Trade Speculator - Goodbye Carstens - Part II

Via Baseball Digest Daily,

FoxSports.com is reporting that the Milwaukee Brewers have dealt Matt LaPorta and 2 lower level prospects to the Cleveland Indians for C.C. Sabathia. I've yet to receive confirmation of the trade but I've put in a call to Matt and hope to hear back from his soon. More details to come...

It will be interesting to see who the two additional prospects are, as well as to hear LaPorta's take on the trade. It does, however, sound as if the Brewers stood pat in not willing to deal both LaPorta and Alcides Escobar, thus crushing my dreams of seeing the greatest middle infield of all time.

I will reflect on this trade at a later date. Obviously I would like to hear what other offers were legitimately on the table as that is vital to grading a trade under these circumstances. It also can be assumed that the Indians feel as though their season is lost.

Trade Speculator - CC Sabathia - Part I

For Charles Carstens and the Indians, hopefully this Trade Speculator is part one of one. As reported by Tim Hardicourt and Anthony Witrado, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Indians are in negotiations to work out a deal that revolve around CC Sabathia. As far as names are concerned, the only reports are that the Indians have checked out Milwaukee's high A affiliate, the Brevard County Manatees. Canadian Taylor Green is a name that came up, although I can't see the Indians making a trade for prospects that are that far from the majors. Hardicourt and Witrado assert that the Brewers probably wouldn't part with Green and the other top third base prospect, Matt Gamel. However, Shapiro has been quite sly with his trade negotiations, so expect him to get a lot here.

Despite the report from Hardicourt and Witrado, Ken Rosenthal is suggesting that the Brewers have offered their top prospect, Matt LaPorta. It additionally sounds as if they are willing to send Alcides Escobar in a package for Sabathia. Rosenthal, however, suggests that an additional piece would have to come from Cleveland in this proposed package.

If the Indians could land Escobar, the middle infield that this team would sport at the end of 2009 and beyond would be, in my opinion, the best of all time. Maybe not with the sticks, but I'm certain it would be impossible to hit a ground ball up the middle on those two slick fielders. Additionally, we would see some of the most remarkable double plays ever!

Stepping away from my Cleveland colored glasses for a moment, let's take a look at what the experts have to say about LaPorta and Escobar.

Kevin Goldstein, the Baseball Prospectus writer whom I source several times a week, rated LaPorta as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization and the 4th player under 25. Keep in mind that LaPorta is in the company of All Stars Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, as well as pitcher Yovani Gallardo. In other words, if LaPorta was in any other organization, he would arguably be their top under 25 talent.

I will ignore what negative Goldstein has to say about LaPorta as it focuses on his fielding and fielding alone. The reason being, when the bat is as good as LaPorta's is projected to be, you are excused for having cement hands. Here is what Goldstein has to say,

LaPorta has true impact potential offensively, with some scouts believing that he had the best power and the best pitch recognition in last June's draft. He has the patience to wait for a pitch to hit, the bat speed to let balls carry deep into the zone, the strength to power them out to all fields, and the hand/eye coordination to hit for average as well. Moved to the outfield for the first time in his career after signing, the Brewers praised his work ethic in learning the new position, and his ability to leave his defensive issues behind him when he stepped to the plate.

'True impact potential offensively'. Given as a 23 year old, LaPorta has 19 moonshots thus far for his double A club, it appears as though he has been accurately labeled.

Sickels agrees that LaPorta's bat is legit, although like Goldstein, he questions LaPorta's glove dropping the kid to #19 on his prospect hitters list. A B+ rating is solid, if not spectacular for a hitter with such little experience within professional baseball. This only further impresses me on the success that LaPorta has had to date.

Despite recent word that the Brewers will be unwilling to part with Escobar if they are already sending LaPorta, let's quickly check out the player whom the Indians might have involved in this package.

Escobar is not going to win a triple crown any time soon. In fact, he probably never will. The lack of power, which led a scout to tell Goldstein, that Escobar is "about as strong as my sister". Furthermore, according to Goldstein, Escobar's "highly-aggressive approach limits his on-base ability. He also has a sizable platoon split, with much more effectiveness against southpaws."

The Indians would be receiving a high average, outstanding defensive short stop. This could be an addition by subtraction as it would allow them to freely shop Casey Blake and eventually move Jhonny Peralta to the hot corner.

Looking through the Brewers organization, four names stuck out to me as players I would want if I were running the Indians.

First, Zachary Braddock, a 20 year old left handed starter pitching in high A. Currently Braddock is having a mediocre season, but much of that can be blamed on poor luck and lack of control. Sickels rated Braddock as a C+ prospect entering this season, and I would imagine that rating to remain the same as of today. The strikeouts have taken a hit, but he is still young enough to turn things around in that regard.

Second, Corey Frerichs. This 22 year old reliever is dominating low A ball with an 11.72 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings). Like Braddock his walk rate is fairly high, and at Frerichs age, he may never turn into Rafael Betancourt, but from the numbers, the kid looks like a nice piece to acquire. Frerichs isn't showing up on anyones prospect lists, to his price may be low enough to get as a throw in.

Third, catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The 22 year old catcher, drafted in the 3rd round and touted as the second best hitting catcher in the 2007 draft behind Matt Weiters, an Orioles prospect. Thus far, Lucroy has not disappointed and liek LaPorta, is a defensive renaissance from being an even higher rated prospect. Sickels rated Lucroy as a B- entering this season.

Lastly, 20 year old right handed starter, Jeremy Jeffress. I gather that Jeffress would be incredibly difficult to pry from the Brewers as he is having success in high A at a relatively young age. Sickels rated Jefress as a B prospect assuming that he is no longer a threat to be suspended for violating the leagues substance abuse program. Goldstein had the following to say while rating the first rounder a 4 star prospect,

On a pure velocity level, Jeffress ranks with any arm in the minors, as he parked his fastball consistently at 94-97 mph, and touched 100 mph on several occasions last year. He flashes a good curveball at times, and has begun to show some feel for a changeup as well, despite being very new to the pitch. He's an outstanding athlete, and his arm action is clean.

