denard Span - There actually isn't any rationale for him in the top 7 or 8, so he's a perfect pick for the BBWAA.

With Brad Ziegler, Armando Galarraga, Chris Davis, as well as homer picks such as Ben Francisco, and Justin Masterson, there is a chance that Aviles falls out of the top 10.

National League

By not having a substantial second half swoon, Geovanny Soto made it easy for voters to get this one right. There really is not any other player that a writer could legitimately argue for over Soto, and if a writer did in fact try to, there is an argument for that writer to lose their BBWAA membership.

Where is gets interesting is with the next 2-4 spots. In fact, by having such a solid season, Soto actually ruined what would have been a very exciting NL ROY ballot. With Joey Votto, Jair Jurrjens, Hiroki Kuroda, Kosuke Fukudome, among others, there is not another clear cut next in line.

I decided to put Votto as the second best rookie from the 2008 season in the National League. Admittedly, it is because Votto is Canadian, but statistically, I can back this argument up through utilizing Baseball Prospectus' VORP measure, where Votto puts up a mark of 34.0 to Jurrjens' 33.0. In other words, it is a toss-up.


As I previously mentioned, there are specific stats which the BBWAA prefer. One of those stats, how the players team performed. Because of this, Fukudome and Kuroda will receive an unnecessary amount of votes, however I don't feel they will crack the top 3.

The BBWAA will get this one right and take the following top 5:

1. Geovanny Soto - No more obvious of a pick league-wide,
2. Jair Jurrjens - Not missing 'significant' time helps his case,
3. Joey Votto - If the season was another month or two, he eclipses Soto,
4. Hiroki Kuroda - Not really a rookie, but the BBWAA has never cared, so why start now? and,
5. Jay Bruce - A hot start coupled with improvement during the second half, those are stats, right?

As was the case with the Gold Gloves, I will post the actual results as they become public. Reactions and reflections will also be provided, so stay tuned for those.

2008 National League Gold Gloves

The Rawlings Gold Glove awards are given to those who displayed the leagues most superior fielding, as voted on by managers and coaches-not the BBWAA as I previously mentioned. Each year there are snubs as well as votes given to players who are certainly not deserving of, and this year did not disappoint.

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus was on ESPNews' The Hot List this afternoon, and asserted that often times players are given credit for what they did with their bat. In addition to this, according to Sheehan, is a 'viewed' award as much as it statistical. He did not claim this to be an entirely accurate perspective, rather, he suggested that the best defensive player may not win an award simply due to not doing anything flashy, or having fewer opportunities.

Here's who the managers and coaches gave their awards out to for the National League this season:

C - Yadier Molina

As I mentioned in the 'Shoulda' Awards, I'm not going to go through and judge a catcher. Molina seems like a fine choice to me.

1B - Adrian Gonzalez

This is bordering on criminal. Probably the biggest mistake of the National League Gold Glove award was not handing this one to Albert Pujols, but making this worse, and nearly discrediting the worth of the Gold Gloves altogether, was giving this to Adrian Gonzalez.

By all rights, Gonzalez should win this award. He is probably the most athletic first basemen in the National League. If not the most, then second behind Derek Lee. The Fielding Bible doesn't rank Gonzalez in the top 4, while The Hardball Times ranks Gonzalez as the 10th best fielding first basemen. This was clearly all about fielding percentage, where Gonzalez ranks as the best National League first basemen (tied).

2B - Brandon Phillips

While the voters got this one wrong, it isn't as bad as the Gonzalez vote. Phillips, while a fairly strong fielder, is still a little bit worse then Chase Utley. But Phillips, like Derek Jeter, finds his way onto highlight reels all of the time and is a flashy fielder.

3B - David Wright

I can understand giving this award to Wright. Ryan Zimmerman missing nearly half the season certainly put him at a disadvantage. Wright makes more flashy plays and is on a team that more people pay attention to. If I was picking the best defensive third basemen in the National League, either one would suffice.

I wonder how much of Wright winning this award is based on his reputation?

SS - Jimmy Rollins

The voters got this one correct. Good on them. The issue, however, is that the voters are probably going to keep giving this award to Rollins based on reputation.

Here is where the Gold Glove Award has another major flaw. Voters are told to group outfielders in a single cluster. This is clearly flawed, as an outfield with the three best center fielders would not obviously be superior then an outfield with the three best fielders at their respective positions. It is what it is, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.

