Trade Speculator - Tribe Talk

Mark Shapiro churned out another couple of trades over the weekend and maintains his position as one of the most crafty General Managers in baseball. Unfortunately Shapiro does not maintain that confidence for extended periods of time, and consequently, is left letting quality players leave town for a pittance. Without reflecting upon those players and some questionable free agent signings, which subsequently tarnishes the job Shapiro has done in Cleveland, I will look only at what Shapiro does right.

In the first of two trades, Shapiro and the Indians send Cleveland fan favorite, utility man Casey Blake to the Los Angeles Dodgers for minor leaguers Jon Meloan and Carlos Santana. At this point, the Indians season is all but done. Even if the club still has a solid run or two left, Blake wouldn't be the difference between that run and finishing in last place.

Casey Blake, 'the ultimate professional' was never a favorite of mine. He was a valuable player in that he could play multiple positions and was apparently a good clubhouse guy. At 35, and with an expiring contract, this was a move the Indians needed to make. In fact, I had always wondered why the team used him in such a consistent manner, rather then making him a true utility sub.

To date, Blake has had arguably the best statistical season of his career. While the power has fallen in recent years, Blake is posting a career high on base percentage and is sitting just shy of his career high in on base plus slugging.

The big change for Blake has been his ability to hit left handed hitters. The biggest improvement has been seen in his contact rate, although it is uncertain whether that rate is statistically significant enough to sustain is uncertain, the fact remains that the Dodgers acquired a player that will help the club.

To what extent, is unknown. The Dodgers, however, will now have one of the worst defensive infields in the majors, and will be greatly affected by that. This takes the club out of the market for an offensive player and did so at a relatively cheap cost.

The cost, two players the team can afford to be without for the long and short term. The club is set at catcher for the foreseeable future with Russell Martin. The second player, a starter/reliever is more organizational depth then a true asset. Considering the Dodgers rotation and bullpen situation, the player will not be missed.

The first of those players, Carlos Santana, a 22 year old switch hitting catcher, whom the Indians extensively looked at during the CC Sabathia negotiations. Clearly during these negotiations Shapiro liked what Santana brought to the table, and the young hitter has continued to produce increasing his power stats each month while maintaining quality walk and strikeout rates.

An interesting comparison comes to mind with Santana, and that is the player Santana is projected to replace in a little over two years. Victor Martinez posted an OPS of .882 as a 22 year old backstop for Cleveland's high A affiliate in Kinston. Santana's OPS, despite hitting in a somewhat more favorable league and ballpark, is .983.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus reflects upon the future of Carlos Santana. In May, he stated that despite a weak batting line as a 21 year old in A ball in 2007, scouts came away impressed with Santana's 'raw skills'. According to Goldstein,

"For me, that's an everyday catcher," said the scout. "He's a good hitter from both sides and he's strong--there's some juice in his bat." Defensively, Santana also earns high marks: "The arm is great, and will be even better with some improved mechanics. He's a little raw behind the dish, but he certainly has the athleticism to get better."

Carlos Santana is pretty much on par with a catching prospect the Indians moved last season and is seemingly a fair comparison to make. Maximiliano Ramirez had his first cup of coffee with the Rangers this season and while he didn't take the league by storm, for his first shot of things as a 23 year old, he more then held his own.

The second player the Indians acquired is 23 year old right handed starter, reliever, starter, and now reliever Jonathan Meloan. Word has it, the Indians will use Meloan as a reliever in triple A, a role he has more then excelled in the previous two seasons. Over the previous two seasons, Meloan has put up a rate of 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

Goldstein rated Meloan as a 3 star prospect entering this season, and as a 'good' prospect entering last season. Entering this season, Goldstein had the following to say about Meloan,

The Good: Meloan gets outs by using his low-90s sinker early in the count to set up his plus-plus slider, which is a true wipeout offering that he's equally effective throwing for strikes or using as a chase pitch. He also occasionally mixes in a curveball to change hitters' eye level, and he brings a late-inning intensity to every outing.
The Bad: Nothing Meloan does is pretty. He's not athletic, and his mechanics are rough, with a lot of moving parts. His future is in relief only, but his stuff likely falls a bit short of closer-worthy due to his velocity.

