Procrastinating Prognostication American League

While a week has passed, I can't honestly say I am in a different frame of mind with my projections then I was a week or two ago. In fact, teams have simply cemented what I already thought of them in most cases, with the exception of the Marlins - whom I still don't trust.

This will be brief, but hopefully it gets the ball rolling on further posts.

American League
East

1. Toronto Blue Jays - Last year I had the Jays taking second and winning the wild card, this year I have them winning what is easily the toughest division in baseball, and arguably North American sports. The Jays were 5 games below .500 before Cito Gaston arrived and ended the season 6 games above - that's an 11 game turn around in a little over half the season. Projecting a 90 win season out of the Jays is easy, projecting 95 games will rely on a decent amount of luck.

Offensively the Jays are deep, Travis Snider and Adam Lind fill holes that the team had for more then half of last year, Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen need to stay healthy, and Aaron Hill will provide a marked improvement over the Eckstein/McDonald mess that the Jays went with for much of last year. Gaston pushes a more aggressive style at the plate which certainly helped the Jays in the second half of last year.

What the Jays Need? Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum aren't coming back, that's the end of that. Why not kick the tires of Pedro Martinez?

2. Boston Red Sox - I simply cannot deny it, the depth of the Sox bullpen and rotation makes them a feirce opponent whom no one would want to face. Offensively the Sox are deep but are aging and have some major holes (see Varitek and Lowrie). The Sox shouldn't expect Pedroia and Youkilis to repeat 2008, but they will be spectacular hitters no matter what.

What is scary about this Sox team is the fact that this could quite possibly be the club's worst team over the next decade.

What the Sox Need?Forget tradition, forget being faithful, Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield should no longer be taking on vital roles within this organization. The Sox have fine replacements for both players and they should be using them.

3. Tampa Bay Rays - On paper this team is as good as any, where they have offensive weaknesses, they have defensive gems. The club has a deep rotation and bullpen with plenty of backups within the system.

I am cautious in not putting the Rays in second and fighting for the wild card considering all that went wrong for this club in 2008, but I simply prefer the Jays and Sox over the course of 162 games. Despite ranking 3rd, I feel Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball and will make it very close, with the potential at winning the division if the Jays and Sox hit some road blocks.

What the Rays Need? Not much really. If anything they need to make some organization decisions like the one they made with Jason Hammel. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus recently proposed a situation where the Rays move Scott Kazmir to the Indians for Carlos Santana, this is the sort of active move I would expect the Rays to make.

4. New York Yankees - I know, they added a lot, but they also took a lot away. In all, I see what the Yanks did as moving parallel rather then advancing. Long term they are in a better situation, but for today we're looking at an old team where one missing part could end their season.

With the focus shifting towards defensive play the Yanks did well in cutting ties with Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, but this team is still weak in most areas with the glove.

In addition, their "ace" is somewhat of an enigma. Certainly Charles Carstens' run with Milwaukee makes him appear as a legitimate ace, but consider that was in the National League. Further, while Sabathia has had a nice career, consider the division and opponents he has, for the most part, faced. That is, all but one of the ballparks in the American League Central is pitcher friendly. Not only that, but CC has had the luxury of facing the terrible Royals and prior to 2006, the terrible Tigers on an annual basis. In other words, leaving the Central is only going to hurt the big guy.

What the Yanks Need? Health. If this club is healthy, they can hit with anyone. If they suffer the expected bumps and bruises of a team with an average age well into the 30s, expect another season of disappointment in the Bronx.

5. Baltimore Orioles - The "Next Year's, This Year's" Rays have a team that won't roll over, at least offensively. In terms of pitching, the O's are set up to let their young guns arrive at the show as soon as they are ready - both Matusz and Tillman will make their Major League debuts sooner then later this season.

Despite the right direction, the Orioles are still a few pieces, and a year (atleast) away from being a true competitor. Put this team in the National League, and we've got a different story. In the men's league, the tough division of the men's league, not so much.

What the O's Need? Don't screw this up, things are heading in the right direction and your fanbase is getting excited for the franchise to show up. A hot start will be lucky and treated as a learning experience.

Central

1. Cleveland Indians - Homer alert! Truth be told, I do not like the way the Indians are currently set up. Offensively they are fine, although I feel as though a good lefty could shut them down. Defensively they are adequate, they have their holes, just as they have their strengths. The bullpen has a lot invested in it, both money and youngsters, and should be able to hold its own. Where the Tribe are lost is with their rotation, that is filled with maybe's and if's and nothing certain, not even within the organization.

That said, I am hesitant to place the Indians atop the division, and do so simply because of my personal biases. In addition to that, I simply cannot see another team in this division being worthy of winning, each having their own major flaws.

What the Tribe Need? Every season I preach the same line, "Let the best play". The Indians, more so then any team in the Major Leagues will keep their players down in the lower levels for what must feel like an eternity. At some point, Matt LaPorta is going to be talking with Mat Gamel and asking him what the show feels like, despite the fact that LaPorta is the far more advanced player.

There were very few who figured that LaPorta wouldn't have been the better Opening Day option in left then Ben Francisco, unfortunately those few are making the decisions in Cleveland.

2. Chicago White Sox - I actually really like this team. The rotation goes 5 strong and I am a big fan of the bullpen. Offensively the ChiSox are old, but with enough promising hitters to even out any drop in production. In addition to this, the Sox are the anti-Tribe in that they will promote their prospects even if they aren't ready. Fortunate for them, Gordon Beckham is ready.

What the Sox Need? A drink from the fountain of youth. If Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and/or Paul Konerko begin to really show their age, this team is doomed. If that trio can stave off aging for one more year, watch out!

3. Detroit Tigers - Admittedly, the Tigers are alright. Having Cabrera and what he can do with the stick will help even the most hopeless of clubs. The Tigers, are slightly more hopeless, having a nice offensive unit and an improved defensive club.

The issue is with pitching and what to expect from the pitchers. The fact that there are question marks from top to bottom with their arms means the Tigers are rolling the dice that they aren't entering every series expecting an out and out slug fest.

What the Tigers Need? Zumaya to come back healthy and for the rest of the bullpen to simply fall into place. If the Tigers can lean on their bullpen it will take some pressure off of the starters who aren't overly conservative with their pitch counts to begin with.

4. Kansas City Royals - This is built entirely off of promise, and the hope that everything lines up accordingly. Out of spite, I wanted to place the Royals in 5th, as Dayton Moore is showing a total disregard for modern baseball analysis.

That being said, the Royals have a fine pitching staff that will steal a series or two. Their hitters, while inferior to the rest of the division, are good enough to win them the occasional 2-1 game.

What the Royals Need?A new leader who has a single plan, rather then a few plans that are half hearted to begin with. Consistent at bats need to be given to their young emerging stars, and innings need to be ripped from their old, lousy veterans.

5. Minnesota Twins - I don't trust them, I don't love what they have, I just can't see them being a team that can contend in what has become a deep, albeit mediocre division. The thing is, no Mauer is a tough pill to swallow. Add to the fact this club has a young rotation that may need to rely on the bullpen, and it just doesn't seem like a formula for success.

I must admit, this was as much of a coin toss as it is an educated decision. The club still has some nice hitters, and defensively they are fine (without Delmon in the lineup), but this isn't enough to save them from being the bottom feeder of this division. Keep in mind, by "bottom feeder" I am referring to the club being an 80 win team in a division being won by an 88 win team.

What the Twins Need? Some help to their bullpen. As much as I am a homer for Canadian born players, Jesse Crain is not the guy you want handing the ball to Joe Nathan. Pat Neshek was, but he is out for the year. This team would be well served to add an arm or two to the bullpen.

West

1. L'Anaheim Angels - The other teams in this division simply are not ready to compete at the level of the Angels. While they aren't the team they were in 2008 (which was a very lucky team), they are still the class of a weak division. The Angels don't really have any strengths, but they also lack that glaring weakness.

