Division by Division Preview - NL East

To be a shock jock…On ESPN Radio this morning Colin Cowherd reported a study conducted by CBS that reported those with a college education and who make more then fifty thousand dollars are more likely to believe that Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds should not be allowed into Baseball’s Hall of Fame. Although there are a lot of questions regarding the survey performed, the conclusions are interesting.

The reason why I opened this Division Preview with this is because I want to remind readers that an opinion and conclusion can be formed on any basis. While the ‘wealthy’ and ‘educated’ believe that Clemens and Bonds cheated so much that they should not be eligible for the HOF is laughable. However, this does not mean that those who entered this survey are wrong, although I would argue they are misinformed.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
I am a big fan of what the Phil’s are bringing to the table offensively. This club had an impressive turnaround in 2007 and surprised a lot of people following what was thought to be a rebuilding year after giving up Bobby Abreu for salary relief the previous season. The Phillies are improved from the team that was on the field for Opening Day 2007 and that team won the division.

The rotation is much improved over the starters they had at the end of the year last season. Bret Myers is back in the rotation after starting only three games in 2007. Hamels is one of the most promising youngsters in baseball and if he can find a way to be healthy this season, should give the Phillies one of the best one-two punches in all of baseball. One has to wonder what is going on with the rest of the rotation, but it appears as though they have just enough to let the bullpen and hitters to win the division.

The bullpen should be a strength from start to finish this season. Tom Gordon will get the ball in the ninth while Brad Lidge. Obviously the Phillies are banking on Lidge being the closer he has shown he is capable of being. It will be interesting to see if JC “free pass” Romero can repeat one of the most fortunate seasons in the league last year.

Even with the loss of Rowand, I believe that this club will be better offensively in 2008 then they were in 2007. Consider not only the injury to Chase Utley but the slow start of Ryan Howard last season. Consider that the Phil’s may have the best RF in all of baseball if the platoon works out the way the splits suggest. This team will put up crooked numbers with regularity. Their home ballpark will again aide this team and its new hitters.

Major Addition: Pedro Feliz – After getting fewer then 20 home runs from their third basemen in 2007, the Phillies finally have a player that can be a threat in this deep lineup. Feliz should hit 5^th or 6^th instead of 3^rd or 4^th which alone should improve his chances at breaking out. Moving to Citizens Bank Ballpark will only further improve his numbers and 30 home runs are very likely from this new acquisition. This signing may go down as one of the top 3 or 4 moves from the off season.

Major Subtraction: Jon Lieber – While his addition to the Cubs is essentially a non-factor, leaving the Phillies takes away depth and will force the club to utilize some terrible pitchers in spot start situations.

Breakout Candidate: Shane Victorino – Missing 30 games and having to play hurt in others definitely stunted the season Victorino was having. In fantasy drafts Carl Crawford is taken with one of the first 20 picks yet Victorino is being taken some 80 picks later. I’m not quite willing to suggest Victorino is the equivalent to Crawford, but if Shane can stay healthy this season, WATCH OUT!

2. Atlanta Braves
How many teams can lose a type B free agent and not even feel the effects of it? I am not entirely certain why the Braves went after Mark Kotsay, but possibly the hype of many years ago will finally prove to be valid. Give this team a weekend series against the Mets and it is tough to imagine many New Yorkers tuning in on Sunday to watch their Mets being run over by the Braves pitching.

Atlanta has a capable, old and talented rotation. The top two starters will provide outstanding production and can go head to head with the starting two of any team in the league. Jair Jurrjens has the potential to be an outstanding pitching in the National League. If he can maintain his control and keep allowing his fielders to do the work, he should have a career close to that of teammate Tim Hudson. And fifth starter Mike Hampton may be as good as it gets, if not in the league, then at least the division. Consider that the worst NRA Hampton owned in the 2.5 seasons prior to his injury (4.37) would have put him at #26 in the National League during the 2007 season.

The bullpen could be excellent or terrible. If Soriano can throw all season without issue, he should be one of the top 3 or 4 closers in the NL. Mike Gonzalez will be back around mid-season and should provide a solid boost to the bullpen. Outside of that, the Braves will hope for further development from the youngsters they are going with. Not bringing in a veteran, although a good decision in the long run may be the reason this team lags behind in 2008.

Offensively, I look for the Braves to be better in 2008 then they were in 2007 despite the subtraction of both Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria. The development of Francouer, McCann, Johnson and a full season of Teixeira will more then make up for whatever the club had last season. However, this team is not without fault offensively, as similar to their bullpen, the club lacks reliable depth. An injury to oft-injured Chipper Jones could completely derail the Braves hopes in 2008.

Major Addition: Jair Jurrjens – I wrote about him above and will stick with my comments. Jurrjens has solid stuff which enabled him to cruise through the minor leagues. I cannot see a way that the Tigers do not regret trading him away, no matter how good their 2008 rotation is and no matter how much Renteria brings to the table. Interestingly, the Braves essentially acquired Jurrjens for failed prospect Andy Marte.

Major Subtraction: Octavio Dotel – This is the veteran presence I was referring to when I discussed the bullpen earlier. While the ChiSox overpaid for Dotel’s services and gave him far too many years, Dotel is still extremely valuable and would have proven to be a season long stabilizer for the Braves.

Breakout Candidate: Jeff Francouer – Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus did an outstanding article on Frenchy in the middle of January. Since that point I have been sold on the kid yet unable to pull the trigger on him in any fantasy drafts. 35 home runs are likely.

3. New York Mets
I’ve already discussed my displeasure for old teams with the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox. The Mets are no different and if not for a devastatingly terrible bottom of the division, I would consider ranking the Mets lower. Offensively the club is going to struggle to remain healthy. Defensively the club is old and may end up being one of the worst in the league. Their pitching staff has a lot of talent, but pitching is never a sure thing and should rarely be counted on.

Adding Johan Santana gave the Mets a legitimate #1, truly legitimate; as in the best in baseball. Pitching at Shea in the National League should do for Santana what moving to Arizona did for Randy Johnson. Pedro Martinez looked great essentially rehabbing in 2007, but his velocity dropped for at least a third straight season and his reliance on a curveball all be disappeared (courtesy Fan Graphs). As much as I like the guy, he is the furthest thing from a guarantee this season. This leads to the Mets reliance on Perez and Maine, neither of whom should be relied on for much more then #5-type numbers in 2008. The loss of Glavine will be felt as well as the injury to 75 year old El Duqe. Expect the Mets to further weaken their minor league system in an attempt to buy the division in 2008.

The bullpen is one of my favorite in baseball. Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano and Schoeneweis make for an incredible deep top of the bullpen. Two of my favorites, Burgos and Sanchez will start their seasons on the disabled list. Although this is not a debilitating blow, although it is one that will need to be monitored throughout the system as the Mets will not be able to afford many other injuries. Joe Smith is a guy to watch out for this year as I believe the Mets will give him a larger and larger role as the season goes on.

Offensively the Mets have three of the best weapons in the Majors. Wright, Reyes and Beltran give the Mets and their opponents a very difficult top of the order. However that is essentially where it stops. Age, injuries and inefficiency will derail any substantial runs the team may go on in an inning. While Alou, Delgado and Church are all capable hitters, expecting any one of them to be at 100% for 120-130 games is irrational. Thus, Moises Alou for 110 games plus Angel Pagan for 52 is essentially as bad of a left field as the Giant have.

Major Addition: Johan Santana – I probably don’t even need to waste my time with this. And despite my belief that the Mets overpaid (both in dollars and prospects) for his services, but for the 2008 season, he should make Met fans forget about the cost.

Major Subtraction: Tom Glavine – Essentially a wash with Santana’s arrival, losing Glavine weakens the rotation. A close runner up could be the loss of Paul LoDuca, whom despite his attitude; LoDuca is still at least league average offensively. His replacement, Brian Schneider may be just as well served not swinging at all. If the Mets are worried about defensive production, they should have started elsewhere.

Breakout Candidate: Joe Smith – Having had an extremely successful rookie campaign, expect Smith to breakout with additional responsibilities placed upon him. Look for Smith to vulture some saves and even be a consistent reliever in the 7^th and possibly even the 8^th inning.

4. Washington Nationals
Unfortunately the Nationals are without much of a farm system and worse yet, haven’t any reliable arms with the big club. However, the club is stacked with high ceiling hitters and has an ample amount of potential trade chips. Felipe Lopez, Dmitri Young and Wily Mo Pena are three such players whom are going to have to put in a lot of work in order to earn full time roles with the club in 2008. Either that, or luck out with injuries to their teammates. Expect at least one of the three to be moved for minor league pitching.

If I sat down with Nats GM Jim Bowden, before I even introduced myself I would ask him why he released John Patterson. I can accept that he may not have fit into the teams plans for 2008, but how Bowden did not make a trade, just get something for Patterson is beyond me, especially for this ball club. Outside of that, the Nationals haven’t any pitchers that a Major League team would fear meeting in any game of a series-in fact, the Nationals currently have only 4 pitchers listed on their MLB.com depth chart. The signing of Perez was a good one and he had a nice Opening Day start which could prove a sign for things to come.

There is not a whole lot of excitement in the bullpen, but when you have a rotation like the Nationals do, expecting to have many 7^th, 8^th or 9^th inning leads is senseless. However, between Rivera, Rauch, Colume, Cordero and Ayala, the Nats have a decent bunch that should allow the club to squeak out wins on the rare occasion their starters have a quality start.

Offensively, the club has as much potential as anyone in the Majors. That is not to say that the club is going to go on to lead the league in runs, but the Nats are well on their way to building a winning club. Ryan Zimmerman, Lasting Milledge, and Elijah Dukes are some of the most talented youngsters in the league, watch for each of them to make considerable strides in 2008. Austin Kearns and Nick Johnson are de facto veterans who put up tough at bats and have some solid offensive potential. Watch out for Kearns as his home/road splits were ridiculous in 2007.

Major Addition: Elijah Dukes – While Milledge will probably be the better major leaguer in the short and long term, the Nats acquired Dukes for NOTHING. Agreed, the cost of Milledge was not a whole lot, Dukes was brought aboard for nothing. In 2007, Dukes, the then 23 year old, hit 10 home runs in 182 at bats, which prorates out to 33 home runs over the course of 600 at bats. In an easier league, no longer as a rookie, 30 home runs is definitely achievable for Dukes with full playing time. His strikeout to walk ratio was incredible for a 23 year old rookie, which is evidence enough for me that Dukes is capable of being an excellent everyday hitter.

Major Subtraction: John Patterson – When a team drops their best pitcher one has to wonder what is going on. Although Patterson did not add much in 2007, he is still young enough to offer up some solid potential.

Breakout Candidate: Austin Kearns – It feels as if Kearns has been around forever and put his potential on display year after year. This year, Kearns gets to leave RFK where he is a career .727 slugging outfielder or 100 points lower then he hit on the road in 2007. If the new ballpark is about an average hitter’s park, expect Kearns to return as a .300 hitter with 25-30 home runs as his ceiling.

5. Florida Marlins
The Marlins are going to be dreadful in 2008. However, even if they did not move Willis or Cabrera the Marlins would have been dreadful while profiting a lot less money this coming season. That said, the amount of players and potential they received from the Tigers is tremendous. The Marlins GM also did well to bring aboard youngsters whom other teams had given up on, namely Jorge Cantu.

The rotation has a lot of upside despite a heck of a lot of injuries. 2008 isn’t going to matter for the Marlins anyways, so there is no need to rush back Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, etc. Really, there isn’t much to write here. Mark Hendrickson is said to be the Opening Day starter and I would be wasting my time and yours by going into detail about that. Andrew Miller shouldn’t be with the big league club this year, but the Marlins don’t have many other healthy options and his service clock is already going.

I like this bullpen. Although, like the Nationals, how much value does a good bullpen do this club? Kevin Gregg is a nice, yet unspectacular closer. Miller, Tankersley, Lindstrom and Kensing are all nice, young and cheap relievers, but if there isn’t a lead to hold what is the difference between me and one of those three taking the hill?

Offensively the Marlins do not have much. Hanley Ramirez will not see a strike, even on a 3-0 count, Dan Uggla isn’t that good to begin with and Jeremy Hermida prefers the disabled list over stardom. Beyond that, the Marlins have a core of role players whom are receiving full time jobs. I like Jorge Cantu, but he hasn’t been good since launching a rocket in the World Baseball Classic.

Major Addition: Jorge Cantu – He is no Miguel Cabrera, but for a team that had no intentions of spending money or prospects to acquire a replacement, Cantu will provide close wins per dollars spent that Cabrera would have.

Major Subtraction: Miguel Cabrera – One of the top 4 or 5 players in the majors, any time you lose a player of this talent you are going to feel it. Despite the fact that the Marlins were not drawing any fans and had not much of a chance at competing in 2008, they will still miss Cabrera.

