"What Would the Outsider Do" - Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals, unlike the last WWOD installment (San Francisco Giants), is a team that I am beginning to appreciate. Despite large amounts of criticism that Nationals GM Jim Bowden receives, he has begun to put together a core of nice, young hitters. Bowden has done especially well to avoid taking on any major contracts, allowing his team time to develop and to spend once he feels they are ready, which may be sooner then most think (image courtesy-sportslogos.net).

The problem with the Nationals is a lack of legitimate minor leaguers and worse yet, young pitching. With an already weak, and disappointing minor league system, the loss of first round draft pick, Aaron Crow, does not make matters any better for this organization even though Bowden will receive a compensatory first round pick in the 2009 draft.

The next major problem with the Nationals sits in the form of some hefty contracts. Contracts that are owed to players so undesirable, it is nearly impossible to imagine the Nationals being able to trade for anything of significance.

During Spring Training, the Nationals could have moved one of Dmitri Young or Nick Johnson, however, the club had both of those players taking on specific roles within the organization. Since then, both have suffered injuries and the duo will be lucky to have played in 100 games-combined! Young can continue to mentor Dukes, while Johnson can continue to build his stock as an American League DH-Riccardi ought to give Bowden a call about that.

Another hefty contract is owed to the surprising batting title contender, Christian Guzman. Unfortunately, Bill Bavasi is out of a job and poor power hitting middle infielders with a high batting average (read: Jose Vidro) are no longer able to be sold. In the mean time, the Nationals will pay Guzman $4M+. Fortunately, it isn't as if Guzman is blocking anyone of significance-in fact, if you own a glove, I hear the Nats are going to hold an open try out for their middle infield (note: fantasy owners, steer clear of Nationals pitchers).

Austin Kearns also owns one of the Nationals few seven figure deals, being owed $8M in 2009 and $10M in 2010. A strong/healthy 2008 would have given the Nationals a chance to deal Kearns, however, as has been the case for the talented outfielders career, staying healthy was an issue. Like Johnson, whatever the Nationals get out of Kearns next season has to be considered as a bonus.

The rotation is youthful although not entirely impressive. There is some potential, and some unrefined arms down the road, but nothing that is overwhelmingly impressive. The Nationals will be playing the free agent market when they decide it is time to contend.

The Nationals are bound for another last place finish. The young players are bound to continue to develop. One of the many toolsy prospects is bound to figure it all out.


What the Nationals don't need:

Big contracts

If we were looking at the 2010 season, I would be okay with this. Signing a type A free agent would cost a second round pick (due to being protected in the first fifteen) but would give the team a legitimate shot. The young players would be at stages of their careers where expectations could be reasonably high.

However, we are looking at 2009. A season which has the Nationals with a very weak middle infielder, and an equally weak relief core. Let's not be surprised if Bowden makes a run at K-Rod.

Outfielders/Corner Infielders

The Nationals are fine with what they have. In fact, I would argue they are better then fine. If there was an extraordinarily young first basemen that became available, making a run at him wouldn't hurt, but otherwise, pocket the money and hold pat.

What the Nationals need:

An 'Ace' in the Making

The Nationals do not have a future ace within their organization. Ross Detwiler is presumably the closest thing to that, although he somewhat stalled in his development during his first full professional season. That is not to say he is being written off, rather, to say that his bar has been lowered, slightly.

Similar to the corner infield, there really isn't that young, high ceiling, pitcher available. Once rosters are sorted out after the post season, a player out of options may come around, until then, the Nats simply have to hope and pray with what they've got.

Middle Infielders

When the Nationals picked up Emilio Bonifacio I didn't understand it. They were giving up a highly valued asset in Jon Rauch, for a fringe prospect in Bonifacio. Despite having incredible speed, Bonifacio will be fortunate to have the career that recently released Felipe Lopez has had. That being said, Bonifacio is a nice, cheap player to own, he just does not have the value of a Jon Rauch.