Of the four, Jeffress is presumably the most difficult to obtain. Shapiro, however, may be able to offer to rid the Brewers of the headaches Jeffers causes. Obviously Lucroy's defensive issues would have to be cleared, as the team does not need another Ryan Garko.

Given the current LaPorta for Sabathia offer, the Indians should not hesitate to make this move. Mark Shapiro should act quickly. Given the day to day uncertainty of MLB players, anything could happen in an instant which could simultaneously make Sabathia undesirable, and the Brewers from wanting to send their most coveted prospect. Given the fact that I am an Indians fan, this is a trade I will be monitoring closely.

Article of the Week for the Week of June 22 - 28

Article of the Week is running a few days behind due to the sudden media focus on the Rays. Because of that, I wanted to ensure that my voice was heard and those who continue to refer to the Rays as the SURPRISING Rays would recognize this isn't all that shocking to everyone.

Being able to reflect upon an article from the website I write for is thrilling. While the content is typically strong at Baseball Digest Daily, it is not often that an article truly sticks out. Recently, I reflected upon The Hot Stove League and analyzed the mid-point value of the three major trades. One of which included the Mariners sending a boat load of prospects to the Orioles for Erik Bedard.

One of those prospects happened to be Chris Tillman, who is one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. BDD's Paul Bugala sat down with the kid and talked baseball. A very interesting read.

A few highlights which make Tillman a very interesting longterm prospect. Tillman recognizes that he occasionally needs to pitch to contact. Tillman states,

That’s one thing I’d like to get better on is pitching to contact early in the count and not getting late in counts. Lately I’ve been walking people, so I have to go to the strikeout mentality so they don’t score runs. Pitching to contact is huge.

Furthermore, Tillman's intelligence appears to be off the charts. He discusses the 'mind games' that hitters play at Double A. Explaining this concept Tillman states,

Reading swings is a big part of it, but every now and then you’ll get a hitter who will take a terrible swing at a pitch and he’s doing it to set you up to get you to throw it again.

Pick up on these two aspects of pitching is vital to a pitchers success at the highest levels. That is, relying on the defense behind a pitcher, as well as being prepared to make changes on the fly will help Tillman as he rises through the minors and into the majors. With this type of recognition, in addition to his raw stuff, it wouldn't surprise me if Tillman made noise immediately in the majors. He is a prospect to keep track of over the next year or so.

MLB International Signing Day - Michel Inoa Scouting Report

According to Baseball Digest Daily,

The Oakland Athletics are scheduled to make a major player announcement in Santa Domingo, Dominican Republic on Wednesday at 11:30 AM ET. If speculation is correct, the A's will announce the signing of super prospect Michel Inoa.

In attendance at the press conference will be Billy Beane, Vice President & General Manager, Billy Owens, Director of Player Personnel, and Raymond Abreu, Director of Latin America Operations.

As I mentioned yesterday, this is all but official. By the time that most of you read this, it will have become official. The Oakland Athletics, yes, the perpetually trying to save A's, are going to dish out the largest signing bonus to an international amateur.

While evaluating the move the Athletics made during the last off season, I speculated that they were building to contend for when they move to Freemont in 2011. Looking at the pieces they acquired, it would appear all of them will be ready and/or arriving at their peak when the Athletics (whom are being speculated to be undergoing a name change) for the 2011 or 2012 season. Each of the players acquired are under team control through at least the 2011 season. Could Inoa be another piece of the puzzle? If he is in fact the real deal, why not?


Something I do not understand is why teams will not hesitate to throw out $6M or so on a North American high school kid whom they can not be certain exactly what type of mileage he has on his arm and are involved in a 'bidding war' for a 16 year old. As I mentioned yesterday, the Tigers threw a guaranteed $11M at Rick Porcello from the 2007 draft (to be paid over the next 4 years). Despite Inoa's large reported signing bonus, he will still cost the Athletics less then Porcello over the same amount of time. While Porcello is undeniably closer to the majors, and is clearly further developed then Inoa, if the scouting reports are accurate, Inoa should be the better of the two. Thus, could this be the Athletics again attempting to take advantage of the market? Why spend $11M on a Porcello when a kid like Inoa can be had for half of that?

As per Michael Lewis' Moneyball,

A poor team couldn't afford to go out shopping for big league stars in the prime of their careers. It couldn't even afford to go out and buy averagely priced players...The poor team was forced to find bargain...

Picture Billy Beane, sitting in his office at McAfee Stadium hearing about this 'once in a generation talent' that can be had for a one time price of $4M plus minor league expenses (which really won't kick in until he comes to America in a year or two). To me, it seems logical to shoot Inoa $4-5M while having him under your microscope and can be certain how much he throws and what type of pitches he is throwing.


But why this kid? What, outside of a few scouts calling him 'once in a generation' makes him so special? How are we to know he will be the next Dwight Gooden (minus the cocaine)? Saber-Scouting (SS) has a scouting report on the kid, let's go through it:

Despite being 6'7" most do not consider him to be a tall, gangly teenager. In fact, there have been numerous occasions where scouts have stated that his mechanics are under control and repeatable. According to SS, Inoa has basketball player athleticism. Combine all of this, and we have a teenager that is extremely advanced, this is mostly noted through Inoa's confirmed command, which is considered very strong.

Saber-Scouting continues by stating,

Inoa’s mechanics are clean and the ball “comes out of his hand shockingly easy,” according to another source. Inoa comes from an athletic family, has a clean and fluid arm action, and earns high marks for his makeup and work ethic.

High praise for a 16 year old.

Inoa also possesses a curve ball, which rates out as a plus pitch, and a splitter which has been called 'dirty'. Owning a plus third pitch, combined with solid command and a reported strong mound presence is what makes Inoa an easy signing, even for the small market Athletics.

Saber-Scouting continues grading out Inoa's pitches on the traditionally used 20-80 scale. The first figure is his current rating, while the second represents a projection-which is nearly impossible to do, given Inoa's lack of professional instruction:

Fastball: 55/70
Curveball: 50/60
Splitter: 45/55
Command: 45/60

Not the best, but spectacular from a 16 year old. Given some proper coaching, and monitoring of usage, and it would not come as a surprise to anyone to see Inoa in the majors before his 20th birthday. Hopefully I am still around and writing by that time.