Breakout Candidate: Jeremy Hermida – The youngster was touted as a ‘can’t miss’ prospect coming through the ranks. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy for an entire season, but despite that, Hermida put up outstanding numbers in the second half of 2007. With relatively sustainable batted ball data, look for Hermida to surprise the league if healthy!

Fantasy Baseball Generals Speculator Part Three - Preseason Picks

"I started a joke, That started the whole world laughing. If I'd only seen, That the joke was on me."
- James William Hindle, 2001

In this week's Speculator I go out on a limb with far too many of my pre-season predictions. I will not try to defend my ration for doing so, rather I will let the season play out. Well, here they are:

I am traditionally terrible at doing long term picks for things like this, but here goes...

Awards:
American League
Rookie of the Year - Philip Humber - I see this years crew of Rookie eligible players to be quite weak in the American League.

Most Valuable Player - Grady Sizemore - I think this is the year he goes for 40 home runs and the Indians give him a long look at the cleanup slot.

Cy Young - Felix Hernandez - I think this is the year the kid breaks outs and finally learns how to pitch. The Mariners should win a lot of games.

National League
Rookie of the Year - Jay Bruce - It’s only a matter of time before he is given the full time job in Cincinnati.

Most Valuable Player - Albert Pujols - The elbow issue is more media then reality. Having Glaus behind him will be incredible.

Cy Young - Johan Santana - Sometimes things are just obvious.

Division Winners:
American League
East - Tampa Bay Rays - They have a team of breakout candidates, a deep rotation and a deep bullpen. Not to mention loads of trade options.

Central - Cleveland Indians - Division got tougher, but the Indians had a lot of poor luck.

West - Seattle Mariners - The Angels are beat up and the rest of the division stinks.

Wild Card - Toronto Blue Jays - This is dependent on an unhealthy team getting healthy.

National League
East - Philadelphia Phillies - Offensively, it’s tough to match what they've got.

Central - St. Louis Cardinals - I like their pitching depth and feel as though they will be greatly underrated offensively. Watch for the breakout candidates.

West - Arizona Diamondbacks - I think Haren and a healthy RJ has them coasting. If the kids improve they will be unstoppable.

Wild Card - Los Angeles Dodgers - A solid rotation with a deep lineup featuring a good amount of youth. I really just want to see Kershaw pitch.

Head to The Fantasy Baseball Generals to see the entire staff's picks for the 2008 season.


I was supposed to make my World Series prediction but forgot and kind of didn't have time to take care of sending it to Patrick. My WS prediction will have the Los Angeles Dodgers facing off against the Cleveland Indians. In one of the best World Series' in recent memory, the Dodgers take care of the Indians in 6 games.

Opening Day! Part 3 of 5 - It Doesn't Get Any Better

This is officially the best day in all of professional sports. Major League Baseball's Opening Day represents the beginning of professional sports in North America. The only sport to truly exist during a single calendar year. And despite MLB's best marketing attempts, the Monday that the season begins, is and will always be the real Opening Day.

Consider a day in the baseball season where every teams top pitcher is on the bump. Where one can flip between Sabathia and Buehrle to Webb and Harang or Halladay and Wang to Sheets and Zambrano. Even the minor bumps and bruises are not felt on Opening Day as the players themselves are as excited as the fans are.

I do, have one issue with Opening Day. Why is it that teams such as the Tigers and Indians are hosting games on March 31st? While weather is not likely to drastically turn around by the end of the week, is the probability not greater that Mother Nature will be nicer a week further into spring?

Sit back and enjoy the day. With 183 days remaining in the season you do have plenty of time to take it all in. But there is no other day in sports, let alone baseball, that is like Opening Day.

The Return of...Chatter from the Bleachers

There's a new trilogy, a new best trilogy.

Over at Baseball Digest Daily, "Team 1" was asked the following questions:

Question 1: BP's PECOTA system has projected the Yankees to win 97 games without any moves. And it's projected Boston to win 90. Yet, most people believe the Red Sox are the clear favorite, to the point that one ESPN.com writer this winter suggested that the 2008 Boston Red Sox may go down as the best team in history. What's really going to happen in the AL East in 2008, and why?
AND
Question 2: What is your opinion on costly closers and relievers? Is it worth it? How would you, as a GM, handle your pitching staff when it comes to signing them? Would you invest elsewhere and rely on your farm system? Explain.

For further details on Question 1, take a look at my Division by Division Preview of the AL East. I make some bold predictions with each of my predictions, but I truly will be surprised if Tampa Bay doesn't really challenge for first in the division. A lot of people are saying it won't happen until Davis and Price are full timers with the club, but I see a team that is currently good enough, combined with enough top notch prospects to make a lot of noise.

Swing over to BDD to check out my responses.

Opening Night! Part 2 of 5 - Go Davidson

We're under six hours from Baseball officially returning for the 2008 season. All the cliche's from baseball beat writers will be in full force.

I'm confused about one thing though. Why is it that the Nationals are playing a one game series against the Braves for Opening Night? Did the schedule makers look at the numbers and realize that they had only scheduled both teams for 161 games?

Division by Division Preview - AL East

Onto the final third of the league, the most potent division and the one in which I will probably receive the greatest amount of disdain for my predictions. In fact, I may lose my badge as baseball writer/blogger altogether. This is a division that in my opinion is in a state of drastic change. With the Orioles all but written off for the year, this is still a deep and strong division that has, in my opinion, four teams that could win any of baseballs other five divisions.

AL East

1. Tampa Bay Rays

I hope I haven’t already lost my readers, but hear me out. There is not another team in the division, let alone the league that has as much potential as the Rays have. Top to bottom, the team has breakout candidates and can match up player for player with any team in the league. With a little bit of luck, this team should be the best team in baseball. Furthermore, consider that the Rays used BJ Upton at second base for 48 games in 2007 which essentially single handedly led to the Devil Rays having the worst defensive efficiency in the Majors.

Also, consider the depth of the Rays farm system. With youngsters at essentially every spot in the lineup, the club can afford to make a major trade this season to fill a team need. In fact, if a CC Sabathia becomes available on the open market, is there another team with more trading chips then the Rays?

The pitching rotation is young but extraordinarily talented. Kazmir, Shields and Garza make up as good of a trio as anyone in the majors owns. If a club has to run into these three for a series, watch out! The bottom of the rotation is more uncertain due to their rawness. As is, I am uncertain how things will shake out, but either way, the pitchers taking up the last two spots in the rotation should be at least league average-when compared to other pitchers at their places in the rotation. Sonnanstine and Howell would be my picks, although both would be on a short leash.

The bullpen should be much stronger in 2007 with the addition of Percival. I also feel that given Edwin Jackson an extended look in the 7^th inning and have Percival be his mentor. The kid has the stuff; he is just erratic and could probably use a positive role model. This is not the Rays strongest area, but as I mentioned, they have the depth in the minor league system to make moves, I wonder how long the Rocks hang on to Fuentes?

Offensively the Rays have enormous potential. Navarro is on the cusp of great things in my opinion and should really help the team develop. It is only a matter of time before Evan Longoria is the everyday guy at the hot corner and while he may be a year or two from being David Wright, he’s infinitely better then what the Rays had at the position in 2007. In fact, Longoria’s presence and the addition of Bartlett will make the Rays infield solid both defensively and offensively. Also look for Crawford and Upton to be among the best outfielders (again both defensively and offensively) in the American League.

Breakout Candidate: Dioner Navarro – I wrote about him at length at Baseball Digest Daily, and my opinion still stands. Navarro is having an excellent Spring and looks to be ready to build off of a solid 2007 second half.

Major Addition: Matt Garza – The Rays haven’t had the best luck developing starting pitchers and Garza has the ability to be an ace. He will be the number three guy in Tampa and won’t be relied on heavily to contribute what he is capable of doing.

Major Subtraction: Rocco Baldelli/Elijah Dukes – It sounds as if Rocco’s career is over, and he wasn’t that much assistance in 2007, but the team was counting on him to help in the outfield in 2008. In fact, I ascertain that much of the reason the Rays were willing to let Dukes go (personality issues aside) was the thinking that the outfield would be too crowded in 2008.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

Hopefully my analysis of the Rays saved me to this point, but hears me out. The Jays suffered a lot of major injuries and underperformance in 2007 yet only finished 13 games out of first in the league. Comparatively, the Red Sox had an essentially perfect season and only tied the Indians. Furthermore, the Jays were 9 and 9 against the Sox, and 6 and 10 against the Yankees. Give them a winning record against either team and they are a 90 win team. Take away a few victories from the Yanks and Sox and the Jays are in the playoffs. I am predicting that the Jays will be the 2008 AL Wild Card team.

The rotation is in tact and should provide the same, if not better numbers as 2007 (when they finished tied for 7^th in starter ERA). Consider now that McGowan and Marcum have room to improve. Additionally Halladay and Burnett have better seasons in them then they displayed last year. Could this be the American Leagues best division? Maybe with a trade for an expiring starter the Jays could stabilize the final spot in the rotation. Let us also remember the awful Ohka, Zambrano and Kennedy trials from 2007, at worst, the number 5 spot this year will equal last years.

The bullpen finished 3^rd in the Majors in ERA. BJ Ryan is returning and looks strong in Spring. His injury in 2007 ended up being a blessing in disguise as it allowed young pitchers such as Downs and Accardo to show their dependability. While the loss of Jansen will definitely be felt, it is softened by the fact that Ryan has returned.

Look for the Jays to be a vastly superior team in 2008 then they were in 2007. Vernon Wells should be more determined then ever to prove that the big contract he received last winter was not a waste. Frank Thomas and Lyle Overbay both vastly underperformed last year, so one can look forward to bounce back seasons from that duo. Rios is a player who is still coming into his own and the left field platoon, while terrible in the field, should provide the same if not superior offensive punch as 2007. I also anticipate that Adam Lind will be moved at some point this season to help fill whatever void the Jays may have.

Breakout Candidate: Dustin McGowan – The hard throwing righty really turned things on in the second half of last season. He helped himself out by shaving off some walks in the second half as well as adding a substantial amount to his strikeouts. If he can maintain the batted ball data from a year ago, he will be a real surprise in 2008.

Major Addition: Scott Rolen – Despite fracturing a finger that will keep him out of the Jays lineup for the first month and a bit of the season, Rolen’s presence will greatly improve the infield defense. Although…

Major Subtraction: Troy Glaus – The Jays are going to take a big hit offensively here as Rolen is not the powerful hitter that Glaus is. Taking that kind of power out of the lineup may hurt the Jays as they will have to rely on a lot of singles and doubles to score runs.

3. New York Yankees

I am ranking the Yanks as my third best team in the American League East with not much of a chance at making the playoffs. Their rotation is in shambles as it is yet another year older at the top. Their hitting is as good as the Tigers, but substantially older and thus likely to collapse. Unfortunately, I am expecting a major regression for the Yankees.

As I mentioned, the rotation is in shambles. While I am a huge fan of Phil Hughes, I honestly don’t see him as being much more then a third starter this year. With that in mind, I also see him as far and away the best starter the Yankees have this year and for Yankee fans who thought last year was tough going to their 12^th, 13^th and 14^th starters, 2008 will prove to be as painful. Neither Mussina nor Pettitte have what it takes to be a top of the rotation starter for 30+ starts and if the Yankees expect to compete, they are going to have to tap back into their farm system. I’m also not a fan of Wang, unless his new pitches are all that.

The bullpen will be strong with Chamberlain and Rivera, and Edwar Ramirez is a guy I really like-despite the fact that he is surprisingly old! But how much more can the Yankees expect LaTroy Hawkins or Kyle Farnsworth to have left? That said, the Yankees are going to have a lot of ‘white knuckle’ games as the rotation is not capable of going deep into games and the bullpen is not stocked with players to get the game into the 8^th for Chamberlain. Look out for Yankees fans to scream for bullpen help.

Offensively this team is stacked. One can make an argument that they still have a Hall of Famer at every position. The bench is relatively deep with extraordinarily flexible hitters. However, how much more does Giambi, Abreu, Matsui, Posada, Jeter and Damon have left? My assumption is that 2 or 3 of these players either suffers a major injury, or regresses beyond recognition. In fact, I also question what kind of attitude Alex Rodriguez will bring to the table now that he is no longer playing for an extension. The team will be alright, but don’t expect any one of the aforementioned seven to accomplish what they did in 2007.

Breakout Candidate: Edwar Ramirez – Despite the fact that he doesn’t really bring it, Edwar has an outstanding strikeout rate of 13.29 per 9 innings (good for the best strikeout rate among pitchers with at least 20 innings). If Edwar could find a way to more consistently be in the strike zone, there is no way he wouldn’t solidify the Yankees bullpen and make a Joba to starter move much easier to swallow.

