The Rawlings Gold Glove awards are given to those who displayed the leagues most superior fielding, as voted on by managers and coaches-not the BBWAA as I previously mentioned. Each year there are snubs as well as votes given to players who are certainly not deserving of, and this year did not disappoint.
Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus was on ESPNews' The Hot List this afternoon, and asserted that often times players are given credit for what they did with their bat. In addition to this, according to Sheehan, is a 'viewed' award as much as it statistical. He did not claim this to be an entirely accurate perspective, rather, he suggested that the best defensive player may not win an award simply due to not doing anything flashy, or having fewer opportunities.
Here's who the managers and coaches gave their awards out to for the National League this season:
C - Yadier Molina
As I mentioned in the 'Shoulda' Awards, I'm not going to go through and judge a catcher. Molina seems like a fine choice to me.
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
This is bordering on criminal. Probably the biggest mistake of the National League Gold Glove award was not handing this one to Albert Pujols, but making this worse, and nearly discrediting the worth of the Gold Gloves altogether, was giving this to Adrian Gonzalez.
By all rights, Gonzalez should win this award. He is probably the most athletic first basemen in the National League. If not the most, then second behind Derek Lee. The Fielding Bible doesn't rank Gonzalez in the top 4, while The Hardball Times ranks Gonzalez as the 10th best fielding first basemen. This was clearly all about fielding percentage, where Gonzalez ranks as the best National League first basemen (tied).
2B - Brandon Phillips
While the voters got this one wrong, it isn't as bad as the Gonzalez vote. Phillips, while a fairly strong fielder, is still a little bit worse then Chase Utley. But Phillips, like Derek Jeter, finds his way onto highlight reels all of the time and is a flashy fielder.
3B - David Wright
I can understand giving this award to Wright. Ryan Zimmerman missing nearly half the season certainly put him at a disadvantage. Wright makes more flashy plays and is on a team that more people pay attention to. If I was picking the best defensive third basemen in the National League, either one would suffice.
I wonder how much of Wright winning this award is based on his reputation?
SS - Jimmy Rollins
The voters got this one correct. Good on them. The issue, however, is that the voters are probably going to keep giving this award to Rollins based on reputation.
Here is where the Gold Glove Award has another major flaw. Voters are told to group outfielders in a single cluster. This is clearly flawed, as an outfield with the three best center fielders would not obviously be superior then an outfield with the three best fielders at their respective positions. It is what it is, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.
ESPNews aligned the outfield winners as I will list.
RF - Shane Victorino
Victorino had a phenomenal season in center this year. It was specifically phenomenal considering it was his first shot at the position. Even if we simply list the three best outfielders, there is no way to rate him ahead of Chris Young. Unless of course we are considering a players contributions with their bat.
CF - Carlos Beltran
Similar to Phillips and Wright, I am fine with giving this award to Beltran. I do not believe he is the best candidate, but he's one of the top two or three, so it's close. Playing in a big market on a big stage, he is clearly going to be seen more frequently. He is also a veteran with a reputation as an excellent fielder. Having a great bat doesn't hurt in the voters eyes.
LF - Nate McLouth
Joe Sheehan believes this was more of an honorary award, one given to McLouth to reward him for having such an underrated season and making significant strides as a player. He deserves this award almost as much as Adrian Gonzalez deserves his. To again ignore Young is insulting.
P - Greg Maddux
The crime here is that this is still being called the National Leagues Gold Glove for a Pitcher. Why not just name it after Maddux?
As I mentioned, this is an award based on looks. While Maddux fields his position as well as anyone else, he also has the most opportunities to show off his glove to voters. No one is going to argue with this selection.
With only two glaring errors and borderline mistakes, the voters did not entirely ruin the credibility of the Gold Glove Award-although they did come close.
The American League Gold Gloves will be announced tomorrow at 4 PM EST.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
2008 National League 'Shoulda' Gold Gloves
The Baseball Writers of America Association traditionally botch giving out awards, none is more obvious then with the Gold Glove Awards. The BBWAA typically enjoy giving awards to fielders who are also strong hitters. In addition to that, the writers give credit to a player based on reputation and making highlight reel plays. While highlight reel plays are exciting to view, they are often the result of poor positioning, a weak arm, mediocre reaction, and/or a lack of speed. Every time Derek Jeter is in the air making an 'acrobatic' throw, imagine Jimmy Rollins making that same play, flat on his feet.