The addition of Bobby Abreu was an excellent one for a team that lacked on base and power. Abreu isn't going to win another home run derby, but he still has fine power. Missing Lackey and Santana has started the Angels off on the wrong foot, but they should be able to sustain the losses, as long as they don't go too far into May.

I suppose this is as good of a time as any to mention the loss of Nick Adenhart. As someone who lost a friend at an early age to tragic incident, there really isn't anything that can be said that hasn't been said, or that will add some comfort to what happened.

What the Halos Need? To play this game with Adenhart on their minds. It has to be impossible to go about regular business, but that is what the club needs to do. They need to play this year for Adenhart.

2. Seattle Mariners - I know, crazy, right? Well I don't think so. This team shed a lot of bad weight and has fine hitters and quality defenders around the diamond. I can't understand why they didn't swoop in and scoop up Dallas McPherson, however, the M's may have their sights set on the #1 pick in the 2010 draft, maybe hoping that Strasburg is too difficult to sign?

That said, the Mariners are in a division with holes. The Angels aren't really that good, and both the A's and Rangers are without reliable starters. This would be quite the improvement, but there are still a lot of things that I like about this team. Don't forget the duo at the top of the rotation, one that is arguably as good as any in the American League.

What the Mariners Need? Depth/Power. The outfield is defence first. Griffey Jr adds some power and should be an adequate designated hitter, but first base is a black hole, and their left fielder is more of a bench player then a guy who deserves 600+ plate appearances.

3. Oakland Athletics - If this club had even one pitcher that could be relied on, say Joe Blanton, then I might have them atop the division. I like what they have, specifically in the bullpen, and offensively they are solid, but the rotation is a year away.

I'm typically not a "names" guy. I am, however, concerned about what a player has done, and what I believe they are capable of doing. Trevor Cahill, for example, has a fine career ahead of him. But how can a team expect a pitcher that has walked nearly 4 hitters per 9 innings to at the lower levels of the minors to succeed at the big league level?

What the A's Need? You guessed it, pitching. Find some cheap, "reliable" pitching, and this club could make some noise. Stand pat, and I have a feeling they are in for some major trouble.

4. Texas Rangers - The Rangers have a plan, one that seems very positive. Unfortunately the pitching is a year behind. The club has nothing to worry about, however, as the next two or three years should have them standing alone in the division.

Offensively the Rangers are stacked. This lineup is dangerous, one that has me sitting my starting pitchers when they go up against the Rangers in fantasy baseball. Defensively the club is fine, not spectacular, but fine. The pitching, however, is dreadful - for now.

What the Rangers Need? Time. They may be tempted to rush things with Holland and Feliz, and they may be justified in doing so. However, if the club is not going to make a legitimate run at the playoffs, there isn't any need to push up the service clock of those two.


As I did last year, I will be reflecting on these projections at the All Star Break and season's end.

An Open Letter

I am in the midst of working out my team by team preview for the 2009 season, something that will be much further in depth then what I did last year.

With that, I hope to do a '5 Questions' type thing with fan-bloggers to add to each of my team previews, getting an 'Armchair Experts' opinion on what is going on and what can be expected with each individual club.

Currently I am working on solidifying my questions as well as coming up with a wishlist of contributors. However, I understand that people will be busy with their own season previews and may not get a chance to help out with this.

That said, anyone who reads this and hosts a team-specific site and would like to be apart of this, please send me an email and let me know of your interest. Further, for anyone reading this, if you have a suggestion of an 'expert' you would like to hear from, let me know, and I will do my part in getting that author aboard with this.

Division by Division Recaps (2008 Season's End)

Before the season began I previewed each division. I discussed the major additions and key loses teams had suffered as well as giving my prediction of how teams would finish. I took a look at things at the mid-way point in the season, and came away quite pleased.

In similar fashion, I will also score my predictions utilizing the following formula:

• 1pt: Accurate prediction
• 2pts: Off by one place in the division.
• 3pts: Off by two places in the division.
• 4pts...

Whether I was over or under in my prediction will make no difference in this formula. It will be interesting to note if there are any division or league deviations. That is, whether or not I predict with the same accuracy from division to division and league to league.

In addition, I am going to include the PECOTA standings projection. However, I will not do an accuracy score for the PECOTA projections. Instead, I will simply compare accuracy.

AL East

I believe I am the only person to have picked the Rays to make the playoffs, let alone to win the division. If there is someone else around, I will share my crown as 'smrtest person ever' (intentional typ-o).

Pre Season Predictions:
Tampa
Toronto (*wildcard)
New York
Boston
Baltimore

PECOTA Projected Standings:
New York
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

Actual Standings:
Tampa (1)
Boston (3)
New York (1)
Toronto (3)
Baltimore (1)

3 of 5 correct. I simply flipped Toronto and Boston. I'd say 3 of 5 is pretty impressive. At the midpoint in the season, I had a score of 13. I finished at 9 here.

PECOTA matched me in accurately projecting the finishing places of 3 teams.

AL Central

The Central was an interesting division. Injuries truly affected how the division should have played out. That is, the Indians had terrible luck, losing Martinez, Hafner, and Carmona to major injuries, while the Twins had everything work out to perfection, managing to not suffer a major injury (Pat Neshek withstanding).

Pre Season Predictions:
Cleveland
Chicago
Detroit
Kansas City
Minnesota

PECOTA Projected Standings:
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City

Actual Standings:
Chicago (2)
Minnesota (4)
Cleveland (3)
Kansas City (1)
Detroit (3)

Only got 1 of 5 correct here. I must be given credit for having Detroit way out of the money, something hardly anyone agreed with. Also, Minnesota was my 'surprise team of the year'. Who picked KC to not finish last? Nobody!

I scored 13 at season's end here, the same as where things stood in June.

PECOTA did not accurately predict a single team in the Central, further displaying what a crazy season it was in this division.

AL West

If someone would have told me that Erik Bedard and JJ Putz were going to have zero impact on the Mariners this season, I probably drop them down a spot or two. Had I known Hamilton and Bradley were going to be two of the American League's best hitters, the Rangers would get bumped up.

AL West Predictions:
Seattle
LA Angels
Oakland
Texas

PECOTA Projected Standings:
LA Angels
Oakland
Seattle
Texas

Actual Standings:
LA Angels (2)
Texas (3)
Oakland (1)
Seattle (4)

I accurately predicted 1 of 4, as did PECOTA. The major difference, PECOTA did it at the top, I did it at the bottom.

My division score was again identical, sitting at 10 points. As I mentioned, Seattle was a big whiff for me here and is a team I can see rebounding in 2009 (health permitted).


So here I predicted 5 of 14 positions to be correct. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA nailed 4 of 14. I imagine one would be hard pressed to find a prediction that nailed 5 of 14 spots in the standings.

To the National League...

NL East

It's tough predicting a division where you have so many pre-conceived ideas of teams. A division where you dislike so many teams that you have a tough time placing biases aside and actually getting to the bottom of things. The NL East is that division for me. And while I didn't run away with this division, I certainly did better then Mr. Rosenthal, whom picked the Braves to go all the way!

NL East Predictions:
Philadelphia
Atlanta
New York
Washington
Florida

PECOTA Projected Standings:
New York
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Washington
Florida

Actual NL East Standings:
Philadelphia (1)
New York (2)
Florida (3)
Atlanta (3)
Washington (2)

Again, 1 of 5. Very few had Philly winning the division again and most claimed the Mets were the class of the National League. I scored 11 points here, the same score I had in June. The big surprise, something that I still cannot understand, the performance of the Florida Marlins. I'm still waiting for Jeff Francoeur's season to start.

This division saw me score 11 points for both today and in June.

PECOTA whiffed altogether on this division. They, like everyone else, picked the Mets to win the division.

NL Central

I took a great deal of heat when making my NL Central picks. I felt this was a year that the Cubs simply could not stay healthy. What I failed to acknowledge was how good of a ballplayer Mark DeRosa was!

