Curiosity Kills Something

Right, it's playoff time and I'm making a quick post about a single-A catcher, deal with it. I made my Division Series picks at the final hour over on my twitter page (yea, I "tweet") and also promised for a post that evening - best unemployed writer, ever!

Anyways, there has been a fair amount of negative things written about Nationals catching prospect Derek Norris. Here are comments by two of the industries most well-known prospect authors.

• Kevin Goldstein stated, "[Norris] became an on-base machine with little power" while giving him a mulligan due to injuries (I'll touch on these later).
• Jason Gray wrote, "Norris will look to rebound from a subpar season in the Carolina League, where he hit .235 and slugged just .419."

Truth be told, I actually thought there was more negative press about the 21 year old. However, we still have two authors who walked away unimpressed with the power that Norris displayed in 2010.

Quick explanation. Keith Law wrote in a recent chat transcript that it isn't uncommon for hitters to take a year to a year and a half to recover their power stroke after a hamate injury. I have read that similar power sapping can occur to wrist injuries. The hamate bone is, from my non-medical opinion, a part of the wrist, and as such, Derek Norris' power sapping should not have been too much of a surprise.

Norris also suffered a minor concussion when he was hit in the head by a "96mph fastball". Which Norris admitted took him a fair amount of plate appearances to bounce back from, something his month-by-month statistics show as this was the only full month where Norris posted an OPS under .830 (keep this number in mind for later). Even his playoff-shortened month of September had Norris posting an OPS of .865 (if my math is correct).

Of course we don't want to altogether eliminate Norris' month of June, but we can see that something might not have been right that month, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that it had to do with having just taken a fastball off the head.

Neither of which is the point. The point here is that Norris didn't really have that bad of a season. In fact, his power numbers as is would suffice in the big leagues.

Consider where he would stand with those numbers at the show. These numbers I am speaking of are the end of season line of an .838 OPS and an ISO of .184.

Among catchers with 390 plate appearances (Norris had 387) there are 20 qualified catchers, five of whom posted an OPS higher then Norris' .838, while six put up an ISO over Norris' .184.

In other words, if Norris' numbers translated cleanly to major league baseball, he suffered a serious hand injury, and a concussion, we're looking at a top 5 or 6 hitting catcher in baseball. Keep in mind Norris is also putting in a conscious effort to being a better defensive catcher, something we all know a guy like Jorge Posada could care less about.


Derek Norris is one of my favorite prospects and should be one of yours as well. Keep his name in mind over the next 20 months or so, because he'll be making a splash in Washington while Stephen Strasberg is making a push for his first Cy Young award.


Quick question, is the catcher position getting "deep"? There are a fair amount of highly regarded youngsters that are already in the majors, and we should see another handful or so in the next year.

Rule V Draft Primer

Tomorrow marks MLB's Rule V draft, a draft where unprotected players can be had by any team for a fee and a roster spot. Of course, teams do a good job at protecting their most valuable assets, there are players who slip through the cracks, most notably being Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton in recent years.

That is, players signed at age 19 or older have 3 years of minor league eligibility before they must be added to a team's 40-man roster. If they are not added to the roster before this time, they will be eligible for the Rule V draft. Similarly, players signed at age 18 or younger with 4 years of minor league service become eligible for the draft if not added to a teams 40 man roster.

Another caveat in the rules, if a player is selected, he must stay on the teams 25-man roster for a full year after being selected. If he is left off the roster for one reason or another, the player will be returned to his original club-a la Matt Whitney, now with the Washington Nationals.

Typically, 'toolsy' middle infielders or left handed pitchers are the ones to be selected in the draft. The thinking is that a young, high upside middle infielder can, at worst, be a defensive replacement for a year, then be returned to the minors for another year or two of seasoning. The same with a left handed pitcher, who can be used in situational roles, as the Twins did with Johan Santana at first.

Over at Baseball America, a complete listing of all the players available for the Rule V draft is posted. It is a ridiculously long list, one that I had a tough time believing. While very few will go name by name through the list, it would have been helpful had BA gotten an intern to go through the list linking every player to at least their MiLB.com player profile page. First Inning has a tool for such, unfortunately it did not work-or fortunately for my desire to sleep.

I did, however go through the list searching out all of the players aged 21 and under. I will go over my findings in a moment.

While there is unlikely to be another Santana or Hamilton in this years draft, there are a handful of very intriguing young players. Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors highlights some of the players that are most likely to be selected in the draft, we're talking predominantly ex-top prospects who simply did not work and have run out of time with their respective clubs.

From that list, there are three players that specifically stick out to me. Those being Chuck Lofgren from the Cleveland Indians, Donald Veal from the Chicago Cubs, and Eduardo Morlan from the Tampa Bay Rays.

After a breakout season in 2006, Chuck Lofgren took a minor step back after being promoted to double A the following year as a 21 year old. While his numbers were not terrible in 2007, they were never good enough to warrant serious consideration for promotion. The Indians again started Lofgren in double A for the 2008 with the expectations that he would at least make a splash in triple A, if not making the big league club at some point.

Obviously this never happened as Lofgren's control-which was never a strength to begin with-took a further step back. While Lofgren has the stuff and the body that makes scouts drool, he also is a continual source of frustration. A team will certainly take a look at him at the back end of their bullpen hoping to iron out any mechanical flaws. I still really like Lofgren and think leaving him unprotected was a terrible decision-at least David Dellucci is still in town.

Donald Veal was once an untouchable prospect.Veal is a straight up power pitcher with a power pitchers body. The left hander sits in the low 90s but can touch 96 on occassion. His delivery could be tinkered with, but in all, Veal could very well be a change of scenary pitcher. The fact is, most teams are currently running out worse pitchers with the fifth spot in their rotation.

The most promising player is Eduardo Morlan.Received from the Twins as part of the Garza for Young deal, Morlan can presumably be owned for $50,000 and then stashed on the disabled list for much of 2009 season. While not technically injured, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Morlan lost 3-5mph off his fastball this season and took a significant step back from 2007.

While 2008 was a fine season by anyones standards, it was certainly an off year for Morlan who saw his strikeout per nine drop from over 12.00 down to 8.62. Morlan managed to put up a decent walk rate, the loss in velocity sends up some serious red flags. That said, I'd be willing to take a shot at the 22 year old giant.

Another interesting prospect comes in the form of wooden-shoe wearing Loek Van Mil. Van Mil is a 7'1" dutch right hander who reaches 97mph on his fastball. Control has been an issue for the 24 year old, but considering how raw the prospect is, he may be worth bringing into Spring Training to see what he's got.

Also stealing headlines is Indians first basemen, Jordan Brown. Brown could probably be an alright bench player, but unfortunately the hopes of him developing into a legitimate power hitter are long gone. Armed with a stellar eye at the plate, Brown will be picked with one of the first few spots in the draft and owned the duration of the 2009 season.


As I mentioned, I took a look at the class of Rule V eligible players aged 21 and under. My thinking was that these players are young enough where a season of cage work and instruction may actually improve their long term futures. Unfortunately, this theory has not worked out in the past, as many high ceiling youngsters have been taken, only to fall on their faces after not hitting for a full year.

Of my list of 20 players whom I saw fit to being drafted, here are my top 5:

Edgar Osuna - 21 years old - Left Handed - Starting/Relief Pitcher - Atlanta Braves

Osuna has some phenomenal statistics, starting with a 9.69 strikeout per nine and a walk rate on the low end of the spectrum. While he took a step back in his advancement from rookie ball to A ball, we're talking a kid with a fair amount of potential.

I can't find much regarding Osuna's stuff except that he has a changeup which he uses as an out pitch. John Sickels recently rated him as a C+ prospect calling him a 'sleeper'.

Luis Ortega - 21 years old - Right Handed - Starting Pitcher - Washington Nationals

How Ortega's season has gone unnoticed in a weak Nationals farm system is beyond me. Nevertheless, the 21 year old put up strong numbers against inferior competition during the Dominican Summer Leagues. Ortega struck out more then a batter an inning while maintaining an incredible walk rate.

