2009 Hot Stove Updates - Part Two

Another week into the off season, and another week with little to no action. Rumors, however, are beginning to heat up as teams send out their arbitration offers to impending free agents, as well as letting it be known what their intentions are for the winter meetings.

With the rule five draft a little over two weeks away, we see a front office executives look at how things work. Paul DePodesta of the San Diego Padres writes,

It would seem logical that the best way to protect a player would be to put him on the 40-man roster. That is often, but not always, the case. Sometimes, for players who are borderline roster considerations, you may be safer by leaving him OFF the 40-man. The reason is that if he's taken in the Rule V, he has to stay in the Majors or else be offered back. However, if for some reason (add a free agent, add someone through trade, need someone during the season due to injury) you need to add a player to the 40-man at a later date, you may be forced to outright someone to make room. When you outright a first year roster player, he still has all of his minor league options, so teams can claim him and send him right into their minor league system. In short, it's much easier to lose a player trying to remove him from the 40-man than it is to lose him via the Rule V draft.

This is certainly an interesting take, and one that few probably consider. The Indians, for example, left the electric, yet highly unpolished left hander Chuck Lofgren off the 40 man roster. While Lofgren is likely to be selected in the draft, it seems unlikely that he will remain on a teams 25 man roster for the duration of the season. While Lofgren is blessed with incredible stuff, his lack of control has gotten the better of him and he has failed to show improvements while repeating levels.

I will take a more indepth look at the Rule V draft once we get a little bit closer to that time.

December first, marks the date that teams have to finalize arbitration offers to any impending free agents. There are a lot of interesting cases this year, none more so then the New York Yankees Andy Pettitte. Pettitte's agent leaked that the Dodger's had asked if Andy would be willing to come to the West Coast. This news sparked the interest of the Yankees as a rejected arbitration offer to Pettitte would make it likely that the Yankees would land some high draft picks as compensation.

However, there is a question whether the Yankees want Pettitte around for another season. With three arms almost certainly locked into the rotation, and speculation regarded the addition of at least one top tier free agent, the Yankees simply do not need the 36 year old lefty.

The Red Sox have a similarly interesting case on their hands with Jason Varitek. The major difference here is that Varitek's value is predominantly placed within the intangibles, such as being the team captain. However, Tek the hitter, has slipped to a point where his bat may be hurting the Sox more then his intangibles help. That being said, do the Sox offer Varitek arbitration and risk him accepting the offer? If Varitek rejects arbitration, the Sox would have a type A free agent on the market that would net them two high draft picks.

While many of the cases are obvious, there are the aforementioned pair, as well as a dozen borderline candidates, players whom their current teams would prefer to be without, but are risking being stuck with if arbitration is accepted.

In other news, Junichi Tazawa will announce the team he will sign with on Monday. Rumor has it that Tazawa will pick the Boston Red Sox and sign for a reported $6M for three years. The contract is presumed to be a Major League deal, despite the fact that Tazawa will start his North American career in the minors.

As I wrote previously, the Pittsburgh Pirates came to terms on deals with two pitchers from India. Both Patel and Singh were involved in a contest that would see the winner given $100,000 cash, and a chance to train under the watch of University of Southern California's pitching coach. These two are certainly worth monitoring during the 2009 season.

Here's a brief wrap-up of the minor league signings that occurred this week,

• Mike Koplove signed a minor league deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. Koplove had a fine season for the Dodgers triple A affiliate but isn't much more then an insurance policy for the back end of the Phillies bullpen.
• The Kansas City Royals brought in backstop JR House. While House has never been able to succeed at the Major League level, his recent minor league statistics give reason to believe he could be a fine backup. At worst, he is organization depth.
• Trying to scoop up the next Joakim Soria, the Kansas City Royals signed 24 year old, right handed pitcher Federico Castaneda. Armed with a fastball that sits between 92 and 94mph, Castaneda is a fine pick up and one to keep an eye on.
• Dayton Moore continued his busy week, also signing ex-Orioles short stop Luis Hernandez, as well as Corey Smith of the Angels and Carlos Sencion from the Braves. There are predominantly organizational filler, but with enough of these signings, an organization is bound to land at least one worth-while player.
• The Milwaukee Brewers brough aboard Robert Swindle of the Phillies, and Jason Bourgeois from the White Sox. Swindle is a soft tossing left hander who had phenomenal success in both double and triple A.
  

The Jake Peavy rumors warmed back up this week as the Orioles surfaced as a possible partner in a three-way deal with the Cubs and Padres. This most recent offer would see Felix Pie heading to Baltimore in exchange for Garret Olson who would then be flipped to the Padres as part of a package for Peavy. To be completely honest, I cannot understand why the Padres would prefer Olson to Pie, but that's just me.

The Angels also surfaced as a potential landing place for both Peavy and CC Sabathia. This news surprises me as I recall Angels owner, Arte Moreno, suggesting that Alex Rodriguez is not an investment he would make. Moreno suggested that no single player is worth that percent of a teams spending.

Two trades did go down this week. The first saw the Red Sox acquiring soft-tossing relief pitcher Wes Littleton from the Texas Rangers for two players to be named or cash. As a ground ball pitcher, the Sox may hope to get out of Littleton what they have from Hideki Okajima.

In equally as useless news, the Astros acquired Tyler Lumsden from the Kansas City Royals for a PTBNL or cash.

The starting pitcher market, which is relatively deep, took a hit this week with the news that Freddy Garcia's shoulder injury has again flarred up. Garcia had made a successful return from his shoulder injury that sidelined him for the better part of two years. He was considered as a great bargain entering the free agency, however this news has got to hurt his chances of signing anything more then an incentive based deal.

Finally, the weak short stop market appears to be cornered by the Oakland Athletics. It appears imminent that Rafeal Furcal will choose that side of the bay to call his home. This will almost certainly make Bobby Crosby expendable as well as opening the door for Eric Patterson to be moved.

This weak market has also encouraged the Pirates to ask for a king's ransom for Jack Wilson. Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Dodgers have balked at the Pirates asking price of highly regarded prospect Chin-Lung Hu, Delwyn Young, and a third player. It would be wise for Huntington to take Hu straight up, but with the market in his favor, Huntington is in the position to get exactly what he wants.


In non-specific player news, MLB announced that the names of players who tested positive for Amphetamines. By MLB rule, players were suspended only after testing positive a second time, which has resulted in only a couple of suspensions. This new ruling will alert the public the names of every player who tested positive during the 2008 season and going forward.

It will be interesting to see what sort of performance correlation there exists with positive tests.

That's the wrap from last week...

Rebuilding the International Way

The Hot Stove League has hit a lull, the big name free agents are still jockeying for the best possible offer, and many of the trade rumors have cooled for now. The Winter Meetings, being held in Las Vegas beginning December 8th, is where most of that action will occur.

However, some of the best long term moves have been made in recent days, and they also haven't involved players with household names in North America.

On Monday, it was confirmed that the Pittsburgh Pirates had signed Indian contest winners 20-year-old right-hander Dinesh Patel and 19-year-old southpaw Rinku Singh. This is big news for a team that had typically been quiet signing international free agents. Even more important is the fact that Neal Huntington has put another stamp on the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving this franchise some legitimate hope.

The two youngsters have spent the better part of the last year learning how to pitch under the tutelage of the pitching coach from the University of Southern California. The last year has seen the two Indian pitchers gradually learn the nuances of the game, as well as American culture.

According to a report from MLB.com,

When it comes to the scouting reports, the 6-foot-2 Singh throws 89-90 mph and has a split-finger changeup pitch. The 5-foot-11 Patel throws a circle change and can reach 91-92 mph with his heater.

Not bad for two young arms that are just learning how to throw a baseball.

Further reports from EWC.com,

Dinesh Patel, RHP, 5′10/185

Aaron: Definitely the more polished of the two. Strong upper body, but the legs are a little thin. Throws from the stretch and starts in a crouched position. Nice tempo — quick, but not hurried. Leg comes in high and he’s very aggressive to the plate. Call it a 3/4 arm angle. Has a very smooth and natural-looking delivery for someone who had never played baseball before last year.

Fastball is 84-85 and touches 87 with some tail down and in on right-handed batters, showing occasional sink. Delivery looks repeatable, but his release point is a little inconsistent, which will create command issues until he sorts it out. Due to his lack of height, he doesn’t get great plane but nice movement on the fastball can compensate for it. The ball doesn’t come out of his hand as easily as I’d like, but I he gets good extension on his follow-through. Nice aggressive finish.

Slider is 77-79. Doesn’t always get a lot of depth, but, again, like everything else with both these players, you have to remember Patel has been playing baseball for a friggin’ year. With that in mind the slider looks like it has the possibility of developing into a useful secondary pitch.

He looks polished and I find that somewhat shocking. It’s difficult to project what Patel might become or if he’s got the talent to be a pitcher in the majors, but I will say I don’t think this is some gimick signing. There’s something there.

Rinku Singh, LHP, 6′2, 185 lbs.

Jackson: Ringku Singh is clearly the less polished of the two prospects and is more of a project, likely a more boom-or-bust type pitcher than his counterpart Dinesh Patel. He has poor command at this point and gives his bullpen catcher headaches, frequently losing his grip on the ball and struggling to find his form.

However, at 6’2 185, the ceiling is there and he’s clearly an athlete. He’s got long arms and legs, a nice, strong high leg kick and overall shows strength and flexibility in his unpolished delivery. He throws from a ¾ arm slot, bringing his arm way down below his waist and then letting go with a sort of catapault-like delivery where he pushes the ball a bit. He struggles to repeat his form, especially with the lower half, and his follow through needs a lot of work. His arm speed is average at best and he relies on leverage to generate velocity.

Singh’s FB comes in 79-83 MPH, with a slow moving curve that ranges from 67-72. He currently lacks a real feel for the breaking pitch and his curve has little bite to it.

As the authors stress, the two players are extremely advanced for the amount of baseball they have played. Another thing to keep in mind is that they have received training from a world class instructor, the pitchers haven't had years of little league ball to develop bad habits, or throw too many breaking balls with poor form.

In other words, the Pirates picked up two high ceiling pitchers that they can mold however they see fit. This is a big move for baseball's most hapless franchise, one, that as I mentioned, has to provide hope for fans of this ballclub.

Which leads me to wonder if people consider moves in November when awarding their Executive of the Year award. While this move may not have an immediate impact on the Pirates, it certainly improves them for the long term, as well as opening the doors to the franchise entering the international market more aggressively.


This more aggressive approach even led Huntington to sending a scout to check in with Junichi Tazawa-only to find out that Tazawa's price tag would be out of the reaches of this small market club.

If you recall, the hype surrounding Tazawa began at the end of October when he went unselected (as per request) in Japan's entry draft. At this point, I suggested a Major League team blow away the competition and offer Tazawa a Major League contract of $10M a year for 5 of 6 years.

Tazawa has Major League stuff, he has the control to be a quality forth or fifth stater right now. While ten million may be a little steep to pay for an end of the rotation starter, it is a much wiser investment then bringing in a Jon Garland. Not to mention the international dividends from adding a Japanese player, the same dividends that has a report suggesting that Tazawa will reportedly sign with the Boston Red Sox.

With Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima already in New England and the Red Sox in the midst of building a dynasty-like organization, Tazawa does not have a particularly difficult decision to make, all else being equal.

If the Sox sign Tazawa for a sum under eight million dollars, it will have to be considered a failure on the part of the other Major League executives. While the Sox have as much money to spend as anyone, they also have the aforementioned advantage of Dice-K and Okajima. Thus, if a team truly wanted Tazawa, they would have to outright buy him.

The Problem With Lazy Analysis

Over at the Bleacher Report there is a debate regarding the merits of the MVP award and who it rightfully deserves to be awarded to. One author believes it must go to a player on a winning team, as a player on a losing team could be replaced with any player and that team would still lose. The author asserts that a loss is a loss; although he claims 'confidence' and intangibles are important factors.

Admittedly the author believes that the BBWAA got the 2008 American League Most Valuable Player wrong, but isn't too alarmed at the selection feeling it was an unqualified group to begin with. Thus, he continues discussing meaningless merits such as defensive value-although incorrectly tabbing second base as the 'easiest infield position to field'. His source, Little League Baseball. The logic is utterly horrifying, but is a great place to start at pointing out the lazy analytical skills of this writer.

With the internet such an easy tool to make quick searches, would it have been so difficult for the author to discover that second base is rated as the third most difficult position to play? Behind short but ahead of center field? Possibly the author was stuck in a 1920's, when the double play wasn't as prominent.

Whatever the reason, we can see the beginning of a rather lazy analysis. This only furthers the misinformation provided earlier where the author asserts that only those on playoff caliber teams are worthy of the Most Valuable Player Award. This is noted due to the fact that the author lists players only on playoff caliber teams.

The statistical analysis is equally as weak as the author ignores park factors. This is a fairly simple task nowadays, Baseball Prospectus offers a straight forward and easily accessed stat called Equivalent Average. Dustin Pedroia had a fine season, but offensively he wasn't even on the map of Milton Bradley, Alex Rodriguez, among others.


What is worse about this authors analysis is the next step he takes towards justifying his justification regarding Pedroia. The author states that the award must go to a player on a winning team, simply because that is how the voters have done things historically.

Before diving too deep into this, has the author already forgotten the Edinson Volquez debacle of two weeks ago? Remember, when three voters were so confused with the rules of rookie eligibility that they named Volquez on their ballots. Worse yet, these voters are so ignorant that they managed to convince themselves that Geovanny Soto's impressive rookie campaign was somehow superior to Volquez's excellent non-rookie season.

The next obvious error the author makes is in assuming that the voting criteria has not changed. That is, we now know that batting average is only an important fact in context. On base percentage, has taken over as a significantly more vital statistic. Thus, where players would previously win award based on high batting averages, those figures have now become secondary to on base and slugging averages.

As the voters understanding of value evolves, the winners will become more accurately understood.

According to our author, playing on a winning team is much more valuable, according tot he voters, then playing on a losing team. The argument, not as bad as his Little League justification, but a joke nonetheless, "History and Major League Baseball are screaming it right in your face."

Before I go too far into this, can anyone remember when history and Major League Baseball made errors? Hmm, how about when there was racial segregation in the sport? Prior to Jackie Robinson and Larry Doby, was it accurate to suggest that black players were inferior? Or is it more accurate to figure out why those players were left from the ranks of Major League Baseball?