NL Central Predictions:
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Chicago
Cincinnati
Houston
Pittsburgh

PECOTA Projected Standings:
Chicago
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Houston
Pittsburgh

Actual NL Central Standings:
Chicago (3)
Milwaukee (1)
St. Louis (3)
Houston (2)
Cincinnati (2)
Pittsburgh (1)

2 of 6. Pretty much everyone had St. Louis finishing waaay down in the division without a prayer to make the playoffs. This team was in it up until the last couple weeks of the season. But the Cubs pick is alright. Where would this team have been without Ryan Dempster being lights out? You think they still pick up Rich Harden? Had I known either of these variables would have occurred, chances are I'm picking the Cubs to win this division.

I tossed up a 12 here, 2 points less then I scored in June. A nice turn around.

PECOTA was on fire with that division nailing 3 of 6. Incredible accuracy.

NL West

I was very high on the Dodgers entering this season. Had I known they would land Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake for some minor league prospects, I probably would have bumped them up a slot. So too would have PECOTA I imagine.

NL West Predictions:
Arizona
Los Angeles (*wildcard)
San Diego
Colorado
San Francisco

PECOTA Projected Standings:
Arizona
Los Angeles
Colorado
San Diego
San Francisco

Actual NL West Standings:
Los Angeles (2)
Arizona (2)
Colorado (2)
San Francisco (2)
San Diego (3)

0fer. This is evidence of how impossible it is to accurately predict specific standings. I mean, I have the same bottom three in the division, claiming that none had a shot, I was right. My division score landed at 11 here, 3 points higher then my June predictions.

PECOTA only had the Dodgers losing out to the Diamondbacks by a marginal amount, but they made a great call in dropping the Padres out of the playoffs. I didn't see the playoffs, but I at least thought this club could be competitive.


Overall, I accurately projected 8 teams. PECOTA, also 8. In terms of playoff teams, I picked 3 of 8 correctly. PECOTA was fairly accurate dependent on their wild cards.

League Comparison:
American League - 32 (-4)
National League - 34 (+1)

Overall, I made some strides from the midway point. Where I took a marginal step back in the National League, I made up the equivalent of 4 spots in the standings. My final line sits at 66 compared to 69 in June.

For curiosity sake, let's quickly tally PECOTA's score:
AL East - 9
AL Central - 15
AL West - 8

NL East - 13
NL Central - 10
NL West - 9

American League - 32
National League - 32

PECOTA's projections were surprisingly consistent. In both cases they posted identical scores surpassing my projections by 2 points.


Overall, I have to say I am rather happy with how my predictions compare to that of PECOTA's. While the PECOTA system is predominantly computer based, mine is also based on emotions-which could explain the rankings of Boston, Toronto, Seattle, and Washington. Either way, I hope the 'accuracy' of my predictions will encourage readers to check out my work for seasons to come. It will also be interesting to see how, if at all, I manage to improve on a season by season basis.

Enjoy the playoffs!

Ray Pride Part V - 9 = 8 = Magic Number of 1

Well, the season is yet to be completed but with the Rays magic number sitting at 1, and the Red Sox trailing the Jays by 4 in the bottom of the 2nd inning (at the Rogers Dome) it looks as though at least one of my preseason predictions is going to be accurate.

That's right, TheOLIB readers saw it here first. On March 27th, I proclaimed the Rays to make the playoffs, and better yet, to win the division. While other publications claimed the Rays would take steps in 2008, suggesting a historic season in Tampa (finishing with greater then 70 wins), I went out on a limb and took the Rays as my choice of class in the American League East.

True, I have spent some time 'prizing' my ego throughout this very series (Read Ray Pride Part One, Two, Three, and Four), but is it not partially acceptable? Keep in mind, this is a Rays team, that despite sitting in first place at the All Star break, was still being written off as a legitimate contender in the East and would have had difficulties making the playoffs.

Still, sitting mere hours away from the Rays clinching their first ever playoff birth, people still are not taking this team for real. Experts and insiders would take the Red Sox, not the Rays to represent the American League in the World Series. Those who had never before pointed to the pythagorean standings, would assert it is simply illogical not to pick the Sox.


Clearly the mindset has not changed. The very day I posted my preseason picks for the American League East, a reader wrote in to ask if I was celebrating April Fool's on an earlier date? (although in a not so clever manner) Over at the Bleacher Report, I had multiple readers call me out.

According to reader Alfred,

"[T]hat was the single dumbest article I have read in a LONGGG time..."

Thayne commented,

"Switch the Rays and Sox then you make more sense. Interesting read for sure!"

Thayne was suggesting I drop the Rays to 4th (where most figured the team to finish) and the Sox be bumped up to first (similar to the popularly held belief within mainstream media). It was nice that he gave me credit for an 'interesting read', I just hope that wasn't to be taken negatively.

I did have a few readers at least agree with my logic as I claimed the Rays made enough minor moves, and had enough breakout candidates to make a legitimate run at things. Coupled with a vastly improved defensive infield, this team was bound to break out,

In fact, [Evan] Longoria’s presence and the addition of [Jason] Bartlett will make the Rays infield solid both defensively and offensively. Also look for [Carl] Crawford and [B.J.] Upton to be among the best outfielders (again both defensively and offensively) in the American League.

With all that said, I hope the Rays have not been upset with me borrowing them as my adopted team. While it took last weekend's 3 game Royal sweep for me to officially give up on the Indians, a small part of me has been rooting for the Rays since Opening Day.

"What Would the Outsider Do" - New Series

Posting has been sporadic, at best. As of today, that will come to an end.

The Outsiders Look will begin a series that takes a look at the current situation of a team and asserts what I would do if I were in the front office hot seat. This series will 'fix' any glaring problems within an organization and provide a hypothetical opening day lineup.

Salaries and salary constraints will not be entirely ignored, however this facet will also not be analyzed from an in depth perspective and will only play a marginal factor in creating an 'ideal' lineup. That is, while every team would certainly love to have CC Sabathia for the 2009 season (although I would be weary of signing him), only one team is able to have the big man and few teams can logically afford him. Thus, while adding Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jason Giambi would make the Nationals a significantly superior team, it isn't going to happen.

Additionally, long term potential and organizational depth will be looked at. The Royals, for example, are not one piece from being a championship team, nor would the front office in Kansas City consider moving Alex Gordon and Billy Butler for upgrades today, that would hurt them tomorrow. Furthermore, an organization with a top teir catcher in the system (read: Baltimore Orioles-Matt Wieters) isn't going to break the bank to bring in a Pudge Rodriguez.

Long term potential will also be looked at from a, 'can this team win' perspective. There are certain teams that have a plan and I would hate to assert that I know exactly what that plan is, and/or ignore that plan altogether. With that in mind, a player like Wily Mo Pena will have more value to a team like the Giants then he would to a team like the Mets. Presumably, the Giants front office will not be reading WWOD and Pena will go on to be bench fodder with a team like the Cardinals while the Giants fail to score runs in the air.


What a perfect segway into the first installment of WWOD. On Wednesday I will take a look at the San Francisco Giants and what I would do with their team. The series will begin with teams that are 'out of it' and work towards a conclusion around the World Series.

Tribe Chase - "Can't Stop, Won't Stop"

The Tribe are really putting things together lately, winning 9 straight. The club is 17 and 7 for the month of August. In this time, they have went from last in the division (5th worst record in all of baseball) all the way up to 3rd in the division, boasting the leagues 16th best record. With Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner set to return in the coming week, the Tribe could make a mess of the playoff picture in the American League.

This is not overreacting to the point where I am anointing the Tribe, kings of the Central, far from it. Rather, the Tribe are no longer a push over and a team which needs to be heavily prepared for. With 13 combined games remaining against the brutal Royals, Mariners, and Orioles, the Indians could very well get themselves into the Wild Card picture.

However, even if that does not occur, the run the Indians have gone on as of late has to be at the very least rewarding for a team that has been decimated with MAJOR injuries. Losing a Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner for two months or more would be a devastating blow to any franchise. For the cost efficient Indians, those loses are that much more substantial. Add in the trades of CC Sabathia and Casey Blake, which were directly related to the injuries to the aforementioned three, and this team has arguably been without 5 of its top 7 or 8 players for a third or more of the season.