Another issue, is the use of a pointless statistic. Fielding Percentage is a subjective measure and is more a product of a players individual ability. That is, a ball that Chase Utley gets to may not be a ball that Luis Castillo can get to. Thus, if Utley gets to the ball but makes an errant throw, allowing a 'base hit', should he get punished for getting to the ball while Castillo watched the ball roll into the outfield?
Thus, I'm going to take a look at two of the most prominent defensive statistics that actually matter. Statistics which truly look at how a player fields.
The first statistic I will look at will be The Fielding Bibles plus/minus (+/-) measure. At the Fielding Bible, the authors watch every defensive play over the course of the year and figure out how many runs a player saves compared to league average. A rate of +10 would be the same as earning a win for The Hardball Times' win shares.
The second statistic I will look at will be The Hardball Times' revised zone rating (RZR). Here is THT's explanation of RZR,
Without further adieu, the 2008 'Shoulda' Gold Glove winners for the National League:
1B - Albert Pujols
Pujols rates as the #1 defensive first basemen by both RZR and +/-. This is an easy award to give away and furthers Pujols' legacy as one of the best baseball players of all time. The runner-up for this away is Lance Berkman who ranked just behind Joey Votto in +/-, but a fair distance ahead of him in RZR.
2B - Chase Utley
Utley more then doubles the next best second basemen in +/- , ranking just below the NL's runner-up Brandon Phillips. Utley is nearing the same echelon as Pujols as the total package, being both an elite hitter and an elite fielder. The big difference, most teams will allow their first basemen to be a mediocre fielder if he is an elite hitter. Whereas second base, the more difficult position to field, is expected to have a slick fielder, albeit with a weak bat.
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
The most difficult position to award to this point, Zimmerman rates as the 4th best third basemen according to THT's RZR, however he is the only one of THT's top 5 which made TFB's top 10. Zimmerman has always been considered a plus fielder but never given credit for such. Undergoing major surgery twice in the last year only increases how impressive of a fielder he is. The runner-up is the New York Mets David Wright.
SS - Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll rates as the National Leagues top +/- fielding short stop and number two in RZR. I imagine the BBWAA will get this right and take Rollins as he has a sound bat to compliment his slick fielding. Yunel Escobar is undervalued as a fielder, and if the Padres can find a taker for Khalil Greene, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to utilize Yunel as the center piece of a Jake Peavy trade.
LF - Matt Holliday
I am as shocked as the next person as I had always thought of Holliday as a terrible fielder. Holliday rates as the second best fielder among those who qualified in RZR and the third best fielder in +/-. The reason I am giving him the nod over Willie Harris and Connor Jackson is because of the major discrepancy in playing time. Harris is the runner-up but nearly wins the award due to making 45 out of zone (OOZ) plays in less then half the playing time of Holliday (Holliday made 50 OOZ plays).
CF - Chris Young
It is evident that Carlos Beltran has the best shot at winning this award, but Young actually rates out as the superior fielding when utilizing both statistics. Beltran leads Young by one point in +/- whereas Young leads Beltran by over 2% in RZR. A very close race and arguably a toss-up.
Cody Ross was arguably the best center fielder in the National League. That certainly comes as a surprise to me as Ross clearly looks out of position in cavernous Dolphin Stadium. What knocks him from the competition is his lack of OOZ plays and plays altogether.
RF - Randy Winn
Finishing first and second in RZR and +/- respectively has Winn at the top of the heap in the National League. It is a good thing that Winn is a solid fielder, as his bat is not overly impressive and would not be tolerated if he was below average. The runner-up goes to Brian Giles.
It is interesting to note that each of the outfielders mentioned here, come from poor hitters parks, parks that are traditionally knows for having large outfields. I am curious if these fielders are benefitting from either a fly ball friendly pitching staff, or by a more all-out style of play.
With the awards being given out later this afternoon, it will be interesting to see how much the BBWAA allow a subjective measure such as fielding percentage weigh into their respective decisions.
Another issue, is the use of a pointless statistic. Fielding Percentage is a subjective measure and is more a product of a players individual ability. That is, a ball that Chase Utley gets to may not be a ball that Luis Castillo can get to. Thus, if Utley gets to the ball but makes an errant throw, allowing a 'base hit', should he get punished for getting to the ball while Castillo watched the ball roll into the outfield?