Similarly, the author's this is the way it's done philosophy is in shambles. First, simply because that is the way it has been done, does not legitimize the process.

Second, claiming that a direct correlation exists between MVP's and being on a winning team is a lazy conclusion to draw. Especially when the author admits that the two players that won MVP awards from non-winning teams were obvious choices. The obvious question then, were the players selected because they were on winning teams, or because they were obvious choices?

I decided to properly analyze this trend to find out if it was a coincidence that the last fourteen respective MVP's came from winning teams. The following chart represents my findings:

I will begin by stating that this analysis is far from iron-clad. One thing I would alter about this analysis would be to utilize more value based statistics. Since not every one of these stats agree with one another on the basis of what is valuable and what characteristics make a player valuable, it would be superior to use a couple more. However, utilizing Baseball Prospectus' VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is a nice place to start, and one that statistically ranks players.

I then researched the recent MVP winners. A more in depth study would look at the second and third place finishers, but for now, this will suffice.

My next step was to find the top three finishes according to VORP as well as the position the eventual MVP finished in. As you can see, Baseball Prospectus picked the accurate MVP winning (within 2 places) in 16 of 28 years. In other words, the best or close to the best player (according to Baseball Prospectus) was the eventual best player as per the BBWAA. This has nothing to do with winning. I repeat, NOTHING!

However, I wanted to find out what winning had to do with eventual winners. I wanted to find out if there was in fact a correlation between being in the top three in VORP and being on a winning team.

The conclusion, of the top three players in terms of VORP over the last 14 seasons (84 in total), 64 came from teams with a recordof .500 or better. In other words, the best players play for the best teams-logical, right?


What does this brief study show? That the BBWAA are not picking the players based on whether or not they play for a winning clubs, rather, the BBWAA are picking the best players-albeit in a relatively flawed system.

Eric O'Flaherty - Under the Radar

Under the Radar moves are typically the type of pick-ups that fill the end of a teams roster, the 23rd, 24th, or 25th man. A Spring Training invitee with plenty of upside. Frank Wren of the Atlanta Braves made one of those moves on Thursday, claiming left handed reliever Eric O'Flaherty off of waivers from the Seattle Mariners.

The 23 years old O'Flaherty has been mediocre at best while pitching in the Major Leagues. In exactly 70 innings, O'Flaherty owns a Fielding Independent of Pitching (FIP) of 4.41, a good, but not great figure. In fact, other then his FIP, there isn't much to get excited about given his Major League performance to date, that, of a 1.53 strikeout to walk ratio.

However, O'Flaherty has some nice minor league statistics, particularly the ones that are important for his likely Major League role. That is, O'Flaherty's line against left handed hitters is outstanding, and can hardly be considered as a product of facing minor leaguers.

The first thing that sticks out is the plus two strikeouts per nine innings that O'Flaherty experiences against left handed hitters. Eric goes from owning an average strikeout to walk ratio of just over 2:1, to a solid ratio of 3:1. While this hasn't entirely translated to his performance in the Major Leagues, O'Flaherty also has not been utilized in the appropriate role.

That is, a move to becoming a situational left handed pitcher, a pitcher who comes in to face predominantly left handed hitters, would be a move that would certainly bump O'Flaherty from potential to dependable.

Consider that entering the 2007 season (the last season O'Flaherty qualified), John Sickels of Minor League Ball rated O'Flaherty as a C+ prospect stating that Eric should be a very good reliever.

In a similarly high rating, Baseball America tabbed O'Flaherty as the 10th best prospect in the Mariners system. Either that is telling of a weak system, or that O'Flaherty is a fine relief prospect.

Given that Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had O'Flaherty 'just missing' his top 10 under 25 Mariners prospects for the 2008 season, it seems justifiable to assert he has a legitimate ceiling.


O'Flaherty has a Minor League FIP of 3.28, and while much of the shine on his prospect badge has worn off, it is certainly too early to write him off as at least an effective LOOGY. At just 23 years of age, O'Flaherty is an excellent pick up, still having enough upside to be a complete steal of an acquisition.

As an added bonus, Johan Santana shows up on O'Flaherty's Most Comparable list according to his PECOTA card.

2009 Hot Stove Updates - Part One

This is the first installment of a weekly series reporting on Major League Baseball's off-season, The Hot Stove League. I will continue reflecting on trades that go down, as well as Under the Radar columns, and pretty much the same stuff that I would typically be doing during the off season.

This series then, will touch on everything else that I deem important, but not important enough for it's own post. It's like taking Lassie out into the woods, and...

Leading off with the biggest news of the Hot Stove League this week is Mike Mussina announcing his retirement, axing a potential 300 winner from baseball. I'm not sure whether or not Mussina is a Hall of Fame pitcher, but he didn't hurt his cause by finishing his career with one of his best seasons. Mussina's reputation as a good guy coupled with a solid winning percentage should be enough for the voters to get him in eventually. He deserves to be in, but not based on those two, but rather because of his 3.57 career FIP and incredible durability.

The next highlight, or low light for Phillies fans, is the announcement that Chase Utley will require major surgery on his hip. As it stands, Utley is scheduled to miss at least April and May of the 2009 season. Hip surgeries are serious, and if not treated as such (ie. the Phillies caring more about repeating then longevity) Utley's career could quickly become in jeopardy.

In other news, Bud Selig has assured the fans that he won't have to implement the commissioner's best interest of the game clause the next time a playoff game is to be ended early. Selig announced on Thursday that playoff games will be played in their entirety.

A couple trades went down last week, first, the Royals and Red Sox agreed to swap Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp. I gave this trade to the Red Sox, as they were the ones who filled a spot on their roster with a meaningful piece. I can't see Crisp truly being a worthwhile player for the Royals.

ESPN's Rob Neyer reacts to the Crisp and Mike Jacobs deals questioning what the use of acquiring two players who only make this club marginally better, but still not good enough to contend. While I am not currently impressed with either acquisition, it is impossible to believe that Dayton Moore does not intend to make another deal off of these ones. That said, we have to believe that David DeJesus and Billy Butler will net a substantial gain over Leo Nunez and Ramirez.

While Moore takes a partial hit from DeJesus and Butler to Crisp and Jacobs, the gains ought to be larger then the value of Nunez and Ramirez. Until that occurs, however, Neyer is right, what's the use?

The second trade, a largely ignored swap of ex-first round picks between the Rangers and Phillies. The Rangers received uber-toolsy Gregory Golson in exchange for Hulk-like John Mayberry. This will be an interesting trade to look back on in a year or so from now.

Free Agency has been relatively quiet and largely disappointing in terms of signings. Yesterday, the White Sox and Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo agreed to terms on a contract. In other Chicago news, Ryan Dempster decided to stay put with the Cubs, thus foregoing his opportunity at winning a World Series.

The San Francisco Giants made an excellent move this week, bringing in highly underrated reliever Jeremy Affeldt. Affedlt's 2 year, $8M contract is well below market value, which is shocking, simply because he signed with the Giants-a team that traditionally overpays.

AJ Burnett seems to have stolen many of the headlines among available free agents. According to the Toronto Star, Burnett's agent has said any team not willing to offer a five year deal is going to be behind the eight ball. I can't see why it wouldn't worry a ball club that a player is so adamant about signing for a fifth year, especially with the injury history of a player like AJ Burnett.

Phils and Rangers With a Minor Deal

Today, the Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies completed a trade swapping ex-first round picks. This deal hardly skimmed the surface of Major League Baseball headlines, despite the fact that there really wasn't anything else to report today. That aside, neither piece swapped is going to make or break the futures of either of the teams involved. However, there still has to be a winner, right?

The Phillies picked up John Mayberry who turns 25 on a historic day in December. The monstrous corner outfielder hit 65 extra base hits in 519 at bats. While he is a free swinger by nature, there really isn't a better location for him to hack away then in Philadelphia.

Mayberry was rated as a B prospect by John Sickels entering the 2008 season. Presumably Mayberry's stock will drop, although there is a chance he makes the Phillies top 10 list. He has what is described as 'plus plus raw power'.

A great tool over at Minor League Splits allows us to input data from a players seasons and translate those stats into their Major League equivalents. John Mayberry's 2008 triple A OPS of .784 translates out to .659 in Philadelphia. Adjustments will need to be made in order for Mayberry to excel at the Major League level, as is, he's probably a decent right handed platoon hitter.

In exchange for Mayberry is 2004 first round pick Gregory Golson. The speedy 23 year old outfielder has been vulnerable to striking out, despite not showing any specific flaws against either right or left handed pitchers. Couple that with a weak base on balls rate, and you have the perfect (albeit terrible) National League leadoff hitter.

Golson began this season as a C+ prospect, according to John Sickels. Sickels asserted that many disagreed with Golson's relatively low rating, however Sickels felt as though his strikeouts were holding him back. That managed to hold true, and unless Golson improves his plate discipline, he will have no part on a Major League roster.

That said, Baseball America rated Golson as the Phillies #10 prospect entering the 2007 season and #7 for the 2008 season. He also rated as the fastest runner and best athlete within the organization. In addition to that, Golson has the best arm in the Phillies system. Couple that with speed and athleticism, Golson rated as the best defensive outfield in the Phillies system, so possibly he has a chance as a 5th outfielder and a defensive substitute.

What I find most interesting about the Baseball America report is the fact that they rated him as the best power hitting prospect in the Phillies system entering the 2008 season.

Similarly, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote that Golson "might possess the best package of tools in all of the minor leagues". Goldstein continues, suggesting that Golson has plenty of raw power and as high of a ceiling as anyone in baseball.

Possibly a change in scenary will be the best bet for Golson, as a change in his overall approach, coupled with some good mentoring could certainly be the remedy to Golson realizing his potential. All it will really take is a positive step in his contact rate, and the Rangers could have themselves a monster of a player.


Based on potential alone, this deal will go to the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have a more pressing need for a center fielder (right now), and the chance to win a job at the Major League level may help Golson become a better student of the game. The Phillies did not receive a slouch on their own, however Mayberry will be hard pressed to find at bats outside of Leigh High Valley.

White Sox Snag Dayan Viciedo

Today, the Chicago White Sox announced the signing of 19 year old Cuban Dayan Viciedo. Viciedo, a third basemen, signed a Major League deal worth $11M. Obviously having Alexei Ramirez and Jose Contreras, not to mention a Latin American manager, helped in the signing of this promising young player.

According to Baseball America (free content), "Viciedo has excellent power and hitting ability..." There was concern, according to the article, that Viciedo does not have much athleticism and his body could quickly begin to detriorate-meaning, he would get fat.

Viciedo has been compared by a power hitting corner infield prospect Angel Villalona, of the San Francisco Giants. Villalona, for those of you who don't know, is one of the best prospects in all of baseball. Playing the in the 2008 season predominantly as a 17 year old (ie. as a high school senior), Villalona slugged 17 home runs, en route to a .726 OPS against A ball players (predominantly 20 and 21 year olds). In other words, some outstanding praise.

Another report suggested that had Viciedo been eligible for the 2008 Rule IV Draft, he would have almost certainly been a first round selection, despite the concern that he becomes the next Kendry Morales, lacking the upside of Villalona. To be fair, that shouldn't deminish the praise one provides for Viciedo as Morales still has a great deal of potential.


In all, this is an outstanding move by the White Sox. They utilized the players on their roster in ways not commonly seen among Major League Baseball. Viciedo will easily be one of the White Sox top 3 or 4 prospects, and if there is no worry about adjusting to life in North America, Viciedo could start the season at Chicago's Double A affiliate in Birmingham. It is more likely that the Sox start him with a lesser assignment in the South Atlantic League (Single A ball).

Royals and Red Sox Come to Terms

Sometimes I am guilty of unfairly grading a trade based on the partners that are involved. I'm not referring to any extraordinary biases, nor am I claiming that my judgment is based on anything more then personal speculation. Either way, I am guilty of such.

Yesterday this occurred as the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals came to terms on a deal that would send Coco Crisp to the Royals in exchange for Ramon Ramirez. Had this been a year ago, I would have spent the next 500 or so words fluffing Dayton Moore. However, this is the second interesting (read: confusing) move that Moore has made in the short weeks of the 2009 Hot Stove League.

The first, if you remember, was Moore adding to an already deep position, making a sticky situation, that much more sticky. I ended up giving Moore somewhat of a pass on that deal, offering up a 'wait and see' conclusion. However, I am unable to do so with Moore's recent acquisition of Coco Crisp.

Covelli "Coco" Crisp is a fine ballplayer. He's an 'okay' center fielder defensively, with the ability to be phenomenal. He doesn't offer the typical traits of a corner outfielder, but would be a top notch left fielder. Crips also happens to be relatively inexpensive being owed just under $7M for the next two seasons. Durability is not an issue, neither is age, as Crisp is young enough to maintain his current level of production, with the possibility of seeing improvement.

What else makes Crips a fine ballplayer? Well, he's about league average in terms of hitting from center field. His 94 OPS+ is slightly above what the average Major League center fielder offers. And Crisp's adjusted .766 OPS is 14 points above what Major League teams averaged in 2008. Crisp's .264 career EQA is only a few points over what the Major League average is, although keep in mind that is league-wide, inclusive of first basemen, designated hitters, etc.

In other words, we're not talking a world beater, but a fine center fielder. We're not talking about a player teams build around, but a player that can fill a hole on an otherwise strong team. He'd be a great fit for a team like the Chicago White Sox or maybe the Texas Rangers.

On the Kansas City Royals, however, he is a weak to terrible fit. While it is a nice value, in acquiring a player that would cost around $10M a year on the free agent market, and that the cost was simply a reliever, it still doesn't make much sense.

Dayton Moore and the Kansas City Royals already have their very own Coco Crisp in David DeJesus. In fact, DeJesus is a notable improvement over Crisp-although with a lesser reputation and a greater vulnerability towards injuries.

Even still, DeJesus' adjusted career OPS is .821 with a career OPS+ of 105 is substantially superior to Crisp's, and DeJesus .275 EQA begins to border on solid for center fielders.

While this trade eliminates the possibility of Joey "I jump cars" Gathright logging serious playing time with the impending departure of Mark Tehean, one has to believe that with $7M plus a reliever Moore could have gotten more then Coco Crisp. The Royals could have stretched Jose Guillen (one of the worst free agent signings from the 2008 Hot Stove League) in right field and brought in Garret Anderson.

However, Moore decided not to take that route, which leads me to believe he made another deal in anticipating of making a deal.