Major Addition: NONE! They brought aboard ex-Astros Ensberg and Lane, but I would be shocked to see either one have more then 300 at bats this season.

Major Subtraction: Roger Clemens – While his stint with the Yanks was not as successful as he would have liked (or as the Yankees were paying him), he still pushes pitchers up the pecking order and takes away some of the team depth.

4. Boston Red Sox

While this may come as a huge slap in the face, the Red Sox scream ‘injury trouble’ to me from top to bottom. Even the areas where they appear safe the club has player’s who so overachieved that regression is actually too obvious of a conclusion. I feel as though too many things fell in place for the Red Sox that this season, everything is simply going to collapse. However, I am still expecting 80+ wins out of the club this season.

The rotation owns the #1 and #22 most abused pitchers from 2007 in Matsuzaka and Beckett respectively. Beckett already had a tendency of being brittle and is struggling to be healthy to this point in Spring Training and Matsuzaka is in an entirely new world in North American baseball. Whether or not Dice-Ks second half was a sign of things to come, or simply a small sample size and an aberration to the bigger picture is yet to be determined. But his walk rate and drop in strikeouts over the second half has got to be alarming for any fan of the Sox. The rotation will also count on a pair of youngsters in the place of Curt Schilling. While Schilling did not have the greatest season in 2007, it is tough to imagine a rookie performing better then he did at Fenway.

Hideki Okajima is not a quality relief pitcher. While many may argue with this assertion due to how Hideki performed in 2007, I am willing to go out and state that his numbers were directly related to a unique delivery which confused American League hitters for the first half of the season. David Aardsma is a guy that I anticipate will take over a meaningful role within the bullpen and be a name Red Sox Nation remembers.

The Red Sox hitters are efficient and play their required roles to perfection. The club though, is extremely thin and cannot afford an injury to anyone of its key players. I don’t imagine the Red Sox can go another season without suffering a major injury to either of their aging sluggers, Ortiz or Ramirez. As is, both Lugo and Drew are hurt and their backups are less than stellar. Outside of that, the youth and potential is far and few between.

Breakout Candidate: Manny Delcarmen – Everyone expects that it is only a matter of time before Jonathan Papelbon’s arm falls off. Delcarmen is the best choice and will be a major factor in the Sox bullpen longterm.

Major Addition: NONE! This roster is essentially the same one as 2007’s.

Major Subtraction: NONE! See above.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Just because I have the Orioles ranked as the fifth best team in the division, does not mean I do not like this team. The club finally has a direction and it is a fairly strong one. The minor league system is developing and the core of young players is impressive. The Tejada and Bedard trades have supplied the team with a surplus of arms and a future superstar. Moving Brian Roberts is next on the agenda and presumably is only a matter of time away.

The rotation is youthful and has a nice amount of potential. Watching the kids warm up and one would want this starting five over any one else’s. Jeremy Guthrie throws hard and he keeps it in the strike zone. I do not believe last year scratched the surface on the once top prospects potential. Additionally, how long is it before Daniel Cabrera figures things out? When he is on, good contact is nearly impossible to make. The problem is, he is rarely on and his time with the Orioles has to be running out. Cross your fingers Orioles fans. Watch out for Adam Loewen!

My boy Fernando Cabrera seems to have the Cabrera bug; outstanding stuff, terrible pitcher. Once upon a time, he had the biggest swing and miss ratio in the league. The rest of the bullpen is pieced together, some expensive parts, other youngsters with that p word. James Hoey is one of those guys with potential. After a spectacular minor league career, he has become extremely hittable and less capable of striking hitters out. In other words, this isn’t a terrible bullpen; rather, it’s one that is perfectly suited for a club like this.

Offensively the Orioles have all but given up for 2008. If and when Brian Roberts gets traded, this will be an outstanding team to match up with in fantasy leagues. There is hope for the future though. Between Nick Markakis and Adam Jones the Orioles have the highest potential outfield in the majors. Luke Scott should also turn some heads and allow people to realize that the Tejada trade was more then just a salary dump.

Breakout Candidate: Adam Loewen – I am confident the Orioles teach their minor leaguers to MISS the broadside of the barn. In fact, I would love to see some Pitch FX data to see exactly how far out of the zone Loewen works. That said, I expect the 24 year old to begin making strides towards stardom in 2008.

Major Addition: Adam Jones – PECOTA projects Jones to be nearly as good in 2008 as in 2014. He has all the tools in the world and the Mariners will regret trading him away as soon as the 2009 season. All that being said, Jones is already better then what the Orioles had in 2007, so that is a step in the right direction.

Major Subtraction: Not getting rid of Kevin Millar – There is no reason Millar is still with the club. There were ample options available in the free agent market, young hitters with decent potential.

Division by Division Preview - AL West

“What does the future of sports look like? This magazine has spent its whole short life trying to figure that out. But as we learned long ago, forecasting the future is futile. Predictions are a reflection of a single perspective: the present’s.”

-Luke Cyphers in ESPN The Mag, March 24, 2008, Page 48.

I couldn’t have said it better. Forecasting what humans will do in the future is impossible. In Fantasy Land, by Sam Walker he decided that his fantasy draft would take into account each and every variable when ‘scouting’ players. From what that players diet includes to spousal relations or as Sam and Nando referred to throughout the book as “The Hunchmaster”. Attempting to quantify what an uncontrollable object will accomplish is nearly impossible and is the reason why Tom Tango created the MARCELs projection system-as in Marcel the Monkey from Friends. In short, the projection system is the most simplistic of all player forecasters out there yet has a comically close reliability.

AL West

Consider the AL West, a top heavy division where last year’s bride’s maid sold its future in an attempt to take control of the division for the upcoming season. The class of the division is being butchered by injuries to their pitching staff. While the two basement dwellers of the division are working out their individual rebuilding plans. And I have always wondered why there are only four teams in this division while there are six in the NL Central which could easily loan the Houston Astros.

1. Seattle Mariners

This was actually my pick for the division in 2007 and even if they hadn’t gone out and spent a fortune acquiring Erik Bedard I still would have picked the forgotten coastal team. I like a lot of the players they have to improve on their 2007 seasons and I think Bedard-Felix will prove to be the best 1-2 combination in the majors.

With Bedard I like this rotation as every player now appropriately can slide into their specific slots. Even though Felix has had an outstanding xFIP the last two seasons he is not yet a number one so the number two spot is perfect for him. Then not one of Washburn, Silva or Batista is any better then the third spot they will occupy and thus are better suited to match up with their competition. The issue with the rotation then, lies in the fact that outside of the Opening Day five, the club is not well suited to handle injuries. While there are arms that are capable of handling some spot starts, this clubs is going to have to hope the injury bug does not bite them.

The Mariners bullpen is an interesting collection of talent and quite different from the rotation, can afford an injury or two. However, with the value of JJ Putz (he was the #1 win share creating reliever in the majors) the Mariners bullpen is appropriately top heavy. For a team looking to win the division, I wonder what it would have taken to keep Sherrill around and thus cushioning the blow of any of their top relievers. This bullpen is not outstanding, but it is solid nonetheless.

Offensively one has to worry if the Mariners can be good enough to make the playoffs. The team replaced Guillen and his steroid allegations with Brad Wilkerson and his hospital bill. However, keep in mind that Wilkerson was the centerpiece of the Rangers trading away of Alfonso Soriano, so much so, that many considered the Rangers the winner of that trade. Richie Sexson is the key to the Mariners offense as no one is quite sure what to expect from the once feared slugger. Two youngsters to watch out for are Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement. Both have gross amounts of potential, but are blocked by veterans. More often then not I am against blocking young players with potential, but in this case, it does not appear as if Balentien or Clement could out produce those ahead of them.

Breakout Candidate: Brandon Morrow – The wild 23 year old is more about stuff then location. If he is able to develop some control, he and Putz could make for one of the most dominant 8^th/9^th inning combinations in the league. If he is more second half then first, Morrow may be on track to turning things around. Given the sample size it is difficult to trust.

Major Addition: Erik Bedard – The trickle down effect in the rotation alone will make this one of the biggest acquisitions of the year. This also provides the Mariners with superior pitching depth. The cost, however, no matter how long Bedard signs for, will probably be a negative affect long term, but the Mariners have a legitimate shot this season, so why not?

Major Subtraction: George Sherrill – While the Bedard trade deepens the rotation, it provided a thinning effect for the bullpen. The Mariners will definitely miss Sherrill’s reliable innings, but the team is better in 2008 despite this loss.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This club is the reason why I waited until the week before (/of) the season to begin writing the division by division previews. A lot can happen and it is too difficult to project things in the beginning of March. Consider that as recently as March 7^th the Angels were still considering John Lackey as their Opening Day starter. Ten days later, Lackey is now being considered as out until at least mid-May.

With Kelvim Escobar already ruled out for an undetermined amount of time, the Lackey injury is that much more devastating. Fortunately, the Angels created a back up plan when they traded for Jon Garland, whom is leaving hitter friendly US Cellular for pitcher friendly Angel Stadium. Young ‘veterans’ Weaver, Santana and Saunders will be relied on to come up with big innings while Escobar and Lackey attempt to get healthy. Each has the potential to be a valuable starter, but need to prove themselves before anyone can write them down as legitimate. It will be interesting to see how Adenhart performs in triple A and whether or not the Angels need him in the case of an emergency.

The bullpen is finally beginning to show its age, however one can never rule out this group. Like the Twins, the Angels defy logic by continually pumping out stellar bullpens. Scot Shields, an annual anchor of the pen is hurt and it is questionable whether or not he will start the season on the disabled list. While the club has a ready (and possibly even superior) substitute in Justin Speier, two quality arms is always better than one. The rest of last years bullpen remains in tact, although this is not entirely good news as that were the worst group the Angels had put together since at least 2001.

The hitting is not going to be a problem unless the clubs age begins to catch up to them. Vlad, Torii and Matthews may make for the best fielding outfield in recent memory, but with each one getting up there in age, a drop off offensively can begin to be assumed. Fortunate for the Angels, however, is the fact that they have offensively ready hitters in Willits and Rivera that could step in and perform at a high level at any moment. Additionally, the club is young enough at enough positions where development is very likely.

Breakout Candidate: Mike Napoli – One of the many young hitters that I mentioned that can be relied on for improvement. Napoli is a catcher who in the low minors clubbed 60 home runs in 2004 and 2005 combined, so the power is there. What is missing for the 26 year old is the ability to remain healthy. If he does so one can expect 25+ home runs from the backstop.

Major Addition: Torii Hunter – Signing Matthews Jr. for the 2007 season was obviously a mistake. Hunter will come in and immediately provide quality protection for Vlad. Although the future does not look bright for the Angels outfield, for 2008, Hunter will provide a needed boost for the club. A close second, due to the injuries of Lackey and Escobar would be the addition of Garland, however the cost…

Major Subtraction: Orlando Cabrera – Despite being on his last legs offensively, Cabrera is still a reliable top of the order bat. The swap worked out for the Angels, but they will nevertheless miss Cabrera.

3. Oakland Athletics

Most are chalking the Athletics up for a disastrous season but I am actually thinking the 2008 club will not be much worse then the 2007 club if they can happen upon some luck. Consider the club was essentially without Harden last season; if he can remain healthy, his performance should actually be superior to the pitcher they lost (Haren). This exercise could essentially be done top to bottom with the 25 man roster, and although the club will need to be lucky, they could easily exceed their win total from 2007.

The rotation will be fine in 2008 as long as Harden can stay healthy (as I type this, he is absolutely dominating the Red Sox while using only his fastball, change up and sparingly the split finger dropping the slider altogether) and Blanton remains with the club. The injury to Gaudin may have a negative effect, but watch out for Dana Eveland to be a major contributor to the rotation.

I love this bullpen. It is deep, youthful and talented with one of my favorite all time relievers, Andrew Brown. I see Brown as a future closer, if, like Morrow, he can harness his control. Aside from Brown, everyone knows the current closer Houston Street, who missed about half the 2007 season due to injury. All signs are pointing to him being healthy, despite getting lit up by the Sox in his first outing of the year. Essentially, full seasons from Street and Brown will be like adding an entire reliever (both pitched half a season in 2007). The addition of Keith Foulke gives a veteran presence to the bullpen and the rest of the arms are talented enough to simply fit into the required spots.

The A’s hitting is not going to be that bad either. The team is young enough where improvements can be expected and Billy Beane did an excellent job acquiring cheap, talented veterans such as Mike Sweeny and Emil Brown. If both can come close to their career averages, they will come as two of the most efficient signings of last off season. In addition to the added veterans, youngsters such as Daric Barton and Kurt Suzuki will provide offensive improvements over what the club had for the majority of 2007. Thus, the loss of Nick Swisher will not be felt as much as one would expect.

