Ray Pride Part XI - And Then There Were Two (Part 1?)

Apparently the Rays had gotten cocky. Apparently claiming that beating the Red Sox in the regular season was not enough reason for this team to celebrate for the first time in franchise history. Well, entering the bottom of the 7th with a 7-0 lead should be enough for the Rays to officially have 'taken down' Red Sox Nation. To add insult to injury, the Rays are taking care of business on the hallowed grounds of Fen Way Park-where fans are rushing to the T Train!

The game is 99% in the books according to FanGraphs, sorry, 98% with Jed Lowrie's lead-off double. Although FanGraphs does not take into account how terrible Jason Varitek is. Not only is the measely 2% chance of victory quite uninspiring, so too is the fact that from 1977 to 2006 only 1 out of 220 home teams have come back from a 7 run deficit with a runner on second, and no outs in the bottom of the 7th.

While the Sox made a historic come back quite recently, they have simply been overmatched this series and are clearly the inferior team. In fact, Sox fans began jumping ship as early as 9:38 PM EST at Over The Monster.


In other words, this series is done, the Rays are the ALCS winners and with home field advantage, absolutely have to be the favorites entering the World Series. Apparently the Rays are better then even I had anticipated.

Update - 11:11 PM EST - 16/10/2008

Apparently someone in Boston made one of those '11:11' wishes. This certainly is a shift in the momentum, but it is still too little, too late. In fact, according to FanGraphs, the difference Sox are still only have an 8% chance at winning. Historically, the Sox are now in a much better crowd then they were without the runs. However, only 7% of teams down by 3, with 2 outs in the bottom of the 7th have come back to win the game.

Update - 11:29 PM EST

Through 2 innings of work, Jonathan Papelbon has thrown 38 pitches, while not being specifically efficient. He has, however, gotten the job done and taken care of the Rays for two innings. I would put the odds at Papelbon returning for the 9th at slim to none, and with Okajima and Delcarmen already having been used, the Sox have to take the lead entering the 9th inning.

Update - 11:33 PM EST

Seriously?!?

JD Drew just hammered a ball out of the park! We officially have a ballgame!

There are two legitimately positive outcomes of the game getting close:

1. The fans who left and are unable to celebrate this possibly historic evening, and
2. The fans who are going bezurk in the stands that may feel the devastating punch in the jaw of defeat when (if) the Sox lose.

Oh, this just in, TBS announcers proclaimed that Dan Wheeler was 'rattled' after the Drew home run. The evidence, Wheeler threw his first post-homerun pitch out of the strike zone. Great analysis!

Does everyone remember when Tony Kornheiser was 'forced' to apologize for his borderline racial slur on Monday Night Football? How come commentators aren't 'forced' to apologize when they make an uneducated proclamation?

Update - 11:47 PM EST

Tie ballgame!

Wow...I guess it really is never over at Fenway Park.

Update - 11:54 PM EST

The long 8th inning combined with 38 pitches over 2 innings forced Terry Francona to take Papelbon out of the game in favor of rookie Justin Masterson. Bartlett took the 4th pitch he saw and hit a single. The Sox bullpen has nothing left, although every arm is presumed to be available.

If you're not watching, I imagine you aren't reading this...

Update - 12:13 AM EST - 17/10/2008

With the Rays up 7 runs entering the bottom of the 7th, I imagine the clubhouse was being covered for champagne celebrations and ALCS apparel. Are they tearing everything down now? Did they when the Sox tied it up? How devastating would it be to walk into the clubhouse with all of that in it?

Update - 12:16 AM EST

Wow!

The Rays made history!

Apparently the Sox won't go down without a fight. Apparently I was wrong, the game wasn't over! Good on the Sox, way to make it a series!

"What Would the Outsider Do" - Texas Rangers

With one of baseball's best young players to build around, the Rangers simply need to put together a supporting cast similar to what the Cardinals have put around Albert Pujols. Add in some nearly league average pitching and an adequate bullpen, and you have yourself a playoff contender.

The problem with this formula, however, is that the Rangers have not been able to even come close to being a league average starting rotation. In fact, over the past 9 seasons, the Rangers rotation has not once been higher then 25th in the league in ERA. During this time, the rotation's ERA has been as low as 5.04 and as high as 6.24, averaging .98 higher then the league median.

In other words, we are talking about a team that is desperate for run prevention. The sad part about this, is that the Rangers have spent money trying to prevent runs, it simply has not worked out for them. Another disturbing trend are pitchers having success outside of Arlington. Between Armando Gallaraga, Edinson Volquez, and Robinson Tejada, the Rangers have moved three quality pitchers whom they could build around.