Otherwise, why would he send off Ramon Ramirez?

Let's not get too down on Moore, Royals fans. While Ramirez is replaceable by any number of free agent relievers, we are still talking about a hard throwing reliever that will make the league minimum in 2009. We are talking about a reliever that will make an already strong Red Sox bullpen, that much stronger, while providing the club with $7M of cash to spend.


Dayton Moore does, in a way, have the right idea. Relief pitchers are volatile, thus treating them as luxuries for roster upgrades is the right thing to do. Ramirez is the perfect reliever to sell high on, as Moore knows as well as anybody, how much his organization hid Ramirez in 2008.

Crisp, has more value long term then Ramirez, as Moore will certainly be able to pedal him for more then a 27 year old reliever. However, like the Mike Jacobs for Leo Nunez trade, Moore does little to improve the overall quality of his ballclub.

Thus, at this point, Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox won this deal as they received a piece that will certainly help their club. If Moore and the Kansas City Royals swing DeJesus or Crisp for a piece greater then Ramirez, the trade will swing in the other direction. However, if appears as though Moore is looking forward to having an outfield of Guillen-Crisp-DeJesus, which is rather unfortunate.

The Marlins Strike Again

In what appears to be a strategy of business 101, the Marlins picked up a reliever off of the scrap heap, inflated his value, and flipped him for a very promising return. This is how you run a sports franchise. This is why in the 16 seasons the Marlins have been in existence, they have managed to win two Major League Baseball World Series Championships, all the while having a penny pinching low payroll.

The club hasn't wasted it's time building a brand new ballpark, or impressing fans. Instead, the club has put together a cast of players to win a championship, then sold those players off for new players that they would have for the next championship run.

The latest appears in the form of a closer who was acquired in an under the radar type of deal. The Florida Marlins Kevin Gregg was traded to the Chicago Cubs, for an explosively talented relief prospect in Jose Ceda. Without even getting into the analysis, the Marlins won this deal hands down, but let's look a little further, to see exactly how foolish the Cubs were in this move.

Kevin Gregg is nothing special. When news broke that the Marlins were looking to unload Gregg, as a fan of the Indians, a team in need of relief hope, I simply shuttered at the idea of giving away anything of value for the still powerful 30 year old reliever.

Gregg owns a nice, by unspectacular strikeout rate. Couple that with a poor walk rate, and you have the makings of an okay reliever. The move from a ballpark which greatly deflates home runs (as noted by Gregg's home run per fly ball rate of 5.15% as a Florida Marlin) to a ballpark which inflates them, one can expect Gregg to take a considerable step back in value. It is a positive that Gregg has improved his fly ball statistics, but we're still talking about a guy who was extremely fortunate to be playing in Dolphin Stadium.

We are also talking about a reliever that is coming off of an injury and is entering the back end of his career.

Jim Hendry and the Chicago Cubs must have decided that it was wise to acquire a cheap plan B closer then to go into the season with Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija, and company-not a terrible idea, however a poorly executed one.

That is, after coming off of a season in which Gregg made $2.5M, in his second season as a closer, there is no reason to believe that Gregg's arbitration figure will not head north of $4M, and stick at at least that number for 2009. As a 'reliable' closer, that is a fair price tag, however, there is little reason to believe that he will be closing in 2009, and even less of a shot at doing so in 2010.

Wouldn't it then have been equally as efficient to bring aboard a pitcher like Kyle Farnsworth? Farnsworth has some experience as a closer and wouldn't cost a top pitching prospect-arguably baseball's best relief prospect. If the Cubbies wanted too, they could have upped the ante slightly, and went hard after Brandon Lyon.

Both angles would have brough aboard a reliever with similar talents, as well as landing one with closing experience in the case of Marmol not quite working out. The dollar and year commitments might have been slightly higher, but not by enough to disuade one from making such moves.

We aren't talking some run of the mill prospect. We aren't talking a failed started who happened to catch on as a reliever. We're talking a legitimate relief prospect. If one were to make odds about what current minor league player would become a closer, and a great one at that, Jose Ceda would top most peoples lists.

The soon-to-be 22 year old right handed fireball reliever has been absolutely dominant in the minors. Three years as a starter (to get in work) and reliever have went a long way in building Ceda's stock, to the point where he was considered as the likely closer-of-the-future in a Chicago organization that has Carlos Marmol.

According to MLB.com,

He throws plenty hard, with a fastball that sits comfortably in the upper 90s and has hit triple digits in the past. His slider has sharpened considerably since he began working in relief in 2007.

The only real blip on Ceda's radar came in '07, when he missed some time with a sore shoulder. When he returned, he finished off the season with 23 1/3 consecutive hitless innings.

Really? 23 1/3 consecutive HITLESS innings?!? If that doesn't sell you, I'm not sure what will. Although I'll keep trying.

Entering the 2008 season, here are a list of highlights from around the interweb:

• Baseball America rated Ceda's fastball as the best in the Cubs system;
• John Sickels rated Ceda as a B- prospect, one of the best relievers in the game;
• Kevin Goldstein rated Ceda as a 3 star prospect, stating, "fastballs that sit in the 94-97 mph range, and he has hit triple-digits on occasion. His slider is also a plus offering that features heavy two-plane break."
  

Goldstein even rose his praise on Ceda after the 2008 season, now bumping him up to a 4 star prospect. Further, Goldstein asserts that there is little doubt Ceda will be pitching late in games sooner rather then later. He cites members of the Cubs organization who believe Ceda is very close to being ready for Major League action right now.

This is a substantial gain from where Ceda was to start the 2007, where Sickels suggests Ceda was a long ways away.


While nobody will suggest that the Cubs shot themselves in the foot here, there is very little reason to believe they improved their club from an angle they couldn't have attacked via free agency. Ceda's value, while an understandable luxury for a club with Marmol, Samardjiza, and Donald Veal, has got to be substantially higher then what the Cubs received for him.

That is, as I mentioned, would the Cubs be worse off with Farnsworth or Lyon for the next 2 or 3 years instead of Gregg? If so, by how much? I think it is reasonable to suggest that Ceda would more then make up for any possible deviation noted there.

2008 BBWAA American League Most Valuable Player

Dustin Pedroia?!? Oh, COME ON!

Now Pedroia had a fine season. The Red Sox would have been a worse team without him, but can't the same be said for almost any of the top 5 or 6 MVP candidates? In fact, with a cast of Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and JD Drew, it could be argued that Pedroia had it easier then the rest of the field.

According to Baseball Prospectus' "Baseball Between the Numbers", the authors founds that despite batting orders not mattering, the type of hitter following the next did have an influence on production. The following is a chart from the book:

As you can see, the better the hitter behind results in superior production. It also results in a drop in intentional base on balls. This is especially noteworthy as the players walk rate improves despite a drop in IBB.

In any event, we can see that a player like Pedroia, whom the Sox would miss, is less valuable then a player like Joe Mauer.

There is an argument for Pedroia due to the amount of games the Red Sox hitters missed, namely Drew, Lowell, and Ortiz, in addition to the eventual trade of Manny Ramirez. While Pedroia's improvement this season may have motivated the Red Sox to move Manny, I'm certain receiving Jason Bay, and knowing that Drew, Lowell, Ortiz, and Youkilis would be around didn't hurt.


All that being said, let's look at the win and value stats and see where Pedroia matches up among hitters in the American League:

• WPA - 6th (behind Mauer, Carlos Pena, Justin Morneau, Carlos Quentin, and Grady Sizemore);
• VORP - 3rd (behind Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore); and
  
• WSAB - Tied for 12th (behind Mauer, Youkilis, Ian Kinsler, Morneau, Rodriguez, Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Quentin, Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, and Milton Bradley).

These are three very important win and value statistics, of which there is consistently one player ahead of him (Sizemore) and a handful that show up on at least two lists ahead of Pedroia (Mauer, Rodriguez, Morneau, and Quentin). Does it make sense then, that Pedroia wins this award?

What is additionally shocking, a writer somehow decided to leave Pedroia off his ballot altogether. While I have spent the last while arguing that Pedroia should not have won the award, there is certainly not a lot of ways that I could be convinced to leave him off the ballot entirely.

However, from an assembly of writers which concluded that Josh Hamilton was more valuable then Grady Sizemore (by nearly three times as much), that Milton Bradley was essentially useless (he received 2 votes, a 6th and 7th), and a ballot where Ian Kinsler can only net 1 10th place vote and Mike Mussina can receive an 8th place one is simply a joke.


I truly do not know how to put this into words any longer and I am relieved that the post-season awards are finished.

2008 BBWAA National League Most Valuable Player

Pujols wins!

This afternoon Albert Pujols was named the National League's Most Valuable Player. In what was an extremely close race due to the fact that there was not a clear cut favorite for the award, the BBWAA managed to pick the most deserving player.

In total, 27 players received votes. That seems like a lot of confusion between the writers. I can't understand how, or why, there would be so many players nominated for the award and it will be interesting once what type of home team biases exist. Specifically, the bottom four players all received one vote each.

I'd like to mention one thing that sticks out to me that, well, is pathetic.

Ryan Howard? Really, what did Howard do to encourage the writers to make this such a close race? What did Howard do that made the writers feel as though he was superior to teammate Chase Utley?

Let's compare the value and win stats of these two players:

RC/27 - Utley 7.79, Howard 6.43
WPA - Howard 2.37, Utley 1.47
VORP - Utley 62.2, Howard 35.3
MLV - Utley 42.7, Howard 27.5
WSAB - Utley 16, Howard 12
WARP - Utley 10.4, Howard 5.0

As you can see, Utley is substantial superior to Howard, leading in 5 of 6 value or win statistical categories.

How about EQA?

Utley - .308
Howard - .291

There you have it, Utley was clearly more valuable then Howard.

An argument was made for the play of Howard down the stretch, however can that same argument not be made for Utley's play to start the season? Chase posted an OPS as of June 2nd of 1.083. By comparison, while Howard was hot down the stretch, his play during that time was substantial less then Chase's, posting an OPS of .954 in the second half.

By voting for Ryan Howard over Chase Utley, the writers are invariably saying that production in April and May does not count to the same degree as production July, August, and September. While games appear to be more meaningful towards the end of the season, had Utley not performed at the level he did in April and May, Howard's second half production would have gone largely unnoticed as the Phils would have been playing meaningless games.

2008 BBWAA American and National League Manager of the Year

The BBWAA announced the American and National League Manager of the Year awards. The selections were not overly surprising, nor am I in the position to debate the decisions made.

Joe Maddon took the honors in the American League with 27 of 28 first place votes. I wonder what Maddon did differently in the eyes of the writers to make him jump from not being in the top 4, to being the best manager? That, or the other managers performed at a substantially less rate.

In the National League, Lou Piniella the award in what was a much tighter race. He was not listed on everyone's ballot but did make it on 27 of 32, which is fairly impressive.

The most interesting vote was for the Brewers Dale Sveum, who was listed on one writers ballot as the third best manager. If CC Sabathia and Manny Ramirez do not qualify for award in the National League, I think it is laughable that someone picked Sveum for the managerial award.

The OLIB's 2008 Manager of the Year

The Manager of the Year Awards are ones that I truly do not care about, nor do I have a strong opinion in regards to it. It may be in part to being lazy, or it may be due to the fact that I have little to no experience playing baseball. Whatever the reason, I simply do not feel qualified to judge the performance of a manager.

That is, the easy and popular choice for the American League Award is Joe Maddon. A just argument is that Maddon was responsible for the Rays climb from worst to first. Having catchy slogans and being an interesting character certainly helps Maddon's case.

But what exactly did he do? It isn't as if Maddon 'managed' his team to being better hitters in 2008 compared to 2007, the statistics suggest both seasons were essentially identical. He did have to deal with a fair amount of injuries to deal with, so maybe he can be complimented for getting what he did out of Eric Hinske and Willy Aybar to patch up a wounded lineup.

However, Maddon also had a fair amount of underperformances. Players who simply played below their expected levels, such as Carlos Pena and BJ Upton. If Maddon is not to be punished for that, shouldn't Eric Wedge get a mulligan for Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner?

Some people may point the the improved performances from the Rays pitchers as evidence to the job that Maddon did, but is that a reflection of his management, or simply a matter of the teams defense improving? I do suppose he can be given credit for getting his pitchers to trust the players behind them, but to what degree?

Maddon successfully implemented two platoons and was patient with Jason Bartlett, so that is working in Maddon's favor.

Working against Maddon is the fact that his pinch hitters were among the worst in all of Major League baseball. Managers are often applauded for picking the right guy off the bench at the right time, but the Rays had the second worst OPS by a pinch hitter in the American League.

The question then, how have people come to the conclusion that Maddon was the American Leagues uncontested Manager of the Year? If the Rays have an identical performance in 2009, will he again win the award, or will it go to a manager that takes his team from the scrap heap to a championship?

That is, is this award a reflection of a team 'over-achieving' in the eyes of the public, or is this an award based on actual management? Are experts so certain about the specific game plans, and managerial styles that they can conclude the exact value of a manager?

Take Terry Francona for example. The Sox were expected to win. The Sox have a roster that on paper, looks like one of a winner. The Sox spend like a winner. Lo and behold, the Red Sox are winners. Can we legitimately say that Francona has less to do with the Sox winning then Maddon had with the Rays winning?

The National League holds a similar story. Lou Pinella seems to be the easy choice. But weren't the Cubs expected to win this year? Didn't many experts pick the Cubs to be the best team in the National League?

My formula for picking a Manager of the Year in each division will be to calculate how many wins per dollar spent each manager contributed. This will not be how I draw my conclusion, it will simply provide me with a couple candidates. In addition to wins per dollar, I will also look at how much a team 'overachieved' (explanation to follow) as well as considering hurdles a manager had to over come.

The chart below ranks teams based on the average price of players (courtesy CBS Sportsline). The highlighted teams (Blue = American League, Red = National League) represents the top three. The sixth column, improperly titled 'wins per million' is actually the amount of money each team spent on a win. The final column utilizes Baseball Prospectus' 3rd order standings compared to a teams actual standings.
In the American League, the top three Managers are the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Joe Maddon from the Rays did the most with the least amount of money spent. However, this is a tricky statistic, as the Rays are a product of having a lot of very impressive youngsters. Nevertheless, putting up a victory at less the $500,000 is an impressive feat.

Ron Gardenhire and the Minnesota Twins posted the second highest amount of wins better then their third order standings suggest. The Twins also did such with the 4th lowest payroll in the American League.