ESPNews aligned the outfield winners as I will list.

RF - Shane Victorino

Victorino had a phenomenal season in center this year. It was specifically phenomenal considering it was his first shot at the position. Even if we simply list the three best outfielders, there is no way to rate him ahead of Chris Young. Unless of course we are considering a players contributions with their bat.

CF - Carlos Beltran

Similar to Phillips and Wright, I am fine with giving this award to Beltran. I do not believe he is the best candidate, but he's one of the top two or three, so it's close. Playing in a big market on a big stage, he is clearly going to be seen more frequently. He is also a veteran with a reputation as an excellent fielder. Having a great bat doesn't hurt in the voters eyes.

LF - Nate McLouth

Joe Sheehan believes this was more of an honorary award, one given to McLouth to reward him for having such an underrated season and making significant strides as a player. He deserves this award almost as much as Adrian Gonzalez deserves his. To again ignore Young is insulting.

P - Greg Maddux

The crime here is that this is still being called the National Leagues Gold Glove for a Pitcher. Why not just name it after Maddux?

As I mentioned, this is an award based on looks. While Maddux fields his position as well as anyone else, he also has the most opportunities to show off his glove to voters. No one is going to argue with this selection.


With only two glaring errors and borderline mistakes, the voters did not entirely ruin the credibility of the Gold Glove Award-although they did come close.

The American League Gold Gloves will be announced tomorrow at 4 PM EST.

2008 National League 'Shoulda' Gold Gloves

The Baseball Writers of America Association traditionally botch giving out awards, none is more obvious then with the Gold Glove Awards. The BBWAA typically enjoy giving awards to fielders who are also strong hitters. In addition to that, the writers give credit to a player based on reputation and making highlight reel plays. While highlight reel plays are exciting to view, they are often the result of poor positioning, a weak arm, mediocre reaction, and/or a lack of speed. Every time Derek Jeter is in the air making an 'acrobatic' throw, imagine Jimmy Rollins making that same play, flat on his feet.

Another issue, is the use of a pointless statistic. Fielding Percentage is a subjective measure and is more a product of a players individual ability. That is, a ball that Chase Utley gets to may not be a ball that Luis Castillo can get to. Thus, if Utley gets to the ball but makes an errant throw, allowing a 'base hit', should he get punished for getting to the ball while Castillo watched the ball roll into the outfield?

Thus, I'm going to take a look at two of the most prominent defensive statistics that actually matter. Statistics which truly look at how a player fields.

The first statistic I will look at will be The Fielding Bibles plus/minus (+/-) measure. At the Fielding Bible, the authors watch every defensive play over the course of the year and figure out how many runs a player saves compared to league average. A rate of +10 would be the same as earning a win for The Hardball Times' win shares.

The second statistic I will look at will be The Hardball Times' revised zone rating (RZR). Here is THT's explanation of RZR,

Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out....To get a full picture of a player's range, you should evaluate both his Revised Zone Rating and his plays made out of zone (OOZ). You can read more about the Revised Zone Ratings in this article.

These measure's will be weighted equally to come up with an unofficial list of who should win a Gold Glove-which is to be announced later this afternoon on ESPNews.

Without further adieu, the 2008 'Shoulda' Gold Glove winners for the National League:

1B - Albert Pujols

Pujols rates as the #1 defensive first basemen by both RZR and +/-. This is an easy award to give away and furthers Pujols' legacy as one of the best baseball players of all time. The runner-up for this away is Lance Berkman who ranked just behind Joey Votto in +/-, but a fair distance ahead of him in RZR.

2B - Chase Utley

Utley more then doubles the next best second basemen in +/- , ranking just below the NL's runner-up Brandon Phillips. Utley is nearing the same echelon as Pujols as the total package, being both an elite hitter and an elite fielder. The big difference, most teams will allow their first basemen to be a mediocre fielder if he is an elite hitter. Whereas second base, the more difficult position to field, is expected to have a slick fielder, albeit with a weak bat.

3B - Ryan Zimmerman

The most difficult position to award to this point, Zimmerman rates as the 4th best third basemen according to THT's RZR, however he is the only one of THT's top 5 which made TFB's top 10. Zimmerman has always been considered a plus fielder but never given credit for such. Undergoing major surgery twice in the last year only increases how impressive of a fielder he is. The runner-up is the New York Mets David Wright.

