Curiosity Kills Something

Right, it's playoff time and I'm making a quick post about a single-A catcher, deal with it. I made my Division Series picks at the final hour over on my twitter page (yea, I "tweet") and also promised for a post that evening - best unemployed writer, ever!

Anyways, there has been a fair amount of negative things written about Nationals catching prospect Derek Norris. Here are comments by two of the industries most well-known prospect authors.

• Kevin Goldstein stated, "[Norris] became an on-base machine with little power" while giving him a mulligan due to injuries (I'll touch on these later).
• Jason Gray wrote, "Norris will look to rebound from a subpar season in the Carolina League, where he hit .235 and slugged just .419."

Truth be told, I actually thought there was more negative press about the 21 year old. However, we still have two authors who walked away unimpressed with the power that Norris displayed in 2010.

Quick explanation. Keith Law wrote in a recent chat transcript that it isn't uncommon for hitters to take a year to a year and a half to recover their power stroke after a hamate injury. I have read that similar power sapping can occur to wrist injuries. The hamate bone is, from my non-medical opinion, a part of the wrist, and as such, Derek Norris' power sapping should not have been too much of a surprise.

Norris also suffered a minor concussion when he was hit in the head by a "96mph fastball". Which Norris admitted took him a fair amount of plate appearances to bounce back from, something his month-by-month statistics show as this was the only full month where Norris posted an OPS under .830 (keep this number in mind for later). Even his playoff-shortened month of September had Norris posting an OPS of .865 (if my math is correct).

Of course we don't want to altogether eliminate Norris' month of June, but we can see that something might not have been right that month, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that it had to do with having just taken a fastball off the head.

Neither of which is the point. The point here is that Norris didn't really have that bad of a season. In fact, his power numbers as is would suffice in the big leagues.

Consider where he would stand with those numbers at the show. These numbers I am speaking of are the end of season line of an .838 OPS and an ISO of .184.

Among catchers with 390 plate appearances (Norris had 387) there are 20 qualified catchers, five of whom posted an OPS higher then Norris' .838, while six put up an ISO over Norris' .184.

In other words, if Norris' numbers translated cleanly to major league baseball, he suffered a serious hand injury, and a concussion, we're looking at a top 5 or 6 hitting catcher in baseball. Keep in mind Norris is also putting in a conscious effort to being a better defensive catcher, something we all know a guy like Jorge Posada could care less about.


Derek Norris is one of my favorite prospects and should be one of yours as well. Keep his name in mind over the next 20 months or so, because he'll be making a splash in Washington while Stephen Strasberg is making a push for his first Cy Young award.


Quick question, is the catcher position getting "deep"? There are a fair amount of highly regarded youngsters that are already in the majors, and we should see another handful or so in the next year.

Wahn, Wahn, Waaaaaahnnnnn

Yesterday the Bisons (you think I forgot about them, didn't you?!?) placed still-a-prospect Fernando "That's Fun to Say" Martinez on the disabled list. Ironically, this was also the same day the Bisons had their last big promo night of the season - a Fernando Martinez bobble head.

The bitter pill became even more bitter when the Bisons made an 8th inning comeback only to allow 5 runs in the 10th.

It's as if Buffalo knows I am back home - thanks!

Buffalo Bisons New Uni's Unveiled

This afternoon, at the Bisons annual Hot Stove luncheon, the New York Mets triple A affiliate unveiled their new uniforms. While I am as opposed to change as the next person, I'm not terribly disappointed with the direction of these sweaters. Truth be told, I sort of expected the Bisons to turn into the Baby-Mets.

Looking at the image above, from left to right. I like the addition of the 'NY' under 'Buffalo' on the away jersey. I'm not overly thrilled with the font, but it is acceptable. The home jersey is nothing special, I've never been a fan of numbers on the front of jerseys, but it is beginning to grow on me (thanks Sabres). Lastly, the Thursday/Sunday, 'Alternate' jersey doesn't do much for me. Mostly because it takes away what was previously my favorite logo in all of sports and 'modernizes' it.


In terms of the caps, they could be worse. From left to right we have the away cap which seems to mimic the font seen in the Buffalo Braves logo. The home cap has the new logo, while growing on me, still represents the beginning of the end of the incredible and historic buffalo in a baseball logo. Lastly, the alternate cap I am fairly unimpressed with. The NY seems to look more New York Giants then New York Mets. Maybe adding some black or orange trim somewhere in the hat would help but until I see this cap up close (and subsequently purchase), I will remain impartial.


Overall, things could have been substantially worse. I walk away not hating what the Mets have done, but at the same time, I'm not overly impressed. Maybe it is because there are so many changes going on in such a short period of time, maybe it's because I don't want the 'Labatt Blue Zone' to be renamed the 'Coca-Cola Family Area'. Whatever the reason, I'm sure these new threads will grow on me, and before long I will forget the green and orange doned by Ryan Garko and Jason Davis.

Buffalo Bisons New Uni's

In a few short minutes the Buffalo Bisons will unveil their four new uniforms. The new primary logo and basic color scheme had been unveiled a month ago, and at first did not sit very well with me. A month later and the logo is starting to finally beginning to grow on me.

It will be interesting to see what the Bisons do with their caps. They have experimented with non-traditional, cartoon-y logos in the past, but have eventually come back to a simple "B" or otherwise.

While I'm not a big fan of the Met-based color scheme, I can easily accept it.

Once the new Uniform's are unveiled, I'll be certain to post them...

Rule V Draft Primer

Tomorrow marks MLB's Rule V draft, a draft where unprotected players can be had by any team for a fee and a roster spot. Of course, teams do a good job at protecting their most valuable assets, there are players who slip through the cracks, most notably being Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton in recent years.

That is, players signed at age 19 or older have 3 years of minor league eligibility before they must be added to a team's 40-man roster. If they are not added to the roster before this time, they will be eligible for the Rule V draft. Similarly, players signed at age 18 or younger with 4 years of minor league service become eligible for the draft if not added to a teams 40 man roster.

Another caveat in the rules, if a player is selected, he must stay on the teams 25-man roster for a full year after being selected. If he is left off the roster for one reason or another, the player will be returned to his original club-a la Matt Whitney, now with the Washington Nationals.

Typically, 'toolsy' middle infielders or left handed pitchers are the ones to be selected in the draft. The thinking is that a young, high upside middle infielder can, at worst, be a defensive replacement for a year, then be returned to the minors for another year or two of seasoning. The same with a left handed pitcher, who can be used in situational roles, as the Twins did with Johan Santana at first.

Over at Baseball America, a complete listing of all the players available for the Rule V draft is posted. It is a ridiculously long list, one that I had a tough time believing. While very few will go name by name through the list, it would have been helpful had BA gotten an intern to go through the list linking every player to at least their MiLB.com player profile page. First Inning has a tool for such, unfortunately it did not work-or fortunately for my desire to sleep.

I did, however go through the list searching out all of the players aged 21 and under. I will go over my findings in a moment.

While there is unlikely to be another Santana or Hamilton in this years draft, there are a handful of very intriguing young players. Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors highlights some of the players that are most likely to be selected in the draft, we're talking predominantly ex-top prospects who simply did not work and have run out of time with their respective clubs.

From that list, there are three players that specifically stick out to me. Those being Chuck Lofgren from the Cleveland Indians, Donald Veal from the Chicago Cubs, and Eduardo Morlan from the Tampa Bay Rays.

After a breakout season in 2006, Chuck Lofgren took a minor step back after being promoted to double A the following year as a 21 year old. While his numbers were not terrible in 2007, they were never good enough to warrant serious consideration for promotion. The Indians again started Lofgren in double A for the 2008 with the expectations that he would at least make a splash in triple A, if not making the big league club at some point.