While the Angels are one of the highest priced teams in the league, Mike Scocia also got the most value out of each of his teams' wins among franchises in the top 10 in payroll. What sticks out most with the Angels is that Scocia managed to grab an additional 16 wins then his team deserved according to BP's third Order Wins.

While it is impressive what Maddon did with his low payroll, it isn't as if he took a bunch of nobodies and turned them into gold. A player such as Evan Longoria is a star and while he is not being paid as such, the expectations are similarly as high. Maddon then, is my runner-up for AL Manager of the Year with Mike Scocia taking the award due to managing his team to an additional 16 wins better then expected.

The top three in the National League are Charlie Manuel from the Philadelphia Phillies, Cecil Cooper of the Houston Astros, and Fredi Gonzalez of the Florida Marlins.

The other Florida team managed to get the most wins for the least amount of money, absolutely demolishing the impressive figure the Rays posted. Unlike the Rays, the Marlins did so while exceeding their third order wins. Additionally, Gonzalez did not have the benefit of putting out a roster of extraordinarily talented youngsters.

Cecil Cooper and the Houston Astros had one of the most underrated seasons in baseball. A team, that despite being in the top half in team spending proved to be relatively efficient with the money they did spend. The biggest factor working in Cooper's favor is the fact that his team over-achieved by more then 10 wins during the 2008 season. Those 10 wins are substantial, in that they represent the difference between a team that still had a shot up until the trade deadline, and a team without a prayer.

The Phillies Charlie Manuel had similar success to Cecil Cooper. While expectations for the Phillies were higher then they were for the Astros, Manuel provided decent punch compared to the dollars spent. His 5.2 wins above third order standings also help his case.

However, they do not help his case to be the winner, nor the runner up. Those votes will go to Fredi Gonzalez and Cecil Cooper respectively. Gonzalez just did too much with too little to ignore.


While popular opinion has it that Maddon and Pinella are the best managers in their respective leagues, popular opinion does not have a fancy chart.

The OLIB's 2008 AL Cy Young

To this point in the post-season awards, there has been two obvious candidates for each award. The same holds true for the American League Cy Young Award which sees Cliff Lee and his miraculous turn-around of a season, up against Roy Halladay and his underrated 'horse'-like season.

The two pitchers are inseparable, and despite Lee leading Halladay in essentially every category, there is reason to question whether or not Lee is deserving to be rated ahead of Halladay.

Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus first proposed the idea of rating Halladay over Lee. His theory was that Halladay's schedule had been substantially more difficult then Lee's. This is something I had never truly considered prior to reading Sheehan's article, but clearly this is relavent information.

Sheehan writes,

Cliff Lee has made 28 starts this season, Roy Halladay 29. Of those, 13 are in-common starts: the A’s, Rays and Rangers twice, and the Angels, White Sox, Reds, Royals, Twins, Yankees and Mariners once. Those starts cancel out. Of the remaining starts, there seems to be a very wide gap in the calilber of competition, enough to at least mention. Of the 15 starts Cliff Lee does not have in common with Halladay, nine have come against teams in the bottom third in offense, as ranked by team EqA, and none have come against a team ranked in the top six.

Looking at it from the other direction, Halladay does not have a single not-in-common start against a team ranked below 18th in EqA. So of the 15 (in Halladay’s case, 16) not in common starts between the two, 60% of Lee’s have come against offenses worse than any of Halladay’s. Halladay also has four not-in-common starts (one against the Cubs, three against the Red Sox) better than any of Lee’s.

Wouldn't you agree that is substantial? Wouldn't that be like not adjusting a hitter's stats that were inflated by an extremely favorable hitting environment?

Sheehan continues,

Let me run the data this way, because I think it illustrates the point. The following numbers are the team EqA ranks for each not-in-common opponent, highest to lowest.

Halladay: 3, 4, 4, 4, 9, 9, 9, 11, 11, 14, 14, 14, 14, 17, 18, 18

Lee: 7, 7, 7, 12, 13, 13, 21, 22, 22, 25, 26, 27, 28, 28, 28

It helps if you read those numbers right to left. It’s clear from this data that Cliff Lee has seen a significantly inferior set of opponents than Halladay has.

The argument becomes substantial. However, individuals may slightly discredit it, by taking a lazy approach, looking at the 'similar opponents' and grouping them together. One writer, debated me at BDD using this lazy approach.

His theory was, for example, that 6 'common' starts are the same no matter who the common starts are. While anyone with a moderate amount of intelligence can understand that if one pitcher throws 5 games against the Yankees and 1 against the Royals it is vastly more difficult then 5 games against the Royals and 1 against the Yankees. This doesn't even account for the enormous deviations in hitter friendly environments that exists.

What that lazy analyst should have done, is the following:

Halladay faced the following teams in common:

• Boston 5 times
• Kansas City once
• Minnesota once
• New York Yankees 6 times
• Seattle once
• Tampa 5 times
• Texas once
  

Lee faced the same opponents:

• Once
• Five times
• Four times
• Once
• Twice
• Twice
• Twice
  

What he then should have done was calculate each teams runs per game:

• Boston Red Sox - 5.22
• Kansas City Royals - 4.27
• Minnesota Twins - 5.13
• New York Yankees - 4.87
• Seattle Mariners - 4.14
• Tampa Bay Rays - 4.78
• Texas Rangers - 5.56
  

The next step would have been to create a balance going one way or another. That is to say, Halladay faced Boston 5 times and Lee faced them once, thus, Halladay gets credit for 4 starts against a team with 5.22 runs per game. Similarly, Lee faced Minnesota 4 times and Halladay faced them once, thus, Lee gets credit for only 3 starts against a team with a 5.13 run per game.

The next step is to multiply the games played by the amount of runs per game. I separated Halladays starts from Lee's and found:

• Halladay faced 12 'similar' games against teams with a cumulative 4.96 runs per game,

• Lee faced 9 'similar' games against teams with a cumulative 4.69 runs per game.

That deviation is the difference between facing baseball's 7th best offensive team instead of baseball's 15th best offensive team. In other words, Halladay had a substantially more difficult 'similar opponents' schedule.

Thus, despite the writers assertion that Lee fared better then Halladay against similar opponents, the writer failed to discover that Lee had a substantially easier similar opponents schedule.

While Sheehan's analysis is excellent and provides quite the step towards arguing for Roy Halladay, his analysis assumes that Halladay was facing the best Red Sox lineup everytime he went out there. While my procedure takes a similar shortcut, we can utilize Baseball Prospectus' database to tell us who faced more difficult batters.

According to BP's "Opponent's Quality, On Base Plus Slugging Average (OQO) is the aggregate on base plus slugging average of all batters faced by a pitcher..." We can use this tool to figure out who regularly faced tougher opponents.

In the American League, among starters with at least 200 innings pitched during the 2008 season, Roy Halladay had the most difficult OQO of .766. Ranking last out of 15 pitchers was, guess who, Cliff Lee, posting an OQO of .735.

In other words, we're talking the difference in Felipe Lopez and Yunel Escobar. By show of hands, if you were to pick one of those hitters to face for every at bat of a season, which one would you take over the other?


While this certainly should not entirely discredit what Lee accomplished this season, it does go to show that one must utilize some perspective when selectiving the leagues best pitcher. It is because of this perspective that Cliff Lee is the inferior pitcher to Roy Halladay in the American League.

Brian Cashman, You Devil!

On afternoon of Free Agency, the New York Yankees completed a trade to replace Jason Giambi, acquiring Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox for Wilson Betemit (one of my favorite players), and Minor League pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Upon first impression, Brian Cashman looks like a genius and Kenny Williams looks like a goat. If you recall, Williams traded for Swisher just under a year ago. At this point, it appears obvious that Williams paid a lot more then he received for the slugger.

Let's look at what Williams received for Swisher first.

Wilson Betemit has power, nobody would argue that. He is still young enough to be seen as a player with potential. What he doesn't have are greater flaws then what he does possess. Betemit is poor at taking walks and great at striking out, not an excellent combination to have.

Betemit is also a capable fielder at essentially any position save catcher. While he is stretched at places, he can certainly field them on at least a temporary basis.

As an arbitration eligible player, Betemit should see a modest increase from his 2008 salary of a little over $1.1M. What this part of the trade boils down to is Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney for a utility infielder. While Betemit's still youthful enough to provide something offensively, he will have to beat out Josh Fields, or one of Chris Getz and Jayson Nix. Not an impossible feat, but one that is doubtful to provide anything beneficial.

The Yankees are also sending two pitching prospects, neither scoring very high on anayones radar, and lacking the youth of true high upside players. However, both have scouting projectability to be watched for the next year or two.

The eldest prospect being Jeff Marquez, a 24 year old pitcher that hasn't shown anything special throughout his professional career. Being a groundball pitcher and having an adequate walk rate, Marquez could fill an end of the rotation role. However, Marquez was relatively homer prone in Triple A this season. Possibly this was due to poor fortune, or maybe Marquez was at a level where his mistakes would go over the fences.

Entering last year, Minor League Balls' John Sickels rated Marquez as the 14th best prospect in a weak Yankees system. He was given a C+ grade, which I imagine had much to do with his age, then performance.

Baseball America had Marquez rated as the organizations number seven prospect. While a more promising ranking, BA asserts that there is not much outside of the top 5 in this organization, although the Yankees were taking steps.

In consideration of this, Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein placed Marquez as a just missed player. While there are players that have gone under the radar, and largely ignored as prospects onto bigger and better things, it's tough to see that happening with Marquez.

22 year old Jhonny Nunez, the one time Washington Nationals prospect, rounds out the players received from the Yankees. Nunez was received from the Nationals for glove-first short stop Alberto Gonzalez. In what was a nice trade at the time for the Yankees, is now much more attractive.

Nunez struggled in high A ball with the Nationals, although he pitched better then his 5.22 ERA would lead one to believe. Once Nunez moved to double A, fly balls began to stay in the park, and Nunez's strong strikeout and adequate walk numbers remained.

One could propose the idea that it was Nunez's conversion to reliever which had him take a major step this season. Personally, I'd like to see him in the rotation at double A to start the 2009 season. If it is a matter of getting weaker as the game wears on, then a move to the bullpen won't be the worst thing.

I find it interesting that despite being in a weak Nationals system, only Sickels had Nunez listed on his top prospects list. Albeit, Nunez was fairly low on his radar, ranking as a C+ prospect and #18 out of 20. It wouldn't surprise me to see Nunez be bumped up everyone's list this year, although cracking the top 10 may still be a stretch.

Sending a utility infielder, an at best #4/5 starter, and a likely Major League reliever in exchange for a hitter of Nick Swisher's talent is what could be referred to as a bargain, a steal, an improper exchange of valuables.

Swisher will be 28 years old as of Opening Day, and entering the prime of what has already been a nice career. While 2008 was certainly a disappointment for Swish, it also marked the worst season of his career, one with uncharacteristically low batted ball figures. It can be expected that Swisher will rebound in 2009 and hit at least to the levels of his career average (.800+ OPS).

At an average of close to $8M a year for the next four seasons, Swisher is an absolute bargain. One hot season and the Yankees could certainly flip him for some high level prospects. However, if the Yankees choose to hold onto Swisher through the duration of his career-and the duration of his prime years-the annual savings will allow them to overspend in other areas, even moreso then they already do.

As if Swisher was not enough, Cashman had Williams throw-in Kanekoa Texeira. In terms of 'throw-ins' go, this is as good as it gets. In fact, Texeira has as good of a chance at being a quality Major League contributor as eitherMarquez and Nunez.

Armed with an arsenal of fastball, change-up, and what was considered the best slider in the White Sox organization, Texeira is a reliever that has had success at every level of the minors since being drafted in the 22nd round of the 2006 draft. Texeira's performance to date shows that he very well could be ready for the Majors immediately.

While it is unlikely that he starts the 2009 season on the big league club, an eventual call-up is not out of the question. It also seems reasonable to expect Yankees fans to deem him the heir to Mariano Rivera. Unjustified as it may be the Yankees swiped a very good prospect here.


This is a very confusing trade and one that certainly has to be given to the Yankees. The White Sox are not a small market club, so it isn't as if they could utilize the salary flexibility and this was more of a cash dump. In fact, the ChiSox may have been better off eating some of Swisher's salary and then shopping him.

Whatever the reason, there is little doubt that the White Sox took a major step back from the day before they acquired Nick Swisher to today. They sent the A's three very highly coveted youngsters and swapped that product for three end of the roster players.

Worse yet, while Kenny Williams has a 'surplus' today, this is the last year of Jim Thome's contract. Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye are not getting any younger. Josh Fields isn't going to get any better repeating triple A for the forth season. REGRET, is soon to be spelt S-W-I-S-H-E-R in the South Side of Chicago.

For the winner of this deal, it appears unlikely they will go after Mark Teixeira, or any other top hitter via free agency this off-season. While Teixeira would be an obvious upgrade over Swisher, the teams rumored to be interested in the first basemen should drive up his price making him less valuable. That being said, the Yankees can concentrate on acquiring pitching and spending like, well, like the Yankees.


I will discuss the Cubs-Marlins trade tomorrow.

2008 BBWAA American League Cy Young

I was reading a comment by Pete Toms which asked the question, "why do we care about the awards given by the BBWAA?" This is a very valid question.

Despite spending a lot of time reading about baseball, I rarely, if ever, will closely read a baseball column in the newspaper. If I am somewhere that happens to have a Toronto newspaper handy, I will eventually make it to the baseball portion of the sports section. But that is a rarity, maybe once a week.

So why do we care?

I suppose it is a matter of integrity. The winners of these awards will be immortalized in baseball history. The average fan will forever know that Tim Lincecum was the "best" pitcher in the National League during the 2008 season. But that same fan shouldn't have to personally evaluate the performance of each pitcher in the National League during that season to figure out who was the second best.

That is, since the BBWAA do not properly evaluate the players merits, if the average baseball fan wants to know, for example, who the top three pitchers were, they will have to do their own homework. This is due to the fact that the BBWAA simply cannot be trusted. The writers can make anyone they choose into stars, and slander any player that doesn't provide a good interview.

It is because of that desire to have a personal relationship with the players, that 'press' writers should stand off from voting for the post-season awards. Let them paint their pictures of the play on the field, but let the analysts do their jobs.


The reason for the tangent is in response to the BBWAA's American League Cy Young voting. While the voters did not swing and miss to the extent of their National League brethren, there was a great deal of voters who simply do not get it.