Alas, the news has not been entirely negative. From having league hero Josh Hamilton, to an immensely deep and talented farm system, from being relatively set offensively, to a 'useful' bullpen. The Rangers 2007 trades paid major dividends in 2008 and are certainly players to watch towards the end of 2009 and certainly for 2010.

The Rangers may also have some trade 'candidates'. Both Vincente Padilla and Kevin Millwood have what should be expiring contracts. Padilla's contract has a club option with a reasonable buy-out, and for Millwood's contract to expire he needs to be held under 180 innings pitched this season. While neither pitcher looks necessarily attractive as I write this, Millwood could be a decent 'buy-low' candidate for a team with money that isn't looking for a long-term commitment. Unfortunately, even I can't come up with a legitimate home for Millwood this season, and will instead write him in as the de-facto team 'ace'-how does that feel Rangers fans?

What the Rangers don't need:

Offensive players. Certainly the Rangers could afford to go after another Milton Bradley, the Rangers are set offensively for the forseeable future. Thus, the idea here should be some cheap, high-ceiling veterans. I'm thinking a Nomar Garciaparra for a similar one year, $5.25M contract. Nomar could (when healthy) play third base, as well as handle some short stop in place of the dreadful Michael Young.

Starting pitching. For a team that has finished no better then 25th in the majors in starters ERA, it is certainly a surprise that I am not advocating going hard after starting pitching. However, I already 'completed' a trade in a previous edition of WWOD that netted Luke Hochevar for catching surplus Maximilano Ramirez.

In addition to this move, I would test the waters in Boston with Jarrod Saltalamacchia. There was a rumor reported which would send one of the Sox top young pitchers (presumably Clay Buchholz or Justin Masterson). I can see why both sides would take this trade as well as understanding why both sides would balk at this deal. If I were running either club, this is a trade I would look hard and long at and a trade I will make 'official'.

I suppose that is quite the rotation overhaul afterall...

Despite having what turned out to be a dreadful bullpen, the Rangers have some nice pieces. While an upgrade would be optimal, that I figure the Rangers to struggle in 2009, there isn't a lot of reason to add expensive bullpen arms. Sadly, I do figure the Rangers to be a player for Francisco Rodriguez.

What the Rangers need:

First and foremost, this club needs to get rid of Michael Young. Young currently has one of the worst contracts in all of Major League Baseball and is quickly becoming one of the worst regulars in the league. With 5 years at $16M a year remaining, there is NO way the Rangers can move Young without eating the majority of his contract. Even then, the prospects the Rangers would receive would have such little value, the club would be just as well letting him walk altogether.

At this point, sitting on Young until Elvis Andrus is ready is what they are forced to do. However, there isn't a need to send Young out there everyday simply because he is being paid to do so.

Second, the Rangers need to figure out exactly what they've got in the system. On paper, the system looks very strong, however, we have all seen the difference between 'paper' good, and 'on-the-field' good. That said, it would be ideal for the Rangers to have Derek Holland, Neil Ramirez, and Neftali Perez all in at least triple A at some point during the 2009 season. Holland and Perez, in my opinion, are both ready for the majors, and if they manage to win a job out of Spring, I would be hard pressed to keep them down.

In addition to this trio, the Rangers have a sack full of other very highly regarded pitching prospects, as well as players with incredibly high ceilings. My favorite, Omar Poveda, keep an eye on this kid in 2009.

Lastly, the club could use an additional high-ceiling outfielder. While Nelson Cruz and David Murphy both performed at a high level in 2008, it would be ideal for the Rangers to go into 2010 with somewhat of a competition. Engel Beltre will eventually work his way into the equation, the best route for him would be a 2011 debut. Julio Borbon is another interesting prospect, but we're again looking at 2010 as truly pushing it.

That said, if either Kasey Kiker or Richard Bleier, both very young with a solid amount of potential could go to Detroit for Wilkin Ramirez.

Here's how I see the Rangers Opening Day shaking out:

2B - I. Kinsler
RF - D. Murphy
CF - J. Hamilton
LF - N. Cruz
DH - H. Blalock
1B - C. Davis
3B - N. Garciaparra
C - T. Teagarden
SS - M. Young

David Murphy in the two hole would be on a very short leash, either Nomar or Young could easily slide into that slot. Davis, Blalock, and Cruz are also interchangeable dependent on the matchup and who provides Hamilton with the best protection. That is, keep in mind how much of an impact Bradley had on Hamilton and vice versa.