Thus, I'm going to take a look at two of the most prominent defensive statistics that actually matter. Statistics which truly look at how a player fields.
The first statistic I will look at will be The Fielding Bibles plus/minus (+/-) measure. At the Fielding Bible, the authors watch every defensive play over the course of the year and figure out how many runs a player saves compared to league average. A rate of +10 would be the same as earning a win for The Hardball Times' win shares.
The second statistic I will look at will be The Hardball Times' revised zone rating (RZR). Here is THT's explanation of RZR,
Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out....To get a full picture of a player's range, you should evaluate both his Revised Zone Rating and his plays made out of zone (OOZ). You can read more about the Revised Zone Ratings in this article.These measure's will be weighted equally to come up with an unofficial list of who should win a Gold Glove-which is to be announced later this afternoon on ESPNews.
Without further adieu, the 2008 'Shoulda' Gold Glove winners for the National League:
1B - Albert Pujols
Pujols rates as the #1 defensive first basemen by both RZR and +/-. This is an easy award to give away and furthers Pujols' legacy as one of the best baseball players of all time. The runner-up for this away is Lance Berkman who ranked just behind Joey Votto in +/-, but a fair distance ahead of him in RZR.
2B - Chase Utley
Utley more then doubles the next best second basemen in +/- , ranking just below the NL's runner-up Brandon Phillips. Utley is nearing the same echelon as Pujols as the total package, being both an elite hitter and an elite fielder. The big difference, most teams will allow their first basemen to be a mediocre fielder if he is an elite hitter. Whereas second base, the more difficult position to field, is expected to have a slick fielder, albeit with a weak bat.
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
The most difficult position to award to this point, Zimmerman rates as the 4th best third basemen according to THT's RZR, however he is the only one of THT's top 5 which made TFB's top 10. Zimmerman has always been considered a plus fielder but never given credit for such. Undergoing major surgery twice in the last year only increases how impressive of a fielder he is. The runner-up is the New York Mets David Wright.
SS - Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll rates as the National Leagues top +/- fielding short stop and number two in RZR. I imagine the BBWAA will get this right and take Rollins as he has a sound bat to compliment his slick fielding. Yunel Escobar is undervalued as a fielder, and if the Padres can find a taker for Khalil Greene, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to utilize Yunel as the center piece of a Jake Peavy trade.
LF - Matt Holliday
I am as shocked as the next person as I had always thought of Holliday as a terrible fielder. Holliday rates as the second best fielder among those who qualified in RZR and the third best fielder in +/-. The reason I am giving him the nod over Willie Harris and Connor Jackson is because of the major discrepancy in playing time. Harris is the runner-up but nearly wins the award due to making 45 out of zone (OOZ) plays in less then half the playing time of Holliday (Holliday made 50 OOZ plays).
CF - Chris Young
It is evident that Carlos Beltran has the best shot at winning this award, but Young actually rates out as the superior fielding when utilizing both statistics. Beltran leads Young by one point in +/- whereas Young leads Beltran by over 2% in RZR. A very close race and arguably a toss-up.
Cody Ross was arguably the best center fielder in the National League. That certainly comes as a surprise to me as Ross clearly looks out of position in cavernous Dolphin Stadium. What knocks him from the competition is his lack of OOZ plays and plays altogether.
RF - Randy Winn
Finishing first and second in RZR and +/- respectively has Winn at the top of the heap in the National League. It is a good thing that Winn is a solid fielder, as his bat is not overly impressive and would not be tolerated if he was below average. The runner-up goes to Brian Giles.
It is interesting to note that each of the outfielders mentioned here, come from poor hitters parks, parks that are traditionally knows for having large outfields. I am curious if these fielders are benefitting from either a fly ball friendly pitching staff, or by a more all-out style of play.
With the awards being given out later this afternoon, it will be interesting to see how much the BBWAA allow a subjective measure such as fielding percentage weigh into their respective decisions.
I left out the catching and pitching positions because each has much to do with their respective teams. For example, a catcher may struggle with throwing out runners because his pitchers do not help with the running game, and vice versa. A catchers reputation also limits who runs, and when. One way to measure such, would be to look at a team's ERA while a specific catcher is behind the dish. This, however, could also be a result of being a 'personal catcher' to a really good pitcher.