The Nationals have dealt damaged goods previously, so I suppose it shouldn't surprise anyone if this is the case yet again.

Similar to the situation with pitchers, the Nationals are going to have to wait it out to see what prospects are let go by their parent clubs. Otherwise, the club should look towards a trade, picking up a middle infielder if some team will take Young, Johnson, or Kearns.

Relievers

Of course the Nationals could use some arms for their bullpen. Who couldn't? This should be an area where the Nationals look to buy veterans on one year contracts, and flip them for a profit at the 2009 trade deadline.


With all of that said, the Opening Day lineup I would put on the field if I were Jim Bowden would look as such:

CF - Lastings Milledge
2B - Emilio Bonifacio
RF - Elijah Dukes
1B - Nick Johnson
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
LF - Austin Kearns
SS - Christian Guzman
C - Jesus Flores

The bench would consist of Dmitri Young, Wil Nieves, Willie Harris, Ronnie Belliard, and Kevin Mench.

Unfortunately, the Nationals are stuck with some of their problems; namely, Kearns and Guzman. Of course, for a rebuilding team, players such as Young and Belliard are expendable as well. Despite this, unless someone is willing to take on these players entire contracts and send over a young pitcher, the Nationals are stuck.

Given that I try and create the most realistic scenario's possible, I find it impossible that the Nationals can move these players and help the clubs future.

However, as I mentioned previously, Bowden is beginning to put together a nice young nuclues centered around Ryan Zimmerman. Milledge and Dukes are two exceptional talents who are both coming into their own this season. With another year of seasoning, these two should be ready to become major contributors.

There are two prospects whom I view as being major league ready and who could produce at least league average statistics. The first, being ex-Arizona Cardinal offensive lineman (kidding) Leonard Davis, the second being toolsy, and finally developed Rogearvin Bernadina. If the Nationals could move Johnson, Davis should be given the opportunity to play every day at first, and similarly for Bernadina in left field if Kearns were to be traded. In fact, I contemplated with allowing Davis and Bernadina onto the clubs bench however felt the team was better in the long term allowing those two to get regular at bats.

The rotation is young and has had a fairly nice and surprising season. Nationals Park is not the pitching friendly ballpark that RFK was, but I'm certain Jose Guillen would be pulling out the measuring tape for this ballpark as well. The rotation for 2009 should look as follows:

John Lannan
Tim Redding
Shairon Martis
Colin Balester
Kip Wells

As mentioned, the Nationals could use a little lady luck landing a legitimate starter. Hopefully a starter runs out of options elsewhere or a young pitcher becomes too costly. Otherwise, the club will have to go season to season with reclamation projects like Odalis Perez (why didn't they trade him??) and my 2009 pick, Kip Wells.

Wells' fastball velocity has been sitting at 92.0mph in a small sample this season. While his control certainly looks to have left him after suffering through several injury plagued seasons, there's no harm in giving the 31 year old another shot.

Young lefty John Lannan has developed into quite the nice pitcher, and should be a long term option for the rotation. In addition to Lannan, Shairon Martis has shown enough in the minors this season to have him be considered as an end of the rotation starter, at least.

With word that ex-closer Chad Cordero, a player that used to be on everyone's radar, is going to be released at the end of the 2008 season, the Nationals bullpen will take quite a hit from the one they had entering this season. Gone are Cordero, Rauch, and Luis Ayala. What was once a fairly steady, and nearly certain bullpen, is now shaky and full of question marks:

CL - John Hanrahan
SU - Steven Shell
RP - Jesus Colome
RP - Saul Rivera
RP - Juan Cruz
RP - Joe Beimel
RP - Garret Mock

The idea here, is to build a bullpen with live arms. The problem here, is both Cruz and Beimel will come at a high cost. Thus, this bullpen is constructed with the hope that Cruz and Beimel can be lured to Washington as the teams closer and set up duo, something no other major league team could offer. 'Promising' the closer/set up gig to these two players could be enough to sign them to one year contracts at a fairly reasonable rate.