Obviously this never happened as Lofgren's control-which was never a strength to begin with-took a further step back. While Lofgren has the stuff and the body that makes scouts drool, he also is a continual source of frustration. A team will certainly take a look at him at the back end of their bullpen hoping to iron out any mechanical flaws. I still really like Lofgren and think leaving him unprotected was a terrible decision-at least David Dellucci is still in town.

Donald Veal was once an untouchable prospect.Veal is a straight up power pitcher with a power pitchers body. The left hander sits in the low 90s but can touch 96 on occassion. His delivery could be tinkered with, but in all, Veal could very well be a change of scenary pitcher. The fact is, most teams are currently running out worse pitchers with the fifth spot in their rotation.

The most promising player is Eduardo Morlan.Received from the Twins as part of the Garza for Young deal, Morlan can presumably be owned for $50,000 and then stashed on the disabled list for much of 2009 season. While not technically injured, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Morlan lost 3-5mph off his fastball this season and took a significant step back from 2007.

While 2008 was a fine season by anyones standards, it was certainly an off year for Morlan who saw his strikeout per nine drop from over 12.00 down to 8.62. Morlan managed to put up a decent walk rate, the loss in velocity sends up some serious red flags. That said, I'd be willing to take a shot at the 22 year old giant.

Another interesting prospect comes in the form of wooden-shoe wearing Loek Van Mil. Van Mil is a 7'1" dutch right hander who reaches 97mph on his fastball. Control has been an issue for the 24 year old, but considering how raw the prospect is, he may be worth bringing into Spring Training to see what he's got.

Also stealing headlines is Indians first basemen, Jordan Brown. Brown could probably be an alright bench player, but unfortunately the hopes of him developing into a legitimate power hitter are long gone. Armed with a stellar eye at the plate, Brown will be picked with one of the first few spots in the draft and owned the duration of the 2009 season.


As I mentioned, I took a look at the class of Rule V eligible players aged 21 and under. My thinking was that these players are young enough where a season of cage work and instruction may actually improve their long term futures. Unfortunately, this theory has not worked out in the past, as many high ceiling youngsters have been taken, only to fall on their faces after not hitting for a full year.

Of my list of 20 players whom I saw fit to being drafted, here are my top 5:

Edgar Osuna - 21 years old - Left Handed - Starting/Relief Pitcher - Atlanta Braves

Osuna has some phenomenal statistics, starting with a 9.69 strikeout per nine and a walk rate on the low end of the spectrum. While he took a step back in his advancement from rookie ball to A ball, we're talking a kid with a fair amount of potential.

I can't find much regarding Osuna's stuff except that he has a changeup which he uses as an out pitch. John Sickels recently rated him as a C+ prospect calling him a 'sleeper'.

Luis Ortega - 21 years old - Right Handed - Starting Pitcher - Washington Nationals

How Ortega's season has gone unnoticed in a weak Nationals farm system is beyond me. Nevertheless, the 21 year old put up strong numbers against inferior competition during the Dominican Summer Leagues. Ortega struck out more then a batter an inning while maintaining an incredible walk rate.

Without accurate scouting reports teams will certainly shy away from this player. However, if his stuff pans out, he certainly could be the next Joakim Soria.

Luis Sumoza - 20 years old - Bats and Throws Right - Outfield - Atlanta Braves

The second Brave to make this list, Sumoza is an outfielder with a boat load of power. Despite having only a few hacks above low A ball, Sumoza is a player that I would give a long look at, potentially giving him the occasional platoon-like at bats. At age 20, his development may stunt, but better stunted in my system then growing in another.

Ivan Nova - 22 years old - Right Handed - Starting Pitcher - New York Yankees

Nova entered the 2008 season ranking as the #18 prospect in the Yankees organization. Considering the incredible strides Nova took while moving up a level, the kid seems more then poised for a breakout season.

In 2008, Nova saw his strikeout rate jump from 4.89 to 6.60. While only a marginal amount, his base on balls dropped as well.

Adrian Aviles - 19 years old - Bats and Throws Left - Outfielder - Los Angeles Dodgers

Adrian hasn't done anything special. He has performed at a league average rate against equally as young competition. However, Aviles is the youngest player on this list and could easily be the cheapest draft pick a team could land.


While there are a few more players I would strongly consider picking up, these are the top 5. None of these players are likely to find their way on a Major League roster this coming season, so it will be fun to see how each player developes with their current ballclubs in 2009. It will be interesting to see who, if any, crack top prospect lists entering the 2010 season.

Enjoy the draft tomorrow.

Rebuilding the International Way

The Hot Stove League has hit a lull, the big name free agents are still jockeying for the best possible offer, and many of the trade rumors have cooled for now. The Winter Meetings, being held in Las Vegas beginning December 8th, is where most of that action will occur.

However, some of the best long term moves have been made in recent days, and they also haven't involved players with household names in North America.

On Monday, it was confirmed that the Pittsburgh Pirates had signed Indian contest winners 20-year-old right-hander Dinesh Patel and 19-year-old southpaw Rinku Singh. This is big news for a team that had typically been quiet signing international free agents. Even more important is the fact that Neal Huntington has put another stamp on the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving this franchise some legitimate hope.

The two youngsters have spent the better part of the last year learning how to pitch under the tutelage of the pitching coach from the University of Southern California. The last year has seen the two Indian pitchers gradually learn the nuances of the game, as well as American culture.

According to a report from MLB.com,

When it comes to the scouting reports, the 6-foot-2 Singh throws 89-90 mph and has a split-finger changeup pitch. The 5-foot-11 Patel throws a circle change and can reach 91-92 mph with his heater.

Not bad for two young arms that are just learning how to throw a baseball.

Further reports from EWC.com,

Dinesh Patel, RHP, 5′10/185

Aaron: Definitely the more polished of the two. Strong upper body, but the legs are a little thin. Throws from the stretch and starts in a crouched position. Nice tempo — quick, but not hurried. Leg comes in high and he’s very aggressive to the plate. Call it a 3/4 arm angle. Has a very smooth and natural-looking delivery for someone who had never played baseball before last year.

Fastball is 84-85 and touches 87 with some tail down and in on right-handed batters, showing occasional sink. Delivery looks repeatable, but his release point is a little inconsistent, which will create command issues until he sorts it out. Due to his lack of height, he doesn’t get great plane but nice movement on the fastball can compensate for it. The ball doesn’t come out of his hand as easily as I’d like, but I he gets good extension on his follow-through. Nice aggressive finish.

Slider is 77-79. Doesn’t always get a lot of depth, but, again, like everything else with both these players, you have to remember Patel has been playing baseball for a friggin’ year. With that in mind the slider looks like it has the possibility of developing into a useful secondary pitch.

He looks polished and I find that somewhat shocking. It’s difficult to project what Patel might become or if he’s got the talent to be a pitcher in the majors, but I will say I don’t think this is some gimick signing. There’s something there.

Rinku Singh, LHP, 6′2, 185 lbs.

Jackson: Ringku Singh is clearly the less polished of the two prospects and is more of a project, likely a more boom-or-bust type pitcher than his counterpart Dinesh Patel. He has poor command at this point and gives his bullpen catcher headaches, frequently losing his grip on the ball and struggling to find his form.

However, at 6’2 185, the ceiling is there and he’s clearly an athlete. He’s got long arms and legs, a nice, strong high leg kick and overall shows strength and flexibility in his unpolished delivery. He throws from a ¾ arm slot, bringing his arm way down below his waist and then letting go with a sort of catapault-like delivery where he pushes the ball a bit. He struggles to repeat his form, especially with the lower half, and his follow through needs a lot of work. His arm speed is average at best and he relies on leverage to generate velocity.

Singh’s FB comes in 79-83 MPH, with a slow moving curve that ranges from 67-72. He currently lacks a real feel for the breaking pitch and his curve has little bite to it.

As the authors stress, the two players are extremely advanced for the amount of baseball they have played. Another thing to keep in mind is that they have received training from a world class instructor, the pitchers haven't had years of little league ball to develop bad habits, or throw too many breaking balls with poor form.