SS - Jimmy Rollins

J-Roll rates as the National Leagues top +/- fielding short stop and number two in RZR. I imagine the BBWAA will get this right and take Rollins as he has a sound bat to compliment his slick fielding. Yunel Escobar is undervalued as a fielder, and if the Padres can find a taker for Khalil Greene, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to utilize Yunel as the center piece of a Jake Peavy trade.

LF - Matt Holliday

I am as shocked as the next person as I had always thought of Holliday as a terrible fielder. Holliday rates as the second best fielder among those who qualified in RZR and the third best fielder in +/-. The reason I am giving him the nod over Willie Harris and Connor Jackson is because of the major discrepancy in playing time. Harris is the runner-up but nearly wins the award due to making 45 out of zone (OOZ) plays in less then half the playing time of Holliday (Holliday made 50 OOZ plays).

CF - Chris Young

It is evident that Carlos Beltran has the best shot at winning this award, but Young actually rates out as the superior fielding when utilizing both statistics. Beltran leads Young by one point in +/- whereas Young leads Beltran by over 2% in RZR. A very close race and arguably a toss-up.

Cody Ross was arguably the best center fielder in the National League. That certainly comes as a surprise to me as Ross clearly looks out of position in cavernous Dolphin Stadium. What knocks him from the competition is his lack of OOZ plays and plays altogether.

RF - Randy Winn

Finishing first and second in RZR and +/- respectively has Winn at the top of the heap in the National League. It is a good thing that Winn is a solid fielder, as his bat is not overly impressive and would not be tolerated if he was below average. The runner-up goes to Brian Giles.

It is interesting to note that each of the outfielders mentioned here, come from poor hitters parks, parks that are traditionally knows for having large outfields. I am curious if these fielders are benefitting from either a fly ball friendly pitching staff, or by a more all-out style of play.


With the awards being given out later this afternoon, it will be interesting to see how much the BBWAA allow a subjective measure such as fielding percentage weigh into their respective decisions.

I left out the catching and pitching positions because each has much to do with their respective teams. For example, a catcher may struggle with throwing out runners because his pitchers do not help with the running game, and vice versa. A catchers reputation also limits who runs, and when. One way to measure such, would be to look at a team's ERA while a specific catcher is behind the dish. This, however, could also be a result of being a 'personal catcher' to a really good pitcher.

In terms of a pitchers gold glove, there are certainly pitchers that are phenomenal with the mit, but a lack of playing time, as well as being of secondary concern to a pitcher is my rationale for omitting pitchers from this list. It would be like utilizing a pitchers hitting when awarding the National League Cy Young.

2008 Award Postings

This entry will be the home of each of the 2008 Awards:

National League Gold Glove Awards Reflection

National League 'Shoulda' Gold Glove Awards

American League Gold Glove Awards Reflection

American League 'Shoulda' Gold Glove Awards


According to the BBWAA website, the remainder of the awards will be given out in the following order (dates in parenthesis).

The OLIB's American and National League Rookie of the Year Awards

American and National League Rookie of the Year (November 10)

The OLIB's National League Cy Young Award

National League Cy Young Award (November 11)

The OLIB's American and National League Manager of the Year Awards

American and National League Manager of the Year (November 12)

The OLIB's American League Cy Young Award

American League Cy Young Award (November 13)

The OLIB's National League Most Valuable Player Award

National League Most Valuable Player Award (November 17)

The OLIB's American League Most Valuable Player Award

American League Most Valuable Player Award (November 18)


I will be adding reflections when each of these awards are given out, as well as providing my awards. For now, here are the BDD Awards. Added rationale to follow.

BDD Rookie of the Year Award (AL & NL)

BDD Cy Young Award (AL & NL)

2008 Cy Young Award (AL & NL)

The next installment of the Baseball Digest Daily Writers Awards is up, this time taking a look at the Cy Young award.

In the American League I took Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee backing it up with the following rationale,

For me, this wasn’t as difficult as it looked. Entering September, I was fairly convinced that Lee would be the winner. However, an article at Baseball Prospectus (free content) led me to thinking Halladay deserves more credit then he is receiving. The theory was that Halladay had faced substantially superior offensive clubs. The evidence is substantial and enough for me to take Halladay as the American League’s best pitcher.

I am disappointed that my colleagues were intending on taking Lee as the unanimous choice for AL CY before I stepped in. While the ballot is clearly close and an argument can be made for both pitchers, backing up one's argument with wins and wins on a poor team are simply not substantial in my eyes.