Since both Cruz and Beimel are fairly strong relievers, there is little reason to believe the pitchers could not succeed for the Nationals in these roles. Thus, the rationale behind signing these two arms is to move them at the deadline.

Again, this is all hypothetical and there is no guarantee. However, this is the best and cheapest route for the Nationals to invest in free agency with a return greater then simply on field production.


Similar to the team I put together for the Giants, the Nationals are not nearly ready to compete. This is a team that should be putting pieces together-whether complimentary, or otherwise-in an attempt to build around Zimm, Dukes, and Milledge.

The team can begin to think about how their team will shake out for the 2010 season. What pitchers they want to keep around. Which prospects will invariably be apart of the team at some point in 2010.

At which point, Bowden would be justified in going after a top young pitcher (see John Lackey and/or Yu Darvish) and a top young middle of the order bat (ie Prince Fielder who may price himself out of Milwaukee).

However, all of that can only take place if Zimm, Dukes, and Milledge prove to be worthy cornerstones. If they do not continue to develop, or run into some injury issues, the Nationals will have to start all over. Such is the case for a rebuilding organization.


Next up: WWOD to the Baltimore Orioles?

"What Would the Outsider Do" - San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants have been a major surprise this season. In 2007, the team finished with 71 wins as a team that features one of the most fearsome hitters in the league, and another that is comically allergic to walks. While last years team underperformed to the tune of -6 wins, this years team has overperformed to the the tune of +3 (entering the game of September 8). Other then bringing in a couple castoffs, the Giants only addition entering the 2008 season was Aaron Rowand, a signing that made most scratch their heads. The 30 year old Rowand has had a nice season, although he has not warranted the contract the Giants front office handed to him.

Aside from the Rowand mistake, the Giants appear to be going in the right direction. The team has finally decided to give some of their youngsters legitimate playing time and moved on from veteran Ray Durham. Randy Winn, Rich Aurilla, Bengie Molina, and Dave Roberts should all receive new jerseys for the 2009 season as the Giants take the last step towards completely rebuilding.

With a strong set of drafts the last two seasons, the Giants have been setting up their talent pool nicely. Promising youngsters Travis Ishikawa, Nate Schierholtz, and Pablo Sandoval are proving they are ready for major playing time in 2009 as the Giants take their time rebuilding around a young and very strong rotation.

What the Giants don't need:

-Costly Veterans

While bringing in a Raul Ibanez may help the 2009 Giants win a handful more games, the $10M+, 3-5 year contract it will take to bring the old guy to town is something the Giants should avoid. Let the young kids play it out for a season to see what you've got.

It has always been my perspective that a team not ready to contend should pocket whatever money they had intended to dish out in free agency and spend it two or three years down the road. While the economic reality of this is slightly different, if a team like the Giants said, 'lets kick up our pay roll $10-15M in 2009', why not save that money for two or three years down the road where it can represent a $20M increase in spending?

Another example of this. Instead of overpaying for a veteran free agent, why not get twice as much for half as long. That is, a veteran like Ibanez and his assumed $10M contract costs the team $10M. But at the midway mark, $10M saved could 'buy' a $20M player.

-Starting Pitchers

Probably the most costly position in the majors, the Giants have a fine young trio in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez with a few highly touted prospects no more then a year away from throwing big league innings. Oh, and apparently Barry Zito...

What the Giants need:

-Corner Infielders

Despite Conor Gillaspie clearly being a ways away, the fact that the club saw enough in him to bring him up after 105 plate appearances shows that the Giants front office is willing to be agressive with the youngster.

What were you doing before your 18th birthday? Playing professional ball? How about doing anything professional? Angel Villalona turned 18 less then a month ago and is more then holding his own. Like Gillaspie he is at least 3 seasons away however stands as one of the bright stars in this seemingly impressive system.