Without accurate scouting reports teams will certainly shy away from this player. However, if his stuff pans out, he certainly could be the next Joakim Soria.

Luis Sumoza - 20 years old - Bats and Throws Right - Outfield - Atlanta Braves

The second Brave to make this list, Sumoza is an outfielder with a boat load of power. Despite having only a few hacks above low A ball, Sumoza is a player that I would give a long look at, potentially giving him the occasional platoon-like at bats. At age 20, his development may stunt, but better stunted in my system then growing in another.

Ivan Nova - 22 years old - Right Handed - Starting Pitcher - New York Yankees

Nova entered the 2008 season ranking as the #18 prospect in the Yankees organization. Considering the incredible strides Nova took while moving up a level, the kid seems more then poised for a breakout season.

In 2008, Nova saw his strikeout rate jump from 4.89 to 6.60. While only a marginal amount, his base on balls dropped as well.

Adrian Aviles - 19 years old - Bats and Throws Left - Outfielder - Los Angeles Dodgers

Adrian hasn't done anything special. He has performed at a league average rate against equally as young competition. However, Aviles is the youngest player on this list and could easily be the cheapest draft pick a team could land.


While there are a few more players I would strongly consider picking up, these are the top 5. None of these players are likely to find their way on a Major League roster this coming season, so it will be fun to see how each player developes with their current ballclubs in 2009. It will be interesting to see who, if any, crack top prospect lists entering the 2010 season.

Enjoy the draft tomorrow.

Rebuilding the International Way

The Hot Stove League has hit a lull, the big name free agents are still jockeying for the best possible offer, and many of the trade rumors have cooled for now. The Winter Meetings, being held in Las Vegas beginning December 8th, is where most of that action will occur.

However, some of the best long term moves have been made in recent days, and they also haven't involved players with household names in North America.

On Monday, it was confirmed that the Pittsburgh Pirates had signed Indian contest winners 20-year-old right-hander Dinesh Patel and 19-year-old southpaw Rinku Singh. This is big news for a team that had typically been quiet signing international free agents. Even more important is the fact that Neal Huntington has put another stamp on the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving this franchise some legitimate hope.

The two youngsters have spent the better part of the last year learning how to pitch under the tutelage of the pitching coach from the University of Southern California. The last year has seen the two Indian pitchers gradually learn the nuances of the game, as well as American culture.

According to a report from MLB.com,

When it comes to the scouting reports, the 6-foot-2 Singh throws 89-90 mph and has a split-finger changeup pitch. The 5-foot-11 Patel throws a circle change and can reach 91-92 mph with his heater.

Not bad for two young arms that are just learning how to throw a baseball.

Further reports from EWC.com,

Dinesh Patel, RHP, 5′10/185

Aaron: Definitely the more polished of the two. Strong upper body, but the legs are a little thin. Throws from the stretch and starts in a crouched position. Nice tempo — quick, but not hurried. Leg comes in high and he’s very aggressive to the plate. Call it a 3/4 arm angle. Has a very smooth and natural-looking delivery for someone who had never played baseball before last year.

Fastball is 84-85 and touches 87 with some tail down and in on right-handed batters, showing occasional sink. Delivery looks repeatable, but his release point is a little inconsistent, which will create command issues until he sorts it out. Due to his lack of height, he doesn’t get great plane but nice movement on the fastball can compensate for it. The ball doesn’t come out of his hand as easily as I’d like, but I he gets good extension on his follow-through. Nice aggressive finish.

Slider is 77-79. Doesn’t always get a lot of depth, but, again, like everything else with both these players, you have to remember Patel has been playing baseball for a friggin’ year. With that in mind the slider looks like it has the possibility of developing into a useful secondary pitch.

He looks polished and I find that somewhat shocking. It’s difficult to project what Patel might become or if he’s got the talent to be a pitcher in the majors, but I will say I don’t think this is some gimick signing. There’s something there.

Rinku Singh, LHP, 6′2, 185 lbs.

Jackson: Ringku Singh is clearly the less polished of the two prospects and is more of a project, likely a more boom-or-bust type pitcher than his counterpart Dinesh Patel. He has poor command at this point and gives his bullpen catcher headaches, frequently losing his grip on the ball and struggling to find his form.

However, at 6’2 185, the ceiling is there and he’s clearly an athlete. He’s got long arms and legs, a nice, strong high leg kick and overall shows strength and flexibility in his unpolished delivery. He throws from a ¾ arm slot, bringing his arm way down below his waist and then letting go with a sort of catapault-like delivery where he pushes the ball a bit. He struggles to repeat his form, especially with the lower half, and his follow through needs a lot of work. His arm speed is average at best and he relies on leverage to generate velocity.

Singh’s FB comes in 79-83 MPH, with a slow moving curve that ranges from 67-72. He currently lacks a real feel for the breaking pitch and his curve has little bite to it.

As the authors stress, the two players are extremely advanced for the amount of baseball they have played. Another thing to keep in mind is that they have received training from a world class instructor, the pitchers haven't had years of little league ball to develop bad habits, or throw too many breaking balls with poor form.

In other words, the Pirates picked up two high ceiling pitchers that they can mold however they see fit. This is a big move for baseball's most hapless franchise, one, that as I mentioned, has to provide hope for fans of this ballclub.

Which leads me to wonder if people consider moves in November when awarding their Executive of the Year award. While this move may not have an immediate impact on the Pirates, it certainly improves them for the long term, as well as opening the doors to the franchise entering the international market more aggressively.


This more aggressive approach even led Huntington to sending a scout to check in with Junichi Tazawa-only to find out that Tazawa's price tag would be out of the reaches of this small market club.

If you recall, the hype surrounding Tazawa began at the end of October when he went unselected (as per request) in Japan's entry draft. At this point, I suggested a Major League team blow away the competition and offer Tazawa a Major League contract of $10M a year for 5 of 6 years.

Tazawa has Major League stuff, he has the control to be a quality forth or fifth stater right now. While ten million may be a little steep to pay for an end of the rotation starter, it is a much wiser investment then bringing in a Jon Garland. Not to mention the international dividends from adding a Japanese player, the same dividends that has a report suggesting that Tazawa will reportedly sign with the Boston Red Sox.

With Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima already in New England and the Red Sox in the midst of building a dynasty-like organization, Tazawa does not have a particularly difficult decision to make, all else being equal.

If the Sox sign Tazawa for a sum under eight million dollars, it will have to be considered a failure on the part of the other Major League executives. While the Sox have as much money to spend as anyone, they also have the aforementioned advantage of Dice-K and Okajima. Thus, if a team truly wanted Tazawa, they would have to outright buy him.

White Sox Snag Dayan Viciedo

Today, the Chicago White Sox announced the signing of 19 year old Cuban Dayan Viciedo. Viciedo, a third basemen, signed a Major League deal worth $11M. Obviously having Alexei Ramirez and Jose Contreras, not to mention a Latin American manager, helped in the signing of this promising young player.

According to Baseball America (free content), "Viciedo has excellent power and hitting ability..." There was concern, according to the article, that Viciedo does not have much athleticism and his body could quickly begin to detriorate-meaning, he would get fat.

Viciedo has been compared by a power hitting corner infield prospect Angel Villalona, of the San Francisco Giants. Villalona, for those of you who don't know, is one of the best prospects in all of baseball. Playing the in the 2008 season predominantly as a 17 year old (ie. as a high school senior), Villalona slugged 17 home runs, en route to a .726 OPS against A ball players (predominantly 20 and 21 year olds). In other words, some outstanding praise.

Another report suggested that had Viciedo been eligible for the 2008 Rule IV Draft, he would have almost certainly been a first round selection, despite the concern that he becomes the next Kendry Morales, lacking the upside of Villalona. To be fair, that shouldn't deminish the praise one provides for Viciedo as Morales still has a great deal of potential.


In all, this is an outstanding move by the White Sox. They utilized the players on their roster in ways not commonly seen among Major League Baseball. Viciedo will easily be one of the White Sox top 3 or 4 prospects, and if there is no worry about adjusting to life in North America, Viciedo could start the season at Chicago's Double A affiliate in Birmingham. It is more likely that the Sox start him with a lesser assignment in the South Atlantic League (Single A ball).