To put this into perspective, imagine the Twins without Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Joe Nathan. Or the Angels without Vlad Guerrero, Torri Hunter, and Francisco Rodriguez. Certainly injuries are a part of baseball, but the type of loses the Indians have encountered this season have been nearly impossible to overcome.

Consider a team that has endured this many injuries and if the team was playing up to their expected level (as per Baseball Prospectus' Pythagorean formula), the Indians would be sitting fewer then 8 games away from the wild card. Now, have a team with a healthy Martinez. Keep Sabathia in town. Add a bat or reliever near the trade deadline. Even if the Indians did not win any of their additional games against the Red Sox, Twins, or White Sox (the teams they would be fighting for a playoff spot with), this team is certainly within striking distance with September ahead.

But "that is why they play the games", that is why even the best projection systems are only correct on 50% of the trials, that is why, you don't laugh at someone for picking the Rays to win the division!

Go TRIBE!

(Note - The K Tribe has a much more appealing logo then the big league Tribe)

Ray Pride Part IV - When it RAYnS it Pours

Every once in a while you find a musician that is writing the type of music that fits perfectly with how you as an individual are feeling. This isn't an often occurrence, nor does it seem like one you can anticipate or look forward to, rather, it simply occurs and it takes that moment to realize that it happened.

This fall, Chuck Ragan, Tim Berry, and Ben Nichols are taking their acoustic guitars on the road for a tour tabbed 'The Revival'. The musicians will perform solo sets, as well as collaborating with one another. Along the way, the tour will pick up musicians to open, one of which, Mr. Austin Lucas.

I never thought I would be one to get into this type of music ('this' being so-country, so-bluegrass). In any event, this is a musician I highly recommend.


The Tampa Bay Rays have been served up with a fair amount of unfortunate luck over the past couple of weeks. Despite this, they remain in control of the American League East by three games as they finished up their west coast road trip. During this road trip, the Rays have rhymed off 5 wins in 7 games due mostly in part to the clubs deep and highly underrated bullpen.

At the beginning of the year, I wrote that Troy Percival would be the clubs biggest addition. His presence alone should help some of the young, inexperienced bullpen arms come around. Additionally, his presence allowed pitchers such as Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and J.P. Howell to take on less stressful roles. Interestingly, these 'lesser roles' have resulted in Howell, Balfour, and Wheeler being the three most valuable relievers, respectively.


The Rays season has been especially spectacular with all of the hurdles the club has had to climb to get to this point. Entering the season, the Rays anticipated Rocco Baldelli to have at least a minor role with the team out of Spring Training. A degenerative disease to the muscles nearly pushed Rocco to retirement in mid-March. While the loss of Baldelli would not have been a reason behind any failures of the Rays, the teams resiliency despite missing one of their key bats is a testament to the teams depth.

Another hit came in the form of missing team ace, and Cy Young hopeful, Scott Kazmir for the first month of the season. This could have been a factor in sinking the Rays hopes at exceeding a franchise best, 70 wins, although expectations were higher entering this season (see 9=8). Kazmir has struggled to be a true stopper for the Rays this season, in that he is going under 6 innings per start.

As if missing the teams ace, and starting right fielder/designated hitter were not enough, Dioner Navarro exited a game early in April after a cut opened on his hand that resulted in 12 stitches and an 18 day absence. To lose three players in the span of a week is a big blow for any team, let alone a team that had never had a winning season.

At this point, the Rays had been off to a relatively quick start, winning 3 of 4 games and beating division rivals in Baltimore and New York. However, a couple days later, the Rays took two more hits to their 25 man roster, placing Cliff Floyd and Matt Garza on the 15 disabled list.

The loss of Floyd was not a big one from a performance stand point. Yes, the club had higher hopes for his production this season, but he was brought in to be a mentor and a clubhouse leader. Missing a month is a hit nonetheless, and one the Rays seemingly dealt with in stride going 17 and 14.

Garza, on the other hand, should have provided a much greater loss, as his missed starts meant the Rays would be forced to use both their 6th and 7th starters. The time off for Garza, however, obviously helped, as the 24 year old has been downright dominant posting an ERA below 3.50 since.

As of April 11th, the Rays had lost five projected starters and were about to lose another. The loss of Willy Aybar, however, was a blessing in disguise.

At this point, Evan Longoria had not been tearing the cover off of the ball in triple A, although we are talking about a seven game sample size, and any statistics would be useless.

Longoria was off to a nice start, showing adequate power and strong plate discipline. His opening month line of .273/.388/.527 showed that Evan was ready for the majors and that the 22 year old had star written all over him.

While May was not as friendly to the rookie, his ability to play slick defense allowed for the Rays to keep Longoria in the lineup. Improved defensive play is one of the main reasons the Rays have seen such an improvement from the 2007. The combination of Bartlett at shortstop, Longoria at third, and BJ Upton in center have made the Rays a formidable defensive squad and taps into Andrew Friedman's plan of 'preventing' runs.

Injuries to minor contributors such as Al Reyes and Gary Glover indirectly made the Rays a better team. These injuries allowed Grant Balfour and JP Hammel to have more prominent roles on the team.

The Rays could not go a month without suffering a major injury. On May 29th, the club placed closer Troy Percival on the 15 day DL with a hamstring injury. Missing only the minimum did not set the Rays back too much, as they went from having a 1.5 game lead in the division to trailing by 1.5 games. Percival's return solidified a bullpen which had proven itself during the veteran's absence and developed a confidence within the team. At this point, manager Joe Maddon proclaimed that no one was here on 'scholarship' any longer, and that the roster was built on performance.

A week after sending Troy Percival to the disabled list, the club was struck with another blow. Slugging first basemen Carlos Pena had been hit by a pitch and would need some time off to recover. After missing nearly a month, Pena returned and has since posted the two best months of his season. The club did not miss a beat in his absence and finally began working their way into the national spot light. I suppose being the best team in baseball at the end of June is the only way to get some recognition?

July saw the Rays take a few more hits, including the loss of slick fielding short stop Jason Bartlett. Bartlett's season to that point had been less then desirable. While he was still performing at a high level with his glove, his offensive contributions were minimal if any at all. However, Bartlett had shown improvements and was beginning to hold his own at the dish-until he went down with a right knee injury. Nothing serious, but going nearly a month without your best defensive infielder is a tough blow for any team.

Troy Percival and Gary Glover again found themselves on the disabled list. Although, like earlier in the season, the Rays were able to over come these loses as their young arms had built up the confidence to step in and contribute at a high level. The hitters were all coming around and the Rays looked imposing. The team entered the all star break on their lowest note of the season, and many were writing the Rays off-a 'nice' story, but not good enough to overcome America's team, Red Sox Nation.

The trade deadline passed, and much to my chagrin, the Rays avoided making a deal to improve their roster. The team had it's most healthy lineup of the season, and despite only a 3 game lead in the division, Andrew Friedman stood pat. There had been rumor that the Rays struck a deal with the Pirates to acquire Jason Bay, however that never came to fruition and Bay became a Red Sock.

The Rays did make a move after the non-waiver deadline, acquiring reliever Chad Bardford from the Baltimore Orioles. While Bradford is no Fuentes, or any other of the top available relievers, his arrival strengthens an already strong Rays bullpen.

But then the world re-aligned itself and reason for a salary cap began pouring in to the world of baseball. Carl Crawford tore a tendon in his right hand, in all likelihood, the Rays left fielder, and a top of the order bat, would be gone for the rest of the season. Nearly two months without one of your top hitters-time to pack it in boys, nice run.