Similar praise was given by Goldstein entering the 2007 season,

The Good: Brought back very slowly from elbow soreness in the spring, the power righthander dominated out of the bullpen by striking out 91 and walking just 16 in 52 innings spread across three levels. His two-pitch arsenal consists of 92-94 mph fastball that he can reach back and hit 97 with, and a spike curveball that one scout classifies as "a sinking monster."
The Bad: Meloan's injury history leaves him as a bit of an unproven commodity, as he was pitching two-to-three inning stints on four days' rest during most of the season, so we're unsure as to whether or not he has the ability to maintain his stuff on shorter notice. He was used at a more normal pace in the Arizona Fall League, and still dominated. He struggles with control at times.

Truly, durability is the only real issue with Meloan. It will be interesting to see how quick the Indians are to call him up.

Comparatively, John Sickels of Minor League Ball is slightly more optimistic for Meloan rating the reliever as a B prospect the last two years. In addition to this, Sickels rated Meloan in his top 50 pitching prospects the last two seasons, and as recent as last year tabbed him as the 'top closing prospect' in baseball. I believe the Indians could use a closer soon.

While the Dodgers did not give up much, and should be fine without both players, they also did not receive much in return. It seems, from my perspective, that the Indians received a substantial haul for a player that was blocking the Indians from evaluating what they have. Trading Blake means that Andy Marte, Ryan Garko, Shin-Soo Choo, and Franklin Gutierrez will all receive extended looks, and the Indians can decide the best plan of action for 2009 and beyond.

Thus, I am going to give this trade to Mark Shapiro and the Indians. Although, if the Dodgers flip Andy LaRoche for an upgrade elsewhere, this trade will look a little better for Los Angeles. I wonder if the Dodgers would be content grabbing Jason Bay for LaRoche and Andre Ethier.


In the second trade of Friday, Shapiro added another ex-top prospect pitcher, Anthony Reyes, from the St. Louis Cardinals for minor league reliever Luis Perdomo. It would be interesting to hear how much the arrival of Meloan influenced Shapiro to pay what the Cardinals were asking for Reyes.

This is an outstanding trade by Shapiro. While Perdomo has shown flashes of excellence, starting pitchers are substantially more valuable.

Anthony Reyes was once an outstanding prospect. The last two seasons Reyes was eligible to be rated (2005 and 2006), John Sickels named Reyes as the top prospect in the Cardinals organization, tabbing him as a B+ prospect.

Reyes owns an average strikeout rate and an average walk rate. Although for some reason he has been extremely hittable. PECOTA has always loved Reyes, this season he was projected for 72 strikeouts in 60 innings. But even with that strikeout rate, the projection system called for 1.5+ hits per inning. Quite the quagmire.

According to Fan Graphs PitchFX data Reyes' fastball regressed from 91.4mph to 89.6mph from 2005 to 2007. For a pitcher who throws well over 60% of his pitches as fastballs, sitting in the high 80's is a tough situation. However, this season has seen Reyes' fastball average 92.1mph, albeit in limited major league action.

The cost for Reyes, 24 year old right handed reliever Luis Perdomo. Perdomo absolutely tore the Carolina League apart this season, allowing only 19 hits in 39 innings. In those 39 innings he allowed only 6 runs (4 earned).

While slightly old for his level of competition, there is no denying Perdomo's stuff. The reliever owns a mid 90s fastball and a somewhat deceptive delivery (see video below).




The age issue is not a major one in my opinion. Perdomo was signed as a 19 year old out of the Dominican Republic. The Indians kept him in the Dominican Republic until 2006, despite some relatively impressive numbers for their summer league team (2005 - 3-2 with seven saves and a 3.57 ERA in 23 games; 2004 - Went 4-2 with six saves and a 1.35 ERA in 25 games; and 2003 - Was 1-0 with one save and a 4.35 ERA in 14 games). I can see Perdomo with the Cardinals big league team at some point this season.