Breakout Candidate: Kurt Suzuki – While I am enamored with Andrew Brown, I recognize he has a bunch of pitchers to hurdle in order to get there. I also expect Barton to be the superior long term player; however, Suzuki will have an incredible impact on the A’s in 2008 as he will handle the pitching staff far better then last year’s majority catcher, as well as improving the overall team defense. Suzuki was also terribly unlucky in 2007 and will definitely improve upon his numbers against left handed pitchers.

Major Addition: Ryan Sweeney – While Sweeney may have lost much of his prospect luster, keep in mind the outfielder is still only 23 years old. He won’t be pushed into fulltime action until he is entirely ready, watch out for this kid.

Major Subtraction: Dan Haren – I suppose with Haren the A’s have a shot at being a 90 win team. That still would not put them in the playoffs, so really, its tough to consider anything they could have lost as major.

4. Texas Rangers

Despite possibly having the best team top to bottom, the Rangers are the worst team in this division. The club still has no real starting pitching and adding more fire power wasn’t really the most pressing need. However, the future does look bright for the club as they are incredibly strong up the middle.

The rotation is terrible, but the additions of John Patterson (again, why I don’t do these things too early) and Jason Jennings will help the mess of a rotation the Rangers put together in 2007, but this is still far from an elite group. There is, however, hope for the future…An ongoing theme with this club.

The Rangers bullpen is another one that I like, young, talented and deep with Francisco and Benoit as two of my favorite relievers. The bullpen could be of a major assistance to a winning club, but will simply be used to prevent the Rangers from being blown out of the water with regularity.

Offensively the Rangers are assisted by a hitter friendly ballpark. But with some quality youngsters in Hamilton and Saltamacchia there is, like the rotation, hope for the future. Milton Bradley was brought in this off season and looks to be one of the best signings. Jason Botts is a player whom I think with enough at bats, could be a quality everyday designated hitter. And everyone, but me, has high hopes for Ian Kinsler, it must be because of how close his name is to Ray Kinsella.

Breakout Candidate: Jason Botts – I found it difficult to find a player whom truly fits the mold. Botts has some great power potential but it is questionable as to whether or not he gets the appropriate at bats. Keep an eye on him in the opening weeks of the season to see if the Rangers go with performance or pay.

Key Addition: John Patterson – For a team without any pitching, Patterson could be a legitimate ace. He may start the year in Oklahoma City, but once he is up with the club, there is little reason to believe he won’t be the team’s number 1 starter. Milton Bradley is a close second, but for a team not desperate for offensive help, he is on the outside looking in.

Key Subtraction: Edinson Volquez – This guy is going to be a future ace and shouldn’t have been dealt for anything outside of a sure thing 22 year old. Hart may have been thinking that his fly ball tendencies would not fit with ‘The Ballpark at Arlington’ while Hamilton’s would fit perfectly. Either way, the team would be better served with Volquez in the coming years then Hamilton (how long before Hamilton’s nick name is ‘Hammer’?).

Fantasy Baseball Generals Speculator Part Two - Rollins v. Utley

Another week another round table discussion at The Fantasy Baseball Generals. This week, a toss up between Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. While the two are of different positions, at this point in the draft you should simply be taking the best available player.

Here is what I wrote:
"I am, like everyone else, going to have to go with Rollins. For me, it has less to do with the statistics then the position scarcity. That is, I actually anticipate Rollins to regress more so then Utley. While Rollins has a substantially lower BABIP, it is in line with his career mark despite the drastic increase in fly balls.

That said, once Reyes, Rollins and Ramirez are drafted the pool of short stops becomes so incredibly shallow, that it is tough to get value by drafting anyone at the point required to get them. That is, in a recent draft (no MI position), instead of taking Bartlett, Lugo, Greene, etc in one of the final rounds, I decided to take Schilling whom I can slot in at the DL and pick up whoever is on the waiver wire.

Conversely, with Utley, one can make the argument that a Wigginton holds similar value despite being available some 200 picks later.

And that is why my money is on Rollins."

This is with the expectation that you are in a traditional 5x5 league. Obviously if you are in a league with on base percentage the debate may be slightly different, but for arguments sake, 5x5 it is. Then I considered position scarcity.

At short stop, once the top 3 are gone, Furcal and Bartlett are the only two where one is not forced to overpay for their services and thus will provide a quality return. However the different between Furcal/Bartlett and Reyes/Rollins/Ramirez is quite substantial. Also, one must keep in mind my draft strategy which involves focusing on speed at short stop.

For second base the pool appears quite similar. While Utley is the uncontested #1 second basemen, I do not consider his 5x5 skill set as that much more superior to that of the aforementioned Wigginton and Tim Dierkes old favorite, Mark Ellis (whom I will write about in this weeks TACOM).

Opening Day! Part 1 of 5 - Japan Issue

It's a brand new season and despite the games starting time being 6 AM EST my need for baseball outweighs what this is going to do to the rest of my day. In fact, at this point I don't even mind that there are going to be so many Opening Days.

So let's lose ourselves "in the comforting intricacies of baseball" (Gray, 2006, 5) and watch Baseball for Breakfast.

Update - 3/25/2008 - 10:07 AM
A couple notes of interest:

1. Did anyone notice the advertisements on the right sleeve and helmet of the players today? I'm not sure if thisis going to be something that sticks for 2008 nor do I remember hearing anything about it. I wonder why playing games in Japan makes this acceptable?
2. The Athletics may surprise some people in 2008. I am in the midst of my AL West Preview and despite having the A's ranking last I am wondering if this is simply too obvious of a pick. If Blanton, Ellis and the rest of the veterans are moved, then certainly, but this is a nice core.
3. 95 pitches out of Matsuzaka a week before where he should have actually started. I think the Sox are going to pay for this down the line.

It was great to have baseball back on television. My dish is down so I was fortunate that the West Coast Roger's Sportsnet was carrying the game as for some reason, RSN East and Ontario felt as if people would rather see hockey high lights.

Division by Division Preview - NL West

Division by Division Preview

The real Opening Day is but a week away and I must admit I could not be more excited. Like most of my articles, I have been posting my Division Previews on The Bleacher Report. While I will continue to do so because the website provides an excellent outlet and resource to promote my writing, I have begun to grow tired explaining why I do not like player XYZ due to his terrible sabermetric measures. It also is tiring explaining to a fan my rationale for why I make the statements I do. That is, a fan of the Detroit Tigers does not want to hear that their team is not my favorite to win the World Series and consequently will disagree without any true logic or reason. Sadly, The Bleacher Report has turned into a website where fans can blog and complain about their teams without having an open mind.

But I digress; the National League West is the most wide open division in baseball. Aside from the San Francisco Giants, there is no clear cut winner in the division, nor does there appear to be one for the foreseeable future as each of the clubs own spectacular minor league systems-with the exception of the Giants of course.

National League West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

Despite deserving to be the worst or second worst team in the division in 2007 the Diamondbacks, as you know, made it to the National League Championship Series. Although the measures are not entirely without flaws as they simply count total runs allowed and scored. Thus, a team loses 10-0 that is worse off then a team that loses 2-1. The thinking is that at the end of a 162 game season, the blowout loses and tight victories will even one another out. Hence, Pythagoras.

While not extraordinarily deep, the Diamondbacks have arguably the best rotation in the majors. With two legitimates National League aces whom are both young and durable, the Diamondbacks can match up with any team. Randy Johnson and Doug Davis are arguably the best 3^rd and 4^th starters in the National League although one has to wonder how many innings they can be depended on. Outside of that, I prefer Yusmeiro Petit, but feel as though Owings will be the one getting the ball every 5^th day as the final arm in the rotation. The wild card is Max Scherzer whom should be called up at some point this season as either a dominant reliever or as a quality starter.

Josh Byrnes has got to be one of the most intelligent GMs in the Majors. He made an unpredictable and HUGE shakeup to his bullpen and came out no worse for the wear. Utilizing Valverde’s high save figures as trade bait was a stroke of pure genius and is one of many reasons why Byrnes is the best GM in baseball. The Diamondbacks have a nice bullpen that is strong at the top. Much of their Pythagorean problems of 2007 were related to having a weak set of mop up men, which is the same case today but who cares!

Offensively, the clubs in the National League West can only hope that the Diamondbacks suffer a plague of horrific injuries, otherwise, this team is going to be a powerhouse for years to come. That is because of youngsters such as Conor Jackson, Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton whom should all begin to come into their own. Watch out, as this team is going to be something special.

Breakout Candidate: Stephen Drew – Drew was the darling of many fantasy owners entering the 2007 season as he was spectacular in his call up the previous season. I expect Drew to bounce back and build off of last year if he can avoid the bumps and bruises that slowed him at times last year.

Major Addition: Dan Haren – A high school writing teacher once told me to assume the reader knows nothing. I think I accomplished that here.

Major Subtraction: Tony Clark – Yes, I am going there. And no, I know what I am talking about here. Hear me out; in 2007 the Diamondbacks received around 30hr from their 1B “platoon”, if Conor Jackson reaches 25 this season that will be an impressive feat.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

A reader may have a difficult time swallowing this prediction based on what I said about the Cubs and Astros. However, the Dodgers have a stable enough core of youngsters that even though they will rely on the veterans to contribute a great deal in order for them to succeed (and consequently win the National League Wild Card). This though, is not being entirely fair to the Dodgers as top to bottom they have a better roster then both the Cubs and the Astros.

The rotation is filled nicely with veterans and youth but does lack the ever important depth quality. With the injured Jason Schmidt and the overly talented yet highly untested Clayton Kershaw trying to prove that he is ready, the Dodgers are crossing their fingers nothing goes wrong in the first month or two of the season. Nevertheless, the Dodgers have an interesting story to follow within their rotation as I am certain Kershaw will be pushing the envelope.

As far as bullpens are concerned, the Dodgers have as good of a pen as it gets. With outstanding pitchers in every slot, the Dodgers have a surplus of strong, talented and young arms that they could potentially use for trade bait if need be. Jonathan Broxton is an exciting arm that more and more people are beginning to discover, but my personal favorite Yhency Brazoban-whom I once tabbed “Better than Gagne”-will be back at full strength this season and should make an impact for the Dodgers.

Offensively, the club is deep without one true star; yet! While most are tabbing Matt Kemp as the future of the organization, I have a feeling Andre Ethier will be the bigger star in 2008. That is not to knock Kemp, I think he will turn heads this season, but I am of the belief that this will be Ethier’s year. Another player to watch out for is James Loney, whom experts and scouts were concerned may not develop the needed power to be an everyday first basemen. If 2007 was a display of what Loney is capable of doing, watch out in 2008 as he is given a full workload.

Breakout Candidate: There are truly so many but I am going to take a shot at Andre Ethier – As a 25 year old Ethier began to breakout in 2007 however was limited in his at bats. He is currently having an outstanding Spring and will hopefully beat out Juan Pierre for the final starting outfielders spot.

Major Addition: Hiroki Kuroda – With a nice, not spectacular Japanese League career under his belt, Kuroda comes to North America with moderate expectations. He was one of the most sought after free agents this winter and is struggling to adjust to North American baseball in the Spring. I’m willing to give him a bit more time before declaring this a done deal and would like to think the Dodgers weren’t just throwing money around.

Major Subtraction: None that I can see. In fact, it appears as if the Dodgers added more thru what they lost.

3. San Diego Padres

One of the best run organizations in baseball, the Padres need to start making decisions with the future of the ball club in mind. Chase Headley should be starting the year in the outfield, Scott Hairston should be given ample at bats at some position on the field and Heath Bell needs to be given at least a handful of saves to see if he can be the closer of the future. All in all, the club needs to forget about the minor gains they will receive by throwing Giles and Edmonds out there and start to look to the future, the window in San Diego has, in my opinion, shut.

The rotation is as good as it gets featuring two legitimate aces in Peavy and Young. In addition to these two frontline starters are returnee Greg Maddux and my annual ‘tease of the year’ Randy Wolf. In addition to these four quality starters is the hope that this year will be the year that Mark Prior is able to come back healthy and be the pitcher everyone thought he was going to be. Worst case scenario is that the Padres are again boosted by playing at PETCO and boast one of the leagues top rotations.

Despite not having a terribly deep nor overpowering bullpen, the Padres seem to get by just fine. Bell and Hoffman are as good as it gets in the 8^th/9^th innings, and the rest of the bullpen is filled with quality complimentary arms. Like the rotation, the bullpen is aided by PETCO Park only needing to be great for 40 games or so when they are winning on the road.

Offensively this can be a nice youthful core. Between Bard, Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, Greene and potentially Headley, they have a young core that in any other ball park would be feared while playing at home. Consider that this team slugged a fearsome .378 at PETCO in 2007 (good for second last in all of baseball) and .440 on the road (6^th in the majors). Traditionally teams are supposed to hit worse on the road then at home, but when you are playing 81 games at PETCO, one can be excused for the giant discrepancy (without doing the calculations, it’s the largest in baseball!).

