Link of the Day (For the Week of April 27 - May 3)

I'm going to start a new series where I pick the most interesting article I read in a week and briefly write about it. I will, however, suggest that this is more of an 'article of the day' then an 'article of the week' situation, as I feel as though calling one of the hundred or so baseball articles I read in any given week as the best is simply wrong. So this will be more of an article that stands out, something I think everyone needs to read. I will also attempt to switch it up, avoiding the same author on multiple occasions.

This weeks article jumped out to me this afternoon at school, as I was sifting through my inbox. Fellow Baseball Digest Daily author Bill Chuck's email from Billy-Ball.com (I suggest joining this mailing list, very entertaining stuff) entitled The Feel Good Story of 2008. You can check out the full article here.

Bill Chuck outlines what the feel good story to date is, which is obviously the classy move made by the Red Sox brass to bring Bill Buckner to Fenway for the Sox real Opening Day. Buckner, as Chuck writes, "was greeted with love and forgiveness by fans who had unfairly vilified him since 1986."

Chuck however, feels as though there will be an even greater feel good story soon, and that is of Ken Griffey Jr.'s return to Seattle. Bill Chuck suggests that the Reds should make a move to get rid of Jr due to his high contract and the Reds need to move forward, taking advantage of their young core. Chuck writes, "Even though he’s the team's marquee player and its biggest gate attraction, the team can justify this deal, but only this deal for Griffey."

Similarly, Chuck suggests that the Mariners are an ideal location for Griffey, writing,

Let’s look first at the Mariners. The team is floundering in the bottom third in runs. They have the fourth lowest batting average. They exceed only Kansas City and Minnesota in On Base Percentage. Their DH, Jose Vidro is hitting .195. The M’s are just under .500 but the division is weak, there is plenty of time to make up the games they trail the A’s and Angels.

A very compelling argument. But do the Mariners have the tools to pull it off? Additionally, do the Reds want something the Mariners could offer? I imagine the Reds would have been glad to take on Chris Tillman for Jr, however Tillman is now part of the Orioles organization after this trade.

Taking a look at the Mariners top prospects (according to Minor League Ball's John Sickels) Jeff Clement, Carlos Triunfel and Wladimir Balentien remain with the organization. Clement would be especially attractive to the Reds, considering their current catcher situation and the lack of depth coming through the system, the one catcher the team does have, is probably 5 years from being ready. If you would have asked me a week ago, I would have said 'no way' on Clement, but given that the Mariners have recently signed Kenji Johjima a 3 year extension, the club could spare Clement and use him as a trade chip.

Wladimir Balentien could also be an interesting piece for the Reds, as the team is on the verge of losing both Jr and Adam Dunn. Balentien could step into the spot of either player and provide similar power at a substantially cheaper cost. The Mariners seemed to be willing to shop him during the past off season, and they do not seem too willing to give him a shot with the big league club.

The Reds system obviously boasts some impressive talent, with Jay Bruce leading the charge and Joey Votto already up with the club. Clement would obviously be ideal, but I doubt that the Mariners would trade Clement and take on the entire remainder of Jr's salary. That said, receiving Balentien, and Juan Ramirez while the M's take on the entirety of Griffey's salary is a best case scenario in my opinion.

Think back to the Abreu to the Yankees trade of a few years back. John Beamer of The Hardball Times wrote a piece reflecting on that trade and how it was clearly a salary dump. I think Reds fans would take the loss of Griffey a lot harder then Phils fans did with Abreu, so getting something in return is important.

Overall, I do agree with Bill Chuck and I definitely see a match within the organizations. I think the Mariners fan base would appreciate the addition and the Reds fan base would be fine, as long as they received a major league contributor and a nice prospect. It is interesting to note, a few months back, the Reds had a surplus of outfielders and did not know where they were going to find at bats for all of them. Now Jerry Hairston Jr is getting at bats.