Adam Miller Watch - An Update

Once Adam Miller's injury had been rediagnosed as a hole in his skin, which could have led to major infection issues, and it was thus surgery was required. This is said to be the same injury that Miller suffered during the Arizona Fall League, however it clearly went in the worst direction possible.

There hasn't been a lot of information released to date on the injury or Miller's recovery from it. But at the point of surgery, Miller was said to be out of pitching related activities for 8 weeks, which we are rapidly approaching.

A week ago, Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus, briefly mentioned Adam Wainwright's injured pulley tendon. Although this is a slightly different injury, where surgery was not required to reattach the tendon, we can use some of the information regarding Wainwright to let us know what's going on with Miller-which undeniably will go with substantially less fan fare, the result of being an oft-injury minor leaguer, and pitching for the small market, and losing, Indians team.

Understand that Miller will presumably take longer to return from this injury. Not only because he underwent surgery, but also because the Indians are in a position to be extra careful with their prized pitching prospect. Additionally, Wainwright is vital to the Redbirds making noise in down the stretch.

With that understood, over the weekend, reports are suggesting that Wainwright is about a week from throwing off of a mound. At which point, Wainwright would be between two and four weeks from returning to the rotation, dependent on how quickly the Cardinals need him in the rotation-although it wouldn't surprise me to see him work out of the bullpen.

Altogether, that is about nine to ten weeks that Wainwright would have been on the shelf. This, with a throwing program that could be relatively vigorous, and began in the middle of July.

All that being understood, I figure to hear that Miller has begun throwing from a short distance at the Indians Spring Training facility (whether it be the new one, or old one I couldn't even guess). At which point, it would probably be another three weeks before Miller was throwing off of a mound, and a total of five weeks before he faces live hitters. At best, Miller could be pitching in a game situation by September 1st.

With how the Indians are playing, it wouldn't surprise me to see them try him in the bullpen once the rosters expand in September. Either that, or for Miller to get a couple of starts, simply to build up his arm for the following season, where he will be expected to contribute to the rotation.


As always, I am looking for information regarding this injury. In a recent Hey Hoynsie at the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Paul Hoynes guessed that the next time Indians fans will get to see Miller pitch, will be during the Arizona Instructional League.

Trade Speculator - Hello LaPorta! - Part III

It's official, Matt LaPorta is now an Indian. Along with LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and a player to be named later (PTBNL) were traded from Milwaukee to Cleveland for CC Sabathia. My initial reaction is, 'great job Shapiro', despite not naming any one of the four prospects that I was looking forward to seeing don Chief Wahoo.

The trade is being compared to the last time Cleveland traded an ace, back in 2002 when Bartolo Colon was moved to the Expos. During the Indians press conference, Shapiro did his best to shoot down that speculation, citing the unique situation with the Expos and a changing environment in baseball in general.

Shapiro additionally stated that the trade timing was vital. He stated,

Two of (the teams) clearly stated, that the player had more value to them now. That they may not be in it at this level, or may not be in it at all in two or three weeks.

It will be interesting to hear the rumors of who was offered by other teams, but for now, let's reflect on the trade as is. It will also be of interest to see what other trades occur, be it AJ Burnett, Erik Bedard, or a move that is from left field.

The Brewers landed the best available pitcher, which immediately makes them look good. The keystone of the trade was a player whom the front office was not sure where he would play. Between Fielder, Braun, and Hart, the positions LaPorta is capable of playing were filled for what appears to be long term.

That said, CC Sabathia will come in, and give Milwaukee a legitimate 1-2 punch atop their rotation. If Sheets can remain healthy, this is arguably the top pair in all of baseball (although I am admittedly biased). Even still, Sabathia provides insurance in the event that Sheets does go down with an injury. This also adds some variety to a fairly righty-heavy rotation.

Clearly there cannot be enough said about Sabathia. He is an outstanding hurler who will eat innings and if he continues on his current roll, will absolutely shred apart the National League. Playing in what is a fairly neutral park also will not hurt Sabathia's production.

This deal also makes sense for the Brewers as they have been outstanding at drafting lately, and even if they are unable to resign Sabathia, the picks they will receive will restock the club. The additional revenue from a legitimate post season push, and potential birth will also help this rebuilt franchise.

Sitting only 3.5 games behind the Cubs for first, the Brewers are legitimate contenders in the terrible National League. Some improvements from underachieving players and a trade to help out the bullpen, and this team should be the National Leagues representative in the World Series.

In return for the big man, Shapiro and the Indians grabbed one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball as well as two, possibly three sound prospects.

Matt LaPorta is a position-less power hitter who has zoomed through the minors, rapidly reaching Double A. He was drafted in the first round of 2007 and in 108 minor league games, LaPorta has quickly adjusted to swinging wood, hitting 31 home runs. At 23 years old, LaPorta is clearly one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

LaPorta's stock entering the draft was obviously high. He was drafted in the 14th round of the 2006 draft by the Boston Red Sox, after what is being called an 'injury riddled junior year'. Obviously it was a wise decision as LaPorta ended up being drafted nearly 400 picks earlier by the Brewers. Interestingly, LaPorta was still viewed as a first round pick in 2006.

Kevin Goldstein rated LaPorta as the #15 prospect entering the 2007 draft, citing his outstanding senior season as the reason why. Goldstein called notice to LaPorta's 20 home runs in 169 at bats, coupled with 16 strikeouts. As a side note, home run to strikeout ratio is definitely an underutilized statistic. All that being said, LaPorta was tabbed as the "arguably the best pure hitter in the draft".

The scouting report on LaPorta at the time stated,

LaPorta has as much power as any bat, especially from the college ranks, in this draft class. He's got power to all fields and can hit the ball out of any ballpark with any kind of bat.

And,

He may never win a gold glove, but he's been OK at first defensively this year....Unless someone thinks he can play another position -- not a common belief -- LaPorta is limited to first base or DH duties in the future.

Nobody is going to argue that LaPorta's defensive abilities are minimal at best. But the best claim appears courtesy of Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein who reminds readers that LaPorta has made an alarmingly low amount of put outs this season. Thus asserting that LaPorta's range/awareness are minimal. Welcome to the American League kid!

Despite the defensive issues, LaPorta was tabbed as not needing a lot of time in the minors. This is good news for the Indians who could use LaPorta's power sooner, rather then later.

It is probably a good idea that the Brewers traded Zach Jackson, as his existence within the organization would have led to a lot of confusion with Zach Johnson. Both are young lefty pitchers, the one being a first round pick, the other being around to confuse the accounting department.

Zach Jackson began his professional career with an outstanding start in the Blue Jays minor league system. During his first season of pro ball, he went from High A to Triple A. This was clearly a mistake by the Jays as Jackson should have come along much slower. The club ended up trading him after his first season to the Brewers in the Lyle Overbay trade.

The Brewers didn't do Jackson any favors, keeping him at Triple A as a struggling 23 year old. This damage has been particularly noted as Jackson's career high in innings pitched stands at under 170, during his age 24 season in 2007.

John Sickels rated Jackson as a B prospect for his first season in the Brewers system. A nice grade for such a young pitcher, but that grade has dropped to a C grade entering this season.

Jackson gives the Indians a major league ready left handed pitcher, but essentially nothing else. Being predominantly used out of the bullpen this season, it will be interesting to see what the Indians have in mind with Jackson. Obviously Shapiro did his homework, let's see if he was right.