The major worry from my perspective is that the Cardinals were willing to let Anthony Reyes go for a relatively modest price. If pitching coach Dave Duncan felt he could turn Reyes around, he wouldn't have allowed this trade to go through. However, there is another scenario. With Reyes about to be out of options, the Cardinals may have felt that moving him today would net more in return then when their back is against the wall.

All that being said, the Indians again take the cake with this trade. The club's triple A rotation in Buffalo is a fairly exciting one, boasting three ex-top prospects Zach Jackson, Bryan Bullington, and now Reyes. Minor League Baseballs best skate punk singer Scott Radinsky has his hands full trying to turn the three pitchers into something decent, or at least fixing their respective confidence levels.


Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus wrote the following to sum up the Indians moves,

The other major upshot of this deal is that it represents Andy Marte's last best chance to have a career as somebody's third baseman, starting now. He'd already drawn 11 of the last 15 starting assignments at the hot corner, so this was already something the Tribe was actively reviewing. Since he's hitting .267/.327/.511 in his July playing time—just under half of his total at-bats for the season, and a reflection on how much time he'd been cooling his heels on the bench on a team replete with hitting problems—it's fair to say that this is not only something that won't make any negative impact on the Tribe's current fortunes, it's almost certain to be an improvement, on this season and into the future.

In summation, these were two very good deals for the Indians. Meloan's more advanced than Perdomo, so in terms of exchanging one future reliever for another, they helped themselves in the near-term while adding a starting pitcher prospect most would take their chances on and a premium catching prospect. Add in the opportunity they're going to get to give to Marte, something that will tell them whether or not they have an answer or need to start looking for one, and it's a great bit of turning the page and adding talent to an organization that's already working on ways to contend next year in the wake of this year's disappointments.

Trade Speculator - Yankees & Pirates

According to Baseball Digest Daily, the Yankees have agreed to send Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, Phil Coke, and George Kontos to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. It is sounding as if the non-waiver deadline is going to be a busy one. Although many of the big names reported to be on the block have moved, it sounds as if a lot of teams are not done shopping.

Update - Coke and Kontos have been removed from this deal in favor of Jeff Karstens and Dan McCutchen. This hurts the package the Pirates received. Both Coke and Kontos were pitchers worth getting excited about.

The Yankees brought in two pieces that will help them for the 2008 season adding veteran players to replace some of the youth and inexperience the club had. Not knowing where Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui will slot into the Yankees lineup down the stretch, or if they will, the Yankees felt the need to chase after one of the most highly sought after bats.

Xavier Nady has had an outstanding season. Forever being a player of promise, the 29 year old outfielder has put it altogether this season in a statistically legitimate season. Two major things have led to the renaissance season of Nady are his strikeout and line drive rates. Owning the lowest strikeout rate of his career, Nady is making more frequent contact-never a bad thing. In addition to this, Nady has line drive rate go up a second straight season to an outstandingly high 26.5%. Solid contact rate leads to solid contact which invariably helps a hitter reach base safely.

The second player, Damaso Marte, is a veteran left handed pitcher with an affordable contract. Marte was a highly sought after pitcher in recent weeks, the Yankees will presumably use him more as a situational lefty-the only lefty in their bullpen. Marte is a strong arm and should only add to the bullpen.

According to Ken Rosenthal, Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman had been talking to Pittsburgh about Marte for a few days prior to the trade. It was only on Friday when Nagy entered the discussions. I wonder what the trade looked like prior to that?

In exchange for Nady and Marte, the Pirates brought in four prospects, only one of whom had any value prior to the start of the season. It does appear as though Neil Huntington has a plan, so it doesn't come as much of a surprise that he chose players that are further along in development over players with slightly higher ceilings.