I do, however disagree with Bill Chuck that a return to Seattle for Griffey Jr would be the feel good story of the year. Really, no matter what else happens this season, if (and when) Doug Davis gets back on the bump, that will undeniably be the story of the year. I have intentionally refrained from talking about that subject, as many have beat it to the ground and this is such a tough time in Davis' life, but there is no way that won't be the feel good story of the year.

Adam Miller Watch - April 28, 2008

After a successful return to the Hill for the 2008 season, Adam Miller will look to build off of what should have been a nice win. Without the errors and a little bit better fielding, I believe Miller would have made it through 6 innings without issue.

Let's take a walk through Adam's first start of the season using MiLB's Gameday.

Miller went 5 innings sticking to around the pitch count that Torey Lovullo suggested he would be at. Although I imagine had things went a little bit better for Miller, in terms of luck, he would have went on for a another 5 to 10 pitches. And as I mentioned, should have been able to make it through 6 innings, it not more.

The MiLB Gameday is not as detailed as MLB's, however it does give us a good impression of what the hitters were seeing and how the pitcher either tricked the hitters or was very predictable.

In the 1st inning, Adam Miller struck out Brett Gardner, the first hitter he faced in the season on a 4th pitch swinging strike. It was a pitch that was on the outside edge of the plate. The second batter Miller faced was Bernie Castro who walked on seven pitches, then moved to second on a passed ball. Castro fouled off three pitches as Miller worked mostly on the outside edge of the plate. Juan Miranda moved Castro from 2nd to 3rd as he grounds out in what would have been an inning ending double play (according to the Buffalo radio announcers). During this at bat Miller missed outside with his first two pitches, followed by a swinging strike inside. He hit his spot with pitch four on a called strike and and on pitch number five he left it over the plate a little bit where Miranda hit the ball to first. Shelly Duncan then managed to single in Castro looping an Adam Miller slider down the left field line. Miller was actually lucky to only allow a single as the slider went right down the middle of the plate. Miller was able to get out of the inning without allowing an earned run when Jason Lane grounded out to first; this, after he swung and missed on two fastballs. The first of which was out of the zone. Not a bad first inning, 2 strikeouts, a walk, a hit and an unearned run.

For the 2nd inning, Miller was working with a nice lead and seemed to be pitching, instead of throwing. While he still had issues hitting the outside edge of the plate, he did enough to get through the inning in order on only 10 pitches (7 strikes), zero of which were called strikes or swinging strikes. First basemen Eric Duncan was the first to the plate and Miller followed the scouting report keeping the ball away. Duncan ended up pulling the forth pitch he saw to second base for an easy ground out. Journeyman Nick Green was next to the plate and Miller made quick work of him, keeping the ball outside and getting a fly out to the opposite way in right field. Miller cannot be happy with his pitch selection against Greg Porter, however he did get him to ground out to short on 4 pitches (2 in the zone fouls).

Miller entered the 3rd inning with yet another run, but was not as sharp as he was in the second, allowing a hit and a walk. 32 pitches into his first start seems a little early to struggle, but since Miller made it out of the inning fine, it is nothing to worry about. Catcher Chris Stewart got onto first with a line drive up the middle. Stewart also took two called strikes, which were pitches that were low and in the zone, I'm guessing one of the two was Miller's signature slide piece. Brett Gardner saw four pitches, each of which were outside. Pitch one and two were perfectly placed pitches with pitch three being an obvious 'chase' pitch. Miller then missed his spot a little, but Gardner flew out to left center. Castro then worked a seven pitch at bat for a walk, he took pitch two and three for called strikes on the outside, probably a good idea given the pitch location. Pitch five and seven look to be very close pitches, low and right down the middle. With two on and one out, Miller faced his biggest test to date (image left). A nine pitch at bat which involved two swinging strikes and two pitches down the middle that were fouled off. Miller got by on his stuff during this battle, good to see from a guy coming back from an injury. Miller continued to show his ability to pitch, working both the inside and outside of the plate. It still appears as if he is struggling with location, but getting Duncan to ground out on six pitches (with an in the zone swinging strike) ended the inning.