Breakout Candidate: Kevin Kouzmanoff – Simply put, what Kouz did in the second half of 2007 he is capable of doing for the entire season. He is a guy whom I would argue as one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball. I think his 2008 season will go a long way to backing my opinion of that.

Major Addition: Tadahito Iguchi – One of few hitters whom I think will not be incredibly hurt by hitting in PETCO given his line drive abilities. That said his biggest asset will be in the fact that he is filling one of the Padres biggest holes from a year ago.

Major Subtraction: Milton Bradley – I think Milton is one of the most underrated players in baseball. His fielding plus on base abilities are second to none in my opinion and he is a player who is essentially irreplaceable.

4. Colorado Rockies

While the Rockies hitting should remain the course from a year ago, it is doubtful they have the pitching and defensive success that allowed them to go on their late season tear. Additionally, consider what would have been had they simply lost one game down that stretch, or even a close one in April. Cutting it that close, despite their heroic march to the World Series does not sit well for me and is the reason I rank them at #4 for the division.

The rotation returns intact from what the club had down the stretch and into the playoffs. With youth on its side there is reason for optimism. However, similar to the Padres home hitting woes, the Rockies must suffer with hitting at Coors Field, which despite managements best efforts, is still a hitters park. Neither Francis nor Cook displaces fear in opponents despite each having their own special qualities (Francis’ hook and Cook’s “bowling ball fastball”). Outside of those two starters is a litany of high ceiling youngsters and never been journey men. Kip Wells is a guy to watch out for, as the once solid Pirate tries to resurrect his career in Colorado.

Interestingly the Rockies bullpen was a strong point in 2007 as they placed 12^th in all of baseball with an ERA under 4 for the first time that can be researched. The bullpen is quite deep overall, featuring two capable closers in Corpas and Fuentes. Watch out for a big trade this season involving Fuentes that should help stockpile the Rockies with major league ready starters.

Offensively this team is boosted from Coors Field. However, when one considers that this club goes from being far and away the most powerful team at home (+.073 over the next closest opponent in 2007) to a middle of the road team away (-.144 compared to home slugging) I can see why the Rockies may be hesitant to lock up Holiday long term. That said, for 81 games the Rockies are still a wrecking ball of destruction.

Breakout Candidate: Willy Taveras – 33 steals in only 97 games, the highest ISO of the hitter’s career, 26 years old. Keep these numbers in mind as they will all be factors as to why I feel Taveras will breakout in 2008. Additionally, Phil Garner called Taveras ‘the most talented hitter he has ever been around’ claiming that he expected a power outbreak from him in the near future.

Major Addition: None – This team decided not to make any major moves this off season allowing last years NL champs to take another swing at things. I’m not impressed.

Major Subtraction: Kaz Matsui – I recognize it was a bad signing for the Astros but this was a tough loss for the Rockies. There does not seem to be an obvious nor quality choice to replace Kaz and unless Marcus Giles steps up, this is going to be a long and painful season up the middle for the Rocks.

5. San Francisco Giants

This is an embarrassing assembly of talent and a terrible job at managing the organization. I understood the Zito signing at the time and at this point the club simply needs to swallow its pride and take that hit. But to have the farm system this club has combined with brining in Aaron Rowand is simply an embarrassment. This team should be booted out of the division for not representing an understanding of how to rebuild.

The rotation is solid with Cain and Lincecum. Unfortunately, by the time these two are truly in their prime, SBC Park will be a ghost town and the Giants won’t be able to afford to keep either player around for the future. The other youngster (Noah Lowry) is hurt and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was shut down for the year. That leaves the door open for Jonathan Sanchez whom had an incredible minor league career; watch out for this kid as PECOTA projects him to be close to a strikeout an inning.

For a contender this would be a bad bullpen. In fact, it would be one that probably made a contender into a pretender, like the Tigers. For the Giants, this will be exactly what it should be, a bridge to the next game. Brian Wilson has closers stuff and should succeed when called upon, but to target him as a guy with more then 25 saves would be to make a mistake.

I simply cannot believe that an organization would go into a season with Rowand and Molina as the heart of their order. From a Fantasy perspective I like Molina, but that is simply because of the opportunity he is being handed. There is no way he truly deserves that. The club is also continuing to give old as dirt veterans Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham starting jobs. I can understand Vizquel as he may be able to put some butts in the seats because of his glove, but Durham should hardly be a major leaguer at this point in his career. With Velez having a terrific Spring, what would it hurt to give him full time at bats at second base?

Breakout Candidate: Jonathan Sanchez – Honestly, I don’t think anyone is capable of breaking out this year. Considering it does not matter how well any one player plays, they will be overshadowed by the pathetic performance of their teammates. Sanchez is a player who will be given the opportunity to shine and should take the ball and run with it-hopefully out of town.

Major Addition: NONE! This team should have stood pat with what it had, cut their loses and wait for the contracts of Roberts, Winn, Vizquel and Durham to expire and completely rebuilt. Instead, the club brought Aaron Rowand aboard in hopes of who knows. The only bright spot about Rowand is that he will be a nice clubhouse presence once this team is ready to contend, an expensive one, but a nice one.

Major Subtraction: I am actually going to say NONE! There isn’t a player that could have left this team that would have hurt their chances at competing in 2008 or in the future. Letting go of Bonds and Feliz was the right thing to do, unfortunately the club didn’t realize this in June or July of last year.

Feel Good Story

No, this isn't about a player fighting an addiction on his way to becoming a minor star and technically this is more bad news then good. But every once in a while something bad happens in order for something good to occur.

At Baseball Digest Daily I reported the story about Scott Rolen fracturing a finger. I was not the first, but over at Brew Crew Ball they sourced my report.

Sometimes, it's the little things in life that make a difference.

Take a Chance on Me - Week 2 Edition

At The Fantasy Baseball Generals I take a look at two players that you should strongly consider taking towards the end of your draft. I feel as though Pedro Feliz and Elijah Dukes are going to significantly outperform those who are being taken ahead of them and shock many in the fantasy world.

Read More...

Fantasy Fridays vol. 4 - March Madness in the Outfield

I love the Sonic commercials...

In the second last edition of Fantasy Fridays draft special, I will discuss some solid bargains in the outfield. This group will come as an unglamorous bunch that hold the same value as those drafted significantly higher. There is one player in particular, that I am incredibly high on and worry about talking too much of him as I have drafts remaining. I will also refrain from talking about my bracket. Although I am sure that it would be humorous to discuss at given how embarrassingly ugly it looks already, I will save some credibility.

Jerry Owens

Remember the Scott Podsednik days in Chicago? You know, when he was a healthy full time outfielder who stole 99 bases in two seasons despite a 340ish on base percentage. I re-introduce to you the forgotten Jerry Owens.

In 2007 as a 26 year old rookie without a full time gig, Owens stole 32 bases for the White Sox. This was with a less then stellar BABIP (when considering his line drive and ground ball rates) which obviously affected his batting average and consequently his on base percentage.

Now, Owens is not going to fool anybody with game changing power or an outstanding on base percentage. While he is not terrible at taking a walk (he is slightly below league average in walks per strike out) Owens would much rather put his bat on the ball, which for a guy with his speed is not a terrible idea. However, when Juan Pierre is being taken with pick #110 (ESPN and Yahoo Average Draft Position), it becomes obvious who has the better value.

But let’s say you are waiting on steals, thinking ‘I’ll just take Taveras or Bourn later in the draft’. This isn’t a bad strategy and one that I would have considered before doing my homework, but again, you are going to be spending a pick in the top 190 to land one of these two. Conversely, Owens is available for nothing. You could, by all means, draft DL bound players like Schilling or Carpenter and pick Owens up once the season begins. If you do that, you’ll be thanking me in August when your team receives one of the best deadline players available.

Lastings Milledge

If you are like me, you probably prefer not filling your roster with one dimensional players. Although at times it is required, in certain leagues it definitely should be avoided. This leads me to Lastings Milledge. Here is a player whom at one point was compared very favorably to Delmon Young and has had a very similar professional career. Now, I am not suggesting that Milledge is going to have a better season then Young, rather, I am discussing the difference in value here.

Consider that Milledge is on average being taken with the 223^rd overall pick according to ESPN’s Average Draft Position (ADP) and is being taken with an unknown pick beyond #201 within Yahoo public leagues. Conversely, Delmon Young is being taken with picks #110 and 102 on ESPN and Yahoo respectively. However, Milledge is not only being overlooked in favor of Delmon Young, but also with Johnny Damon (145 and 130) and Aaron Rowand (140 and 156) as other 5 category outfielders.

Here is the average of the five projection systems on Fan Graphs have to say about these four players:
Name – R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG
Milledge – 47, 11, 46, 10, .270 (average 325 at bats)
Young – 64, 13, 79, 13, .291 (554 at bats)
Damon – 93, 13, 63, 19, .277 (536 at bats)
Rowand – 80, 17, 72, 9, .284 (545 at bats)

I understand that Milledge comes in looking a little shaky, but keep in mind that is with 325 at bats. If we average those stats over 545 at bats his numbers look like this – 79, 18, 77, 17 and .270. Overall, those rank as about the best numbers of the foursome. I do recognize that the numbers are not exact and they can definitely vary between 325 at bats and 545, but even if he is slightly worse then the other three, if he can be had some 80 picks later, why not?!?

Bill Hall

After Hall’s 2006 season, he was understandably a very high pick. Given his position flexibility, people figured the move to the outfield would only enhance his performance as it would be much less stressful on the then 28 year old. What people did not notice is that he had a dangerously unsustainable home run per fly ball rate. Couple that with a high ankle sprain that entirely derailed Hall’s season and one can be excused for drafting him in the top 80 (as per 3 Yahoo public league drafts I was involved in for the 2007 season). Consider his first half slugging percentage of .448 compared to his second half slugging percentage of .384.

One can expect Hall to have a superior season simply due to his move back to the infield and presumed health. Return Bill Hall’s home run per fly ball rate to his career average and there is no reason he shouldn’t sit around 25 home runs for the 2008 season.

Now, you may be suggesting that I am crazy to think that Hall will have the second best home run hitting season of his career. The problem is, in 2007 PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ projection system expected 28 home runs out of Hall. RotoAuthority’s Tim Dierkes expected 33 home runs.

Comparatively, Jermaine Dye is being taken with pick 114 within ESPN leagues. Burrell, Guillen, Ibanez and Cuddyer are all being taken in the top 200 as well. Can anyone reasonably suggest that those five are worth drafting and Hall isn’t?

Cody Ross

Simply put, everyone expect Ross to be a part time, platoon player, or to again suffer an injury. However, as I wrote earlier, Ross underwent a treatment to deal with his chronic groin problems. Thus, unless Ross is expected to platoon in Florida (which doesn’t seem likely), this should be the year Ross makes it past 500 at bats.

In 2007 Ross had one of those miraculous, unsustainable seasons. Had he not gotten injured, I wouldn’t be surprised if he only slugged another 5 to 8 home runs and saw his batting average drop 30 to 50 points. That still would have put him at 20 home runs with a .280 batting average in his first full time job. Not too shabby if you ask me.

Given the added experience, there is reason to be confident in Ross for 2008. The five projection systems on Fan Graphs expect the following:
Projection System – At Bats, R, HR, RBI, SB and AVG
Bill James – 287, 44, 14, 44, 3, .261
CHONE – 254, 12, 38, 38, 2, .264
Marcel – 293, 13, 44, 50, 3, .273
MINER – 259, 11, 36, 39, 2, .239
ZiPS – 326, 15, 49, 48, 2, .255
PECOTA – 272, 14, 41, 43, 3, .271

While simply doubling these statistics would be too simple of an exercise and not a very accurate projection, it is obvious that the forecasters are expecting similar results. But what if Ross manages to stay the course beyond 300 at bats up to 500 or 600? Is a line of 25 home runs, with 80 runs and RBIs and a .270 batting average that far fetched?

Let us continue with my ‘what if’ experiment. Consider where Andruw Jones (ESPN ADP-103 and Yahoo ADP-96), Vernon Wells (90 and 84), Jose Guillen (170 and NA), Nick Swisher (128 and 110) and Jason Bay (93 and 88) finished last season. Then consider that Ross is the same age or younger then each of the aforementioned names. While I anticipate Swisher to perform significantly better then he did in 2007, I also expected him to perform much better then he did leading INTO the 2007 season.

These are four outfielders who are going vastly under the radar. Not one of them will replace a #1 outfielder, but each of them will give you flexibility in the middle rounds to wait it out for equal or superior talent. Tomorrow at The Fantasy Baseball Generals I will write about another outfielder whom I think is a MUST for fantasy teams. And watch out for next week’s article on starting pitchers and relievers.