Beginning with Ross Ohlendorf, the Pirates received a pitcher whom they can immediately use out of the bullpen, if they so choose. Ohlendorf is going to be 26 in a little over a week, and the right handed pitcher needs to find his spot in the majors soon. Armed with a hard fastball that averages 93mph, Ohlendorf compliments this pitch with a slider he isn't afraid to use. His long term projection sees him as a reliever, hopefully that helps him remain healthy.

As a key piece of the trade which sent Randy Johnson to the Diamondbacks, Ohlendorf has regularly shown up on John Sickels prospect rankings, sitting as a C+ prospect. Nothing overly exciting.

Daniel McCutchen is another soon to be 26 year old with limited upside. He is right handed and is capable of eating innings. It sounds as if he too is seen as a long term reliever. Armed with a low 90s fastball, a splitter, and a good curve, his progress through the minor leagues have been impressive due to his pro career beginning 3 years ago.

Another, not overly impressive player, fellow 'soon to be' 26 year old Jeff Karstens. The right hander was given a shot at helping the Yankees rotation last season, and failed in his three starts. The Yankees then used him out of the bullpen where he was equally as bad. 2008 represents the third season in which Karstens has pitched at triple A.

Karstens appeared on Sickels' 2007 Yankees prospect list as a 'just missed'. Not a good sign for an organization that had two C level prospects make the cut. In other words, we're not talking much of anything here.

The final player, and truly the only player the Pirates were truly interested in, Jose Tabata. The 2008 season has been one in which has seen Tabata's stock drop. He was rated by many as a top 50 prospect overall, a rating which was more reflective of his age then performance. I had rated Tabata in my top 10, citing that the Yankees would treat him properly.

While I may have been mistaken in suggesting the Yankees have treated him properly, the organization certainly has not hurt the kid. At age 19 he is more then holding his own in double A. To date, Tabata has shown an excellent approach at the plate, although his power has yet to develop.

John Sickels has rated Tabata as high as an A-, and most recently saw him as a B+ prospect. Much of this is due to Tabata's inability to display power as he moves through the minors. Sickels, however, comments that Tabata has an advanced feel for the strike zone, something that I view as being more important then showing early power-see Brandon Wood.

When comparing Tabata with the Mets young outfield prospect, Sickels suggested that both will be 'stars', although he does not comment on the extent of stardom for each player. One thing that worries Sickels is Tabata's size, which does not help his power projection.

Additionally, there have been recent concerns regarding Tabata's conditioning and makeup. While it wouldn't surprise me if Tabata was intentionally bulking up, the concerns about his makeup raise red flags. Although at 19 years old, I am willing to give him a pass on that.

According to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Tabata's swing-the same one that generated concern regarding power potential-looks even worse this season and is a legitimate cause for concern.

Enough of the negative, Kevin Goldstein had the following to say about Tabata entering this season, while rating him as a 4 star prospect:

The Good: Tabata is a gifted hitter with outstanding bat speed and hand-eye coordination, showing the ability to hit any pitch, anywhere, from both lefties and righties. He’s an average runner and a good right fielder with the arm strength for the position. He plays under control and with a confidence far beyond his years.

In addition to this, it sounds as if Tabata can be a more then adequate right fielder, posing decent speed and a strong arm.

At the beginning of this season, I called for Tabata to be a future Bobby Abreu. I liked the way Tabata could take a walk at such a young age, while keeping his strikeouts down. However, his power looks very limited, and we are presumably looking at a hitter with under 20 home runs and a sub .420 slugging percentage. That said, I think Xavier Nady and Andre Ethier pose as superior comparables.


Had this trade been made in March, April, or even early May, the Pirates would have went down as the undeniable winners. While acquiring Tabata is a very nice piece, and projecting exactly what type of hitter he will become is very difficult at this point, his stock has taken such a hit, that it is interesting to see him as the cornerstone of any trade. An outfield of Tabata and Andrew McCutchen should be nice to build around, however lacking legitimate power.

The three pitchers the Pirates acquired are at a 'take or leave' level. One would almost think that there are equal to better pitchers that pass through waivers, get non-tendered, etc. This trade then, was entirely about Tabata, and making room for the future in Pittsburgh. Hitters such as Steve Pearce (called up) and the aforementioned McCutchen.

