Monday, April 14, 2008

Fantasy Generals Speculator Part Five - Another Cueto Story

Week five of The Fantasy Baseball Generals Speculator has the authors debating what to do with Johnny Cueto.

Here is what I wrote:
Sell! Please Sell!

However, that is not to suggest that one should take whatever is thrown at them, but I think this is an obvious sell scenario. While the kid has been lights out to this point and he is definitely going to be a legitimate ace the bark is definitely more then the bite.

In terms of what I expect out of Cueto from here on out, which is the key in this equation as what he does from start #3 onwards is what you as the fantasy owner are going to net, something along these lines:
11 Wins, 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 150 Ks in 170 Innings Pitched

Consider that Cueto's final line, with those 'here on out' numbers will look as follows:
12 Wins, 4.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 168 Ks in 183 Innings Pitched

When you look at that line, and compare it to 2007 pitchers, we can see that I project Cueto to be on par with Felix Hernandez. Unfortunately, Felix is also off to a quick start this season, as I would think swapping Cueto for Felix and some would be very reasonable.

For this season, shoot for the stars. Aim at Erik Bedard or Josh Beckett and work downwards from there. If you can afford to have the inactive body for the next couple of weeks, go after Scott Kazmir. Maybe Justin Verlander's owner isn't a die hard Tigers fan and you can get a package of Verlander and a nice hitter."

At this point, you as Cueto's owner need to take advantage of the market. Few people take a 'from here on out' perspective when evaluating players and that is something you need to concentrate on when moving the kid. Doing so will allow you to look beyond what everyone is projecting of Cueto for the 2008 season as his value to your team, as mentioned, is not based on what he did in his first two starts. Those are already banked numbers, forget about them.

As you can see, my focus is to deal off of what Cueto has done and what you think he WILL do. You may be able to sucker your owner into buying into him at a high price. Even in keeper leagues, there are going to be 5-8 other pitchers who come available at some point this season that will have about the same keeper potential as Cueto. Clayton Kershaw is one that comes to mind or Max Scherzer, pitchers who have just as much upside but play in favorable parks on better teams.

Check out what the rest of the Generals had to say in this weeks Speculator. Most agree, selling is the best idea.

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