In terms of a pitchers gold glove, there are certainly pitchers that are phenomenal with the mit, but a lack of playing time, as well as being of secondary concern to a pitcher is my rationale for omitting pitchers from this list. It would be like utilizing a pitchers hitting when awarding the National League Cy Young.Tuesday, November 4, 2008
2008 Award Postings
This entry will be the home of each of the 2008 Awards:
National League Gold Glove Awards Reflection
National League 'Shoulda' Gold Glove Awards
American League Gold Glove Awards Reflection
American League 'Shoulda' Gold Glove Awards
According to the BBWAA website, the remainder of the awards will be given out in the following order (dates in parenthesis).
The OLIB's American and National League Rookie of the Year Awards
American and National League Rookie of the Year (November 10)
The OLIB's National League Cy Young Award
National League Cy Young Award (November 11)
The OLIB's American and National League Manager of the Year Awards
American and National League Manager of the Year (November 12)
The OLIB's American League Cy Young Award
American League Cy Young Award (November 13)
The OLIB's National League Most Valuable Player Award
National League Most Valuable Player Award (November 17)
The OLIB's American League Most Valuable Player Award
American League Most Valuable Player Award (November 18)
I will be adding reflections when each of these awards are given out, as well as providing my awards. For now, here are the BDD Awards. Added rationale to follow.
BDD Rookie of the Year Award (AL & NL)
BDD Cy Young Award (AL & NL)
National League Gold Glove Awards Reflection
National League 'Shoulda' Gold Glove Awards
American League Gold Glove Awards Reflection
American League 'Shoulda' Gold Glove Awards
According to the BBWAA website, the remainder of the awards will be given out in the following order (dates in parenthesis).
The OLIB's American and National League Rookie of the Year Awards
American and National League Rookie of the Year (November 10)
The OLIB's National League Cy Young Award
National League Cy Young Award (November 11)
The OLIB's American and National League Manager of the Year Awards
American and National League Manager of the Year (November 12)
The OLIB's American League Cy Young Award
American League Cy Young Award (November 13)
The OLIB's National League Most Valuable Player Award
National League Most Valuable Player Award (November 17)
The OLIB's American League Most Valuable Player Award
American League Most Valuable Player Award (November 18)
I will be adding reflections when each of these awards are given out, as well as providing my awards. For now, here are the BDD Awards. Added rationale to follow.
BDD Rookie of the Year Award (AL & NL)
BDD Cy Young Award (AL & NL)
Under the Radar - Jayson Nix
On Monday (but officially reported on Thursday), the Chicago White Sox signed ex-Colorado Rockies second basemen Jayson Nix to a one year minor league contract. While last week officially kicked off the offseason, the value moves figure to take some time before they begin rolling in.
This, however, is not the case with the Jayson Nix signing.
Nix, a 26 year old second basemen, has went from being a highly regarded prospect, to a non-factor, back to a 'keep an eye on' candidate. While playing in Colorado's system, Nix has shown a fair amount of pop in his bat, coupled with decent speed and base stealing abilities.
What Nix is best known for, however, is his glove. Rewinding back to early in the 2008 year, Kevin Goldstein asserted that Nix had won the second base job with his glove. His fielding was so good, that as a full time second basemen, Goldstein figured Nix to be one of the top fielders in the game.
Goldstein concludes that Nix is a "superb" fielder, with great hands, and quick enough to get to a lot of balls in the hole.
Looking back at Nix's prospect card, where he rated as a 2 star prospect, we see that he is given praise for having 'plus speed' and 'gap power' as his main hitting tools. While these tools would obviously be better suited in the National League and at Coors Field, US Cellular Field is one of the next best locations for Nix to rejuvenate his career.
What is it that makes this move so special that it is worthy of being written about? Let us consider the free agent market for second basemen (courtesy MLBTradeRumors):
Of the two players still in the prime years of their career, neither are substantially superior with the bat then Nix.
Next, let us look at the fielding abilities of the players available. According to The Fielding Bible, Jeff Kent, Ray Durham, Felipe Lopez, and David Eckstein were among the worst fielders in all of Major League Baseball during the 2008 season. Despite being better hitters, the cost, plus iron gloves, will certainly balance out the values, even favoring Nix.