Cliff Lee won the award, and while there is certainly an argument supporting his candidacy, there is also an argument against it. I'm not going to lose any sleep over this selection, although I would have taken the runner-up, Roy Halladay (explanation tomorrow). Rounding out those given votes were Francisco Rodriguez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mariano Rivera, Mike Mussina, and Ervin Santana.

I spend a lot of time harping on the BBWAA, and this award does not come away unscathed. Here are cases against the BBWAA based solely on the American League Cy Young ballots for the 2008 season. Put in other terms, if the writers credibility were to be up for trial, this would be one of the areas they could be attacked.

Case #1

Roy Halladay. As I mentioned, not picking Halladay as the winner is fine. What isn't fine is the 3 writers who left Doc off of their ballots altogether. The only possible excuse I could think up for these 3 writers, is that they felt so stupid for not naming Halladay as the 2nd best pitcher, that they simply left him off altogether.

There is a legitimate argument that Halladay was the best pitcher in the American League. That 9 writers felt he wasn't in the top 2 is embarrassing and evidence to the lack of understanding these writer have.

Case #2

Francisco Rodriguez. Other then saves, what category did Rodriguez lead American League relievers in? I'm not willing to look hard enough to find that category, but I will list some important ones that he trailed his leaguemates in.

• Save Percentage: KRod's 89% is outstanding, Rivera's 97.5% happens to be better. So too was Jensen Lewis' 93% rounding out the three American League relievers with 10 or more saves.
• Win Probability Added: Another area where Rodriguez had a fine season, albeit, not as fine as Rivera, Joakim Soria, and Bobby Jenks.
• Pitching Runs Created: Rodriguez wasn't even the best reliever on his team in this aspect. He trailed closers Rivera, Joe Nathan, and Sora.
• Win Shares Above Bench: Probably the most interesting stat to utilize here, and one that arguably convinced the Angels to let Rodriguez walk in Free Agency. KRod is tied as the third best closer in this category, behind Rivera and Soria, tied with Jonathan Papelbon and Nathan. Oh, KRod is also behind teammate (and rookie) Jose Arredondo.
• Adjusted Runs Prevented from Scoring: A key stat for relievers, not so key for closers specifically, but important nonetheless. For this category, Rodriguez ranks behind top closers Rivera, Nathan, Soria, Papelbon, and Jenks.
• Expected Wins Added Over a Replacement Level Pitcher: KRod finishes second in this category, behind Rivera.
• Value Over Replacement Player: Rivera, Nathan, and Soria all rate higher then Rodriguez here. Papelbon and Jenks trail Rodriguez by a marginal amount.

That is seven stats where Rodriguez trails Rivera in every single one, not to mention trailing Soria and Nathan in nearly every one. Seven stats where on average, Rodriguez compares very closely with Papelbon and Jenks-great closers in their own right, by Cy Young candidates?

Don't get me wrong, Rodriguez had a very strong season. Not only do closers have the pressure of shutting the door on some close games, but he was also dealing with the spotlight of breaking Bobby Thigpen's 18 year old record.

However, his performance was vastly inferior to Mariano Rivera's, and there is even an argument for a handful of other closers, even relievers, who performed at a higher level then Rodriguez. To hand top 3 votes to a player because of one category is ridiculous.


These are two major cases against the credibility of the BBWAA. Obviously the organization as a whole is not lacking credibility, but there are a good amount of writers whom should be scrapped from the voting process. Otherwise, baseball's post-season awards and the hall-of-fame will lose much of it's value.

I would truly like to see a major corporate sponsor step up, and put together a legitimate vote. One where the voters are educated analysts. One where home team biases are eliminated through facts and information-not lead stories.

That is, imagine a situation where some of baseball's brightest minds, Bill James, Rob Neyer, Joe Sheehan, I'll even give Ken Rosenthal a vote, and others. Couple this with "Pepsi presents..." and enough people would at least hear about this award to eventually legitimize it.

Dream on, dreamer...

2008 BBWAA National League Cy Young

"I started a joke, which started the whole world crying, but I didn't see that the joke was on me"

It's official, any sliver of credibility the BBWAA owned has been eliminated. It has been ripped to shreds, stamped on, torched, and discarded. While there is an argument to be made that this occurred a very long time ago, the writers have certainly outdone themselves this time.

The National League Cy Young should have come down to two pitchers; Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana. There is an argument that works in the favor of both pitchers. Where Lincecum was marginally more valuable-beating out Santana in WPA, Win Shares, PRC, and SNLVAR-Santana had a substantially more difficult schedule. While Lincecum is my choice, I can respect an individual who makes an intelligent and logical claim for Johan.

What I can't respect is the individual who calls for Brandon Webb to be the best pitcher in the National League. In fact, there is a legitimate argument against Webb being the best pitcher on his own team.

The BBWAA, however, found a way to further discredit the merits of post-season awards. Maybe they did so intentionally. Maybe their voting was out of protest. For whatever reason, we are stuck with a system that simplay has no value to the baseball world.

Today, the 2008 National League Cy Young Award winner was nominated. It was justly given to Tim Lincecum. While Lincecum was rewarded with 23 of 32 first place votes, for some strange reason four writers felt that Brandon Webb was the superior pitcher-hopefully we can get to the bottom of this.

Worse yet, there is a writer who left Lincecum off his ballot altogether. This only strikes a chord with me because there is one writer out of 32 who felt this way. One!

Being someone who traditionally has some obscure ways of drawing conclusions, and a skewed perspective of logic, I typically cannot argue with one person thinking outside the box. The problem is, Lincecum was clearly one of the top two pitchers in the National League this year. If he wasn't in the top two, there is no way he could justly be left off a ballot altogether. In fact, I am eager to hear what sort of skewed logic this writer came to.


While Lincecum winning the award is an impressive accomplishment, how much of it can Lincecum truly feel satisfied with, when the rest of the voting is a joke?

Brandon Webb, while an outstanding pitcher, he's probably one of the top 5 pitchers whom I would build a team around. However, he did not have the best statistical season of any other pitcher in the National League to warrant the first place votes he received. In fact, between him, Santana, Lincecum, Ryan Dempster, and Cole Hamels, he clearly had the worst statistical season of the bunch.

Thus, handing him second place votes is as much of a joke as the first place votes were (we can assume two of the four first place votes came from Arizona writers, the other two could have come from the morons who voted for Edinson Volquez for Rookie of the Year despite not being eligible for the award).

It is absolutely pathetic that Webb received runner-up votes over Johan Santana. What makes it so pathetic is the fact that the voters are going to turn to Webb's wins and winning percentage as evidence to his superiority.

I'm glad that despite all the information proving that wins and winning percentage are essentially useless statistics for pitchers there are still writers giving pitchers credit for them. I won't even go into the fact that Webb trailed Santana in every other meaningful statistic, but I think you get the point, this is embarrassing.

But let's put this into an analogy. By voting for Webb over Santana based soley on wins and winning percentage, the BBWAA are invariably handing this award to the player PLUS his team. That is, what if Webb received 2 or 3 fewer runs of support a game? Would that mean he pitched any worse?

What can we then say the Cy Young is based on. Value? If that is the case, then who was more valuable then CC Sabathia and Brad Lidge?


I think we can safely predict the American League Cy Young winner now, sorry Drunk Jays Fans.

The OLIB's 2008 NL Cy Young

In similar fashion to my American League Rookie of the Year pick, the NL Cy Young went from no-brainer, to borderline toss-up. In what was an open and shut case for Tim Lincecum, turned to a two horse race with him and Johan Santana. An impressive second half by Santana, fueled by an outstanding August/September, closed the gap that Lincecum created.

This is not to say that Lincecum fell apart in the second half, rather, to give Santana his due for an outstanding stretch run.

There was never really a question who the winner and runner-up for this award would be, as I selected Lincecum #1 and Santana #2. Where the question is raised occurs with the third best start in the National League. With 4 or 5 legitimate contenders, it took a variety of statistics to come to a conclusion of who the head of the rest of the pack would be.

Here is what I wrote for the BDD writer picks,

When I first sat down to make my picks, I wasn’t even going to look into the numbers. I figured I knew the story and didn’t need any convincing. While my opinion didn’t change after I eventually looked at the numbers, it became surprisingly close after looking at VORP, WPA, WS, PRC, and SNLVAR. Lincecum came away on top, with Santana finishing second, and fellow Canadian Ryan Dempster completing his full circle surprise season.

I’m not shocked that Dempster isn’t getting more play in the upcoming days of Free Agency, but I am shocked that he isn’t getting much love from writers on the Cy Young ballot.

I will be incredibly shocked if Dempster tops Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Cole Hamels, and Edinson Volquez despite being substantially more qualified. In fact, half-season wonders CC Sabathia and Rich Harden are likely to get just as much respect as Dempster.

Which leads to an interesting dilemma-what is the Cy Young award? Is it for the leagues best pitcher, or for the leagues most valuable pitcher? In fact, aren't these two things one in the same?

That is, could any of the aforementioned full season National League pitchers have replaced Harden and specifically, Sabathia? If the answer is no, then how can another pitcher be tabbed as better? Worse yet, this adds Brad Lidge to what was supposed to be a fairly straight forward discussion.


It is fortunate for Tim Lincecum that Johan Santana had such brutal bullpen support. Had the Mets simply been 'OK' at holding leads, Santana would have added an extra couple of wins and the Mets certainly would have found themselves in the playoffs. It would be that combination of meaningless statistics that would encourage the BBWAA to give this award to Santana.

That didn't happen, and despite what will be a fairly tight competition, the award will go to the appropriate pitcher.

Similarly, the runner-up will go to the appropriate pitcher, being Santana. Many anticipated this to be Santana's award to lose entering the season. While he didn't hurt his case, Lincecum was simply the superior pitcher and the BBWAA won't screw this one up.

Where it gets interesting is the area that I mentioned, from the third best pitcher in the National League, down to the tenth. I can't see a scenario where Lincecum and Santana don't receive the top two votes from any of the writers, however I also did not envision a scenario where Joey Votto would receive a vote over Geovanny Soto.

That being said, for argument's sake I'll stick with Lincecum and Santana collecting all of the top two votes, with a 32 writer toss-up among third place ballots. Clearly Dempster should take third place, but I imagine it will go to Sabathia or Lidge. It won't be justified, but people won't be overly disappointed.

As fans, we are fortunate that the writers must submit their ballots prior to the start of the playoffs. If not, Cole Hamel's miraculous post-season performance may have been enough to put him into the Lincecum-Santana discussion.

Nationals and Marlins Join the Trade Party

Apparently there was some action at the General Manager's meetings last week. With the news that the Athletics and Rockies are on the verge of completing a deal that will involve Matt Holliday, the Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins have agreed to a deal.

The deal will have the Washington Nationals acquire fiery lefty Scott Olsen, and left fielder Josh Willingham from the Florida Marlins for Emilio Bonifacio and one or two minor leaguers, likely to be pitcher PJ Dean and infielder Jake Smolinski.

Upon first impression, this looks like a win for the Washington Nationals, however I've never been one to call a trade in under 100 words. Let's begin with what the Nationals received:

At the point, the acquistion of Josh Willingham has got to be of secondary concern for the Nationals. That is, of course, assuming that Willingham cannot move back behind the plate (he has played behind the plate in 15 games at the Major League level). Even still, Willingham would not be much of an upgrade over Jesus Flores, giving the Nationals little reason to move him behind the plate.

This is also assuming that Nick Johnson, Wily Mo Pena, and Austin Kearns all remain with the team. The acquisition of Willingham certainly muddies this situation-as well as my WWOD.

Either way, Willingham is a fine player, and is under control for the next 3 seasons-although he is in for a pay raise, he will still be affordable.

The biggest piece of this trade for the Nationals is Scott Olsen.

Olsen has taken a substantial step back from his promising rookie season in 2006. While Olsen's strikeout rate regressed from a strong 8.27 to 5.04, his walk rate has gone from bad (3.74) to terrible (4.33) to good (3.08).

However, Olsen is young enough to continue to improve his walk rate, while potentially taking steps with his strikeout rate.

What is worrisome is the fact that Olsen's velocity dropped a fair amount this season. Granted, if a drop in velocity means throwing more strikes, it is certainly a justified adjustment.

The most valuable part of Olsen is that he is an extremely durable pitcher, having pitched in 31 or more games each of his 3 seasons in the majors. In addition to this, Olsen is entering his first arbitration season and should be affordable for the Nationals as they look to put together a Major League roster-something that the 2008 team hardly resembled.

In exchange for Olsen and Willingham, the Marlins receive salary relief-something they have always been interested in acquiring, and three young players.

The first of which, and only one of the three to be on the Major League roster before the year 2011, Emilio Bonifacio. I have writen at length about Bonifacio, and will not repeat everything that I had said in the past.

The short and sweet version; Bonifacio is a burner who lacks plate discipline. He is young enough to develope, but his ceiling is certainly Luis Castillo. If Bonifacio developes into Castillo, that would be great, but chances are he is a utility player at best, albeit a cheap one.

What the acquisition of Bonifacio does do, however, is begin the discussion of where and when Dan Uggla will be traded. After 3 straight seasons of 27 or more home runs, Uggla, entering his first year of arbitration, is bound to receive a major pay increase. It wouldn't come as a surprise for him to be making over $5M in 2009, leading to a larger increase for the 2010 season, and another for the 2011 season. In other words, he has more then played his way out of Florida's price-range and will certainly be moved at some point this offseason.

The Marlins are also acquiring 20 year old right handed pitcher PJ Dean. While Dean is at least three seasons from the Majors, his showing this year in the New York Penn League certainly did enough to put him on the prospect radar. At 6'3", Dean has the desired frame of a starting pitcher, and his early career numbers are favorable, but he is still a long ways away.

Equally as raw is the third player the Marlins are set to acquire, 19 year old middle infielder Jake Smolinski. Smolinski transitioned well from the outfield to second base, but in his second season of professional baseball, has begun to disappoint with his bat.

However, Jacob has an advanced approach at the plate, working the count well with quick hands.

The issue with Smolinski, is that he doesn't have a true position to play. Despite surprising many with his play at second base this season, his lack of athleticism will not enable him to excel at that position. Because he only a mediocre athlete, Smolinski is limited to playing in left field, if a move to the outfield is required.

The problem then is that Smolinski does not provide the pop that is traditionally expected from a corner outfielder. His development as a fielder and hitter will be interesting to watch.