In other words, the Pirates picked up two high ceiling pitchers that they can mold however they see fit. This is a big move for baseball's most hapless franchise, one, that as I mentioned, has to provide hope for fans of this ballclub.

Which leads me to wonder if people consider moves in November when awarding their Executive of the Year award. While this move may not have an immediate impact on the Pirates, it certainly improves them for the long term, as well as opening the doors to the franchise entering the international market more aggressively.


This more aggressive approach even led Huntington to sending a scout to check in with Junichi Tazawa-only to find out that Tazawa's price tag would be out of the reaches of this small market club.

If you recall, the hype surrounding Tazawa began at the end of October when he went unselected (as per request) in Japan's entry draft. At this point, I suggested a Major League team blow away the competition and offer Tazawa a Major League contract of $10M a year for 5 of 6 years.

Tazawa has Major League stuff, he has the control to be a quality forth or fifth stater right now. While ten million may be a little steep to pay for an end of the rotation starter, it is a much wiser investment then bringing in a Jon Garland. Not to mention the international dividends from adding a Japanese player, the same dividends that has a report suggesting that Tazawa will reportedly sign with the Boston Red Sox.

With Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima already in New England and the Red Sox in the midst of building a dynasty-like organization, Tazawa does not have a particularly difficult decision to make, all else being equal.

If the Sox sign Tazawa for a sum under eight million dollars, it will have to be considered a failure on the part of the other Major League executives. While the Sox have as much money to spend as anyone, they also have the aforementioned advantage of Dice-K and Okajima. Thus, if a team truly wanted Tazawa, they would have to outright buy him.

Adam Miller Watch - Spring Training 2009

I thought adding days to spring was a good thing?

According to AP sports writer Ronald Blum, due to the 2nd annual World Baseball Classic, Spring Training will undergo some changes to its 2009 schedule. Namely, we will get to see pitchers and catchers report 6 days earlier.

In addition to this, the mandatory date for all players to show up to Spring Training has been moved up from March 5th to February 22nd. To me, this is excellent news. It also reminded me to put my name in for World Baseball Classic tickets at the Rogers Dome.


This also reminded me that I haven't done an Adam Miller Watch in quite some time.

Adam Miller, who as some of you remember, entered 2008 as the Indians top prospect and one of the top prospects in baseball. He began the 2008 season on the disabled list, but upon return, fired things up en route to 4 very promising starts. His pitch counts were high, as Miller struggled to make it through the early innings in some poor Buffalo weather. Despite this, Miller still looked dominating, giving the Indians reason to believe he would be a factor for the team by seasons end.

However, as has been customary with Miller, he found himself hurt again. This injury knocked him out for the year as the Indians medical staff performed a procedure they hoped would cure his lingering problems.

Miller, who been with the Indians instructional league team in Arizona, is now headed in a new direction, at least temporarily. The Indians are working on adding Miller to the bullpen, and seeing how his body fares against the work load of a reliever.


In any event, 6 extra days of Spring will certainly help me get through the winter.

Introducing the Buffalo Baby Mets

According to MiLB.com, the Buffalo Bisons and New York Mets have reached an affiliation agreement. As per the press release,

A new era of Buffalo Bisons Baseball began today as the team signed a two-year player development contract with the New York Mets.

This partnership aligns the Bisons with one of the elite franchises in all of Major League Baseball. Under this agreement, the Buffalo Bisons will be the New York Mets' Triple-A affiliate for the 2009 and 2010 seasons.

Interesting, this will be the second time the Bisons and Mets have an agreement in place. The last time, during the 1963 to 1965 seasons. During the last three season tenure, the Bisons made the International League playoffs with players who went on to have long careers with the Mets, such as Ed Kranepool, Ron Swoboda, and Cleon Jones. Additionally, these three were all part of the Mets' 1969 World Series Team.

The news of the Bisons-Mets affiliation is a taste of both good and bad news. The good news, at least Buffalo does not have to again be linked with Toronto and Torontonians. This is also another block in Ted Rogers pursuit to purchase the 'Queen City'.

The bad news, however, is that the Mets are not traditionally kind to their Triple-A affiliates. Many of the clubs top prospects will simply skip right over this level of the minors, which means that the current top prospect in the Mets organization, Fernando Martinez, will probably never grace the Kentucky Blue grass at Swan and Washington St. Additionally, with few other top prospects, the Bisons are looking to be a team filled with veterans and Quadruple-A players (a Quad-A player is one that excels in the minors but can't hack it in the majors-Ernie Young was the definition of this player, and before this season, Ryan Ludwick too) . In other words, the Bisons should be looking to compete right from the get go, despite having very few exciting young prospects to monitor after they have graced us with their presence. So no Brandon Phillips', no Jhonny Peralta's, no Victor Martinez's, no Adam Miller's, etc.

With all that said, the affiliation is the beginning of a new era and one that I am excited to be apart of. The Bisons open their home schedule against Boston's Triple-A affiliate, the Pawtucket Red Sox on April 13th. It will be interesting to see what sort of lineup the Mets put together for the Bisons, although we can be sure it will provide plenty of depth for the major league club, depth that the Mets have sorely lacked during the 2008 season.

Adam Miller Watch - An Update

Once Adam Miller's injury had been rediagnosed as a hole in his skin, which could have led to major infection issues, and it was thus surgery was required. This is said to be the same injury that Miller suffered during the Arizona Fall League, however it clearly went in the worst direction possible.

There hasn't been a lot of information released to date on the injury or Miller's recovery from it. But at the point of surgery, Miller was said to be out of pitching related activities for 8 weeks, which we are rapidly approaching.

A week ago, Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus, briefly mentioned Adam Wainwright's injured pulley tendon. Although this is a slightly different injury, where surgery was not required to reattach the tendon, we can use some of the information regarding Wainwright to let us know what's going on with Miller-which undeniably will go with substantially less fan fare, the result of being an oft-injury minor leaguer, and pitching for the small market, and losing, Indians team.

Understand that Miller will presumably take longer to return from this injury. Not only because he underwent surgery, but also because the Indians are in a position to be extra careful with their prized pitching prospect. Additionally, Wainwright is vital to the Redbirds making noise in down the stretch.

With that understood, over the weekend, reports are suggesting that Wainwright is about a week from throwing off of a mound. At which point, Wainwright would be between two and four weeks from returning to the rotation, dependent on how quickly the Cardinals need him in the rotation-although it wouldn't surprise me to see him work out of the bullpen.

Altogether, that is about nine to ten weeks that Wainwright would have been on the shelf. This, with a throwing program that could be relatively vigorous, and began in the middle of July.

All that being understood, I figure to hear that Miller has begun throwing from a short distance at the Indians Spring Training facility (whether it be the new one, or old one I couldn't even guess). At which point, it would probably be another three weeks before Miller was throwing off of a mound, and a total of five weeks before he faces live hitters. At best, Miller could be pitching in a game situation by September 1st.

With how the Indians are playing, it wouldn't surprise me to see them try him in the bullpen once the rosters expand in September. Either that, or for Miller to get a couple of starts, simply to build up his arm for the following season, where he will be expected to contribute to the rotation.


As always, I am looking for information regarding this injury. In a recent Hey Hoynsie at the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Paul Hoynes guessed that the next time Indians fans will get to see Miller pitch, will be during the Arizona Instructional League.

Article of the Week for the Week of June 22 - 28

Article of the Week is running a few days behind due to the sudden media focus on the Rays. Because of that, I wanted to ensure that my voice was heard and those who continue to refer to the Rays as the SURPRISING Rays would recognize this isn't all that shocking to everyone.