However, I am glad that Francisco Rodriguez didn't get much support-although any is probably too much. The reason being, there is a legitimate argument which supports that Rodriguez wasn't even a top 2 or 3 reliever in the American League in 2008.


The National League became more of a tight race then I had initially anticipated. In fact, my research was more or less done in search of my third place pitcher. After which, Johan Santana closed the gap on Tim Lincecum and allowed justification for either pitcher at the top of one's ballot.

My rationale behind picking Lincecum over Santana was the following,

When I first sat down to make my picks, I wasn’t even going to look into the numbers. I figured I knew the story and didn’t need any convincing. While my opinion didn’t change after I eventually looked at the numbers, it became surprisingly close after looking at VORP, WPA, WS, PRC, and SNLVAR. Lincecum came away on top, with Santana finishing second, and fellow Canadian Ryan Dempster completing his full circle surprise season.

I’m not shocked that Dempster isn’t getting more play in the upcoming days of Free Agency, but I am shocked that he isn’t getting much love from writers on the Cy Young ballot.

What blows my mind is that Brandon Webb keeps getting the support he does. There is no denying he is a solid pitcher. He is a work horse and extraordinarily durable. If I'm building a team, he's probably one of about 10 pitchers that I consider building around. However, the guy simply does not put up the statistics to merit being a Cy Young candidate.


As I promised with my Rookie of the Year picks, I fully intend on putting together a more substantial post for my post-season awards. Hopefully I can wait until the Rays come back from being down 3 games to 1.

2008 Rookie of the Year (AL & NL)

Over at Baseball Digest Daily each of the writers was asked to provide a ballot for the 2008 awards. The first installment saw the writers discussing MLB's 2008 Rookie of the Year. I won't spoil how the votes shook out, but I will tell you that my first place votes went to Evan Longoria and Geovanny Soto.

No major surprise there, as I do imagine that's who the BBWAA voters will pick as well. However, while Soto wasn't a difficult pick, as I began to further examine the numbers, Mike Aviles of the Kansas City Royals made a legitimate run at Longoria. Between five win and value related statistics, Aviles beat Longoria in two, with Longoria taking three.

These statistical categories helped me make my decision, but furthered the evidence of how close these two were in performance.

I will go into further detail about these picks at a later date, for now, enjoy the work of the writers at BDD.

"What Would the Outsider Do" - Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are in uncharted territory. This is a club that, as you all know, did not miss the playoffs for 14 consecutive seasons. In 2007, the club emptied its prospect bank and brought aboard highly coveted first basemen Mark Teixeira.

Despite finishing with an 84 and 78 record, the Braves failed to make the playoffs that year, and took a substantial step backwards in 2008, falling to 72 and 90 in a very winnable National League East.

Teixeira's career with the Braves came to an end at this year's trade deadline, while things couldn't have turned out worse for the Braves and this acquisition, that is all now in hindsight.

However, looking back, we see that the Braves traded an outstanding core of prospects to the Texas Rangers, and have now come out with Casey Kotchman, Stephen Marek, and indirectly, Brett DeVall. In hindsight, we're looking at what could possibly be one of the worst trades in recent memory. A trade that parralel's the likes of Scott Kazmir to the Rays, and Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee to the Indians.

It was the desperation to make the playoffs that led Atlanta to trading away five of its best prospects, including, the top 3 as listed by Baseball America that previous winter. Unfortunately for the Braves, each of the prospects traded have continued to develop and are major reasons behind the Rangers having such a stocked farm system.

This trade also marked what is bound to be a lengthy down time for the Braves. While the farm system is replenishing itself with two excellent drafts, many of the players are still at least 2 years away. When one looks at what the Braves have at the Major League level, it becomes clear that they are in for a very long road at rebuilding.

In addition to the Teixeira 'blunder', the Braves have been rather misfortunate staying healthy. Pitchers Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Tim Hudson, and John Smoltz all missed substantial time in 2008 due to injuries. Of which, Hudson and Smoltz's injuries will carry over to the 2009 season, further handcuffing this franchise.

There is, however, a silver lining for the 2009 Braves. The club has an estimated $45M in available cash resources, that money could make Atlanta into a big player this offseason. It wouldn't hurt to take $10-15M of that money, and look at signing Kelly Johnson, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Gonzalez, and Yunel Escobar to contract extensions. It may be a little early on Jurrjens and Escobar, but the time is certainly now for Johnson and Gonzalez.