If you would like to contact Brandon to ask a question or simply challenge anything he has to say, feel free to email him at bheikoop@baseballdigestdaily.com.

Division by Division Preview - NL Central

Division by Division Preview

I’m calling it, right here, right now. The National League Central will pose zero threat to the other divisions in baseball. There is not a team in this division that should strike fear in the eyes of an opponent for a three game series, let alone in October. Last year, the division winning Cubs would have finished no better then 3^rd in any of the other divisions in baseball, doing so in a division where half of the teams finished with only 73 victories.

National League Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis struggled to field a healthy lineup in 2007 and they have started the 2008 season in similar fashion. Pujols is said to have a serious elbow issue (although his Spring does not represent this fact) and Carpenter is still shelved while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. However, this team is deep and plays in a division where there lacks any real dominant clubs.

The Cards pitching staff is the deepest in baseball. Although they lack a sure-thing legitimate star, each of starting five represent a quality arm. When you also consider the club will have Carpenter, Mulder and Clement back eventually, the club has plenty of options.

Conversely, the bullpen is one that is tough to get excited about. There really isn’t an arm that is particularly good, but as a collection, they are probably good enough. Adding an arm at some point in this season is as obvious of a statement as I will ever make.

Offensively, this is the best lineup the Cards have rolled out there in recent memory. Pujols finally has a power bat to protect him in the lineup, and the deep, talented and young outfield gives promise that this team will be able to put up some crooked numbers.

Major Addition: Lohse and Clement – These two will help solidify the Cards rotation, adding experience and depth. Consider the pitchers the Cards would be throwing out there until Carpenter and Mulder are healthy and tell me this duo isn’t the biggest acquisition.

Major Subtraction: Troy Percival – Kind of the reverse logic of Lohse and Clement, losing Percival will prove as a major hit to their bullpen.

Breakout Candidate: Brian Barton – If the former Indian is given an opportunity, which seems likely, he will make the Tribe pay for not giving him a real shot. Fact is, anyone with that strong of an on base percentage in the minors (.416) is doing something right at the dish.

2. Milwaukee Brewers

What a collection of young talent! The Brew crew has two formidable MVP candidates and others on the verge of breaking out. The rotation and bullpen are both deep and strong. Another thing people cannot underestimate is the strides they will make defensively. Consider in 2007 that Ryan Braun made a spectacular 26 errors, his replacement, Bill Hall, made 7 fewer in 2006 as a short stop and third basemen (while playing in more games). Furthermore, consider the addition of Mike Cameron, one of the best center fielders in the majors. Milwaukee ranked 25^th in the majors in Defensive Zone Efficiency (a Baseball Prospectus statistic), at worst, the team will be in the top 20.

The bullpen appears to be one of the best, on paper that is. However, if there are any slip ups from Gagne or Turnbow, they have strong core behind them with Torres and Riske. Having that many pitchers with the track record of a closer and the ability to be a strong stopper is something that no other team has. Add in further depth, and as I will mention, run-offs form the rotation, this pen is ready for a long Summer’s battle.

Possessing a rotation that is as young and deep as the one the Brewer’s own is incredible. Had the team not shelled out big bucks for Suppan prior to last season, I would allow the argument that they have the best five in the majors. Alas, they did, and no matter how he performs, Suppan will get the ball every fifth day. Aside from that, Parra (whom I am the biggest supporter of) and Gallardo will give Central team’s nightmares all season long. Unfortunately, I believe Parra will begin the year in the bullpen and have a Liriano-like start to his career.

Young and deep, am I repeating myself? With a batting lineup full of potent weapons, the Brewers are going to out slug most teams in the National League. In fact, they may very well come close to performing at the level of an American League team. They have offensive weapons all over the diamond and only poor plate discipline can keep this club from making a serious impact in 2008.

Major Addition: Mike Cameron – The trickle down effect that Cameron will have defensively will presumably go unnoticed, although it shouldn’t. It will be the offensive leadership that Cameron will bring to the top of the batting order.

Major Subtraction: Johnny Estrada – Apparently I have a man-crush on Johnny, but I hate the fact that they replaced him with Kendall. Maybe for team chemistry it will make a difference, but Kendall is absolutely dreadful at all aspects of the game.

Breakout Candidate: Manny Parra – No, he is not even a candidate. Manny is my LOCK to breakout. Even before he was having a downright dominating Spring, I wrote about how much I expected out of the kid in 2008. That has not changed at all; in fact, he is starting to raise eyebrows all over now.

3. Chicago Cubs

Shouldn’t last years division winners who improved their team be higher on this list? Sure, you can put them there. But the fact is, I’m not sold on their rotation and I worry about injuries again getting the better of this team.

The bullpen should again be strong for the Cubs as they have three pitchers who are all capable of shutting the door at any point and time. Injuries must be a concern as Howry is getting up there in age and Wood is Wood (or some sort of other very brittle fiber).

Like the Brewer and Cardinals, the Cubs have depth in the starting rotation, which will result in either a trade, or a simple shuffling of arms. The problem, it doesn’t look as though the Cubs have that every fifth day ace. Most would have agreed that Zambrano was it entering 2007, but Rich Hill appears to be the better bet in 2008. However, I worry about Hills durability, as he seems to have issues going deep into games.

Offensively, the Cubs are stacked. But they are also getting up there in age and are quite brittle. Only one player played in 150 or more games in 2007. In addition to that, the club is below average in getting on base. The addition of Fukudome will undoubtedly assist in that area, but coming off of elbow surgery at age 31 is not the most appealing formula in my opinion.

Major Addition: Kosuke Fukudome – Right field has not been the definition of stability for the Cubs over the last few years. However, Fukudome’s Japanese League numbers look eerily similar to that of Kaz Matsui. Either way, the addition should make a noticeable improvement to the Cubs.

Major Subtraction: Passing of Time – While not old, this team has shown its age in recent years with the amount of games missed.

Breakout Candidate: Carlos Marmol – This kid technically broke out in 2007, but I believe this is the year he truly puts his name on the map. The Cubs would have been served well in bringing in a veteran closer to mentor Marmol.

4. Cincinnati Reds

I actually REALLY like this team. I think they have a talented and deep rotation that is capable of big things. They of course have some outstanding power with an interesting core of youth on both sides of the ball. If this team is managed correctly (which is the same burning question everyone is asking) the Reds could easily be fighting it out with the Brewers for second in the division.

As mentioned, the rotation is talented and deep. It also has a great deal of youth on its side, which bodes well for potential breakouts. Harang and Arroyo will be top of the rotation innings eaters who will put up above league average numbers (at least combined). The wildcards are in the remainder of the rotation where the future of the Reds organization will prove whether or not they are for real. Cueto has been brilliant thus far in spring training, Volquez has been better then expected and Bailey is still trying to adjust to the majors. Currently, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has them ranked Volquez, Cueto and Bailey, so it will be interesting to see how things pan out, although it is just as likely that all three do not make the Opening Day rotation as even one or two do. This is Dusty’s team after all.

The bullpen will get a substantial boost with the arrival of Francisco “That’s fun to say!” Cordero. This unit is fairly deep with a nice amount of options to set up Cordero. I personally look for Majewski to take over a primary set up role with the club and to prove his worth after the Reds paid a lot to bring him to Cincinnati in 2006. With that said the Reds have their best bullpen in years and will finally have no issues in handing a lead to it. Although, this is Dusty’s team!

Offensively, this club has as much power as anyone in the league. The most impressive part of that is how young they are. In fact, outside of Griffey Jr. the Reds have a lineup of hitters whom are still in their primes. If you also consider super-prospect Jay Bruce, the Reds are in perfect condition for some very positive progress. The most interesting battle going on for the Reds this season is going on between Freel and Dusty. It will be fun to see what trades the Reds make this season in an attempt to win it all.

Major Addition: Francisco Cordero – Even if Francisco is not the closer he is being paid to be, the affect he will have on the rest of the bullpen will make him worth every penny.

Major Subtraction: Josh Hamilton – By default, he is the Red’s biggest loss. Admittedly, the Reds will benefit more from trading away Hamilton, then if they would have kept him around. That said, with Griffey’s age and Dunn’s expiring contract, the Reds may have been better served biting the bullet this season given the ballpark they play in.

Breakout Candidate: Edinson Volquez – While most are hot on Cueto breaking camp with the team or feel this is the year for Encarnacion (I am among them), I feel Volquez is going to go under the radar and have a very surprising season for the Reds. In fact, I’m thinking he’ll have a Fuasto Carmona like impact.

5. Houston Astros

If one wanted to make an argument that the ‘Stros is built in the same way that the Cubs are, I would not debate that person. Truth be told, I considered ranking the Astros as the forth best team in the division, with the Cubs being fifth and the Reds jumping to third. Alas, I cannot dodge a wrench. That said the Astros are old, REAL old, and weak defensively, REAL weak.

The pitching staff is one of the worst in the majors. They have an ace in Roy Oswalt, and that is essentially it. The remainder of their players can, at best, be defined as spare parts and would most likely have a tough time making the rotation of any other ball club. Consider for a moment, the Astros’ third best starter, Shawn Chacon. I personally like Chacon, but for some reason, the Astros prefer Woody Williams. I believe that is enough said.

The bullpen is no better then it was in 2007. Swapping Lidge for Valverde was a parallel move, where the front office must have thought that the quantity of saves a reliever accumulates is entirely a reflection of their ability. Similarly, the Astros figured swapping with Qualls and Geary would make their team better-I don’t see it.

Offensively, there is a lot to like about the Astros lineup. However, this is an old club with most of the players exiting their prime. While Bourn and Pence offer some hope, neither are capable of carrying this lineup if age catches up to the stars. Additionally, I am not sold on Towles having much of an impact and I wonder how well a rookie catcher (a 24 year old at that) can organize and handle a pitching staff.

Major Addition: Michael Bourn – As much as I like Miguel Tejada’s bat, I worry that the difference between him and Everett defensively is going to take away everything that Miguel’s bat adds. With that said Michael Bourn should be an offensive catalyst for the Astros as he will take over the role in the lineup that was previously held by Craig Biggio.

Major Subtraction: Adam Everett – Aaron Gleeman wrote an outstanding piece on Everett after the Twins signed him to a one year deal in December. I am in no place to argue against this. Conclusion, the Astros pitching staff will miss Everett.

Breakout Candidate: Michael Bourn – After never a career as a backup and a minor leaguer, Bourn will finally get his shot at 600 at bats for the Astros. Considering there is next to nothing behind him, no matter how terrible he plays, he will get a lot of at bats. I anticipate Bourn to be among the league leaders in steals, accomplishing little else.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are still 4 to 5 years from being truly competitive, not only within the division, but in baseball as a whole. Unfortunately, the work that has been done to the team to this point will be done in vain as essentially every player on the current 25 man roster will not be with the team when they are competitive. Then why haven’t they made trades of players whom are at essentially their peak values-I’m looking at you Freddy Sanchez. If you think about it, are 12,000 fans really purchasing tickets to see Sanchez? Or maybe they are buying those tickets to see a 68 win team that they wouldn’t support a 58 win team? Clean house, and start from scratch.

The rotation is young and talented. However, they are neither young enough nor good enough to carry this team into being a contender for years to come. I wouldn’t expect the Pirates to start shipping off Snell, Gorzelanny and Maholm already, but it wouldn’t hurt to start sending out feelers.

The bullpen, like the rotation, has a fair amount of promise. It is both young and talented. However, the team will not have many leads to protect and will consequently be using quality arms in meaningless situations. This is another situation where the team should begin to look four or five years down the road rather then a year or two.

I can not sit here and write about the Pirates lineup without again mentioning that the club really should be without half of the players they are currently going out there with. In fact, I am still scratching my head as to why the club did not roll the dice on Dallas McPherson. That said, this lineup is too weak top to bottom for an opponent to at all worry about facing them. In fact, this lineup is the equivalent of Mike Piazza’s arm.

Major Addition: None – This is not a bad thing though. Consider the free agent or trades the Pirates have made in recent years that were supposed to get them into the playoffs. Now consider how terrible those moves were and the fact that they didn’t even come close to working out. Not making a move was the best move to make.

Major Subtraction: None – Again, the club kept everyone that wasn’t a free agent. Although they would have been better served making some trades, letting Chacon and Armas walk was an outstanding (and obvious) decision.

Breakout Candidate: Capps/Snell – Both players already technically broke out. However, both still have a lot of room to grow. According to Dave Rouleau, Ian has ditched two of the pitches that allowed for him to have such success in the minors. Look for Snell to slowly work those pitches back into his repertoire and take some major steps forward. Capps, on the other hand, got his first taste at closing in the bigs logging 18 saves. Given the full time role at closing in 2008, maybe he can pile up close to 40 saves and become a trade target of the Astros.