Being able to reflect upon an article from the website I write for is thrilling. While the content is typically strong at Baseball Digest Daily, it is not often that an article truly sticks out. Recently, I reflected upon The Hot Stove League and analyzed the mid-point value of the three major trades. One of which included the Mariners sending a boat load of prospects to the Orioles for Erik Bedard.

One of those prospects happened to be Chris Tillman, who is one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. BDD's Paul Bugala sat down with the kid and talked baseball. A very interesting read.

A few highlights which make Tillman a very interesting longterm prospect. Tillman recognizes that he occasionally needs to pitch to contact. Tillman states,

That’s one thing I’d like to get better on is pitching to contact early in the count and not getting late in counts. Lately I’ve been walking people, so I have to go to the strikeout mentality so they don’t score runs. Pitching to contact is huge.

Furthermore, Tillman's intelligence appears to be off the charts. He discusses the 'mind games' that hitters play at Double A. Explaining this concept Tillman states,

Reading swings is a big part of it, but every now and then you’ll get a hitter who will take a terrible swing at a pitch and he’s doing it to set you up to get you to throw it again.

Pick up on these two aspects of pitching is vital to a pitchers success at the highest levels. That is, relying on the defense behind a pitcher, as well as being prepared to make changes on the fly will help Tillman as he rises through the minors and into the majors. With this type of recognition, in addition to his raw stuff, it wouldn't surprise me if Tillman made noise immediately in the majors. He is a prospect to keep track of over the next year or so.

MLB International Signing Day - Michel Inoa Scouting Report

According to Baseball Digest Daily,

The Oakland Athletics are scheduled to make a major player announcement in Santa Domingo, Dominican Republic on Wednesday at 11:30 AM ET. If speculation is correct, the A's will announce the signing of super prospect Michel Inoa.

In attendance at the press conference will be Billy Beane, Vice President & General Manager, Billy Owens, Director of Player Personnel, and Raymond Abreu, Director of Latin America Operations.

As I mentioned yesterday, this is all but official. By the time that most of you read this, it will have become official. The Oakland Athletics, yes, the perpetually trying to save A's, are going to dish out the largest signing bonus to an international amateur.

While evaluating the move the Athletics made during the last off season, I speculated that they were building to contend for when they move to Freemont in 2011. Looking at the pieces they acquired, it would appear all of them will be ready and/or arriving at their peak when the Athletics (whom are being speculated to be undergoing a name change) for the 2011 or 2012 season. Each of the players acquired are under team control through at least the 2011 season. Could Inoa be another piece of the puzzle? If he is in fact the real deal, why not?


Something I do not understand is why teams will not hesitate to throw out $6M or so on a North American high school kid whom they can not be certain exactly what type of mileage he has on his arm and are involved in a 'bidding war' for a 16 year old. As I mentioned yesterday, the Tigers threw a guaranteed $11M at Rick Porcello from the 2007 draft (to be paid over the next 4 years). Despite Inoa's large reported signing bonus, he will still cost the Athletics less then Porcello over the same amount of time. While Porcello is undeniably closer to the majors, and is clearly further developed then Inoa, if the scouting reports are accurate, Inoa should be the better of the two. Thus, could this be the Athletics again attempting to take advantage of the market? Why spend $11M on a Porcello when a kid like Inoa can be had for half of that?

As per Michael Lewis' Moneyball,

A poor team couldn't afford to go out shopping for big league stars in the prime of their careers. It couldn't even afford to go out and buy averagely priced players...The poor team was forced to find bargain...

Picture Billy Beane, sitting in his office at McAfee Stadium hearing about this 'once in a generation talent' that can be had for a one time price of $4M plus minor league expenses (which really won't kick in until he comes to America in a year or two). To me, it seems logical to shoot Inoa $4-5M while having him under your microscope and can be certain how much he throws and what type of pitches he is throwing.


But why this kid? What, outside of a few scouts calling him 'once in a generation' makes him so special? How are we to know he will be the next Dwight Gooden (minus the cocaine)? Saber-Scouting (SS) has a scouting report on the kid, let's go through it:

Despite being 6'7" most do not consider him to be a tall, gangly teenager. In fact, there have been numerous occasions where scouts have stated that his mechanics are under control and repeatable. According to SS, Inoa has basketball player athleticism. Combine all of this, and we have a teenager that is extremely advanced, this is mostly noted through Inoa's confirmed command, which is considered very strong.

Saber-Scouting continues by stating,

Inoa’s mechanics are clean and the ball “comes out of his hand shockingly easy,” according to another source. Inoa comes from an athletic family, has a clean and fluid arm action, and earns high marks for his makeup and work ethic.

High praise for a 16 year old.

Inoa also possesses a curve ball, which rates out as a plus pitch, and a splitter which has been called 'dirty'. Owning a plus third pitch, combined with solid command and a reported strong mound presence is what makes Inoa an easy signing, even for the small market Athletics.

Saber-Scouting continues grading out Inoa's pitches on the traditionally used 20-80 scale. The first figure is his current rating, while the second represents a projection-which is nearly impossible to do, given Inoa's lack of professional instruction:

Fastball: 55/70
Curveball: 50/60
Splitter: 45/55
Command: 45/60

Not the best, but spectacular from a 16 year old. Given some proper coaching, and monitoring of usage, and it would not come as a surprise to anyone to see Inoa in the majors before his 20th birthday. Hopefully I am still around and writing by that time.

International Signing Day

Tomorrow (July 2) begins the start of Major League Baseball's International Signing Day. Some of the majors biggest stars have come from this day, which primarily focuses upon Latin American and the Caribbean. Recent years have seen signing bonuses shoot through the roof, however they have not reached a point where the small market clubs are left with bidding on the weakest players. Instead, much of the work is done as the kids develop through team baseball academies, of which is something every team has in almost every country.

However, as the cost of players increases, a time may come where International signings are for the have's, while the have-not's will have to increase their research efforts. According to Baseball America,

Last year, three players received $1 million or more: Red Sox third baseman Michael Almanzar ($1.5 million), Yankees outfielder Kelvin De Leon ($1.1 million) and Mariners shortstop Jharmidy DeJesus ($1 million).

Wily Mo Pena's $2.44 million bonus from the Yankees in 1999 is the record for an international amateur signing...

ESPN.com Enrique Rojas writes that the International Signing Day has become auction-like for Latin American teenagers. Currently, there have been two signings as those players turned 17 prior to the signing day, thus, making them eligible free agents. As per Baseball America,

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

All this leads to an exciting time in baseball as the top international prospects can be considered as extensions of the first round. Which leads to the question of why teams hesitate to dish out first round money to international players whom the team then has superior control of. That is, signing a 16 year old and controlling what he throws, how often he throws, and how he throws for an extra 2 to 4 years.

The consensus top player to be signed on July 2nd, is Dominican right handed starting pitcher Michel Inoa. The 16 year old is already 6'7" and weighs 205lbs. In other words, the boy is already a man. Scouting reports from both Baseball America and ESPNDeportes suggest that Inoa throws 91-94mph and does so under impressive control, some project that his fastball could consistently reach 100mph once he fills out. Inoa also possesses what is being called two potentially plus pitches, which he already controls.

According to Baseball America, "Several scouts have told BA that Inoa is a once-in-a-generation talent..." Given the amount of hype, and dollars that are being thrown around in this bidding war, that sentiment is agreed upon even with Major League GM's. As is, reports are suggesting that the Oakland Athletics are poised to break the bank with a signing bonus of $4.25M. Considering the Tigers spent a guaranteed $11M on Rick Porcello-albeit over 4 years-this contract is fairly reasonable.

This $4.25M signing bonus will be the largest the Athletics have ever given to an amateur player.