That, however, was not enough. A day later, the Rays moved Evan Longoria to the disabled list (retroactive to August 8th). The reports were mixed, Longoria had been hit by a pitch and his wrist had swelled up. After sitting out a couple of games, it sounded as if the injury was not serious and Longoria would be back shortly. Longoria was later placed on the DL with a 'fractured' right wrist. He is projected to be out the rest of the month, however one of his check ups had been pushed back, so it is yet to be seen what will happen with Longoria.

As if losing two of the teams three best hitters in a 24 hour span was not enough, the baseball god's errected a voodoo Ray in Boston for New Englanders to take a hack at. Troy Percival headed to the disabled list once again, and the team was now without 3 of its top 11 performers (as per FanGraphs WPA).


The Rays now sit 5.5 games ahead of the second place Red Sox atop the American League East. The team has outperformed their expected win-loss record, however not be an insurmountable amount-probably by enough that can be accredited to having one of the top defensive teams in baseball.

The Red Sox are currently fighting for the wild card, and while they still have their sights on the division, the Rays have enough of a lead to feel confident and comfortable atop the division. I won't say the P word, but it is looking good for my pre-season darlings.

Division by Division Recaps

Before the season began I previewed each division. I discussed the major additions and key loses teams had suffered as well as giving my prediction of how teams would finish. At what most are referring to as the 'mid way point' of the season, it feels like the appropriate time to reflect upon those predictions.

I will score my predictions utilizing the following formula. If I nail the position of the team, 1 point will be tabulated. If I am off by one place in the division, 2 points, by two places, 3 points, and so on. Whether I was over or under in my prediction will make no difference in this formula. It will be interesting to note if there are any division or league deviations. That is, whether or not I predict with the same accuracy from division to division and league to league.

Note: All standings based up to, and including, June 28, 2008.

AL East

In the comment section of this division a reader called me a 'fool'. Good for him. Really, the Jays are the only team to truly disappoint, while the Rays are my pride and joy prediction.

Pre Season Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles

Mid Point Standings
Boston Red Sox (4)
Tampa Bay Rays (2)
New York Yankees (1)
Baltimore Orioles (2)
Toronto Blue Jays (4)

I would look for the division to stay somewhat the same with the Jays passing the Orioles. The Rays are behind the Red Sox by 0.2% and could technically overtake them this coming week as they do have a game in hand.

Division Score - 13

AL Central

The Indians have disappointed everyone. Injuries and under performances have been the major culprits. While the record is worse then it should be, given the teams run differential, the club hasn't been very consistent.

Pre Season Prediction
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins

Mid Point Standings
Chicago White Sox (2)
Minnesota Twins (4)
Detroit Tigers (1)
Cleveland Indians (4)
Kansas City Royals (2)

Despite following the Central slightly closer then the rest of the American League, the results were somewhat the same. The Twins, a team whom I selected as a surprise team of 2008. The Tigers are making quite the run and will probably shake up the division a little, I still don't see them as a playoff team with that rotation and such a weak farm system.

Division Score - 13

AL West

There is a chance I live in the eastern time zone and watch very little west coast baseball. There is a chance that I underrate the Angels because their farm system continues to disappoint once the players make the show. Or maybe I just don't like the Angels of Anaheim in Los Angeles.

Pre Season Prediction
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers

Mid Point Standings
Los Angeles Angels (2)
Oakland Athletics (2)
Texas Rangers (2)
Seattle Mariners (4)

I truly do not understand what is going on in Seattle. I figured between Bedard and Hernandez the rotation would be excellent and Putz would continue to dominate in the bullpen. My pre season pick to win the Cy Young is performing at a high level, but Bedard has not brought it like he was supposed to and Putz has been awful. Oh, and the Athletics are somehow a very good ballclub.

Division Score - 10

NL East

When the Mets acquired Santana most people were writing them into the World Series. Those same people were also wondering if the Marlins could win 70 games without Cabrera. Bizzaro baseball, according to Sports Illustrated, should have been written about the National League East, instead of the American League East when one considers the predictions made by the magazine.

Pre Season Predictions
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins

Mid Point Standings
Philadelphia Phillies (1)
Florida Marlins (4)
Atlanta Braves (2)
New York Mets (2)
Washington Nationals (2)

The Nationals flat out stink and the Marlins are greatly over achieving. If the season was played on paper, looking at runs scored and allowed, the Marlins would be in forth and the Braves and Mets would bump up a slot. In other words, I would be off by the slimmest of margins.

Division Score - 11

NL Central

Probably the most passionate and outspoken fans come from the the National League Central. I was ripped up after posting this article at The Bleacher Report with comments ranging from 'saddest article', to 'insane'. Interestingly, these same people are nowhere to be found today.

Pre Season Predictions
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

Mid Point Standings
Chicago Cubs (3)
St. Louis Cardinals (2)
Milwaukee Brewers (2)
Pittsburgh Pirates (3)
Houston Astros (1)
Cincinnati Reds (3)

The Cubs are definitely surprising me, although I am confident many of the players are playing above their heads. Although the same can be said for St. Louis I suppose. All of Pittsburgh, Houston, and Cincinnati are terrible teams and are essentially interchangeable. Thus, this is a very winnable division for the Brew Crew.

Division Score - 14

NL West

Similar to the American League West, but to an even further extent, this is a division I don't see often. This division is definitely disappointing and at times, tough to watch.

Pre Season Predictions
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants

Mid Point Standings
Arizona Diamondbacks (1)
Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
San Francisco Giants (3)
Colorado Rockies (1)
San Diego Padres (3)

The Giants are in third? Wow! But outside of that, I will most likely be patting myself on the back all season. The Diamondbacks are the class of the division, with the Dodgers still in search of some legitimate power. Watch out for the Rockies as the club returns to health. A hot start to July could put them, and their deep farm system, in the CC Sabathia sweepstakes.

Division Score - 8


That I predicted the National League West with the best accuracy is extremely surprising. This is by far the division which I follow the least.

League Comparison:
American League - 36
National League - 33

In addition to best predicting the NL West, being on the ball with the entire National League is startling. A theory could be that watching so much American League baseball has created a bais with my predictions and projections. Clearly players who come through the Indians system have a soft spot in my heart, little did I know that was true about the American League in general.

At some point this week I will take a look at my award predictions and work through some updated predictions.

Division by Division Preview - NL East

To be a shock jock…On ESPN Radio this morning Colin Cowherd reported a study conducted by CBS that reported those with a college education and who make more then fifty thousand dollars are more likely to believe that Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds should not be allowed into Baseball’s Hall of Fame. Although there are a lot of questions regarding the survey performed, the conclusions are interesting.

The reason why I opened this Division Preview with this is because I want to remind readers that an opinion and conclusion can be formed on any basis. While the ‘wealthy’ and ‘educated’ believe that Clemens and Bonds cheated so much that they should not be eligible for the HOF is laughable. However, this does not mean that those who entered this survey are wrong, although I would argue they are misinformed.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
I am a big fan of what the Phil’s are bringing to the table offensively. This club had an impressive turnaround in 2007 and surprised a lot of people following what was thought to be a rebuilding year after giving up Bobby Abreu for salary relief the previous season. The Phillies are improved from the team that was on the field for Opening Day 2007 and that team won the division.

The rotation is much improved over the starters they had at the end of the year last season. Bret Myers is back in the rotation after starting only three games in 2007. Hamels is one of the most promising youngsters in baseball and if he can find a way to be healthy this season, should give the Phillies one of the best one-two punches in all of baseball. One has to wonder what is going on with the rest of the rotation, but it appears as though they have just enough to let the bullpen and hitters to win the division.

The bullpen should be a strength from start to finish this season. Tom Gordon will get the ball in the ninth while Brad Lidge. Obviously the Phillies are banking on Lidge being the closer he has shown he is capable of being. It will be interesting to see if JC “free pass” Romero can repeat one of the most fortunate seasons in the league last year.

Even with the loss of Rowand, I believe that this club will be better offensively in 2008 then they were in 2007. Consider not only the injury to Chase Utley but the slow start of Ryan Howard last season. Consider that the Phil’s may have the best RF in all of baseball if the platoon works out the way the splits suggest. This team will put up crooked numbers with regularity. Their home ballpark will again aide this team and its new hitters.