Young righty reliever Robert Bryson has taken a step back during his age 20 season, however has still been effective. Sickels rated Bryson as a C+ prospect this season, although I'm not certain if that is more reflective of Sickels opinion on 19 year old relievers, or on a purely stuff analysis.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus rated Bryson as the 10th best prospect in the Brewers organization. Here is what Goldstein wrote about Bryson entering this season,

Year In Review: A $300,000 draft-and-follow from the gambit's last season in existence, Bryson looked to be worth every penny in his pro debut.
The Good: Bryson offers plenty to dream on. He has strong mechanics with a good leg drive and quick, fluid arm action, which allows him to pound the strike zone with 91-94 mph fastballs while occasionally hitting 96 when he rears back for something extra. He shows some feel for a slider, and seems to bring his entire game a step forward in pressure situations.
The Bad: Because he's from Delaware and has just one year of junior college experience, Bryson is pretty unrefined. He needs to find much greater consistency with his breaking ball, and his changeup is rudimentary, which gives him problems against left-handed hitters. More than anything else, he just needs innings. He has a stocky build, and might need to watch his conditioning down the road.
Fun Fact: In Bryson's final start for Seminola College, he struck out 12 over eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits–-while throwing 132 pitches.
Perfect World Projection: Bryson's ceiling is considerably high, but he's also far from it.
Timetable: Bryson will make his highly-anticipated full-season debut at Low-A.

The gamble certainly has paid off for the Brewers, although I wonder what they saw his long term role as. Shapiro tabbed him as a 'reliever', but Bryson appears to be spending a decent amount of time logging long innings. Overall, it feels as if Bryson is a lot like the Indians' Jensen Lewis, which isn't a bad thing at all.

Lastly, the PTBNL, apparently this was a vital part of the trade and it will be interesting to see who the player is. Shapiro is quoted as saying, "the deal doesn't get done without the" PTBNL. Typically teams are provided with a list of players whom they can scout slightly closer and pick a player from that list. The Indians apparently have until the end of the season to make their decision, although from the sounds of things, the decision is already made. Chances are, the player is playing at a low level of the minors, and Shapiro wants to get a closer look at him.

That being the case, two of the four players I mentioned previously would still be in play. Braddock, a personal favorite of mine, and Frerichs, a player whom intrigues me to a great extent. As a side note, I think the Brewers have corned the market on players named 'Zach', wow!

Clearly this was the best trade on the table, and as I mentioned, a trade Shapiro HAD to pull the trigger on. Waiting, could have given the Brewers cold feet, or could have resulted in a Sabathia injury. In fact, a solid Tribe winning streak would have made it difficult for Shapiro to pull the trigger on this deal.

However, during the press conference, Shapiro discussed why he choose to trade Sabathia rather then hold him on for draft picks. He states that between the expected time frame of a drafted player (3-5 years) as well as development were important factors. Shapiro claims that even a player moving up to High A ball is far ahead of player to be drafted next season.


As an Indians fan, I love this trade. I feel as though there really isn't a winner or a loser. The Brewers should be able to replace LaPorta, Bryson, and the PTBNL with the compensatory picks, not requiring any one of them immediately. The Indians have more pressing needs and will benefit from LaPorta, who immediately becomes the clubs #1 prospect and strengthens a solid minor league system (I will provide an Indians prospect list after this week).

As a supporter/bandwagoner of the Tampa Bay Rays, this trade also works out well. The Sox, Yanks, etc are now out of the Sabathia sweepstakes. Additionally, with 6 games remaining against the Indians, the odds of facing Sabathia at least once were substantial. Now the Rays will benefit from facing Jeff Weaver at least once...Not a terrible turn of events for the Rays despite a heart breaking loss this afternoon.

Update - 07/07/08 - 5:15PM EST
According to MLB.com, the PTBNL is reported to be either Taylor Green or Michael Brantley, "both of whom are considered prime prospects." From what I can see, both would be outstanding additions and would have a promising big league career ahead.

Trade Speculator - Goodbye Carstens - Part II

Via Baseball Digest Daily,

FoxSports.com is reporting that the Milwaukee Brewers have dealt Matt LaPorta and 2 lower level prospects to the Cleveland Indians for C.C. Sabathia. I've yet to receive confirmation of the trade but I've put in a call to Matt and hope to hear back from his soon. More details to come...

It will be interesting to see who the two additional prospects are, as well as to hear LaPorta's take on the trade. It does, however, sound as if the Brewers stood pat in not willing to deal both LaPorta and Alcides Escobar, thus crushing my dreams of seeing the greatest middle infield of all time.

I will reflect on this trade at a later date. Obviously I would like to hear what other offers were legitimately on the table as that is vital to grading a trade under these circumstances. It also can be assumed that the Indians feel as though their season is lost.

Trade Speculator - CC Sabathia - Part I

For Charles Carstens and the Indians, hopefully this Trade Speculator is part one of one. As reported by Tim Hardicourt and Anthony Witrado, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Indians are in negotiations to work out a deal that revolve around CC Sabathia. As far as names are concerned, the only reports are that the Indians have checked out Milwaukee's high A affiliate, the Brevard County Manatees. Canadian Taylor Green is a name that came up, although I can't see the Indians making a trade for prospects that are that far from the majors. Hardicourt and Witrado assert that the Brewers probably wouldn't part with Green and the other top third base prospect, Matt Gamel. However, Shapiro has been quite sly with his trade negotiations, so expect him to get a lot here.

Despite the report from Hardicourt and Witrado, Ken Rosenthal is suggesting that the Brewers have offered their top prospect, Matt LaPorta. It additionally sounds as if they are willing to send Alcides Escobar in a package for Sabathia. Rosenthal, however, suggests that an additional piece would have to come from Cleveland in this proposed package.

If the Indians could land Escobar, the middle infield that this team would sport at the end of 2009 and beyond would be, in my opinion, the best of all time. Maybe not with the sticks, but I'm certain it would be impossible to hit a ground ball up the middle on those two slick fielders. Additionally, we would see some of the most remarkable double plays ever!

Stepping away from my Cleveland colored glasses for a moment, let's take a look at what the experts have to say about LaPorta and Escobar.

Kevin Goldstein, the Baseball Prospectus writer whom I source several times a week, rated LaPorta as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization and the 4th player under 25. Keep in mind that LaPorta is in the company of All Stars Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, as well as pitcher Yovani Gallardo. In other words, if LaPorta was in any other organization, he would arguably be their top under 25 talent.

I will ignore what negative Goldstein has to say about LaPorta as it focuses on his fielding and fielding alone. The reason being, when the bat is as good as LaPorta's is projected to be, you are excused for having cement hands. Here is what Goldstein has to say,

LaPorta has true impact potential offensively, with some scouts believing that he had the best power and the best pitch recognition in last June's draft. He has the patience to wait for a pitch to hit, the bat speed to let balls carry deep into the zone, the strength to power them out to all fields, and the hand/eye coordination to hit for average as well. Moved to the outfield for the first time in his career after signing, the Brewers praised his work ethic in learning the new position, and his ability to leave his defensive issues behind him when he stepped to the plate.

'True impact potential offensively'. Given as a 23 year old, LaPorta has 19 moonshots thus far for his double A club, it appears as though he has been accurately labeled.

Sickels agrees that LaPorta's bat is legit, although like Goldstein, he questions LaPorta's glove dropping the kid to #19 on his prospect hitters list. A B+ rating is solid, if not spectacular for a hitter with such little experience within professional baseball. This only further impresses me on the success that LaPorta has had to date.

Despite recent word that the Brewers will be unwilling to part with Escobar if they are already sending LaPorta, let's quickly check out the player whom the Indians might have involved in this package.

Escobar is not going to win a triple crown any time soon. In fact, he probably never will. The lack of power, which led a scout to tell Goldstein, that Escobar is "about as strong as my sister". Furthermore, according to Goldstein, Escobar's "highly-aggressive approach limits his on-base ability. He also has a sizable platoon split, with much more effectiveness against southpaws."

The Indians would be receiving a high average, outstanding defensive short stop. This could be an addition by subtraction as it would allow them to freely shop Casey Blake and eventually move Jhonny Peralta to the hot corner.

Looking through the Brewers organization, four names stuck out to me as players I would want if I were running the Indians.

First, Zachary Braddock, a 20 year old left handed starter pitching in high A. Currently Braddock is having a mediocre season, but much of that can be blamed on poor luck and lack of control. Sickels rated Braddock as a C+ prospect entering this season, and I would imagine that rating to remain the same as of today. The strikeouts have taken a hit, but he is still young enough to turn things around in that regard.