International Signing Day

Tomorrow (July 2) begins the start of Major League Baseball's International Signing Day. Some of the majors biggest stars have come from this day, which primarily focuses upon Latin American and the Caribbean. Recent years have seen signing bonuses shoot through the roof, however they have not reached a point where the small market clubs are left with bidding on the weakest players. Instead, much of the work is done as the kids develop through team baseball academies, of which is something every team has in almost every country.

However, as the cost of players increases, a time may come where International signings are for the have's, while the have-not's will have to increase their research efforts. According to Baseball America,

Last year, three players received $1 million or more: Red Sox third baseman Michael Almanzar ($1.5 million), Yankees outfielder Kelvin De Leon ($1.1 million) and Mariners shortstop Jharmidy DeJesus ($1 million).

Wily Mo Pena's $2.44 million bonus from the Yankees in 1999 is the record for an international amateur signing...

ESPN.com Enrique Rojas writes that the International Signing Day has become auction-like for Latin American teenagers. Currently, there have been two signings as those players turned 17 prior to the signing day, thus, making them eligible free agents. As per Baseball America,

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

All this leads to an exciting time in baseball as the top international prospects can be considered as extensions of the first round. Which leads to the question of why teams hesitate to dish out first round money to international players whom the team then has superior control of. That is, signing a 16 year old and controlling what he throws, how often he throws, and how he throws for an extra 2 to 4 years.

The consensus top player to be signed on July 2nd, is Dominican right handed starting pitcher Michel Inoa. The 16 year old is already 6'7" and weighs 205lbs. In other words, the boy is already a man. Scouting reports from both Baseball America and ESPNDeportes suggest that Inoa throws 91-94mph and does so under impressive control, some project that his fastball could consistently reach 100mph once he fills out. Inoa also possesses what is being called two potentially plus pitches, which he already controls.

According to Baseball America, "Several scouts have told BA that Inoa is a once-in-a-generation talent..." Given the amount of hype, and dollars that are being thrown around in this bidding war, that sentiment is agreed upon even with Major League GM's. As is, reports are suggesting that the Oakland Athletics are poised to break the bank with a signing bonus of $4.25M. Considering the Tigers spent a guaranteed $11M on Rick Porcello-albeit over 4 years-this contract is fairly reasonable.

This $4.25M signing bonus will be the largest the Athletics have ever given to an amateur player.

ESPN provides the next top prospects to be signed outside of Inoa and the Juan Duran, the prospect the Reds signed recently. Here they are, scouting reports at ESPN.com:

2 Yorman Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Venezuela

3 Adis Portillo RHP 16 (Dec. 20, 1991) Venezuela

4 Rafael Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Dominican Republic

5 Luis Domoromo OF 16 (Feb. 4, 1992) Venezuela

6 Alvaro Aristy SS 16 (Dec. 9, 1991) Dominican Republic

7 Gustavo Pierre SS 16 (N/A) Dominican

8 Santo Franco RHP 16 (Nov. 28, 1991) Dominican

9 Swarling Jimenez LHP 16 (Nov. 27, 1991) Dominican Republic

10 Elvin Tavarez RHP 16 (Sept. 7, 1991) Dominican

11 Julio Morban OF 16 (Feb. 13, 1992) Dominican

12 Ramon Flores OF 16 (March 26, 1992) Dominican

13 Jose Valdivia RHP 16 (March 19, 1992)

14 Carlos Perez LHP 16 (Nov. 20, 1991) Dominican

I will try to announce these signings as they occur. While it will be at least 5 years before we see any of these players in the majors, many of these players will have as much value as the televised MLB draft.

MLB's Rule IV Draft

With MLB's Rule IV draft but days away, here is an explanation of how the draft works at Baseball America (courtesy MLB Trade Rumors). The Rule IV draft, for those who do not know, is baseball's amateur draft where highschoolers and college players alike have their hopes and dreams of heading towards their childhood dream come true.

According to MLB.com,

MLB.com will have exclusive coverage of the remaining rounds on Day 1 with live analysis from The Milk House by Draft expert Jonathan Mayo. Coverage will begin at 11:30 a.m. on Day 2 and continue through to the final pick. MLB.com's coverage will also feature two days of live video from Florida on BaseballChannel.TV.

In addition, MLB.com's live Draft Tracker will provide a searchable database of every Draft-eligible player that will feature biographical data, statistics, scouting reports and, in many cases, scouting video.

This will be the first year that the MLB draft is open to fans and will undoubtedly head in the direction of making the draft more of an event. With MLB's 24-hour channel on the horizon, the league certainly wants to ensure that all the draft day kinks are ironed out before jumping feet first into the venture.

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo has done an outstanding job covering the draft, providing readers with a weekly report on the players who have declared for the draft. Check it out.

Over at Minor League Ball.com, John Sickels provides his readers with a first round mock draft, selecting 30 players involved in the 'regular' picks, and 29 'supplemental picks'. Here is a sneak preview of John's top 10 as well as the token Canadian highschooler:

1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Seems like the most logical pick to me.
2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Pirates prove they are willing to spend $$.
3) Royals: Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Royals opt for close-to-ready bat.
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Can't pass him up.
5) Giants: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Excellent bat, close to ready.
6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: The rumors make sense to me.
7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Best player available.
8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: System thin on hitting could use him.
9) Nationals: Aaron Hicks, RHP, California HS: Nats decide he's a pitcher.
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: Astros opt for "safe" college pitcher.
14) Twins: Brett Lawrie, INF, Canada HS: Twins pick cold-weather bat, hoping for another Morneau and worried that he won't last to 27.

Jonathan Mayo also has his first round mock draft at MLB.com. There are not a whole lot of deviations from the predictions as both seem to be following their leads from MLB executives and scouts a like.

What is most interesting about projecting the draft is how much of a crap shoot the MLB draft is. While teams are certainly becoming more efficient with their scouting, having to wait 2 or 3 years for even the best prospects is a troubling task for many fans. This year, it is said that there is truly no consensus #1 pick and unlike many years, the draft does not appear to be incredibly deep. Which leads me to wonder, why are the Rays looking for 'best available' when they could potentially fill a hole with a quick signing relief pitcher that is major league ready but has a relatively low ceiling.