ESPN provides the next top prospects to be signed outside of Inoa and the Juan Duran, the prospect the Reds signed recently. Here they are, scouting reports at ESPN.com:

2 Yorman Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Venezuela

3 Adis Portillo RHP 16 (Dec. 20, 1991) Venezuela

4 Rafael Rodriguez OF 16 (N/A) Dominican Republic

5 Luis Domoromo OF 16 (Feb. 4, 1992) Venezuela

6 Alvaro Aristy SS 16 (Dec. 9, 1991) Dominican Republic

7 Gustavo Pierre SS 16 (N/A) Dominican

8 Santo Franco RHP 16 (Nov. 28, 1991) Dominican

9 Swarling Jimenez LHP 16 (Nov. 27, 1991) Dominican Republic

10 Elvin Tavarez RHP 16 (Sept. 7, 1991) Dominican

11 Julio Morban OF 16 (Feb. 13, 1992) Dominican

12 Ramon Flores OF 16 (March 26, 1992) Dominican

13 Jose Valdivia RHP 16 (March 19, 1992)

14 Carlos Perez LHP 16 (Nov. 20, 1991) Dominican

I will try to announce these signings as they occur. While it will be at least 5 years before we see any of these players in the majors, many of these players will have as much value as the televised MLB draft.

That's Gotta...

Grind someone's gears!

Last night at Dunn Tire Park in Buffalo, New York, home of the Triple A Buffalo Bisons, the ballgame was suspended in the bottom of the ninth with two outs. WOW! The score, however, was tied at one run apiece, so the game obviously had to be delayed. At nearly 10 PM EST, delaying the game would have been a terrible idea. However, what would have been most bothersome, is the fact that the "fridaynightbash!" was essentially ruined without the fireworks!

The fog, which should have led to a called game in the 8th inning, essential stole a victory from the Bisons. According to bisons.com,

Unfortunately for the Herd, the heaviest of the fog came a half inning too early. Buffalo led 1-0 from the second inning on before the Yanks used the foggy conditions to their advantage in the top of the ninth. With one out, Matt Carson lofted a deep fly ball that left fielder Jason Tyner never saw. After landing on the warning track, the ball bounced over the wall for a ground rule double.

Then with two outs, pinch hitter J.D. Closser hit a routine fly ball to center on a 1-2 pitch from Buffalo closer Jeff Stevens. This time it was Brad Snyder who was forced to look through the thick fog and find the ball. Unfortunately, the Bisons centerfielder was unable to and the ball landed behind him for a game-tying double.

Definitely a tough outing for the Bisons whom have been making a nice run as of late.

MLB's Rule IV Draft

With MLB's Rule IV draft but days away, here is an explanation of how the draft works at Baseball America (courtesy MLB Trade Rumors). The Rule IV draft, for those who do not know, is baseball's amateur draft where highschoolers and college players alike have their hopes and dreams of heading towards their childhood dream come true.

According to MLB.com,

MLB.com will have exclusive coverage of the remaining rounds on Day 1 with live analysis from The Milk House by Draft expert Jonathan Mayo. Coverage will begin at 11:30 a.m. on Day 2 and continue through to the final pick. MLB.com's coverage will also feature two days of live video from Florida on BaseballChannel.TV.

In addition, MLB.com's live Draft Tracker will provide a searchable database of every Draft-eligible player that will feature biographical data, statistics, scouting reports and, in many cases, scouting video.

This will be the first year that the MLB draft is open to fans and will undoubtedly head in the direction of making the draft more of an event. With MLB's 24-hour channel on the horizon, the league certainly wants to ensure that all the draft day kinks are ironed out before jumping feet first into the venture.

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo has done an outstanding job covering the draft, providing readers with a weekly report on the players who have declared for the draft. Check it out.

Over at Minor League Ball.com, John Sickels provides his readers with a first round mock draft, selecting 30 players involved in the 'regular' picks, and 29 'supplemental picks'. Here is a sneak preview of John's top 10 as well as the token Canadian highschooler:

1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Seems like the most logical pick to me.
2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Pirates prove they are willing to spend $$.
3) Royals: Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Royals opt for close-to-ready bat.
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Can't pass him up.
5) Giants: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Excellent bat, close to ready.
6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: The rumors make sense to me.
7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Best player available.
8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: System thin on hitting could use him.
9) Nationals: Aaron Hicks, RHP, California HS: Nats decide he's a pitcher.
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: Astros opt for "safe" college pitcher.
14) Twins: Brett Lawrie, INF, Canada HS: Twins pick cold-weather bat, hoping for another Morneau and worried that he won't last to 27.

Jonathan Mayo also has his first round mock draft at MLB.com. There are not a whole lot of deviations from the predictions as both seem to be following their leads from MLB executives and scouts a like.

What is most interesting about projecting the draft is how much of a crap shoot the MLB draft is. While teams are certainly becoming more efficient with their scouting, having to wait 2 or 3 years for even the best prospects is a troubling task for many fans. This year, it is said that there is truly no consensus #1 pick and unlike many years, the draft does not appear to be incredibly deep. Which leads me to wonder, why are the Rays looking for 'best available' when they could potentially fill a hole with a quick signing relief pitcher that is major league ready but has a relatively low ceiling.

Enjoy the coverage.

Clayton Kershaw - Blogging it Out

DirecTV is stepping it up with their latest ad campaign, so I figured it was only right that I did as well, so here I am, Blogging it Out.

Clayton Kershaw, the 'most hyped' Dodgers prospect in recent memory takes the mound for his major league debut this afternoon, taking the place of DFA'ed Esteban Loaiza. By now, I'm certain everyone had heard about that, so really nothing to report on that front.

We are one out into the second inning and Kershaw looks good, but not great, although what do you expect from a kid who two years ago was trying to figure out whether or not he would be stood up for prom. After 32 first inning pitches, Kershaw allowed an RBI double to Albert Pujols on one of Kershaw's patent big hooks. Relying on only his curve and fastball, hitters seemed to have a beat on the kid in the first inning. He has since turned things around and has induced two groundball outs to go along with four strikeouts.

His 'stuff' has always ranked as that of an ace and that has turned up throughout the minors. The Hardball Times published an article about Kershaw this week titled, 'Is Clayton Kershaw Worth the Hype?' Here are some highlights from that article:

Fastball - Kershaw's fastball sits anywhere from 93-96 with a good amount of late movement.

However, he still needs to command the pitch better, even though he generally has good control of it. I also think he may have some extra velocity in the tank if he needs it.

Grade: 60 now, 70 future

Curveball—Kershaw's curveball (as seen at the start of this article) is an 11-to-6 knee buckler with substantial bite. The pitch is usually in the mid-70s. Like the fastball, he can do a better job commanding the pitch.

Also worth pointing out is Kershaw's ability to get hitters gearing up for something hard when he throws his curveball because the intent he throws with and the mechanics he displays are the same whether throwing a fastball at 95 mph or a curveball at 75 mph.

Grade: 65 now, 70 future

Change-up—This is a pitch Kershaw is still honing. The pitch shows a solid fading action and he shows good feel for throwing the pitch, but he has to work on keeping the same arm speed he uses to throw his fastball; he has to do a better job of selling the pitch. By most accounts, he has made tremendous strides in improving his change-up since being drafted in 2006.

Grade: 45-50 now, 55 future

Overall, Kershaw has the potential to have two of the most dominant pitches in the majors. The author asserts that there aren't any serious red flags among Clayton's stuff. From what I have seen to this point, the stuff looks 'explosive' more then 'electric'. That is to say, he has the control and the velocity that is ideal, but the movement, from what I have seen, is less then stellar.

Let's see what MLB Gameday has to say about that. Kershaw's curveball shows outstanding movement, as is expected from a pitcher with such a devastating hook. However, his fastball is straight and does not have an overwhelming amount of sink. These are things that can help a pitcher in the minor leagues, but I wonder what Kershaw will do if his curve is not working one day. Furthermore, I am curious how he will get through a batting order the third time through in the second or third time facing the same club.