Thus, with a developing system, and a surplus of cash, I will begin looking at what the Braves should, and should not do this offseason.

What the Braves don't need:

Infield help. The Braves have one of the best hitting infields in all of baseball. In addition to this, they have some substantial Major League ready depth and a good amount of high upside Minor Leaguers. Clearly if there is a way to cheaply upgrade any of their infield positions, the Braves should jump at that, but that would certainly be near the bottom of their wish list.

Relief pitching. This isn't a bad situation to have despite what is a fairly nice free agent relief core. Much of this is dependent on John Smoltz resigning and being ready, as well as Soriano's availability. Between those two, and Gonzalez, the Braves should have no problem finishing games. In addition to some nice depth at the Major League level, there are a couple arms in the system that could make their debut in 2009-Tyler Wilson and Luis Valdez.

Prospects. Everyone can always use prospects, but the Braves aren't in a position where they need to sell, simply to acquire youth. In fact, there is an argument to be made where the Braves may look to sell, simply to open up spots for their youth.

What the Braves need:

Pitching! Although, the club has a handful of very attractive and two of which could certainly be ready for Major League action by June of this season. Righty Tommy Hanson is a name everyone will all soon become familiar with, as he will be in the center of any trade discussions the Braves enter this offseason. Kristopher Medlen is another prospect that is fairly close to beign Major League ready. Although at this point, I'm not certain if he projects out as a starter or reliever.

So what do the Braves do here? For starters, I don't advocate signing CC Sabathia. He will simply cost too much for too long. I'm even in the minority that aren't worried about Sabathia's long term health and I would stay away from him.

Ben Sheets isn't a bad idea, but my worry is that he comes at a high cost despite his current unknown injury status, so I'll steer clear of him for now. Oliver Perez? The walks frighten me. Randy Wolf? He's a beneficiary of home ballparks.

How about Ryan Dempster? While he is 32 years old, he has as many Major League innings on his arm as the average 30 year old. Four years out of the bullpen helped harness that innings total. Dempster would also be a nice replacement for Tim Hudson, who is all but done as a Brave. Would 4 years at $12M work for Dempster?

In addition to Dempster, I would look at signing a pitcher that would accept a minor league assignment, maybe Matt Clement fits the bill? Someone who is looking to jump-start their career. There are plenty of these types of pitchers that are more organizational depth then an arm that is heavily relied on.

Outfield help! There are a few options on the big league roster, however, those players are beginning to look like quad A type players and 4th/5th outfielders then everyday players. With three highly touted prospects, and Jeff Francouer at the Major League level, its hardly a position that requires a long term solution, thus, a player such as Adam Dunn, and his presumed 5+ year contract demand is a guy the Braves should avoid.

Any trade posibilities? Coco Crisp wouldn't be a bad idea, but I doubt the Sox do that trade for anything less then Mike Gonzalez. What about Eric Byrnes of the Diamondbacks? Health permitting of course, however, without an obvious spot in the lineup for Byrnes, the DBacks may be happy to simply be free of Byrnes' contract.

The Braves could package Martin Prado (who could start for Arizona) and Jeff Locke. That's a little on the cheap side, but I'm banking that the Diamondbacks would be happy with the salary relief as well as adding two youngsters to what is looking like a dreadful system. If they demanded Lillibridge, that would just mean a lesser pitching prospect-which might be preferrable.

Chris Shelton, recently became a free agent. If the right handed hitter has any ability to play a position other then first base, I'd bring him aboard giving him hacks against left handed pitchers once or twice a week.

A lot of writing with very few additions. I do, however, feel as though these minor changes would mean big things for the Braves. Not 'playoff' big, but at least some direction, which is something they ended the 2008 season without. Here's how the Opening Day hitters would look:

SS - Y. Escobar
2B - K. Johnson
3B - C. Jones
C - B. McCann
1B - C. Kotchman
CF - E. Byrnes
RF - J. Francouer
LF - J. Anderson/M. Diaz

Not a lot of changes here and potentially the only lineup with it's infield as the first five, and subsequently strongest hitters on the team. The big issues with this lineup, development and a return to form. Escobar, Johnson, and McCann all need to continue their development, Kotchman needs to take some major steps forward, and Byrnes and Francouer have to prove they can return to the form that made them solid Major Leagues during the 2006 and 2007 seasons.