Bringing in Hank Blalock or Joe Crede for 2-4 years wouldn't be a terrible idea. Both are relatively youthful and both are coming off of an injury plagued season. Crede, specifically, plays some nice defense and would be a nice 'veteran presence' for Gillaspie and Villalona.

-Young Power Hitters

Since it is going to be a couple of years before the Giants can legitimately think about contending, signing the aforementioned Raul Ibanez or even an Adam Dunn would not be a wise decision. For Dunn specifically, he is on the down side of his career, by the time the Giants are ready, he will be not much more then a big contract. That aside, there is no denying that this team needs to add some power.

The aim here should be a corner outfielder such as Juan Rivera or Wily Mo Pena. Both still have a couple of prime years remaining and Pena specifically, still has enough potential to develope into a valuable long term player.

-Inexpensive Veteran Catcher

In Bengie Molina, the Giants have an extremely valuable asset to trade. Molina is not terribly expensive, and provides a lot of offensive potential from behind the plate. His defensive play has always been fairly solid and would be attractive to a lot of major league teams-specifically, Boston comes to mind. The Giants would be wise to trade him for a low level, high ceiling prospect, if at all possible. A middle infielder would be ideal.

However, that would open up a hole as the Giants would be without a backup catcher. Bringing in a backstop that is capable of catching 40-65 games in order to allow Sandoval some rest, as well as time at his other positions, first and third base. Michael Barrett has had a nightmare season and truly does not deserve much of a shot after how he has played the last two seasons. Which is perfect for the Giants who should be looking to save, rather then spend.


With all that said, the Opening Day lineup I would put on the field if I were running the Giants would look as follows:

SS - Emmanuel Burriss
RF - Nate Schierholtz
CF - Aaron Rowand
C - Pablo Sandoval
3B - Hank Blalock
LF - Wily Mo Pena
1B - Travis Ishikawa
2B - Eugenio Velez

There is no argument that this team will not light the world on fire. Fact is, this offensive unit may actually be inferior to the one the Giants are currently running on the field. However, this gives the organization some answers and direction. The bench will be filled with the likes of Fred Lewis, Brian Horwitz, Brian Bocock, Ivan Ochoa, Michael Barrett, and John Bowker.

Obviously the pitching staff is a little easier to put together and is clearly a strength of this team and organization:

Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Barry Zito
Joseph Martinez/Adam Cowart

Neither Martinez nor Cowart have pitched above Double A but neither seem to have much of a future within this deep organization. Owning average to solid strikeout to walk ratio's, and a groundout to fly out rate of nearly 2:1, both pitchers could be adequate major league starters.

If the Giants go this route, I would start Martinez in triple A while giving Cowart the first shot at big league hitters. He projects more as a reliever but is worth trying out in the rotation of a lost organization.

The Giants bullpen, like the rotation, is young and fairly loaded. With an established young closer the Giants have a luxury very few rebuilding teams possess. That being said, bullpens fluctuate a fair amount and it is difficult to rely on many relievers from season to season, the Giants have a stable young core of relievers that will hold the few leads this team builds.

CL - Brian Wilson
SU - Alex Hinshaw
RP - Merkin Valdez
RP - Tyler Walker
RP - Sergio Romo
LR - Keiichi Yabu

Similar to the hitters, this is a group that needs to prove itself. While the four youngsters (Wilson, Hinshaw, Valdez, and Romo) all have potential, the Giants should not hesistate to axe any one of them as soon as they struggle.


This Giants team is not going to go off and challenge for a playoff spot. This Giants team is not going to be pretty to watch on most nights. However, this Giants team is in a rebuilding mode. There are players to build around, the organization simply needs to figure out which players to keep during the building process.

With some nice prospects a few years from the bigs, the Giants have time to wait. Had the club not broken the bank on Rowand and Zito, for a combined $26.5M in 2009, this team could be a bit more aggressive in the free agent market. Consequently, the team could invariably be a little more competitive.

However, that is not the case. Thus, this Giants team needs to act like this Giants team. A team that is 3 years away.