That is, as of today, team's are at the plate guessing what pitch is coming next. A hitter is not aware of the patterns Kershaw displays nor can they be expected to know what is coming in most counts.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had the following to write about Kershaw, while naming him the #1 prospect in the Dodgers organization and #5 in all of baseball (I tabbed Kershaw as the #1 prospect in all of baseball):

The Good: Once scout classified Kershaw as the best left-hander he's ever seen in the Midwest League. His fastball sits at 93-95 mph, can touch 98, and comes in on right-handed hitters with hard, boring action. He backs up the pitch with a plus-plus slow, looping curveball that freezes batters the second it comes out of his hand. His changeup has advanced to an average pitch, and he has the perfect pitcher's build, a smooth, easy delivery, and maturity beyond his years.
The Bad: Kershaw struggles at times with his command, and he doesn't compensate for it well, often grooving hittable fastball when he falls behind in the count. He needs to find more confidence in his changeup and mix it into his arsenal more often.
Fun Fact: Highland Park High School has a wide-ranging list of alumni, including Padres righty Chris Young, 1950s bombshell Jayne Mansfield, and almost-presidential assassin John Hinckley, Jr.
Perfect World Projection: Kershaw has all of the raw tools to be a major league ace of the highest level.

And let's check out what John Sickels at Minor League Ball has to say about Kershaw:

Physicality, Health, and Tools
Kershaw is 6-3, 210 pounds, a lefthanded hitter and thrower, born March 19, 1988. He is athletic and usually repeats his delivery well, although occasionally his release point will slip which hurts his command. His fastball is consistently in the low 90s and can hit 95-96 MPH at times. His curveball is excellent, and he's made major strides improving his changeup. Kershaw should have three above-average to excellent major league pitches, and as he refines his command he should have a dominating combination of plus stuff and sharp control. So far he has had no major health concerns.

As you can see, Kershaw received rave reviews from 'experts'. In this afternoon's game Kershaw has gotten his fastball up to 97mph and his curveball has been dropping down to 72mph. While both are explosive pitches, they undeniably have a different release point and delivery. I believe once hitters begin to recognize this, they will start hitting Kershaw hard. Vin Scully commented that Kershaw throws his fastball at 'maximum effort'.

What I have loved about Kershaw is his ability to run fastballs inside on right handed hitters. Either a letter high or belt high fastball has been swung on and missed multiple times in this outing and in essentially every pitch, Kershaw would have posted a called strike.

To this point, it appears as though Kershaw has thrown one change up, which surprised Pujols. I was shocked to see that FSN West Plus had it clocked at 84mph as it looked to be much slower.


This is definitely an exciting debut for the 20 year old however I'm not sure the Dodgers should keep him up with the big league club all season until he is at the very least comfortable in throwing his change up if (when) needed.

Adam Miller Watch - May 4, 2008

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported that Miller's fastball was being clocked at 93 MPH in Spring Training, which is excellent for a pitcher who missed a great deal of the 2007 season. In a recent Hey Hoynsie, Hoynes responds to a question about Adam Miller,

Miller recently rejoined Class AAA Buffalo after spending much of April in extended spring training in Winter Haven, Fla. He still hasn't recovered all his arm strength from last year, when he tore a ligament in his right middle finger and injured his right elbow. A blister on the same finger caused him to miss a great deal of spring training this year.

At full strength, Miller throws between 94 mph and 100 mph. He could help the Tribe in the pen or rotation if he can stay healthy.

While it is possible that Miller returns to the mid/high 90s form of his pre-injury days, Torey Lovullo however, asserted that it is probably unreasonable to think that Miller will be the pitcher of old. Hoynes does, however, bring up an interesting comment regarding Miller to the bullpen or rotation if healthy.

From what I have seen and recorded to date, Miller looks as though his confidence is rising, however his stamina and stuff is still slightly lacking. He has made hitters look foolish on occasion, but he is still lack that killer instinct that a pitcher with his ability needs. Think Jake Peavy over Daniel (or closer to home, Fernando) Cabrera. That, I'm going to throw strikes and you can't hit 'em mentality.


With Miller's start having been rained out yesterday, he will take the bump in the first of a double header. With Miller's arm strength building, and the game being shortened due to IL rules that limit doubleheader games to 7 innings, Miller is looking for his first victory of 2008, that will hopefully not be spoiled by the bullpen.

One thing that I would really like to see in Miller's start this afternoon, is more control of the plate. Having walked 10% of the batters he has faced, Miller has not done himself any favors, although this is not a terrible figure, consider that in 2007 Fausto Carmona sat just inside the top 30 with a 6.9%.

I will be keeping my eye on the game and giving some more feedback as Miller pitches. It is currently cool sitting in the low 50s. The sun is shining and the forecast is calling for a bright afternoon with some winds blowing from the west. Right handed hitters may see some of the balls off their bats fly a little bit longer because of that and we'll keep it in mind for when Miller is on the mound.



Update - 05/04/08 - 1:10 PM EST
Jerry Owens took the first ball for a called ball, took the next pitch for a strike, fouled the next pitch off and then nubbed a tough pitch to second.
Jason Bourgeois rolled an easy roller to Josh Barfield who didn't take his time and produced an error. This is how a pitch count gets high.
Larry Wise worked his way into a hitters count and lined one the opposite way to left fielder Ben Francisco.
Miller is looking strong against Brad Eldred. He made him look foolish on the first pitch of the at bat. Miller finished him off with a nice inside fastball.
Jeff Liefer is at the plate and starts off behind fouling off the first pitch. The second pitch Miller pounded low and inside. With pitch three Miller gets Liefer to swing at a pitch out of the zone.

After 1 Inning, Miller has 2 strikeouts, 1 hit and has thrown 21 pitches, 15 for strikes. He looks sharp out there and is rolling.

Update - 05/04/08 - 1:40PM EST
Miller will take the hill in the 2nd inning with a 4-0 lead. The Bisons put together a nice inning, but did benefit from some luck. The wind, as previously mentioned, does appear to be adding some issues to the balls. Bisons announcers Ben Wagner also mentioned that the pitches were worried about balking. Lets hope that doesn't play a role this inning.

Chris Getz comes to the plate to start the inning and grounds out to first on a 1 and 1 pitch.
Ex-Bison Mike Rouse comes to the plate and whiffs on a slider, then grounds out to second base. Miller looks sharp. He is staying in the zone and attacking the hitters.
Ball one, high and inside to Paul Phillips followed by a fastball strike. Working ahead, Miller tried to get Phillips to chase a ball low and away. Phillips was fortunate to push one the opposite way on a nice low and away pitch by Miller. That should have been an out.
Fernando Cortez takes ball one in a pitch Miller forget to follow through on. Miller seems to be trying to get a little too cute, not trusting his stuff. Cortez singles up the middle on a hitters count.
Jerry Owens returns to the plate and takes the first pitch outside for a ball. In a 2-1 count, Owens grounded out to first. This was essentially the same ball that Phillips hit for a single. I love Minor League Ball!

Miller didn't have the same control in this inning allowing 2 hits without recording a strikeout. Miller threw 11 of 19 pitches for strikes.

Ben Wagner mentions that Miller is again on a pitch count, suggesting he will be held to under 100 pitches again.

Update - 05/04/08 - 1:58 PM EST
Still leading 4-0, Miller looks for a quick inning to put him on pace to claim a victory.