The bench for the Rangers is deep enough, although lacking a legitmate experienced bat. However, as I mentioned, this team is going to struggle to compete and subsequently are not desperate for a quality bench. The only issue may be keeping youngsters down in the case of an injury. That said, the bench will have G. Laird, M. Byrd, F. Catalanotto, and Joaquin Arias.

Aside from the hitters mentioned previously, the Rangers have a couple additional hitters to keep an eye on this season:

• 20 year old short stop Marcus Lemon;
  
• 21 year old corner infielder John Whittleman; and
  
• 23 year old catcher/designated hitter Chad Tracy

The problem for the Rangers, as I mentioned, will be their 2009 starting rotation. I did, however, outline some minor moves which could certainly improve the rotation and give them plenty of hope for the future. Here's how it looks:

K. Millwood
L. Hochevar
C. Buchholz
B. McCarthy
V. Padilla

Aside from having a high ceiling, Hochevar and Buchholz also have strong ground ball tendencies in common and working in their favor. Both are pitchers that any team would love to build around.

The 2009 season will also represent two other shifts in the rotation. The first, would be the final years of the Millwood and Padilla tragedy's. Both are overpaid, and the Rangers should invest that money in Kinsler and Hamilton.

The second shift, is a look at what they've got. Brandon McCarthy is still young enough to break out, although being a flyball pitching in Arlington certainly doesn't work in his favor. Replacements, however, are nearly ready and should not be held back because of the overpaid duo of Millwood and Padilla, nor should the McCarthy for John Danks mistake lead the Rangers to pressing that issue.

Lastly, the Rangers bullpen. The 'chair thrower' has finally done enough ball throwing to prove he is ready and capable to take over as the full time closer. Last year's Opening Day closer is being moved into a LOOGY role and the rest will simply be 'mud' against the wall.

Here's how it looks:

CL - F. Francisco
SU - J. Benoit
RP - CJ Wilson
RP - W. Madrigal
RP - B. Garr
RP - K. Loe
RP - Elizardo Ramirez

Garr is the club's closer of the future that really does not need any additional time in the minors. He does not project out as a top 5 closer, but has provided a fairly strong strikeout rate, coupled with an adequate walk rate in the minors to be given a look at the big leagues in 2009. Madrigal is another youngster to watch in 2009 as his 93.5mph fastball is strong enough to limit home runs in Arlington.

The bullpen is an area that we will begin to see pieced together as pitchers fail to become reliable starters in the minors. There are a lot of bodies in the minors and clearly, not each one will develop into a big league starter. Thus, the current state of this bullpen would be defined as 'liquid'-easy to move.


2009 will be an interesting season for the Rangers. While the big league club will not give fans a lot to cheer about, following the hoard of top prospects in this system will undoubtedly be an exciting and full time job. At this point, I would say the Rangers need another two years of 'building' before they can begin making aggressive free agent moves.

The club has a very strong core and should not hesitate being active in the trade market. Another Volquez for Hamilton type deal would be incredible, and with the clubs lower level, high ceiling pitching depth, it may be a reality.

Next up - Pittsburgh Pirates

Under The Radar - Charlie Manning

"Really? Her?"
-Michael Bluth

Well no, not Bland, but Charlie Manning! Yesterday, the St. Louis Cardinal claimed the left handed Charlie Manning off of waivers from the Washington Nationals. The 29 year old (to be 30 as of Opening Day) had a fine rookie season for the Nationals, and will certainly appreciate the tutelage of Card's pitching coach, Dave Duncan, who has made more out of less then what he is being given in Manning.

Charlie Manning is described as a 'finesse lefty' and fits that description perfectly averaging 87.3mph on his fastball which he uses less then 50% of the time. Interesting velocity comparisons here are Mark Buehrle and Ted Lilly, both of whom, Manning is not, but if anyone can get him close to those two, my money would be on Duncan.

However, a starting pitcher isn't how the Cardinals intend to utilize Manning, which is obvious, considering that Manning hasn't consistently started since 2003 in high A ball. The Cardinals will instead utilize Manning out of the bullpen, in a role they struggled to fill with a quality reliever last season. That is, as a left handed reliever.

Manning will join Randy Flores, Jamie Garcia, and if re-signed, Ron Villone, as possible lefties out of the Cardinals bullpen in 2009. Given that Manning's first shot at the big league level was essentially as good as any of the other relievers, he has as good of a shot as anyone at being the LOOGY (left handed one out guy) for the Cardinals next season.