Enjoy the coverage.

Adam Miller Watch - Whoa! Really?

In what was reported to be a simple callous on a finger of Adam Miller's throwing hand, has turned out to be a season ending injury. As I wrote earlier this week, I was skeptical about whether or not the reports of the injury being simply a callous were correct.

According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer,

Lonnie Soloff, Indians head athletic trainer, said Miller will be out for eight weeks. He can then resume a throwing program, which essentially will take him to the end of the minor league season at Class AAA Buffalo.

Miller, who missed all of spring training with the big-league club because of a callous on the same finger, originally injured the tendon last year. He injured it once during the season and once again in the Arizona Fall League.

This year Miller was pitching well for Buffalo, but the unattached tendon in the finger caused a fistula to develop on the second crease of the underside of the finger between two callouses. Soloff said Dr. Graham determined that the fistula, a hole in the skin, which could lead to infection, would not close if the tendon wasn't re-attached to the bone.

While there is still hope that Miller will be able to pitch at some point this season, the Indians management are going to have to look long and hard at the long term value of Miller. While many asserted that he was destined to the bullpen because of his continual injury issues, there was hope that he would be able to get past the issues which have plagued his professional career.

Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com had the following report,

"It's a challenging injury," Soloff said. "It was a very challenging procedure to perform."

Miller actually suffered the injury a year ago and missed six weeks of action with the Bisons while resting the strain. The Indians felt Miller could get by without surgery.

But as a result of the strain, Miller's tendon would bowstring, and his skin sagged when his finger bent. That caused the skin to rub up against the baseball, creating two hardened calluses. Between those calluses, a hole developed in the skin.

Graham found that Miller's tendons were starting to fray and his finger's pulley system -- in layman's terms, the system that allows his finger to bend -- was not working properly.

"Closing [the hole in] the skin would not be enough [for Miller] to pitch at a high level," Soloff said.

While the Indians medical staff annually ranks among the elite in the business, there is little doubt that they have misdiagnosed Miller to this point. That is not to say that they have at all harmed Miller, rather, it is to say that the direction the club took with Miller was misguided. There is little doubt in my mind at this point, that Miller will not be given any more shots at proving he is capable of being a major league starter, his role will now be to work out of the bullpen.

This news is especially damaging to the Indians organization at it appeared they were prepared to go in one of two directions. The first, was to bring Miller up and give him a shot at long relief, expanding his bullpen role as he proved to be capable of doing so. The second, was to look into bringing in a quality major league bat. Jason Bay's name had been linked with the Indians in the off season, but the Pirates decided to hold out building Bay's value. With the way Bay is currently playing and the amount remaining on his contract, a Bay for Miller swap did not seem out of the question. That speculation however, can all but be disregarded.


I will continue to follow Adam Miller in hopes of uncovering any reason behind the continual problems he is having despite no obvious mechanical issues. I hope to also dig up some information on how Miller himself feels about the circumstances of this major injury.

Adam Miller Watch - He's On the DL!

The Cleveland Indians top prospect, Adam Miller, and the focus of many posts here at The Outsiders Look, is heading to the disabled list, according to Bisons.com. The website is not reporting a retroactive date, which leads me to believe he may be out for some time (although I have emailed some sources and hope to have an update on the extent of Miller's injury specifically).

The Buffalo News is reporting that Miller has been placed on the DL due to "a broken callous on his pitching hand." Further information was released a day later suggesting that the injury is specifically related to a finger. Indians.com is reporting that the callous is on the same finger as the blister which caused Miller to delay the start of his season. With how Miller came back so strong, it is startling that the blister went away and then essential reappeared.

I have also received word that the callous is, in most cases, is similar to a blister, which again, makes me wonder how Miller went from a blister in Spring to having a clean hand, to again developing an issue with this finger. The injury is especially worrisome in it's severity as according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto, Miller was on the verge of a call-up to help strengthen the bullpen.

I will be adding more information as it arrives.



Update - 05/27/2008 - 12:22 PM EST
Josh Weir of the Canton Rep. is reporting that the callous is on the same finger that Miller strained a ligament on last year and consequently landed him on the disabled list. This injury issue is interesting as by most accounts, Miller has an easy and smooth delivery. Few, if anyone report any major mechanical flaws. This reminds me of Josh Beckett's battle with blisters. I will do some digging and see what was Beckett did to get past those issues.

Clayton Kershaw - Blogging it Out

DirecTV is stepping it up with their latest ad campaign, so I figured it was only right that I did as well, so here I am, Blogging it Out.

Clayton Kershaw, the 'most hyped' Dodgers prospect in recent memory takes the mound for his major league debut this afternoon, taking the place of DFA'ed Esteban Loaiza. By now, I'm certain everyone had heard about that, so really nothing to report on that front.

We are one out into the second inning and Kershaw looks good, but not great, although what do you expect from a kid who two years ago was trying to figure out whether or not he would be stood up for prom. After 32 first inning pitches, Kershaw allowed an RBI double to Albert Pujols on one of Kershaw's patent big hooks. Relying on only his curve and fastball, hitters seemed to have a beat on the kid in the first inning. He has since turned things around and has induced two groundball outs to go along with four strikeouts.

His 'stuff' has always ranked as that of an ace and that has turned up throughout the minors. The Hardball Times published an article about Kershaw this week titled, 'Is Clayton Kershaw Worth the Hype?' Here are some highlights from that article:

Fastball - Kershaw's fastball sits anywhere from 93-96 with a good amount of late movement.

However, he still needs to command the pitch better, even though he generally has good control of it. I also think he may have some extra velocity in the tank if he needs it.

Grade: 60 now, 70 future

Curveball—Kershaw's curveball (as seen at the start of this article) is an 11-to-6 knee buckler with substantial bite. The pitch is usually in the mid-70s. Like the fastball, he can do a better job commanding the pitch.

Also worth pointing out is Kershaw's ability to get hitters gearing up for something hard when he throws his curveball because the intent he throws with and the mechanics he displays are the same whether throwing a fastball at 95 mph or a curveball at 75 mph.