Lastly, the offensive output that each player can be expected to provide. While it will take a major step forward for Nix to become a force with his bat, it is reasonable to assume league average production. That said, how many players from the list of free agents can we knock off that will be substantially worse then league average? Luis Rivas, Nick Punto, Ramon Martinez, Pablo Ozuna, Tadahito Iguchi, Damion Easley, Craig Counsell, and Willie Bloomquist can all be knocked off the list. Not one of these players can be counted on for an OPS above .650, let alone cracking .700.
From a list of 16, we have knocked off 12 players. Which means there is an argument suggesting that Nix was one of the top 5 available free agent second basemen. Under the Radar, however, is first and foremost concerned with value. Value is not only concerned with what a player will provide for a specific franchise in terms of wins and losses, but also cost.
Let's take a look at how Nix's one year, minor league contract looks compared to what the estimated contracts of the remaining players will look like.
Orlando Hudson is the most intriguing player from this list, mostly because of his glove. However, Hudson will presumably cost a multi-year deal of at least $5M per season. With Mark Ellis off of the market, Hudson is actually the best all around second basemen. After earning $6.25M in 2008, it is unlikely that the best available second basemen takes a paycut.
The next most intriguing player that remains is Mark Grudzielanek. Grudzielanek is a fine defensive second basemen, and has been receiving an under market contract from the Royals recently. While he is unlikely to resign with the Royals, he is also unlikely to find another starting job simply due to his age and the fact that he is coming off of an injury plagued season.
The second available Mark, Mark Loretta. Loretta is a poor-man's Grudzielanek who has cashed in from two surprising seasons in San Diego. He is a lock to hit for league average numbers, but doesn't have the glove of Nix, Hudson, or Grudzielanek. Loretta is a nice player to have, but like Grudzielanek, is at a point in his career that he cannot be depended on to be an everyday player.
Jerry Hairston Jr chose the perfect year to drop in career high statistics. While Hairston has always had the tools to be a capable Major Leaguer, for one reason or another he has been perpetually misfortunate. Hairston's career BABIP is 50 points lower then his expected figure of .338. For a player with his speed, and a better then league average strikeout to walk ratio, one would think Hairston would be a more highly coveted free agent.
The problem is, Hairston has failed to stay healthy, and is a fairly weak fielder. His role is better served as a utility player that can fill any role on a given night, but isn't forced into full time action.
While Hudson is the only player who will conceivably be a superior everyday second basemen, his cost and commitment make him less valuable then Nix. Loretta, Grudzielanek, and Hairston would be superior acquisitions if a team could depend on each player for full tiem roles. But at their age, or with their specific flaws, not one of those players can be counted on for more then 100 games.
At age 26, Jayson Nix is in the perfect situation. He is being brough aboard for his glove. The Chicago White Sox are a tremendous offensive team, and will consider anything Nix adds with his bat as a bonus. In addition to this, White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams picked up a player that is young enough to develope into any everyday second basemen for the next 3 to 4 seasons.
That the cost for Nix is so little, while the reward has such a high ceiling, coupled with the poor class of free agent second basemen, Kenny Williams may have just nabbed himself the most valuable free agent of the Hot Stove League.
This, however, is not the case with the Jayson Nix signing.
Nix, a 26 year old second basemen, has went from being a highly regarded prospect, to a non-factor, back to a 'keep an eye on' candidate. While playing in Colorado's system, Nix has shown a fair amount of pop in his bat, coupled with decent speed and base stealing abilities.
What Nix is best known for, however, is his glove. Rewinding back to early in the 2008 year, Kevin Goldstein asserted that Nix had won the second base job with his glove. His fielding was so good, that as a full time second basemen, Goldstein figured Nix to be one of the top fielders in the game.
Goldstein concludes that Nix is a "superb" fielder, with great hands, and quick enough to get to a lot of balls in the hole.
Looking back at Nix's prospect card, where he rated as a 2 star prospect, we see that he is given praise for having 'plus speed' and 'gap power' as his main hitting tools. While these tools would obviously be better suited in the National League and at Coors Field, US Cellular Field is one of the next best locations for Nix to rejuvenate his career.