Bourgeois is one of only 3 right handed hitters Miller will face today and allows a 1-1 single on a tough pitch low and outside (being called a 'slider without bite'). It helped that Bisons third basemen Arron Herr was cheating in for a bunt.
Larry Wise flared one to left field that was boosted by the wind keeping it out of reach from Ben Francisco.
With nobody out, Eldred is up and singles to right. A pair is knocked in on a first pitch that was low and away. A great throw and an even better hit. Miller allows his first two runs of the season.
Jeff Liefer (image left) is at the plate and Miller is struggling to hit the strike zone. Liefer pulls one between the first and second in a play that would have been made had there not been a runner on first.
Getz takes the first pitch for a ball and then whiffs on an inside fastball. Getting the count back in Miller's favor, he throws another one low and inside. The lefties seem to be having a tough time with that pitch. Miller flares one to Barfield for a force out at second.
With runner's on first and third, Mike Rouse comes to the plate. First pitch comes in for a called strike. As does the second. Miller throws the 4th fastball of the at bat high and outside. Srikeout #3.
Catcher Paul Phillips takes a called strike on the outside edge. He lays off the second pitch in the same place for a ball. He then weakly pulls the third pitch to shallow left field.
Fernando Cortez takes the first pitch for a ball. Miller has definitely taken a step back in this inning and cannot catch a break (or a corner). Going back inside (where he seems more comfortable), Miller gets Cortez to foul one off. He follows that with a sharp slider for a called strike. A soft roller to first ends the inning for Miller, but his final line is not pretty.

It took Miller 28 pitches to get through this inning, 19 went for strikes. Keep in mind however, that a ball hit in play counts as a strike. Miller was much shakier then the 68% of strikes represents. 5 hits and 3 runs allowed, as well as racking up a strikeout.

The good news, only one hit went for an extra base.

Update - 05/04/08 - 2:19 PM EST
The Bisons go down in order for the first time this game. Charlotte Knights pitcher Jack Egbert seems to be getting stronger while Miller has been showing signs of rust.

Speaking with Bisons Manager Torey Lovullo reports that Miller will be throwing some other pitches, not relying so heavily on the fastball. What fastballs he will throw, Lovullo says will be low.

Jerry Owens is at the plate first and takes two or three pitches for strikes, all three have been low. The forth pitch was a called strike cutter. Owens didn't lift the bat off his shoulder.
Bourgeois flares a broken bat ball into foul ground on the first base side. That should have been an out. Second pitch went for a called strike which looked like a slider. Bourgeois pulls a hard one foul and then fists one to short.
Wise (image right) is two for two and is fortunate I'm not at the game. The second pitch was a beautiful inside fastball. In a hitters count, Wise pulled an inside fastball for a double.
Eldred takes the first two pitches inside for balls. He has a 3-0 count and is not the type who would hesitate to swing at a 'get em over' fastball. But Miller has battled back and gotten the count full. Finishing off Eldred would be great for Miller here. Another foul and I am assuming Miller will not come out for the 5th inning. Miller walks Eldred on a very close pitch inside.
Liefer should not be on a minor league team. He fouled off the first two pitches (action in the bullpen) both of which seemed out of the zone. Another three fouls and the count is still at 1-2. Liefer lines one DIRECTLY at Sandoval that bounces into left field for a single scoring the forth run of the game for the Knights.

Miller reaches 96 pitches and leaves the game. He threw 62 pitches for strikes and finishes with a line of:
3.2 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB and 4 K.

The biggest positives that can be taken from this are that Miller looked outstanding in the first inning. Second to that, is the fact that Miller allowed only two extra base hits.

Not getting in front of hitters hurt Miller. Being unable to finish off hitters also hurt the youngster. I can't imagine Miller will be too happy about this game.

Adam Miller Watch - April 28, 2008

After a successful return to the Hill for the 2008 season, Adam Miller will look to build off of what should have been a nice win. Without the errors and a little bit better fielding, I believe Miller would have made it through 6 innings without issue.

Let's take a walk through Adam's first start of the season using MiLB's Gameday.

Miller went 5 innings sticking to around the pitch count that Torey Lovullo suggested he would be at. Although I imagine had things went a little bit better for Miller, in terms of luck, he would have went on for a another 5 to 10 pitches. And as I mentioned, should have been able to make it through 6 innings, it not more.

The MiLB Gameday is not as detailed as MLB's, however it does give us a good impression of what the hitters were seeing and how the pitcher either tricked the hitters or was very predictable.

In the 1st inning, Adam Miller struck out Brett Gardner, the first hitter he faced in the season on a 4th pitch swinging strike. It was a pitch that was on the outside edge of the plate. The second batter Miller faced was Bernie Castro who walked on seven pitches, then moved to second on a passed ball. Castro fouled off three pitches as Miller worked mostly on the outside edge of the plate. Juan Miranda moved Castro from 2nd to 3rd as he grounds out in what would have been an inning ending double play (according to the Buffalo radio announcers). During this at bat Miller missed outside with his first two pitches, followed by a swinging strike inside. He hit his spot with pitch four on a called strike and and on pitch number five he left it over the plate a little bit where Miranda hit the ball to first. Shelly Duncan then managed to single in Castro looping an Adam Miller slider down the left field line. Miller was actually lucky to only allow a single as the slider went right down the middle of the plate. Miller was able to get out of the inning without allowing an earned run when Jason Lane grounded out to first; this, after he swung and missed on two fastballs. The first of which was out of the zone. Not a bad first inning, 2 strikeouts, a walk, a hit and an unearned run.

For the 2nd inning, Miller was working with a nice lead and seemed to be pitching, instead of throwing. While he still had issues hitting the outside edge of the plate, he did enough to get through the inning in order on only 10 pitches (7 strikes), zero of which were called strikes or swinging strikes. First basemen Eric Duncan was the first to the plate and Miller followed the scouting report keeping the ball away. Duncan ended up pulling the forth pitch he saw to second base for an easy ground out. Journeyman Nick Green was next to the plate and Miller made quick work of him, keeping the ball outside and getting a fly out to the opposite way in right field. Miller cannot be happy with his pitch selection against Greg Porter, however he did get him to ground out to short on 4 pitches (2 in the zone fouls).

Miller entered the 3rd inning with yet another run, but was not as sharp as he was in the second, allowing a hit and a walk. 32 pitches into his first start seems a little early to struggle, but since Miller made it out of the inning fine, it is nothing to worry about. Catcher Chris Stewart got onto first with a line drive up the middle. Stewart also took two called strikes, which were pitches that were low and in the zone, I'm guessing one of the two was Miller's signature slide piece. Brett Gardner saw four pitches, each of which were outside. Pitch one and two were perfectly placed pitches with pitch three being an obvious 'chase' pitch. Miller then missed his spot a little, but Gardner flew out to left center. Castro then worked a seven pitch at bat for a walk, he took pitch two and three for called strikes on the outside, probably a good idea given the pitch location. Pitch five and seven look to be very close pitches, low and right down the middle. With two on and one out, Miller faced his biggest test to date (image left). A nine pitch at bat which involved two swinging strikes and two pitches down the middle that were fouled off. Miller got by on his stuff during this battle, good to see from a guy coming back from an injury. Miller continued to show his ability to pitch, working both the inside and outside of the plate. It still appears as if he is struggling with location, but getting Duncan to ground out on six pitches (with an in the zone swinging strike) ended the inning.

A 32 pitch inning put Miller at 64 entering the forth inning, in what I would have expected to be a rough one given the quick fashion the Bisons went down in for their half of the inning. However, a three pitch at bat to Lane with a perfectly place inside strike two. Eric Duncan sat down after four pitches and a pop up to third base. Miller tried to go high-low during this pitch sequence (image right). Miller again made quick work of Nick Green getting him to ground out to third on two pitches, an in the zone foul and an away pulled ground out.

Miller entered the 5th inning with 73 pitches thrown, 45 being for strikes. A nice ratio, but nothing spectacular given all of the foul balls that were hit. For this inning, the Yankees did the exact opposite of what I would have suggested to do to a pitcher approaching his pitch count in his first start back, they were aggressive. Porter put a ball in play after two pitches, both pitches in the zone on the outside edge. Stewart reached on an error by Miller, who was trying to throw out Porter at second in what would have been a double play. Gardner fouled off two pitches outside and the third one he popped out to left field. In what should have been the last out of the inning, or even an inning ending double play, Castro moved the Porter to third while sacrificing Stewart at second. Another quick two pitch at bat, where Miller worked away for a called strike, then missing a little and coming a little over the plate. In essentially the same pitch as the one Castro hit to third, Miller missed in what Miranda lined for a double which scored two, bringing the Bison lead down to one and forcing pitching coach Scott Radinski to the mound. Leaving Miller in provided to be the right choice as he got Duncan to ground out to short stop ending the threat on two pitches.