Given that LOOGY's are a fairly hot commodity and would cost upwards of $3M in the free agent market, this acquisition is certainly a solid one by the Cardinals front office. The cost for the club is very minimal, while Manning's strong strikeout rate in recent years makes him a good bet to have a fair amount of value for the Card's in 2009, or at least giving them another option if Villone does not resign, and Flores and Garcia do not prove to have turned things around.

Charlie Manning is TheOLIB's first Under the Radar acquisition for the 2009 Hot Stove League.

MASSIVE NEWS!!!

My writing here has been slightly limited, although I hope there is a slight amount of grace given the news that was recently unveiled by Baseball Digest Daily-where I have been spending more and more time writing lately.

Today, Joe Hamrahi, President and Founder of Basebll Digest Daily, and Baseball Prospectus officially joined in a partnership that will see Joe Hamrahi taking over as CFO of BP's parent company, Prospectus Entertainment Venture.

As per the press release,

Chicago, IL (October 10, 2008) – Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC, owner of BaseballProspectus.com (BP), today announced the acquisition of BaseballDigestDaily.com from Sports Digest Daily, LLC. As a condition of the sale, Joe Hamrahi, founder and president of BDD, has agreed to become the Chief Financial Officer of PEV.

PEV’s decision to acquire Baseball Digest Daily further enhances the content offerings of Baseball Prospectus by adding some of the game’s best analysts as well as over 100 pages of baseball news and original content. In addition, BDD’s player tracker provides a platform for serious fans and fantasy baseball enthusiasts to easily monitor the progress of their teams, allowing users to manipulate and track the progress of an unlimited set of players over a customized period of time.

Hamrahi brings more than twenty years of finance and accounting experience to PEV. He is a licensed CPA in the state of New York and holds a BA in economics from Binghamton University and an MBA in accounting from Baruch College. Joe is a skilled businessman who is known and respected among major and minor league baseball executives alike.

“We are excited to add Baseball Digest Daily and Joe Hamrahi to the PEV family,” said Kevin Goldstein, PEV executive and senior writer for Baseball Prospectus. “We believe that BDD will help continue Baseball Prospectus’ reputation as the leader in baseball analysis. And positioning Joe as our CFO not only strengthens our front office, but provides us with the business leadership we need to grow the company.”

I am absolutely thrilled with this news. Not only is it good news for Joe, who went out and gave me a chance to write for BDD after minimal experience as a baseball writer, but this is incredible news for BDD and all of it's readers. Joining with such a reputable baseball research website such as BP will allow BDD to continue to grow as well as adding readership.

Onto the selfishly good news. Joe's association with BP and PEV and the subsequent BDD association with said company will not only add quite the impressive line to my resume, I will also have access to tools and databases that were never before available to me-the extent of which, even I am not sure of at this point. These tools, while predominantly utilized for BDD, will also improve the content here at TheOLIB.

This, as I mentioned, is very exciting news. I will post more when I find out the extent of my BP association-if at all! Even if I do not directly have an association with BP, the added exposure to BDD cannot be seen as a negative for me personally.

Ray Pride Part X - Taking 2 of 3 The 'Hard' Way

Tonight, I'm not going to take a stab at the TBS crew who took care of the Rays-Sox game. I'm not going to go over the highlights of the ballgame, nor am I going to discuss how I envision the remainder of the American League Championship Series capping off. Rather, what I am going to do is remind everyone of the nice showing of Rays fans at Fenway and the 'Fenway Faithful'-those who bailed before the game was over-have they not seen Fever Pitch?

Actually, scratch that...

"Nobody on the Rays in thinking that this series is over"

Obviously. It is 2 to 1 and they just regained home field advantage, which hasn't been so advantageous. While the Rays were certainly thrilled to be winning the game, and had the ever important 'shift in momentum', the club still had to win 2 of the remaining 4 games.

And an old/terrible baseball quote,

"The Red Sox are down to their final strike..."

What exactly does this ever mean? Interestingly, the moment after the commentator made this comment, Mark Kotsay fouled a ball off. In other words, he had committed a strike-but apparently not the final one.

But what if the Sox would have gotten aboard? Would they have had only ONE strike to work with? If that's the case, Edwin Jackson should have allowed the hitter to get on base and simply dust the edges until he grabbed a strike, thus, ending the ballgame.

"Bill [James] points out that people like simple explanations, and LOVE simple explanations that are actually partially true."