Sunday, May 4, 2008

Take a Chance on Me - Week 6 Edition

The return of Take a Chance on Me focuses on a reliever with closer written all over him, and my favorite player on the verge of breaking out. Don't miss the train on these two highly undervalued players in fantasy leagues and check out TACOM: Week 6.

This week, I will also look at how my TACOM picks have performed and whether they were bargains or busts. I see a lot of fantasy columns which will reflect upon this type of stuff a week after the fact and I find that ridiculous. However, I will come forward and assert that some of my picks have been temporary suggestions. Players who are playing too bad to not turn things around.

Here's the review:
Week One
Manny Parra - REACHED ON ERROR! I'm not willing to pack it in with Parra, despite dropping him in every league. The kid has simply been unlucky, boasting a .385 BABIP despite having a skill set that would suggest an ability to beat league average BABIP. Consider a 100 point drop in that category inevitable. The walk rate is concerning but nothing Parra couldn't deal with. Simply keep an eye on Parra.
Ty Wigginton - WALK! At this point, Wigginton hasn't done anything to make me look smart, an injury will do that. But in the games he has played, he has done close to what I anticipated. If you need a middle infielder with some pop, Wigginton is still highly suggested by this guy.

Week Two
Pedro Feliz - BALL! I cannot suggest cutting ties with Feliz who necessarily played well but has also been terribly unlucky. His BABIP is over 60 points lower then his career average and Feliz has played worse then expected on the road. Assuming that turns around, Feliz would be sitting at .270+ and 5 or 6 home runs. The walks and lack of strikeouts (small sample size, obviously) are nice to see. If you are in a league with CI/MI and 5 OFer, check the waiver wire, Feliz will be a bargain still.
Elijah Dukes - Entering the season, I had visions of a big season for Dukes. At this time, he was the uncontested LFer in Washington. Apparently he is taking the Dmitri Young mentoring to a whole new level and has joined Meat Hook on the DL. I suppose this is the equivalent of a 9th inning rally being stopped by a CAUGHT STEALING!

Week Three
Jake Westbrook - WALK! Admittedly, I jinxed Westbrook's season. After I touted him, he went off to have two more quality starts and began to show signs of the K rate he displayed in Spring. As is, the numbers point to Westbrook being rather fortunate, but as a pitcher who was available in the amount of leagues he was, it wasn't a bad suggestion.
Luke Scott - GIDP! Looks like I missed on Scott. If you took my advice and have not cut ties on Scott yet, I suggest you jump ship already. I wasn't foolish enough to believe that Scott's batting average would hover near .400, but I figured the drop in BA would result in an increase in ISO. Zero home runs later, and apparently I was wrong. Scott is hardly worth watching at this point.

Week Four
Felipe Lopez - HIT! This pickup went part and parcel with a league I am in where I had Jason Bartlett underachieving by a great deal. I stuck it out with Bartlett, only to see Lopez get scooped up a day or two later in my league. In hindsight, I probably should have jumped ship with Bartlett and took anchor with Lopez.
Daric Barton - BALL! Barton is still struggling to find his power stroke and I cannot confirm what the issue is. Barton is putting the ball into play the same way he did in 2007 when he sat with a .292 ISO. The problem, Barton has gone from a slightly above league average HR/FB rate to a pathetically low figure. Stash him on your bench until the weather warms up.

Week Five
It is too soon to tell what the future holds for these two players, but I was incredibly high on Navarro (HIT!) entering the season and that remains true today. I am a little disappointed in his lack of power, but yesterday he was moved to the 6 spot in the batting order, which should mean big things for his RBI opportunities.
Jonathan Sanchez (HIT!) was also a player I was high on entering the season and he has not disappointed. If he is available in your leagues, there are fewer then 40 pitchers I would consider keeping over Sanchez right now.

Glossary
HIT! - Stick with the guy, pick him up or consider trading for him.
WALK! - Keep an eye on him or in pick him up in deep leagues.
BALL! - Needs to be watched, can help in areas and can be played in certain match ups.
ROE! - Worth grabbing in deep leagues.
GIDP! - Cut your losses and forget this happened.
CS! - Not worth the time and energy.

Rating
Obviously I am slightly generous, but considering the players I suggest and their availability, my early season TACOM players can be deemed a success. For the most part, the players did more good then harm.

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