Second, Corey Frerichs. This 22 year old reliever is dominating low A ball with an 11.72 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings). Like Braddock his walk rate is fairly high, and at Frerichs age, he may never turn into Rafael Betancourt, but from the numbers, the kid looks like a nice piece to acquire. Frerichs isn't showing up on anyones prospect lists, to his price may be low enough to get as a throw in.

Third, catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The 22 year old catcher, drafted in the 3rd round and touted as the second best hitting catcher in the 2007 draft behind Matt Weiters, an Orioles prospect. Thus far, Lucroy has not disappointed and liek LaPorta, is a defensive renaissance from being an even higher rated prospect. Sickels rated Lucroy as a B- entering this season.

Lastly, 20 year old right handed starter, Jeremy Jeffress. I gather that Jeffress would be incredibly difficult to pry from the Brewers as he is having success in high A at a relatively young age. Sickels rated Jefress as a B prospect assuming that he is no longer a threat to be suspended for violating the leagues substance abuse program. Goldstein had the following to say while rating the first rounder a 4 star prospect,

On a pure velocity level, Jeffress ranks with any arm in the minors, as he parked his fastball consistently at 94-97 mph, and touched 100 mph on several occasions last year. He flashes a good curveball at times, and has begun to show some feel for a changeup as well, despite being very new to the pitch. He's an outstanding athlete, and his arm action is clean.

Of the four, Jeffress is presumably the most difficult to obtain. Shapiro, however, may be able to offer to rid the Brewers of the headaches Jeffers causes. Obviously Lucroy's defensive issues would have to be cleared, as the team does not need another Ryan Garko.

Given the current LaPorta for Sabathia offer, the Indians should not hesitate to make this move. Mark Shapiro should act quickly. Given the day to day uncertainty of MLB players, anything could happen in an instant which could simultaneously make Sabathia undesirable, and the Brewers from wanting to send their most coveted prospect. Given the fact that I am an Indians fan, this is a trade I will be monitoring closely.

Article of the Week for the Week of June 22 - 28

Article of the Week is running a few days behind due to the sudden media focus on the Rays. Because of that, I wanted to ensure that my voice was heard and those who continue to refer to the Rays as the SURPRISING Rays would recognize this isn't all that shocking to everyone.

Being able to reflect upon an article from the website I write for is thrilling. While the content is typically strong at Baseball Digest Daily, it is not often that an article truly sticks out. Recently, I reflected upon The Hot Stove League and analyzed the mid-point value of the three major trades. One of which included the Mariners sending a boat load of prospects to the Orioles for Erik Bedard.

One of those prospects happened to be Chris Tillman, who is one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. BDD's Paul Bugala sat down with the kid and talked baseball. A very interesting read.

A few highlights which make Tillman a very interesting longterm prospect. Tillman recognizes that he occasionally needs to pitch to contact. Tillman states,

That’s one thing I’d like to get better on is pitching to contact early in the count and not getting late in counts. Lately I’ve been walking people, so I have to go to the strikeout mentality so they don’t score runs. Pitching to contact is huge.

Furthermore, Tillman's intelligence appears to be off the charts. He discusses the 'mind games' that hitters play at Double A. Explaining this concept Tillman states,

Reading swings is a big part of it, but every now and then you’ll get a hitter who will take a terrible swing at a pitch and he’s doing it to set you up to get you to throw it again.

Pick up on these two aspects of pitching is vital to a pitchers success at the highest levels. That is, relying on the defense behind a pitcher, as well as being prepared to make changes on the fly will help Tillman as he rises through the minors and into the majors. With this type of recognition, in addition to his raw stuff, it wouldn't surprise me if Tillman made noise immediately in the majors. He is a prospect to keep track of over the next year or so.

MLB International Signing Day - Michel Inoa Scouting Report

According to Baseball Digest Daily,

The Oakland Athletics are scheduled to make a major player announcement in Santa Domingo, Dominican Republic on Wednesday at 11:30 AM ET. If speculation is correct, the A's will announce the signing of super prospect Michel Inoa.

In attendance at the press conference will be Billy Beane, Vice President & General Manager, Billy Owens, Director of Player Personnel, and Raymond Abreu, Director of Latin America Operations.

As I mentioned yesterday, this is all but official. By the time that most of you read this, it will have become official. The Oakland Athletics, yes, the perpetually trying to save A's, are going to dish out the largest signing bonus to an international amateur.

While evaluating the move the Athletics made during the last off season, I speculated that they were building to contend for when they move to Freemont in 2011. Looking at the pieces they acquired, it would appear all of them will be ready and/or arriving at their peak when the Athletics (whom are being speculated to be undergoing a name change) for the 2011 or 2012 season. Each of the players acquired are under team control through at least the 2011 season. Could Inoa be another piece of the puzzle? If he is in fact the real deal, why not?


Something I do not understand is why teams will not hesitate to throw out $6M or so on a North American high school kid whom they can not be certain exactly what type of mileage he has on his arm and are involved in a 'bidding war' for a 16 year old. As I mentioned yesterday, the Tigers threw a guaranteed $11M at Rick Porcello from the 2007 draft (to be paid over the next 4 years). Despite Inoa's large reported signing bonus, he will still cost the Athletics less then Porcello over the same amount of time. While Porcello is undeniably closer to the majors, and is clearly further developed then Inoa, if the scouting reports are accurate, Inoa should be the better of the two. Thus, could this be the Athletics again attempting to take advantage of the market? Why spend $11M on a Porcello when a kid like Inoa can be had for half of that?

As per Michael Lewis' Moneyball,

A poor team couldn't afford to go out shopping for big league stars in the prime of their careers. It couldn't even afford to go out and buy averagely priced players...The poor team was forced to find bargain...

Picture Billy Beane, sitting in his office at McAfee Stadium hearing about this 'once in a generation talent' that can be had for a one time price of $4M plus minor league expenses (which really won't kick in until he comes to America in a year or two). To me, it seems logical to shoot Inoa $4-5M while having him under your microscope and can be certain how much he throws and what type of pitches he is throwing.


But why this kid? What, outside of a few scouts calling him 'once in a generation' makes him so special? How are we to know he will be the next Dwight Gooden (minus the cocaine)? Saber-Scouting (SS) has a scouting report on the kid, let's go through it:

Despite being 6'7" most do not consider him to be a tall, gangly teenager. In fact, there have been numerous occasions where scouts have stated that his mechanics are under control and repeatable. According to SS, Inoa has basketball player athleticism. Combine all of this, and we have a teenager that is extremely advanced, this is mostly noted through Inoa's confirmed command, which is considered very strong.

Saber-Scouting continues by stating,

Inoa’s mechanics are clean and the ball “comes out of his hand shockingly easy,” according to another source. Inoa comes from an athletic family, has a clean and fluid arm action, and earns high marks for his makeup and work ethic.

High praise for a 16 year old.

Inoa also possesses a curve ball, which rates out as a plus pitch, and a splitter which has been called 'dirty'. Owning a plus third pitch, combined with solid command and a reported strong mound presence is what makes Inoa an easy signing, even for the small market Athletics.

Saber-Scouting continues grading out Inoa's pitches on the traditionally used 20-80 scale. The first figure is his current rating, while the second represents a projection-which is nearly impossible to do, given Inoa's lack of professional instruction:

Fastball: 55/70
Curveball: 50/60
Splitter: 45/55
Command: 45/60

Not the best, but spectacular from a 16 year old. Given some proper coaching, and monitoring of usage, and it would not come as a surprise to anyone to see Inoa in the majors before his 20th birthday. Hopefully I am still around and writing by that time.

International Signing Day

Tomorrow (July 2) begins the start of Major League Baseball's International Signing Day. Some of the majors biggest stars have come from this day, which primarily focuses upon Latin American and the Caribbean. Recent years have seen signing bonuses shoot through the roof, however they have not reached a point where the small market clubs are left with bidding on the weakest players. Instead, much of the work is done as the kids develop through team baseball academies, of which is something every team has in almost every country.

However, as the cost of players increases, a time may come where International signings are for the have's, while the have-not's will have to increase their research efforts. According to Baseball America,

Last year, three players received $1 million or more: Red Sox third baseman Michael Almanzar ($1.5 million), Yankees outfielder Kelvin De Leon ($1.1 million) and Mariners shortstop Jharmidy DeJesus ($1 million).