What is it that makes this move so special that it is worthy of being written about? Let us consider the free agent market for second basemen (courtesy MLBTradeRumors):
- Willie Bloomquist (31)
- Craig Counsell (38)
- Ray Durham (37)
- Damion Easley (39)
- David Eckstein (34)
- Mark Grudzielanek (39) - Type B
- Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)
- Orlando Hudson (31) - Type A
- Tadahito Iguchi (34)
- Jeff Kent (41) - Type B
- Felipe Lopez (29)
- Mark Loretta (37) - Type B
- Ramon Martinez (36)
- Pablo Ozuna (34)
- Nick Punto (31)
- Luis Rivas (29)
Of the two players still in the prime years of their career, neither are substantially superior with the bat then Nix.
Next, let us look at the fielding abilities of the players available. According to The Fielding Bible, Jeff Kent, Ray Durham, Felipe Lopez, and David Eckstein were among the worst fielders in all of Major League Baseball during the 2008 season. Despite being better hitters, the cost, plus iron gloves, will certainly balance out the values, even favoring Nix.
Lastly, the offensive output that each player can be expected to provide. While it will take a major step forward for Nix to become a force with his bat, it is reasonable to assume league average production. That said, how many players from the list of free agents can we knock off that will be substantially worse then league average? Luis Rivas, Nick Punto, Ramon Martinez, Pablo Ozuna, Tadahito Iguchi, Damion Easley, Craig Counsell, and Willie Bloomquist can all be knocked off the list. Not one of these players can be counted on for an OPS above .650, let alone cracking .700.
From a list of 16, we have knocked off 12 players. Which means there is an argument suggesting that Nix was one of the top 5 available free agent second basemen. Under the Radar, however, is first and foremost concerned with value. Value is not only concerned with what a player will provide for a specific franchise in terms of wins and losses, but also cost.
Let's take a look at how Nix's one year, minor league contract looks compared to what the estimated contracts of the remaining players will look like.
Orlando Hudson is the most intriguing player from this list, mostly because of his glove. However, Hudson will presumably cost a multi-year deal of at least $5M per season. With Mark Ellis off of the market, Hudson is actually the best all around second basemen. After earning $6.25M in 2008, it is unlikely that the best available second basemen takes a paycut.
The next most intriguing player that remains is Mark Grudzielanek. Grudzielanek is a fine defensive second basemen, and has been receiving an under market contract from the Royals recently. While he is unlikely to resign with the Royals, he is also unlikely to find another starting job simply due to his age and the fact that he is coming off of an injury plagued season.
The second available Mark, Mark Loretta. Loretta is a poor-man's Grudzielanek who has cashed in from two surprising seasons in San Diego. He is a lock to hit for league average numbers, but doesn't have the glove of Nix, Hudson, or Grudzielanek. Loretta is a nice player to have, but like Grudzielanek, is at a point in his career that he cannot be depended on to be an everyday player.
Jerry Hairston Jr chose the perfect year to drop in career high statistics. While Hairston has always had the tools to be a capable Major Leaguer, for one reason or another he has been perpetually misfortunate. Hairston's career BABIP is 50 points lower then his expected figure of .338. For a player with his speed, and a better then league average strikeout to walk ratio, one would think Hairston would be a more highly coveted free agent.
The problem is, Hairston has failed to stay healthy, and is a fairly weak fielder. His role is better served as a utility player that can fill any role on a given night, but isn't forced into full time action.
While Hudson is the only player who will conceivably be a superior everyday second basemen, his cost and commitment make him less valuable then Nix. Loretta, Grudzielanek, and Hairston would be superior acquisitions if a team could depend on each player for full tiem roles. But at their age, or with their specific flaws, not one of those players can be counted on for more then 100 games.
At age 26, Jayson Nix is in the perfect situation. He is being brough aboard for his glove. The Chicago White Sox are a tremendous offensive team, and will consider anything Nix adds with his bat as a bonus. In addition to this, White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams picked up a player that is young enough to develope into any everyday second basemen for the next 3 to 4 seasons.
