Wednesday, September 10, 2008

"What Would the Outsider Do" - San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants have been a major surprise this season. In 2007, the team finished with 71 wins as a team that features one of the most fearsome hitters in the league, and another that is comically allergic to walks. While last years team underperformed to the tune of -6 wins, this years team has overperformed to the the tune of +3 (entering the game of September 8). Other then bringing in a couple castoffs, the Giants only addition entering the 2008 season was Aaron Rowand, a signing that made most scratch their heads. The 30 year old Rowand has had a nice season, although he has not warranted the contract the Giants front office handed to him.

Aside from the Rowand mistake, the Giants appear to be going in the right direction. The team has finally decided to give some of their youngsters legitimate playing time and moved on from veteran Ray Durham. Randy Winn, Rich Aurilla, Bengie Molina, and Dave Roberts should all receive new jerseys for the 2009 season as the Giants take the last step towards completely rebuilding.

With a strong set of drafts the last two seasons, the Giants have been setting up their talent pool nicely. Promising youngsters Travis Ishikawa, Nate Schierholtz, and Pablo Sandoval are proving they are ready for major playing time in 2009 as the Giants take their time rebuilding around a young and very strong rotation.

What the Giants don't need:

-Costly Veterans

While bringing in a Raul Ibanez may help the 2009 Giants win a handful more games, the $10M+, 3-5 year contract it will take to bring the old guy to town is something the Giants should avoid. Let the young kids play it out for a season to see what you've got.

It has always been my perspective that a team not ready to contend should pocket whatever money they had intended to dish out in free agency and spend it two or three years down the road. While the economic reality of this is slightly different, if a team like the Giants said, 'lets kick up our pay roll $10-15M in 2009', why not save that money for two or three years down the road where it can represent a $20M increase in spending?

Another example of this. Instead of overpaying for a veteran free agent, why not get twice as much for half as long. That is, a veteran like Ibanez and his assumed $10M contract costs the team $10M. But at the midway mark, $10M saved could 'buy' a $20M player.

-Starting Pitchers

Probably the most costly position in the majors, the Giants have a fine young trio in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez with a few highly touted prospects no more then a year away from throwing big league innings. Oh, and apparently Barry Zito...

What the Giants need:

-Corner Infielders

Despite Conor Gillaspie clearly being a ways away, the fact that the club saw enough in him to bring him up after 105 plate appearances shows that the Giants front office is willing to be agressive with the youngster.

What were you doing before your 18th birthday? Playing professional ball? How about doing anything professional? Angel Villalona turned 18 less then a month ago and is more then holding his own. Like Gillaspie he is at least 3 seasons away however stands as one of the bright stars in this seemingly impressive system.

Bringing in Hank Blalock or Joe Crede for 2-4 years wouldn't be a terrible idea. Both are relatively youthful and both are coming off of an injury plagued season. Crede, specifically, plays some nice defense and would be a nice 'veteran presence' for Gillaspie and Villalona.

-Young Power Hitters

Since it is going to be a couple of years before the Giants can legitimately think about contending, signing the aforementioned Raul Ibanez or even an Adam Dunn would not be a wise decision. For Dunn specifically, he is on the down side of his career, by the time the Giants are ready, he will be not much more then a big contract. That aside, there is no denying that this team needs to add some power.

The aim here should be a corner outfielder such as Juan Rivera or Wily Mo Pena. Both still have a couple of prime years remaining and Pena specifically, still has enough potential to develope into a valuable long term player.

-Inexpensive Veteran Catcher

In Bengie Molina, the Giants have an extremely valuable asset to trade. Molina is not terribly expensive, and provides a lot of offensive potential from behind the plate. His defensive play has always been fairly solid and would be attractive to a lot of major league teams-specifically, Boston comes to mind. The Giants would be wise to trade him for a low level, high ceiling prospect, if at all possible. A middle infielder would be ideal.

However, that would open up a hole as the Giants would be without a backup catcher. Bringing in a backstop that is capable of catching 40-65 games in order to allow Sandoval some rest, as well as time at his other positions, first and third base. Michael Barrett has had a nightmare season and truly does not deserve much of a shot after how he has played the last two seasons. Which is perfect for the Giants who should be looking to save, rather then spend.

With all that said, the Opening Day lineup I would put on the field if I were running the Giants would look as follows:

SS - Emmanuel Burriss
RF - Nate Schierholtz
CF - Aaron Rowand
C - Pablo Sandoval
3B - Hank Blalock
LF - Wily Mo Pena
1B - Travis Ishikawa
2B - Eugenio Velez

There is no argument that this team will not light the world on fire. Fact is, this offensive unit may actually be inferior to the one the Giants are currently running on the field. However, this gives the organization some answers and direction. The bench will be filled with the likes of Fred Lewis, Brian Horwitz, Brian Bocock, Ivan Ochoa, Michael Barrett, and John Bowker.

Obviously the pitching staff is a little easier to put together and is clearly a strength of this team and organization:

Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Barry Zito
Joseph Martinez/Adam Cowart

Neither Martinez nor Cowart have pitched above Double A but neither seem to have much of a future within this deep organization. Owning average to solid strikeout to walk ratio's, and a groundout to fly out rate of nearly 2:1, both pitchers could be adequate major league starters.

If the Giants go this route, I would start Martinez in triple A while giving Cowart the first shot at big league hitters. He projects more as a reliever but is worth trying out in the rotation of a lost organization.

The Giants bullpen, like the rotation, is young and fairly loaded. With an established young closer the Giants have a luxury very few rebuilding teams possess. That being said, bullpens fluctuate a fair amount and it is difficult to rely on many relievers from season to season, the Giants have a stable young core of relievers that will hold the few leads this team builds.

CL - Brian Wilson
SU - Alex Hinshaw
RP - Merkin Valdez
RP - Tyler Walker
RP - Sergio Romo
LR - Keiichi Yabu

Similar to the hitters, this is a group that needs to prove itself. While the four youngsters (Wilson, Hinshaw, Valdez, and Romo) all have potential, the Giants should not hesistate to axe any one of them as soon as they struggle.

This Giants team is not going to go off and challenge for a playoff spot. This Giants team is not going to be pretty to watch on most nights. However, this Giants team is in a rebuilding mode. There are players to build around, the organization simply needs to figure out which players to keep during the building process.

With some nice prospects a few years from the bigs, the Giants have time to wait. Had the club not broken the bank on Rowand and Zito, for a combined $26.5M in 2009, this team could be a bit more aggressive in the free agent market. Consequently, the team could invariably be a little more competitive.

However, that is not the case. Thus, this Giants team needs to act like this Giants team. A team that is 3 years away.

Next up: WWOD to the Washington Nationals?

BallHype: hype it up!


RotoHead said...

Lewis is as close to a lock to keep his position as there is on this team, and Winn looks like he's staying. I don't think they'll bring in a corner-OF. The Blalock 3B idea sounds okay, but not sure if he has the glove or health to stay at the hot corner though.

Also I think you're forgetting Noah Lowry could make a comeback and fill that fifth spot, but who am I kidding. Nice writeup overall, but I would have liked to have seen some outside-the-box thinking with regards to the MI spots. That's the real area of need.

Brandon Heikoop said...

Thanks for reading.

A couple things:
1. This is what I would do if I was running the organization. Trading Winn would be high on my list, as well as utilizing Lewis as a 4th outfielders.

2. Blalock was a slight oversight. Swap his name for Crede in the lineup.

3. I truly dislike Lowry and would demand that he proves himself to the organization.

4. MI. I'm actually fairly high on what the Giants currently have up the middle. I'd like to give Burris and Velez a full season tryout.

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