Wily Mo Pena's $2.44 million bonus from the Yankees in 1999 is the record for an international amateur signing...

ESPN.com Enrique Rojas writes that the International Signing Day has become auction-like for Latin American teenagers. Currently, there have been two signings as those players turned 17 prior to the signing day, thus, making them eligible free agents. As per Baseball America,

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

All this leads to an exciting time in baseball as the top international prospects can be considered as extensions of the first round. Which leads to the question of why teams hesitate to dish out first round money to international players whom the team then has superior control of. That is, signing a 16 year old and controlling what he throws, how often he throws, and how he throws for an extra 2 to 4 years.

The consensus top player to be signed on July 2nd, is Dominican right handed starting pitcher Michel Inoa. The 16 year old is already 6'7" and weighs 205lbs. In other words, the boy is already a man. Scouting reports from both Baseball America and ESPNDeportes suggest that Inoa throws 91-94mph and does so under impressive control, some project that his fastball could consistently reach 100mph once he fills out. Inoa also possesses what is being called two potentially plus pitches, which he already controls.

According to Baseball America, "Several scouts have told BA that Inoa is a once-in-a-generation talent..." Given the amount of hype, and dollars that are being thrown around in this bidding war, that sentiment is agreed upon even with Major League GM's. As is, reports are suggesting that the Oakland Athletics are poised to break the bank with a signing bonus of $4.25M. Considering the Tigers spent a guaranteed $11M on Rick Porcello-albeit over 4 years-this contract is fairly reasonable.

This $4.25M signing bonus will be the largest the Athletics have ever given to an amateur player.

ESPN provides the next top prospects to be signed outside of Inoa and the Juan Duran, the prospect the Reds signed recently. Here they are, scouting reports at ESPN.com:

2 Yorman Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Venezuela

3 Adis Portillo RHP 16 (Dec. 20, 1991) Venezuela

4 Rafael Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Dominican Republic

5 Luis Domoromo OF 16 (Feb. 4, 1992) Venezuela

6 Alvaro Aristy SS 16 (Dec. 9, 1991) Dominican Republic

7 Gustavo Pierre SS 16 (N/A) Dominican

8 Santo Franco RHP 16 (Nov. 28, 1991) Dominican

9 Swarling Jimenez LHP 16 (Nov. 27, 1991) Dominican Republic

10 Elvin Tavarez RHP 16 (Sept. 7, 1991) Dominican

11 Julio Morban OF 16 (Feb. 13, 1992) Dominican

12 Ramon Flores OF 16 (March 26, 1992) Dominican

13 Jose Valdivia RHP 16 (March 19, 1992)

14 Carlos Perez LHP 16 (Nov. 20, 1991) Dominican

I will try to announce these signings as they occur. While it will be at least 5 years before we see any of these players in the majors, many of these players will have as much value as the televised MLB draft.

MLB's Rule IV Draft

With MLB's Rule IV draft but days away, here is an explanation of how the draft works at Baseball America (courtesy MLB Trade Rumors). The Rule IV draft, for those who do not know, is baseball's amateur draft where highschoolers and college players alike have their hopes and dreams of heading towards their childhood dream come true.

According to MLB.com,

MLB.com will have exclusive coverage of the remaining rounds on Day 1 with live analysis from The Milk House by Draft expert Jonathan Mayo. Coverage will begin at 11:30 a.m. on Day 2 and continue through to the final pick. MLB.com's coverage will also feature two days of live video from Florida on BaseballChannel.TV.

In addition, MLB.com's live Draft Tracker will provide a searchable database of every Draft-eligible player that will feature biographical data, statistics, scouting reports and, in many cases, scouting video.

This will be the first year that the MLB draft is open to fans and will undoubtedly head in the direction of making the draft more of an event. With MLB's 24-hour channel on the horizon, the league certainly wants to ensure that all the draft day kinks are ironed out before jumping feet first into the venture.

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo has done an outstanding job covering the draft, providing readers with a weekly report on the players who have declared for the draft. Check it out.

Over at Minor League Ball.com, John Sickels provides his readers with a first round mock draft, selecting 30 players involved in the 'regular' picks, and 29 'supplemental picks'. Here is a sneak preview of John's top 10 as well as the token Canadian highschooler:

1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Seems like the most logical pick to me.
2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Pirates prove they are willing to spend $$.
3) Royals: Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Royals opt for close-to-ready bat.
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Can't pass him up.
5) Giants: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Excellent bat, close to ready.
6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: The rumors make sense to me.
7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Best player available.
8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: System thin on hitting could use him.
9) Nationals: Aaron Hicks, RHP, California HS: Nats decide he's a pitcher.
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: Astros opt for "safe" college pitcher.
14) Twins: Brett Lawrie, INF, Canada HS: Twins pick cold-weather bat, hoping for another Morneau and worried that he won't last to 27.

Jonathan Mayo also has his first round mock draft at MLB.com. There are not a whole lot of deviations from the predictions as both seem to be following their leads from MLB executives and scouts a like.

What is most interesting about projecting the draft is how much of a crap shoot the MLB draft is. While teams are certainly becoming more efficient with their scouting, having to wait 2 or 3 years for even the best prospects is a troubling task for many fans. This year, it is said that there is truly no consensus #1 pick and unlike many years, the draft does not appear to be incredibly deep. Which leads me to wonder, why are the Rays looking for 'best available' when they could potentially fill a hole with a quick signing relief pitcher that is major league ready but has a relatively low ceiling.

Enjoy the coverage.

Adam Miller Watch - Whoa! Really?

In what was reported to be a simple callous on a finger of Adam Miller's throwing hand, has turned out to be a season ending injury. As I wrote earlier this week, I was skeptical about whether or not the reports of the injury being simply a callous were correct.

According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer,

Lonnie Soloff, Indians head athletic trainer, said Miller will be out for eight weeks. He can then resume a throwing program, which essentially will take him to the end of the minor league season at Class AAA Buffalo.

Miller, who missed all of spring training with the big-league club because of a callous on the same finger, originally injured the tendon last year. He injured it once during the season and once again in the Arizona Fall League.

This year Miller was pitching well for Buffalo, but the unattached tendon in the finger caused a fistula to develop on the second crease of the underside of the finger between two callouses. Soloff said Dr. Graham determined that the fistula, a hole in the skin, which could lead to infection, would not close if the tendon wasn't re-attached to the bone.

While there is still hope that Miller will be able to pitch at some point this season, the Indians management are going to have to look long and hard at the long term value of Miller. While many asserted that he was destined to the bullpen because of his continual injury issues, there was hope that he would be able to get past the issues which have plagued his professional career.

Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com had the following report,

"It's a challenging injury," Soloff said. "It was a very challenging procedure to perform."

Miller actually suffered the injury a year ago and missed six weeks of action with the Bisons while resting the strain. The Indians felt Miller could get by without surgery.

But as a result of the strain, Miller's tendon would bowstring, and his skin sagged when his finger bent. That caused the skin to rub up against the baseball, creating two hardened calluses. Between those calluses, a hole developed in the skin.

Graham found that Miller's tendons were starting to fray and his finger's pulley system -- in layman's terms, the system that allows his finger to bend -- was not working properly.

"Closing [the hole in] the skin would not be enough [for Miller] to pitch at a high level," Soloff said.

While the Indians medical staff annually ranks among the elite in the business, there is little doubt that they have misdiagnosed Miller to this point. That is not to say that they have at all harmed Miller, rather, it is to say that the direction the club took with Miller was misguided. There is little doubt in my mind at this point, that Miller will not be given any more shots at proving he is capable of being a major league starter, his role will now be to work out of the bullpen.

This news is especially damaging to the Indians organization at it appeared they were prepared to go in one of two directions. The first, was to bring Miller up and give him a shot at long relief, expanding his bullpen role as he proved to be capable of doing so. The second, was to look into bringing in a quality major league bat. Jason Bay's name had been linked with the Indians in the off season, but the Pirates decided to hold out building Bay's value. With the way Bay is currently playing and the amount remaining on his contract, a Bay for Miller swap did not seem out of the question. That speculation however, can all but be disregarded.