The Yankees are the winners of this deal. Cashman filled two holes on the roster with cheap and established players. While Tabata should turn into a regular, a quality one at that, he probably isn't a player that the Yankees will look back at and regret not holding onto. Additionally, Nady and Marte are players whom the Yankees will look back on and recognize how much they brought to the club for the stretch run.

This trade, coupled with the Rauch trade a few days earlier, signals the end of the 'sellers' market and transfers the trade deadline to a 'buyers' market. That is, a buyer can now send one prospect of worth and some throw-ins for two cheap and solid players.

Trade Speculator - Minor Moves

I suppose the title of this entry is not entirely true as both moves involved players who should have a fairly decent impact on their teams. Whether the players are responsible for making or breaking the seasons of their respective clubs is yet to be seen. Rather, the reason this entry is titled 'Minor Moves' is due to the relative obscurity of these trades. How they came about and the surprisingly quick nature of the moves.

The first move I will discuss, is the San Diego Padres trade of Randy Wolf to the Houston Astros for minor league right hander Chad Reineke. The Padres continue to clean house and rid themselves of any player who doesn't have much of a future with the club. Interestingly, the 5th place Astros, who are over 10 games out for the wild card, entered into the 'buyers' market.

Adding Randy Wolf will not hurt the Astros and will certainly lessen the blow of the loss of Roy Oswalt. Does this enter the Astros into the playoff race? Certainly not. But the cost was minimal and provides the Astros with some above average innings. At worst, this stirs the pot in the National League and possibly causes a team to miss the playoffs that should have been in it-think the 2007 Mets. The cost will be slightly under $2M for this rental.

There are two best case scenarios in my opinion. The first, and most likely, the Astros let Wolf walk at the end of the season and receive compensation for him based on the thinking that Wolf will at least be a type B free agent. This can also help build good will with the Houston fan base, as the front office can claim to 'having gone for it' by acquiring Wolf.

The second scenario, although it negates the 'gone for it' claim, places the Astros in a position to be a seller over the next 8 days. Anything can happen between now and July 31st. Another team could discover that they are one pitcher away, or simply want to add depth and offer more then the Astros gave up. There are a lot of teams that could use another starting pitcher, and many of those should not have the goods to go after AJ Burnett or Erik Bedard. Thus, Wolf is the best of the next tier of pitchers that are speculated to be available.

In return for Wolf, the Padres add Chad Reineke, a 26 year old right handed pitcher who hasn't been outstanding during his professional career, however he also hasn't been terrible.

According to Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, Reineke entered the 2008 season as the Astros 6th best prospect. However, keep in mind that speaks more to the terrible system that the Astros possess then the overall ability of Reineke as Goldstein rates the pitcher as a '2 star' prospect. I will ignore the negative Goldstein writes about, as much of them were referencing Reineke the starter. Goldstein had the following praise to offer about Reineke,

The Good: Reineke has a solid fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 93-94 at times. He primarily uses it to set up a plus slider that has nice two-plane break, which Reineke uses as an out pitch. He has a big durable body, and maintains his velocity late into games when he starts. He has a good pickoff move and controls the running game well.

A nice fastball combined with a plus slider is a solid combination for any pitcher. Most starters would benefit from adding another above average pitch, or two. However, at 26, nobody is going to confuse Reineke for his high ceiling as a starter, rather, he projects long term as a reliever. This is presumably the pitcher the Padres feel they are picking up. Moving Reineke to the bullpen full time may add a mile or two to his fastball. Combined with a 'herky jerky' delivery, Reineke might come as quite the bargain for the Padres as a legitimate bullpen option.

At the very least, the Padres can bank the remaining money they would have spent on Wolf and use it this offseason. Possibly, Reineke turns into Chris Young, and benefits from being a fly ball pitcher with plus stuff at PETCO.