Major Addition: Pedro Feliz – After getting fewer then 20 home runs from their third basemen in 2007, the Phillies finally have a player that can be a threat in this deep lineup. Feliz should hit 5^th or 6^th instead of 3^rd or 4^th which alone should improve his chances at breaking out. Moving to Citizens Bank Ballpark will only further improve his numbers and 30 home runs are very likely from this new acquisition. This signing may go down as one of the top 3 or 4 moves from the off season.

Major Subtraction: Jon Lieber – While his addition to the Cubs is essentially a non-factor, leaving the Phillies takes away depth and will force the club to utilize some terrible pitchers in spot start situations.

Breakout Candidate: Shane Victorino – Missing 30 games and having to play hurt in others definitely stunted the season Victorino was having. In fantasy drafts Carl Crawford is taken with one of the first 20 picks yet Victorino is being taken some 80 picks later. I’m not quite willing to suggest Victorino is the equivalent to Crawford, but if Shane can stay healthy this season, WATCH OUT!

2. Atlanta Braves
How many teams can lose a type B free agent and not even feel the effects of it? I am not entirely certain why the Braves went after Mark Kotsay, but possibly the hype of many years ago will finally prove to be valid. Give this team a weekend series against the Mets and it is tough to imagine many New Yorkers tuning in on Sunday to watch their Mets being run over by the Braves pitching.

Atlanta has a capable, old and talented rotation. The top two starters will provide outstanding production and can go head to head with the starting two of any team in the league. Jair Jurrjens has the potential to be an outstanding pitching in the National League. If he can maintain his control and keep allowing his fielders to do the work, he should have a career close to that of teammate Tim Hudson. And fifth starter Mike Hampton may be as good as it gets, if not in the league, then at least the division. Consider that the worst NRA Hampton owned in the 2.5 seasons prior to his injury (4.37) would have put him at #26 in the National League during the 2007 season.

The bullpen could be excellent or terrible. If Soriano can throw all season without issue, he should be one of the top 3 or 4 closers in the NL. Mike Gonzalez will be back around mid-season and should provide a solid boost to the bullpen. Outside of that, the Braves will hope for further development from the youngsters they are going with. Not bringing in a veteran, although a good decision in the long run may be the reason this team lags behind in 2008.

Offensively, I look for the Braves to be better in 2008 then they were in 2007 despite the subtraction of both Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria. The development of Francouer, McCann, Johnson and a full season of Teixeira will more then make up for whatever the club had last season. However, this team is not without fault offensively, as similar to their bullpen, the club lacks reliable depth. An injury to oft-injured Chipper Jones could completely derail the Braves hopes in 2008.

Major Addition: Jair Jurrjens – I wrote about him above and will stick with my comments. Jurrjens has solid stuff which enabled him to cruise through the minor leagues. I cannot see a way that the Tigers do not regret trading him away, no matter how good their 2008 rotation is and no matter how much Renteria brings to the table. Interestingly, the Braves essentially acquired Jurrjens for failed prospect Andy Marte.

Major Subtraction: Octavio Dotel – This is the veteran presence I was referring to when I discussed the bullpen earlier. While the ChiSox overpaid for Dotel’s services and gave him far too many years, Dotel is still extremely valuable and would have proven to be a season long stabilizer for the Braves.

Breakout Candidate: Jeff Francouer – Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus did an outstanding article on Frenchy in the middle of January. Since that point I have been sold on the kid yet unable to pull the trigger on him in any fantasy drafts. 35 home runs are likely.

3. New York Mets
I’ve already discussed my displeasure for old teams with the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox. The Mets are no different and if not for a devastatingly terrible bottom of the division, I would consider ranking the Mets lower. Offensively the club is going to struggle to remain healthy. Defensively the club is old and may end up being one of the worst in the league. Their pitching staff has a lot of talent, but pitching is never a sure thing and should rarely be counted on.

Adding Johan Santana gave the Mets a legitimate #1, truly legitimate; as in the best in baseball. Pitching at Shea in the National League should do for Santana what moving to Arizona did for Randy Johnson. Pedro Martinez looked great essentially rehabbing in 2007, but his velocity dropped for at least a third straight season and his reliance on a curveball all be disappeared (courtesy Fan Graphs). As much as I like the guy, he is the furthest thing from a guarantee this season. This leads to the Mets reliance on Perez and Maine, neither of whom should be relied on for much more then #5-type numbers in 2008. The loss of Glavine will be felt as well as the injury to 75 year old El Duqe. Expect the Mets to further weaken their minor league system in an attempt to buy the division in 2008.

The bullpen is one of my favorite in baseball. Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano and Schoeneweis make for an incredible deep top of the bullpen. Two of my favorites, Burgos and Sanchez will start their seasons on the disabled list. Although this is not a debilitating blow, although it is one that will need to be monitored throughout the system as the Mets will not be able to afford many other injuries. Joe Smith is a guy to watch out for this year as I believe the Mets will give him a larger and larger role as the season goes on.

Offensively the Mets have three of the best weapons in the Majors. Wright, Reyes and Beltran give the Mets and their opponents a very difficult top of the order. However that is essentially where it stops. Age, injuries and inefficiency will derail any substantial runs the team may go on in an inning. While Alou, Delgado and Church are all capable hitters, expecting any one of them to be at 100% for 120-130 games is irrational. Thus, Moises Alou for 110 games plus Angel Pagan for 52 is essentially as bad of a left field as the Giant have.

Major Addition: Johan Santana – I probably don’t even need to waste my time with this. And despite my belief that the Mets overpaid (both in dollars and prospects) for his services, but for the 2008 season, he should make Met fans forget about the cost.

Major Subtraction: Tom Glavine – Essentially a wash with Santana’s arrival, losing Glavine weakens the rotation. A close runner up could be the loss of Paul LoDuca, whom despite his attitude; LoDuca is still at least league average offensively. His replacement, Brian Schneider may be just as well served not swinging at all. If the Mets are worried about defensive production, they should have started elsewhere.

Breakout Candidate: Joe Smith – Having had an extremely successful rookie campaign, expect Smith to breakout with additional responsibilities placed upon him. Look for Smith to vulture some saves and even be a consistent reliever in the 7^th and possibly even the 8^th inning.

4. Washington Nationals
Unfortunately the Nationals are without much of a farm system and worse yet, haven’t any reliable arms with the big club. However, the club is stacked with high ceiling hitters and has an ample amount of potential trade chips. Felipe Lopez, Dmitri Young and Wily Mo Pena are three such players whom are going to have to put in a lot of work in order to earn full time roles with the club in 2008. Either that, or luck out with injuries to their teammates. Expect at least one of the three to be moved for minor league pitching.

If I sat down with Nats GM Jim Bowden, before I even introduced myself I would ask him why he released John Patterson. I can accept that he may not have fit into the teams plans for 2008, but how Bowden did not make a trade, just get something for Patterson is beyond me, especially for this ball club. Outside of that, the Nationals haven’t any pitchers that a Major League team would fear meeting in any game of a series-in fact, the Nationals currently have only 4 pitchers listed on their MLB.com depth chart. The signing of Perez was a good one and he had a nice Opening Day start which could prove a sign for things to come.

There is not a whole lot of excitement in the bullpen, but when you have a rotation like the Nationals do, expecting to have many 7^th, 8^th or 9^th inning leads is senseless. However, between Rivera, Rauch, Colume, Cordero and Ayala, the Nats have a decent bunch that should allow the club to squeak out wins on the rare occasion their starters have a quality start.

Offensively, the club has as much potential as anyone in the Majors. That is not to say that the club is going to go on to lead the league in runs, but the Nats are well on their way to building a winning club. Ryan Zimmerman, Lasting Milledge, and Elijah Dukes are some of the most talented youngsters in the league, watch for each of them to make considerable strides in 2008. Austin Kearns and Nick Johnson are de facto veterans who put up tough at bats and have some solid offensive potential. Watch out for Kearns as his home/road splits were ridiculous in 2007.