While the Nationals won this deal, the Marlins did not really lose it. I am surprised that if the Marlins were actively shopping either player, that they were not capable of obtaining more. Which leads me to belief that the players they did acquire are ones that they were obviously interested in. When that is the case, it is impossible to call the team a loser.

The biggest positive to take from this move, is a payroll savings of $4M+ for the 2009 season. Another, is the evident trade of Dan Uggla, which will provide even more in salary relief.

The Bizzaro A's

The Oakland Athletics have reportedly agreed to acquire Matt Holliday from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Carlos Gonzalez, Houston Street, and Greg Smith. The deal has yet to be finalized, and there certainly could be changes, but for now the Athletics are the winners in this deal. The Rockies themselves are not necessarily 'losers', this is simply because they did not accept the rumored trade with the Cardinals-the trade where Ryan Ludwick would have been the center-piece.

Matt Holliday surprised me a lot this season, by removing the stigma that his stats were artificially inflated by Coors Field. While it is poor analysis to simply look at his home and away splits, as 71% of Holliday's road games are played in the pitcher friendly environments of PETCO, AT&T, and Dodger's Stadium, one can guage the type of hitter that Holliday is away from Coors Field.

At least one could.

Entering this season Holliday had a Coors Field OPS of 1.074 and a road OPS of .793. However, Holliday had an EQA of just under .300 (league average being .260). Thus, while the OPS shows that Holliday's offensive statistics were inflated by Coors Field, his road OPS was unjustly deflated.

This is where I see Billy Beane out-analyzing his peers. Where everyone sees a major statistical deviation, Beane sees the results of a poor sample size.

That is, Holliday's EQA shows that he is a solid, to strong all around hitter.

Another area to take note of is the fact that Holliday is improving as a hitter. While he has always been a spectacular hitter at Coors Field, Holliday has begun to turn into a solid hitter on the road-not even taking into account park adjusted factors which see the majority of Holliday's road games in pitcher friendly environments.

Taking a look at the last two seasons away from Coors Field, we see that Holliday has posted the following lines:

• 2007 - .301/.374/.485
• 2008 - .308/.405/.486

While a sub-.900 OPS is not going to get anyone tabbed as World Class Superstar, it certainly is nothing to scoff at. Especially when one considers that the Major League average left fielder posted the following line:

• 2007 - .276/.346/.452
• 2008 - .269/.343/.442

Also, keep in mind that those stats are inflated by having Holliday's Coor's Field numbers involved. Taking that away would drop that .798 OPS a few points.

Furthermore, consider that on average players are worse away from their home ballpark. For whatever reason, hitters simply do not perform at the same level on the road as they do at home.

All that being said, this appears to be a fairly ingenious move by Beane. Consider first, the prospects and contract commitments that Miguel Cabrera cost the Detroit Tigers around this time last year. The Tigers sent Florida two very highly regarded prospects in Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin-both of whom have All-Star written all over them. Emptying their prospect cupboard to bring aboard a player of Cabrera's talent is not a terrible idea, but being forced into the addition of Dontrelle Willis does begin to sting a little.

While Holliday did not come to the A's for free, his cost is a fraction of what Cabrera cost the Tigers. Which is saying a lot, because the three players the Athletics gave up are all nice players, but not one can hold a candle to Miller or Maybin.

The key to the trade looks to be Carlos Gonzalez. Many are looking at Gonzalez as a failed prospect, an outfielder who needs more time in the minors. To this, I must disagree. While Gonzalez did not tear the cover off the ball in his half season with the A's, he also was not terribly over-matched, despite being 22 years old and having fewer then 250 at bats above double-A.

Gonzalez is a fine player, and an interesting piece for the Rockies to plop in their outfield for the foreseeable future. While he has a long way to go before becoming what the A's expected of him when they acquired him last off-season, hitting in Coors Field, in the weaker National League will not hurt.

Moving Houston Street was a very impressive move by Billy Beane. Many will say that Street tilts the scale in the Rockies favor. However, I must question the merits of said remark. Consider that Street is arbitration eligible and presumably will make more then the $3.3M he earned in 2008. I'm thinking at least $4M. While this is not to be considered an overpriced amount, Street was likely to be the third or forth best reliever on the A's team (behind Devine, Casilla, and Ziegler), despite being the highest paid.

Another factor to consider is the value of relievers on the trade market. The first example is with the Rockies Brian Fuentes, whom the Rockies saw more value in keeping around as a likely type-A free agent, then moving for prospects. The second example, current Diamondbacks reliever Jon Rauch, who was acquired for Emilio Bonifacio.

In other words, that the A's are free from Street's salary was enough value for the club. That is not to say the Rockies did not do well in acquiring Street, rather, it is to suggest that the A's weren't going to get much for Street anyways. If one were to exchange Street's name for Emilio Bonifacio in this trade, doesn't it suddenly look much more attractive?

The last player proposed in this deal is left handed soft-tosser Gregory Smith. Smith was dependable for the Athletics during the 2008 season, however, Smith performed over his head and there was a good chance he wouldn't make it out of Spring Training with the big league club anyways.

As a fly ball pitcher that allows a lot of free passes, it is beyond me why the Rockies included Smith in this trade. But as a far as cheap and relatively durable left handed starter go, he is a fine option-just fine though, nothing more, nothing less.


It is the trades that Beane has made over the last year that has allowed him to make a move like this. Those trades, which brought aboard predominantly 'OK' prospects, made it easy for Beane to make this deal. Because the players Beane moved are simply 'OK', it wasn't as if he was hurting the short, nor long term value of his team.

What he did do, however, is yet to be seen. That is to say, Beane is not handcuffed to Holliday in any way, shape, or form. Holliday, however, is a bat that a team can build around-although presumably out of the A's price range. The true value of Holliday would never be achieved at Coors Field as GM's would constantly assert that his value is inflated by the ballpark.

What Beane did, however, is speed up that assessment. If his hunch is correct, and Holliday was not as much of a product of his home park as most would suggest, he increased the already high value of the slugger.

Because of this, I believe Beane will flip Holliday by the 2009 trade deadline and turn a profit. That is, he will net more then what he gave up.

2008 BBWAA Rookie of the Year Picks (AL & NL)

The ballots are officially in and the American and National League Rookie of the Year awards have been provided. In the American League, it is Evan Longoria, and Geovanny Soto who takes the cake in the National League.

These picks were to be expected, neither coming as a surprise to anyone. However, the BBWAA are not getting off easy here, as they did botch part of the voting.

Evan Longoria won the American League's award as an unanimous choice, collecting each of the 28 first place votes. Longoria, as the linked article states, was the only player to show up on each of the 28 ballots-which is part surprising, part disgusting.

The most second place ballots went to the Chicago White Sox infielder Alexei Ramirez. Certainly Ramirez is worthy of being on ones AL Rookie of the Year ballot, however, he clearly was not the second best rookie in the American League. Finishing third in VORP is support for that.

Worse yet, Jacoby "I fell off the table" Ellsbury, took third place. This clearly has more to do with Ellsbury being a Red Sox then it does with his actual statistical line. Keep in mind, Ellsbury essentially lost his starting job down the stretch-and entirely in the playoffs. According to Baseball Prospectus' VORP statistic, Ellsbury rated as the 6th best rookie position player in the American League. In other words, he was hardly worthy of being on anyones ballot, let alone being the third highest voted rookie.

However, the Ellsbury pick is not even the most embarrassing issue presented here. That honor belongs to the 23 writers who left Mike Aviles off their ballots altogether. To hear the explanation of any of these writers is assured to be one of the bigger jokes in recent baseball writing. There really is not an explanation for taking Ellsbury over Aviles, but even giving those 5 writers a mulligan, we still had far too many of baseballs journalists (experts in their field) ignoring the rookie that could have won the award, and at the very worst, should have finished in the top 3.


The National League, at first glance, also managed to get things right. Except, wait...What?!? Somebody actually thought that Joey Votto's 2008 season was superior to Geovanny Soto. WHO?!?

Soto eclipsed Votto in every win and value stat available. In fact, it is hardly even close in most cases. Even if we ignore position, Soto was a vastly superior first year player.


The BBWAA again proved why they have little to no credibility. While the writers did manage to pick the proper winners, the widespread failures to accurately rate the players ruins the overall value of this award. How can Evan Longoria truly feel proud of this award when the voting is so inaccurate?

Once the writers make their individual picks known, I will add further reflection. For now, I am going to assume that the writers simply forgot Mike Aviles played. However, I'm certain this mulligan will be waived once we read comments such as 'Jacoby Ellsbury stole so many bases and played for a winning team'.

Disgusting!

2008 American and National League Rookie of the Year

For some strange reason, the BBWAA decide that the Rookie of the Year awards are the least important of all the post-season awards. Given that the awards are presented together, on the first day of the awards season, rather then on individual days, as is the case with the other player awards.

In any event, the American and National League Rookie of the Year award will be presented tomorrow, and as the first post-season awards post, I will explain how things will play out here.

First, I will re-provide my top 3 candidates for each award (5 for MVP). Recalling back to my 2007 Awards,

When selecting who will win the awards, I take into account several factors. The first, is how a player performs in respect to their position. For the record, I am not going to pick a player who performed at a high level at a brutal position, but wasn't even in the top 5 or 10 in 'win' stats.

The second criteria is 'Win' stats? The Hardball Times owns a stat for this, as does Baseball Prospectus; called Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB) and Value over Replacement Player (VORP) respectively. I will reference these stats in and out of my writings, for the most part, utilizing both.

Next, I will look at exceptional play of a player. A streak, a record, or really something they did on an individual level to lift the team to higher levels. That is not to say a player from a losing team can not win an award, although admittedly, those players are at a slight disadvantage.

In addition to the aforementioned criteria, I will also include fielding, which WSAB touches on. While Adam Everett is not going to get the nod over David Ortiz, it is something to be considered at a certain level.

Another factor to consider, and one I pointed out at the end of the regular season, is a players value relative to his team. To the BBWAA, a player on a playoff caliber team is rewarded because he helped his team get over the hump. But how often is it the play of a single player that pushed a team into the playoffs? How few players are not interchangeable with another at the same position?

I'm thinking specifically of Dustin Pedroia here. Would the Red Sox be that much worse off had Ian Kinsler been their everyday second basemen?

In addition to this, we've all heard the speculation that a players play is affected based on the players around him, how about adding in a winning clubhouse? Or playing in games that matter? Fact is, it's as easy to argue that a player on a playoff caliber team was positively influenced by his surrounding cast as it is to argue that the specific player is the reason the team is as good as it is.

The second aspect of these posts will be to predict who the BBWAA will pick as their award winner. I will provide some evidence, however the majority of the reflection will occur once the awards are provided.


A couple weeks ago, I posted my AL and NL Rookie Picks as a part of a poll held at Baseball Digest Daily. Here is further analysis of those picks:

American League

At first look, Evan Longoria appears to be the clear cut favorite for AL ROY. He hit in the heart of the order for the eventual American League champions. However, upon further inspection, things begin to tighten between he and Mike Aviles.

The major argument supporting Aviles is his production relative to position. That is, Aviles' .833 OPS was over 140 points higher then the American League average production from a short stop. What makes this 140 that much more valuable is the fact that Aviles is arguably the best fielding short stop in the American League.

By comparison, third base is a substantially more productive position, where the AL average OPS is nearly 80 points higher then that of the league's average for shortstop.

Longoria, while not as superior relative to league average, still posted an OPS nearly 120 points higher then American League average. Thus, the -20 points in league average OPS that Longoria provided compared to Aviles is not significant enough to discredit the +40 points in OPS that Longoria holds over Aviles heads up.

While the fielding is still an issue to be considered, that Longoria was superior to Aviles in 3 of 5 win and value categories is reason for me to hand this award to Longoria. The following table provides the categories utilized and where one player outperformed the other:

To me, the Rookie of the Year in the American League is a two horse race. I gave my third place vote to Brad Ziegler. Ziegler's season was nothing short of phenomenal. He took over as the closer in Oakland, and despite having a low strikeout rate, coupled with a brutal strikeout to walk ratio, Ziegler managed to avoid allowing runs.

Despite a legitimate argument existing for Mike Aviles to win the ROY award, it will come as no surprise to me if he isn't even in the American League's top five among the BBWAA. With players such as Jacoby Ellsbury and Alexei Ramirez providing writer friendly statistics, such as home runs, stolen bases, and playing on playoff caliber teams, it isn't difficult to imagine Aviles being left off of many writers ballots.

Considering that two of seven BDD writers left Aviles off of their top three ballot altogether, seeing Aviles on the outside of the top five-while unjustifiable-is something I expect.

Here's how I anticipate the BBWAA writers to screw this thing up:

1. Evan Longoria - Has all the things voters look for,
2. Alexei Ramirez - Flashy, and on a playoff team,
3. Jacoby Ellsbury - Broke team record for steals by a rookie,
4. Joba Chamberlain - If healthy, could have ran away with this award, and
   
5. Denard Span - There actually isn't any rationale for him in the top 7 or 8, so he's a perfect pick for the BBWAA.

With Brad Ziegler, Armando Galarraga, Chris Davis, as well as homer picks such as Ben Francisco, and Justin Masterson, there is a chance that Aviles falls out of the top 10.

National League

By not having a substantial second half swoon, Geovanny Soto made it easy for voters to get this one right. There really is not any other player that a writer could legitimately argue for over Soto, and if a writer did in fact try to, there is an argument for that writer to lose their BBWAA membership.

Where is gets interesting is with the next 2-4 spots. In fact, by having such a solid season, Soto actually ruined what would have been a very exciting NL ROY ballot. With Joey Votto, Jair Jurrjens, Hiroki Kuroda, Kosuke Fukudome, among others, there is not another clear cut next in line.

I decided to put Votto as the second best rookie from the 2008 season in the National League. Admittedly, it is because Votto is Canadian, but statistically, I can back this argument up through utilizing Baseball Prospectus' VORP measure, where Votto puts up a mark of 34.0 to Jurrjens' 33.0. In other words, it is a toss-up.


As I previously mentioned, there are specific stats which the BBWAA prefer. One of those stats, how the players team performed. Because of this, Fukudome and Kuroda will receive an unnecessary amount of votes, however I don't feel they will crack the top 3.