Grade: 65 now, 70 future

Change-up—This is a pitch Kershaw is still honing. The pitch shows a solid fading action and he shows good feel for throwing the pitch, but he has to work on keeping the same arm speed he uses to throw his fastball; he has to do a better job of selling the pitch. By most accounts, he has made tremendous strides in improving his change-up since being drafted in 2006.

Grade: 45-50 now, 55 future

Overall, Kershaw has the potential to have two of the most dominant pitches in the majors. The author asserts that there aren't any serious red flags among Clayton's stuff. From what I have seen to this point, the stuff looks 'explosive' more then 'electric'. That is to say, he has the control and the velocity that is ideal, but the movement, from what I have seen, is less then stellar.

Let's see what MLB Gameday has to say about that. Kershaw's curveball shows outstanding movement, as is expected from a pitcher with such a devastating hook. However, his fastball is straight and does not have an overwhelming amount of sink. These are things that can help a pitcher in the minor leagues, but I wonder what Kershaw will do if his curve is not working one day. Furthermore, I am curious how he will get through a batting order the third time through in the second or third time facing the same club.

That is, as of today, team's are at the plate guessing what pitch is coming next. A hitter is not aware of the patterns Kershaw displays nor can they be expected to know what is coming in most counts.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had the following to write about Kershaw, while naming him the #1 prospect in the Dodgers organization and #5 in all of baseball (I tabbed Kershaw as the #1 prospect in all of baseball):

The Good: Once scout classified Kershaw as the best left-hander he's ever seen in the Midwest League. His fastball sits at 93-95 mph, can touch 98, and comes in on right-handed hitters with hard, boring action. He backs up the pitch with a plus-plus slow, looping curveball that freezes batters the second it comes out of his hand. His changeup has advanced to an average pitch, and he has the perfect pitcher's build, a smooth, easy delivery, and maturity beyond his years.
The Bad: Kershaw struggles at times with his command, and he doesn't compensate for it well, often grooving hittable fastball when he falls behind in the count. He needs to find more confidence in his changeup and mix it into his arsenal more often.
Fun Fact: Highland Park High School has a wide-ranging list of alumni, including Padres righty Chris Young, 1950s bombshell Jayne Mansfield, and almost-presidential assassin John Hinckley, Jr.
Perfect World Projection: Kershaw has all of the raw tools to be a major league ace of the highest level.

And let's check out what John Sickels at Minor League Ball has to say about Kershaw:

Physicality, Health, and Tools
Kershaw is 6-3, 210 pounds, a lefthanded hitter and thrower, born March 19, 1988. He is athletic and usually repeats his delivery well, although occasionally his release point will slip which hurts his command. His fastball is consistently in the low 90s and can hit 95-96 MPH at times. His curveball is excellent, and he's made major strides improving his changeup. Kershaw should have three above-average to excellent major league pitches, and as he refines his command he should have a dominating combination of plus stuff and sharp control. So far he has had no major health concerns.

As you can see, Kershaw received rave reviews from 'experts'. In this afternoon's game Kershaw has gotten his fastball up to 97mph and his curveball has been dropping down to 72mph. While both are explosive pitches, they undeniably have a different release point and delivery. I believe once hitters begin to recognize this, they will start hitting Kershaw hard. Vin Scully commented that Kershaw throws his fastball at 'maximum effort'.

What I have loved about Kershaw is his ability to run fastballs inside on right handed hitters. Either a letter high or belt high fastball has been swung on and missed multiple times in this outing and in essentially every pitch, Kershaw would have posted a called strike.

To this point, it appears as though Kershaw has thrown one change up, which surprised Pujols. I was shocked to see that FSN West Plus had it clocked at 84mph as it looked to be much slower.


This is definitely an exciting debut for the 20 year old however I'm not sure the Dodgers should keep him up with the big league club all season until he is at the very least comfortable in throwing his change up if (when) needed.

Adam Miller Watch - May 15, 2008 in Review

Check out MiLB.com's Gameday for Adam Miller's showing against the PawSox on May 15, 2008.

In another quality start, Miller held the PawSox to two runs over six innings while just missing out on the complete game. This has got to go down as Adam's most efficient start of the season and one in which he would look to build on going forward. The one thing that is worrisome about this start is the lack of strikes which Adam threw, something Lovullo touched on in the post game press conference (below). This same lack of control is something that would cause Miller a lot more trouble in the majors and may be something that keeps him in Triple A all season.

This, however, would hurt Miller's shot at making a bid for the bullpen down the stretch, a position Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer believed was to be Miller's ticket to the bigs for 2008. That is, if a pitcher cannot throw strikes in the first inning when they have some leeway in terms of allowing base runners and consequently runs, how will he make an impact with the bullpen.

What is most alarming in my estimation is the amount of hitters Miller is starting off with a ball. Against the PawSox on the 15th Miller started three of the first six hitters off with a ball. One of the three that had a strike swung at a pitch that looked to be well out of the zone. Interestingly, two of the three that started the at bat out with a ball ended up on base.

The second and third innings saw Miller be around the plate where he racked up his first strikeout. Still, even in Miller's best inning he started a third of the hitters off with a ball.

In the forth inning, Miller's inability to finish off a hitter could have easily been exposed. What is interesting about this inning is the ability of the hitters to not chance pitches out of the strike zone. That is, a pitcher with the kind of stuff that Miller possesses should be able to trick hitters more frequently. What this tells me is that Miller is not being very deceptive and is being too predictable. Throwing a slider in certain counts and staying away form it in others. This could be a lack of confidence in the pitch, or a worry that his injury may sneak back up.

The fifth inning MiLB Gameday data shows that Miller was extremely close to the zone with all of his pitches. Despite starting two of three hitters out with balls Miller was just missing. Again, the concern about being unable to fool hitters arises, as Miller is not going to continue to have such fortune with balls in play in every start. That is, however, unless Miller is doing such a good job at tricking hitters that they are unable to put good wood on the balls.

Much the same in the sixth inning, with two of the three batters Miller faced taking the first pitch for a ball. The hitters appeared to be seeing the ball quite well at this point, as they were taking a lot of early swings and connecting. Fortunately for Miller, the balls were hit directly to his fielders.

While the control for Miller still is not there and the strikeout rate does leave a little to be desired Miller is inducing a good number of ground balls. The line drive rate is not out of this world and he is obviously doing something right to own a 0.0 home run per fly ball rate.