Unfortunately I have to name a winner and a loser. For the time being, the Padres are the winners as they cut costs and add some decent potential. If Wolf turns into a type B free agent or is flipped in the next week for a superior prospect then Reineke, the Astros win. I hope I don't show up in google searches under 'Astros win'.


The second transaction, and substantially less confusing, saw the Washington Nationals move closer Jon Rauch to the Arizona Diamondbacks for middle infielder Emilio Bonifacio. Before even looking closer into this deal, I have to grade the Diamondbacks as the obvious winner in this trade, this, despite really liking Bonifacio and really disliking Rauch.

Jon Rauch is an absolute steal of a player to acquire. Owed about $5M over the next 2+ seasons, Rauch's durability and decent to strong numbers over his career is enough to make him an excellent acquisition. It is additionally surprising that a team like the Nationals would feel the cheap Rauch (who is a monster of a man) would be an expendable piece. However, maybe Bowden dislikes O'Dowd and did this trade to drive down the value of Brian Fuentes.

Coming over to the Diamondbacks, Rauch immediately improves the clubs bullpen for the short and long term. He adds a pitcher who can be used in any relief mode and makes a somewhat weak and shallow bullpen into a strong and deep one. Just like that! I can see the Diamondbacks going to a closer by committee, but that does not lessen the value of the trade for the club.

When I first heard that Emilio Bonifacio was the player the Nationals were receiving in return for Rauch, I was startled. I had thought Bonifacio's presence is what made Alberto Callaspo expendable during last year's Hot Stove League. However, it appears as though the Diamondbacks did not see much of a future for Bonifacio within the organization.

The Nationals receive an unpolished 23 year old with blazing speed. However, Bonifacio needs to develop a lot of plate discipline and greatly improve his walk rate before being considered a quality every day major leaguer. At this point, he'd make the perfect compliment for Ronnie Belliard, how are people against cloning with that sort of creation? (note: this creation only applies if it does not own Belliard's tongue)

John Sickels of Minor League Ball ("DOT COM!") rated Bonifacio as a C+ entering this season, although one could argue that this rating is reflective of the depth of the Arizona system. That is, the distance from the top to the bottom is far greater for Arizona, then it is for the Phillies. However, agreeing with this rating, Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus rated Bonifacio as a '2 star' prospect, citing his lack of power and inability to take a walk as the rational. In other words, Bonifacio ranks favorably with Darren Ford-the outfielder the Giants received for Ray Durham.

In all, the Nationals had no real reason to make this trade. Rauch has got to have substantially more value then this given how strong he has been in the closers role this season. He is relatively young, durable, and cheap. It is hard to believe teams were not lining up to acquire him. That is, with the Giants-Brewers trade in mind, a reliever of Rauch's value should net a substantial amount more then Durham. Bowden didn't get more.

Thus, the Diamondbacks are the clear winners of this trade. Outside of Bonifacio turning into a top of the order regular, who more then holds his own in the field, this trade lacks a lot of direction and understanding from my point of view.

Adam Miller Watch - An Update

Once Adam Miller's injury had been rediagnosed as a hole in his skin, which could have led to major infection issues, and it was thus surgery was required. This is said to be the same injury that Miller suffered during the Arizona Fall League, however it clearly went in the worst direction possible.

There hasn't been a lot of information released to date on the injury or Miller's recovery from it. But at the point of surgery, Miller was said to be out of pitching related activities for 8 weeks, which we are rapidly approaching.

A week ago, Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus, briefly mentioned Adam Wainwright's injured pulley tendon. Although this is a slightly different injury, where surgery was not required to reattach the tendon, we can use some of the information regarding Wainwright to let us know what's going on with Miller-which undeniably will go with substantially less fan fare, the result of being an oft-injury minor leaguer, and pitching for the small market, and losing, Indians team.

Understand that Miller will presumably take longer to return from this injury. Not only because he underwent surgery, but also because the Indians are in a position to be extra careful with their prized pitching prospect. Additionally, Wainwright is vital to the Redbirds making noise in down the stretch.