The BBWAA will get this one right and take the following top 5:

1. Geovanny Soto - No more obvious of a pick league-wide,
2. Jair Jurrjens - Not missing 'significant' time helps his case,
3. Joey Votto - If the season was another month or two, he eclipses Soto,
4. Hiroki Kuroda - Not really a rookie, but the BBWAA has never cared, so why start now? and,
5. Jay Bruce - A hot start coupled with improvement during the second half, those are stats, right?

As was the case with the Gold Gloves, I will post the actual results as they become public. Reactions and reflections will also be provided, so stay tuned for those.

2008 American League Gold Gloves

ESPNews released the AL Gold Gloves this afternoon, with the managers and coaches doing their best to not disappoint. If anyone questioned the credibility of this award, they have a perfect amount of fuel now.

C - Joe Mauer

This is a fine pick, but not one that I would spend time debating anyways. Mauer is very athletic, so it doesn't surprise me that he would be one of the top defensive catchers. What bothers me, is that during ESPNews' presentation, they kept harping on Mauer winning the AL batting title.

1B - Carlos Pena

This one is fine, although I imagine the difference has to do with Pena's bat. That said, I have no problem if the voters are using hitting as a tie breaker. Although I would take a look at team fielding first.

That is, consider what a top fielder can do to the players around him. Adding a top defensive short stop can allow a third basemen to shade the left field line a little more.

2B - Dustin Pedroia

Pedroia winning this award must signal something. Either the total and utter disregard for defensive measures, or Pedroia not winning the American League MVP. While one shouldn't have an affect on another, it does. Pedroia doesn't deserve to be in the top two, despite being a pretty good fielder.

As Sheehan stated yesterday, this is an award that is based on looks. How many times was Mark Ellis on National Television? How many times, during a Sox broadcast are the cameras focused on Pedroia? This award makes sense from that point of view.

3B - Adrian Beltre

Similar to the Pena selection, this one is fine. Beltre makes some careless mistakes, but he also gets to some balls that no other third basemen should.

SS - Michael Young

This isn't as terrible as the Pedroia selection, although it is close! But in a different way. Where Ellis was the obvious choice for the second base award, Pedroia is a solid fielder. Young, on the other hand is terrible! He does, however, benefit from playing a position where there isn't a clear cut winner-well, an obvious clear cut winner.

The fact remains that the Rangers would prefer to not have Young playing short stop for the foreseeable future. However, his bat has slipped so much that it would hurt more to have him as a league average fielding third basemen as the offensive expectations are much higher then they are at short.

The silver lining, at least Derek Jeter didn't win.

LF - Grady Sizemore

This is where the system is entirely flawed. If Sizemore was a left fielder, he would presumably win this award. However, he isn't. The same way that Francisco Rodriguez isn't a starting pitcher, and subsequently does not qualify for any pitching titles.

That said, it is disappointing that Sizemore is listed as the worst of the Gold Glove outfielders, despite obviously being the best.

CF - Torri Hunter

Terrible. Absolutely terrible. The problem is, Hunter is a pretty good fielder. But handing him this award based on reputation and a 'perfect fielding percentage' (really-impressive, but who cares) adds reason to disregard the Gold Gloves altogether.

Oh, and the fact that 2008's best defensive outfielder was clearly Carlos Gomez, who replaced Hunter. This is arguably the worst pick of the entire award, although not many people will raise a hand to question it based on Hunter's reputation.

RF - Ichiro Suzuki

Ichiro does not deserve this, although like Sizemore and Hunter, he is at least a good fielder. His reputation and offensive production is the reason why he is again given this award.

The AL's outfield isn't in as much of shambles as the NL is, so I cannot harp too long. At least the league's worst minus defender didn't win a Gold Glove as occurred with Nate McLouth (who actually ranked dead last in all of baseball).

P - Mike Mussina

This doesn't really matter to me. Mussina won, presumably based on tradition and after having a surprisingly strong season. The award should have went to DJF favoUrite chubby ginger, Jesse Litsch.


Joe Sheehan, of Baseball Prospectus again on ESPNews, reiterates the fact that players are winning awards with their bats and reputations. He agrees with my assertion that Ellis and Gomez are certainly worthy of the Gold Glove this year.

The award is in shambles and the voting process needs to be reevaluated. I'm not sure how much longer this can go on before people simply ignore the award altogether. A rogue Gold Glove by a competing baseball mit company could be a start to shaking up the awards top to bottom.

2008 American League 'Shoulda' Gold Gloves

The American League Gold Gloves will be handed out today at 4 PM EST on ESPNews. Similar to yesterday, I will kick-off this event by posting who the actual winners should be.

As a reminder, the main tools I will be utilizing come from The Fielding Bible (TFB) and The Hardball Times (THT). TFB's plus/minus (+/-) tool will be one of the measures considered, with THT's Revised Zone Rating (RZR) being the other.

The American League 'Shoulda' Gold Glovers

1B - Lyle Overbay

Overbay didn't bring a lot with his bat this season, which will probably ruin any chance he has at actually winning this award. However, finishing first in RZR and second in +/- are reason enough to give this award to Overbay. Adding in the fact that he made the most out of zone plays (OOZ) only further cements Overbay as the American League's best fielding first basemen. The runner-up for this award goes to Carlos Pena, with Daric Barton looking over his shoulder.

It is interesting to note that had Casey Kotchman or Mark Teixeira spent the entire year in the American League this award would have been much more difficult to hand out.

2B - Mark Ellis

Unlike the National League, there isn't a legitimate argument for another second basemen to win this award. There is Mark Ellis, and then everybody else. Leading the AL in both RZR and +/-, Ellis is far and away the best fielding second basemen in the league. The runner-up is sure handed Placido Polanco. Don't be surprised to see Dustin Pedroia take this award, although he will certainly be undeserving of such.

Spoiler alert! Baseball Musings is reporting that Dusty has infact won this award. This certainly has got to be one of the biggest mistakes for this years award.

3B - Jack Hannahan

Initially, I figured this to be a no-brainer, Adrian Beltre all the way. However, Hannahan, not Beltre, is the league leader in RZR, while coming in second to Beltre for +/-. Despite putting up a phenomenal 78 OOZ, Beltre sits nearly 60 points behind Hannahan in RZR.

I may change my view on this once the Probabalistic Model of Range (PMR) is provided, and cannot argue with Beltre winning this award (consequently, he is my runner-up), but for now, I have to stick with Hannahan-do the numbers lie?

SS - Mike Aviles

Wow! Where did this guy come from again? Possibly Aviles' fielding may have me reconsidering my previous vote for Evan Longoria as AL Rookie of the Year. Among players with over 600 innings at short stop, Aviles leads all American League players in RZR, +/-, and PMR. That is certainly note-worthy.

The runner-up for this award is Marco Scutaro. I am utterly shocked that Scutaro is such a better fielder then teammate John McDonald.

LF - Carl Crawford

This is one of the easiest choices to make and one I am certain even the voters can manage to hit on. Crawford leads the AL in both RZR and +/-, and both by a substantially large margin.

Runner-up: Luke Scott. Despite landing fairly low on RZR, finishing second to CC in +/- helps his cause. Johnny Damon would make a claim for runner-up had he not been shuffled about the outfield as much in 2008.

CF - Carlos Gomez

Unfortunately I was only able to watch Gomez play a handful of times. Fortunately he impressed me each and everytime. Gomez is a lock to be an annual contender for the 'Shoulda' Gold Glove. The scary thing about the Minnesota outfield, Gomez isn't even their best fielder, that belongs to Denard Span, who did not play enough to qualify for the right field award-despite certainly being worthy of it.

The American League is ripe with incredible, young center fielders. With all possessing the offensive tools to keep them in the starting lineup, it is a matter of staying healthy. Because of this depth, it is nearly impossible to name a runner-up. Adam Jones didn't make TFB's +/- list, but he finished atop THT's RZR. He was also voted as the 4th best center fielder by TFB's poll. Good enough for me.

RF - Franklin Gutierrez

If Frankie stays in town and is provided with his fair share of plate appearances, the Indians could have one scary defensive outfield. Gutierrez led the American League in RZR and +/- among right fielders with more then 500 innings at the position. In fact, there is hardly a legitimate contender for this award. Gutierrez has the range of a center fielder, with the arm of-well, an awesome right fielder.

The runner-up for this award is the Blue Jays Alexis Rios.


I've already leaked one winner, who is completely undeserving of the award. Unfortunately this is the major flaw of a system that has zero stipulations to the voting process other then not voting for ones own player. However, even if managers and coaches were to look at the numbers, they would certainly look at the wrong ones. Even if the managers and coaches were given a set of 'rules' to follow, they would misinterpret them the way the BBWAA does.

Sadly, the credibility of the Gold Gloves lessens with every passing season. Players with a 'reputation' of flashy style are often the winners, while those who do the best job at preventing runs are left off the board.

2008 National League Gold Gloves

The Rawlings Gold Glove awards are given to those who displayed the leagues most superior fielding, as voted on by managers and coaches-not the BBWAA as I previously mentioned. Each year there are snubs as well as votes given to players who are certainly not deserving of, and this year did not disappoint.

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus was on ESPNews' The Hot List this afternoon, and asserted that often times players are given credit for what they did with their bat. In addition to this, according to Sheehan, is a 'viewed' award as much as it statistical. He did not claim this to be an entirely accurate perspective, rather, he suggested that the best defensive player may not win an award simply due to not doing anything flashy, or having fewer opportunities.

Here's who the managers and coaches gave their awards out to for the National League this season:

C - Yadier Molina

As I mentioned in the 'Shoulda' Awards, I'm not going to go through and judge a catcher. Molina seems like a fine choice to me.

1B - Adrian Gonzalez

This is bordering on criminal. Probably the biggest mistake of the National League Gold Glove award was not handing this one to Albert Pujols, but making this worse, and nearly discrediting the worth of the Gold Gloves altogether, was giving this to Adrian Gonzalez.

By all rights, Gonzalez should win this award. He is probably the most athletic first basemen in the National League. If not the most, then second behind Derek Lee. The Fielding Bible doesn't rank Gonzalez in the top 4, while The Hardball Times ranks Gonzalez as the 10th best fielding first basemen. This was clearly all about fielding percentage, where Gonzalez ranks as the best National League first basemen (tied).

2B - Brandon Phillips

While the voters got this one wrong, it isn't as bad as the Gonzalez vote. Phillips, while a fairly strong fielder, is still a little bit worse then Chase Utley. But Phillips, like Derek Jeter, finds his way onto highlight reels all of the time and is a flashy fielder.

3B - David Wright

I can understand giving this award to Wright. Ryan Zimmerman missing nearly half the season certainly put him at a disadvantage. Wright makes more flashy plays and is on a team that more people pay attention to. If I was picking the best defensive third basemen in the National League, either one would suffice.

I wonder how much of Wright winning this award is based on his reputation?

SS - Jimmy Rollins

The voters got this one correct. Good on them. The issue, however, is that the voters are probably going to keep giving this award to Rollins based on reputation.

Here is where the Gold Glove Award has another major flaw. Voters are told to group outfielders in a single cluster. This is clearly flawed, as an outfield with the three best center fielders would not obviously be superior then an outfield with the three best fielders at their respective positions. It is what it is, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.

ESPNews aligned the outfield winners as I will list.

RF - Shane Victorino

Victorino had a phenomenal season in center this year. It was specifically phenomenal considering it was his first shot at the position. Even if we simply list the three best outfielders, there is no way to rate him ahead of Chris Young. Unless of course we are considering a players contributions with their bat.

CF - Carlos Beltran

Similar to Phillips and Wright, I am fine with giving this award to Beltran. I do not believe he is the best candidate, but he's one of the top two or three, so it's close. Playing in a big market on a big stage, he is clearly going to be seen more frequently. He is also a veteran with a reputation as an excellent fielder. Having a great bat doesn't hurt in the voters eyes.

LF - Nate McLouth

Joe Sheehan believes this was more of an honorary award, one given to McLouth to reward him for having such an underrated season and making significant strides as a player. He deserves this award almost as much as Adrian Gonzalez deserves his. To again ignore Young is insulting.

P - Greg Maddux

The crime here is that this is still being called the National Leagues Gold Glove for a Pitcher. Why not just name it after Maddux?

As I mentioned, this is an award based on looks. While Maddux fields his position as well as anyone else, he also has the most opportunities to show off his glove to voters. No one is going to argue with this selection.


With only two glaring errors and borderline mistakes, the voters did not entirely ruin the credibility of the Gold Glove Award-although they did come close.

The American League Gold Gloves will be announced tomorrow at 4 PM EST.

2008 National League 'Shoulda' Gold Gloves

The Baseball Writers of America Association traditionally botch giving out awards, none is more obvious then with the Gold Glove Awards. The BBWAA typically enjoy giving awards to fielders who are also strong hitters. In addition to that, the writers give credit to a player based on reputation and making highlight reel plays. While highlight reel plays are exciting to view, they are often the result of poor positioning, a weak arm, mediocre reaction, and/or a lack of speed. Every time Derek Jeter is in the air making an 'acrobatic' throw, imagine Jimmy Rollins making that same play, flat on his feet.

Another issue, is the use of a pointless statistic. Fielding Percentage is a subjective measure and is more a product of a players individual ability. That is, a ball that Chase Utley gets to may not be a ball that Luis Castillo can get to. Thus, if Utley gets to the ball but makes an errant throw, allowing a 'base hit', should he get punished for getting to the ball while Castillo watched the ball roll into the outfield?

Thus, I'm going to take a look at two of the most prominent defensive statistics that actually matter. Statistics which truly look at how a player fields.

The first statistic I will look at will be The Fielding Bibles plus/minus (+/-) measure. At the Fielding Bible, the authors watch every defensive play over the course of the year and figure out how many runs a player saves compared to league average. A rate of +10 would be the same as earning a win for The Hardball Times' win shares.

The second statistic I will look at will be The Hardball Times' revised zone rating (RZR). Here is THT's explanation of RZR,

Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out....To get a full picture of a player's range, you should evaluate both his Revised Zone Rating and his plays made out of zone (OOZ). You can read more about the Revised Zone Ratings in this article.

These measure's will be weighted equally to come up with an unofficial list of who should win a Gold Glove-which is to be announced later this afternoon on ESPNews.

Without further adieu, the 2008 'Shoulda' Gold Glove winners for the National League:

1B - Albert Pujols

Pujols rates as the #1 defensive first basemen by both RZR and +/-. This is an easy award to give away and furthers Pujols' legacy as one of the best baseball players of all time. The runner-up for this away is Lance Berkman who ranked just behind Joey Votto in +/-, but a fair distance ahead of him in RZR.