A 32 pitch inning put Miller at 64 entering the forth inning, in what I would have expected to be a rough one given the quick fashion the Bisons went down in for their half of the inning. However, a three pitch at bat to Lane with a perfectly place inside strike two. Eric Duncan sat down after four pitches and a pop up to third base. Miller tried to go high-low during this pitch sequence (image right). Miller again made quick work of Nick Green getting him to ground out to third on two pitches, an in the zone foul and an away pulled ground out.

Miller entered the 5th inning with 73 pitches thrown, 45 being for strikes. A nice ratio, but nothing spectacular given all of the foul balls that were hit. For this inning, the Yankees did the exact opposite of what I would have suggested to do to a pitcher approaching his pitch count in his first start back, they were aggressive. Porter put a ball in play after two pitches, both pitches in the zone on the outside edge. Stewart reached on an error by Miller, who was trying to throw out Porter at second in what would have been a double play. Gardner fouled off two pitches outside and the third one he popped out to left field. In what should have been the last out of the inning, or even an inning ending double play, Castro moved the Porter to third while sacrificing Stewart at second. Another quick two pitch at bat, where Miller worked away for a called strike, then missing a little and coming a little over the plate. In essentially the same pitch as the one Castro hit to third, Miller missed in what Miranda lined for a double which scored two, bringing the Bison lead down to one and forcing pitching coach Scott Radinski to the mound. Leaving Miller in provided to be the right choice as he got Duncan to ground out to short stop ending the threat on two pitches.

Overall, a nice debut for Miller where he threw 65% of his pitches for strikes. Miller owned an adequate ground out ratio of 47%. As I mentioned, with proper fielding, Miller should have made it through at least 6 innings, which would have allowed the Bisons to enter the 7th inning with a 4 run lead. Instead the club was only leading by a single run.

Miller will go tonight, again facing the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees. Pitching at home for the first time this season and against the same team in five days will be the least of Miller's obstacles, as he needs to prove he is healthy and ready to be a factor with the Indians this season. If his first start was any indication of things to come, I must admit I was wrong about the kid. Here's to hoping!


I was intending on heading to the game this evening, however I have other obligations to take care of (namely school work that I have procrastinated on up until now that is due in the next two days). I will, however, be listening to the game on the radio and will provide updates as I see fit. I hope you are enjoying this series as much as I am.

Update - 04/28/08 - 6:10 PM EST
Yes, I bought MiLB.TV for the next month. Off to a shaky start, Adam Miller got out of a bases loaded, two out jam with a called strike. It appeared to be a two seam fastball that moved away from the hitter.

The thing that stands out the most from watching this outing so far, is that Miller does not seem to be fooling the hitters. A couple first pitch called strikes, and a few late fouls, but nothing where the hitters seemed absolutely fooled.

It is of note, however, that Miller would not have gotten into the jam he did had he had Major League fielding behind him. A sharp ground ball by Bernie Castro to Andy Gonzalez would have been a close, but easy play at first. Instead, the ball squeaked by and Miller was charged with a hit allowed.

Update - 04/28/08 - 6:35 PM EST
The second inning is going quite a bit better as Miller has gotten his velocity up and there has been noticeable movement on all of his pitches.

Jason Brown singled a weakly hit ball to second base that probably would have been an out for major league fielding.

Brett Gardner then followed with a sharply hit ball up the middle. Miller looked excellent during this sequence which led to the Bernie Castro at bat where Miller struck him out looking on an outstanding slide piece.

Update - 04/28/08 - 6:45 PM EST
I have big expectations for Miller this inning. I feel like he is starting to really get a feel for his stuff. I would like to hear that he is getting even more velocity on his fastball, but that may be unreasonable considering the weather conditions in Buffalo tonight.

First pitch, fastball strike, low and outside. Great start. Nick Green flied out in what the color commentator referred to as a 'great cut'.