Overall, a nice debut for Miller where he threw 65% of his pitches for strikes. Miller owned an adequate ground out ratio of 47%. As I mentioned, with proper fielding, Miller should have made it through at least 6 innings, which would have allowed the Bisons to enter the 7th inning with a 4 run lead. Instead the club was only leading by a single run.

Miller will go tonight, again facing the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees. Pitching at home for the first time this season and against the same team in five days will be the least of Miller's obstacles, as he needs to prove he is healthy and ready to be a factor with the Indians this season. If his first start was any indication of things to come, I must admit I was wrong about the kid. Here's to hoping!


I was intending on heading to the game this evening, however I have other obligations to take care of (namely school work that I have procrastinated on up until now that is due in the next two days). I will, however, be listening to the game on the radio and will provide updates as I see fit. I hope you are enjoying this series as much as I am.

Update - 04/28/08 - 6:10 PM EST
Yes, I bought MiLB.TV for the next month. Off to a shaky start, Adam Miller got out of a bases loaded, two out jam with a called strike. It appeared to be a two seam fastball that moved away from the hitter.

The thing that stands out the most from watching this outing so far, is that Miller does not seem to be fooling the hitters. A couple first pitch called strikes, and a few late fouls, but nothing where the hitters seemed absolutely fooled.

It is of note, however, that Miller would not have gotten into the jam he did had he had Major League fielding behind him. A sharp ground ball by Bernie Castro to Andy Gonzalez would have been a close, but easy play at first. Instead, the ball squeaked by and Miller was charged with a hit allowed.

Update - 04/28/08 - 6:35 PM EST
The second inning is going quite a bit better as Miller has gotten his velocity up and there has been noticeable movement on all of his pitches.

Jason Brown singled a weakly hit ball to second base that probably would have been an out for major league fielding.

Brett Gardner then followed with a sharply hit ball up the middle. Miller looked excellent during this sequence which led to the Bernie Castro at bat where Miller struck him out looking on an outstanding slide piece.

Update - 04/28/08 - 6:45 PM EST
I have big expectations for Miller this inning. I feel like he is starting to really get a feel for his stuff. I would like to hear that he is getting even more velocity on his fastball, but that may be unreasonable considering the weather conditions in Buffalo tonight.

First pitch, fastball strike, low and outside. Great start. Nick Green flied out in what the color commentator referred to as a 'great cut'.

Miller battled back against Miranda. He missed badly on the first three pitches and didn't look good on the delivery in any one of them. This at bat included a swinging strike and a couple fouled off balls. He's looking good, but not great, yet.

Jason Lane is up now and got up 2-0 on two terrible pitches. Miller returned with two outstanding pitches which made Jason Lane look like the AAAA player he is. A fly out to center ended the at bat.

Eric Duncan was the victim of Miller's second wild pitch of the inning. But being behind 1 and 2 in the count puts this kid at a major disadvantage. After a foul ball, Duncan dribbled one up the middle for an easy put out by Bisons shortstop Danny Sandoval.

Update - 04/28/08 - 7:18 PM EST
The Bisons got a two run home run from Ben Francisco, which should help Miller on the bump.

The network was joined by manager Torey Lovullo who raised concern about a lack of strikes, but is impressed with Miller's ability to get key outs when his back is against the wall. Sitting with 78 pitches in 3 innings, it is going to be tough for Miller to be the pitcher of record for the Bisons at this point.

Miller starts off the inning with a strikeout, getting Ransom to swing at a strike out of the zone for strike two and then foul tip strikeout a beautiful fastball low and away.

Gregory Porter volunteers to make things easy on Miller, swing at the first pitch and popping up to center field.

Miller is now making Jason Brown look foolish. Three pitches and three strikes. This is the third of four innings that Miller has finished off the Yankees with a strikeout. It looks like the kid should take the bump at least one more time.

Update - 04/28/08 - 7:25 PM EST
Bubbie Buzachero is warming up in the bullpen for the second time this game. It seems as if he'll take over for Miller in the 5th inning ending the kids game and giving him 9 straight scoreless innings.

Adam Miller Watch - April 23, 2008

Adam Miller of the Buffalo Bisons will take the bump for the first time in 2008 tonight as he tries to reclaim his status as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. While many still rank Miller as the #1 prospect in the Indians organization, people are beginning to worry what kind of career he is going to have with the persistent injury problems.

On WWKB 1520 Bisons manager Torey Lovullo said not to expect Miller to be working into triple digits any longer as he is now focusing on how to pitch rather then simply throwing. Furthermore, Lovullo asserted that Miller would not be on a strict pitch count, instead allowing him to go 85, 90 pitches into the game. Lovullo also suggested that he would let the radar gun tell him how Miller is holding up as the game wears on.

What are the prospect reports saying about Adam Miller entering the 2008 season?

• Baseball America ranks Miller as the 29th prospect, expecting him to get a call to the big club at some point this season.
• Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein has Miller ranked 52nd, and as the #1 prospect within the organization.
• Keith Law of ESPN ranks Miller at #29 stating, "Miller is a potential No. 1 starter if he can keep his arm attached at all its various joints."
• MiLB.com has Miller coming it at #10, apparently ignoring his long history of injuries.
  

In each case, Miller ranks as the #1 prospect within the Indians organization. The experts glow when they review him. Keith Law says, "when healthy, Miller has a four-seamer that sits in the mid-90s and a two-seamer in the low 90s, and he holds his velocity through 90-100 pitches. His slider already is a big league out pitch, up to 88 mph with a hard, late break, and his command has been good in the past."

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has the following to say,

The Good: When Miller is healthy and pitching, he remains awfully impressive. His low-to-mid 90s fastball can touch 98, and he backs it up with a low 90s sinker and plus slider. All three pitches can grade out above-average at times, and his changeup is solid.
The Bad: The biggest concern for Miller at this point is his health. He should be in the big leagues by now, but he can't stay healthy enough to put the polishing touches on his game to get there. Despite a big frame and smooth mechanics, some wonder if he wouldn't be better off in the bullpen in order to preserve his availability.

Although, the news it not all good, as Goldstein is beginning to worry about the injury issues. Consider that in 2007 Goldstein rated Miller as an Excellent Prospect in his 5 teir rating system. Entering the 2008 season Goldstein has Miller down to a 4 Star Prospect. While a 4 Star Prospect is nothing to scoff at, it is obvious Goldstein is not as high on Miller the 23 year old as he was with Miller the 22 year old.


What do I expect from Adam Miller this season? I have personally bumped him from my top 5 Indians prospects, worrying that he is going to work his way into the bullpen. While he would still presumably be an outstanding pitcher as a reliever, its tough to imagine any right handed reliever being rated as a top 5 prospect in anyones organization, unless one was certain the pitcher would be a closer, and a great one at that.

Update - 04/23/08 - 8:33 PM EST
The first inning is underway. Adam Miller struck out the first hitter he faced, with a swinging in the zone strike. The next hitter, Bernie Castro walked on seven pitches, then moved to second on a passed ball. Juan Miranda moved Castro from 2nd to 3rd as he grounds out in what would have been an inning ending double play (according to the Buffalo radio announcers). Shelly Duncan then managed to single in Castro looping an Adam Miller slider down the left field line. Miller was able to get out of the inning without allowing an earned run when Jason Lane grounded out to first; this, after he swung and missed on two fastballs.

Off to a nice start, Miller threw 14 of 22 pitches for strikes, including 4 of the swinging strike variety.