That the cost for Nix is so little, while the reward has such a high ceiling, coupled with the poor class of free agent second basemen, Kenny Williams may have just nabbed himself the most valuable free agent of the Hot Stove League.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Election and a Response
Tomorrow is an election day, and while this blog has nothing to do with politics (at least directly), I do feel the need to share an outstandingly humorous clip from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. After all, if it's not one politician, it's another:
Baseball Musings, run by David Pinto, is one of baseball's best online sites. He has what feels like hourly posts updating his readers of the ongoings of baseball. His analysis is consistently strong and he has an outstanding database and tools for his readers to utilize. In other words, Pinto runs a site that I could only dream mine turns into.
A recent post has Pinto questioning if the Athletics selectivity is a hindrance to their hitters. He recalls the Moneyball philosophy where hitters were rewarded for not going after tough pitches, even if it meant striking out looking, and being punished for going after bad pitches, even if it had a positive result. Teaching 'good process' is ideal at low levels of baseball, but as Pinto points out, can be a negative at the Major League level.
However, there is somewhat of a flaw in Pinto's argument. Pinto creates the following table:
While the table does tell a story, it misses on some key factors. The first, and most important, batting average, even slugging percentage, are secondary to on base average in terms of creating a winning ballclub. However, an on base average of under .310 from a team's infield is not going to win anything anytime soon.
The next key factor is the reliability of batting average. According to Baseball Prospectus' "Baseball Between the Numbers-Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong", batting average has the least season to season reliability of any offensive measure (isolate power, walk rate, strikeout rate, and stolen base). Thus, when we see a hitter with a .330 batting average one season, there is typically a reason to look into that number.
The same can be said when a hitter is so far below Major League average, we can simply ask 'why'. Oftentimes, the answer is noted within a comparison of the players Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) and their expected BABIP (xBABIP). A players xBABIP is simply calculated by taking the players line drive rate, placing it into decimal form, and adding .11. While this is not an open and shut calculation, for arguments sake, it will suffice.
Let's now look at the aforementioned quad of Ellis, Cust, Barton, and Hannahan.
Mark Ellis had a rough 2008 season. While much of this can be blamed on a lingering injury (something that has consistently nagged Ellis throughout his career), we can also see that he fell victim to some poor luck. Ellis' 2008 line drive rate of 20.1% is only marginally higher then his career average. One can assume this is a sustainable rate for season to season, and subsequently a viable figure to utilize when calculating xBABIP.
With a BABIP of .249, Ellis fell more then 50 points below his xBABIP of .311. Ellis' expected batting average is then .285, a 50+ point jump from where he finished in 2008. How many secondbasemen with a .374 on base average are there? Answer: 5.
Jack Cust is a special case as his strikeouts will keep his batting average down, no matter how high his line drive rate is. That said, Cust's xBABIP was only 8 points higher then his actual BABIP, hardly worth calculating. However, there is very little to complain about a hitter that gets on base over 37% of the time while providing a .245 ISO.
Interestingly, Cust's outstanding home run rate of 29.7% was actually a dip from his 2007 total of 31.7%. That's an extra couple of points in a players batting and on base averages.
One of the biggest outliers from this list is Daric Barton, one of my favorite young players and a hitter who was underperforming his expected statistics by a large margin all season. As a rookie, Barton has a built in reason for underperforming. The season started off miserably for Barton, as he appeared overmatched, struggling to provide a league average strikeout rate. However, as the season grew on, Barton's strong plate discipline eventually resulted in fewer strikeouts.
Also in this mess was Barton under performing his xBABIP by just over 30 points. This deviation resulted in Barton's batting average falling 23 points under his expected figure. When one considers that much of Barton's struggles can be tied in with a strikeout rate that dropped 10% from the first half (26%) to the second half (16%) and that his home run per fly ball rate was well under league average and expected rates, it is clear that Barton was a victim to poor luck and being a rookie.
However, even a .250/.350 line from Barton in 2008 would have put him around projected levels and at the American League average for first basemen. Not terrible for a rookie.
Similar to Barton, Jack Hannahan's BABIP fell over 30 points below his xBABIP. Simply achieving his xBABIP would have seen both his batting and on base averages approach league average. For a player that is more utility/quadruple A, league average production is just fine.
While Pinto does bring up a valid point that the A's may be preaching over-selectivity, it certainly does not appear to be hurting them to the degree he asserts. I would expect the aforementioned players to approach, if not exceed, their expected values for the 2009 season.