Major Addition: Elijah Dukes – While Milledge will probably be the better major leaguer in the short and long term, the Nats acquired Dukes for NOTHING. Agreed, the cost of Milledge was not a whole lot, Dukes was brought aboard for nothing. In 2007, Dukes, the then 23 year old, hit 10 home runs in 182 at bats, which prorates out to 33 home runs over the course of 600 at bats. In an easier league, no longer as a rookie, 30 home runs is definitely achievable for Dukes with full playing time. His strikeout to walk ratio was incredible for a 23 year old rookie, which is evidence enough for me that Dukes is capable of being an excellent everyday hitter.

Major Subtraction: John Patterson – When a team drops their best pitcher one has to wonder what is going on. Although Patterson did not add much in 2007, he is still young enough to offer up some solid potential.

Breakout Candidate: Austin Kearns – It feels as if Kearns has been around forever and put his potential on display year after year. This year, Kearns gets to leave RFK where he is a career .727 slugging outfielder or 100 points lower then he hit on the road in 2007. If the new ballpark is about an average hitter’s park, expect Kearns to return as a .300 hitter with 25-30 home runs as his ceiling.

5. Florida Marlins
The Marlins are going to be dreadful in 2008. However, even if they did not move Willis or Cabrera the Marlins would have been dreadful while profiting a lot less money this coming season. That said, the amount of players and potential they received from the Tigers is tremendous. The Marlins GM also did well to bring aboard youngsters whom other teams had given up on, namely Jorge Cantu.

The rotation has a lot of upside despite a heck of a lot of injuries. 2008 isn’t going to matter for the Marlins anyways, so there is no need to rush back Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, etc. Really, there isn’t much to write here. Mark Hendrickson is said to be the Opening Day starter and I would be wasting my time and yours by going into detail about that. Andrew Miller shouldn’t be with the big league club this year, but the Marlins don’t have many other healthy options and his service clock is already going.

I like this bullpen. Although, like the Nationals, how much value does a good bullpen do this club? Kevin Gregg is a nice, yet unspectacular closer. Miller, Tankersley, Lindstrom and Kensing are all nice, young and cheap relievers, but if there isn’t a lead to hold what is the difference between me and one of those three taking the hill?

Offensively the Marlins do not have much. Hanley Ramirez will not see a strike, even on a 3-0 count, Dan Uggla isn’t that good to begin with and Jeremy Hermida prefers the disabled list over stardom. Beyond that, the Marlins have a core of role players whom are receiving full time jobs. I like Jorge Cantu, but he hasn’t been good since launching a rocket in the World Baseball Classic.

Major Addition: Jorge Cantu – He is no Miguel Cabrera, but for a team that had no intentions of spending money or prospects to acquire a replacement, Cantu will provide close wins per dollars spent that Cabrera would have.

Major Subtraction: Miguel Cabrera – One of the top 4 or 5 players in the majors, any time you lose a player of this talent you are going to feel it. Despite the fact that the Marlins were not drawing any fans and had not much of a chance at competing in 2008, they will still miss Cabrera.

Breakout Candidate: Jeremy Hermida – The youngster was touted as a ‘can’t miss’ prospect coming through the ranks. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy for an entire season, but despite that, Hermida put up outstanding numbers in the second half of 2007. With relatively sustainable batted ball data, look for Hermida to surprise the league if healthy!

Division by Division Preview - AL East

Onto the final third of the league, the most potent division and the one in which I will probably receive the greatest amount of disdain for my predictions. In fact, I may lose my badge as baseball writer/blogger altogether. This is a division that in my opinion is in a state of drastic change. With the Orioles all but written off for the year, this is still a deep and strong division that has, in my opinion, four teams that could win any of baseballs other five divisions.

AL East

1. Tampa Bay Rays

I hope I haven’t already lost my readers, but hear me out. There is not another team in the division, let alone the league that has as much potential as the Rays have. Top to bottom, the team has breakout candidates and can match up player for player with any team in the league. With a little bit of luck, this team should be the best team in baseball. Furthermore, consider that the Rays used BJ Upton at second base for 48 games in 2007 which essentially single handedly led to the Devil Rays having the worst defensive efficiency in the Majors.

Also, consider the depth of the Rays farm system. With youngsters at essentially every spot in the lineup, the club can afford to make a major trade this season to fill a team need. In fact, if a CC Sabathia becomes available on the open market, is there another team with more trading chips then the Rays?

The pitching rotation is young but extraordinarily talented. Kazmir, Shields and Garza make up as good of a trio as anyone in the majors owns. If a club has to run into these three for a series, watch out! The bottom of the rotation is more uncertain due to their rawness. As is, I am uncertain how things will shake out, but either way, the pitchers taking up the last two spots in the rotation should be at least league average-when compared to other pitchers at their places in the rotation. Sonnanstine and Howell would be my picks, although both would be on a short leash.

The bullpen should be much stronger in 2007 with the addition of Percival. I also feel that given Edwin Jackson an extended look in the 7^th inning and have Percival be his mentor. The kid has the stuff; he is just erratic and could probably use a positive role model. This is not the Rays strongest area, but as I mentioned, they have the depth in the minor league system to make moves, I wonder how long the Rocks hang on to Fuentes?

Offensively the Rays have enormous potential. Navarro is on the cusp of great things in my opinion and should really help the team develop. It is only a matter of time before Evan Longoria is the everyday guy at the hot corner and while he may be a year or two from being David Wright, he’s infinitely better then what the Rays had at the position in 2007. In fact, Longoria’s presence and the addition of Bartlett will make the Rays infield solid both defensively and offensively. Also look for Crawford and Upton to be among the best outfielders (again both defensively and offensively) in the American League.

Breakout Candidate: Dioner Navarro – I wrote about him at length at Baseball Digest Daily, and my opinion still stands. Navarro is having an excellent Spring and looks to be ready to build off of a solid 2007 second half.

Major Addition: Matt Garza – The Rays haven’t had the best luck developing starting pitchers and Garza has the ability to be an ace. He will be the number three guy in Tampa and won’t be relied on heavily to contribute what he is capable of doing.

Major Subtraction: Rocco Baldelli/Elijah Dukes – It sounds as if Rocco’s career is over, and he wasn’t that much assistance in 2007, but the team was counting on him to help in the outfield in 2008. In fact, I ascertain that much of the reason the Rays were willing to let Dukes go (personality issues aside) was the thinking that the outfield would be too crowded in 2008.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

Hopefully my analysis of the Rays saved me to this point, but hears me out. The Jays suffered a lot of major injuries and underperformance in 2007 yet only finished 13 games out of first in the league. Comparatively, the Red Sox had an essentially perfect season and only tied the Indians. Furthermore, the Jays were 9 and 9 against the Sox, and 6 and 10 against the Yankees. Give them a winning record against either team and they are a 90 win team. Take away a few victories from the Yanks and Sox and the Jays are in the playoffs. I am predicting that the Jays will be the 2008 AL Wild Card team.

The rotation is in tact and should provide the same, if not better numbers as 2007 (when they finished tied for 7^th in starter ERA). Consider now that McGowan and Marcum have room to improve. Additionally Halladay and Burnett have better seasons in them then they displayed last year. Could this be the American Leagues best division? Maybe with a trade for an expiring starter the Jays could stabilize the final spot in the rotation. Let us also remember the awful Ohka, Zambrano and Kennedy trials from 2007, at worst, the number 5 spot this year will equal last years.

The bullpen finished 3^rd in the Majors in ERA. BJ Ryan is returning and looks strong in Spring. His injury in 2007 ended up being a blessing in disguise as it allowed young pitchers such as Downs and Accardo to show their dependability. While the loss of Jansen will definitely be felt, it is softened by the fact that Ryan has returned.