Miller battled back against Miranda. He missed badly on the first three pitches and didn't look good on the delivery in any one of them. This at bat included a swinging strike and a couple fouled off balls. He's looking good, but not great, yet.

Jason Lane is up now and got up 2-0 on two terrible pitches. Miller returned with two outstanding pitches which made Jason Lane look like the AAAA player he is. A fly out to center ended the at bat.

Eric Duncan was the victim of Miller's second wild pitch of the inning. But being behind 1 and 2 in the count puts this kid at a major disadvantage. After a foul ball, Duncan dribbled one up the middle for an easy put out by Bisons shortstop Danny Sandoval.

Update - 04/28/08 - 7:18 PM EST
The Bisons got a two run home run from Ben Francisco, which should help Miller on the bump.

The network was joined by manager Torey Lovullo who raised concern about a lack of strikes, but is impressed with Miller's ability to get key outs when his back is against the wall. Sitting with 78 pitches in 3 innings, it is going to be tough for Miller to be the pitcher of record for the Bisons at this point.

Miller starts off the inning with a strikeout, getting Ransom to swing at a strike out of the zone for strike two and then foul tip strikeout a beautiful fastball low and away.

Gregory Porter volunteers to make things easy on Miller, swing at the first pitch and popping up to center field.

Miller is now making Jason Brown look foolish. Three pitches and three strikes. This is the third of four innings that Miller has finished off the Yankees with a strikeout. It looks like the kid should take the bump at least one more time.

Update - 04/28/08 - 7:25 PM EST
Bubbie Buzachero is warming up in the bullpen for the second time this game. It seems as if he'll take over for Miller in the 5th inning ending the kids game and giving him 9 straight scoreless innings.

Fantasy Generals Speculator Part Six - Hughes v. Kennedy

After a week off, the Generals are jazzed for another Speculator. This week we weigh the merits of Kennedy v. Hughes. I find it interesting that people have jumped off the Hughes bandwagon with such force. While reports are that his velocity is somewhat down this season, consider that Kennedy's velocity is always down. Furthermore, playing in front of this Yankees defensive lineup, without a true plus pitch will prove costing for Kennedy more often then not.

Here is what I wrote:

Brandon Heikoop–They are Yankees and I often dismiss Yanks at the draft that are overvalued. Consider all the Yankee fans out there that can’t see past the fact that Mike Mussina is a terrible starting pitcher?

However, that is not the question. The question asks if there is any hope for Hughes or Kennedy. Personally, I was never sold on Kennedy. His minor league numbers, while impressive, are vastly skewed due to small sample sizes and incredible luck! Any minor league pitcher who has a BABIP below .300 with average stuff is that much luckier. Kennedy does not have electric stuff. His best pitch is a changeup, but with a less then stellar fastball and an average 3^rd offering, Kennedy will struggle once hitters begin to key in on his change. I will borrow a quote from Kevin Goldstein here when he says, “Kennedy is pretty much the poster child for the kind of player who can put up ridiculous numbers in the minor leagues, but when it comes to the majors, he’s not as good.”

As for Hughes, I’m still high on him. I am absolutely enamored with his stuff. I also think people are forgetting that Hughes was on his way to a no-hitter before pulling up lame. Unlike Kennedy, Hughes does have electric stuff. He also has the typical, projectable body of an upper tier pitcher. In almost every league I am struggling between trying to trade for Hughes and hoping for one last bad start where his owners will jump ship. However, if that bad start is a solid to great one, what will his price jump up to?

In conclusion, Hughes is the guy for me, without any question about it. He is going to be a top of the rotation ace while Kennedy, valuable in his own right, will settle in at the end of the rotation.

Further explanation by Goldstein is as follows,

So now, before we go projecting stardom, let’s do a quick exercise based on what we know. Close your eyes, and try to think of every starting pitcher in the big leagues. Now think of every good right-hander who is six-foot or under and sits in the upper 80s. Done with your list? It’s not a long one, is it? In fact, it’s probably at zero, unless you count guys like Maddux who actually did sit consistently in the low 90s during his peak years.