Division by Division Preview - AL Central

Division by Division Preview

This will be, as you might be able to guess, a six part series. I will carefully look at each major league division, discussing the moves they made and predicting where they will finish in the coming season. Additionally, I will discuss key additions and loses as well as briefly mention a potential breakout candidate. I will do my best to remove any biases, although I cannot promise anything! Let’s kick it off with the AL Central.

AL Central

I decided to begin with the AL Central as I am an Indians fan, and obviously I have more interest in what goes on in that division then I do around the rest of the league. Without strain, I can name too many players and prospects within this division. I worry about meaningless moves and transactions and wonder when Ernie Young will sign with the Minnesota Twins, making him the ultimate ‘journey-man’.

1. Cleveland Indians

As obvious of a homer pick as there is, but how often do we hear ‘Champs until proven otherwise’? With that, the youth of this ball club allows for consistency in this, the second of their back to back years as champions of the American League Central.

The rotation is set with two bona fide number ones and depth in the Minors in the ‘When’s he going to break out’ Adam Miller and my personal favorite Chuck Lofgren. No matter which pitcher wins the three horse race for the final spot in the rotation, the Indians are as deep as any club in terms of starting pitching.

Bullpens are often vulnerable, and the Indians have been an epic display of that. Over the last three seasons, the Indians have finished 1^st, 24^th and 6^th in terms of team bullpen ERA. While they bring in essentially the same crew as they had in 2007 there really is no telling what type of season the unit will have. Strangely, the biggest move Mark Shapiro made for his Indians this off season was in adding to the bullpen. Not a terrible move, however I would have preferred to see the unit stay entirely intact and giving Jensen Lewis a more prominent role.

While the bullpen is annually inconsistent, the hitters have been 7^th, 2^nd and 8^th in the Majors in terms of runs scored. 2008 should be another strong season for the hitters, in one I am predicting as the best of the last three years. Travis Hafner may not return to being the fierce hitter he was in the final two years of his 20s, but he will nonetheless be a better hitter then he was in 2007. The Michaels/Dellucci platoon begins the season healthy and could very well be the best left field in the American League. The 2008 season also bids farewell to epic failures Josh Barfield and Trot Nixon in favor of Asdrubal Cabrera and Franklin Gutierrez. Outside of that, the youth alone should remain course, or even improve from the levels they reached in 2007.

Major Additions: Masahide Kobayashi – As I mentioned, I would have been happier without this deal. If Masa can provide quality innings and add depth to an already deep bullpen, I’ll change my mind.

Major Subtraction: None!

Breakout Candidate: Franklin Gutierrez – The kid has loads of talent and finally began to show that his tools were legit. Thirteen homers in fewer then 300 at bats with a sustainable home run per fly ball rate; I am expecting Frankie to challenge 30HR in 2008 with enough at bats.

2. Chicago White Sox

What do you do when your team has the third worst bullpen in all of the major leagues? You go out and bring in two of the best relievers on the free agent market, not caring that you over paid or are stuck with players on the downside of their careers for longer then you should. This, coming two seasons after the club put out the forth best bullpen which helped guide the team to winning the World Series.

Nobody is going to confuse the White Sox with having a dominant starting rotation, but in this division, it’s sadly the second best unit that will rely on bounce back and breakout seasons to be just good enough for this potent offensive lineup. Word has it Jose Contreras’ struggles in 2007 were due in part to a nasty divorce which occurred a few days before the start of the season.

As mentioned the bullpen was awful in 2007, although that was to be expected given the riffraff they had manning key roles. The additions of Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink should add stability to what now looks like team strength. Consider this, if the Indians and White Sox swapped places in bullpen earned runs, the Chi Sox would have ended up allowing nearly 20 fewer runs on the season.

Offensively, the Sox will be potent. Hoping for a healthy season from Thome, a bounce back year from Konerko and Dye, and the additions of Swisher and Cabrera, there is little reason to believe White Sox will not come closer to their 2006 production then that of 2007.

Major Additions: Nick Swisher – Moving from a terrible hitter’s park to an outstanding one, Swisher is a guy who I am anticipating major things from. Add to the fact that he will now have outstanding protection, this is the year Swisher makes Billy Beane look smart.

Major Subtraction: Jon Garland – I am not a huge fan of Garland, but there is no denying his value to a major league ball club. He eats innings and does it with fairly solid numbers.

Breakout Candidate: Nick Swisher – Again, I know! But if he jumps into the 40+ home run club, as I anticipate, there is no reason he won’t be classified as breaking out.

3. Detroit Tigers

I don’t care what anyone says, you tear apart your farm system and make additions to the place you were the strongest is NOT how you win a championship. This team is old and has too many players that had career and unsustainable seasons. True they suffered some key injuries, but when you field a team with that many 30 year olds, it is to be expected, no? The club has zero depth at any spot and the farm system is so weakened that they have very few chips to play with. Essentially, any player this club wants to go after, the Indians can block if they feel the urge to do so.

What is to like about the rotation? Verlander is an ace, despite my proclamation that Sowers was the superior youngster in 2006. However, he has thrown a lot of high leverage innings, and will have absolutely no help from the bullpen this year. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points, Verlander was the 9^th most abused pitcher in 2007. Given his age and the stress he will put on his arm this season, whoever is banking on him putting up career highs is better off placing their dollars on a 16 seed beating a 1 seed in the tournament this weekend. Outside of that, Willis may be able to get by the first time or two through the American League, but with consistent eyes on him, the hitters will adjust as they did in the Senior Circuit. In addition to all of this, the Tigers have an embarrassing assembly of ‘fill ins’, in fact, the team is so shallow, super prospect Rick Porcello will probably play an important role with the club at some point in the 2008 season.

The bullpen is in even worse shape. With injuries to Zumaya and Rodney, Dombrowski is scratching for any available help. He has very few chips left, so it is unlikely a deal can be made and the club is just going to have to suck it up until their two fire ballers are healthy. In essence, the Tigers will have to score to win games as they will be in a situation where no lead is safe.

Nobody in the majors has the offensive lineup that the Tigers do on paper. In terms of team performance, I anticipate league average or worse statistics from all but three positions. This will be due to a great deal of regression, age and overall lack of talent. Having zero depth, as mentioned, is going to be what kills this clubs in 2008.

Major Addition: Francisco Cruceta! Kidding. Obviously it is Miguel Cabrera. I wonder how he will adjust to playing in the American League as well as playing in meaningful games. However, he’s still one of the best hitters in the Majors, so he’ll eventually catch on.

Major Subtraction: Jair Jurrjens – While Jair did not have a great amount of influence on the Tigers in 2007, his capable ability to be the sixth starter will definitely be felt this season. Having Renteria aboard is nice, but not all that important, especially when you consider his age and previous American League experience.

Breakout Candidate: Rick Porcello – He has zero expectations to contribute to the big league club, but if the Tigers are going to be successful this season, they are going to need his arm eventually.

4. Kansas City Royals

Reviewing the Royals, I could simply write about breakout candidates and leave it at that. The club is so loaded with young talent that the window for the Indians, Sox and Tigers will close sooner then anyone expected. I’ve never been to Kansas City, but I imagine there is a buzz about this club for this season. Not so much because they are going to make a run at the World Series, but because the team has a solid foundation looking forward.

The Royals have a formidable rotation that is beginning to come into its own. They will not absolutely dominate any one club for a series, but they will pitch well enough to allow the hitters and young bullpen to win a few games they shouldn’t.

As mentioned, the club has a young bullpen that is not outstanding, but is far from terrible. If I had a choice of Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers pen for 2008 or Alex Gordon and the Royals bullpen, I would really have to be convinced Gordon is not going to take any steps further in 2008.

Speaking of steps forward, the Royals have a nice collection of young and old gathered for the 2008 season. Billy Butler is a player whom I anticipate will take Prince Fielder-like progress this year and the outfield is talented and deep. With any luck, the Royals will have an average offensive squad this season. With a lot of luck, they are above average.

Major Addition: Alberto Callaspo – Here is a young hitter whom I adore. The Royals will allow him to come off the bench to start the season, but it will be only a matter of time before Grudz is traded. Callaspo will not set the world on fire in 2008, but this was an outstanding addition and one that will pay dividends for years to come.

Major Subtraction: David Riske – It was a shame that the Royals didn’t trade Riske last season, but they managed to grab a supplemental first round pick, which is presumably more then would have gotten for Riske anyways.

Breakout Candidate: Zach Grienke – I saw Grienke face off against Roy Halladay in one of the quickest games in Blue Jays history. At the time, he was a youngster whom I wasn’t entirely thrilled with. In 2007, Grienke came out of the bullpen and was suddenly throwing darts! I recall seeing his fastball reach 98mph on one occasion while still displaying the incredible control he was known for coming through the system. Watch out if his September is a sign of things to come.

5. Minnesota Twins

Unlike most, I actually expect big things out of the Twins in 2008. By big I mean for them to be only a handful of loses from third place. Consider the major loses from the 2007 team: Silva, Santana and Hunter. In their place: Hernandez, Liriano and Young. By no means am I going to argue that the second trio is on par with the first, but I think the difference will not be as great as one might expect.

The rotation should be fine, but not outstanding. If Liriano can return to his old form, the starting five should be essentially the same as they were in 2007 with a little more potential in the form of Humber. The Tommy John survivor is having an outstanding Spring and is making his case to be on the Opening Day roster. Rumor has it that Bonser is back in shape-or at least in better shape and Hernandez will give them a quality veteran presence and an innings eater.

Somehow, someway, the Twins have found a way to develop outstanding arm after arm for the bullpen. The unit is deep and talented. Any and every lead is safe. There aren’t enough good things one can say about this pen.

Offensively, I expect a better season then 2007. Both Morneau and Mauer had weak showings-for them-which I don’t expect to be repeated this year. Young is too young and too talented to not have a quality season, I expect big things! And the rest of the lineup should see decent improvements. Essentially, what happened in 2007 will be the minimum to expect in 2008.

Major Addition: Francisco Liriano – Obviously they didn’t ADD him, but they didn’t have him last season. As Liriano goes, so go the Twins. This is not just a one time thing; Liriano is the future of the Twins. He also happens to be the present.

Major Subtraction: Carlos Silva – Wait for it, wait for it…There it is! Yes, Carlos Silva. Even though they replaced him with his Cuban clone, they lost him for nothing. Whereas with Santana, I don’t expect the amount of wins (WSAB) they lost, to be much more then what they are gaining in Young and Humber.

Breakout Candidate: Mike Lamb – His previous American League numbers are not incredible, but they are sufficient. He is 32 years old and just now being given a full time job. Batting low in the order, Lamb shouldn’t have a lot of pressure on him to perform, so really anything will be better then what the Twins got from Punto for 108 games in 2007.

Fantasy Friday vol. 3 - Corner Infielders

Fantasy Friday's will no longer be published at Baseball Digest Daily.

Corner Infielders – Ample Opportunities at Acquiring Value

In this weeks Fantasy Friday, I will discuss a few corner infielders who are currently being undervalued in drafts. This does come with a warning however, as the drop off from the top 10 first basemen to the rest of the pack is substantial. That said there is no reason why one cannot find this year’s Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez or Carlos Pena. I will also state that it took me about an hour to write that introduction as I am avoiding work I need to do for school and listening to Michael Ian Black.

First Base

First Base is traditionally a very deep position and the 2008 season is no exception. Looking at Yahoos expert rankings there are 15 legitimate options, and while Nick Swisher is the guy I am going to target in drafts, he is not one of the players I intend to talk about. The young first basemen I will advocate drafting are all players whom I believe what people are expecting/projecting of them, will come as their worst case scenario. However, keep in mind that I am by no means suggesting that these players be atop of ones first basemen rankings; rather, I am suggesting that these are players whom are excellent options for ones corner infield or utility slots.

James Loney has a solid minor league resume and at 24, has plenty of room to develop. Although most expect Loney to have minimal power, the pop that he displayed in his 2007 Major League season display to me that he may simply be a late bloomer in that department. That being said let us take a look at what the projection systems have to say (courtesy of FanGraphs):

Bill James: .292 with 13HR
CHONE: .284 with 13HR
Marcel: .315 with 14HR
MINER: .291 with 11HR
ZiPS: .296 with 16HR

Each of the five projection systems mentioned anticipate Loney to rack up a greater number of at bats in the real Los Angeles in 2008 then he did in 2007, so why the modest power totals? It appears obvious that each projection system is taking into account Loney’s minor league numbers where he has a .430 slugging percentage. In fact, with an average of .458, the projection systems suggest that what Loney has accomplished in 446 major league at bats is negated by how he performed in 2203 minor league at bats.