With that understood, over the weekend, reports are suggesting that Wainwright is about a week from throwing off of a mound. At which point, Wainwright would be between two and four weeks from returning to the rotation, dependent on how quickly the Cardinals need him in the rotation-although it wouldn't surprise me to see him work out of the bullpen.

Altogether, that is about nine to ten weeks that Wainwright would have been on the shelf. This, with a throwing program that could be relatively vigorous, and began in the middle of July.

All that being understood, I figure to hear that Miller has begun throwing from a short distance at the Indians Spring Training facility (whether it be the new one, or old one I couldn't even guess). At which point, it would probably be another three weeks before Miller was throwing off of a mound, and a total of five weeks before he faces live hitters. At best, Miller could be pitching in a game situation by September 1st.

With how the Indians are playing, it wouldn't surprise me to see them try him in the bullpen once the rosters expand in September. Either that, or for Miller to get a couple of starts, simply to build up his arm for the following season, where he will be expected to contribute to the rotation.


As always, I am looking for information regarding this injury. In a recent Hey Hoynsie at the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Paul Hoynes guessed that the next time Indians fans will get to see Miller pitch, will be during the Arizona Instructional League.

Trade Speculator - Clubhouse Warriors

The Trade Speculator returns to reflect upon two trades that have occurred since the end of the All Star Break. Both trades were relatively small deals, but both will have a valuable enough impact on their respective teams to make them worth discussing.

On July 17th, the Arizona Diamondbacks reacquired Tony Clark from the San Diego Padres in exchange for minor league league pitcher Evan Sribner.

Paul DePodesta, a special assistant for the Padres, wrote his opinion of the trade, an interesting read. According to this entry, DePodesta states that the Padres have been looking at the young pitcher since early this season. So much goes on in baseball that none of us have any idea about.

In my opinion, the Padres did excellent here. They signed Tony Clark for under a million dollars to start this season. While Clark has not been the most outstanding player this season, he has performed at a level slightly above replacement, which is fine for the cost. However, the Padres knew when they signed Clark that the investment was minimal, with the reward being substantial. Giving such a small contract to a veteran player like Clark, a player who is known around the league for being a good clubhouse guy, someone teams look to during this time of year, the signing was an easy one to make.

That the Padres flipped Clark for a prospect only further elevates the value of this preseason signing.

In return, the Padres received 2007 28th round pick Evan Scribner. Scribner played four years for Central Connecticut State University, mostly as a starter. At CCSU, Scribner had a fairly decent career, albeit against weak competition. During his four years there, Scribner posted the following numbers:

WHIP	1.32
K/9	7
K/BB	3.93
ERA	3.34
BAA	0.261
SLGA	0.353

Not terrible numbers, but it explains why he wasn't selected until the 28th round. As a college senior, he didn't have any negotiating leverage, which also could have caused a slight fall at the draft.

Scribner recently turned 23 years old and has had a fairly successful run through the Padres minor leagues. Reaching high A this season Scribner has had a decent amount of success at every level. Keep in mind, however, that the majority of his opponents have been substantially younger and less experienced. However, keeping his walk rate down while racking up strikeouts is a good sign at any age, at any level.

His college strikeout to walk ratio would put him well above league average in that category among Major League pitchers. It isn't impossible to believe that the rate he has posted to date during his professional career wouldn't maintain, or at least come close to this long term.

The scouting reports on Scribner say the same things, a 90mph fastball which tops out around 92 with gusts of wind. He has a 'slow looping' curve, although this doesn't sound as if it is coming off as a positive. Most importantly, Scribner can hit the strike zone.

This isn't the kind of report that makes a person gush, nor will it ever land Scribner on anyones top prospect lists, but he could develop into an adequate major league reliever. Presumably not one with an overly important job. More information should be released about Scribner this offseason.

Overall, I like what the Padres have done here. The cost was minimal, even though the current reward is minimal. That said, it's not as if the Diamondbacks broke the bank here, so overall there isn't a winner or a loser.