Unfortunately, I like to play the odds. I don't see Kennedy becoming an ace in New York. Because of this, I have a tough time seeing him sticking in the big apple as the expectations for him by Yankee fans are inherently high.

Check out what the other Generals have to say at the Speculator.

Take a Chance on Me - Week 5 Edition

In the 5th installment of Take a Chance on Me, I alert fantasy owners to invest in Dioner Navarro, catcher for the Tampa Bay Rays and Jonathan Sanchez, starting pitcher for the San Francisco Giants. Both players are going under the radar and are being incredibly undervalued. My assumption is that their previous track records and unpopular teams are to blame for this.

Check out my column at the Fantasy Baseball Generals.

Fantasy Friday's - Actually on a Friday?

I'm heading to Cleveland this weekend for the Yanks-Indians game on Saturday afternoon. Apparently fans will be provided with 'rally towels' to help motivate the Indians as they try to remain hot after sweeping the Royals. I have tickets to Saturday's game where soft tossers Ian Kennedy and Jeremy Sowers will face off in front of a Nationally televised audience.

After seeing Sowers at the Bisons Home Opener, I have a tough time believing he is going to have much success against the Hall of Fame lineup the Yankees are running out there. With Rodriguez out of the lineup, he is definitely in better shape, but this is not going to be an easy start for the young lefty.

That said, with the Indians bats blazing hot right now, Ian Kennedy (whom is the focus of this weeks General's Speculator) is in for a tough task as well.


Revisiting free agent pick ups is often enjoyable and other times, regretful. Last week, I discussed Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Guillen and JJ Hardy. While each player had the best weeks of the season to date, neither really broke out. Hardy had the best fantasy line hitting his first home run of the season as well as coming in with a .333 batting average. Guillen also place his first hit over the outfield fences and Gutierrez finally started hitting the ball with some authority. Overall, none of the players visited took the league by storm, but all are moving in the right direction, which is good enough for me. So definitely keep an eye on them.

This week I am going to follow the same rules as I outlined in last weeks Fantasy Friday. That is,

The players will have be required to qualify for the batting title, and own a BABIP under .250 and a HR/FB of under 6%. The figures will also have to not proportionally line up with their career marks. These figures have been chosen as they represent numbers that are well below league average which sits around .300 for BABIP and around 10% for HR/FB. Keep in mind however, that different hitters do produce varying successes in these areas which is why I will examine their career trends.

The free agent players must be owned in fewer then 50% of ESPN leagues and the trade targets will have an ADP outside the top 60 (this figure will vary as the season goes on). While this is far from an exact science, we will see over the course of the season that players with those trends will eventually reverse their fortunes.

Free Agents
Player One
2008 BABIP - .205 HR/FB - 5.9% Owned - 21.5%

The Pirates acquired Adam LaRoche after he mashed the ball for half a season for Atlanta in 2006. At the time, a lot of people had him tabbed as the guy to own for the 2007 despite an impossible to maintain HR/FB rate of 21.2%. In Pittsburgh, LaRoche was moving to a more friendly hitters park and was going to be slotted into the heart of the order, giving Jason Bay some much needed protection. Things did not work out as Pittsburgh fans and fantasy owners alike imagined, but both players were terribly unlucky.

Maybe it was playing for Pittsburgh, maybe every time the Pirates took the field gusts of wind were blowing in the hitters faces knocking potential home runs down. Whatever it was, LaRoche played better then his final line displayed. Keep in mind, that final line was not terrible in its own right. In fact, Yahoo! rated LaRoche as the 19th best first basemen in their 5 category scoring, sitting in at 169th overall.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA forecasting system is guilty of taking LaRoche's unlucky outcomes from 2007 and downgraded his power from an ISO of .243 to .210. Sitting at an ISO of .210 is no insult for LaRoche, in fact, that would come as a 20+ point increase from 2007's final line, but I am more optimistic. I see no reason why LaRoche cannot make it to the .243 figure that PECOTA forecasted entering last season.