However, I see a different story. Although Loney has benefited from playing most of his minor league career in hitters parks and Dodger Stadium ranks as a pitchers park (courtesy First Inning) I anticipate that Loney’s development in the power department will happen regardless of location. That said, and looking at Loney’s batted ball data, it doesn’t appear as though he has done anything at the Major League level that is unsustainable. Thus, expecting 25HR out of Loney coupled with an excellent average, this is a player that will exceed expectations and rank in the Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Morneau range.

There are two other young first basemen that I anticipate will exceed expectations and take a major step forward in their professional development: Ryan Garko and Billy Butler.

Garko is one of my all-time favorite players and the strides he took in 2007 were very impressive although not out of line with his minor league career. That being said I still caution drafting Garko as his at bats will be limited in Cleveland. Consider that Victor Martinez will receive starts at first base, any time Paul Byrd is pitching combined with Travis Hafner receiving the majority of the starts at first during inter league play, Garko will be hard pressed to improve on the at bat total he accumulated in 2007. However, if one were to manage their roster intelligently, they could very well receive 20HR from Garko in 130 games, meaning another 5-7 from spot starts is not entirely out of the question.

Billy Butler, like Garko and Loney, has limited power potential. Although he is the youngest of the trio, leading me to believe his current upside is substantially higher then the others. As a full time first basemen, Butler should provide a team with an outstanding average but low power numbers. John Sickels asserts that a minor change in his approach at the plate may allow Butler to be an annual 30HR hitter at the cost of his batting average-which some believe is of future Batting Title caliber.

Each of the aforementioned first basemen has extraordinary amounts of potential. For Butler and Loney, they will be given a full time job and 600+ plate appearances to help a fantasy team. I do not advocate waiting to fill your first base slot with one of these three, however if you are feeling as though you are forced to reach for a Morneau or Lee, feel free to take advantage of a bargain at another position, waiting it out on one of these three whom I would rank accordingly: Loney, Butler, Garko.

Third Base

Third base appears to be as deep as ever entering the 2008 season, so deep in fact, that the player I intend to talk about was a player I was hardly considering drafting prior to writing this column. There are also a litany of quality youngsters whom are just waiting to break out. In fact, there are so many quality youngsters, that the values of an Alex Rodriguez or David Wright are negatively affected.

Troy Glaus, the old and oft-injured third basemen who will return to the National League in 2008 after two strong seasons in Toronto. The move to the National League alone should help improve Glaus’ numbers, not to mention the incredible protection he will receive from Albert Pujols. Thus, if Glaus can stay healthy, he should have a spectacular 2008 season and be incredibly undervalued. Given that according to Yahoos average draft position, Glaus is being taken as the 15^th third basemen.

However, as mentioned, Glaus needs to remain healthy, something he has struggled with since 2002. That said the projection systems are split upon whether or not Glaus has another quality season left in him. They do however; believe that Glaus does not have much of a chance at staying healthy.

In 2007, Glaus had one injury that crept up on him in April and stuck around until he underwent season ending surgery in September. This injury placed him on the disabled list and continually flared up throughout the season sapping Glaus of his the power he is most well known for.

However, it sounds as if Glaus’ treatments were a success and there hasn’t been any word the injury reoccurring. The switch out of the SkyDome should also benefit Glaus as he will no longer be playing his home games on field turf-in fact, Glaus won’t have to play a single game on a surface other then natural grass in 2008.

With all of that said, give Glaus 130 games in the National League, and there is little doubt in my mind that he will produce more then 30 home runs, outstanding RBI numbers, with the typical Glaus batting average. In other words, I feel Glaus is capable of being a top five third basemen for fantasy managers.

As I mentioned, there is a long list of quality third basemen. With that, a manager needs to sort through all the talent to not only grab the best value, but also the best player. There are two youngsters who I am absolutely enamored with; two players who I feel as though will outperform the expectations of everyone.

Kevin Kouzmanoff turned it on at the end of the 2007 season enough so for me to make the following bold prediction: .310, 25 and 95, something that not one of the projection systems agrees with. However, with how Kouzmanoff has performed throughout his minor league career, coupled with the strides he took as a full time player last year, I feel as though he is capable of Chipper Jones or Garret Atkins type numbers. At 160 picks later, I would define that as value.

Beyond Kouzmanoff is a player whom is an annual fantasy sweetheart. Year after year, experts are predicting Edwin Encarnacion to take the step into becoming a legitimate fantasy contributor. For this season, I am going to go out there and say that 2008 will be the year for the 25 year old to break out.

Even though the projection systems have begun to sour on Encarnacion, I believe that in that ballpark, on that team, he is capable of big things with a ceiling just shy of Miguel Cabrera.

The list of options at both first and third base appear limitless. I could write and add on another five to seven hitters whom I feel will not only exceed expectations, but perform at a high level.

If you would like to contact Brandon to ask a question or simply challenge anything he has to say, feel free to email him at bheikoop@baseballdigestdaily.com.

I'm Better Than Oasis

I always thought this song by INXS said "We're better than Oasis". In fact, I imagine if INXS could do it all over, they would probably change their lyrics to such. Now this is no commentary on the state of Pop or which group is better, in fairness, both groups have a terribly negative affect on my cerebellum.

Anyways, since INXS couldn't man up and say it, I'm going too...

And that is why The Fantasy Baseball Generals posed the following question to myself as well as the other authors of the website: "Is A-Rod an unquestioned number one overall pick?"

I concluded that Alex Rodriguez is not only NOT the unquestioned number one overall pick, but in fact, I wouldn't even take him with my 2nd or 3rd overall pick. Keep in mind, this does differ in a variety of leagues, but here is what I said at FBG:

Personally, I would go with (Jose) Reyes. The guy will single handedly push you to the top of the pack in steals, so much so, that the rest of the draft you can focus on the 'cheaper' and easier to acquire stats, like home runs. While teams are scraping the bottom of the barrel to team one dimensional hitters Kaz Matsui and Michael Bourn, you will already be set and able to take chances on players with high ceilings. The fact that Reyes is still only 25 years old is enough evidence that he is a potential breakout candidate and could post career highs in every category. Also, when you couple this with position eligibility and scarcity, I cannot think of a better player to draft. I would rank the top five as follows: Reyes, Wright, Howard, Rodriguez and Rollins.

Another reason, which I will cover in this weeks Fantasy Fridays (or last weeks, however you want to look at it), is how deep third base is. In a recent draft I performed in over the weekend-alright, missed-I managed to grab Troy Glaus off of free agents, not even having to use my waiver slot. While the difference between Rodriguez and Glaus is admittedly large, the difference between Reyes and Khalil Greene is even more substantial.

Let's see what the forecast systems say (Average of Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, MINER and ZiPS courtesy of Fan Graphs):
Rodriguez - 40HR, 116 Runs, 124 RBIs, 17 Steals with a .296 batting average.
Greene - 21 HR, 71 Runs, 78 RBIs, 5 Steals with a .253 batting average.
Total - 61 HR, 187 Runs, 202 RBIs, 22 Steals with a .275 batting average.
Glaus - 24 HR, 73 Runs, 76 RBIs, 2 Steals with a .255 batting average.
Reyes - 13 HR, 116 Runs, 69 RBIs, 66 Steals with a .291 batting average.
Total - 37 HR, 189 Runs, 145 RBIs, 68 Steals with a .273 batting average.

While looking at these numbers may not sell you, Team Rodriguez now is required to make up 46 steals. If we look at 2007 statistics, we see that only 5 others racked up more then 46 steals. Where as the deviation in home runs (24) saw 52 hitters approach that total.

Also keep in mind, that the projection systems anticipate Glaus to hit as if he was hurt AND for him to suffer another injury. I do not anticipate either scenario creeping up on him in 2008.

A Preview of Things to Come....

With the baseball season just around the corner, I figure it is a good time to get things organized and present you with a plan of action going forward.

First, the third issue of Fantasy Fridays should be up at Baseball Digest Daily in a day or so. I will also make sure that my response to BDD's Chatter from the Bleachers are in on time and linked here, with a little further explanation.

Additionally, the second Take a Chance on Me article will be up at The Fantasy Baseball Generals shortly. Also at FBG, each of the writers will be involved in a round table discussion concerning all things fantasy. I'm excited for the first edition to be posted, which should occur in the next couple of days.

However, with that, it has gotten be away from, well, what enabled me the opportunities to write for two great websites. And that is writing articles for The Outsiders Look. That said, I will keep on track and begin writing with regularity here. Up next will be division by division previews where I will take a look at each club, what they did during the off season and my bold predictions for 2008.

Once the season has started I will have two additional series' to add to my current lineup of Fantasy Fridays and Take a Chance on Me. The first, will come out on Mondays and focus on all things in the Minor Leagues. I will pick a player of the week, as well as discussing each major league farm system-a week by week review. The next article will be a return of my Under the Radar column, where I will take a look at happenings around the league that went, you guessed it, 'under the radar'.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy.

Fantasy Friday vol. 2 - Middle Infeilders

Hopefully this post is slightly less long winded then the last. You will have to excuse me though, as I was attempting to explain to the reader why you should take (and expect similar numbers) out of a player in round 20 or beyond then a player taken in the 5th thru 7th rounds. Thus, I will try to make this article slightly more tolerable in terms of length.

As I visited in my last article, the name of the game is value. This should be a mantra throughout fantasy and sports in general, but as an owner of a team, you should do your best to get the best return on your 'dollar'. In terms of fantasy drafts, that dollar is draft selections. Suggesting, if you can pick up a player at a later point in the draft, whom you are confident will perform at the same or better level then a player picked higher in the draft, there is an obvious choice to make.

This article will focus on middle infielders of that caliber.

Second Base
For me personally, I am picky with what I get out of my middle infielders. Given that power is traditionally over priced from these positions, I typically shoot for players with speed as well as the ability to get on base and drive in runs. So ideally, a lead off or #2 hitter from the American League. That is not a rule of thumb, it just seems to be rather traditional.

The first second basemen I want to take a look at is Rickie Weeks. Weeks, like Navarro, had a tough go at the 2007 season, however he did do something things well. His power numbers began to develop, his walk rate was as good as it ever has been and he was very successful in swiping bases. Some may be worried about Weeks' propensity to miss time-whether through injury or demotion-or his low batting average, but in this case, I'm willing to roll the dice.

...To read more about my middle infield sleepers, check out my most recent article at Baseball Digest Daily.

Short Stop
Sifting through the short stop rankings, I can't help but think how shallow this group is. The top tier-whom Will Carroll recently tabbed as possibly "as talented as the Jeter, Rodriguez, Garciaparra group of a decade ago"-are miles ahead of those immediately behind them. In fact, of the consensus top 10, only Tejada appears to be bargain as he is being drafted at the end of the 6th round in Yahoo leagues. That said, Tejada is a guy I would target in the 7th round and if it didn't work out, I would shift to Plan B. In fact, Plan B is a guy I want on my roster no matter what.

That said, I introduce Plan B to you. Felipe Lopez, I cannot believe you are yet to have your 28th birthday. I know that you are thinking, 'Why Lopez?' That is perfectly reasonable as the guy had a miserable season in 2007. However, when looking a little closer, there are things that stand out to help explain what may have been the problem and which could go towards explaining why I have him as targeted short stop in 2008 drafts.

...To read more about my middle infield sleepers, check out my most recent article at Baseball Digest Daily.


If you would like to contact me to ask a question or simply challenge anything I have to say, feel free to email me at bheikoop@baseballdigestdaily.com.

The Delay Will not be Televised

Consider, if you may, a delay of game and a rain delay. Why is it that one is shown and the other is bogged down with replays of the worst made for TV movies there is? To be honest, the station that flips to this terrible replay of The Babysitter's Seduction is going to lose me in 35 seconds (Keri Russell was in that made for TV movie), had they instead shown a repeat of TWIB, or even had their TV commentator's spar with the Radio commentator's I would be saved from doing anything else. Alas, in football they will talk about how the team is 7 for 64 in 3rd and long situations and baseball digresses to made for TV movies.

My delay in posts has not been entirely my fault. True, I have not made an original for The Outsiders Look post in a very long time, however, I have been busy writing. Ironically, even with the lack of writing I have done for this, another website has asked me to come aboard and be a contributor for it. Obviously I graciously accepted.

The Fantasy Baseball Generals is a fantasy baseball site (I'm not a fan of the term blog) which does, in my opinion, the best job at covering fantasy baseball from the perspective of the fantasy baseball player. The authors at The Fantasy Baseball Generals are not experts nor are they fan persuaded nor beat writers, simply they are fantasy baseball players, covering fantasy baseball.

In my first article for The Fantasy Baseball Generals, I write about two, very under the radar players to consider for your fantasy drafts. I intend to do so on a weekly basis, if not more frequently, where I will give suggestions as to the players that one should consider at the very end of the draft. Check out Take a Chance on Me.