Next up: WWOD to the Washington Nationals?

"What Would the Outsider Do" - New Series

Posting has been sporadic, at best. As of today, that will come to an end.

The Outsiders Look will begin a series that takes a look at the current situation of a team and asserts what I would do if I were in the front office hot seat. This series will 'fix' any glaring problems within an organization and provide a hypothetical opening day lineup.

Salaries and salary constraints will not be entirely ignored, however this facet will also not be analyzed from an in depth perspective and will only play a marginal factor in creating an 'ideal' lineup. That is, while every team would certainly love to have CC Sabathia for the 2009 season (although I would be weary of signing him), only one team is able to have the big man and few teams can logically afford him. Thus, while adding Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jason Giambi would make the Nationals a significantly superior team, it isn't going to happen.

Additionally, long term potential and organizational depth will be looked at. The Royals, for example, are not one piece from being a championship team, nor would the front office in Kansas City consider moving Alex Gordon and Billy Butler for upgrades today, that would hurt them tomorrow. Furthermore, an organization with a top teir catcher in the system (read: Baltimore Orioles-Matt Wieters) isn't going to break the bank to bring in a Pudge Rodriguez.

Long term potential will also be looked at from a, 'can this team win' perspective. There are certain teams that have a plan and I would hate to assert that I know exactly what that plan is, and/or ignore that plan altogether. With that in mind, a player like Wily Mo Pena will have more value to a team like the Giants then he would to a team like the Mets. Presumably, the Giants front office will not be reading WWOD and Pena will go on to be bench fodder with a team like the Cardinals while the Giants fail to score runs in the air.


What a perfect segway into the first installment of WWOD. On Wednesday I will take a look at the San Francisco Giants and what I would do with their team. The series will begin with teams that are 'out of it' and work towards a conclusion around the World Series.

Instant Replay Debate

I truly and honestly do not understand how the committee that decided Adam LaRoche's 'hit' against CC Sabathia on Sunday, August 31st could use 'replays' of the play and save face. Consider that instant replay, according to MLB rules, is intended for 'boundary calls'. Boundary calls, do not include questionable singles.

Thus, the committee members should not have utilized instant replay nor should a committee member be allowed to chime in on the situation if they had seen the play on more then one instance.

According to MLB.com,

According to MLB's statement, "The committee held an extensive and constructive discussion after viewing footage of the play in question and considering the documentation presented by the Brewers. It was the collective decision of the committee that the judgment of the scorer was not 'clearly erroneous,' which is the standard set forth in Official Scoring Rule 10.01(a), and thus did not meet the criteria for League reversal of the call."

So apparently instant replay will be used for boundary calls and potential scoring errors. I know Ques-tec is still set up in a lot of ballparks, is there any need to not reboot that system and eliminate umpires altogether? I hear swimming has a pretty decent invention that could be utilized for plays on the bases.

Instant Replay 0, Brandon and Logic 1

Instant Replay has reared its ugly face into a meaningful game, the results, as anticipated, nothing. Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees hit a 2 run home run off Tampa Bay Rays closer Troy Percival in the 9th inning of a 6-3 Yanks lead. The umpires, who initially called the ball a home run, discovered after over 2 minutes of review that the call would stand due to a lack of conclusive evidence against-something I have always hated during instant replays.

The final line of the game, 8-4. A Yankees win. While the Rays managed to tack on an extra run, the Yankees did not send their dominant closer to the bump for the bottom of the 9th. It's safe to say the three run lead would have been safe.

So what did instant replay do? Can proponents of instant replay count this as a victory? Unfortunately, they cannot. While the Yankees were able to save Rivera's arm for a night, at this point in the season, that is the least of the ballclubs worries. Although, I suppose if they go on a seven game win streak where each game is separated by 3 runs or fewer, I will eat my words. But what is the likelihood of that?


As I mentioned previously, if 'technology' is so advanced that fringe calls can be made for home runs and fouls, what is the holdup in adding this to balls and strikes?