Check out Torey Lovullo's post game press conference, here where he comments on Miller's start and briefly touches on the struggles Miller has endured to this point.

Adam Miller Watch - May 9, 2008 in Review

The Adam Miller watch returns in what may be a rain out here in Buffalo. It is the middle of May and Miller is yet to pitch in a game where the weather cooperated for him. However, maybe that has come as a good thing as Miller has not allowed an earned run in 3 of his 4 starts to date. It also should be noted that Miller had his best start of the season following his worst.

On May 9th, Miller pitched five very strong innings, allowing only 3 hits and surrendering 2 walks while accumulating 4 strikeouts. Each of the hits Miller surrendered were for singles with one of the hitters making it to second on a steal. I am curious as to whether or not Miller's tall stature has an effect on how effective he can be controlling the running game.

It is interesting to note that Miller threw only 54 of 85 pitches for strikes. To date, his control still is not entirely there. He does have the stuff to succeed while being wild in the minors, but major league hitters would eat him up.

In viewing last week's MiLB Gameday, we can see that Miller started off this start with two strikeouts, both on swinging strikes on pitches in the zone. I have noticed that a lot of Miller's pitches are being fouled off and am curious what relationship this has with how Miller is currently pitching.

In the second inning, Miller was battling with every hitter he faced, allowing the first two to reach on singles after multiple balls were fouled off. As you can see with the at bat against Buscher (image right), we can see that Miller appeared to be unable to truly trick the journeyman. For a pitcher of Miller's stuff, he should not have this type of difficulty in getting a hitter to hit his pitch. Another thing to take note of, Miller was fortunate that two of five hitters he faced put the ball in play on the first pitch of the at bat. Even still, Miller allowed three base runners on 25 pitches. Fortunate for Adam was a nicely turned double play.

The third inning was a different story for Adam as he was able to set the side down in order along with a dominating strikeout against hot hitting Denard Span.

Entering the bottom of the forth, Miller had thrown 43 pitches and was looking as if he could eat up some serious innings and possibly earn a victory. He kept this up by throwing 7 pitches on his way to setting down the side.

Up by two runs, Miller had just posted two of his most efficient back to back innings of the season. After this point, Adam was poised to go 7, if not 8 innings for the longest start of his young season. That, however came to a quick close as he again struggled to put a hitter away. Garrett Jones, whom you might otherwise know for his outstanding minor league on base percentage (.325) took Miller to the ropes lining out to center on 8 pitches. Another 6 pitches to Morales and Miller has sat down to hitters on a total of 14 pitches. However, things began to again unfurl as hitters continued to foul pitches off and Miller could not fool anyone with a pitch outside of the strike zone. An 8 pitch at bat and Basak reaches on a soft fly ball to left, Casilla walks on 5 pitches (4 straight balls) and finally Miller finishes off the inning. Although not before throwing 8 pitches to Span. In total, the fifth inning took Miller 35 pitches, jumping him up to 85 and consequently ending his evening.

A (different) source close to the team reported that Miller is still working in the low 90s and is improving with each start. Additionally, the news is good from the perspective of the Cleveland Indians as Miller has been holding up fine to date.

Adam Miller Watch - May 9, 2008

The return of the Adam Miller Watch comes at you after the worst statistical start of Miller's season. Miller's last start on May 4th, was a relatively shaky one, in which he was more the victim of bad luck then terrible pitching. This was noted in last week's Miller Watch when I discussed the play by play action of the game as I saw it unfold live. I do however want to make note that I am worried with how Miller was working behind in many of the counts.

On May 4th, Miller started the game off strong, striking out two in the first inning and beginning four of the five hitters he faced with a first pitch strike.

When Miller allowed two hits in the second inning, you could see his location was beginning to fade and he was not able to fool many of the hitters he faced. During this inning, three of five hitters started their at bats out with a ball.

This trend continued as Miller missed the strike zone to all but three of the first eight hitters he faced. Keep in mind, one of those three was a first pitch single that plated two of the three runs Miller allowed in that inning.

During the forth inning, Miller looked to be reestablishing himself early on against hitters, forcing them to go after his stuff. After two quick outs he again struggled to find the strike zone early and fell behind the next two hitters he would face. At this point, it was obvious Miller was laboring as he was clearing his season high for pitches thrown and had done so with a great amount of stress considering the amount of base runners he had allowed to this point.

As mentioned, luck played a role in the lack of success Miller had on that Sunday afternoon. The weather was not the best for a ballgame, especially for a kid from Texas. However, the biggest issue Miller ran into, was not being able to control hitters. He was constantly putting himself into situations where he was behind in the count and thus was forced to throw strikes. While Adam has the stuff to get by in instances where he is struggling to locate, occasionally the balls will simply fall into play, even greater are the chances of this happening when you are playing in front of Minor League defense.

A couple positives to take from this start. The first, despite Miller's lack of control, he managed to only allow one walk. Possibly Miller could have been a little more careful in hitters counts to not entirely give in. Second, Miller induced the most strike outs per inning of his short season. Although the negative of this is that it took more plate appearances then Adam's previous time out, the stat of K/9 increased, if ever so slightly.


A source close to the team is reporting that Miller's fastball has been working in the 90 to 93mph range. This is about where Torey Lovullo suggested it would be for much of the season as Adam focuses more on how to pitch.

My source also tells me that Miller has stated he is feeling fine, however he is frustrated with his location. Obviously with how Adam's track record, we can see that his walks are an anomaly and are presumably more due to rust then his actual ability. However, it isn't as if Miller's walk rate is terrible. So this could in fact be Miller's frustration with being unable to get ahead of hitters early.

Overall, my source tells me Miller hasn't felt as crisp as he would like. This, as I am told, is part of the reason why Miller has not been working very far into games. Keep in mind however, that Miller is essentially in Mid-April form instead of approaching Mid-May form. Even a minor set back, like the blisters Adam started the season with can have a major effect on a pitchers performance well into the season.

In addition to this, I am curious if Miller is holding something back. My source tells me Miller has hit 95mph at least once on the ballpark radar gun. For a pitcher who typically works in the mid 90s this could either be Miller trying a new approach (as asserted by Lovullo) or this could be Miller cautioning against injury.