Off to another slow start, LaRoche, who was drafted on average with the 175th pick in ESPN leagues is now owned in only 21.5% of leagues. His BABIP is bound to return to .300 level as it has for his career and he is certain to start clearing some fences. It is time to pick up LaRoche before he has a hot weekend and it is too late.

Player Two
2008 BABIP - .193 HR/FB - 0.0% Owned - 0.0%

The move to the American League has been difficult on Mike Lamb, although he has managed to hold onto his full time job. He will need to turn things around shortly though, as the Twins are starting to get healthy and have a jammed outfield. I also need to preface this by suggesting that I do not expect Lamb to carry a fantasy team, nor am I suggesting he is a long term option at third base. But at a corner infield slot, this potential 25 HR hitter is a nice player to consider.

Consider as a part time player in Houston, Lamb put up double digit home run totals. Prorate those statistics into a full time role, and there is little doubt that Lamb could easily launch 20 home runs, and with a little luck, 25+.

As a hitter who went undrafted in ESPN leagues, the consensus was that Lamb would not do enough to merit a spot on ones roster. While staying away has proven a valuable move to this point, Lamb, like LaRoche, is a hot weekend away from being a nice short term pick up.

Player Three
BABIP - .242 HR/FB - 0.0% Owned - 0.1%

A couple other factors I consider when looking at a player is their history as well as their role within an organization. While I was shocked that the Mariners brought in Brad Wilkerson with Wladimir Balentien ready for the show, it is obvious that the club intends to stick it out with Wilkerson, the one time centerpiece of the Alfonso Soriano trade.

I am currently focusing on players who are off to a slow start whom people have most likely ignored but should not for much longer, given their ability to break out. Some may read what I am writing and assert that the players suck and thus should not be owned and point to the small 50-60 at bat sample size. I will remind people of what was written as Brock for Broglio in regards to sample size.

That said, the projection systems have Wilkerson sitting with an ISO (isolated power, slugging percentage minus batting average) of between .173 and .191. Any of those figures would represent the second lowest average for Brad's career, with the lowest occurring in homer nightmare RFK stadium. That said, I'm not buying that the best Wilkerson can do is 8 points below his career average.

Nevertheless, at .191 CHONE projection system expects Wilkerson to hit 17 home runs in 404 at bats. If Wilkerson can stay healthy and accumulate 600 at bats for Seattle, that would prorate his home run total to 25. To me, that is on the low end. Given Wilkerson's fly ball tendencies, combined with his career HR/FB rate, expecting 25 home runs out of your 5th outfielder is not a far fetch.

Trade For
2008 BABIP - .171 HR/FB - 4.3% ADP - 50.0 Owned - 100%

I am somewhat going against my own rule here, as I am targeting a player inside the top 50. However, this is an emergency situation as I do not think the chance to buy low on Robinson Cano will remain. Cano is currently having a terribly unlucky start to his 2008 season, and there really isn't any explanation for it. His rate stats (LD%, GB%, FB%) are all essentially on par with his career average. There is a discrepancy in IFFB% (infield fly ball percentage), however it is doubtful this has anything to do with Cano's batting average, as fly balls rarely turn into hits to begin with. It could be a sign that Cano is struggling to hit with authority, but again, we're talking a small sample size, something a hot weekend can erase.

That said, I am also going to come out and state, I am not a fan of Robinson Cano. I would not be trying to acquire him if not for his terribly slow start and my thinking that he is going to be incredibly undervalued.

If you are an Ian Kinsler owner, I suggest trying to flip Kinsler for Cano as well as trying to make an upgrade in another area (say adding on Brian Wilson for JJ Putz-although the ship may have sailed on that one). That is, while I am not a huge fan of Cano, I am an even less fan of Kinsler and believe this is the perfect time to sell high on Kinsler with his stolen base total and high batting average.

If there is anyone you would like me to take a look at in a future article, feel free to leave a comment in the comments section or send me an email to bheikoop@baseballdigestdaily.com.