Look for the Jays to be a vastly superior team in 2008 then they were in 2007. Vernon Wells should be more determined then ever to prove that the big contract he received last winter was not a waste. Frank Thomas and Lyle Overbay both vastly underperformed last year, so one can look forward to bounce back seasons from that duo. Rios is a player who is still coming into his own and the left field platoon, while terrible in the field, should provide the same if not superior offensive punch as 2007. I also anticipate that Adam Lind will be moved at some point this season to help fill whatever void the Jays may have.

Breakout Candidate: Dustin McGowan – The hard throwing righty really turned things on in the second half of last season. He helped himself out by shaving off some walks in the second half as well as adding a substantial amount to his strikeouts. If he can maintain the batted ball data from a year ago, he will be a real surprise in 2008.

Major Addition: Scott Rolen – Despite fracturing a finger that will keep him out of the Jays lineup for the first month and a bit of the season, Rolen’s presence will greatly improve the infield defense. Although…

Major Subtraction: Troy Glaus – The Jays are going to take a big hit offensively here as Rolen is not the powerful hitter that Glaus is. Taking that kind of power out of the lineup may hurt the Jays as they will have to rely on a lot of singles and doubles to score runs.

3. New York Yankees

I am ranking the Yanks as my third best team in the American League East with not much of a chance at making the playoffs. Their rotation is in shambles as it is yet another year older at the top. Their hitting is as good as the Tigers, but substantially older and thus likely to collapse. Unfortunately, I am expecting a major regression for the Yankees.

As I mentioned, the rotation is in shambles. While I am a huge fan of Phil Hughes, I honestly don’t see him as being much more then a third starter this year. With that in mind, I also see him as far and away the best starter the Yankees have this year and for Yankee fans who thought last year was tough going to their 12^th, 13^th and 14^th starters, 2008 will prove to be as painful. Neither Mussina nor Pettitte have what it takes to be a top of the rotation starter for 30+ starts and if the Yankees expect to compete, they are going to have to tap back into their farm system. I’m also not a fan of Wang, unless his new pitches are all that.

The bullpen will be strong with Chamberlain and Rivera, and Edwar Ramirez is a guy I really like-despite the fact that he is surprisingly old! But how much more can the Yankees expect LaTroy Hawkins or Kyle Farnsworth to have left? That said, the Yankees are going to have a lot of ‘white knuckle’ games as the rotation is not capable of going deep into games and the bullpen is not stocked with players to get the game into the 8^th for Chamberlain. Look out for Yankees fans to scream for bullpen help.

Offensively this team is stacked. One can make an argument that they still have a Hall of Famer at every position. The bench is relatively deep with extraordinarily flexible hitters. However, how much more does Giambi, Abreu, Matsui, Posada, Jeter and Damon have left? My assumption is that 2 or 3 of these players either suffers a major injury, or regresses beyond recognition. In fact, I also question what kind of attitude Alex Rodriguez will bring to the table now that he is no longer playing for an extension. The team will be alright, but don’t expect any one of the aforementioned seven to accomplish what they did in 2007.

Breakout Candidate: Edwar Ramirez – Despite the fact that he doesn’t really bring it, Edwar has an outstanding strikeout rate of 13.29 per 9 innings (good for the best strikeout rate among pitchers with at least 20 innings). If Edwar could find a way to more consistently be in the strike zone, there is no way he wouldn’t solidify the Yankees bullpen and make a Joba to starter move much easier to swallow.

Major Addition: NONE! They brought aboard ex-Astros Ensberg and Lane, but I would be shocked to see either one have more then 300 at bats this season.

Major Subtraction: Roger Clemens – While his stint with the Yanks was not as successful as he would have liked (or as the Yankees were paying him), he still pushes pitchers up the pecking order and takes away some of the team depth.

4. Boston Red Sox

While this may come as a huge slap in the face, the Red Sox scream ‘injury trouble’ to me from top to bottom. Even the areas where they appear safe the club has player’s who so overachieved that regression is actually too obvious of a conclusion. I feel as though too many things fell in place for the Red Sox that this season, everything is simply going to collapse. However, I am still expecting 80+ wins out of the club this season.

The rotation owns the #1 and #22 most abused pitchers from 2007 in Matsuzaka and Beckett respectively. Beckett already had a tendency of being brittle and is struggling to be healthy to this point in Spring Training and Matsuzaka is in an entirely new world in North American baseball. Whether or not Dice-Ks second half was a sign of things to come, or simply a small sample size and an aberration to the bigger picture is yet to be determined. But his walk rate and drop in strikeouts over the second half has got to be alarming for any fan of the Sox. The rotation will also count on a pair of youngsters in the place of Curt Schilling. While Schilling did not have the greatest season in 2007, it is tough to imagine a rookie performing better then he did at Fenway.

Hideki Okajima is not a quality relief pitcher. While many may argue with this assertion due to how Hideki performed in 2007, I am willing to go out and state that his numbers were directly related to a unique delivery which confused American League hitters for the first half of the season. David Aardsma is a guy that I anticipate will take over a meaningful role within the bullpen and be a name Red Sox Nation remembers.

The Red Sox hitters are efficient and play their required roles to perfection. The club though, is extremely thin and cannot afford an injury to anyone of its key players. I don’t imagine the Red Sox can go another season without suffering a major injury to either of their aging sluggers, Ortiz or Ramirez. As is, both Lugo and Drew are hurt and their backups are less than stellar. Outside of that, the youth and potential is far and few between.

Breakout Candidate: Manny Delcarmen – Everyone expects that it is only a matter of time before Jonathan Papelbon’s arm falls off. Delcarmen is the best choice and will be a major factor in the Sox bullpen longterm.

Major Addition: NONE! This roster is essentially the same one as 2007’s.

Major Subtraction: NONE! See above.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Just because I have the Orioles ranked as the fifth best team in the division, does not mean I do not like this team. The club finally has a direction and it is a fairly strong one. The minor league system is developing and the core of young players is impressive. The Tejada and Bedard trades have supplied the team with a surplus of arms and a future superstar. Moving Brian Roberts is next on the agenda and presumably is only a matter of time away.

The rotation is youthful and has a nice amount of potential. Watching the kids warm up and one would want this starting five over any one else’s. Jeremy Guthrie throws hard and he keeps it in the strike zone. I do not believe last year scratched the surface on the once top prospects potential. Additionally, how long is it before Daniel Cabrera figures things out? When he is on, good contact is nearly impossible to make. The problem is, he is rarely on and his time with the Orioles has to be running out. Cross your fingers Orioles fans. Watch out for Adam Loewen!

My boy Fernando Cabrera seems to have the Cabrera bug; outstanding stuff, terrible pitcher. Once upon a time, he had the biggest swing and miss ratio in the league. The rest of the bullpen is pieced together, some expensive parts, other youngsters with that p word. James Hoey is one of those guys with potential. After a spectacular minor league career, he has become extremely hittable and less capable of striking hitters out. In other words, this isn’t a terrible bullpen; rather, it’s one that is perfectly suited for a club like this.

Offensively the Orioles have all but given up for 2008. If and when Brian Roberts gets traded, this will be an outstanding team to match up with in fantasy leagues. There is hope for the future though. Between Nick Markakis and Adam Jones the Orioles have the highest potential outfield in the majors. Luke Scott should also turn some heads and allow people to realize that the Tejada trade was more then just a salary dump.

Breakout Candidate: Adam Loewen – I am confident the Orioles teach their minor leaguers to MISS the broadside of the barn. In fact, I would love to see some Pitch FX data to see exactly how far out of the zone Loewen works. That said, I expect the 24 year old to begin making strides towards stardom in 2008.

Major Addition: Adam Jones – PECOTA projects Jones to be nearly as good in 2008 as in 2014. He has all the tools in the world and the Mariners will regret trading him away as soon as the 2009 season. All that being said, Jones is already better then what the Orioles had in 2007, so that is a step in the right direction.

Major Subtraction: Not getting rid of Kevin Millar – There is no reason Millar is still with the club. There were ample options available in the free agent market, young hitters with decent potential.