I will be in Detroit for the Tigers-Yankees game and to set a long time friend off (aka Bachelor Party) so I won't be able to do my usual pitch-by-pitch analysis on the game. I will return for Miller's following start having hopefully attended the game in Buffalo that evening-weather permitting.

Adam Miller Watch - May 4, 2008

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported that Miller's fastball was being clocked at 93 MPH in Spring Training, which is excellent for a pitcher who missed a great deal of the 2007 season. In a recent Hey Hoynsie, Hoynes responds to a question about Adam Miller,

Miller recently rejoined Class AAA Buffalo after spending much of April in extended spring training in Winter Haven, Fla. He still hasn't recovered all his arm strength from last year, when he tore a ligament in his right middle finger and injured his right elbow. A blister on the same finger caused him to miss a great deal of spring training this year.

At full strength, Miller throws between 94 mph and 100 mph. He could help the Tribe in the pen or rotation if he can stay healthy.

While it is possible that Miller returns to the mid/high 90s form of his pre-injury days, Torey Lovullo however, asserted that it is probably unreasonable to think that Miller will be the pitcher of old. Hoynes does, however, bring up an interesting comment regarding Miller to the bullpen or rotation if healthy.

From what I have seen and recorded to date, Miller looks as though his confidence is rising, however his stamina and stuff is still slightly lacking. He has made hitters look foolish on occasion, but he is still lack that killer instinct that a pitcher with his ability needs. Think Jake Peavy over Daniel (or closer to home, Fernando) Cabrera. That, I'm going to throw strikes and you can't hit 'em mentality.


With Miller's start having been rained out yesterday, he will take the bump in the first of a double header. With Miller's arm strength building, and the game being shortened due to IL rules that limit doubleheader games to 7 innings, Miller is looking for his first victory of 2008, that will hopefully not be spoiled by the bullpen.

One thing that I would really like to see in Miller's start this afternoon, is more control of the plate. Having walked 10% of the batters he has faced, Miller has not done himself any favors, although this is not a terrible figure, consider that in 2007 Fausto Carmona sat just inside the top 30 with a 6.9%.

I will be keeping my eye on the game and giving some more feedback as Miller pitches. It is currently cool sitting in the low 50s. The sun is shining and the forecast is calling for a bright afternoon with some winds blowing from the west. Right handed hitters may see some of the balls off their bats fly a little bit longer because of that and we'll keep it in mind for when Miller is on the mound.



Update - 05/04/08 - 1:10 PM EST
Jerry Owens took the first ball for a called ball, took the next pitch for a strike, fouled the next pitch off and then nubbed a tough pitch to second.
Jason Bourgeois rolled an easy roller to Josh Barfield who didn't take his time and produced an error. This is how a pitch count gets high.
Larry Wise worked his way into a hitters count and lined one the opposite way to left fielder Ben Francisco.
Miller is looking strong against Brad Eldred. He made him look foolish on the first pitch of the at bat. Miller finished him off with a nice inside fastball.
Jeff Liefer is at the plate and starts off behind fouling off the first pitch. The second pitch Miller pounded low and inside. With pitch three Miller gets Liefer to swing at a pitch out of the zone.

After 1 Inning, Miller has 2 strikeouts, 1 hit and has thrown 21 pitches, 15 for strikes. He looks sharp out there and is rolling.

Update - 05/04/08 - 1:40PM EST
Miller will take the hill in the 2nd inning with a 4-0 lead. The Bisons put together a nice inning, but did benefit from some luck. The wind, as previously mentioned, does appear to be adding some issues to the balls. Bisons announcers Ben Wagner also mentioned that the pitches were worried about balking. Lets hope that doesn't play a role this inning.

Chris Getz comes to the plate to start the inning and grounds out to first on a 1 and 1 pitch.
Ex-Bison Mike Rouse comes to the plate and whiffs on a slider, then grounds out to second base. Miller looks sharp. He is staying in the zone and attacking the hitters.
Ball one, high and inside to Paul Phillips followed by a fastball strike. Working ahead, Miller tried to get Phillips to chase a ball low and away. Phillips was fortunate to push one the opposite way on a nice low and away pitch by Miller. That should have been an out.
Fernando Cortez takes ball one in a pitch Miller forget to follow through on. Miller seems to be trying to get a little too cute, not trusting his stuff. Cortez singles up the middle on a hitters count.
Jerry Owens returns to the plate and takes the first pitch outside for a ball. In a 2-1 count, Owens grounded out to first. This was essentially the same ball that Phillips hit for a single. I love Minor League Ball!

Miller didn't have the same control in this inning allowing 2 hits without recording a strikeout. Miller threw 11 of 19 pitches for strikes.

Ben Wagner mentions that Miller is again on a pitch count, suggesting he will be held to under 100 pitches again.

Update - 05/04/08 - 1:58 PM EST
Still leading 4-0, Miller looks for a quick inning to put him on pace to claim a victory.

Bourgeois is one of only 3 right handed hitters Miller will face today and allows a 1-1 single on a tough pitch low and outside (being called a 'slider without bite'). It helped that Bisons third basemen Arron Herr was cheating in for a bunt.
Larry Wise flared one to left field that was boosted by the wind keeping it out of reach from Ben Francisco.
With nobody out, Eldred is up and singles to right. A pair is knocked in on a first pitch that was low and away. A great throw and an even better hit. Miller allows his first two runs of the season.
Jeff Liefer (image left) is at the plate and Miller is struggling to hit the strike zone. Liefer pulls one between the first and second in a play that would have been made had there not been a runner on first.
Getz takes the first pitch for a ball and then whiffs on an inside fastball. Getting the count back in Miller's favor, he throws another one low and inside. The lefties seem to be having a tough time with that pitch. Miller flares one to Barfield for a force out at second.
With runner's on first and third, Mike Rouse comes to the plate. First pitch comes in for a called strike. As does the second. Miller throws the 4th fastball of the at bat high and outside. Srikeout #3.
Catcher Paul Phillips takes a called strike on the outside edge. He lays off the second pitch in the same place for a ball. He then weakly pulls the third pitch to shallow left field.
Fernando Cortez takes the first pitch for a ball. Miller has definitely taken a step back in this inning and cannot catch a break (or a corner). Going back inside (where he seems more comfortable), Miller gets Cortez to foul one off. He follows that with a sharp slider for a called strike. A soft roller to first ends the inning for Miller, but his final line is not pretty.