However, the Diamondbacks new first base platoon of Chad Tracy and Clark forces Conor Jackson out of position and limits the possibility of the Diamondbacks making a trade for an impact corner outfield bat. But their clubhouse will be strong and thus improves their chances of winning, right?


On July 20th, the Giants agreed to send Ray Durham to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Darren Ford and Steve Hammond. Similar to the Diamondbacks-Padres trade I just examined, this was a team that is out of it, moving an expiring contract for prospects.

My first reaction to this trade was that this trade will immediately help the Brewers. I then became curious as to what 'type' of free agent Ray Durham will be after this season. Given that the Brew Crew are very unlikely to resign the second basemen, it is of major consideration whether Durham will be rated as a type A or B free agent this offseason.

With the free agent depth at second base for this upcoming season, it appears as if Durham will slot in as a type B free agent. This is definitely part and parcel with what the Brewers gave up as they could conceivably end up as gaining on this trade. For now, I will look at what the Brewers currently received.

Ray Durham adds a veteran switch hitter, who prior to this season, had been a superior hitter against lefties then righties. In other words, the Brewers did nothing to improve their current issues against righties. The Brewers are only on the hook for half of Durham's remaining contract, which will cost them about $1.5M.

With others rumored to be available, it seems more as if the Brewers acted quickly rather then getting the best deal out there.

However, it is not as if the Brewers were selling assets which had much, if any, future within the organization. Considering that the corner outfield spots are manned for years to come with Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and while the player the Brewers moved projects long term as a center fielder, we aren't talking about a major change to the overall appearance of this club.

That prospect, Darren Ford, a speedy 22 year old outfield prospect who has been in high A this season, a level he spent much of 2007 at. There truly is not enough one can say about the speed Darren Ford displays as he ranked as the #3 base runner in 2006 and in the top 20 for 2007 according to Baseball Prospectus.

Drawing a sufficient amount of walks to be a major league regular-if not at least a strong 4th outfielder-Ford's major weakness is his inability to make contact. One would think as a 22 year old, repeating this level of baseball, that Ford would be making strides, however, that is not the case, and Ford has the highest strikeout rate of his career (11.8%). That he has shown little to no power only adds emphasis to his inability to control the strike zone.

While still young, with Aaron Rowand around until the end of the 2012 season, Ford has ample time to improve at the plate and at least cut down on the strikeouts. Possibly Rowand can teach Ford a thing or two during Spring Training.

Additionally, the Giants received Steve Hammond, a pitcher who took approximately TWO full seasons to conquer double A. I use the word 'conquer' lightly, as Hammond was hardly deserving of a promotion after his 26th birthday this season.

What little information available about Hammond suggests that he won't be anything more then a 5th starter in a rotation, and even expecting that much out of him is a stretch. The numbers don't lie.

John Sickels at Minor League Ball has rated Hammond as a C, C+, and a C prospect over the last three respective seasons. Two of the instances, Sickels mentions Hammond as a victim of organizational depth. In a third, Sickels calls him an 'underrated arm to watch'.

There are also signs which point to Hammond becoming a reliever. In one report, an author cited a K rate which drops as Hammond goes further into a game. In another piece, Hammond is cited as having neither plus stuff, nor control, lacking an out pitch and velocity. At best, we're talking a project for the Giants.

The Giants come out of this trade with two projects and $1.5M in the bank. This also opens up the roster to allow youngsters Emmanuel Burriss and Eugenio Velez some additional playing time-both should be the Opening Day starters for the Giants in 2009 and offer a nice, young middle infield.

I wonder, however, if the Giants could have received slightly more, while eating the entire contract.

Overall, unlike at Brew Crew Ball, I have to suggest that the Brewers took this deal. Durham is a fine veteran to have on the roster and will offer a bat off the bench that can provide a little pop, with a decent amount of walks. The cost, $1.5M and two prospects which wouldn't have much impact on the team anyways.


The trade market is wide open. There are a lot of buyers and teams still deciding whether they are buyers or sellers. This ought to be one of the more interesting deadline days in recent memory.