Baseball Musings, run by David Pinto, is one of baseball's best online sites. He has what feels like hourly posts updating his readers of the ongoings of baseball. His analysis is consistently strong and he has an outstanding database and tools for his readers to utilize. In other words, Pinto runs a site that I could only dream mine turns into.
A recent post has Pinto questioning if the Athletics selectivity is a hindrance to their hitters. He recalls the Moneyball philosophy where hitters were rewarded for not going after tough pitches, even if it meant striking out looking, and being punished for going after bad pitches, even if it had a positive result. Teaching 'good process' is ideal at low levels of baseball, but as Pinto points out, can be a negative at the Major League level.
However, there is somewhat of a flaw in Pinto's argument. Pinto creates the following table:
| 2008 | Batting Avg. | On-Base Avg. |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Ellis | .233 | .321 |
| Jack Cust | .231 | .375 |
| Daric Barton | .226 | .327 |
| Jack Hannahan | .218 | .305 |
While the table does tell a story, it misses on some key factors. The first, and most important, batting average, even slugging percentage, are secondary to on base average in terms of creating a winning ballclub. However, an on base average of under .310 from a team's infield is not going to win anything anytime soon.
The next key factor is the reliability of batting average. According to Baseball Prospectus' "Baseball Between the Numbers-Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong", batting average has the least season to season reliability of any offensive measure (isolate power, walk rate, strikeout rate, and stolen base). Thus, when we see a hitter with a .330 batting average one season, there is typically a reason to look into that number.
The same can be said when a hitter is so far below Major League average, we can simply ask 'why'. Oftentimes, the answer is noted within a comparison of the players Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) and their expected BABIP (xBABIP). A players xBABIP is simply calculated by taking the players line drive rate, placing it into decimal form, and adding .11. While this is not an open and shut calculation, for arguments sake, it will suffice.
Let's now look at the aforementioned quad of Ellis, Cust, Barton, and Hannahan.
Mark Ellis had a rough 2008 season. While much of this can be blamed on a lingering injury (something that has consistently nagged Ellis throughout his career), we can also see that he fell victim to some poor luck. Ellis' 2008 line drive rate of 20.1% is only marginally higher then his career average. One can assume this is a sustainable rate for season to season, and subsequently a viable figure to utilize when calculating xBABIP.
With a BABIP of .249, Ellis fell more then 50 points below his xBABIP of .311. Ellis' expected batting average is then .285, a 50+ point jump from where he finished in 2008. How many secondbasemen with a .374 on base average are there? Answer: 5.
Jack Cust is a special case as his strikeouts will keep his batting average down, no matter how high his line drive rate is. That said, Cust's xBABIP was only 8 points higher then his actual BABIP, hardly worth calculating. However, there is very little to complain about a hitter that gets on base over 37% of the time while providing a .245 ISO.
Interestingly, Cust's outstanding home run rate of 29.7% was actually a dip from his 2007 total of 31.7%. That's an extra couple of points in a players batting and on base averages.
One of the biggest outliers from this list is Daric Barton, one of my favorite young players and a hitter who was underperforming his expected statistics by a large margin all season. As a rookie, Barton has a built in reason for underperforming. The season started off miserably for Barton, as he appeared overmatched, struggling to provide a league average strikeout rate. However, as the season grew on, Barton's strong plate discipline eventually resulted in fewer strikeouts.
Also in this mess was Barton under performing his xBABIP by just over 30 points. This deviation resulted in Barton's batting average falling 23 points under his expected figure. When one considers that much of Barton's struggles can be tied in with a strikeout rate that dropped 10% from the first half (26%) to the second half (16%) and that his home run per fly ball rate was well under league average and expected rates, it is clear that Barton was a victim to poor luck and being a rookie.
However, even a .250/.350 line from Barton in 2008 would have put him around projected levels and at the American League average for first basemen. Not terrible for a rookie.
Similar to Barton, Jack Hannahan's BABIP fell over 30 points below his xBABIP. Simply achieving his xBABIP would have seen both his batting and on base averages approach league average. For a player that is more utility/quadruple A, league average production is just fine.
While Pinto does bring up a valid point that the A's may be preaching over-selectivity, it certainly does not appear to be hurting them to the degree he asserts. I would expect the aforementioned players to approach, if not exceed, their expected values for the 2009 season.
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