I will continue to follow Adam Miller in hopes of uncovering any reason behind the continual problems he is having despite no obvious mechanical issues. I hope to also dig up some information on how Miller himself feels about the circumstances of this major injury.

Adam Miller Watch - He's On the DL!

The Cleveland Indians top prospect, Adam Miller, and the focus of many posts here at The Outsiders Look, is heading to the disabled list, according to Bisons.com. The website is not reporting a retroactive date, which leads me to believe he may be out for some time (although I have emailed some sources and hope to have an update on the extent of Miller's injury specifically).

The Buffalo News is reporting that Miller has been placed on the DL due to "a broken callous on his pitching hand." Further information was released a day later suggesting that the injury is specifically related to a finger. Indians.com is reporting that the callous is on the same finger as the blister which caused Miller to delay the start of his season. With how Miller came back so strong, it is startling that the blister went away and then essential reappeared.

I have also received word that the callous is, in most cases, is similar to a blister, which again, makes me wonder how Miller went from a blister in Spring to having a clean hand, to again developing an issue with this finger. The injury is especially worrisome in it's severity as according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto, Miller was on the verge of a call-up to help strengthen the bullpen.

I will be adding more information as it arrives.



Update - 05/27/2008 - 12:22 PM EST
Josh Weir of the Canton Rep. is reporting that the callous is on the same finger that Miller strained a ligament on last year and consequently landed him on the disabled list. This injury issue is interesting as by most accounts, Miller has an easy and smooth delivery. Few, if anyone report any major mechanical flaws. This reminds me of Josh Beckett's battle with blisters. I will do some digging and see what was Beckett did to get past those issues.

Clayton Kershaw - Blogging it Out

DirecTV is stepping it up with their latest ad campaign, so I figured it was only right that I did as well, so here I am, Blogging it Out.

Clayton Kershaw, the 'most hyped' Dodgers prospect in recent memory takes the mound for his major league debut this afternoon, taking the place of DFA'ed Esteban Loaiza. By now, I'm certain everyone had heard about that, so really nothing to report on that front.

We are one out into the second inning and Kershaw looks good, but not great, although what do you expect from a kid who two years ago was trying to figure out whether or not he would be stood up for prom. After 32 first inning pitches, Kershaw allowed an RBI double to Albert Pujols on one of Kershaw's patent big hooks. Relying on only his curve and fastball, hitters seemed to have a beat on the kid in the first inning. He has since turned things around and has induced two groundball outs to go along with four strikeouts.

His 'stuff' has always ranked as that of an ace and that has turned up throughout the minors. The Hardball Times published an article about Kershaw this week titled, 'Is Clayton Kershaw Worth the Hype?' Here are some highlights from that article:

Fastball - Kershaw's fastball sits anywhere from 93-96 with a good amount of late movement.

However, he still needs to command the pitch better, even though he generally has good control of it. I also think he may have some extra velocity in the tank if he needs it.

Grade: 60 now, 70 future

Curveball—Kershaw's curveball (as seen at the start of this article) is an 11-to-6 knee buckler with substantial bite. The pitch is usually in the mid-70s. Like the fastball, he can do a better job commanding the pitch.

Also worth pointing out is Kershaw's ability to get hitters gearing up for something hard when he throws his curveball because the intent he throws with and the mechanics he displays are the same whether throwing a fastball at 95 mph or a curveball at 75 mph.

Grade: 65 now, 70 future

Change-up—This is a pitch Kershaw is still honing. The pitch shows a solid fading action and he shows good feel for throwing the pitch, but he has to work on keeping the same arm speed he uses to throw his fastball; he has to do a better job of selling the pitch. By most accounts, he has made tremendous strides in improving his change-up since being drafted in 2006.

Grade: 45-50 now, 55 future

Overall, Kershaw has the potential to have two of the most dominant pitches in the majors. The author asserts that there aren't any serious red flags among Clayton's stuff. From what I have seen to this point, the stuff looks 'explosive' more then 'electric'. That is to say, he has the control and the velocity that is ideal, but the movement, from what I have seen, is less then stellar.

Let's see what MLB Gameday has to say about that. Kershaw's curveball shows outstanding movement, as is expected from a pitcher with such a devastating hook. However, his fastball is straight and does not have an overwhelming amount of sink. These are things that can help a pitcher in the minor leagues, but I wonder what Kershaw will do if his curve is not working one day. Furthermore, I am curious how he will get through a batting order the third time through in the second or third time facing the same club.

That is, as of today, team's are at the plate guessing what pitch is coming next. A hitter is not aware of the patterns Kershaw displays nor can they be expected to know what is coming in most counts.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had the following to write about Kershaw, while naming him the #1 prospect in the Dodgers organization and #5 in all of baseball (I tabbed Kershaw as the #1 prospect in all of baseball):

The Good: Once scout classified Kershaw as the best left-hander he's ever seen in the Midwest League. His fastball sits at 93-95 mph, can touch 98, and comes in on right-handed hitters with hard, boring action. He backs up the pitch with a plus-plus slow, looping curveball that freezes batters the second it comes out of his hand. His changeup has advanced to an average pitch, and he has the perfect pitcher's build, a smooth, easy delivery, and maturity beyond his years.
The Bad: Kershaw struggles at times with his command, and he doesn't compensate for it well, often grooving hittable fastball when he falls behind in the count. He needs to find more confidence in his changeup and mix it into his arsenal more often.
Fun Fact: Highland Park High School has a wide-ranging list of alumni, including Padres righty Chris Young, 1950s bombshell Jayne Mansfield, and almost-presidential assassin John Hinckley, Jr.
Perfect World Projection: Kershaw has all of the raw tools to be a major league ace of the highest level.

And let's check out what John Sickels at Minor League Ball has to say about Kershaw:

Physicality, Health, and Tools
Kershaw is 6-3, 210 pounds, a lefthanded hitter and thrower, born March 19, 1988. He is athletic and usually repeats his delivery well, although occasionally his release point will slip which hurts his command. His fastball is consistently in the low 90s and can hit 95-96 MPH at times. His curveball is excellent, and he's made major strides improving his changeup. Kershaw should have three above-average to excellent major league pitches, and as he refines his command he should have a dominating combination of plus stuff and sharp control. So far he has had no major health concerns.

As you can see, Kershaw received rave reviews from 'experts'. In this afternoon's game Kershaw has gotten his fastball up to 97mph and his curveball has been dropping down to 72mph. While both are explosive pitches, they undeniably have a different release point and delivery. I believe once hitters begin to recognize this, they will start hitting Kershaw hard. Vin Scully commented that Kershaw throws his fastball at 'maximum effort'.

What I have loved about Kershaw is his ability to run fastballs inside on right handed hitters. Either a letter high or belt high fastball has been swung on and missed multiple times in this outing and in essentially every pitch, Kershaw would have posted a called strike.

To this point, it appears as though Kershaw has thrown one change up, which surprised Pujols. I was shocked to see that FSN West Plus had it clocked at 84mph as it looked to be much slower.


This is definitely an exciting debut for the 20 year old however I'm not sure the Dodgers should keep him up with the big league club all season until he is at the very least comfortable in throwing his change up if (when) needed.

Adam Miller Watch - May 15, 2008 in Review

Check out MiLB.com's Gameday for Adam Miller's showing against the PawSox on May 15, 2008.

In another quality start, Miller held the PawSox to two runs over six innings while just missing out on the complete game. This has got to go down as Adam's most efficient start of the season and one in which he would look to build on going forward. The one thing that is worrisome about this start is the lack of strikes which Adam threw, something Lovullo touched on in the post game press conference (below). This same lack of control is something that would cause Miller a lot more trouble in the majors and may be something that keeps him in Triple A all season.

This, however, would hurt Miller's shot at making a bid for the bullpen down the stretch, a position Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer believed was to be Miller's ticket to the bigs for 2008. That is, if a pitcher cannot throw strikes in the first inning when they have some leeway in terms of allowing base runners and consequently runs, how will he make an impact with the bullpen.