It took Miller 28 pitches to get through this inning, 19 went for strikes. Keep in mind however, that a ball hit in play counts as a strike. Miller was much shakier then the 68% of strikes represents. 5 hits and 3 runs allowed, as well as racking up a strikeout.

The good news, only one hit went for an extra base.

Update - 05/04/08 - 2:19 PM EST
The Bisons go down in order for the first time this game. Charlotte Knights pitcher Jack Egbert seems to be getting stronger while Miller has been showing signs of rust.

Speaking with Bisons Manager Torey Lovullo reports that Miller will be throwing some other pitches, not relying so heavily on the fastball. What fastballs he will throw, Lovullo says will be low.

Jerry Owens is at the plate first and takes two or three pitches for strikes, all three have been low. The forth pitch was a called strike cutter. Owens didn't lift the bat off his shoulder.
Bourgeois flares a broken bat ball into foul ground on the first base side. That should have been an out. Second pitch went for a called strike which looked like a slider. Bourgeois pulls a hard one foul and then fists one to short.
Wise (image right) is two for two and is fortunate I'm not at the game. The second pitch was a beautiful inside fastball. In a hitters count, Wise pulled an inside fastball for a double.
Eldred takes the first two pitches inside for balls. He has a 3-0 count and is not the type who would hesitate to swing at a 'get em over' fastball. But Miller has battled back and gotten the count full. Finishing off Eldred would be great for Miller here. Another foul and I am assuming Miller will not come out for the 5th inning. Miller walks Eldred on a very close pitch inside.
Liefer should not be on a minor league team. He fouled off the first two pitches (action in the bullpen) both of which seemed out of the zone. Another three fouls and the count is still at 1-2. Liefer lines one DIRECTLY at Sandoval that bounces into left field for a single scoring the forth run of the game for the Knights.

Miller reaches 96 pitches and leaves the game. He threw 62 pitches for strikes and finishes with a line of:
3.2 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB and 4 K.

The biggest positives that can be taken from this are that Miller looked outstanding in the first inning. Second to that, is the fact that Miller allowed only two extra base hits.

Not getting in front of hitters hurt Miller. Being unable to finish off hitters also hurt the youngster. I can't imagine Miller will be too happy about this game.

Adam Miller Watch - April 28, 2008

After a successful return to the Hill for the 2008 season, Adam Miller will look to build off of what should have been a nice win. Without the errors and a little bit better fielding, I believe Miller would have made it through 6 innings without issue.

Let's take a walk through Adam's first start of the season using MiLB's Gameday.

Miller went 5 innings sticking to around the pitch count that Torey Lovullo suggested he would be at. Although I imagine had things went a little bit better for Miller, in terms of luck, he would have went on for a another 5 to 10 pitches. And as I mentioned, should have been able to make it through 6 innings, it not more.

The MiLB Gameday is not as detailed as MLB's, however it does give us a good impression of what the hitters were seeing and how the pitcher either tricked the hitters or was very predictable.

In the 1st inning, Adam Miller struck out Brett Gardner, the first hitter he faced in the season on a 4th pitch swinging strike. It was a pitch that was on the outside edge of the plate. The second batter Miller faced was Bernie Castro who walked on seven pitches, then moved to second on a passed ball. Castro fouled off three pitches as Miller worked mostly on the outside edge of the plate. Juan Miranda moved Castro from 2nd to 3rd as he grounds out in what would have been an inning ending double play (according to the Buffalo radio announcers). During this at bat Miller missed outside with his first two pitches, followed by a swinging strike inside. He hit his spot with pitch four on a called strike and and on pitch number five he left it over the plate a little bit where Miranda hit the ball to first. Shelly Duncan then managed to single in Castro looping an Adam Miller slider down the left field line. Miller was actually lucky to only allow a single as the slider went right down the middle of the plate. Miller was able to get out of the inning without allowing an earned run when Jason Lane grounded out to first; this, after he swung and missed on two fastballs. The first of which was out of the zone. Not a bad first inning, 2 strikeouts, a walk, a hit and an unearned run.

For the 2nd inning, Miller was working with a nice lead and seemed to be pitching, instead of throwing. While he still had issues hitting the outside edge of the plate, he did enough to get through the inning in order on only 10 pitches (7 strikes), zero of which were called strikes or swinging strikes. First basemen Eric Duncan was the first to the plate and Miller followed the scouting report keeping the ball away. Duncan ended up pulling the forth pitch he saw to second base for an easy ground out. Journeyman Nick Green was next to the plate and Miller made quick work of him, keeping the ball outside and getting a fly out to the opposite way in right field. Miller cannot be happy with his pitch selection against Greg Porter, however he did get him to ground out to short on 4 pitches (2 in the zone fouls).

Miller entered the 3rd inning with yet another run, but was not as sharp as he was in the second, allowing a hit and a walk. 32 pitches into his first start seems a little early to struggle, but since Miller made it out of the inning fine, it is nothing to worry about. Catcher Chris Stewart got onto first with a line drive up the middle. Stewart also took two called strikes, which were pitches that were low and in the zone, I'm guessing one of the two was Miller's signature slide piece. Brett Gardner saw four pitches, each of which were outside. Pitch one and two were perfectly placed pitches with pitch three being an obvious 'chase' pitch. Miller then missed his spot a little, but Gardner flew out to left center. Castro then worked a seven pitch at bat for a walk, he took pitch two and three for called strikes on the outside, probably a good idea given the pitch location. Pitch five and seven look to be very close pitches, low and right down the middle. With two on and one out, Miller faced his biggest test to date (image left). A nine pitch at bat which involved two swinging strikes and two pitches down the middle that were fouled off. Miller got by on his stuff during this battle, good to see from a guy coming back from an injury. Miller continued to show his ability to pitch, working both the inside and outside of the plate. It still appears as if he is struggling with location, but getting Duncan to ground out on six pitches (with an in the zone swinging strike) ended the inning.