2B - Chase Utley

Utley more then doubles the next best second basemen in +/- , ranking just below the NL's runner-up Brandon Phillips. Utley is nearing the same echelon as Pujols as the total package, being both an elite hitter and an elite fielder. The big difference, most teams will allow their first basemen to be a mediocre fielder if he is an elite hitter. Whereas second base, the more difficult position to field, is expected to have a slick fielder, albeit with a weak bat.

3B - Ryan Zimmerman

The most difficult position to award to this point, Zimmerman rates as the 4th best third basemen according to THT's RZR, however he is the only one of THT's top 5 which made TFB's top 10. Zimmerman has always been considered a plus fielder but never given credit for such. Undergoing major surgery twice in the last year only increases how impressive of a fielder he is. The runner-up is the New York Mets David Wright.

SS - Jimmy Rollins

J-Roll rates as the National Leagues top +/- fielding short stop and number two in RZR. I imagine the BBWAA will get this right and take Rollins as he has a sound bat to compliment his slick fielding. Yunel Escobar is undervalued as a fielder, and if the Padres can find a taker for Khalil Greene, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to utilize Yunel as the center piece of a Jake Peavy trade.

LF - Matt Holliday

I am as shocked as the next person as I had always thought of Holliday as a terrible fielder. Holliday rates as the second best fielder among those who qualified in RZR and the third best fielder in +/-. The reason I am giving him the nod over Willie Harris and Connor Jackson is because of the major discrepancy in playing time. Harris is the runner-up but nearly wins the award due to making 45 out of zone (OOZ) plays in less then half the playing time of Holliday (Holliday made 50 OOZ plays).

CF - Chris Young

It is evident that Carlos Beltran has the best shot at winning this award, but Young actually rates out as the superior fielding when utilizing both statistics. Beltran leads Young by one point in +/- whereas Young leads Beltran by over 2% in RZR. A very close race and arguably a toss-up.

Cody Ross was arguably the best center fielder in the National League. That certainly comes as a surprise to me as Ross clearly looks out of position in cavernous Dolphin Stadium. What knocks him from the competition is his lack of OOZ plays and plays altogether.

RF - Randy Winn

Finishing first and second in RZR and +/- respectively has Winn at the top of the heap in the National League. It is a good thing that Winn is a solid fielder, as his bat is not overly impressive and would not be tolerated if he was below average. The runner-up goes to Brian Giles.

It is interesting to note that each of the outfielders mentioned here, come from poor hitters parks, parks that are traditionally knows for having large outfields. I am curious if these fielders are benefitting from either a fly ball friendly pitching staff, or by a more all-out style of play.


With the awards being given out later this afternoon, it will be interesting to see how much the BBWAA allow a subjective measure such as fielding percentage weigh into their respective decisions.

I left out the catching and pitching positions because each has much to do with their respective teams. For example, a catcher may struggle with throwing out runners because his pitchers do not help with the running game, and vice versa. A catchers reputation also limits who runs, and when. One way to measure such, would be to look at a team's ERA while a specific catcher is behind the dish. This, however, could also be a result of being a 'personal catcher' to a really good pitcher.

In terms of a pitchers gold glove, there are certainly pitchers that are phenomenal with the mit, but a lack of playing time, as well as being of secondary concern to a pitcher is my rationale for omitting pitchers from this list. It would be like utilizing a pitchers hitting when awarding the National League Cy Young.

2008 Award Postings

This entry will be the home of each of the 2008 Awards:

National League Gold Glove Awards Reflection

National League 'Shoulda' Gold Glove Awards

American League Gold Glove Awards Reflection

American League 'Shoulda' Gold Glove Awards


According to the BBWAA website, the remainder of the awards will be given out in the following order (dates in parenthesis).

The OLIB's American and National League Rookie of the Year Awards

American and National League Rookie of the Year (November 10)

The OLIB's National League Cy Young Award

National League Cy Young Award (November 11)

The OLIB's American and National League Manager of the Year Awards

American and National League Manager of the Year (November 12)

The OLIB's American League Cy Young Award

American League Cy Young Award (November 13)

The OLIB's National League Most Valuable Player Award

National League Most Valuable Player Award (November 17)

The OLIB's American League Most Valuable Player Award

American League Most Valuable Player Award (November 18)


I will be adding reflections when each of these awards are given out, as well as providing my awards. For now, here are the BDD Awards. Added rationale to follow.

BDD Rookie of the Year Award (AL & NL)

BDD Cy Young Award (AL & NL)

Under the Radar - Jayson Nix

On Monday (but officially reported on Thursday), the Chicago White Sox signed ex-Colorado Rockies second basemen Jayson Nix to a one year minor league contract. While last week officially kicked off the offseason, the value moves figure to take some time before they begin rolling in.

This, however, is not the case with the Jayson Nix signing.

Nix, a 26 year old second basemen, has went from being a highly regarded prospect, to a non-factor, back to a 'keep an eye on' candidate. While playing in Colorado's system, Nix has shown a fair amount of pop in his bat, coupled with decent speed and base stealing abilities.

What Nix is best known for, however, is his glove. Rewinding back to early in the 2008 year, Kevin Goldstein asserted that Nix had won the second base job with his glove. His fielding was so good, that as a full time second basemen, Goldstein figured Nix to be one of the top fielders in the game.

Goldstein concludes that Nix is a "superb" fielder, with great hands, and quick enough to get to a lot of balls in the hole.

Looking back at Nix's prospect card, where he rated as a 2 star prospect, we see that he is given praise for having 'plus speed' and 'gap power' as his main hitting tools. While these tools would obviously be better suited in the National League and at Coors Field, US Cellular Field is one of the next best locations for Nix to rejuvenate his career.


What is it that makes this move so special that it is worthy of being written about? Let us consider the free agent market for second basemen (courtesy MLBTradeRumors):

• Willie Bloomquist (31)
• Craig Counsell (38)
• Ray Durham (37)
• Damion Easley (39)
• David Eckstein (34)
• Mark Grudzielanek (39) - Type B
• Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)
• Orlando Hudson (31) - Type A
• Tadahito Iguchi (34)
• Jeff Kent (41) - Type B
• Felipe Lopez (29)
• Mark Loretta (37) - Type B
• Ramon Martinez (36)
• Pablo Ozuna (34)
• Nick Punto (31)
• Luis Rivas (29)

Let's first look at this list from an age/potential perspective. The age of the players is next to their respective names in brackets, and as you can see, there are only two players whom are under the age of 31. In fact, the majority of the players on this list are age 34 or older, and what a team will get out of these players is difficult to know.

Of the two players still in the prime years of their career, neither are substantially superior with the bat then Nix.

Next, let us look at the fielding abilities of the players available. According to The Fielding Bible, Jeff Kent, Ray Durham, Felipe Lopez, and David Eckstein were among the worst fielders in all of Major League Baseball during the 2008 season. Despite being better hitters, the cost, plus iron gloves, will certainly balance out the values, even favoring Nix.

Lastly, the offensive output that each player can be expected to provide. While it will take a major step forward for Nix to become a force with his bat, it is reasonable to assume league average production. That said, how many players from the list of free agents can we knock off that will be substantially worse then league average? Luis Rivas, Nick Punto, Ramon Martinez, Pablo Ozuna, Tadahito Iguchi, Damion Easley, Craig Counsell, and Willie Bloomquist can all be knocked off the list. Not one of these players can be counted on for an OPS above .650, let alone cracking .700.

From a list of 16, we have knocked off 12 players. Which means there is an argument suggesting that Nix was one of the top 5 available free agent second basemen. Under the Radar, however, is first and foremost concerned with value. Value is not only concerned with what a player will provide for a specific franchise in terms of wins and losses, but also cost.

Let's take a look at how Nix's one year, minor league contract looks compared to what the estimated contracts of the remaining players will look like.

Orlando Hudson is the most intriguing player from this list, mostly because of his glove. However, Hudson will presumably cost a multi-year deal of at least $5M per season. With Mark Ellis off of the market, Hudson is actually the best all around second basemen. After earning $6.25M in 2008, it is unlikely that the best available second basemen takes a paycut.

The next most intriguing player that remains is Mark Grudzielanek. Grudzielanek is a fine defensive second basemen, and has been receiving an under market contract from the Royals recently. While he is unlikely to resign with the Royals, he is also unlikely to find another starting job simply due to his age and the fact that he is coming off of an injury plagued season.

The second available Mark, Mark Loretta. Loretta is a poor-man's Grudzielanek who has cashed in from two surprising seasons in San Diego. He is a lock to hit for league average numbers, but doesn't have the glove of Nix, Hudson, or Grudzielanek. Loretta is a nice player to have, but like Grudzielanek, is at a point in his career that he cannot be depended on to be an everyday player.

Jerry Hairston Jr chose the perfect year to drop in career high statistics. While Hairston has always had the tools to be a capable Major Leaguer, for one reason or another he has been perpetually misfortunate. Hairston's career BABIP is 50 points lower then his expected figure of .338. For a player with his speed, and a better then league average strikeout to walk ratio, one would think Hairston would be a more highly coveted free agent.

The problem is, Hairston has failed to stay healthy, and is a fairly weak fielder. His role is better served as a utility player that can fill any role on a given night, but isn't forced into full time action.


While Hudson is the only player who will conceivably be a superior everyday second basemen, his cost and commitment make him less valuable then Nix. Loretta, Grudzielanek, and Hairston would be superior acquisitions if a team could depend on each player for full tiem roles. But at their age, or with their specific flaws, not one of those players can be counted on for more then 100 games.


At age 26, Jayson Nix is in the perfect situation. He is being brough aboard for his glove. The Chicago White Sox are a tremendous offensive team, and will consider anything Nix adds with his bat as a bonus. In addition to this, White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams picked up a player that is young enough to develope into any everyday second basemen for the next 3 to 4 seasons.

That the cost for Nix is so little, while the reward has such a high ceiling, coupled with the poor class of free agent second basemen, Kenny Williams may have just nabbed himself the most valuable free agent of the Hot Stove League.

Election and a Response

Tomorrow is an election day, and while this blog has nothing to do with politics (at least directly), I do feel the need to share an outstandingly humorous clip from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. After all, if it's not one politician, it's another:

Baseball Musings, run by David Pinto, is one of baseball's best online sites. He has what feels like hourly posts updating his readers of the ongoings of baseball. His analysis is consistently strong and he has an outstanding database and tools for his readers to utilize. In other words, Pinto runs a site that I could only dream mine turns into.

A recent post has Pinto questioning if the Athletics selectivity is a hindrance to their hitters. He recalls the Moneyball philosophy where hitters were rewarded for not going after tough pitches, even if it meant striking out looking, and being punished for going after bad pitches, even if it had a positive result. Teaching 'good process' is ideal at low levels of baseball, but as Pinto points out, can be a negative at the Major League level.

However, there is somewhat of a flaw in Pinto's argument. Pinto creates the following table:

2008	Batting Avg.	On-Base Avg.
Mark Ellis	.233	.321
Jack Cust	.231	.375
Daric Barton	.226	.327
Jack Hannahan	.218	.305

While the table does tell a story, it misses on some key factors. The first, and most important, batting average, even slugging percentage, are secondary to on base average in terms of creating a winning ballclub. However, an on base average of under .310 from a team's infield is not going to win anything anytime soon.

The next key factor is the reliability of batting average. According to Baseball Prospectus' "Baseball Between the Numbers-Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong", batting average has the least season to season reliability of any offensive measure (isolate power, walk rate, strikeout rate, and stolen base). Thus, when we see a hitter with a .330 batting average one season, there is typically a reason to look into that number.

The same can be said when a hitter is so far below Major League average, we can simply ask 'why'. Oftentimes, the answer is noted within a comparison of the players Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) and their expected BABIP (xBABIP). A players xBABIP is simply calculated by taking the players line drive rate, placing it into decimal form, and adding .11. While this is not an open and shut calculation, for arguments sake, it will suffice.


Let's now look at the aforementioned quad of Ellis, Cust, Barton, and Hannahan.

Mark Ellis had a rough 2008 season. While much of this can be blamed on a lingering injury (something that has consistently nagged Ellis throughout his career), we can also see that he fell victim to some poor luck. Ellis' 2008 line drive rate of 20.1% is only marginally higher then his career average. One can assume this is a sustainable rate for season to season, and subsequently a viable figure to utilize when calculating xBABIP.

With a BABIP of .249, Ellis fell more then 50 points below his xBABIP of .311. Ellis' expected batting average is then .285, a 50+ point jump from where he finished in 2008. How many secondbasemen with a .374 on base average are there? Answer: 5.

Jack Cust is a special case as his strikeouts will keep his batting average down, no matter how high his line drive rate is. That said, Cust's xBABIP was only 8 points higher then his actual BABIP, hardly worth calculating. However, there is very little to complain about a hitter that gets on base over 37% of the time while providing a .245 ISO.

Interestingly, Cust's outstanding home run rate of 29.7% was actually a dip from his 2007 total of 31.7%. That's an extra couple of points in a players batting and on base averages.

One of the biggest outliers from this list is Daric Barton, one of my favorite young players and a hitter who was underperforming his expected statistics by a large margin all season. As a rookie, Barton has a built in reason for underperforming. The season started off miserably for Barton, as he appeared overmatched, struggling to provide a league average strikeout rate. However, as the season grew on, Barton's strong plate discipline eventually resulted in fewer strikeouts.

Also in this mess was Barton under performing his xBABIP by just over 30 points. This deviation resulted in Barton's batting average falling 23 points under his expected figure. When one considers that much of Barton's struggles can be tied in with a strikeout rate that dropped 10% from the first half (26%) to the second half (16%) and that his home run per fly ball rate was well under league average and expected rates, it is clear that Barton was a victim to poor luck and being a rookie.

However, even a .250/.350 line from Barton in 2008 would have put him around projected levels and at the American League average for first basemen. Not terrible for a rookie.

Similar to Barton, Jack Hannahan's BABIP fell over 30 points below his xBABIP. Simply achieving his xBABIP would have seen both his batting and on base averages approach league average. For a player that is more utility/quadruple A, league average production is just fine.


While Pinto does bring up a valid point that the A's may be preaching over-selectivity, it certainly does not appear to be hurting them to the degree he asserts. I would expect the aforementioned players to approach, if not exceed, their expected values for the 2009 season.