What is most alarming in my estimation is the amount of hitters Miller is starting off with a ball. Against the PawSox on the 15th Miller started three of the first six hitters off with a ball. One of the three that had a strike swung at a pitch that looked to be well out of the zone. Interestingly, two of the three that started the at bat out with a ball ended up on base.

The second and third innings saw Miller be around the plate where he racked up his first strikeout. Still, even in Miller's best inning he started a third of the hitters off with a ball.

In the forth inning, Miller's inability to finish off a hitter could have easily been exposed. What is interesting about this inning is the ability of the hitters to not chance pitches out of the strike zone. That is, a pitcher with the kind of stuff that Miller possesses should be able to trick hitters more frequently. What this tells me is that Miller is not being very deceptive and is being too predictable. Throwing a slider in certain counts and staying away form it in others. This could be a lack of confidence in the pitch, or a worry that his injury may sneak back up.

The fifth inning MiLB Gameday data shows that Miller was extremely close to the zone with all of his pitches. Despite starting two of three hitters out with balls Miller was just missing. Again, the concern about being unable to fool hitters arises, as Miller is not going to continue to have such fortune with balls in play in every start. That is, however, unless Miller is doing such a good job at tricking hitters that they are unable to put good wood on the balls.

Much the same in the sixth inning, with two of the three batters Miller faced taking the first pitch for a ball. The hitters appeared to be seeing the ball quite well at this point, as they were taking a lot of early swings and connecting. Fortunately for Miller, the balls were hit directly to his fielders.

While the control for Miller still is not there and the strikeout rate does leave a little to be desired Miller is inducing a good number of ground balls. The line drive rate is not out of this world and he is obviously doing something right to own a 0.0 home run per fly ball rate.

Check out Torey Lovullo's post game press conference, here where he comments on Miller's start and briefly touches on the struggles Miller has endured to this point.

Adam Miller Watch - May 9, 2008 in Review

The Adam Miller watch returns in what may be a rain out here in Buffalo. It is the middle of May and Miller is yet to pitch in a game where the weather cooperated for him. However, maybe that has come as a good thing as Miller has not allowed an earned run in 3 of his 4 starts to date. It also should be noted that Miller had his best start of the season following his worst.

On May 9th, Miller pitched five very strong innings, allowing only 3 hits and surrendering 2 walks while accumulating 4 strikeouts. Each of the hits Miller surrendered were for singles with one of the hitters making it to second on a steal. I am curious as to whether or not Miller's tall stature has an effect on how effective he can be controlling the running game.

It is interesting to note that Miller threw only 54 of 85 pitches for strikes. To date, his control still is not entirely there. He does have the stuff to succeed while being wild in the minors, but major league hitters would eat him up.

In viewing last week's MiLB Gameday, we can see that Miller started off this start with two strikeouts, both on swinging strikes on pitches in the zone. I have noticed that a lot of Miller's pitches are being fouled off and am curious what relationship this has with how Miller is currently pitching.

In the second inning, Miller was battling with every hitter he faced, allowing the first two to reach on singles after multiple balls were fouled off. As you can see with the at bat against Buscher (image right), we can see that Miller appeared to be unable to truly trick the journeyman. For a pitcher of Miller's stuff, he should not have this type of difficulty in getting a hitter to hit his pitch. Another thing to take note of, Miller was fortunate that two of five hitters he faced put the ball in play on the first pitch of the at bat. Even still, Miller allowed three base runners on 25 pitches. Fortunate for Adam was a nicely turned double play.

The third inning was a different story for Adam as he was able to set the side down in order along with a dominating strikeout against hot hitting Denard Span.

Entering the bottom of the forth, Miller had thrown 43 pitches and was looking as if he could eat up some serious innings and possibly earn a victory. He kept this up by throwing 7 pitches on his way to setting down the side.

Up by two runs, Miller had just posted two of his most efficient back to back innings of the season. After this point, Adam was poised to go 7, if not 8 innings for the longest start of his young season. That, however came to a quick close as he again struggled to put a hitter away. Garrett Jones, whom you might otherwise know for his outstanding minor league on base percentage (.325) took Miller to the ropes lining out to center on 8 pitches. Another 6 pitches to Morales and Miller has sat down to hitters on a total of 14 pitches. However, things began to again unfurl as hitters continued to foul pitches off and Miller could not fool anyone with a pitch outside of the strike zone. An 8 pitch at bat and Basak reaches on a soft fly ball to left, Casilla walks on 5 pitches (4 straight balls) and finally Miller finishes off the inning. Although not before throwing 8 pitches to Span. In total, the fifth inning took Miller 35 pitches, jumping him up to 85 and consequently ending his evening.

A (different) source close to the team reported that Miller is still working in the low 90s and is improving with each start. Additionally, the news is good from the perspective of the Cleveland Indians as Miller has been holding up fine to date.

Adam Miller Watch - May 9, 2008

The return of the Adam Miller Watch comes at you after the worst statistical start of Miller's season. Miller's last start on May 4th, was a relatively shaky one, in which he was more the victim of bad luck then terrible pitching. This was noted in last week's Miller Watch when I discussed the play by play action of the game as I saw it unfold live. I do however want to make note that I am worried with how Miller was working behind in many of the counts.

On May 4th, Miller started the game off strong, striking out two in the first inning and beginning four of the five hitters he faced with a first pitch strike.

When Miller allowed two hits in the second inning, you could see his location was beginning to fade and he was not able to fool many of the hitters he faced. During this inning, three of five hitters started their at bats out with a ball.

This trend continued as Miller missed the strike zone to all but three of the first eight hitters he faced. Keep in mind, one of those three was a first pitch single that plated two of the three runs Miller allowed in that inning.

During the forth inning, Miller looked to be reestablishing himself early on against hitters, forcing them to go after his stuff. After two quick outs he again struggled to find the strike zone early and fell behind the next two hitters he would face. At this point, it was obvious Miller was laboring as he was clearing his season high for pitches thrown and had done so with a great amount of stress considering the amount of base runners he had allowed to this point.

As mentioned, luck played a role in the lack of success Miller had on that Sunday afternoon. The weather was not the best for a ballgame, especially for a kid from Texas. However, the biggest issue Miller ran into, was not being able to control hitters. He was constantly putting himself into situations where he was behind in the count and thus was forced to throw strikes. While Adam has the stuff to get by in instances where he is struggling to locate, occasionally the balls will simply fall into play, even greater are the chances of this happening when you are playing in front of Minor League defense.

A couple positives to take from this start. The first, despite Miller's lack of control, he managed to only allow one walk. Possibly Miller could have been a little more careful in hitters counts to not entirely give in. Second, Miller induced the most strike outs per inning of his short season. Although the negative of this is that it took more plate appearances then Adam's previous time out, the stat of K/9 increased, if ever so slightly.


A source close to the team is reporting that Miller's fastball has been working in the 90 to 93mph range. This is about where Torey Lovullo suggested it would be for much of the season as Adam focuses more on how to pitch.

My source also tells me that Miller has stated he is feeling fine, however he is frustrated with his location. Obviously with how Adam's track record, we can see that his walks are an anomaly and are presumably more due to rust then his actual ability. However, it isn't as if Miller's walk rate is terrible. So this could in fact be Miller's frustration with being unable to get ahead of hitters early.

Overall, my source tells me Miller hasn't felt as crisp as he would like. This, as I am told, is part of the reason why Miller has not been working very far into games. Keep in mind however, that Miller is essentially in Mid-April form instead of approaching Mid-May form. Even a minor set back, like the blisters Adam started the season with can have a major effect on a pitchers performance well into the season.

In addition to this, I am curious if Miller is holding something back. My source tells me Miller has hit 95mph at least once on the ballpark radar gun. For a pitcher who typically works in the mid 90s this could either be Miller trying a new approach (as asserted by Lovullo) or this could be Miller cautioning against injury.


I will be in Detroit for the Tigers-Yankees game and to set a long time friend off (aka Bachelor Party) so I won't be able to do my usual pitch-by-pitch analysis on the game. I will return for Miller's following start having hopefully attended the game in Buffalo that evening-weather permitting.