This lineup isn't incredibly different then the one that right around league average in 2008. The improvements I expect do not seem incredibly unrealistic, so the loss of Teixeira, while it will be felt, won't completely ruin this team.

The bench does not offer much promise, with Clint Sammons, Chris Shelton, Omar Infante, Brent Lillibridge, and the remaining half of the Anderson/Diaz platoon. However, it also leaves the door open for some almost ready prospects to step in in the case of an injury or underperformances.

The rotation could very well be a Drekyl and Hyde situation. The top two will form a very solid duo, while the next three will be obvious question marks. Here's how I would put together the 2009 Braves rotation:

R. Dempster
J. Jurrjens
J. Campillo
JJ Reyes
J. Parr

Even with Ryan Dempster, CC Sabathia, or Jake Peavy, this Braves rotation is not pretty. It is relying on Jurrjens and Campillo to show little to no regression. It is relying on Reyes and Parr to live up to at least some of their potential. If anything goes wrong, the Braves are not only in for a long season, but a very ugly one!

Even with Hanson and Medlen nearly ready, the Braves must keep their fingers crossed that their misfortune from the 2008 season does not carry over into 2009.

Looking at the bullpen and rotation, as well as a couple of the arms that are nearly ready in the Minors, it might be a good idea for the Braves to shop Gonzalez if they can't come to terms on a deal with him. Possibly the Braves could move Lillibridge and Locke to the Pirate for Paul Maholm and give the Gonzalez to the Sox for Crisp trade a try. Their bullpen would take a hit, but not one they couldn't withstand.

However, I would prefer to try to extend Gonzalez and work on his back up plan if that doesn't work. So here's how the bullpen shakes out with Gonzalez:

CL - M. Gonzalez
SU - J. Smoltz
RP - R. Soriano
RP - M. Acosta
RP - B. Carlyle
LR - J. Bennett

The major issue here is health. If Soriano and Smoltz are not healthy and cannot pitch, or are ineffective, the Braves bullpen will look drastically worse. However, if that is the case, Gonzalez is on his way out, and the bullpen's youth movement will begin with the infiltration of the aforementioned Wilson, Valdez, and Marek.


Playing GM is typically an enjoyable task. Doing so has one looking deep into a clubs farm system attempting to build the best team for the near and short term. I am typically a big picture guy and would be fine losing 4 out of 5 years if it meant that the 5th year was going to be a wild success. The problem with baseball, however, is that everything needs to work out perfectly in order for that 5th season to be successful. The Braves went into the 2008 season with what looked like a very solid team, a possible playoff team. 6 months later, a handful of major injuries, and a major trade has the team way on the outside looking in.

For Braves fans, another year or two of looking from the outside is going to have to be tolerable. Hopefully 2011 can be a season in which the Braves give Chipper another championship to add to his Hall of Fame resume.

In the meantime, who is the next Chipper? Who am I looking out for in 2009 and beyond? Frederick Freeman and Jason Heyward are the Braves two cornerstone offensive prospects, essentially everyone knows about them. Tyler Flowers posted another quality season in the minors to add reason to believe in his future.

The hitters I will be keeping a close eye on are soon-to-be 23 year old second basemen Travis Jones. While playing at a relatively low level compared to his age, Jones has posted a strikeout to walk ratio that simply cannot be ignored. The power Jones has displayed is also a positive from a future middle infielder.

Third basemen Eric Campbell also makes my watch list after posting an equally as impressive strikeout to walk ratio coupled with a solid power stroke. His isolated power (ISO) is similar to that of Edwin Encarnacion a of the Cincinatti Reds and Mark Reynolds of the Arizona Diamondbacks. If the power continues as well as Campbell's sound eye, developing into one of those two hitters is not a stretch.

Lastly, Erik Cordier. The 22 year old has what is described as a plus fastball, and a plus plus change. Erik also has a solid curveball that he has struggled to control this season. Keep in mind, however, that the kid is coming back from Tommy John surgery. 2009 should be the season where we see Cordier put it all together and vault up the pitching prospects list.

Another guy to watch, 17 year old Julio Teheran. While still about 3 or 4 years from the Majors, Teheran is a guy to keep your eyes open for.

FYI, I didn't 'forget' Schafer, Ka'aihue, or Hernandez, they are just a little below the players I mentioned.

Up Next - Oakland Athletics (what was Mark Ellis thinking?!?)